Progress in the ecology and conservation of giant pandas

Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) conservation is a possible success story in the making. If extinction of this iconic endangered species can be avoided, the species will become a showcase program for the Chinese government and its collaborators. We reviewed the major advancements in ecological science for the giant panda, examining how these advancements have contributed to panda conservation. Pandas’ morphological and behavioral adaptations to a diet of bamboo, which bear strong influence on movement ecology, have been well studied, providing knowledge to guide management actions ranging from reserve design to climate change mitigation. Foraging ecology has also provided essential information used in the creation of landscape models of panda habitat. Because habitat loss and fragmentation are major drivers of the panda population decline, efforts have been made to help identify core habitat areas, establish where habitat corridors are needed, and prioritize areas for protection and restoration. Thus, habitat models have provided guidance for the Chinese governments’ creation of 67 protected areas. Behavioral research has revealed a complex and efficient communication system and documented the need for protection of habitat that serves as a communication platform for bringing the sexes together for mating. Further research shows that den sites in old‐growth forests may be a limiting resource, indicating potential value in providing alternative den sites for rearing offspring. Advancements in molecular ecology have been revolutionary and have been applied to population census, determining population structure and genetic diversity, evaluating connectivity following habitat fragmentation, and understanding dispersal patterns. These advancements form a foundation for increasing the application of adaptive management approaches to move panda conservation forward more rapidly. Although the Chinese government has made great progress in setting aside protected areas, future emphasis will be improved management of pandas and their habitat.     

An Experiment Testing whether Condition and Survival are Limited by Food Supply in a Reintroduced Hihi Population

Abstract: The Hihi (Stitchbird, Notiomystis cincta ) is an endemic New Zealand honeyeater that after European colonization survived on only one offshore island. Attempts to reintroduce Hihi to other islands have been unsuccessful, with populations slowly declining. The main hypothesis for these declines was an inadequate year-round supply of carbohydrate food (nectar and fruit) due to human impacts on the forest habitat. When Hihi were reintroduced to Mokoia, another island with regenerating forest, we tested whether survival was limited by carbohydrate food in the year after release. We conducted an "on-off" experiment in which ad libitum sugar water was available to birds for 2 out of every 4 weeks. We compared the masses of individual birds at the end of on and off periods to identify times when birds lost condition with no supplementary food and would be likely to starve. We also used mark-recapture analysis of resighting data to test whether mortality rates were higher when supplementary food was unavailable. The only effect of the supplementary food was that Hihi spent less time foraging for nectar and fruit and more time foraging for invertebrates. There was no time of year when birds lost mass when the food was taken away, and survival rates were not significantly lower when supplementary food was absent. The low (38%) annual survival rate could not be accounted for by shortage of carbohydrate food, and population viability analysis suggests that the population is likely to slowly decline. Our experiment shows that declines of reintroduced Hihi populations may be unrelated to food supply and that alternative hypotheses should be developed and tested. Our results also show the importance of using experimental methods, when possible, to test hypotheses about factors thought to be limiting reintroduced populations.     

A typology of time‐scale mismatches and behavioral interventions to diagnose and solve conservation problems

Ecological systems often operate on time scales significantly longer or shorter than the time scales typical of human decision making, which causes substantial difficulty for conservation and management in socioecological systems. For example, invasive species may move faster than humans can diagnose problems and initiate solutions, and climate systems may exhibit long‐term inertia and short‐term fluctuations that obscure learning about the efficacy of management efforts in many ecological systems. We adopted a management‐decision framework that distinguishes decision makers within public institutions from individual actors within the social system, calls attention to the ways socioecological systems respond to decision makers’ actions, and notes institutional learning that accrues from observing these responses. We used this framework, along with insights from bedeviling conservation problems, to create a typology that identifies problematic time‐scale mismatches occurring between individual decision makers in public institutions and between individual actors in the social or ecological system. We also considered solutions that involve modifying human perception and behavior at the individual level as a means of resolving these problematic mismatches. The potential solutions are derived from the behavioral economics and psychology literature on temporal challenges in decision making, such as the human tendency to discount future outcomes at irrationally high rates. These solutions range from framing environmental decisions to enhance the salience of long‐term consequences, to using structured decision processes that make time scales of actions and consequences more explicit, to structural solutions aimed at altering the consequences of short‐sighted behavior to make it less appealing. Additional application of these tools and long‐term evaluation measures that assess not just behavioral changes but also associated changes in ecological systems are needed.     

Applying the dark diversity concept to nature conservation

Linking diversity to biological processes is central for developing informed and effective conservation decisions. Unfortunately, observable patterns provide only a proportion of the information necessary for fully understanding the mechanisms and processes acting on a particular population or community. We suggest conservation managers use the often overlooked information relative to species absences and pay particular attention to dark diversity (i.e., a set of species that are absent from a site but that could disperse to and establish there, in other words, the absent portion of a habitat‐specific species pool). Together with existing ecological metrics, concepts, and conservation tools, dark diversity can be used to complement and further develop conservation prioritization and management decisions through an understanding of biodiversity relativized by its potential (i.e., its species pool). Furthermore, through a detailed understanding of the population, community, and functional dark diversity, the restoration potential of degraded habitats can be more rigorously assessed and so to the likelihood of successful species invasions. We suggest the application of the dark diversity concept is currently an underappreciated source of information that is valuable for conservation applications ranging from macroscale conservation prioritization to more locally scaled restoration ecology and the management of invasive species.     

Incorporating Uncertainty of Management Costs in Sensitivity Analyses of Matrix Population Models

The importance of accounting for economic costs when making environmental‐management decisions subject to resource constraints has been increasingly recognized in recent years. In contrast, uncertainty associated with such costs has often been ignored. We developed a method, on the basis of economic theory, that accounts for the uncertainty in population‐management decisions. We considered the case where, rather than taking fixed values, model parameters are random variables that represent the situation when parameters are not precisely known. Hence, the outcome is not precisely known either. Instead of maximizing the expected outcome, we maximized the probability of obtaining an outcome above a threshold of acceptability. We derived explicit analytical expressions for the optimal allocation and its associated probability, as a function of the threshold of acceptability, where the model parameters were distributed according to normal and uniform distributions. To illustrate our approach we revisited a previous study that incorporated cost‐efficiency analyses in management decisions that were based on perturbation analyses of matrix population models. Incorporating derivations from this study into our framework, we extended the model to address potential uncertainties. We then applied these results to 2 case studies: management of a Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population and conservation of an olive ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys olivacea) population. For low aspirations, that is, when the threshold of acceptability is relatively low, the optimal strategy was obtained by diversifying the allocation of funds. Conversely, for high aspirations, the budget was directed toward management actions with the highest potential effect on the population. The exact optimal allocation was sensitive to the choice of uncertainty model. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty when making decisions and suggest that more effort should be placed on understanding the distributional characteristics of such uncertainty. Our approach provides a tool to improve decision making.     

A Behaviorally Explicit Demographic Model Integrating Habitat Selection and Population Dynamics in California Sea Lions

Abstract: Although there has been a call for the integration of behavioral ecology and conservation biology, there are few tools currently available to achieve this integration. Explicitly including information about behavioral strategies in population viability analyses may enhance the ability of conservation biologists to understand and estimate patterns of extinction risk. Nevertheless, most behavioral‐based PVA approaches require detailed individual‐based data that are rarely available for imperiled species. We present a mechanistic approach that incorporates spatial and demographic consequences of behavioral strategies into population models used for conservation. We developed a stage‐structured matrix model that includes the costs and benefits of movement associated with 2 habitat‐selection strategies (philopatry and direct assessment). Using a life table for California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), we explored the sensitivity of model predictions to the inclusion of these behavioral parameters. Including behavioral information dramatically changed predicted population sizes, model dynamics, and the expected distribution of individuals among sites. Estimated population sizes projected in 100 years diverged up to 1 order of magnitude among scenarios that assumed different movement behavior. Scenarios also exhibited different model dynamics that ranged from stable equilibria to cycles or extinction. These results suggest that inclusion of behavioral data in viability models may improve estimates of extinction risk for imperiled species. Our approach provides a simple method for incorporating spatial and demographic consequences of behavioral strategies into population models and may be easily extended to other species and behaviors to understand the mechanisms of population dynamics for imperiled populations.     

Planning for ex situ conservation in the face of uncertainty

Ex situ conservation strategies for threatened species often require long‐term commitment and financial investment to achieve management objectives. We present a framework that considers the decision to adopt ex situ management for a target species as the end point of several linked decisions. We used a decision tree to intuitively represent the logical sequence of decision making. The first decision is to identify the specific management actions most likely to achieve the fundamental objectives of the recovery plan, with or without the use of ex‐situ populations. Once this decision has been made, one decides whether to establish an ex situ population, accounting for the probability of success in the initial phase of the recovery plan, for example, the probability of successful breeding in captivity. Approaching these decisions in the reverse order (attempting to establish an ex situ population before its purpose is clearly defined) can lead to a poor allocation of resources, because it may restrict the range of available decisions in the second stage. We applied our decision framework to the recovery program for the threatened spotted tree frog (Litoria spenceri) of southeastern Australia. Across a range of possible management actions, only those including ex situ management were expected to provide >50% probability of the species’ persistence, but these actions cost more than use of in situ alternatives only. The expected benefits of ex situ actions were predicted to be offset by additional uncertainty and stochasticity associated with establishing and maintaining ex situ populations. Naïvely implementing ex situ conservation strategies can lead to inefficient management. Our framework may help managers explicitly evaluate objectives, management options, and the probability of success prior to establishing a captive colony of any given species.     

Spatiotemporal Patterns and Risk Factors for Lead Exposure in Endangered California Condors during 15 Years of Reintroduction

Large‐scale poisoning events are common to scavenging bird species that forage communally, many of which are in decline. To reduce the threat of poisoning and compensate for other persistent threats, management, including supplemental feeding, is ongoing for many reintroduced and endangered vulture populations. Through a longitudinal study of lead exposure in California condors (Gymnogyps californianus), we illustrate the conservation challenges inherent in reintroduction of an endangered species to the wild when pervasive threats have not been eliminated. We evaluated population‐wide patterns in blood lead levels from 1997 to 2011 and assessed a broad range of putative demographic, behavioral, and environmental risk factors for elevated lead exposure among reintroduced California condors in California (United States). We also assessed the effectiveness of lead ammunition regulations within the condor's range in California by comparing condor blood lead levels before and after implementation of the regulations. Lead exposure was a pervasive threat to California condors despite recent regulations limiting lead ammunition use. In addition, condor lead levels significantly increased as age and independence from intensive management increased, including increasing time spent away from managed release sites, and decreasing reliance on food provisions. Greater independence among an increasing number of reintroduced condors has therefore elevated the population's risk of lead exposure and limited the effectiveness of lead reduction efforts to date. Our findings highlight the challenges of restoring endangered vulture populations as they mature and become less reliant on management actions necessary to compensate for persistent threats. Patrones Espaciotemporales y Factores de Riesgo por Exposición a Plomo en Cóndores de California Durante 15 Años de Reintroducción     

Using a common commensal bacterium in endangered Takahe as a model to explore pathogen dynamics in isolated wildlife populations

Predicting and preventing outbreaks of infectious disease in endangered wildlife is problematic without an understanding of the biotic and abiotic factors that influence pathogen transmission and the genetic variation of microorganisms within and between these highly modified host communities. We used a common commensal bacterium, Campylobacter spp., in endangered Takahe (Porphyrio hochstetteri) populations to develop a model with which to study pathogen dynamics in isolated wildlife populations connected through ongoing translocations. Takahe are endemic to New Zealand, where their total population is approximately 230 individuals. Takahe were translocated from a single remnant wild population to multiple offshore and mainland reserves. Several fragmented subpopulations are maintained and connected through regular translocations. We tested 118 Takahe from 8 locations for fecal Campylobacter spp. via culture and DNA extraction and used PCR for species assignment. Factors relating to population connectivity and host life history were explored using multivariate analytical methods to determine associations between host variables and bacterial prevalence. The apparent prevalence of Campylobacter spp. in Takahe was 99%, one of the highest reported in avian populations. Variation in prevalence was evident among Campylobacter species identified. C. sp. nova 1 (90%) colonized the majority of Takahe tested. Prevalence of C. jejuni (38%) and C. coli (24%) was different between Takahe subpopulations, and this difference was associated with factors related to population management, captivity, rearing environment, and the presence of agricultural practices in the location in which birds were sampled. Modeling results of Campylobacter spp. in Takahe metapopulations suggest that anthropogenic management of endangered species within altered environments may have unforeseen effects on microbial exposure, carriage, and disease risk. Translocation of wildlife between locations could have unpredictable consequences including the spread of novel microbes between isolated populations.     

Evaluating mortality rates with a novel integrated framework for nonmonogamous species

The conservation of wildlife requires management based on quantitative evidence, and especially for large carnivores, unraveling cause‐specific mortalities and understanding their impact on population dynamics is crucial. Acquiring this knowledge is challenging because it is difficult to obtain robust long‐term data sets on endangered populations and, usually, data are collected through diverse sampling strategies. Integrated population models (IPMs) offer a way to integrate data generated through different processes. However, IPMs are female‐based models that cannot account for mate availability, and this feature limits their applicability to monogamous species only. We extended classical IPMs to a two‐sex framework that allows investigation of population dynamics and quantification of cause‐specific mortality rates in nonmonogamous species. We illustrated our approach by simultaneously modeling different types of data from a reintroduced, unhunted brown bear (Ursus arctos) population living in an area with a dense human population. In a population mainly driven by adult survival, we estimated that on average 11% of cubs and 61% of adults died from human‐related causes. Although the population is currently not at risk, adult survival and thus population dynamics are driven by anthropogenic mortality. Given the recent increase of human‐bear conflicts in the area, removal of individuals for management purposes and through poaching may increase, reversing the positive population growth rate. Our approach can be generalized to other species affected by cause‐specific mortality and will be useful to inform conservation decisions for other nonmonogamous species, such as most large carnivores, for which data are scarce and diverse and thus data integration is highly desirable.     

When conservation management becomes contraindicated: impact of food supplementation on health of endangered wildlife

Understanding the conditions that force the implementation of management actions and their efficiency is crucial for conservation of endangered species. Wildlife managers are widely and increasingly using food supplementation for such species because the potentially immediate benefits may translate into rapid conservation improvements. Supplementary feeding can also pose risks eventually promoting undesired, unexpected, subtle, or indirect, and often unnoticed, effects that are generally poorly understood. For two decades, intensive food supplementation has been used in attempting to improve the breeding productivity of the Spanish Imperial Eagle, Aquila adalberti, one of the most endangered birds of prey in the world. Here, we examined the impact of this intensive management action on nestling health, including contamination, immunodepression, and acquisition of disease agents derived from supplementation techniques and provisioned food. Contrary to management expectations, we found that fed individuals were often inadvertently "medicated" with pharmaceuticals (antibiotics and antiparasitics) contained in supplementary food (domestic rabbits). Individuals fed with medicated rabbits showed a depressed immune system and a high prevalence and richness of pathogens compared with those with no or safe supplementary feeding using non-medicated wild rabbits. A higher presence of antibiotics (fluoroquinolones) was found in sick as opposed to healthy individuals among eaglets with supplementary feeding, which points directly toward a causal effect of these drugs in disease and other health impairments. This study represents a telling example of well-meaning management strategies not based on sound scientific evidence becoming a "contraindicated" action with detrimental repercussions undermining possible beneficial effects by increasing the impact of stochastic factors on extinction risk of endangered wildlife.     

The dilemma of pest suppression in the conservation of endangered species

In the conservation of endangered species, suppression of a population of one native species to benefit another poses challenges. Examples include predator control and nest parasite reduction. Less obvious is the control of blood-feeding arthropods. We conducted a case study of the effect of native black flies (Simulium spp.) on reintroduced Whooping Cranes (Grus americana). Our intent was to provide a science-driven approach for determining the effects of blood-feeding arthropods on endangered vertebrates and identifying optimal management actions for managers faced with competing objectives. A multiyear experiment demonstrated that black flies reduce nest success in cranes by driving incubating birds off their nests. We used a decision-analytic approach to develop creative management alternatives and evaluate trade-offs among competing objectives. We identified 4 management objectives: establish a self-sustaining crane population, improve crane well-being, maintain native black flies as functional components of the ecosystem, and minimize costs. We next identified potential management alternatives: do nothing, suppress black flies, force crane renesting to occur after the activity period of black flies, relocate releases of cranes, suppress black flies and relocate releases, or force crane renesting and relocate releases. We then developed predictions on constructed scales of 0 (worst-performing alternative) to 1 (best-performing alternative) to indicate how alternative actions performed in terms of management objectives. The optimal action depended on the relative importance of each objective to a decision maker. Only relocating releases was a dominated alternative, indicating that it was not optimal regardless of the relative importance of objectives. A rational decision maker could choose any other management alternative we considered. Recognizing that decisions involve trade-offs that must be weighed by decision makers is crucial to identifying alternatives that best balance multiple management objectives. Given uncertainty about the population dynamics of blood-feeding arthropods, an adaptive management approach could offer substantial benefits.     

Accounting for Complementarity to Maximize Monitoring Power for Species Management

To choose among conservation actions that may benefit many species, managers need to monitor the consequences of those actions. Decisions about which species to monitor from a suite of different species being managed are hindered by natural variability in populations and uncertainty in several factors: the ability of the monitoring to detect a change, the likelihood of the management action being successful for a species, and how representative species are of one another. However, the literature provides little guidance about how to account for these uncertainties when deciding which species to monitor to determine whether the management actions are delivering outcomes. We devised an approach that applies decision science and selects the best complementary suite of species to monitor to meet specific conservation objectives. We created an index for indicator selection that accounts for the likelihood of successfully detecting a real trend due to a management action and whether that signal provides information about other species. We illustrated the benefit of our approach by analyzing a monitoring program for invasive predator management aimed at recovering 14 native Australian mammals of conservation concern. Our method selected the species that provided more monitoring power at lower cost relative to the current strategy and traditional approaches that consider only a subset of the important considerations. Our benefit function accounted for natural variability in species growth rates, uncertainty in the responses of species to the prescribed action, and how well species represent others. Monitoring programs that ignore uncertainty, likelihood of detecting change, and complementarity between species will be more costly and less efficient and may waste funding that could otherwise be used for management. Contabilización de la Complementariedad para Maximizar el Poder de Monitoreo para el Manejo de Especies     

A Strategy for Monitoring and Managing Declines in an Amphibian Community

Although many taxa have declined globally, conservation actions are inherently local. Ecosystems degrade even in protected areas, and maintaining natural systems in a desired condition may require active management. Implementing management decisions under uncertainty requires a logical and transparent process to identify objectives, develop management actions, formulate system models to link actions with objectives, monitor to reduce uncertainty and identify system state (i.e., resource condition), and determine an optimal management strategy. We applied one such structured decision‐making approach that incorporates these critical elements to inform management of amphibian populations in a protected area managed by the U.S. National Park Service. Climate change is expected to affect amphibian occupancy of wetlands and to increase uncertainty in management decision making. We used the tools of structured decision making to identify short‐term management solutions that incorporate our current understanding of the effect of climate change on amphibians, emphasizing how management can be undertaken even with incomplete information. Estrategia para Monitorear y Manejar Disminuciones en una Comunidad de Anfibios     

Investment and the Policy Process in Conservation Monitoring

Despite decades of discussion and implementation, conservation monitoring remains a challenge. Many current solutions in the literature focus on improving the science or making more structured decisions. These insights are important but incomplete in accounting for the politics and economics of the conservation decisions informed by monitoring. Our novel depiction of the monitoring enterprise unifies insights from multiple disciplines (conservation, operations research, economics, and policy) and highlights many underappreciated factors that affect the expected benefits of monitoring. For example, there must be a strong link between the specific needs of decision makers and information gathering. Furthermore, the involvement of stakeholders other than scientists and research managers means that new information may not be interpreted and acted upon as expected. While answering calls for sharply delineated objectives will clearly add focus to monitoring efforts, for practical reasons, high‐level goals may purposefully be left vague, to facilitate other necessary steps in the policy process. We use the expanded depiction of the monitoring process to highlight problems of cooperation and conflict. We critique calls to invest in monitoring for the greater good by arguing that incentives are typically lacking. Although the benefits of learning accrued within a project (e.g., improving management) provide incentives for investing in some monitoring, it is unrealistic, in general, to expect managers to add potentially costly measures to generate shared benefits. In the traditional linear model of the role of science in policy decisions, monitoring reduces uncertainty and decision makers are rational, unbiased consumers of the science. However, conservation actions increasingly involve social conflict. Drawing insights from political science, we argue that in high‐conflict situations, it is necessary to address the conflict prior to monitoring. Las Inversiones y el Proceso de Políticas en el Monitoreo de la Conservación Sanchirico et al.     

Positives and pathologies of natural resource management on private land‐conservation areas

In managed natural resource systems, such as fisheries and rangelands, there is a recognized trade‐off between managing for short‐term benefits and managing for longer term resilience. Management actions that stabilize ecological attributes or processes can improve productivity in the supply of ecosystem goods and services in the short term but erode system resilience at longer time scales. For example, fire suppression in rangelands can increase grass biomass initially but ultimately result in an undesirable, shrub‐dominated system. Analyses of this phenomenon have focused largely on how management actions influence slow‐changing biophysical system attributes (such as vegetation composition). Data on the frequency of management actions that reduce natural ecological variation on 66 private land‐conservation areas (PLCAs) in South Africa were used to investigate how management actions are influenced by manager decision‐making approaches, a largely ignored part of the problem. The pathology of natural resource management was evident on some PLCAs: increased focus on revenue‐generation in decision making resulted in an increased frequency of actions to stabilize short‐term variation in large mammal populations, which led to increased revenues from ecotourism or hunting. On many PLCAs, these management actions corresponded with a reduced focus on ecological monitoring and an increase in overstocking of game (i.e., ungulate species) and stocking of extralimitals (i.e., game species outside their historical range). Positives in natural resource management also existed. Some managers monitored slower changing ecological attributes, which resulted in less‐intensive management, fewer extralimital species, and lower stocking rates. Our unique, empirical investigation of monitoring‐management relationships illustrates that management decisions informed by revenue monitoring versus ecological monitoring can have opposing consequences for natural resource productivity and sustainability. Promoting management actions that maintain resilience in natural resource systems therefore requires cognizance of why managers act the way they do and how these actions can gradually shift managers toward unsustainable strategies.     

Utility of biological sensor tags in animal conservation

Electronic tags (both biotelemetry and biologging platforms) have informed conservation and resource management policy and practice by providing vital information on the spatial ecology of animals and their environments. However, the extent of the contribution of biological sensors (within electronic tags) that measure an animal's state (e.g., heart rate, body temperature, and details of locomotion and energetics) is less clear. A literature review revealed that, despite a growing number of commercially available state sensor tags and enormous application potential for such devices in animal biology, there are relatively few examples of their application to conservation. Existing applications fell under 4 main themes: quantifying disturbance (e.g., ecotourism, vehicular and aircraft traffic), examining the effects of environmental change (e.g., climate change), understanding the consequences of habitat use and selection, and estimating energy expenditure. We also identified several other ways in which sensor tags could benefit conservation, such as determining the potential efficacy of management interventions. With increasing sensor diversity of commercially available platforms, less invasive attachment techniques, smaller device sizes, and more researchers embracing such technology, we suggest that biological sensor tags be considered a part of the necessary toolbox for conservation. This approach can measure (in real time) the state of free‐ranging animals and thus provide managers with objective, timely, relevant, and accurate data to inform policy and decision making.     

Lessons from other disciplines for setting management thresholds for biodiversity conservation

Successful, state-dependent management, in which the goal of management is to maintain a system in a desired state, involves defining the boundaries between different states. Once these boundaries have been defined, managers require a strategic action plan with thresholds that initiate management interventions to either maintain or return the system to a desired state. This approach to management is widely used across diverse industries from agriculture, to medicine, to information technology, but it has only been adopted in conservation management relatively recently. Conservation practitioners have expressed a willingness to integrate this structured approach in their management systems, but they have also voiced concerns, including lack of a robust process for doing so. Given the widespread use of state-dependent management in other fields, we conducted an extensive review of the literature on threshold-based management to gain insight into how and where it is applied and identify potential lessons for conservation management. We identified 22 industries using 75 different methods for setting management thresholds in 843 studies. Methods spanned six broad approaches, including expert driven, statistical, predictive, optimization, experimental, and artificial intelligence methods. The objectives of each of these studies influenced the approaches used, including the methods for setting thresholds and selecting actions, and the number of thresholds set. The role of value judgments in setting thresholds was clear; studies across all industries frequently involved experts in setting thresholds, often accompanied by computational tools to simulate the consequences of proposed thresholds under different conditions. Of the 30 conservation studies examined, two-thirds used expert-driven methods, consistent with prior evidence that experience-based information often drives conservation management decisions. The methods we identified from other disciplines could help conservation decision makers set thresholds for management interventions in different contexts, linking monitoring to management actions and ensuring that conservation interventions are timely and effective.     

Clarifying values,risk perceptions,and attitudes to resolve or avoid social conflicts in invasive species management

Decision makers and researchers recognize the need to effectively confront the social dimensions and conflicts inherent to invasive species research and management. Yet, despite numerous contentious situations that have arisen, no systematic evaluation of the literature has examined the commonalities in the patterns and types of these emergent social issues. Using social and ecological keywords, we reviewed trends in the social dimensions of invasive species research and management and the sources and potential solutions to problems and conflicts that arise around invasive species. We integrated components of cognitive hierarchy theory and risk perceptions theory to provide a conceptual framework to identify, distinguish, and provide understanding of the driving factors underlying disputes associated with invasive species. In the ISI Web of Science database, we found 15,915 peer‐reviewed publications on biological invasions, 124 of which included social dimensions of this phenomenon. Of these 124, 28 studies described specific contentious situations. Social approaches to biological invasions have emerged largely in the last decade and have focused on both environmental social sciences and resource management. Despite being distributed in a range of journals, these 124 articles were concentrated mostly in ecology and conservation‐oriented outlets. We found that conflicts surrounding invasive species arose based largely on differences in value systems and to a lesser extent stakeholder and decision maker's risk perceptions. To confront or avoid such situations, we suggest integrating the plurality of environmental values into invasive species research and management via structured decision making techniques, which enhance effective risk communication that promotes trust and confidence between stakeholders and decision makers. Clarificar los Valores, Percepciones de Riesgo y Actitudes para Resolver o Evitar Conflictos Sociales en el Manejo de Especies Invasoras     

A case study of bats and white‐nose syndrome demonstrating how to model population viability with evolutionary effects

Ecological factors generally affect population viability on rapid time scales. Traditional population viability analyses (PVA) therefore focus on alleviating ecological pressures, discounting potential evolutionary impacts on individual phenotypes. Recent studies of evolutionary rescue (ER) focus on cases in which severe, environmentally induced population bottlenecks trigger a rapid evolutionary response that can potentially reverse demographic threats. ER models have focused on shifting genetics and resulting population recovery, but no one has explored how to incorporate those findings into PVA. We integrated ER into PVA to identify the critical decision interval for evolutionary rescue (DIER) under which targeted conservation action should be applied to buffer populations undergoing ER against extinction from stochastic events and to determine the most appropriate vital rate to target to promote population recovery. We applied this model to little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus) affected by white‐nose syndrome (WNS), a fungal disease causing massive declines in several North American bat populations. Under the ER scenario, the model predicted that the DIER period for little brown bats was within 11 years of initial WNS emergence, after which they stabilized at a positive growth rate (λ = 1.05). By comparing our model results with population trajectories of multiple infected hibernacula across the WNS range, we concluded that ER is a potential explanation of observed little brown bat population trajectories across multiple hibernacula within the affected range. Our approach provides a tool that can be used by all managers to provide testable hypotheses regarding the occurrence of ER in declining populations, suggest empirical studies to better parameterize the population genetics and conservation‐relevant vital rates, and identify the DIER period during which management strategies will be most effective for species conservation.