环洞庭湖区地下水位空间分布特征研究

地下水位空间分布特征研究对合理开发并有效利用地下水资源具有重要意义。为准确分析环洞庭湖区地下水位空间分布特征,以分隔距离增量及其对应的允许变化范围、最大计算范围、变异函数模型结构为变量构建了118种组合方案,采用交叉验证法及其评价指标对不同方案的变异函数模型参数及交叉验证统计结果进行对比分析,在此基础上筛选出相对较优的变异函数模型用于研究环洞庭湖区地下水位空间分布特征。结果表明:(1)不同结构的变异函数模型参数及其评价指标结果存在较大的差异;相同结构的变异函数模型参数及其对应的评价指标随分隔距离增量和最大计算范围的变化也存在明显变化趋势,且部分评价指标变化趋势对模型合理性的影响效果相反。(2)经对比分析,环洞庭湖区地下水位的变异函数模型为球形模型,模型变程为978 km,块金值为9.86,偏基台值为45.36,块金系数为17.9%。研究区域内地下水位具有强烈的空间相关性,且结构性因素对空间变异且主导作用。(3)环洞庭湖区地下水位总体上呈层状分布,由外向内地下水位依次降低,地下水埋深依次减少,研究区域内地下水位与地势和河流水系结构关系密切。     

Evaluating and reducing a model of radiocaesium soil-plant uptake

An existing model of radiocaesium transfer to grasses was extended to include wheat and barley and parameterised using data from a wide range of soils and contact times. The model structure was revised and evaluated using a subset of the available data which was not used for model parameterisation. The resulting model was then used as a basis for systematic model reduction to test the utility of the model components. This analysis suggested that the use of 4 model variables (relating to radiocaesium adsorption on organic matter and the pH sensitivity of soil solution potassium concentration) and 1 model input (pH) are not required. The results of this analysis were used to develop a reduced model which was further evaluated in terms of comparisons to observations. The reduced model had an improved empirical performance and fewer adjustable parameters and soil characteristic inputs.     

The effects of ventilation on residential air pollution due to emissions from a gas-fired range

The use of indoor combustion appliances can cause an increase in the levels of many different pollutants. The work presented here shows the usefulness of a model for extrapolating environmental chamber results on pollutant emissions from combustion appliances to determine indoor pollutant concentrations in actual residences. In addition, the effects of infiltration, whole-house ventilation, and spot ventilation on pollutant levels are investigated. The results show that a range hood is the most effective means of removing pollutants emitted from a gas-fired range; removal rates varied from 60% to 87%.     

基于BP神经网络的鄱阳湖水位模拟

考虑到鄱阳湖水位受流域五河与长江来水等多因素的共同作用而表现出高度非线性响应,采用典型的三层BPNN神经网络模型来模拟鄱阳湖水位与其主控因子之间的响应关系。分别将湖口、星子、都昌、棠荫和康山水位作为目标变量进行BPNN模型构建和适用性评估。结果显示：综合考虑流域五河及长江来水（汉口或九江）的BPNN水位模型,空间站点水位模拟精度（R2和Ens）可达090以上,各站点的均方根误差（RMSE）变化范围约050～10 m,若忽略长江来水的影响作用,仅将流域五河来水作为湖泊水位的主控影响因子,模型训练期与测试期的纳希效率系数（Ens）和确定性系数（R2）显著降低,且低于050,均方根误差（RMSE）也明显增大（124～288 m）,意味着综合考虑流域五河与长江来水是获取结构合理、精度保证的鄱阳湖水位模型的重要前提。同时建议针对鄱阳湖湖盆变化对水位的影响,尽可能选择一致性较好的长序列数据集来训练和测试BPNN模型。所构建的BPNN神经网络模型可进一步结合流域水文模型,用来预测气候变化与人类活动下流域径流变化对湖泊水位的潜在影响,也可作为一种有效的模型工具来回答当前鄱阳湖一些备受关注的热点问题,如定量区分流域五河与长江来水对湖泊洪枯水位的贡献分量,为湖泊洪涝灾害的防治和对策制定提供科学依据     

Models for radionuclide transfer to fruits and data requirements

This paper presents a review of available models for radionuclide transfer to fruit with particular emphasis on the model types and the purpose for which they were developed. It is clear that the model structures that have been developed range from the simple to the complex and that the underlying data on which they are based is incomplete. The work programme of the BIOMASS Theme 3 Fruits Working Group includes model inter-comparison and model validation studies that will give an indication of the performance of the different model types discussed here. The models included in these comparative studies include several new and as yet unpublished models. In the case of fruit, there is an urgent need for data on changing radionuclide distribution in plant organs with time to increase confidence in current models.     

Comparison between the predictions of a Gaussian plume model and a Lagrangian particle dispersion model for annual average calculations of long-range dispersion of radionuclides

This study attempts to validate the applicability of a simple Gaussian dispersion model for predicting long-range dispersion of continuous releases from an industrial site, by comparison with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model. The United Kingdom Meteorological Office model NAME has been used to predict annual average concentrations of radionuclides over Western Europe, resulting from discharges from the British Nuclear Fuels (BNFL) site at Sellafield, UK. The results are compared here to calculations performed using a conventional Gaussian type of dispersion model, PLUME. The results of the Gaussian model were compared at 14 locations within Western Europe at long range (up to 1700 km). The differences in predictions between the models were explained readily by differences in the way dispersion and deposition processes are represented in the two models. However, differences are generally small compared to the expected precision of the models. The implementation of environmental processes in NAME is more complete and realistic than in PLUME, and as such the results from this model may be considered more realistic. However, given that PLUME is much simpler to use, and appears to over-estimate, rather than under-estimate, environmental concentrations, its use for radiological assessments appears appropriate.     

Soil carbon dynamics in a Mediterranean forest during the Kyoto Protocol commitment periods

The purpose of the present work is to asses the possibility of detecting changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) at the end of the 5-years of the first Commitment Period (CP) of the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nation’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (1 January, 2008–31 December, 2012), by both direct measurement and the use of an opportunely evaluated SOC model, CENTURY. The investigated soil is young, developed since 28 years on virtually C-free spoil banks and under the influence of two managed forest stands, one a mix of English oak (Quercus robur L.) and Italian alder (Alnus cordata Loisel.) and the other pure English oak. The SOC stock of either stand was monitored since the time the stands were planted in 1981, and it was used together with other parameters for the model evaluation, while the future projections for the end of the first (2012) and second (2017) CP were made according to two extreme IPCC climatic scenarios: A1F1, the most dramatic, and B2, among the less impacting. Direct SOC measurements performed at the beginning and at the end of a time frame equivalent to a commitment period (2004–2008) had not shown significant variations in either stands. Compared to the 2008 SOC stock, in both stands the model shows variations at the end of the first CP from 0.7 to 1.8 Mg C ha⁻¹ for the A1F1 scenario and from 0.3 to 1.7 Mg C ha⁻¹ for the B2. These variations are within the standard deviations of the C stocks measured in 2008. On the contrary, at the end of the second CP, the modelled SOC increments range from 2.5 to 3.6 Mg C ha⁻¹ (A1F1) or from 1.9 to 3.4 Mg C ha⁻¹ (B2), indicating the possibility to detect the SOC changes by direct measurement, since the values well agree with the minimum detectable variation estimated for both sites in 3.3–4.5 Mg C ha⁻¹. This work shows that SOC stock changes measured directly in the field can be minimal at the end of both CPs, and that CENTURY well simulates the SOC dynamics of the stands. The use of such a model, validated at long-term experimental sites, hence represents an effective tool for estimating future changes in SOC amounts in support of direct measurements when a short period of time, such as the CP, is considered.     

Determining E. coli burden on pasture in a headwater catchment: Combined field and modelling approach

Empirical monitoring studies of catchment-scale Escherichia coli burden to land from agriculture are scarce. This is not surprising given the complexity associated with the temporal and spatial heterogeneity in the excretion of livestock faecal deposits and variability in microbial content of faeces. However, such information is needed to appreciate better how land management and landscape features impact on water quality draining agricultural landscapes. The aim of this study was to develop and test a field-based protocol for determining the burden of E. coli in a small headwater catchment in the UK. Predictions of E. coli burden using an empirical model based on previous best estimates of excretion and shedding rates were also evaluated against observed data. The results indicated that an empirical model utilising key parameters was able to satisfactorily predict E. coli burden on pasture most of the time, with 89% of observed values falling within the minimum and maximum range of predicted values. In particular, the overall temporal pattern of E. coli burden on pasture is captured by the model. The observed and predicted values recorded a disagreement of > 1 order of magnitude on only one of the nine sampling dates throughout an annual period. While a first approximation of E. coli burden to land, this field-based protocol represents one of the first comprehensive approaches for providing a real estimate of a dynamic microbial reservoir at the headwater catchment scale and highlights the utility of a simple dynamic empirical model for a more economical prediction of catchment-scale E. coli burden.     

Modelling the reworking effects of bioturbation on the incorporation of radionuclides into the sediment column: implications for the fate of particle-reactive radionuclides in Irish Sea sediments

A microcosm laboratory experiment was conducted to determine the impact of biological reworking by the ragworm Nereis diversicolor on the redistribution of particle-bound radionuclides deposited at the sediment-water interface. Over the course of the 40-day experiment, as much as 35% of a ¹³⁷Cs-labelled particulate tracer deposited on the sediment surface was redistributed to depths of up to 11 cm by the polychaete. Three different reworking models were employed to model the profiles and quantify the biodiffusion and biotransport coefficients: a gallery-diffuser model, a continuous sub-surface egestion model and a biodiffusion model. Although the biodiffusion coefficients obtained for each model were quite similar, the continuous sub-surface egestion model provided the best fit to the data. The average biodiffusion coefficient, at 1.8 ± 0.9 cm² y⁻¹, is in good agreement with the values quoted by other workers on the bioturbation effects of this polychaete species. The corresponding value for the biotransport coefficient was found to be 0.9 ± 0.4 cm y⁻¹. The effects of non-local mixing were incorporated in a model to describe the temporal evolution of measured ⁹⁹Tc and ⁶⁰Co radionuclide sediment profiles in the eastern Irish Sea, influenced by radioactive waste discharged from the Sellafield reprocessing plant. Reworking conditions in the sediment column were simulated by considering an upper mixed layer, an exponentially decreasing diffusion coefficient, and appropriate biotransport coefficients to account for non-local mixing. The diffusion coefficients calculated from the ⁹⁹Tc and ⁶⁰Co cores were in the range 2-14 cm² y⁻¹, which are consistent with the values found by other workers in the same marine area, while the biotransport coefficients were similar to those obtained for a variety of macrobenthic organisms in controlled laboratories and field studies.     

Ventomod: a dynamic model for leaf to fruit transfer of radionuclides in processing tomato plants (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) following a direct contamination event

This paper presents results on the calibration and validation of a model (Ventomod) for leaf to fruit transfer of (134)Cs, (85)Sr and (65)Zn in processing tomato plants after leaf contamination. Several models (e.g. FARMLAND) that deal specifically with the transfer of radionuclides to fruits are adaptations of models that were developed for agricultural crops such as leafy green vegetables. "Ventomod" represents a dynamic evaluation model exclusively built for the short-term behaviour of radionuclide depositions. It forecasts the level of radionuclide contamination in ripe processing tomato fruits following an accidental radionuclide release into the atmosphere. A validation of the developed model by data sets from an independent experiment showed that the model successfully reproduced the observed radionuclide distribution and dynamics in tomato fruits. The level of uncertainty was within the normal range of similar assessment models. For a more general use of this model further testing with independent data sets from experiments obtained under different environmental conditions and data from other horticulturally important plant species would be desirable.     

基于SCS-CN与MUSLE模型的三峡库区小流域侵蚀产沙模拟

传统土壤侵蚀模型模拟次降雨产沙时难以确定泥沙输移系数,分布式的侵蚀产沙模型对数据量需求量大。选择三峡库区宋家沟小流域为研究对象,基于2013年的降雨、植被盖度、地形、土壤等数据,利用SCS-CN和MUSLE模型耦合模拟流域的场降雨的产沙量。结果表明:该模型的模拟值的精确度在可接受范围内,整个流域2013年的泥沙流失量是3 923t,全年中5场较大的降雨贡献了泥沙流失量的80%以上;不同土地利用类型的泥沙输出量差异很大,耕地(面积44.63%)贡献了81.54%的泥沙,有林地(面积47.61%)贡献了17.63%的泥沙;坡度在0~8度的区域贡献的产沙量仅为1.75%,大于25度的区域占流域面积的比例是39.21%,产沙量占55.77%;泥沙模拟值相比实测值偏大,其原因可能是流域中分布的池塘改变了径流过程,发挥拦截泥沙功能。     

Deposition rates of unattached and attached radon progeny in room with turbulent airflow and ventilation

In this paper deposition rate coefficients for unattached and attached radon progeny were estimated according to a particle deposition model for turbulent indoor airflow described by Zhao and Wu [2006. Modeling particle deposition from fully developed turbulent flow in ventilation duct. Atmos. Environ. 40, 457–466]. The parameter which characterizes turbulent indoor airflow in this model is friction velocity, u*. Indoor ventilation changes indoor airflow and friction velocity and influences deposition rate coefficients. Correlation between deposition and ventilation rate coefficients in the room was determined. It was shown that deposition rate coefficient increases with ventilation rate coefficient and that these parameters of the Jacobi room model cannot be assumed to be independent. The values of deposition rate coefficients were presented as functions of friction velocity and ventilation rate coefficient. If ventilation rate coefficient varies from 0.1 up to 1 h⁻¹, deposition rate coefficients for unattached and attached fractions were estimated to be in the range 3–110 h⁻¹ and 0.015–0.35 h⁻¹, respectively.     

Estimation of radon exhalation rate, natural radioactivity and radiation doses in fly ash samples from Durgapur thermal power plant, West Bengal, India

Coal and its by products often contain significant amounts of radionuclides, including uranium which is the ultimate source of the radioactive gas radon. Burning of coal and the subsequent emission to the atmosphere cause the re-distribution of toxic trace elements in the environment. Due to considerable economic and environmental importance and diverse uses, the collected fly ash has become a subject of worldwide interest in recent years. In the present study, radon exhalation rate and the activity concentration of (238)U, (232)Th and (40)K radionuclides in fly ash samples from Durgapur thermal power plant (WB) have been measured by "Sealed Can technique" using LR-115 type II detectors and a low level NaI (Tl) based gamma ray spectrometer, respectively. Radon exhalation rate varied from 360.0 to 470.0 mBq m(-2)h(-1) with an average value of 406.8 mBq m(-2)h(-1). Activity concentrations of (238)U ranged from 84.8 to 126.4 Bq kg(-1) with an average value of 99.3Bqkg(-1), (232)Th ranged from 98.1 to 140.5 Bq kg(-1) with an average value of 112.9 Bq kg(-1) and (40)K ranged from 267.1 to 364.9 Bq kg(-1) with an average value of 308.9 Bq kg(-1). Radium equivalent activity obtained from activity concentrations is found to vary from 256.5 to 352.8 Bq kg(-1) with an average value of 282.5 Bq kg(-1). Absorbed gamma dose rates due to the presence of (238)U, (232)Th and (40)K in fly ash samples vary in the range 115.3-158.5 nGy h(-1) with an average value of 126.4 nGy h(-1). While the external annual effective dose rate varies from 0.14 to 0.19 mSv y(-1) with an average value of 0.15 mSv y(-1), effective dose equivalent estimated from exhalation rate varies from 42.5 to 55.2 microSv y(-1) with an average value of 47.8 microSv y(-1). Values of external hazard index H(ex) for the fly ash samples studied in this work range from 0.69 to 0.96 with a mean value of 0.77.     

Climate change, drought risk and land capability for agriculture: implications for land use in Scotland

Land capability classification systems define and communicate biophysical limitations on land use, including climate, soils and topography. They can therefore provide an accessible format for both scientists and decision-makers to share knowledge on climate change impacts and adaptation. Underlying such classifications are complex interactions that require dynamic spatial analysis, particularly between soil and climate. These relationships are investigated using a case study on drought risk for agriculture in Scotland, which is currently considered less significant than wetness-related issues. The impact of drought risk is assessed using an established empirical system for land capability linking indicator crops with water availability. This procedure is facilitated by spatial interpolation of climate and soil profile data to provide soil moisture deficits and plant available water on a regular 1-km grid. To evaluate potential impacts of future climate change, land capability classes are estimated using both large-scale ensemble (multi-simulation) data from the HadRM3 regional climate model and local-scale weather generator data (UKCP09) derived from multiple climate models. Results for the case study suggest that drought risk is likely to have a much more significant influence on land use in the future. This could potentially act to restrict the range of crops grown and hence reduce land capability in some areas unless strategic-level adaptation measures are developed that also integrate land use systems and water resources with the wider environment.     

Population Ageing and Sustainable Development Research in China

Abstract

According to the United Nations population projections, the population of the elderly is expected to roughly triple in China from 2000 to 2050, particularly when the generations who were born between the 1950s and 1970s move through the age structure, and also because people are living longer and fertility rates have fallen, population aging is expected to put pressure on government's fiscal balance through higher old-age security benefits and health-care expenditures. This work draws together the broad range of elements involved within a consistent framework, based on a computable dynamic general equilibrium model with an overlapping generation structure. Further analysis using model simulation illustrates that the alternative schemes for the benefit rate, retirement age and technological progress are likely to be beneficial, and that an obvious slow-down in the growth of living standards is likely to be avoided.     

Cosmogenic 22Na as an index of the residence time of water in freshwater basins: a review

The goal of this review is to draw attention to an opportunity for the use of cosmogenic (22)Na for dating young surface and underground waters. After 1961 when a significant quantity of (22)Na was released into the environment as a result of nuclear weapon tests, its concentrations in river waters were greatly increased, and a return to natural (cosmogenic) levels took until the mid-1980s. The studies made during this non-steady-state period showed that the one-box model for freshwater basin correctly describes the experimental data. For the 19 studied basins of Russia, the Baltic States and Japan, a calculation based on this model gave values for the mean residence time of water in the range from 4 to 23 years. Now, only cosmogenic (22)Na is in the environment, and it is the single cosmogenic radionuclide at present, which can serve as a steady-state tracer for dating young waters (up to some decades).     

Sources of uncertainty in model predictions: lessons learned from the IAEA Forest and Fruit Working Group model intercomparisons

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), through the BIOMASS program, has provided a unique international forum for assessing the relative contribution of different sources of uncertainty associated with environmental modeling. The methodology and guidance for dealing with parameter uncertainty have been fairly well developed and quantitative tools such as Monte-Carlo modeling are often recommended. The issue of model uncertainty is still rarely addressed in practical applications and the use of several alternative models to derive a range of model outputs (similar to what was done in IAEA model intercomparisons) is one of a few available techniques. This paper addresses the often overlooked issue of what we call 'modeler uncertainty,' i.e., differences in problem formulation, model implementation and parameter selection originating from subjective interpretation of the problem at hand. This study uses results from the Fruit and Forest Working Groups created under the BIOMASS program (BIOsphere Modeling and ASSessment). The greatest uncertainty was found to result from modelers' interpretation of scenarios and approximations made by modelers. In scenarios that were unclear for modelers, the initial differences in model predictions were as high as seven orders of magnitude. Only after several meetings and discussions about specific assumptions did the differences in predictions by various models merge. Our study shows that the parameter uncertainty (as evaluated by a probabilistic Monte-Carlo assessment) may have contributed over one order of magnitude to the overall modeling uncertainty. The final model predictions ranged between one and three orders of magnitude, depending on the specific scenario. This study illustrates the importance of problem formulation and implementation of an analytic-deliberative process in fate and transport modeling and risk characterization.     

Relationship between deposition and attachment rates in Jacobi room model

It is shown in this work that parameters of the Jacobi model, which describes behavior of short-lived radon progeny, are not independent. The relationship between deposition rate of attached radon progeny and attachment rate of their unattached fraction was determined in this paper. It was found that deposition rate increases when the attachment rate is smaller; this effect is more pronounced for larger friction velocity. The deposition rate of attached radon progeny is presented here as a function of friction velocity, ventilation and attachment rate. Deposition rate of attached fraction was estimated in the range 0.012-0.46 h⁻¹, when attachment rate varies from 10 h⁻¹ to 100 h⁻¹.     

State-space dynamic model for estimation of radon entry rate, based on Kalman filtering

To predict the radon concentration in a house environment and to understand the role of all factors affecting its behavior, it is necessary to recognize time variation in both air exchange rate and radon entry rate into a house. This paper describes a new approach to the separation of their effects, which effectively allows continuous estimation of both radon entry rate and air exchange rate from simultaneous tracer gas (carbon monoxide) and radon gas measurement data. It is based on a state-space statistical model which permits quick and efficient calculations. Underlying computations are based on (extended) Kalman filtering, whose practical software implementation is easy. Key property is the model's flexibility, so that it can be easily adjusted to handle various artificial regimens of both radon gas and CO gas level manipulation. After introducing the statistical model formally, its performance will be demonstrated on real data from measurements conducted in our experimental, naturally ventilated and unoccupied room. To verify our method, radon entry rate calculated via proposed statistical model was compared with its known reference value. The results from several days of measurement indicated fairly good agreement (up to 5% between reference value radon entry rate and its value calculated continuously via proposed method, in average). Measured radon concentration moved around the level approximately 600 Bq m(-3), whereas the range of air exchange rate was 0.3-0.8 (h(-1)).     

川中丘陵县域土壤pH空间变异及影响因素分析——以四川仁寿县为例

利用2012年在仁寿县采集的555个表层土样(0~20cm),应用地统计学方法分析了该县域尺度表层土壤pH值的空间变异特征;并采用方差分析和回归分析量化主要影响因素对土壤pH值空间变异的影响程度。结果表明:研究区土壤pH值在4.02~8.14之间,平均为6.80,总体上以中性和碱性土壤为主;变异系数为14.48%,属中等程度的空间变异性。地统计分析表明,研究区土壤pH值变异函数的最佳理论模型为球状模型,具有中等程度的空间自相关性,且空间自相关范围较大。方差分析和回归分析表明,土壤类型、成土母质和土地利用方式是显著影响土壤pH值的主要因素。其中,成土母质和土地利用方式分别能独立解释76.2%和4.8%的土壤pH值空间变异。土壤类型的解释能力与分类级别有关,土类、亚类和土属可分别独立解释41.3%、57.3%和83.7%的土壤pH值空间变异,因而能反映成土过程和母质特性的土属是研究区土壤pH值空间变异的主控因素。研究结果可为川中丘陵县域尺度土壤pH空间变异分析及区域生态环境管理与建设提供有益参考。