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1.
We constructed a model to simulate emissions of CO2 from electricity generation in the US and, using the model, we developed 20-year projections of emissions under various regulatory scenarios.  相似文献   

2.
Long-term future development of European agriculture within the global market is highly uncertain, but can potentially have large impacts on the future of agricultural businesses, rural communities and amenities such as traditional landscapes and biodiversity. Despite great uncertainties it is of interest to explore the extent of these potential changes. This paper provides an explorative scenario of the European crop production in a liberalised world without European Union (EU) market interventions. The results do not form a prediction or a business as usual scenario, but rather a plausible and salient thought-experiment of a possible future based on the consistent integration of current conceptual and quantitative models.Future scenarios for climate, demography, technology and global demand for agricultural commodities are used to assess the competitiveness of European agriculture. Regional economic competitiveness is determined by combining indicators for the economic strength of farms in a region and population pressure on agricultural land, and subsequently used to determine where agricultural production is likely to sustain under the market liberalisation scenario. The method is illustrated for the 27 EU member state countries for three commodities: wheat, potato and milk (relying on grass).Results include maps of the dominant wheat, potato and milk producing regions across Europe as projected for 2050. They show that due to increased agricultural productivity, less agricultural land will be needed to supply the European demand for food and feed. In addition, production will concentrate in those regions which have a comparative advantage. This potentially leads to a strong polarisation between north-western Europe and southern Europe, which faces negative impacts of climate change and central and northern Europe where agricultural businesses lag in economic strength and farm size. A contrasting policy intervention scenario illustrates how differences in demand and productivity result in an expansion of the agricultural area, especially for the production of wheat.Although the complete liberalisation scenario may seem unlikely, and the underlying assumptions have great uncertainty, the results help identify and map market pressures on agricultural land use across regions in Europe. As such, it stimulates policy debate on the desired future for the European agricultural sector and the trade-offs between economic competitiveness under global market conditions and policy intervention. In addition, it provides a basis for the planning of alternative economic strategies for agriculturally less competitive regions.  相似文献   

3.
Changes of streamflow reflect combined effects of climate, soil and vegetation in the basin scale. This study was conducted to investigate the response of streamflow to the climate changes/variability in different scales of the Yellow River Basin (YRB). The spatial distribution and temporal trends were explored for precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PE) during 1961-2000 to illustrate climate change/variability and impacts of climate change/variability on streamflow were explained by investigating the relationship of precipitation, PE and streamflow in the YRB. The results presented that: (i) precipitation and PE exhibited different spatial distribution patterns and temporal trends in different regions, and most stations showed negative trends for precipitation in the basin; (ii) the relationship of streamflow with precipitation and PE showed high nonlinearity, and the magnitudes and patterns of streamflow response to precipitation and PE displayed different patterns varied with the dry conditions in different region or years; and (iii) the precipitation elasticity of streamflow (?P) was 1.80, 1.08, 1.78 and 1.95 in Lanzhou, Toudaoguai, Huayuankou and Lijin respectively, while the PE elasticity of streamflow (?ET) was −3.41, −4.40, −4.52 and −4.20 in above four scales, respectively, from which can be seen that streamflow was more sensitive to precipitation in wet region than in arid region and inversely it was more sensitive to PE in arid regions than in wet regions. Furthermore, precipitation elasticity of streamflow calculated from the partial correlation presented a reasonable result to show the combined effect of precipitation and PE on streamflow.  相似文献   

4.
Water vapor flux and carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange in croplands are crucial to water and carbon cycle research as well as to global warming evaluation. In this study, a standard three-layer feed-forward back propagation neural network technique associated with the Bayesian technique of automatic relevance determination (ARD) was employed to investigate water vapor and CO2 exchange between the canopy of summer maize and atmosphere in responses to variations of environmental and physiological factors. These factors, namely the photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), air temperature (T), vapor pressure deficient (VPD), leaf-area index (LAI), soil water content in root zone (W), and friction velocity (U*), were used as inputs in neural network analysis. Results showed that PAR, VPD, T and LAI were the primary factors regulating both water vapor and CO2 fluxes with VPD and W more critical to water vapor flux and PAR and T more crucial to CO2 exchange. Furthermore, two time variables “day of the year (DOY)” and “time of the day (TOD)” could also improve the simulation results of neural network analysis. The important factors identified by the neural network technique used in this study were in the order of PAR > T > VPD > LAI > U* > TOD for water vapor flux and in the order of VPD > W > LAI > T > PAR > DOY for CO2 exchange. This study suggests that neural network technique associated with ARD could be a useful tool for identifying important factors regulating water vapor and CO2 fluxes in terrestrial ecosystem.  相似文献   

5.
In ecological network theory, network efficiency and resilience are two essential but complementary attributes of the network structure, and a balance between these factors is critical for an ecosystem's long-term sustainability. Our paper introduces this method and related concepts into water use systems to provide a new angle for sustainability quantification. In this paper, we investigate the meanings of network efficiency and resilience in the context of sustainable development of water use systems, and define sustainable systems based on the optimal balance between network efficiency and resilience. With the consideration of complex artificial characteristics of water use, we propose an optimal water use network and quantify its flows. By ascendency calculation, the balanced network structure can be determined. We then use the four sub-basins of China's Haihe River as a case study to illustrate how the optimal network can be constructed and how the optimal balance for each scenario can be calculated. The results show that the optimal balance for the sub-basins has ascendency values ranging from 0.5970 to 0.7161. By analyzing the contribution of each water use activity to network's balance structure, the location of the optimal balance in water use systems can be better understood. This research represents the first attempt to explore the balance between a network structure's efficiency and resilience as a way to quantify the sustainability of water use systems, and builds a foundation for future studies on the assessment, regulation, and management of water resources.  相似文献   

6.
大气CO2浓度升高已成为世界范围内重要环境问题。为了解大气CO2浓度升高对春小麦光合作用及水分生理生态特性的影响,在典型半干旱区定西利用开顶式气室(OTC)试验平台,以春小麦“定西24号”为供试品种,开展了CO2浓度增加模拟试验。试验设对照(390μmol·mol?1)、480μmol·mol?1和570μmol·mol?1等3个CO2浓度(摩尔分数)梯度。结果表明:在对照和增加CO2浓度条件下,春小麦叶片净光合速率和蒸腾速率日变化均呈“双峰型”分布,出现明显的“午休”现象;胞间CO2浓度的日变化表现为斜“V”字型曲线;叶水势日变化呈现反抛物线曲线走向,在中午后出现水势曲线拐点。在不同生育时期内,净光合速率、气孔导度和胞间CO2浓度均表现为开花期最大,乳熟期最小。而蒸腾速率表现为开花期最大,拔节期最小,叶片水平水分利用效率表现为孕穗期最大,乳熟期最小。随着CO2浓度升高,春小麦叶片净光合速率、胞间CO2浓度、水分利用效率和水势提高,气孔导度和蒸腾速率降低。与对照大气CO2浓度相比,在480μmol·mol?1浓度和570μmol·mol?1浓度下,整个生育期净光合速率平均分别提高了14.68%和28.20%,气孔导度平均降低了15.29%和24.83%,胞间CO2浓度平均提高了10.38%和26.15%,蒸腾速率平均减小了6.63%和12.41%,WUE平均增加了22.9%和46.9%。随着CO2浓度升高,蒸腾失水减少,叶片水势不断增加,从而增强了春小麦对干旱胁迫的抵御能力。研究结果为我国半干旱区春小麦对全球气候变化下的敏感性及适应性提供理论参考。  相似文献   

7.
Terrestrial ecosystems store more carbon (C) than the atmosphere and provide ecosystem services (ES) such as global climate regulation, by sequestering carbon within biomass and soil. Land use land cover (LULC) change is considered a key factor, playing an important role in the dynamic variations of carbon storage. The aim of this paper is to assess the effects that LULC has had on carbon stocks and consequently on climate change regulation in north-western Morocco over 21 years. To achieve this aim, the Integrated Valuation of ES and Trade-offs (InVEST) model is used to assess status and variation in the net amount of carbon stored by the different types of LULC, and the economic value of the carbon sequestered in the remaining stock. The results show that the total carbon stock increased from 4.81TgC in 1996 to 4.98TgC in 2017. Over the 21 years, the LULC changes had the greatest effect on carbon storage - an increase of 6.87% with 0.17TgC of carbon sequestered, since the majority of unused land was changed to forest and cultivated land. Based on the global costs of atmospheric carbon, we estimate the economic value of carbon storage services to be between US$1,800,000 and US$3,570,000 for the whole period, with an average yearly increment of between US$86,000 and US$170,000. The results show that the ecosystem management has had a substantial climate mitigation effect. Also, the possibility of paying for ES could inform policy on the adoption of LULC to support livelihood and management choices.  相似文献   

8.
Vegetation management in shallow groundwater table environments requires an understanding of the interactions between the physical and biological factors that determine root-zone soil salinization and moisture. In this study, the effects of groundwater depth and flood irrigation strategies on water and salt dynamics and reed water use were analyzed in the shallow groundwater region of the Yellow River Delta in China using the HYDRUS-1D model. The results indicated that there is a conflict between water, salt stress, and reed water use with variations in groundwater depth. A water table depth of 3.5 m is the minimum limit to maintain a safe level of soil salinity, but at this depth, the environmental stress on reeds is worsened by the decrease in soil water storage. Maintaining the flood pulses on the wetland, especially during May, may be critical for restoring the reed wetland in the Yellow River Delta.  相似文献   

9.
In Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from biomass combustion are traditionally assumed climate neutral if the bioenergy system is CO2 flux neutral, i.e. the quantity of CO2 released approximately equals the amount of CO2 sequestered in biomass. This convention is a plausible assumption for fast growing biomass species, but is inappropriate for slower growing biomass, like forests. In this case, the climate impact from biomass combustion can be potentially underestimated if CO2 emissions are ignored, or overestimated, if biogenic CO2 is considered equal to anthropogenic CO2. The estimation of the effective climate impact should take into account how the CO2 fluxes are distributed over time: the emission of CO2 from bioenergy approximately occurs at a single point in time, while the absorption by the new trees is spread over several decades. Our research target is to include this dynamic time dimension in unit-based impact analysis, using a boreal forest stand as case study. The boreal forest growth is modelled with an appropriate function, and is investigated under different forestry regimes (affecting the growth rate and the year of harvest). Specific atmospheric decay functions for biomass-derived CO2 are then elaborated for selected combinations of forest management options. The contribution to global warming is finally quantified using the GWPbio index as climate metric. Results estimates the effects of these practices on the characterization factor used for the global warming potential of CO2 from bioenergy, and point out the key role played by the selected time horizon.  相似文献   

10.
利用GXH-3051A红外线分析仪,采用动态闭合气室法对吉林西部4种土地利用方式下土壤CO2排放通量日变化进行了定位测量,系统分析了环境因子及土壤理化性质等因素对土壤CO2排放通量日变化的影响。结果表明,水田、旱田、草地和盐碱地土壤CO2排放通量日变化均呈单峰曲线,但排放通量的日均值有较大差异,其中水田和草地排放量较高,分别为1.69μmol.m-2.s-1和1.24μmol.m-2.s-1;旱田和盐碱地较低,为0.50μmol.m-2.s-1和0.63μmol.m-2.s-1。各地类土壤CO2排放通量的日均值与其每天上午10:00土壤CO2排放通量值最为接近,即可用该时间测得的土壤CO2排放通量估测日平均值。土地利用方式和大气温度是造成土壤CO2日排放通量差异的主要因素,多年来该区土地利用方式的变化,改变了土壤表层10 cm内的土层温度、土壤含水率、有机碳含量、水解氮含量,进而影响土壤呼吸和CO2排放通量;区内水田土壤CO2排放通量与温度的相关性最高(R2=0.837 5),其次为旱田和草地。  相似文献   

11.
Land-use change in oases of arid zones play a significant role in the sustainable development and stability of oases. This paper presents a typical case of successful efforts to mitigate land-use change, its drivers and effects on the oasis eco-environment at Keriya Oasis in the western arid zone of China using remotely-sensed data, official statistics, and data collected by field investigation. Mathematical models were developed to quantify important elements related to land-use change, including net change and total change. The results indicate that: (1) approximately 17% of land-use types of Keriya Oasis changed between 1991 and 2002; (2) socioeconomic development, climate change, and economic polices contributed to land-use change in the oasis; (3) inappropriate human activities were the main cause of land-use change and eco-environmental degradation in the oasis; and (4) the stability of the oasis is threatened by land-use change and unexpected eco-environmental changes in the oasis and oasis–desert ecotone. The study suggests irrational human activity in arid zones, and that caution should be exercised to maintain stability and sustainable development of oases.  相似文献   

12.
A methodology for simulating climate change impacts on tree growth was introduced into a statistical growth and yield model in relation to variations in site fertility and location implemented with current temperature sum. This was based on a procedure in which the relative enhancement in stem volume growth was calculated from short-term runs of a physiological simulation model for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and silver birch (Betula pendula Roth.) stands. These simulations were made for a set of stands with species-specific variations in stand characteristics, location and fertility type first in current climatic conditions and then in different combinations of CO2 and temperature elevations. Based on these simulations, the relative enhancement of volume growth induced by the climate change (relative scenario effect, RSEv) was calculated and modelled in relation to: (i) CO2 and temperature elevation, stand density and the competition status of the tree in its stand, and (ii) variations in site fertility type and current temperature sum of a stand. Finally, these transfer functions for RSEv were applied to adapt the stem volume growth in the statistical growth and yield model to reflect the response to climate change.  相似文献   

13.
轮作休耕是实现"藏粮于地、藏粮于技"的重要途径之一,目前在太湖稻田区域主要推广紫云英(Astragalus sinicus L.)-水稻(Oryza sativa L.)、油菜(Brassica napus L.)-水稻和休耕-水稻典型轮作与休耕方式。在太湖地区典型稻田水稻生长季设置了6个处理:(1)紫云英-水稻轮作,不施N肥处理,MRN0;(2)紫云英-水稻轮作,当地常规施肥量(300 kg·hm-2,以纯氮计,下同),MRN300;(3)油菜-水稻轮作,不施N肥处理,RRN0;(4)油菜-水稻轮作,当地常规施肥量(300 kg·hm-2),RRN300;(5)休耕-水稻轮作,不施N肥处理,FRN0;(6)休耕-水稻轮作,当地常规施肥量(300 kg·hm-2),FRN300。通过田间试验,研究了不同轮作与休耕方式对水稻产量、氮肥利用率及稻田温室气体CH4和N2O排放的影响,从而为综合评价轮作休耕方式提供科学依据。田间试验结果显示,与不施氮肥处理相比,在不同轮作休耕方式下施氮300 kg·hm-2,可增加53.7%—60.0%的水稻产量,以MRN300处理水稻产量最高,与RRN300和FRN300处理相比,水稻产量分别提高了1.6%和6.0%。在不施氮水平下,MRN0、RRN0和FRN0各轮作处理间N2O排放通量和累积排放量均值差异不显著(P>0.05)。而在施氮300 kg·hm-2下,紫云英-水稻轮作可降低N2O排放通量和累积排放量,与RRN300和FRN300处理相比,N2O排放通量分别降低了36.0%(P<0.05)和2.1%(P>0.05)。在同一施氮水平下,紫云英-水稻轮作CH4排放通量和累积排放量最小,与RRN300和FRN300处理相比,MRN300处理CH4排放通量分别降低了1.1%和6.7%,CH4和N2O的全球增温潜势(GWP)分别降低了3.3%和6.5%,单位水稻产量温室气体排放强度(GHGI)分别降低了4.6%和11.6%。综上,紫云英-水稻轮作对提高水稻产量,降低温室气体排放效果最好。  相似文献   

14.
Cyanobacterial bloom events in South Taihu Lake cause serious water quality problems and disturb aesthetic view of lake’s environment. In this study, correlations between cyanobacterial blooms and hydro-meteorological factors, including water quality, temperature and precipitation were investigated. Results demonstrated that South Taihu Lake was heavily affected by cyanobacteria and the proliferation of cyanobacteria due to variations in hydro-meteorological factors and water quality conditions. Water quality parameters, including COD, NH3-N, TN and TP improved significantly since 2008 even at an elevated cyanobacterial bloom situation. Correlation analyses have shown that the development of cyanobacterial density and chlorophyll a concentration was sensitive to a wider temperature variation. The optimum temperature for cyanobacteria was 20°C, while extremely low and high temperatures were found to suppress their growth. Moreover, unusual rainfall patterns were measured during the study period (2003–2009), which showed an adverse impact on cyanobacterial development. Findings from this study suggested that seasonal lake’s water quality monitoring; suitable treatment of cyanobacterial blooms and strict policy implementation can solve the water quality issues in highly eutrophic lakes like Taihu.  相似文献   

15.
SUMMARY

Reclaiming farmland from lakes in China in the 1950s damaged the water quality of many lakes. Tremendous efforts have been made since the late 1990s to restore vegetation around the damaged lakes. This paper examines water quality of Fuxian and Qilu Lakes and land-use characteristics within the two catchments in the high-altitude area of Yunnan Province, China. Landsat TM data acquired in 1989, 1994, 1999 and 2005 were used to extract land use and land cover (LULC) information. Measurements of five water quality indices (WQIs), BOD, COD, pH, TN and TP, for the same period of time were examined. The results showed that the area of residential and forest/shrub increased, whereas that of cropland and barren land decreased from 1989 to 2005 in both catchments. Qilu Lake was much more polluted than Fuxian Lake, and pollution worsened over time for both lakes. The differences in water quality between the two lakes were caused by differences in LULC composition and continued degradation in water quality was caused by intensive farming and urban sprawl. Unless the landscape is converted back to its pre-1950 composition and structure, water quality in both lakes cannot be significantly improved and will continue to threaten sustainable development in the region.  相似文献   

16.
The dynamics of agricultural and forestry biomass are highly sensitive to climate change, particularly in high latitude regions. Heilongjiang Province was selected as research area in North-east China. We explored the trend of regional climate warming and distribution feature of biomass resources, and then analyzed on the spatial relationship between climate factors and biomass resources. Net primary productivity (NPP) is one of the key indicators of vegetation productivity, and was simulated as base data to calculate the distribution of agricultural and forestry biomass. The results show that temperatures rose by up to 0.37°C/10a from 1961 to 2013. Spatially, the variation of agricultural biomass per unit area changed from -1.93 to 5.85 t·km–2·a–1 during 2000–2013. More than 85% of farmland areas showed a positive relationship between agricultural biomass and precipitation. The results suggest that precipitation exerts an overwhelming climate influence on agricultural biomass. The mean density of forestry biomass varied from 10 to 30 t·km–2. Temperature had a significant negative effect on forestry biomass in Lesser Khingan and northern Changbai Mountain, because increased temperature leads to decreased Rubisco activity and increased respiration in these areas. Precipitation had a significant positive relationship with forestry biomass in south-western Changbai Mountain, because this area had a warmer climate and stress from insufficient precipitation may induce xylem cavitation. Understanding the effects of climate factors on regional biomass resources is of great significance in improving environmental management and promoting sustainable development of further biomass resource use.
  相似文献   

17.
Changes in carbon use efficiency (CUE), which is defined as the ratio of net primary production (NPP) to gross primary production (GPP), were analyzed for Abies veitchii Lindl. forests with respect to stand development by developing a simple mathematical model incorporating data on physiological variables and leaf mass ratio. A decrease in CUE with stand development was successfully expressed as a function of stand biomass (y) based on the following three assumptions: (1) a power-law relationship between mean respiration and mean individual tree mass, (2) a power-functional relationship between mean gross primary production and mean individual tree mass, and (3) self-thinning relationship between stand biomass and density. Based on this model, a parameter of CUE–y relationship was defined, and it was clarified that CUE decrease with stand development is caused not by the ratio of specific respiration rate to specific gross photosynthetic rate, but by leaf mass ratio. Since CUE is high in young forests, helpful information on selecting woody species when planting seedlings was provided from the viewpoints of reducing CO2 in the atmosphere and global warming.  相似文献   

18.
The Liupan Mountains are located in the southern Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China, that forms an important divide between landforms and biogeographic regions. The populated part of the Liupan Mountain Region has suffered tremendous ecological damage over time due to population pressure, excessive demand and inappropriate use of agricultural land resources. To present the relationship between land use/cover change and spatio-temporal variation of soil erosion, data sets of land use between the late 1980s and 2000 were obtained from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery, and spatial models were used to characterize landscape and soil erosion conditions. Also, soil erosion in response to land use and land cover change were quantified and analyzed using data from geographical information systems and remote sensing. Soil erosion by water was the dominant mode of soil loss, while soil erosion by wind was only present on a relatively small area. The degree of soil erosion was classified into five severity classes: slight, light, moderate, severe, and very severe. Soil erosion in the Liupan Mountain Region increased between the late 1980s and 2000, both in terms of acreage and severity. Moderate, severe, and very severe eroded areas accounted for 54.86% of the total land area. The lightly eroded area decreased, while the moderately eroded area increased by 368817 ha (22%) followed by severe erosion with 146552 ha (8.8%), and very severe erosion by 97067.6 ha (5.8%). Soil loss on sloping cropland increased with slope gradients. About 90% of the cropland was located on slopes less than 15°. Most of the increase in soil erosion on cropland was due to conversion of steep slopes to cropland and degradation of grassland and increased activities. Soil erosion was severe on grassland with a moderate or low grass cover and on dry land. Human activities, cultivation on steep slopes, and overgrazing of pastures were the main reasons for the increase in erosion severity.  相似文献   

19.
Time series data on population change, economic development, climate change, water volume and quality and oasis land-use change were collected to study the interactions between these factors in the arid Tarim River Basin, China. The study reveals that precipitation and stream flow in headwater streams increased, but stream flow in the main Tarim River had reduced significantly over the past three decades. This implies that human activity, rather than climate change, dominated the recent environmental changes in the river basin. As a result of population growth and cultivated land expansion in the upper and middle reaches of the river, severe problems of water shortage, water pollution, death of natural vegetation, soil salinization, desertification and sand-dust storms have occurred, particularly in downstream areas of the river basin. These problems have had serious negative effects on the health of local people and sustainable social economic development in the region. Some development strategies are proposed to deal with these problems.  相似文献   

20.
Riparian land use remains one of the most significant impacts on stream ecosystems. This study focuses on the relationship between stream ecosystems and riparian land use in headwater regions. Four riparian land types including forest, grassland, farmland, and residential land were examined to reveal the correlation between stream water and fish communities in headwater streams of the Taizi River in north-eastern China. Four land types along riparian of 3 km in length were evaluated at 25, 50, 100, 200 and 500 m widths, respectively. Generally, the results found a significant relationship between riparian land uses and stream water quality. Grassland was positively correlated with water quality parameters (conductivity and total dissolved solids) at scales from 100 to 500 m riparian width. Farmland and residential land was negatively correlated with water quality parameters at scales from 25 to 500 m and from 50 to 200 m riparian widths, respectively. Although the riparian forest is important for maintaining habitat diversity and fish communities, the results found that only fish communities were significantly correlated with the proportion of riparian farmland. Farmland had a positive correlation with individual fish abundance within a riparian corridor of 25 to 50 m, but a negative correlation with fish diversity metrics from 25 to 100 m. This study indicates that effective riparian management can improve water quality and fish communities in headwater streams.  相似文献   

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