Common challenges for ecological modelling: Synthesis of facilitated discussions held at the symposia organized for the 2009 conference of the International Society for Ecological Modelling in Quebec City, Canada, (October 6-9, 2009)

The eleven symposia organized for the 2009 conference of the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM 2009) held in Quebec City, Canada, October 6-9, 2009, included facilitated discussion sessions following formal presentations. Each symposium focused on a specific subject, and all the subjects could be classified into three broad categories: theoretical development, population dynamics and ecosystem processes. Following discussions with the symposia organizers, which indicated that they all shared similar issues and concerns, the facilitated discussions were task-oriented around four basic questions: (1) key challenges in the research area, (2) generating and sharing new ideas, (3) improving collaboration and networking, and (4) increasing visibility to decision-makers, partners and clients. Common challenges that emerged from the symposia included the need for improved communication and collaboration among different academic disciplines, further progress in both theoretical and practical modelling approaches, and accentuation of technology transfer. Regarding the generation and sharing of new ideas, the main issue that emerged was the type of positive interactions that should be encouraged among potential collaborators. The usefulness of the Internet, particularly for the sharing of open-source software and conducting discussion forums, was highlighted for improving collaboration and networking. Several communication tools are available today, and it is important for modellers to use them more intensively. Visibility can be increased by publishing professional newsletters, maintaining informal contacts with the public, organizing educational sessions in primary and secondary schools, and developing simplified analytical frameworks and pilot studies. Specific issues raised in each symposium are also discussed.     

淮河中上游参考作物腾发量趋势变化及其成因

参考作物腾发量(ET0)是由平均气温(Tm)、实际水汽压(ea)、风速(u2)和净辐射(Rn)等多个气候要素驱动的,因此,气候变化对ET0的影响是显而易见的。分析ET0和各气候要素的时空变化特征可以获得气候变化对ET0的影响。利用Mann-Kendall(MK)检验分析了淮河中上游流域1959—2009年ET0及各气候要素的变化趋势。并且利用偏相关分析和贡献分析获得ET0和主要气候要素之间的定性和定量关系。结果显示,大部分站点的年ET0表现出显著的下降趋势。在夏季,所有站点的ET0都表现出显著的下降趋势,且西北部地区尤其显著。其他3个季节显著下降的ET0趋势主要分布在淮河中上游流域的西北部地区。年及夏季的ET0在1970年以后表现出下降的趋势并且在1975年以后变的显著,其余3个季节ET0并无明显变化特征,说明夏季ET0的显著减少是年ET0显著减少的主要原因;实际水汽压与ET0之间表现出显著的负相关关系,而平均温度、净辐射和风速则表现出显著的正相关关系;无论从定性的偏相关关系还是定量的贡献分析都可看出虽然年及四季的平均气温是显著上升的,并且导致了ET0的增加,但是整个流域显著下降的风速和净辐射直接导致了年及夏季ET0的显著减少。