一种基于社会力的行人-自行车混合疏散模型及模拟研究

当公共安全事件发生时,借助自行车进行疏散是一种重要方式。针对这种情况,开展了行人-自行车混合疏散建模和模拟研究。为了更好量化自行车的超越行为,引入了临时期望运动方向,改变自行车的自驱力,实现对自行车避让超越行为的细致描述;修改了单车模型来更新自行车的运动,建立了一种多层次的自行车运动子模型。将该模型与行人社会力模型相结合,得到一种基于社会力的行人-自行车混合疏散模型“MixSF”。模拟发现,MixSF能够较好地再现混合疏散中的超越行为。在实验条件下,发现个体密度小于0.548人/m2时,自行车占比的增加能加快疏散;相对密度大于0.81时,自行车失去疏散速度优势。     

基于改进社会力模型的地铁大客流疏散能力研究*

为有效应对大客流情景下人群拥挤对地铁站正常运行带来的影响,采用社会力模型和Anylogic仿真软件,对地铁站大客流疏散能力进行建模和分析,从客观、主观、管理视角分析影响客流疏散能力的因素,基于改进社会力模型刻画行人行为,分析影响地铁车站疏散能力的3个关键因素,并以南宁地铁1号线朝阳广场站为背景进行研究。研究结果表明:行人密度是影响地铁站疏散能力的关键因素,出入口选择策略和行人亲属关系比例对疏散能力影响显著,研究结果可为地铁客流疏散提出针对性建议。     

通道中障碍物布局对行人运动影响的多格子模型研究

传统行人疏散运动模型对障碍物环境下的个体运动行为关注不足,而且未较好地讨论不同障碍物布局下的行人运动特性。通过改进多格子模型建立了考虑障碍物布局影响的行人运动模型,并与实验结果对比验证了该模型的有效性。利用该模型对不同障碍物布局下的单、双行人流进行模拟,探究不同障碍物布局对行人运动的影响。模拟结果表明,合理的障碍物布局有助于提高行人流的运动速度。丰富了传统多格子模型在障碍物环境下的运动规则,能够为行人交通设施设计及科学管理提供理论与技术支持。     

考虑双向群组运动特征的场域模型研究

行人动力学的研究能为火灾等紧急情况下的疏散研究提供理论支撑。现有研究多以独立行人为研究对象,群组作为行人流的重要组成部分,有必要进行研究分析。以场域模型为基础,在前人提出群组场的基础上进行拓展,并引入预测场模拟群组行人避让行为,构建了考虑双向群组运动特征的拓展场域模型,对双向群组运动特征进行研究。在双向流通道中进行模拟发现:随着预测场敏感性参数增大避让行为意识增强,时间损失增加,与反向行人的正面冲突减少;拓展模型能使群组维持较近距离的同时减少群组成员之间的冲突;该模型能模拟密度越大速度越小的典型现象。     

走廊弯腰疏散行为试验研究

为研究走廊里人群弯腰疏散行为,组织45名学生进行6组不同初始密度疏散试验,通过录像分析得出不同密度时弯腰疏散基本图,将结果与行走及爬行疏散比较。试验结果表明:弯腰和行走疏散的速度分别是1.4 m/s和1.7 m/s,而爬行疏散速度为0.73 m/s;在密度小于0.5人/m2时,3种疏散方式的流动速度相当;在密度大于0.5人/m2时,3种移动方式速度有明显差异;得出弯腰疏散的速度频率分布图,速度均值为:女生1.02±0.16 m/s,男生1.09±0.2 m/s;在低速度区,女生占很大比重,男生在高速度区的频率较高。     

基于改进最优迈步模型的楼梯区域疏散模拟

面对火灾等紧急事件,如何从多层和高层建筑内快速有效地疏散人群是火灾安全研究的一个重要课题。针对楼梯间这一重要疏散场景,考虑行人在台阶与转角平台处的迈步特征差别,在转角平台提出并采用圆形连续场域的生成法和运动规则,构建了一种改进的最优迈步模型。利用该模型重现了NIST进行的疏散演习场景,并从实时疏散人数、总疏散时间和基本图等方面进行了分析。结果表明:模型符合真实楼梯间行人疏散特性,可用于楼梯区域行人流的研究和分析。     

开放空间复杂地形人员疏散模拟研究

为研究开放空间复杂地形条件下人员疏散,开发出能够模拟行人疏散的三维可视化软件系统。将复杂多变的地形分解为一系列连续变化的坡面,分析斜坡上行人受力,考虑重力影响,在经典社会力模型的基础上,提出一个改进模型。选择某气井周边居民疏散案例,运用VC++和OpenGL图形库技术初步完成整合数字高程模型(DEM)、道路网络和行人特征的三维社会力人员疏散模拟程序。最后通过实例模拟,可以明显地观察到人群的动态疏散过程以及在灾难中的拥堵行为、转向躲避行为和超越行为。应用该模型,能够实现复杂地形人员疏散三维动态模拟,并快速预测疏散时间。     

Simulation of pedestrian contra-flow by multi-agent DEM model with self-evasive action model

A pedestrian contra-flow can be seen frequently in urban spaces such as a pedestrian crossing, an open space and a concourse. A pedestrian simulation with taking a pedestrian contra-flow into account will be a rational tool for designing urban pedestrian facilities. The objective of our research is to develop a microscopic model for a pedestrian contra-flow. Although we have been developing a DEM (Distinct Element Method)-based microscopic model of crowd behavior, this conventional crowd behavior model does not necessarily provide satisfactory agreement with an observation in a pedestrian crossing with heavy commute traffic. In this paper, we newly develop a self-evasive action model, which can describe either a collision avoidance or an alignment behavior between adjacent pedestrians. The multi-agent DEM model with the self-evasive action model shows good predictions of the characteristics of pedestrian contra-flow.     

公共建筑环境下行人行为特性及拥挤机理研究综述

介绍国内外对于公共建筑环境下行人行为特性及拥挤机理方面的研究成果,主要包括:自由流情况下的行人运动速度,人群运动的最佳密度,行人的年龄、文化、性别、退让距离、温度、旅行目的、运动方向和建筑设施类型对行人流速度和流量的影响,以及行人流的密度和速度关系。成果显示:各国学者在人群的速度、密度和流量之间的相互关系方面研究较多,所得的结论趋于一致;但对于影响行人流速度和流量的各种因素并没有进行深入的研究,尤其是拥挤情况下行人的心理状态和拥挤事故的相互关系。     

Effects of vehicle impact velocity, vehicle front-end shapes on pedestrian injury risk

Objective: This study aimed at investigating the effects of vehicle impact velocity, vehicle front-end shape, and pedestrian size on injury risk to pedestrians in collisions with passenger vehicles with various frontal shapes. Method: A series of parametric studies was carried out using 2 total human model for safety (THUMS) pedestrian models (177 and 165?cm) and 4 vehicle finite element (FE) models with different front-end shapes (medium-size sedan, minicar, one-box vehicle, and sport utility vehicle [SUV]). The effects of the impact velocity on pedestrian injury risk were analyzed at velocities of 20, 30, 40, and 50?km/h. The dynamic response of the pedestrian was investigated, and the injury risk to the head, chest, pelvis, and lower extremities was compared in terms of the injury parameters head injury criteria (HIC), chest deflection, and von Mises stress distribution of the rib cage, pelvis force, and bending moment diagram of the lower extremities. Result: Vehicle impact velocity has the most significant influence on injury severity for adult pedestrians. All injury parameters can be reduced in severity by decreasing vehicle impact velocities. The head and lower extremities are at greater risk of injury in medium-size sedan and SUV collisions. The chest injury risk was particularly high in one-box vehicle impacts. The fracture risk of the pelvis was also high in one-box vehicle and SUV collisions. In minicar collisions, the injury risk was the smallest if the head did not make contact with the A-pillar. Conclusion: The vehicle impact velocity and vehicle front-end shape are 2 dominant factors that influence the pedestrian kinematics and injury severity. A significant reduction of all injuries can be achieved for all vehicle types when the vehicle impact velocity is less than 30?km/h. Vehicle designs consisting of a short front-end and a wide windshield area can protect pedestrians from fatalities. The results also could be valuable in the design of a pedestrian-friendly vehicle front-end shape. [Supplementary materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Traffic Injury Prevention for the following free supplemental resource: Head impact conditions and injury parameters in four-type vehicle collisions and validation result of the finite element model of one-box vehicle and minicar. ].     

Modeling pedestrian gap crossing index under mixed traffic condition

IntroductionThere are a variety of challenges faced by pedestrians when they walk along and attempt to cross a road, as the most recorded accidents occur during this time. Pedestrians of all types, including both sexes with numerous aging groups, are always subjected to risk and are characterized as the most exposed road users. The increased demand for better traffic management strategies to reduce the risks at intersections, improve quality traffic management, traffic volume, and longer cycle time has further increased concerns over the past decade.MethodThis paper aims to develop a sustainable pedestrian gap crossing index model based on traffic flow density. It focusses on the gaps accepted by pedestrians and their decision for street crossing, where (Log-Gap) logarithm of accepted gaps was used to optimize the result of a model for gap crossing behavior. Through a review of extant literature, 15 influential variables were extracted for further empirical analysis. Subsequently, data from the observation at an uncontrolled mid-block in Jalan Ampang in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia was gathered and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Binary Logit Model (BLM) techniques were employed to analyze the results.Results and conclusionsFrom the results, different pedestrian behavioral characteristics were considered for a minimum gap size model, out of which only a few (four) variables could explain the pedestrian road crossing behavior while the remaining variables have an insignificant effect. Among the different variables, age, rolling gap, vehicle type, and crossing were the most influential variables. The study concludes that pedestrians’ decision to cross the street depends on the pedestrian age, rolling gap, vehicle type, and size of traffic gap before crossing.Practical applicationsThe inferences from these models will be useful to increase pedestrian safety and performance evaluation of uncontrolled midblock road crossings in developing countries.     

Estimating the value of life and injury for pedestrians using a stated preference framework

IntroductionThe incidence of pedestrian death over the period 2010 to 2014 per 1000,000 in North Cyprus is about 2.5 times that of the EU, with 10.5 times more pedestrian road injuries than deaths. With the prospect of North Cyprus entering the EU, many investments need to be undertaken to improve road safety in order to reach EU benchmarks.MethodWe conducted a stated choice experiment to identify the preferences and tradeoffs of pedestrians in North Cyprus for improved walking times, pedestrian costs, and safety. The choice of route was examined using mixed logit models to obtain the marginal utilities associated with each attribute of the routes that consumers chose. These were used to estimate the individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) to save walking time and to avoid pedestrian fatalities and injuries. We then used the results to obtain community-wide estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL) saved, the value of an injury (VI) prevented, and the value per hour of walking time saved.ResultsThe estimate of the VSL was €699,434 and the estimate of VI was €20,077. These values are consistent, after adjusting for differences in incomes, with the median results of similar studies done for EU countries. The estimated value of time to pedestrians is €7.20 per person hour.ConclusionsThe ratio of deaths to injuries is much higher for pedestrians than for road accidents, and this is completely consistent with the higher estimated WTP to avoid a pedestrian accident than to avoid a car accident. The value of time of €7.20 is quite high relative to the wages earned.Practical applicationsFindings provide a set of information on the VRR for fatalities and injuries and the value of pedestrian time that is critical for conducing ex ante appraisals of investments to improve pedestrian safety.     

信号控制交叉口行人过街等待时间研究

为保护行人过街时的安全及减少行人违章行为,通过分析行人过街的等待规律,构建了信号控制行人过街等待的生存分析方法。对上海市典型交叉口的行人过街等待行为的观测及分析,得到了行人等待的生存曲线,建立了行人违章危险度随行人自身及环境因素影响的COX风险回归模型。结果表明:行人在路边等待过街最大可忍受等待时间为90s,在中间安全岛的最大可忍受等待时间仅为50s;行人等待时间与行人年龄、红灯时间、穿越车道数、冲突方向车流量、是否二次过街相关,与行人性别无关;合理的交叉口设计和信号控制能提高行人的遵章率、降低违章危险度。笔者建议:信号控制交叉口行人红灯时间不超过90s,行人在安全岛最大等待时间不超过50s。     

Using retro-reflective cloth to enhance drivers’ judgment of pedestrian walking direction at night-time

Purpose: Fatal pedestrian collisions are over-represented at night and poor conspicuity is believed to be a leading causative factor. Retro-reflective clothing enhances pedestrian conspicuity, particularly when placed in a biological motion or “biomotion” configuration. In this study, we explored how various retro-reflective clothing configurations affected the ability to judge the direction of a pedestrian walking across the road, which has important implications for collision avoidance. Methods: Participants included 21 young drivers (mean age 21.6 ± 2.0 years) with normal vision. A closed-road circuit was used to assess the accuracy of drivers’ judgement of the direction of walking of a pedestrian at night-time wearing one of five different clothing configurations: four with retro-reflective materials placed in different locations (Biomotion, Legs + Torso, Torso Only, Legs Only), and a control wearing only black clothing (Street). Participants were seated in a stationary vehicle with low beam headlamps, 135 m from a pedestrian, who walked across the road from both sides, in different directions (towards the car, straight across the road, or away from the car). Outcome measures included drivers’ response accuracy and confidence ratings for judging pedestrian walking direction. Results: Accuracy in judging pedestrian walking direction differed significantly across the clothing configurations (p < 0.001). Response accuracy was significantly higher for the Biomotion configuration (80% correct), compared to the other retro-reflective (Legs + Torso 64%; Torso Only 53%; Legs Only 50%) and Street configurations (33%). Similar trends were noted for confidence ratings across the clothing conditions, yet the relationship between confidence ratings and response accuracy within each clothing configurations was poor. Conclusions: The use of retro-reflective clothing in a biomotion configuration facilitated the highest accuracy and confidence in drivers’ judgment of pedestrian walking direction, compared to other configurations. These findings highlight the importance of using biomotion clothing for pedestrians at night, to not only facilitate drivers’ earlier recognition of pedestrians, but also increase their accuracy in determining the walking direction of pedestrians as they cross the road. Practical applications: The use of clothing incorporating retro-reflective material in a biomotion configuration for pedestrians crossing roads at night provides enhanced cues for drivers regarding the presence and walking direction of pedestrians.     

Study on mechanics of crowd jam based on the cusp-catastrophe model

Some characteristics of crowd jam like the phenomena of discontinuous jumping in reality are hard to be explained by the equations governing pedestrians. The catastrophe theory can explain these characteristics. A cusp-catastrophe model is developed to analyze the mechanics of crowd jam by drawing graphs for a cusp-catastrophe model of crowd, the bifurcation set and the projection of catastrophe model. Meanwhile, the critical density and the critical velocity are derived. It is concluded that the cusp model is a more efficient predictor than the linear model or the equations governing pedestrians and is reasonably realistic for dense crowd flow scenarios.     

Finite Element Analysis of Knee Injury Risks in Car-to-Pedestrian Impacts

In vehicle–pedestrian collisions, lower extremities of pedestrians are frequently injured by vehicle front structures. In this study, a finite element (FE) model of THUMS (total human model for safety) was modified in order to assess injuries to a pedestrian lower extremity. Dynamic impact responses of the knee joint of the FE model were validated on the basis of data from the literature. Since in real-world accidents, the vehicle bumper can impact the lower extremities in various situations, the relations between lower extremity injury risk and impact conditions, such as between impact location, angle, and impactor stiffness, were analyzed. The FE simulation demonstrated that the motion of the lower extremity may be classified into a contact effect of the impactor and an inertia effect from a thigh or leg. In the contact phase, the stress of the bone is high in the area contacted by the impactor, which can cause fracture. Thus, in this phase the impactor stiffness affects the fracture risk of bone. In the inertia phase, the behavior of the lower extremity depends on the impact locations and angles, and the knee ligament forces become high according to the lower extremity behavior. The force of the collateral ligament is high compared with other knee ligaments, due to knee valgus motions in vehicle-pedestrian collisions.     

九曲桥行人运动实验与模拟研究

公共场所中的人群疏散是行人疏散动力学研究中的重要内容。基于九曲桥行人运动观测实验对转角区域的行人运动特征进行研究,并利用人员疏散模拟软件Pathfinder模拟了因激励作用所导致的行人速度提高对通行效率的影响。结果表明,由于行人的停留、拍照行为导致转角内区域出现了明显的行人变换走道现象;行人在转角内区域出现的停留、超越行为导致行人速度出现大幅度波动,最低速度约为0.2 m/s,最高速度约为0.7 m/s;与转角后区域相比,行人密度变化对转角内区域的行人速度的影响更小,单位流量的影响更大;由于观测实验中行人停留、拍照等行为的存在,相同密度下转角后区域行人运动速度、单位流量均低于P&M平直通道模型;适当的激励作用有助于减轻行人拥堵,提高通行效率,当行人速度达到较高水平后效果不再显著。     

Head injuries in child pedestrian accidents--in-depth case analysis and reconstructions

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate head injuries, injury risks, and corresponding tolerance levels of children in car-to--child pedestrian collisions. METHODS: An in-depth accident analysis was carried out based on 23 accident cases involving child pedestrians. These cases were collected with detailed information about pedestrians, cars, and road environments. All 23 accidents were reconstructed using the MADYMO program with mathematical models of passenger cars and child pedestrians developed at Chalmers University of Technology. The contact properties of the car models were derived from the European New Car Assessment Program (EuroNCAP) subsystem tests. RESULTS: The accident analysis demonstrated that the head was the most frequently and severely injured body part of child pedestrians. Most accidents occurred at impact speeds lower than 40 km/h and 98% of the child pedestrians were impacted from the lateral direction. The initial postures of children at the moment of impact were identified. Nearly half (47%) of the children were running, which was remarkable compared with the situation of adult pedestrians. From accident reconstructions it was found that head impact conditions and injury severities were dependent on the shape and stiffness of the car front, impact velocity, and stature of the child pedestrian. Head injury criteria and corresponding tolerance levels were analyzed and discussed by correlating the calculated injury parameters with the injury outcomes in the accidents. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing head injuries should be set as a priority in the protection of child pedestrians. HIC is an important injury criterion for predicting the risks of head injuries in child pedestrian accidents. The tolerance level of head injuries can have a considerable variation due to individual differences of the child pedestrians. By setting a suitable speed limit and improving the design of car front, the head injury severities of child pedestrians can be reduced.     

Investigation of head injuries by reconstructions of real-world vehicle-versus-adult-pedestrian accidents

A sizeable proportion of adult pedestrians involved in vehicle-versus-pedestrian accidents suffer head injuries, some of which can lead to lifelong disability or even death. To understand head injury mechanisms, in-depth accident analyses and accident reconstructions were conducted. A total of 120 adult pedestrian accident cases from the GIDAS (German in-depth accident study) database were analyzed, from which 10 were selected for reconstruction. Accident reconstructions initially were performed using multi-body system (MBS) pedestrian and car models, so as to calculate head impact conditions, like head impact velocity, head position and head orientation. These impact conditions then were used to set the initial conditions in a simulation of a head striking a windshield, using finite element (FE) head and windshield models. The intracranial pressure and stress distributions of the FE head model were calculated and correlated with injury outcomes. Accident analysis revealed that the windshield and its surrounding frames were the main sources of head injury for adult pedestrians. Reconstruction results indicated that coup/contrecoup pressure, Von Mises and shear stress were important physical parameters to estimate brain injury risks.     

Sight obstruction at at-grade pedestrian crossings: A review of the understanding of the meaning of zigzag lines

Parked and stopped vehicles in the vicinity of an at-grade pedestrian crossing obstruct visibility between pedestrians crossing the roadway and approaching vehicles, leading into vehicle–pedestrian crashes. Pavement zigzag line markings at at-grade pedestrian crossings, mostly at mid-block locations are used to restrict parking, stopping, and overtaking within the crossing, to enhance driver–pedestrian visibility. Yet, in some countries zigzag lines are used as advance markings to the crossing. Like any other traffic control device, zigzag lines’ effectiveness hinges on road user’s understanding of their meanings.This paper reviews the literature on the applications and understanding of these lines at pedestrian crossings. The meaning of zigzag line pavement markings at pedestrian crossings has not been well understood to some road users and road safety stakeholders worldwide. This dilemma may suggest that educating road users, especially drivers, may be necessary in order to improve pedestrian safety. Documented literature such as this one may also improve the understanding of these lines to road safety stakeholders. Despite of the importance of unobstructed sight between the pedestrian and the driver, treatments in the forms of signs and pavement markings require continuous education and enforcement. Practicing traffic engineers may want to place more emphasis on engineering treatments that are more effective in improving pedestrian safety, such as those that manages vehicle speeds, than relying heavily on traffic control devices that are often misunderstood and lesser effective such as zigzag lines.