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Nipawan Thirawat Sirikamon Udompol Pathomdanai Ponjan 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2017,22(7):1021-1039
The objectives of this research are to investigate resource loss effects from flooding and to provide recommendations on disaster risk reduction policies. This research utilized a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which found that losses of resources had major negative impacts on real gross domestic product (GDP). Transitioning from national catastrophe insurance fund to an international risk pooling approach is discussed, and as the Global Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility has not yet been established, our proposal suggests the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus three (ASEAN?+?3) Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (ACRIF) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus three catastrophic bonds (ASEAN?+?3 CAT bonds) as effective means of reducing fiscal liabilities arising from natural disasters, also effectively enhancing disaster risk reduction. These tools are complementary to Catastrophe Risk Swaps which are innovative global financial adaptation strategies designed to make communities and governments more resilient to disaster damages. They are ex-ante risk financing tools and sources of liquidity for damage restoration and economic recovery, which facilitates flexibility among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus three (ASEAN?+?3) and other governments requiring special assistance. Most importantly, utilization of insurance and catastrophic bonds promotes the achievement of set objectives of global adaptation strategies, sustainable economic growth, and climate resilient development. 相似文献
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基于风险场的区域突发性环境风险评价方法研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
在大尺度空间,风险源、风险受体和风险传播途径的多样性和相互作用的复杂性是区域环境风险评价的难点.同时,现有评价方法很少关注风险因子的释放规律,释放后在空间中的分布格局,以及风险受体受到损害的途径和程度.本文应用风险场理论,分析描述风险场形成和对风险受体作用的机制.结合南京化工园区实例进行环境风险源识别,采用集对分析等方法构建了各风险源产生的环境风险场,再分析处于风险场中的环境风险受体,最后得到区域环境风险水平分布,同时将其划分为5个等级.评价结果显示,位于风险源周围或河道下游的人口稠密、生态环境敏感地区环境风险值R≥6,风险水平处于极高、高等级,与园区现状具有较好的一致性.建议依据环境风险水平的分级、分类结果建立起以预防为主的环境风险管理体系. 相似文献
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进口废物原料,既可以对我国生产原料起到补充作用,又可以使得原料的材料成本大幅度降低.但是进口废物原料始终存在着严重影响生态环境和人体健康的危险因素,如果不加以控制和检验监管,那么必然会对我国经济可持续发展、环境保护、人民身体健康造成严重威胁.本文首先分析了进口废物原料的危险因素,其次,结合笔者的实际工作经验,就如何加强进口废物原料的风险控制进行了较为深入的探讨,提出了自己的建议和看法,具有一定的参考价值. 相似文献
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环境风险区划是区域布局型环境风险管理及环境风险分区管理的重要手段.本研究在环境风险系统理论的指导下,借鉴“自上而下”和“自下而上”传统区划方对上海市突发环境风险进行区划研究.上海市突发环境风险区划中“自上而下”环境风险一级区的划分是依据上海市1990~2008年突发污染事故历史时空格局获得;而“自下而上”是通过构建上海市风险区划指标体系,在对指标进行概念模型量化的基础上,运用基于遗传算法的K均值聚类在最小区划单元进行聚类区划,并依据上海市政府宏观规划对聚类后的图斑碎块进行科学性和实用性调整,获得上海市突发环境污染事故风险亚区和小区;将上海市突发环境风险一级区及亚区和小区集成分析,实现上海市突发环境污染事故风险综合区划.结果表明:上海市突发环境污染事故风险区划包含2个风险一级区,5个风险亚区和21个风险小区,客观揭示了上海市突发环境污染事故风险的空间分布规律.针对上海市布局型环境风险和不同风险区提出相应的管理措施,为上海市综合减灾降险和风险管理决策提供科学依据. 相似文献
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Phil Cottle 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(1):181-201
The author uses his own data gleaned from over 10 years of commercial forestry insurance across the world to propose that
despite a low intrinsic fire risk across most of Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia, commercial fire losses are unacceptably
high, and could be reduced substantially within the current financial legal and political framework within which forestry
companies operate.
Opening with a statement about the dearth of forest fire loss data in the commercial sector, it is observed that the consequent
inability of general insurers to estimate the rate of fire loss leads to very low insurance participation in forestry within
Indonesia. A summary is then provided of the financial and environmental benefits of insurance participation in commercial
forestry were this situation to be changed.
A short discussion on risk perceptions is introduced to make the point that without reliable commercial forest fire loss data,
risk perceptions of fire exposure in Southeast Asia by the financial sector, including insurers, is a barrier to risk transfer
and investment. While real fire risk and perceived fire risk for Indonesia seem at present to be in agreement, the paper challenges
that this should the case.
Comparisons are made with different parts of the world with the knowledge that, in commercial terms, plantations in the low
latitudes behave similarly everywhere in terms of fire causes, fire propagation factors, and characteristics of plantation
or managed mixed forest fires. A review of the fire sizes within commercial forests is a good indicator of the efficiency
of fire management strategies, and profiles from a high fire risk territory and Indonesia are compared.
Using commercial and unidentified data the author then demonstrates that commercial growers in Indonesia have a high annual
rate of forest fire loss and may also have a significant catastrophe fire exposure. This ‘cat’ exposure is far greater than
for equivalent plantations in clearly higher fire risk environments. These conclusions are and should be discussed with forestry
companies to change attitude and investment levels.
Practical points for improved plantation fire management are made along with comments about the resources required. A parallel
discussion then reviews fire risk assessment and management by the insurers to prevent their own ‘forest fire’ losses if they
are to get further involved with the provision of Indonesian commercial forest risk transfer. The explanation of how insurers
price risk within a portfolio helps identify the specific data needed for a proper risk management strategy to be developed. 相似文献
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Thomas Schinko Reinhard Mechler Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2017,22(7):1063-1086
Despite considerable uncertainties regarding the exact contribution of anthropogenic climate change to disaster risk, rising losses from extreme events have highlighted the need to comprehensively address climate-related risk. This requires linking climate adaptation to disaster risk management (DRM), leading to what has been broadly referred to as climate risk management (CRM). While this concept has received attention in debate, important gaps remain in terms of operationalizing it with applicable methods and tools for specific risks and decision-contexts. By developing and applying a methodological approach to CRM in the decision context of sovereign risk (flooding) in Austria we test the usefulness of CRM, and based on these insights, inform applications in other decision contexts. Our methodological approach builds on multiple lines of evidence and methods. These comprise of a broad stakeholder engagement process, empirical analysis of public budgets, and risk-focused economic modelling. We find that a CRM framework is able to inform instrumental as well as reflexive and participatory debate in practice. Due to the complex interaction of social–ecological systems with climate risks, and taking into account the likelihood of future contingent climate-related fiscal liabilities increasing substantially as a result of socioeconomic developments and climate change, we identify the need for advanced learning processes and iterative updates of CRM management plans. We suggest that strategies comprising a portfolio of policy measures to reduce and manage climate-related risks are particularly effective if they tailor individual instruments to the specific requirements of different risk layers. 相似文献
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通过了解国内外化学污染事故的现状,分析了化学污染事故的严重性及其特征,结合我国现有的环境风险管理状况,探讨了化学污染事故环境风险管理的途径。 相似文献
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《Environmental Science & Policy》2000,3(1):31-38
Risk-cost trade-offs are deemed to provide a basis for selecting between those risk reductions which are economic and those which are non-economic. Insufficient work has been done in environmental risk management decision-making practice to validate this assumption, or to develop an analytical framework within which it may be employed. Empirical evidence from the literature is offered for the existence of risk-cost trade-offs and the relationship of risk-cost trade-offs to the benefits side of the management decision-making issue is discussed. The risk-cost trade-off curve alone does not provide a complete basis for selecting between economic and non-economic risk-cost combinations. When combined with information on the willingness-to-pay for risk reductions, the risk-cost trade-off curve may be used to distinguish between risk reduction possibilities in a risk management decision-making context. Results allow for a more developed theoretical decision- making framework that, when amended for uncertainty, produces decision criteria useful for environmental risk management decision-making. 相似文献
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现有的生态风险评价方法主要围绕特定物质或特定受体,难以用于以生态系统为对象的管理.本研究依照系统生态学与复杂系统的理论概念,采取以“生态系统服务”作为生态系统水平的风险评价终点的做法,通过量化外界压力与生态系统服务的“压力-响应”模式,建立了基于生态系统水平的生态风险评价方法,并以黄河为案例说明这一方法的应用.结果显示,黄河生态系统的保护需要重点关注中下游河段,主要的风险源为城市和农业面源,需要重点保护生境及生物类目标.结果表明所建立的评价方法可为促进基于生态系统的河流管理提供技术支持. 相似文献
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Understanding the ecological factors that affect dispersal distances allows us to predict the consequences of dispersal. Although predator avoidance is an important cause of prey dispersal, its effects on dispersal distance have not been investigated. We used simple experimental setups to test dispersal distances of the ambulatory dispersing spider mite (Tetranychus kanzawai) in the presence or absence of a predator (Neoseiulus womersleyi). In the absence of predators, most spider mites settled in adjacent patches, whereas the majority of those dispersing in the presence of predators passed through adjacent patches and settled in distant ones. This is the first study to experimentally demonstrate that predators induce greater dispersal distance in prey. 相似文献