The tenth dragon: controlled seasonal flooding in long-term policy plans for the Vietnamese Mekong delta

Recently the Vietnamese government has endorsed a long-term policy plan in which it is proposed to restore controlled seasonal flooding in the upper regions of the Vietnamese part of the Mekong delta. Restoring controlled flooding would contrast a period of several decades characterized by a dominant flood prevention approach to enable intensive rice production in the delta. This article investigates a series of long-term policy plans, which have been developed for the Mekong delta since the 1960s, on their take on flood control sensu flood prevention, or the opposite, controlled seasonal flooding. By doing so it is demonstrated how perspectives on flood management have gradually evolved and, in the specific case of suggesting controlled flooding, have been framed in various ways by various actors. Contemporary proposals for controlled seasonal flooding are supported by actors ranging from governmental institutes to environmental NGOs, and connect to on-going debates about environmental challenges and sustainable development of the Mekong delta. We adopt a systems approach to analyze social, environmental and technological dynamics in the Mekong delta, and discuss whether the different interpretations of controlled flooding may contribute to the long-term sustainability of the delta.     

Developing a GIS based integrated approach to flood management in Trinidad, West Indies

Trinidad and Tobago is plagued with a perennial flooding problem. The higher levels of rainfall in the wet season often lead to extensive flooding in the low-lying areas of the country. This has lead to significant damage to livestock, agricultural produce, homes and businesses particularly in the Caparo River Basin. Clearly, there is a need for developing flood mitigation and management strategies to manage flooding in the areas most affected. This paper utilizes geographic information systems to map the extent of the flooding, estimate soil loss due to erosion and estimate sediment loading in the rivers in the Caparo River Basin. In addition, the project required the development of a watershed management plan and a flood control plan. The results indicate that flooding was caused by several factors including clear cutting of vegetative cover, especially in areas of steep slopes that lead to sediment filled rivers and narrow waterways. Other factors include poor agricultural practices, and uncontrolled development in floodplains. Recommendations to manage floods in the Caparo River Basin have been provided.     

Assessing options for the development of surface water flood warning in England and Wales

This paper explores the technical options for warning of surface water flooding in England and Wales and presents the results of an Environment Agency funded project. Following the extensive surface water flooding experienced in summer 2007 a rainfall threshold-based Extreme Rainfall Alert (ERA) was piloted by the Met Office and Environment Agency providing initial steps towards the establishment of a warning for some types of surface water flooding. The findings of this paper are based primarily on feedback on technical options from a range of professionals involved in flood forecasting and warning and flood risk management, about the current alerts and about the potential options for developing a more targeted surface water flood warning service. Providing surface water flooding warnings presents a set of technical, forecasting and warning challenges related to the rapid onset of flooding, the localised nature of the flooding, and the linking of rainfall and flood forecasts to flood likelihood and impact on the ground. Some examples of rainfall alerting and surface water flood warning services from other countries are evaluated, as well as a small number of recently implemented local services in England and Wales. Various potential options for implementation of a service are then explored and assessed. The paper concludes that development of a surface water flood warning service for England and Wales is feasible and is likely to be useful to emergency responders and operational agencies, although developing such a service for the pluvial components of this type of flooding is likely to be feasible sooner than for other components of surface water flooding such as that caused by sewers. A targeted surface water flood warning service could be developed for professional emergency responders in the first instance rather than for the public for whom such a service without further operational testing and piloting would be premature.     

Flood area and damage estimation in Zhejiang,China

A GIS-based method to estimate flood area and damage is presented in this paper, which is oriented to developing countries like China, where labor is readily available for GIS data collecting, and tools such as, HEC-GeoRAS might not be readily available. At present local authorities in developing countries are often not predisposed to pay for commercial GIS platforms. To calculate flood area, two cases, non-source flood and source flood, are distinguished and a seed-spread algorithm suitable for source-flooding is described. The flood damage estimation is calculated in raster format by overlaying the flood area range with thematic maps and relating this to other socioeconomic data. Several measures used to improve the geometric accuracy and computing efficiency are presented. The management issues related to the application of this method, including the cost-effectiveness of approximate method in practice and supplementing two technical lines (self-programming and adopting commercial GIS software) to each other, are also discussed. The applications show that this approach has practical significance to flood fighting and control in developing countries like China.     

Social Dimensions of Urban Flood Experience,Exposure, and Concern

With growing urban populations and climate change, urban flooding is an important global issue, even in dryland regions. Flood risk assessments are usually used to identify vulnerable locations and populations, flooding experience patterns, or levels of concern about flooding, but rarely are all of these approaches combined. Furthermore, the social dynamics of flood concerns, exposure, and experience are underexplored. We combined geographic and survey data on household‐level measures of flood experience, concern, and exposure in Utah's urbanizing Wasatch Front. We asked: (1) Are socially vulnerable groups more likely to be exposed to flood risk? (2) How common are flooding experiences among urban residents, and how are these experiences related to sociodemographic characteristics and exposure? and (3) How concerned are urban residents about flooding, and does concern vary by exposure, flood experience, and sociodemographic characteristics? Although floodplain residents were more likely to be White and have higher incomes, respondents who were of a racial/ethnic minority, were older, had less education, and were living in floodplains were more likely to report flood experiences and concern about flooding. Flood risk management approaches need to address social as well as physical sources of vulnerability to floods and recognize social sources of variation in flood experiences and concern.     

A framework for evaluation of flood management strategies

The resulting impact of disasters on society depends on the affected country's economic strength prior to the disaster. The larger the disaster and the smaller the economy, the more significant is the impact. This is clearest seen in developing countries, where weak economies become even weaker afterwards. Deliberate strategies for the sharing of losses from hazardous events may aid a country or a community in efficiently using scarce prevention and mitigation resources, thus being better prepared for the effects of a disaster. Nevertheless, many governments lack an adequate institutional system for applying cost effective and reliable technologies for disaster prevention, early warnings, and mitigation. Modelling by event analyses and strategy models is one way of planning ahead, but these models have so far not been linked together. An approach to this problem was taken during a large study in Hungary, the Tisza case study, where a number of policy strategies for spreading of flood loss were formulated. In these strategies, a set of parameters of particular interest were extracted from interviews with stakeholders in the region. However, the study was focused on emerging economies, and, in particular, on insurance strategies. The scope is now extended to become a functional framework also for developing countries. In general, they have a higher degree of vulnerability. The paper takes northern Vietnam as an example of a developing region. We identify important parameters and discuss their importance for flood strategy formulations. Based on the policy strategies in the Tisza case, we extract data from the strategies and propose a framework for loss spread in developing and emerging economies. The parameter set can straightforwardly be included in a simulation and decision model for policy formulation and evaluation, taking multiple stakeholders into account.     

Flooding and erosion hazards on the ontario great lakes shoreline: a human ecological approach to planning and management

Understanding flood and erosion hazards in the context of developing coastal management plans requires an appreciation for variations in climate, geology, vegetation, land uses, human activities and institutional arrangements. On the Great Lakes, fluctuating water levels are characterized by temporal variations in their magnitude and frequency and their impact on flooding and erosion also differ from site to site. The traditional planning and management mechanisms in Ontario, through the use of emergency responses and land use setbacks, have been insufficient in resolving the rising costs of damage to property due to flooding and erosion along the Great Lakes shoreline. There is a need to develop an alternative management model with a focus on understanding hazards in the context of their natural and human components. A case study of the preparation of a resource survey for the Saugeen Valley Conservation Authority illustrates the development of a human ecological approach and its applicability in developing shoreline management plans for the Great Lakes.     

THE LEVEE LOVE AFFAIR: A STORMY RELATIONSHIP?1

ABSTRACT: A history of flood control in the United States shows an undying affair with levees. This love affair, however, was put severely to the test by the record flooding in the summer of 1993. About 70 percent of levees in the upper Midwest failed during this time, leading to extensive damage to both farmland and urban areas. Consequently, there were repeated calls to re-assess the nation's floodplain management policies. The report of the Intera-gency Floodplain Management Review Committee is one outcome of this and it forms the basis of this commentary on levees. In many respects, levees are effective flood control measures, being relatively cheap to implement and easy to build. At the same time, levees have negative impacts, affecting the hydrological regime both up and down stream, and often exacerbating flooding in other places. Furthermore, technical weaknesses in design, planning, construction, and maintenance have all contributed to levee failures. While the report recommends changes in floodplain management to address some of these issues, it is difficult to see how these will materialize given the current political, economic, and social climate.     

FLOOD MANAGEMENT IN THE LOWER INCOMATI RIVER BASIN,MOZAMBIQUE: TWO ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is to compare two views of flood management and thus add to the present thinking of living with floods as opposed to the traditional approach of flood control. The traditional pathway has widely been adopted in developed countries and aims to control floodwaters by means of dams and dikes. The alternative pathway tends towards a policy whereby society lives with the floods by being prepared and having the right damage reduction measures in place. In this paper two pathways are tentatively compared for the Lower Incomati Basin, Mozambique. In the design cultural theory is considered, as is how the design of each path may look according to different management perspectives. The Lower Incomati Basin provides an interesting case study as it is in a relatively undeveloped state. Hence, it is an ideal area for conducting research into the application of alternative flood management strategies. The preliminary results suggest that both pathways are feasible. However, considering recent hydrological extremes such as the 2000 floods, the resilient pathway may ultimately be a more appealing flood management strategy.     

WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR FLOOD RISK REDUCTION AND ITS DETERMINANTS IN JAPAN1

ABSTRACT: This study aimed to clarify public preferences for flood control measures in Japan, willingness to pay (WTP), and the main factors involved in WTP by applying the contingent valuation method. Findings showed that most residents surveyed expected some flood control measures, and revealed a diversity of interest in river management. WTP levels for different measures ranged from a mean of ¥2,887 to ¥4,861 and from a median of ¥1,000 to ¥2,000. However, WTP for additional flood risk reduction beyond initial levels was found to be zero. This was considered to be because WTP for flood risk reduction must be determined within a multi‐risk context. WTP for flood control measures may increase with per capita income, individual preparedness, and/or experience with flooding, but may decrease with distance from a river, acceptability of flood risk, and provision of environmental information. Furthermore, perception of flood risk may increase WTP, while perception of other risks may decrease it. Methods of dealing with environmental risk that were proposed in the survey may have affected WTP levels.     

Do the poor have what they need to adapt to climate change? A case study of Nepal

Nepal's geographical landscape of plains, hills, and mountains exposes it to severe climatic conditions. Out of the three regions, the plain, also called Terai, has the greatest risk of flooding, especially during the monsoon season when heavy precipitation coincides with snow and glacier melting from the mountains and hills. In recent years, greater water availability has increased the frequency of flooding, destroying farms, livestock, and infrastructure, hence, reducing agricultural productivity and disrupting economic activities. What makes Nepal a unique case study for climate change is its richness in water resources, propensity to flood, the percentage of poor people living in the flood prone region, and their dependency on natural resources. The lessons drawn can help when formulating pro-poor adaptation policies for other Asian and many developing countries that are as diverse, poor, and agrarian as Nepal. Using data collected through survey interviews, the study examines the ability of the poor to adapt to climate change. The study also explores the adaptive capacity of communities in the Koshi Tappu area, by examining whether or not they have the required capital assets (human, social, natural, physical, and financial capital) to remain resilient in the face of continuous climate events impacts.     

NEW DIRECTIONS IN FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Over the last 30 years, average annual riverine flood damages have exceed $2 billion. Damages associated with the Mississippi River Flood of 1993 exceeded $12 billion and these costs do not include the non-quantifiable, human impacts of this disaster. In a report submitted to the White House in June 1994, a federal interagency floodplain management review committee proposed better ways to manage the nation's floodplains. The committee indicated that the 1993 Mississippi River flood was the result of a significant hydrometeorological event, that federal flood control efforts in the Mississippi basin had prevented nearly $20 billion in potential damages, and that, in spite of federal flood damage reduction efforts, throughout the nation people and property remain at risk to inevitable future flooding. It recommended that the division of decision and cost-sharing responsibilities among federal, state and local governments be more clearly defined, and that the nation adopt a strategy of, sequentially, avoiding inappropriate use of the flood-plain, minimizing vulnerability to damage through both nonstruc-tural and structural means, and mitigating damages as they occur. The report did not call for abandonment of human use of the flood-plain but argued for full consideration of the economic, social and environmental costs and benefits of all future floodplain activity.     

Confronting flood risk: implications for insurance and risk transfer

The UK floods in late 2000 reinforced an emerging awareness which questioned the long-term sustainability of an exclusive reliance on hard-engineered flood defences to protect the UK population against increased flood risk. The debate has subsequently focused on a broader interpretation of the risks associated with flooding. This paper explores the notion that, although social and technical issues are already being integrated to understand and manage flood, practitioners are now realising the importance of accommodating public hazard understanding and perception of risk into their management models, and there remains a need to fit such ideas to the insurance-based system of flood management in the UK.     

COMPREHENSIVE FLOOD PLAIN MANAGEMENT1

Flooding and the susceptibility to flood damage inherent in all land uses constitute the flood hazard. Resolution of the hazard while properly recognizing flood plain environmental attributes within the context of overall community or area needs is the essence of comprehensive flood plain management. The traditional approach–flood control–has effected modification of only the flooding component of the hazard whether it be coastal or inland. Until recently Federal programs have overlooked the possibilities of modifying the susceptibility component, for which the major responsibility lies with non-Federal interests. Beginning with actions in the TVA area, the latter is now being strongly encouraged through Federal programs and actions notably the Flood Plain Management Services and Survey Programs of the Corps of Engineers, those stemming from Executive Order 11296, and those required for eligibility under the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968. Flood plain management objectives must be stated in planning, e.g., economic efficiency, reduction in threat to life and health, environmental improvement, and regional development, to permit proper evaluation of the optional means and approaches for achieving them.     

Stakeholders' views towards flood risk management in the Paz River catchment area of Guatemala and El Salvador

The river Paz is a transboundary river that flows through Guatemala and El Salvador. Its frequent floods endanger the lives and livelihoods of downstream communities. Attempts have previously been made to develop flood management programmes for this watershed. However, these approaches were generally made by high-level governmental institutions with few if any contributions from floodplain communities and other stakeholders. Recognising that public consultation is a key aspect in flood management programmes, we intend in this work to extract different stakeholders' views regarding current and future flooding and flood management programmes in the Paz River basin. This is achieved using Future Scenarios Workshops with a projected time horizon of 30 years. The exercise was expected to identify consensual short- and medium–long-term flood management strategies for the Paz River basin that draws on input from inhabitants of flood-prone areas and other stakeholders.     

CLIMATE FORECASTS IN FLOOD PLANNING: PROMISE AND AMBIGUITY1

ABSTRACT: Recent technical and scientific advances have increased the potential use of long term, seasonal climate forecasts for improving water resource management. This paper examines the role that forecasts, in particular those based on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, can play in flood planning in the Pacific Northwest. While strong evidence exists of an association between ENSO signals and flooding in the region, this association is open to more than one interpretation depending on: (a) the metric used to test the strength of the association; (b) the definition of critical flood events; (c) site specific features of watersheds; and (d) the decision environment of flood management institutions. A better understanding and appreciation of such ambiguities, both social and statistical, will help facilitate the use of climate forecast information for flood planning and response.     

THE HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING CENTER EXPERIENCE IN NONSTRUCTURAL PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: The Hydrologic Engineering Center, Corps of Engineers, has been engaged in research, training, and project assistance in non-structural flood control planning for Corps offices across the United States since 1975. Lessons learned from this experience deal with the role of nonstructural measures in flood plain management, the role of creativity in analysis, the role of analysis, and tools for analysis. The role of nonstructural measures in flood control planning depends upon the scale of the problem, the nature of the measure, the degree of protection desired, and whether damage is to existing or future property. An earnest seeking for nonstructural opportunities, a field presence for their formulation, and compatbility with local infrastructure plans are prerequisite to creative use of nonstructural measures. Analysis is a necessary complement of creativity. Several tools for nonstructural analysis have been developed and applied to flood problems involving several hundred and several thousand structures.     

Coastal flooding, global warming and environmental management

A review of the difficulties associated with the definition of coastal flood frequencies and magnitudes leads to a recognition that there is considerable doubt in many parts of the world as to the precise nature of this particular hazard. Similarly, a review of the sea-level measurements that have been used to indicate a response to global warming shows that there is uncertainty about the amount of other controlling influences. What is clear, however, are that past management decisions about human endeavours in the coastal zone (including flood defences, occupance of flood-prone lands, extraction of ground water and natural gas) have had an impact on relative land and sea levels and have done more to increase the risk of coastal flooding than can be assigned so far to global warming. In addition, these changes induced by human activity may render inappropriate calculations of coastal-flood frequencies based on historical records since the latter relate to a period of time when the controls on flooding may have been very different.     

Re-Establishing a Sustainable Wetland at Former Lake Karla,Greece, Using Ramsar Restoration Guidelines

Lake Karla, Greece, was almost completely drained in 1962 both to protect surrounding farmlands from flooding and to increase agricultural area. Loss of wetland functions and values resulted in environmental, social, and economic problems. A number of restoration plans were proposed to address these problems. The plan approved by the government in the early 1990s proposed construction of a 4200-ha reservoir solely to improve water storage and flood attenuation functions. However, the Ramsar Scientific and Technical Review Panel states that the primary goal of any restoration project is to create resilient and sustainable ecosystems, as measured on a human timescale, in order to improve the ecological character and enhance the socioeconomic role that the wetland plays in the watershed. This study utilizes Ramsar guidelines for sustainable restoration of Lake Karla. Eight additional restoration measures are proposed based on functional analysis of the wetland to enhance additional wetland functions and support multiple values for humans and nature.     

An Analysis of the Effects of Land Use and Land Cover on Flood Losses along the Gulf of Mexico Coast from 1999 to 2009

Major coastal flooding events over the last decade have led decision makers in the United States to favor structural engineering solutions as a means to protect vulnerable coastal communities from the adverse impacts of future storms. While a resistance‐based approach to flood mitigation involving large‐scale construction works may be a central component of a regional flood risk reduction strategy, it is equally important to consider the role of land use and land cover (LULC) patterns in protecting communities from floods. To date, little observational research has been conducted to quantify the effects of various LULC configurations on the amount of property damage occurring across coastal regions over time. In response, we statistically examine the impacts of LULC on observed flood damage across 2,692 watersheds bordering the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, we analyze statistical linear regression models to isolate the influence of multiple LULC categories on over 372,000 insured flood losses claimed under the National Flood Insurance Program per year from 2001 to 2008. Results indicate that percent increase in palustrine wetlands is the equivalent to, on average, a $13,975 reduction in insured flood losses per year, per watershed. These and other results provide important insights to policy makers on how protecting specific types of LULC can help reduce adverse impacts to local communities.