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1.
In this paper we examine the use of data augmentation techniques for simplifying iterative simulation in the context of both
Bayesian and classical statistical inference for survival rate estimation. We examine two distinct model families common in
population ecology to illustrate our ideas, ring-recovery models and capture–recapture models, and we present the computational
advantage of this approach. We discuss also the fact that problems associated with identifiability in the classical framework
can be overcome using data augmentation, but highlight the dangers in doing so under both inferential paradigms.
相似文献
I. C. OlsenEmail: |
2.
Matthew R. Schofield Richard J. Barker Darryl I. MacKenzie 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(3):369-387
Hierarchical mark-recapture models offer three advantages over classical mark-recapture models: (i) they allow expression
of complicated models in terms of simple components; (ii) they provide a convenient way of modeling missing data and latent
variables in a way that allows expression of relationships involving latent variables in the model; (iii) they provide a convenient
way of introducing parsimony into models involving many nuisance parameters. Expressing models using the complete data likelihood
we show how many of the standard mark-recapture models for open populations can be readily fitted using the software WinBUGS.
We include examples that illustrate fitting the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model, multi-state and multi-event models, models including
auxiliary data, and models including density dependence.
相似文献
Darryl I. MacKenzieEmail: |
3.
The influence of multiple anchored fish aggregating devices (FADs) on the spatial behavior of yellowfin (Thunnus albacares) and bigeye tuna (T. obesus) was investigated by equipping all thirteen FADs surrounding the island of Oahu (HI, USA) with automated sonic receivers
(“listening stations”) and intra-peritoneally implanting individually coded acoustic transmitters in 45 yellowfin and 12 bigeye
tuna. Thus, the FAD network became a multi-element passive observatory of the residence and movement characteristics of tuna
within the array. Yellowfin tuna were detected within the FAD array for up to 150 days, while bigeye tuna were only observed
up to a maximum of 10 days after tagging. Only eight yellowfin tuna (out of 45) and one bigeye tuna (out of 12) visited FADs
other than their FAD of release. Those nine fish tended to visit nearest neighboring FADs and, in general, spent more time
at their FAD of release than at the others. Fish visiting the same FAD several times or visiting other FADs tended to stay
longer in the FAD network. A majority of tagged fish exhibited some synchronicity when departing the FADs but not all tagged
fish departed a FAD at the same time: small groups of tagged fish left together while others remained. We hypothesize that
tuna (at an individual or collective level) consider local conditions around any given FAD to be representative of the environment
on a larger scale (e.g., the entire island) and when those conditions become unfavorable the tuna move to a completely different
area. Thus, while the anchored FADs surrounding the island of Oahu might concentrate fish and make them more vulnerable to
fishing, at a meso-scale they might not entrain fish longer than if there were no (or very few) FADs in the area. At the existing
FAD density, the ‘island effect’ is more likely to be responsible for the general presence of fish around the island than
the FADs. We recommend further investigation of this hypothesis.
相似文献
Laurent Dagorn (Corresponding author)Email: |
Kim N. HollandEmail: |
David G. ItanoEmail: |
4.
Chang Xuan Mao 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2007,14(4):473-481
Consider the removal experiment used to estimate population sizes. Statistical methods towards testing the homogeneity of
capture probabilities of animals, including a graphical diagnostic and a formal test, are presented and illustrated by real
biological examples. Simulation is used to assess the test and compare it with the χ2 test.
相似文献
Chang Xuan MaoEmail: |
5.
Glen D. Johnson 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2008,15(3):293-311
Infectious disease surveillance has become an international top priority due to the perceived risk of bioterrorism. This is
driving the improvement of real-time geo-spatial surveillance systems for monitoring disease indicators, which is expected
to have many benefits beyond detecting a bioterror event. West Nile Virus surveillance in New York State (USA) is highlighted
as a working system that uses dead American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) to prospectively indicate viral activity prior to human onset. A cross-disciplinary review is then presented to argue that
this system, and infectious disease surveillance in general, can be improved by complementing spatial cluster detection of
an outcome variable with predictive “risk mapping” that incorporates spatiotemporal data on the environment, climate and human
population through the flexible class of generalized linear mixed models.
相似文献
Glen D. JohnsonEmail: |
6.
Frederic Paik Schoenberg Jamie Pompa Chien-Hsun Chang 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(2):251-269
This paper explores the use of, and problems that arise in, kernel smoothing and parametric estimation of the relationships
between wildfire incidence and various meteorological variables. Such relationships may be treated as components in separable
point process models for wildfire activity. The resulting models can be used for comparative purposes in order to assess the
predictive performance of the Burning Index.
相似文献
Frederic Paik SchoenbergEmail: |
7.
Lance A. Waller 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2008,15(3):259-263
The three papers included in this special issue represent a set of presentations in an invited session on disease ecology
at the 2005 Spring Meeting of the Eastern North American Region of the International Biometric Society. The papers each address
statistical estimation and inference for particular components of different disease processes and, taken together, illustrate
the breadth of statistical issues arising in the study of the ecology and public health impact of disease. As an introduction,
we provide a very brief overview of the area of “disease ecology”, a variety of synonyms addressing different aspects of disease
ecology, and present a schematic structure illustrating general components of the underlying disease process, data collection
issues, and different disciplinary perspectives ranging from microbiology to public health surveillance.
相似文献
Lance A. WallerEmail: |
8.
Stefan Krause Lutz Mattner Richard James Tristan Guttridge Mark J. Corcoran Samuel H. Gruber Jens Krause 《Behavioral ecology and sociobiology》2009,63(7):1089-1096
Analyses of animal social networks derived from group-based associations often rely on randomisation methods developed in
ecology (Manly, Ecology 76:1109–1115, 1995) and made available to the animal behaviour community through implementation of a pair-wise swapping algorithm by Bejder
et al. (Anim Behav 56:719–725, 1998). We report a correctable flaw in this method and point the reader to a wider literature on the subject of null models in
the ecology literature. We illustrate the importance of correcting the method using a toy network and use it to make a preliminary
analysis of a network of associations among eagle rays.
相似文献
Stefan KrauseEmail: |
9.
We propose a hierarchical modeling approach for explaining a collection of spatially referenced time series of extreme values.
We assume that the observations follow generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions whose locations and scales are jointly
spatially dependent where the dependence is captured using multivariate Markov random field models specified through coregionalization.
In addition, there is temporal dependence in the locations. There are various ways to provide appropriate specifications;
we consider four choices. The models can be fitted using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to enable inference for
parameters and to provide spatio–temporal predictions. We fit the models to a set of gridded interpolated precipitation data
collected over a 50-year period for the Cape Floristic Region in South Africa, summarizing results for what appears to be
the best choice of model.
相似文献
Alan E. GelfandEmail: |
10.
Hierarchical spatial point process analysis for a plant community with high biodiversity 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Janine B. Illian Jesper Møller Rasmus P. Waagepetersen 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(3):389-405
A complex multivariate spatial point pattern of a plant community with high biodiversity is modelled using a hierarchical
multivariate point process model. In the model, interactions between plants with different post-fire regeneration strategies
are of key interest. We consider initially a maximum likelihood approach to inference where problems arise due to unknown
interaction radii for the plants. We next demonstrate that a Bayesian approach provides a flexible framework for incorporating
prior information concerning the interaction radii. From an ecological perspective, we are able both to confirm existing knowledge
on species’ interactions and to generate new biological questions and hypotheses on species’ interactions.
相似文献
Rasmus P. WaagepetersenEmail: |
11.
Dimitris Karlis Vassilis G. S. Vasdekis Maria Banti 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(3):355-367
Heteroscedastic additive and multiplicative models are proposed to disaggregate household data on water consumption from Athens
and provide individual consumption estimates. The models adjust for heteroscedasticity assuming that variances relate to covariates.
Household characteristics that can influence consumption are also included into models in order to allow for a clearer measurement
of individual characteristics effects. Estimation is accomplished through a penalized least squares approach. The method is
applied to a sample of real data related to domestic water consumption in Athens. The results show a greater consumption of
water for males while the single-female households are these that use the lowest quantities of water. The consumption curves
by age and gender are constructed presenting differences between the two sexes.
相似文献
Vassilis G. S. VasdekisEmail: |
12.
B. Gail Ivanoff 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(2):153-171
The concept of the renewal property is extended to processes indexed by a multidimensional time parameter. The definition
given includes not only partial sum processes, but also Poisson processes and many other point processes whose jump points
are not totally ordered. Various properties of renewal processes are discussed. Renewal processes are proposed as a basis
for modelling the spread of a forest fire under a prevailing wind.
相似文献
B. Gail IvanoffEmail: |
13.
Den Boychuk W. John Braun Reg J. Kulperger Zinovi L. Krougly David A. Stanford 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(2):133-151
We consider a stochastic fire growth model, with the aim of predicting the behaviour of large forest fires. Such a model can
describe not only average growth, but also the variability of the growth. Implementing such a model in a computing environment
allows one to obtain probability contour plots, burn size distributions, and distributions of time to specified events. Such
a model also allows the incorporation of a stochastic spotting mechanism.
相似文献
Reg J. KulpergerEmail: |
14.
In this commentary, we discuss recent experiments on the reliability of bird song as a signal of aggressive intent during
territorial conflicts. We outline relevant theoretical views on honest signaling, highlighting the vulnerability handicap
hypothesis as a possible explanation for soft song’s reliability in predicting attack. We also sketch possible methods of
testing whether soft song agrees with key predictions of the vulnerability handicap hypothesis. Finally, we suggest possible
empirical refinements that may be useful in future studies of signals of intent, both in birds and in animals broadly. In
particular, we argue that future studies of intent should strive to incorporate the following elements into their experimental
design: (1) multi-modal signal components, (2) interaction dynamics, and (3) minimal time intervals. Simulated exchanges using
dynamically interactive models may provide a powerful means of incorporating all three of these design features simultaneously.
相似文献
Mark E. LaidreEmail: |
15.
Ralph L. Kodell 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(1):3-12
Although benchmark-dose methodology has existed for more than 20 years, benchmark doses (BMDs) still have not fully supplanted
the no-observed-adverse-effect level (NOAEL) and lowest-observed-adverse-effect level (LOAEL) as points of departure from
the experimental dose–response range for setting acceptable exposure levels of toxic substances. Among the issues involved
in replacing the NOAEL (LOAEL) with a BMD are (1) which added risk level(s) above background risk should be targeted as benchmark
responses (BMRs), (2) whether to apply the BMD methodology to both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic toxic effects, and (3)
how to model continuous health effects that aren’t observed in a natural risk-based context like dichotomous health effects.
This paper addresses these issues and recommends specific BMDs to replace the NOAEL and LOAEL.
相似文献
Ralph L. KodellEmail: |
16.
Fiat boundaries: some implications for interpretation,decision-support,and multi-temporal analysis 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Kim Lowell 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2008,15(4):369-383
Polygon-based thematic maps can be composed of boundaries that exist by definition—i.e., bona fide boundaries—or those that
exist relative to a specific interpretation of a spatial phenomenon—i.e., fiat boundaries. The construction of maps composed
of fiat boundaries is usually based on a subjective interpretive methodology that is affected by the data used to construct
the map and the minimum mapping unit employed. That fiat boundaries are not the same as bona fide boundaries affects their
use in computer-based spatial decision support tools. This is discussed both in terms of an analysis conducted at one specific
moment, and in respect to increasingly common multi-temporal analysis.
相似文献
Kim LowellEmail: |
17.
R. Webster West Daniela K. Nitcheva Walter W. Piegorsch 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(1):63-73
A primary objective in quantitative risk assessment is the characterization of risk which is defined to be the likelihood
of an adverse effect caused by an environmental toxin or chemcial agent. In modern risk-benchmark analysis, attention centers
on the “benchmark dose” at which a fixed benchmark level of risk is achieved, with a lower confidence limits on this dose
being of primary interest. In practice, a range of benchmark risks may be under study, so that the individual lower confidence
limits on benchmark dose must be corrected for simultaneity in order to maintain a specified overall level of confidence.
For the case of quantal data, simultaneous methods have been constructed that appeal to the large sample normality of parameter
estimates. The suitability of these methods for use with small sample sizes will be considered. A new bootstrap technique
is proposed as an alternative to the large sample methodology. This technique is evaluated via a simulation study and examples
from environmental toxicology.
相似文献
R. Webster WestEmail: |
18.
Vertical movement and habitat of opah (Lampris guttatus) in the central North Pacific recorded with pop-up archival tags 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Data from 11 pop-up archival transmitting tags attached to opah (Lampris guttatus, F. Lampridae) in the central North Pacific between November 2003 and March 2005 were used to describe their vertical movement
and habitat. In the subtropical gyre northwest of the Hawaiian Islands, opah generally inhabited a 50–400 m depth range and
8–22°C temperatures. They were frequently found in depths of 50–150 m at night and in greater depths (100–400 m) during the
day, but were constantly moving vertically within this broad range. At night, excursions below 200 m were not uncommon and
during the day they were very likely to spend some time at depths <175 m. Their vertical speeds were generally <25 cm s−1 but on one occasion an opah descended at a burst speed of 4 m s−1. Vertical habitat use by individual opah apparently varied with local oceanographic conditions, but over a 24-h period the
average temperature experienced was always in the narrow range of 14.7 to 16.5°C.
相似文献
Jeffrey J. PolovinaEmail: |
19.
Michelle Portman 《Journal of Coastal Conservation》2007,11(2):121-131
Policy tools that allow for the coordination of various authorities at different levels of government are important for coastal
protected areas. Frequently, multiple authorities manage these areas with varied and sometimes conflicting goals. This study
examines a regulatory model implemented on the Cape Cod National Seashore in the US that uses federally-approved zoning to
regulate private uses for protection of natural coastal resources. Local authorities implement the zoning which is designed
to support national resource protection goals making this a prime model of cross-level governance for conservation. I use
case study analysis to evaluate the program’s effectiveness by focusing on implementation and compliance in the context of
multi-jurisdictional (i.e., national to local) relations. The analysis and subsequent discussion highlight the difficulties
associated with implementation of intergovernmental mandates. Also, theoretical perspectives on compliance give insights about
the implementation challenges of this model. The model’s limitations have implications for policymakers considering similar
schemes implemented by split and hierarchical authorities with different, and possibly conflicting, coastal management goals.
相似文献
Michelle PortmanEmail: |
20.
Direct observations of the plankton vertical distribution performed from a manned submersible were made in the Charlie-Gibbs Fracture Zone (Atlantic Ocean). Plankton was counted using a standard 3-m2 frame in the depth layer from 170 to 4361 m and plotted for every 50 m. The most abundant components of the macroplankton were pelagic shrimps, chaetognaths and gelatinous animals, with peak of densities corresponding to the main pycnocline. Mucous houses of appendicularians were abundant at 150 m above the seabed—up to 0.07–0.09 m–3, compared to 0–0.006 m–3 in the upper layers. The new observations confirm that the near-bottom peak of appendicularian abundance is characteristic of at least the entire Central Atlantic, and it is not associated with certain biotopes on the bottom.Communicated by O. Kinne, Oldendorf/Luhe
相似文献
G. M. VinogradovEmail: |