灾后承接非政府组织援助系统工程的综合集成模式——以汶川8.0级地震为例

分析了承接非政府组织(NGO)援助复杂巨系统的框架结构、时空结构、运行结构及整体特性;提出了地震灾后承接援助系统工程的综合集成模式;分别就承接援建集成工程的运作模式和具体实施框架进行了讨论;就援建系统工程、迎建系统工程、应急组织系统工程和保障系统工程等具体实施工程做了细致的阐述。     

信息矩阵方法在面雨量预报集成中的应用

对多种数值天气预报降水产品进行集成应用,是克服单一预报模式缺点、提高预报准确率的有效途径。任何预报集成方法其本质是建立输入-输出关系,在数学上可以用函数关系表达。给出了用信息矩阵识别这种函数关系的方法,并以面雨量预报为例建立了集成方案。利用欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)、日本气象厅(JMA)两种数值模式降水预报产品分别计算输出了淮河流域面雨量预报产品。利用地面观测雨量资料,采用泰森多边形法计算流域面雨量实况。将2011年6-8月ECMWF、JMA面雨量预报产品和面雨量实况资料作为学习样本,构建了模糊关系矩阵。利用2012年6-8月ECMWF、JMA两种数值模式面雨量预报产品进行了集成预报试验。采用降水分级检验评分(TS)方法,对比分析了ECMWF、JMA以及集成预报(CFCST)的预报性能。结果表明:基于信息矩阵方法的面雨量集成预报性能总体上高于单个预报成员。     

军民协调灾害卫生救援体制的情报与模式研究

通过对国内外军民协调灾害卫生救援体制现状的对比分析，找出我国现行灾害卫生救援体制与国外体制之间的差距，分析了产生差距的原因．在此基础上，从加强军民协调、平战结合角度，提出我国灾害卫生救援体制四种框架模式，运用专家咨询法与层次分析法相结合的方法进行综合评估。明确了我国军民协调灾害卫生救援体制发展的战略目标和近中期目标，从而提出加强我国军民协调灾害卫生救援体制建设的对策与建议．     

有人/无人机协同森林灭火作战体系结构设计

有人/无人机协同灭火作为森林航空消防的全新模式是一项复杂的系统工程,以其为研究对象进行体系结构设计具有重要意义.该文以消防无人机、有人机行为模式和灭火能力分析为基础,综合考虑有人/无人机编队方法和控制流程,主要应用美国国防部架构框架的作战视点模型,重点分析各节点之间的交互关系及状态变化,创造性地构建了有人/无人机协同森...     

面向21世纪的上海城市综合减灾管理模式的探索

城市综合防灾减灾管理是城市管理的一个重要组成部分，上海市综合减灾体系目前尚不够完善，城市抗灾能力仍较薄弱，本文通过对国外大城市减灾管理模式的比较和研究，分析了目前沆减灾管理模式的现状和存在的问题，并提出了一个较为完善的上海市综合减灾管理模式框架和由目前灾害管理模式向理想模式过渡的措施和建议。     

以土地规划为基础的地质灾害防治综合规划体系框架的构建

通过土地利用规划手段来限制土地开发行为以实现地质灾害的规避与防治,是国际灾害防治的发展趋势。通过文献梳理,归纳总结了国内外地质灾害防治的理论、方法和实践经验,提出了以土地规划为基础的地质灾害防治综合规划体系框架:基础理论、技术框架、政策框架和地质灾害综合防治4个支持系统。基础理论支持系统,是从地质学理论、空间规划理论和公共管理理论提供基本的理论支持;技术框架支持系统,是为地质灾害防治提供基础数据和技术支撑;政策框架支持系统,是为通过土地利用规划措施防治地质灾害提供政策和法律保障。地质灾害防治综合规划,是在基础理论、政策框架和技术框架的支持下,以区域地质灾害防治规划和土地利用规划为中心,统筹城市规划、建成区更新规划、城市设施规划、物资储备、设施抗灾化、公众参与等措施安排建设用地。所提内卷是对地质灾害防治理论方法的探索,期望能供相关学科建设和工作实践参考。     

震灾保险新制式与国内外现行制式的比较研究

本文概括分析了国外震灾保险制式的形成思路、实施准则及其局限性；指出国内大多数研究模式受传统观念的制约，只能是对国外制式的效仿和沿袭；进而介绍了一种能够有效克服一般模式弊病的新型震灾保险制式，并对其实质与科学蕴涵作了简略阐述。     

旱灾风险评估的初步理论框架

旱灾风险评估是定量认识旱灾风险机理、科学防控旱灾风险的重要基础性研究,在旱灾风险管理理论与实践中具有重要意义。根据旱灾风险的形成机制,在旱灾风险评估基本概念分析的基础上,提出并系统地阐述了由旱灾致灾因子危险性、承灾体的灾损敏感性、暴露和抗旱能力组成的旱灾风险系统。在此系统结构基础上提出了旱灾风险评估方法论和旱灾风险评估理论模式,进而建立了由致灾因子危险性分析、承灾体脆弱性分析、旱灾损失风险分析、旱灾风险评价、旱灾风险决策分析方法组成的旱灾风险评估方法体系,以及由干旱频率与旱灾损失关系曲线图、干旱频率空间分布图、旱灾损失空间分布图、与旱灾风险有关的致灾因子危险性分布图等各种专题图、旱灾风险区划图组成的旱灾风险评估应用模式体系。由上述旱灾风险系统结构、旱灾风险评估方法论和理论模式、旱灾风险评估方法体系和应用模式体系组成旱灾风险评估的初步理论框架,该理论框架在其它自然灾害风险评估中具有参考应用价值。     

非政府组织(NGO)灾后援助联动的综合集成模式

在全球化趋势日益加强和公民社会的作用不断增大的大背景下,国际性的NG0救灾同样是全球化的重要表现.如何应对这一情况,是中国政府和中国民间组织必须面对的问题.尽管NGO在世界上很多灾难性事件中都发挥了重要的作用,但仍然存在许多问题.NGO要解决灾后援助过程中产生的问题,必须改变传统的管理方式与合作模式,加强NGO之间的沟...     

钢框架足尺结构火灾试验方案研究

钢框架足尺结构(即与实际工作中通常使用的结构尺寸相同的结构)火灾试验在国内尚属首次。着重介绍了试验施加荷载的确定、数据测量和钢框架的吊装计算,得出了进行钢框架主尺结构火灾试验的一些基本经验:采用钢结构构件实用抗火计算方法,对目标高温下框架中柱和边柱分别进行承载力计算,在和常温下各自的0.3倍的承载极限值进行综合比较后,确定钢框架柱轴向的施加荷载值;热电偶测温技术具有精度高和使用简便的优点,可用于火灾试验温度的测量;火灾试验中应变的测量无法正常进行,可转化成对关键部位位移的测量;足尺结构的吊装在对其简化的计算模型进行危险截面的强度验算以及对整个试件进行必要的挠度计算后方可进行。     

Of timelines and timeliness: lessons from Typhoon Haiyan in early disaster response

Typhoon Haiyan struck the Philippines on 8 November 2013 with maximum sustained winds of 235 kilometres per hour, adversely affecting at least 11 million people and displacing some 673,000 in the central regions of the country. The disaster clearly overwhelmed the Philippine government despite its seemingly well‐crafted disaster management plan. Using timelines of different organisations, this paper identifies gaps in the government's response, mainly due to its failure in coordinating and managing relief operations, which adversely affected its effectiveness and efficiency in the delivery of critical goods and services following the disaster. The paper also demonstrates how non‐governmental organisations (NGOs), the United Nations, foreign governments and other organisations provided assistance, mainly through aid niching, to cover the government's shortcomings. The paper recommends a paradigm shift in the government's disaster response by integrating collaborative arrangements between government agencies and NGOs, and giving local governments the lead role, with the national government as support, in disaster planning and response.     

The changing emphasis of disasters in Bangladesh NGOs

Bangladesh is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, affected by cyclones and floods, as well as chronic hazards such as arsenic poisoning. NGOs have played a major role in bringing concerns related to risk management on to the national agenda and promoting a shift of focus from mere relief response to disaster mitigation and preparedness. The government has, after earlier scepticism, now accepted NGOs as major partners in these tasks. Innovative approaches, such as the use of microfinance, have been applied; many of which are related to preserving the gains of development efforts as part of rehabilitation. NGOs have pressured for better coordination with government. Improved structures are now approved, but it is still too early to judge their impact. Despite progress, neither NGOs nor governmental agencies have clearly defined roles in the effort to link disaster management priorities. This will ensure that longer-term development efforts build on local capacities and reduce vulnerabilities.     

Why trust you? Security cooperation within humanitarian NGO networks

Although the literature is increasingly concerned with cooperation among humanitarian non-governmental organisations (NGOs), we still lack studies that explain cooperation under conditions of competition. Drawing on 22 semi-structured interviews, this article argues that trust is the driving force behind security-related cooperation within networks of humanitarian NGOs. Which type of trust comes into play and how trust is built depends on the structure of a network. In small, stable networks, trust is typically based on experience, whereas shared identity is at the heart of trust in large, unstable networks. In the latter case, cooperation among humanitarian NGOs is exclusive and comparable to a form of club governance, because NGOs are kept out based on their identity—that is, if they adopt a different operational interpretation of the humanitarian principles.     

Disaster mitigation and preparedness: the case of NGOs in the Philippines

The Philippines is very vulnerable to natural disasters because of its natural setting, as well as its socio-economic, political and environmental context--especially its widespread poverty. The Philippines has a well-established institutional and legal framework for disaster management, including built-in mechanisms for participation of the people and NGOs in decision-making and programme implementation. The nature and extent of collaboration with government in disaster preparedness and mitigation issues varies greatly according to their roots, either in past confrontation and political struggles or traditional charity activities. The growing NGO involvement in disaster management has been influenced by this history. Some agencies work well with local government and there is an increasing trend for collaborative work in disaster mitigation and preparedness. Some NGOs, however, retain critical positions. These organisations tend to engage more in advocacy and legal support for communities facing increased risk because of development projects and environmental destruction. Entry points into disaster mitigation and preparedness vary as well. Development-oriented agencies are drawn into these issues when the community members with whom they work face disaster. Relief organisations, too, realise the need for community mobilisation, and are thus drawn towards development roles.     

The Northridge Earthquake: Community-based Approaches to Unmet Recovery Needs

The 1994 Northridge, California earthquake has proven to be one of the most costly disasters in United States history. Federal and state assistance programmes received some 681,000 applications from victims for various forms of relief. In spite of the flow of US$11 billion in federal assistance into Los Angeles and Ventura counties, many victims have failed to obtain adequate relief. These unmet needs relate to the vulnerability of particular class and ethnic groups. In response to unmet needs, a number of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have become involved in the recovery process. This paper, based on evidence collected from hundreds of in-depth interviews with the people involved, examines the activities of several community-based organisations (CBOs) and other NGOs as they have attempted to assist vulnerable people with unmet post-disaster needs. We discuss two small ethnically diverse communities in Ventura County, on the periphery of the Los Angeles metropolitan region. The earthquake and resultant disaster declaration provided an opportunity for local government and NGOs to acquire federal resources not normally available for economic development. At the same time the earthquake created political openings in which longer-term issues of community development could be addressed by various local stakeholders. A key issue in recovery has been the availability of affordable housing for those on low incomes, particularly Latinos, the elderly and farm workers. We discuss the successes and limitations of CBOs and NGOs as mechanisms for dealing with vulnerable populations, unmet needs and recovery issues in the two communities.     

Challenges to mobilising resources for disaster recovery and reconstruction: perspectives of the Haitian diaspora

Diasporas and diaspora non‐governmental organisations (NGOs) are increasingly important as resource lifelines to their home countries, yet the resources that they mobilise, the types of challenges that they face, and their coping mechanisms are not well explored or understood in the context of disaster recovery. To fill this knowledge gap, this study employed an inductive qualitative methodological approach, using interviews to comprehend the role played by Haitian diaspora NGOs after the catastrophic earthquake in 2010. It found that resources take four common forms: event fundraisers; financial and material donations from supporters; remittances; and volunteer labour. Challenges include an overreliance on diaspora donors, competition among NGOs, and what is perceived as inequitable funding practices towards diaspora NGOs. The findings provide insights centred on better coordination among diaspora NGOs, as well as between diaspora NGOs and other local and international NGOs and local governments and international institutions, to ensure more efficient delivery of services to survivors.     

East Timor emerging from conflict: the role of local NGOs and international assistance

International assistance efforts have represented a conundrum for East Timorese seeking to assert their new independence and autonomy. While urgent needs have been met, local participation, involvement and capacity building have not been given adequate attention. This outcome is aptly demonstrated in the case of local non-government organisations (LNGOs). This paper specifically examines the role of LNGOs in the recovery of East Timor within the international assistance programme. It examines the challenges of rehabilitation efforts in East Timor with a particular focus on capacity building of East Timorese NGOs as part of a broader effort to strengthen civil society. The initial crisis response in East Timor highlighted tension between meeting immediate needs while simultaneously incorporating civil society actors such as NGOs and communities. It has been argued that local NGOs and the community at large were not sufficiently incorporated into the process. While it is acknowledged that many local NGOs had limited capacity to respond, a greater emphasis on collaboration, inclusion and capacity building was desirable, with a view to supporting medium and longer term objectives that promote a vibrant civil society, sustainability and self-management.     

Insiders and outsiders: local government and NGO engagement in disaster response in Guimaras,Philippines

This paper examines local government and non‐governmental organisation (NGO) engagement in disaster response in the wake of the M/T Solar 1 oil spill in Guimaras, Western Visayas, Philippines, on 11 August 2006. It assesses the response activities of these two entities as well as the institutional factors that affected their interaction on the ground. Local government and NGO engagement was shaped by multi‐layered, overlapping, and oftentimes contending government‐designed response frameworks. Within these frameworks, government actors played the role of primary implementer and provider of relief, allowing them to determine who could be involved and the extent of their involvement. The absence of formal roles for NGOs in these frameworks not only undermines their ability to work in a setting where such institutional set‐ups are operational but also it reaffirms their ‘outsider’ status. This study of the Guimaras oil spill illustrates the complexity and the institutional difficulties inherent in disaster response and coordination in the Philippines.     

Humanitarian (in)security: risk management in complex settings

Attacks against humanitarian aid workers have received increasing attention in the media, particularly high-profile incidents such as those against the hospitals of Médecins Sans Frontières in Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen. Concurrently, scholarly research has given rise to a number of articles, white papers, and books on humanitarian insecurity. Most of this work centres on external threats, neglecting the internal mechanisms that humanitarian organisations use to mitigate security situations. This paper builds on the existing literature by focusing on the decision-making processes of humanitarian organisations, drawing on data collected from 16 security managers or advisers. The findings reveal that several factors contribute to contextual uncertainty and complexity, including recipient perceptions, local government actions, the behaviour of other non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in the area, logistical issues, risk variance within a single location, and organisational mandate. Furthermore, the results indicate that NGOs utilise a combination of decision-making processes to determine how to manage security in high-risk environments.