Physically Based,Hydrologic Model Results Based on Three Precipitation Products1

Abstract: The main objective of the study is to examine the accuracy of and differences among simulated streamflows driven by rainfall estimates from a network of 22 rain gauges spread over a 2,170 km² watershed, NEXRAD Stage III radar data, and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 satellite data. The Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA), a physically based, distributed parameter, grid‐structured, hydrologic model, was used to simulate the June‐2002 flooding event in the Upper Guadalupe River watershed in south central Texas. There were significant differences between the rainfall fields estimated by the three types of measurement technologies. These differences resulted in even larger differences in the simulated hydrologic response of the watershed. In general, simulations driven by radar rainfall yielded better results than those driven by satellite or rain‐gauge estimates. This study also presents an overview of effects of land cover changes on runoff and stream discharge. The results demonstrate that, for major rainfall events similar to the 2002 event, the effect of urbanization on the watershed in the past two decades would not have made any significant effect on the hydrologic response. The effect of urbanization on the hydrologic response increases as the size of the rainfall event decreases.     

EVALUATING THE ACCURACY OF RAINFALL CATCH BY THREE DIFFERENT GAGES1

ABSTRACT: A U.S. standard gage, a weighing-type recording gage, a standard gage fitted with an Alter windshield, and a pit gage were installed to evaluate the accuracy and wind effects on rainfall catch. The study was conducted at the Stephen F. Austin Experimental Forest, about 20 km SW of Nacogdoches, Texas. A recording anemometer was also installed at a height corresponding to the standard gage orifice. Based on data from 67 storms collected over a one-year period (July 1995-August 1996), all three conventional gages consistently caught less rainfall than the reference pit gage with an average percent deficiency greater than 10 percent. However, the recording gage caught 2.7 percent less and the shielded gage caught 1 percent more than the standard gage—differences less than those reported elsewhere. The deficiencies were highly correlated with storm intensity, duration, or total rainfall. When the correction for wind effect on angle of raindrop inclination is included, the percent catch deficiency of the standard gage was reduced from 11 percent to 6 percent. The remaining errors may be attributed to wind effects (streamline vs. turbulent flow), nonrandom errors, or other unknown sources.     

Nonparametric Monte Carlo Simulation for Flood Frequency Curve Derivation: An Application to a Korean Watershed1

Abstract: A mix of causative mechanisms may be responsible for flood at a site. Floods may be caused because of extreme rainfall or rain on other rainfall events. The statistical attributes of these events differ according to the watershed characteristics and the causes. Traditional methods of flood frequency analysis are only adequate for specific situations. Also, to address the uncertainty of flood frequency estimates for hydraulic structures, a series of probabilistic analyses of rainfall‐runoff and flow routing models, and their associated inputs, are used. This is a complex problem in that the probability distributions of multiple independent and derived random variables need to be estimated to evaluate the probability of floods. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to develop a flood frequency curve derivation method driven by multiple random variables and to develop a tool that can consider the uncertainties of design floods. This study focuses on developing a flood frequency curve based on nonparametric statistical methods for the estimation of probabilities of rare floods that are more appropriate in Korea. To derive the frequency curve, rainfall generation using the nonparametric kernel density estimation approach is proposed. Many flood events are simulated by nonparametric Monte Carlo simulations coupled with the center Latin hypercube sampling method to estimate the associated uncertainty. This study applies the methods described to a Korean watershed. The results provide higher physical appropriateness and reasonable estimates of design flood.     

QUANTIFYING MODEL OUTPUT UNCERTAINTY DUE TO SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL1

Traditionally in the application of hydrologic/water quality (H/WQ) models, rainfall is assumed to be spatially homogeneous and is considered not to contribute to output uncertainty. The objective of this study was to assess the uncertainty induced in model outputs solely due to rainfall spatial variability. The study was conducted using the AGNPS model and the rainfall pattern captured by a network of 17 rain gauges. For each rainfall event, the model was run using the rainfall captured by each rain gauge, one at a time, under the assumption of rainfall spatial homogeneity. A large uncertainty in the modeled outputs resulted from the rainfall spatial variability. The uncertainty in the modeled outputs exceeded the input rainfall uncertainty. Results of this study indicate that spatial variability of rainfall should be captured and used in H/WQ models in order to accurately assess the release and transport of pollutants. A large uncertainty in the model outputs can be expected if this rainfall property is not taken into account.     

一个研究街道峡谷流场及浓度场特征的三维数值模式

目前，研究街道峡谷内流场及机动车排放污染物的扩散行为特征所采用的主要方法为：采用野外测试法和物理模拟法，而采用三维数值模拟方法研究此问题的工作很少。本文创建了一个研究微尺度街道峡谷内流场及机动车排放污染物扩散特征的三维数值模式，即首次采用伪不定常方法，利用K——E闭合方案，建立了一个模拟城市街道峡谷内流场及污染物扩散特征与街道峡谷风场、街道几何结构及两侧建筑物高度对称性之间的复杂关系的三维数值模式。经过与实际监测资料及风洞实验对比，结果表明此三维模式具有较好的模拟精度，能够很好模拟峡谷内的风场及街谷几何结构对街道峡谷内流场及浓度场特征的影响，有很强的实用性。     

HEAVY RAINSTORMS IN CHICAGO: INCREASING FREQUENCY,ALTERED IMPACTS,AND FUTURE IMPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Operations of a dense raingage network in the Chicago area since 1989 provided data to assess the temporal and spatial distributions of heavy rainstorms. The 12‐year average was 4.4 storms per year, 40 percent more than in the 1948 to 1980 period, reflecting an ongoing Midwestern increase in heavy rains. The total rainfall from the 53 heavy rainstorms maximized over the city, reflecting previous observations that the influence of the city and Lake Michigan on the atmosphere causes an increase in heavy rains. Impacts from the record high number of eight storms in 2001 revealed that efforts to control flooding including the Deep Tunnel system, had reduced street and basement flooding in the moderate intensity storms, but the two most intense storms, each with 100‐year rainfall values, led to excessive flooding and a need to release flood waters into Lake Michigan. Results suggest continuing increases in the number of heavy rainstorms in future years, which has major implications for water managers in Chicago and elsewhere.     

Analysing the influence of different street vegetation on traffic-induced particle dispersion using microscale simulations

Urban vegetation can be viewed as compensation to the environmental drawbacks of urbanisation. However, its ecosystem function is not well-known and, for urban planning, vegetation is mainly considered as an element of urban design. This article argues that planning practice needs to re-examine the impact of vegetation cover in the urban fabric given our evaluation of vegetation's effects on air quality, including the dispersion of traffic-induced particles at street level. Using the three-dimensional microclimate model ENVI-met?, we evaluate these effects regarding the height-to-width ratio of streets flanked by buildings and the vertical and horizontal density of street vegetation. Our results reveal vegetation's effect on particle dispersion through its influence on street ventilation. In general, vegetation was found to reduce wind speed, causing inhibition of canyon ventilation and, consequently, an increase in particle concentrations. Vegetation was also found to reduce wind speed at crown-height and to disrupt the flow field in close vicinity to the canopy. With increasing height-to-width ratio of street canyons, wind speed reduction increases and the disturbance of the flow impacts across a canyon's entire width. We also found that the effect is more pronounced in configurations with poor ventilation, such as the low wind speed, perpendicular inflow direction, and in deep canyons cases.     

POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON MOUNTAIN WATERSHEDS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST1

ABSTRACT: Global climate change due to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has serious potential impacts on water resources in the Pacific Northwest. Climate scenarios produced by general circulation models (GCMs) do not provide enough spatial specificity for studying water resources in mountain watersheds. This study uses dynamical downscaling with a regional climate model (RCM) driven by a GCM to simulate climate change scenarios. The RCM uses a subgrid parameterization of orographic precipitation and land surface cover to simulate surface climate at the spatial scale suitable for the representation of topographic effects over mountainous regions. Numerical experiments have been performed to simulate the present-day climatology and the climate conditions corresponding to a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The RCM results indicate an average warming of about 2.5°C, and precipitation generally increases over the Pacific Northwest and decreases over California. These simulations were used to drive a distributed hydrology model of two snow dominated watersheds, the American River and Middle Fork Flathead, in the Pacific Northwest to obtain more detailed estimates of the sensitivity of water resources to climate change. Results show that as more precipitation falls as rain rather than snow in the warmer climate, there is a 60 percent reduction in snowpack and a significant shift in the seasonal pattern of streamflow in the American River. Much less drastic changes are found in the Middle Fork Flathead where snowpack is only reduced by 18 percent and the seasonal pattern of streamflow remains intact. This study shows that the impacts of climate change on water resources are highly region specific. Furthermore, under the specific climate change scenario, the impacts are largely driven by the warming trend rather than the precipitation trend, which is small.     

SIMULATION OF TEMPORAL CHANGES IN RAINFALL-RUNOFF CHARACTERISTICS,COON CREEK BASIN,WISCONSIN1

ABSTRACT: Streamflow for 67 years was simulated for Coon Creek at Coon Valley, Wisconsin, for three conditions in the drainage basin: (1) conditions in the 1930s; (2) conditions in the 1970s, excluding flood-detention reservoirs; and (3) conditions in the 1970s, including flood-detention reservoirs. These simulations showed that the changes in agricultural practices over 40 years (1940–80) reduced the 100-year flood by 53 percent (from 38,900 to 18,300 cubic feet per second). The flood-detention reservoirs reduced the 100-year flood by an additional 17 percent (to 15,100 cubic feet per second). The simulation was accomplished by calibrating a precipitation-runoff model to observed rainfall and runoff during two separate periods (1934–40 and 1978–81). Comparisons of model simulations showed that differences between the model calibrations for the two periods were statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level.     

UPLAND SOIL EROSION SIMULATION FOR AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: A soil erosion simulation model that considered the physical conditions of agricultural watersheds and that interfaced with the modified USDAHL-74 watershed hydrology model was developed. The erosion model simulates the detachment and transport of soil particles caused by raindrop impact and overland flow from rill and interrill areas. The model considers temporal and spatial variation of plant residue, crop canopy cover, snow cover, and the moisture content of surface soil as modifying factors of the erosive forces of raindrop impact and overland flow. The hydrology model simulates overland flow and some of the physical parameters that are used in the erosion model. The simulation is executed in the time interval determined by the rainfall rate or snowmelt rate. The erosion model compares the transport capacity of the overland flow and the sediment loaded in the overland flow to determine the fate account for the free soil particles that have already been detached and are readily available to be transported by the overland flow. The model was tested with data from two small agricultural watersheds in the Palouse region of the Pacific Northwest dryland. The model was calibrated by trial-and-error to determine the coefficients of the model.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CHANGED CLIMATES ON HEAVY RAINFALL FREQUENCIES IN TIlE MIDWEST1

ABSTRACT: An important question posed by potential future shifts in climate relates to possible shifts in heavy rainfall events (intensity and/or frequency) used to design hydraulic structures. Heavy rain events were defined as those producing amounts having average recurrence intervals of two years or longer for a specific storm period at a given location. Estimates of such heavy rainfall shifts in the humid continental climate of the midwest were derived by using spatial and temporal analogs. Comparisons in areas of relatively warm, wet conditions were made with those having measurably cooler, drier average conditions. The spatial-temporal analogs provided comparative differences in precipitation and temperature similar to the magnitude of changes obtained from GCM estimates. Spatial analogs/analyses indicated 10 to 15 percent increases in the frequency distribution of rain events having recurrence intervals of 5 to 50 years. Two periods of notably drier and warmer conditions during the past 90 years revealed 5 to 15 percent decreases in the number of 2- to 10-year heavy rain events. The suppression percentages showed a strong tendency to increase with increasing recurrence interval from 2 to 10 years.     

PARAMETER IDENTIFICATION IN A TWO‐MULTIPLIER SEDIMENT YIELD MODEL1

ABSTRACT: A process based, distributed runoff erosion model (KINEROS2) was used to examine problems of parameter identification of sediment entrainment equations for small watersheds. Two multipliers were used to reflect the distributed nature of the sediment entrainment parameters: one multiplier for a raindrop induced entrainment parameter, and one multiplier for a flow induced entrainment parameter. The study was conducted in three parts. First, parameter identification was studied for simulated error free data sets where the parameter values were known. Second, the number of data points in the simulated sedigraphs was reduced to reflect the effect of temporal sampling frequency on parameter identification. Finally, event data from a small range‐land watershed were used to examine parameter identifiability when the parameter values are unknown. Results demonstrated that whereas unique multiplier values can be obtained for simulated error free data, unique parameter values could not be obtained for some event data. Unique multiplier values for raindrop induced entrainment and flow induced entrainment were found for events with greater than a two‐year return period (～25 mm) that also had at least 10 mm of rain in ten minutes. It was also found that the three‐minute sampling frequency used for the sediment sampler might be inadequate to identify parameters in some cases.     

Carbon and nitrogen losses by surface runoff following changes in vegetation

Rainfall simulation experiments were conducted on annual grassland and coastal sage scrub hillslopes to determine the quantities of C and N removed by surface runoff in sediment and solution. Undisturbed coastal sage scrub soils have very high infiltration capacities (> 140 mm h(-1)), preventing the generation of surface runoff. Trampling disturbance to the sage scrub plots dramatically reduced infiltration capacities, increasing the potential for surface runoff and associated nutrient loss. Infiltration capacities in the grassland plots (30-50 mm h(-1)) were lower than in the sage scrub plots. Loss rates of dissolved C and N in surface runoff from grasslands were 0.5 and 0.025 mg m(-2) s(-1) respectively, with organic N accounting for more than 50% of the dissolved N. Total dissolved losses with simulated rainfall were higher than losses in simulations with just surface runoff, demonstrating the importance of raindrop impact in transferring solutes into the flow. Experimental data were incorporated into a numerical model of runoff and sediment transport to estimate hillslope-scale sediment-bound nutrient losses from grasslands. According to the model results, sediment-bound nutrient losses are sensitive to the density of vegetation cover and rainfall intensity. The model estimates annual losses in surface runoff of 0.2 and 0.02 g m(-2) for sediment-hound C and N, respectively. The results of this study suggest that conversion of coastal sage scrub to annual grasslands increases hillslope nutrient losses and may affect stream water quality in the region.     

WATERSHED CONFIGURATION AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM PARAMETERIZATION FOR SPUR MODEL HYDROLOGIC SIMULATIONS1

ABSTRACT: A grid cell geographic information system (GIS) is used to parameterize SPUR, a quasi-physically based surface runoff model in which a watershed is configured as a set of stream segments and contributing areas. GIS analysis techniques produce various watershed configurations by progressive simplification of a stream network delineated from digital elevation models (DEM). We used three watershed configurations: ≥ 2nd, ≥ 4th, and ≥ 13th Shreve order networks, where the watershed contains 28, 15, and 1 channel segments with 66, 37, and 3 contributing areas, respectively. Watershed configuration controls simulated daily and monthly sums of runoff volumes. For the climatic and topographic setting in southeastern Arizona the ≥ 4th order configuration of the stream network and contributing areas produces results that are typically as good as the ≥ 2nd order network. However both are consistently better than the ≥ 13th order configuration. Due to the degree of parameterization in SPUR, model simulations cannot be significantly improved by increasing watershed configuration beyond the ≥ 4th order network. However, a range of Soil Conservation Service curve numbers derived from rainfall/runoff data can affect model simulations. Higher curve numbers yield better results for the ≥ 2nd order network while lower curve numbers yield better results for the ≥ 4th order network.     

RUNOFF AND SEDIMENT PRODUCTION FROM BURNED FOREST SITES IN THE GEORGIA PIEDMONT1

ABSTRACT: Runoff and sediment production was measured under simulated and natural rain from 1×5 m plots established on a cutover and burned mixed pine-hardwood site in the Georgia Piedmont. Trees on the study site were cut and removed without mechanical disturbance. Slash was removed, kiln dried and replaced on the slope, and burned prior to plot installation. Three slopes, two rainfall intensities, three rainfall simulations representing three soil moisture conditions, and two replicate plots were used. The experiment was repeated four times during the period July 1989-July 1990 to investigate the effects of temporal changes in surface conditions and particularly root mat and residual forest floor decemposition. Runoff and sediment production from natural rainfall events was also measured from these plots during the period February-October 1990. Results of all measurements indicate that runoff and sediment production were generally low because of the protection afforded by the residual forest floor following burning. However, temporary hydrophobic conditions caused by a dry organic layer produced relatively high runoff rates and high sediment for the first few minutes of runoff for some of the simulated rainfall applications.     

RUNOFF AND EROSION RESPONSE OF SIMULATED WASTE BURIAL COVERS IN A SEMI-ARID ENVIRONMENT1

ABSTRACT: Control of runoff (reducing infiltration) and erosion at shallow land burials is necessary in order to assure environmentally safe disposal of low-level radioactive-waste and other waste products. This study evaluated the runoff and erosion response of two perennial grass species on simulated waste burial covers at Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). Rainfall simulations were applied to three plots covered by crested wheatgrass [Agropyron desertorum(Fischer ex Link) Shultes], three plots covered by streambank wheatgrass [Elymus lanceolatus(Scribner and Smith) Gould spp. lanceolaus], and one bare plot. Average total runoff for rainfall simulations in 1987, 1989, and 1990 was 42 percent greater on streambank wheatgrass plots than on crested wheatgrass plots. Average total soil loss for rainfall simulations in 1987 and 1990 was 105 percent greater on streambank wheatgrass plots than on crested wheatgrass plots. Total runoff and soil loss from natural rainfall and snowmelt events during 1987 were 25 and 105 percent greater, respectively, on streambank wheatgrass plots than on crested wheatgrass plots. Thus, crested wheatgrass appears to be better suited in revegetation of waste burial covers at INEEL than streambank wheatgrass due to its much lower erosion rate and only slightly higher infiltration rate (lower runoff rate).     

Utility of Gridded Rainfall for IHACRES Daily River Flow Predictions in Southern California Watersheds1

Abstract: Studies to regionalize conceptual hydrologic models generally require rainfall and river flow data from multiple watersheds. Besides the considerable time (cost) to assemble and process rainfall data for many watersheds, investigators often need to choose from a number of candidate gauges, subjectively weighing the relative importance of proximity and elevation to select a representative rainfall dataset. The Unified Raingauge Dataset (URD) is a gridded daily rainfall dataset that covers the conterminous United States at 0.25 × 0.25 degrees spatial resolution and is available from 1948 to present. The objective of this study was to determine whether uncertainty in daily river flow predictions using the conceptual hydrologic model IHACRES in small to moderate size watersheds (50‐400 km²) in southern California would increase if URD gridded rainfall data were used in place of single rain gauge data to calibrate the model. Rain gauge data were obtained from the gauge nearest the watershed centroid and the gauge closest in elevation to the watershed mean elevation. Results from 20 randomly selected watersheds indicated that IHACRES calibration performance was similar using rainfall data from the URD grids and rain gauge data. There was some evidence of greater uncertainties associated with the URD calibrations in areas where topography may affect rainfall amounts. In contrast to the URD data, monthly gridded data produced by the Parameter‐Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) includes adjustments for elevation and produces gridded values at a finer spatial resolution (4 km²). A limited test on two watersheds demonstrated that scaling the URD daily rainfall estimates to match the PRISM monthly values may improve rainfall estimates and model simulation performance.     

Thermal Characteristics of Stormwater Runoff from Asphalt and Sod Surfaces1

Abstract: Urban impervious surfaces absorb and store thermal energy, particularly during warm summer months. During a rainfall/runoff event, thermal energy is transferred from the impervious surface to the runoff, causing it to become warmer. As this higher temperature runoff enters receiving waters, it can be harmful to coldwater habitat. In an urban watershed, impervious asphalt surfaces (roads, parking lots, and driveways) and pervious residential lawns comprise a significant portion of the watershed area. A paired asphalt‐turfgrass sod plot was constructed to compare the thermal runoff characteristics between asphalt and turfgrass sod surfaces, to identify meteorological variables that influence these thermal characteristics, and to evaluate evaporative heat loss for runoff from asphalt surfaces. Rainfall simulations were conducted during the summers of 2004 and 2005 under a range of climatic conditions. Asphalt surface temperatures immediately prior to rainfall simulations averaged 43.6°C and decreased an average of 12.3°C over 60 min as rain cooled the surface. In contrast, presimulation sod surface temperatures averaged only 23.3°C and increased an average of 1.3°C throughout the rainfall events. Heat transferred from the asphalt to the runoff resulted in initial asphalt runoff temperatures averaging 35.0°C that decreased by an average of 4.1°C at the end of the event. Sod runoff temperatures averaged only 25.5°C and remained fairly constant throughout the simulations. Multivariable regression equations were developed to predict (1) average asphalt surface temperature (R² = 0.90) and average asphalt runoff temperature (R² = 0.92) as a function of solar radiation, rain temperature, and wind speed, and (2) average sod surface temperature (R² = 0.85) and average sod runoff temperature (R² = 0.94) as a function of solar radiation, rain temperature, rain intensity, and wind speed. Based on a heat balance analysis, existing evaporation equations developed from studies on lakes were not adequate to predict evaporation from runoff on a heated impervious surface. The combined heat from the asphalt and sod plots was an average of 38% less than the total heat had the total area consisted solely of asphalt.     

Temporal and spatial variation of episodic wind erosion in unburned and burned semiarid shrubland

Redistribution of soil, nutrients, and contaminants is often driven by wind erosion in semiarid shrublands. Wind erosion depends on wind velocity (particularly during episodic, high-velocity winds) and on vegetation, which is generally sparse and spatially heterogeneous in semiarid ecosystems. Further, the vegetation cover can be rapidly and greatly altered due to disturbances, particularly fire. Few studies, however, have evaluated key temporal and spatial components of wind erosion with respect to (i) erosion rates on the scale of weeks as a function of episodic high-velocity winds, (ii) rates at unburned and burned sites, and (iii) within-site spatial heterogeneity in erosion. Measuring wind erosion in unburned and recently burned Chihuahuan desert shrubland, we found (i) weekly wind erosion was related more to daily peak wind velocities than to daily average velocities as consistent with our findings of a threshold wind velocity at approximately 7 m s(-1); (ii) greater erodibility in burned vs. unburned shrubland as indicated by erosion thresholds, aerodynamic roughness, and nearground soil movement; and (iii) burned shrubland lost soil from intercanopy and especially canopy patches in contrast to unburned shrubland, where soil accumulated in canopy patches. Our results are among the first to quantify post-fire wind erosion and highlight the importance of accounting for finer temporal and spatial variation in shrubland wind erosion. This finer-scale variation relates to semiarid land degradation, and is particularly relevant for predictions of contaminant resuspension and redistribution, both of which historically ignore finer-scale temporal and spatial variation in wind erosion.     

SIMULATION OF URBAN NON-POINT SOURCE POLLUTION1

ABSTRACT: Public Law 92–00 has mandated the need for evaluating the impact of nonpoint source pollution on receiving water quality, primarily through Section 208 Areawide Planning. The Management of Urban Non-Point Pollution (MUNP) model was developed to estimate the accumulation of eight non-point pollutants on urban streets, their removal by both rainfall and street sweeping operations. The model can simulate the following pollutants: total solids or sediment-like material, volatile solids, five-day biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, Kjeldahl nitrogen, nitrates, phosphates, and total heavy metals. The simulated results can be used for investigation of non-point pollution management alternatives. The model is capable of reflecting variation in such diverse factors as physical and chemical characteristics of accumulated pollutants, land use characteristics, rainfall characteristics, street sweeper characteristics, roadway characteristics, and traffic conditions. By using mean estimates of many input variables for large segments of a city, the MUNP model could be used to quickly assess the magnitude of pollutants annually entering receiving waterways due to nonpoint source pollution alone. If the results indicate that non-point pollution loadings are sizeable and require futher analysis, the MUNP model could be used to define the specific nonpoint source pollution areas within a city. Hypothetical locations and actual rainfall data for Washigton D.C. were used to demonstrate some capabilities of the MUNP model.