Extension of EU Emissions Trading Scheme to Other Sectors and Gases: Consequences for Uncertainty of Total Tradable Amount

Emissions trading in the European Union (EU), covering the least uncertain emission sources of greenhouse gas emission inventories (CO₂ from combustion and selected industrial processes in large installations), began in 2005. During the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008–2012), the emissions trading between Parties to the Protocol will cover all greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF₆) and sectors (energy, industry, agriculture, waste, and selected land-use activities) included in the Protocol. In this paper, we estimate the uncertainties in different emissions trading schemes based on uncertainties in corresponding inventories. According to the results, uncertainty in emissions from the EU15 and the EU25 included in the first phase of the EU emissions trading scheme (2005–2007) is ±3% (at 95% confidence interval relative to the mean value). If the trading were extended to CH₄ and N₂O, in addition to CO₂, but no new emissions sectors were included, the tradable amount of emissions would increase by only 2% and the uncertainty in the emissions would range from −4 to +8%. Finally, uncertainty in emissions included in emissions trading under the Kyoto Protocol was estimated to vary from −6 to +21%. Inclusion of removals from forest-related activities under the Kyoto Protocol did not notably affect uncertainty, as the volume of these removals is estimated to be small.     

Processing National CO2 Inventory Emissions Data and their Total Uncertainty Estimates

The uncertainty of reported greenhouse gases emission inventories obtained by the aggregation of partial emissions from all sources and estimated to date for several countries is very high in comparison with the countries’ emissions limitation and reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Independent calculation of the estimates could confirm or question the undertainty estimates values obtained thus far. One of the aims of this paper is to propose statistical signal processing methods to enable calculation of the inventory variances. The annual reported emissions are used and temporal smoothness of the emissions curve is assumed. The methods considered are: a spline-function-smoothing procedure; a time-varying parameter model; and the geometric Brownian motion model. These are validated on historical observations of the CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The estimates of variances obtained are in a similar range to those obtained from national inventories using TIER1 or TIER2. Additionally, some regularities in the observed curves were noticed.     

Comparison of first-order-decay modeled and actual field measured municipal solid waste landfill methane data

The first-order decay (FOD) model is widely used to estimate landfill gas generation for emissions inventories, life cycle assessments, and regulation. The FOD model has inherent uncertainty due to underlying uncertainty in model parameters and a lack of opportunities to validate it with complete field-scale landfill data sets. The objectives of this paper were to estimate methane generation, fugitive methane emissions, and aggregated collection efficiency for landfills through a mass balance approach using the FOD model for gas generation coupled with literature values for cover-specific collection efficiency and methane oxidation. This study is unique and valuable because actual field data were used in comparison with modeled data. The magnitude and variation of emissions were estimated for three landfills using site-specific model parameters and gas collection data, and compared to vertical radial plume mapping emissions measurements. For the three landfills, the modeling approach slightly under-predicted measured emissions and over-estimated aggregated collection efficiency, but the two approaches yielded statistically equivalent uncertainties expressed as coefficients of variation. Sources of uncertainty include challenges in large-scale field measurement of emissions and spatial and temporal fluctuations in methane flow balance components (generated, collected, oxidized, and emitted methane). Additional publication of sets of field-scale measurement data and methane flow balance components will reduce the uncertainty in future estimates of fugitive emissions.     

Accounting for Climate Change: Introduction

The assessment of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on both political and scientific agendas internationally. As increasing international concern and cooperation aim at policy-oriented solutions to the climate change problem, several issues have begun to arise regarding verification and compliance under both proposed and legislated schemes meant to reduce the human-induced global climate impact. The approaches to addressing uncertainty introduced in this article attempt to improve national inventories or to provide a basis for the standardization of inventory estimates to enable comparison of emissions and emission changes across countries. Authors of the accompanying articles use detailed uncertainty analyses to enforce the current structure of the emission trading system and attempt to internalize high levels of uncertainty by tailoring the emissions trading market rules. Assessment of uncertainty can help improve inventories and manage risk. Through recognizing the importance of, identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in the process of Accounting for Climate Change.     

Energy conservation and CO2 emission reductions due to recycling in Brazil

The present paper aims to make the energy saving potential provided by waste recycling in Brazil evident by pointing out more specifically the benefits regarding climate change mitigation. In this case, based on the energy saved due to the recycling process of an exogenous amount of waste, we have built two scenarios in order to show the potential for indirectly avoiding CO2 emissions in the country as a result of the recycling process. According to the scenario, 1 Mt and 3.5 Mt of CO2, respectively, would be avoided per year due to solid waste recycling. The international context for greenhouse gas emissions reduction, such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol has been taken into account.     

Economic growth and selection of municipal waste treatment options in Bangkok

A reasonable selection of waste treatment options is indispensable to address challenges in waste management. Introduction of incineration plants for municipal waste in Bangkok had been considered in the past, but each time it was dismissed. In 2013, however, the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) decided to introduce an incinerator facility with electricity generation. This study examined how changes in socio-economic factors resulting from economic growth affected the BMA’s decision. First, we conducted interviews of key relevant stakeholders (policymakers and other experts) to determine what kinds of changes in socio-economic factors affected their decision. Then, for interpretation and confirmation of the results from interview, we quantitatively estimated changes in environmental factors (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions), financial factors (e.g., construction and operating costs), and social factors (e.g., employment) in 1990, 2000, and 2012. Based on the result of interview and quantitative analysis, we illustrated the complicated structure of the mechanism of how economic growth affected the selection of waste treatment options in Bangkok, particularly those that led to the selection of the incineration. In addition to local conditions, global economic also affected the waste treatment policy in Bangkok even though waste management is usually thought of as a local issue.     

The Applicability of National Critical Loads Data in Assessing Designated Sites

Critical loads have been successfully used within Europe in the development of effects-based policies for pollution abatement, including the Second Sulphur Protocol and the Protocol to abate acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone (CLRTAP, 1979). This success has encouraged the UK Environment Agency and Conservation Agencies to use the national critical load maps as a screening tool in assessing the threats from acidification and eutrophication to designated (Natura 2000) sites. The UK maps of critical loads are based on national-scale data sets appropriate for national-scale assessments, and were never intended for use at the site-specific level. Site-based assessments are often targeted at Special Areas of Conservation, a sub-set of the UK Natura 2000 sites. The spatial data available includes the boundaries of the sites but not the location of the designated features. Ancillary data is variable from one site to another; habitat types may be described in detail with cross-reference to classes of the National Vegetation Classification (NVC: Rodwell, 1991 et seq), but information available on soils and geology is generalised and has not been related to the habitats or species being protected. Hence it can be difficult to relate the individual sites to the national maps, even where appropriate to do so. This paper examines the underlying uncertainties in the national critical load maps showing how the maps could give misleading results if used for site-specific assessments. It also includes advice on how to determine when the national data may be appropriate as a policy-tool at the site-level.     

On-field investigation and process modelling of End-of-Life Vehicles treatment in the context of Italian craft-type Authorized Treatment Facilities

The present article analyses the current situation of End-of-Life-of-Vehicles (ELVs) management in Europe, with particular attention on Italian condition. Similarly to other European countries, metal recycling is the main activity of the whole system, but such situation is evolving due to the 2000/53/EC Directive, which sets out targets for Reuse, Recycling and Recovery of ELVs. Due to the relevance of the ELVs problem, in 2008 Italian Ministry of Environment subscribed a framework agreement with competent stakeholders as carmakers, dismantlers, shredders. The main result is an industrial plan to promote (amongst other objectives) technological progress for residual waste (Automotive Shredder Residue – ASR) treatment. According with Italian Trial 2006 analysis about ELVs, Reuse and Recycling rate is currently estimated to be about 81%.At the present time, dismantling plants constitute the first collection points for ELVs; for this reason, during 2009 an investigation has been done over a number of ten Authorized Treatment Facilities (ATFs) operating in Italy. The first step of the analysis was aimed to find out major practices and methods through observations of ATFs activities and interviews to operators. Furthermore, the depollution and dismantling treatments of about 70 different ELVs have been observed and timed in detail over a period of three months. The results included the identification of most relevant critical issues in ELVs treatment, such as distortions between scrapping activities and Directive’s regulation, and the assessment of the time and of the resources needed to perform each operation.In the second step of the survey, a process simulation model has been built on the basis of such data. The model was aimed to include the real variability and all the uncertainties that are typical of dismantling activities; it is intended as a tool for process layout planning and for its management. Some control parameters have been introduced; these are able to dynamically modify process path depending on ELVs queues and priorities. The model can also be used for the economic assessments of single operations or of the whole treatment activity.     

Modeling Afforestation and the Underlying Uncertainties

A dynamic model of the carbon budget of an oak forest ecosystem that takes into account forest stand age was developed. A numerical experiment was designed to simulate the afforestation process, and a Monte Carlo simulation was performed to determine how parameter uncertainties and environmental variability influence the result. It was found that while the total amount of carbon stored in the ecosystem increases from 1.9 kg C/m² to 4.4 kg C/m² over the following 20 years, the relative standard deviation increases from 9 to 21%. The contribution of varying climate and carbon dioxide parameters to total uncertainty is substantial; for example, the standard deviation at the 10th modeling year for phytomass doubles and the uncertainties of the soil pool and total accumulated carbon increase by a factor of nearly 1.4, while the uncertainty of the litter pool stays almost at the same level.     

Modelling Seasonal Dynamics from Temporal Variation in Agricultural Practices in the UK Ammonia Emission Inventory

Most ammonia (NH₃) emission inventories have been calculated on an annual basis and do not take into account the seasonal variability of emissions that occur as a consequence of climate and agricultural practices that change throughout the year. When used as input to atmospheric transport models to simulate concentration fields, these models therefore fail to capture seasonal variations in ammonia concentration and dry and wet deposition. In this study, seasonal NH₃ emissions from agriculture were modelled on a monthly basis for the year 2000, by incorporating temporal aspects of farming practice. These monthly emissions were then spatially distributed using the AENEID model (Atmospheric Emissions for National Environmental Impacts Determination). The monthly model took the temporal variation in the magnitude of the ammonia emissions, as well as the fine scale (1-km) spatial variation of those temporal changes into account to provide improved outputs at 5-km resolution. The resulting NH₃ emission maps showed a strong seasonal emission pattern, with the highest emissions during springtime (March and April) and the lowest emissions during summer (May to July). This emission pattern was mainly influenced by whether cattle were outside grazing or housed and by the application of manures and fertilizers to the land. When the modelled emissions were compared with measured NH₃ concentrations, the comparison suggested that the modelled emission trend corresponds fairly well with the seasonal trend in the measurements. The remaining discrepancies point to the need to develop functional parametrisations of the interactions with climatic seasonal variation.     

Green house gas emissions from composting and mechanical biological treatment.

In order to carry out life-cycle assessments as a basis for far-reaching decisions about environmentally sustainable waste treatment, it is important that the input data be reliable and sound. A comparison of the potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with each solid waste treatment option is essential. This paper addresses GHG emissions from controlled composting processes. Some important methodological prerequisites for proper measurement and data interpretation are described, and a common scale and dimension of emission data are proposed so that data from different studies can be compared. A range of emission factors associated with home composting, open windrow composting, encapsulated composting systems with waste air treatment and mechanical biological waste treatment (MBT) are presented from our own investigations as well as from the literature. The composition of source materials along with process management issues such as aeration, mechanical agitation, moisture control and temperature regime are the most important factors controlling methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and ammoniac (NH3) emissions. If ammoniac is not stripped during the initial rotting phase or eliminated by acid scrubber systems, biofiltration of waste air provides only limited GHG mitigation, since additional N2O may be synthesized during the oxidation of NH3, and only a small amount of CH4 degradation occurs in the biofilter. It is estimated that composting contributes very little to national GHG inventories generating only 0.01-0.06% of global emissions. This analysis does not include emissions from preceding or post-treatment activities (such as collection, transport, energy consumption during processing and land spreading), so that for a full emissions account, emissions from these activities would need to be added to an analysis.     

EU strategies and policies on soil and waste management to offset greenhouse gas emissions

Climate change has become an important political priority in the environmental field, and beyond. To revert the increase in the Earth’s temperature, developed country parties to the Kyoto Protocol committed to limit their greenhouse gas emissions. The 15 Member States that made up the European Community in 1997 have a combined reduction target of 8% in CO₂-equivalent emissions in the period 2008–2012 compared to 1990. The role of soil, both as a source and a sink for carbon, is particularly important. How can soil organic matter be maintained or increased? There is no single answer, and a broad range of options need to be explored. Among the different measures proposed, the promotion of organic input on arable land (crop residues, cover crops, farm yard manure, compost, sewage sludge) has been mentioned. The challenge is to ensure that organic wastes of good quality are used to increase soil organic matter in carbon depleted soils and that appropriate monitoring is established. On the waste management front, the European Commission intends to produce guidance for Member States on the management of biowaste that will take into account all related environmental issues, including soil aspects. As for monitoring, the European Commission has put forward legislation according to which Member States would have to identify the areas at risk of soil organic matter decline in their national territory. Such legislation should be regarded as a major step forward for Europe, as it would ensure a high level of soil protection across the Community. This development will have the potential to enable the kind of estimation, measurement or modelling of crop or grazing land management needed for accounting under Article 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol.     

Particulate and gaseous emissions during fluidized bed combustion of semi-dried sewage sludge: Effect of bed ash accumulation on NOx formation

Combustion of two semi-dried sewage sludges in a 110 mm has been characterized in terms of particulate and gaseous emissions. Sludges differed in that they had been conditioned – at the flocculation stage of wastewater treatment – either with Ca-based inorganics or with polyelectrolytes. Combustion was efficient for both sewage sludges under all the operating conditions tested. Significant differences have instead been observed between the two types of sewage sludges as regards particulate and macro-pollutant gaseous emissions (SO₂, NO_x). NO_x formation is significantly influenced by ash accumulation inside the bed only when sewage sludge conditioned with Ca-based inorganics is fired. The time-resolved profiles of NO_x concentration and the mass flow rate of the elutriated fines have been worked out to evaluate the fuel nitrogen yield to NO_x as a function of ash accumulated inside the bed divided by the air mass feed rate. Experimental results have been compared with data present in literature.     

An overview of the US EPA’s multiple pathway exposure methodology

The US Environmental Protection Agency’s National Center for Environmental Assessment is finalizing its updated approach to assessing the health risks from direct and indirect exposure to combustion emissions. The prior 1990 Indirect Exposure Methodology has been used frequently in the early part of this decade, while the new methodology considers more pathways for agent transfer and exposure. This advanced methodology is not limited to exposure from combustion emissions as the approach lends itself to assessing indirect exposure to other agents in various exposure scenarios. The purpose of this presentation is to alert the user community to the new methodology and discuss its impacts on risk assessment. A brief overview of the exposure pathways, along with the inherent uncertainties of the MPE and the risk characterization, are presented. Other associated documentation is presented and referenced. The paper concludes with a discussion of the planned implementation of the MPE and the Agency program guidance for use with RCRA combustor permitting and risk assessments.     

A Global Outlook to the Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the World and Emission Factors of the Thermal Power Plants in Turkey

World primary energy demand increases with increases in population and economic development. Within the last 25 yr, the total energy consumption has almost doubled. For the purpose of meeting this demand, fossil energy sources are used and various pollutants are generated. CO₂ is also one of these gases, which cannot be removed like other pollutants, and it causes greenhouse effect and climate change. Reducing the CO₂ emission is very important because of the environmental concerns and regulations, especially the Kyoto Protocol. This paper reviews the estimated world carbon emissions, Turkey's situation in electrical energy production, emission amounts estimated until the year 2020 and emission factors for dust, SO₂, NO_x and CO₂. The estimated results show that CO₂ emissions from thermal power plants in Turkey will make about 0.66 % of the global CO₂ emissions in 2020.     

Effect of carbon particles on heavy metal emissions under ash-melting conditions

In Japan, incineration ash is subjected to a melting process to reduce waste volume and to stabilize hazardous heavy metals. In previous articles, we reported that large quantities of volatile metals are emitted under ash-melting conditions at temperatures higher than 1200°C and that such emissions are considerably increased under reducing conditions. However, the emission behavior in the presence of large amounts of char particles was unclear, and we suspected that emissions under these conditions might differ from emissions under the previous conditions. Therefore, we investigated heavy metal emissions and the melting characteristics of ash in the presence of carbon particles. In this experiment, a small crucible with ash and carbon was rapidly heated using a high-frequency induction-heating furnace to simulate the melting ash gasification with carbon. As a result, it was found that additive carbon can promote emissions of heavy metals such as zinc and lead and control the melt of the ash.     

Cost effective waste management through composting in Africa

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per person from urban waste management activities are greater in sub-Saharan African countries than in other developing countries, and are increasing as the population becomes more urbanised. Waste from urban areas across Africa is essentially dumped on the ground and there is little control over the resulting gas emissions. The clean development mechanism (CDM), from the 1997 Kyoto Protocol has been the vehicle to initiate projects to control GHG emissions in Africa. However, very few of these projects have been implemented and properly registered. A much more efficient and cost effective way to control GHG emissions from waste is to stabilise the waste via composting and to use the composted material as a soil improver/organic fertiliser or as a component of growing media. Compost can be produced by open windrow or in-vessel composting plants. This paper shows that passively aerated open windrows constitute an appropriate low-cost option for African countries. However, to provide an usable compost material it is recommended that waste is processed through a materials recovery facility (MRF) before being composted. The paper demonstrates that material and biological treatment (MBT) are viable in Africa where they are funded, e.g. CDM. However, they are unlikely to be instigated unless there is a replacement to the Kyoto Protocol, which ceases for Registration in December 2012.     

Strategies for the municipal waste management system to take advantage of carbon trading under competing policies: The role of energy from waste in Sydney

Climate change is a driving force behind some recent environmental legislation around the world. Greenhouse gas emission reduction targets have been set in many industrialised countries. A change in current practices of almost all greenhouse-emitting industrial sectors is unavoidable, if the set targets is to be achieved. Although, waste disposal contributes around 3% of the total greenhouse gas emissions in Australia (mainly due to fugitive methane emissions from landfills), the carbon credit and trading scheme set to start in 2010 presents significant challenges and opportunities to municipal solid waste practitioners. Technological advances in waste management, if adopted properly, allow the municipal solid waste sector to act as carbon sink, hence earning tradable carbon credits. However, due to the complexity of the system and its inherent uncertainties, optimizing it for carbon credits may worsen its performance under other criteria. We use an integrated, stochastic multi-criteria decision-making tool that we developed earlier to analyse the carbon credit potential of Sydney municipal solid waste under eleven possible future strategies. We find that the changing legislative environment is likely to make current practices highly non-optimal and increase pressures for a change of waste management strategy.     

Risk Assessment in Remediation: Accurately Accounting for Uncertainty

Cleanup levels at hazardous waste sites are typically developed based at least in pan on either generic or site-specific risk assessments. Risk assessment in its purest form should be a measure of the potential for a site to cause adverse effects and therefore should be used as the basis for cleanup. However, the process of risk assessment continues to be subject to problems, primarily related to inherent uncertainties in the exposure parameters and toxicity criteria that are the building blocks of the risk assessment. Criticism of risk assessments and risk-based decisions range from comments that the process inadequately protects human health to comments that the process is overly protective, and examples of both ends of the spectrum are readily available. Site remediation professionals should be aware of the issues related to uncertainty and understand the potential problems in order to ensure appropriate and effective site cleanup. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Trace-level measurement of complex combustion effluents and residues using multidimensional gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (MDGC-MS)

The identification and quantitation of non-method-specific target analytes have greater importance with respect to EPA's current combustion strategy. The risk associated with combustion process emissions must now be characterized. EPA has recently released draft guidance on procedures for the collection of emissions data to support and augment site-specific risk assessments (SSRAs) as part of the hazardous waste incineration permitting process. This guidance includes methodology for quantifying total organic (TO) emissions as a function of compound volatility. The ultimate intent is to compare the amount of organic material identified and quantified by target analyte-specific methodologies to organic emissions quantified by the TO methodology. The greater the amount accounted for by the target analyte-specific methodologies, the less uncertainty may be associated with the SSRAs. A limitation of this approach is that the target analyte-specific methodologies do not routinely quantify compounds of low toxicological interest; nor do they target products of incomplete combustion (PICs). Thus, the analysis can miss both toxic and non-toxic compounds. As a result, it is unknown whether the uncharacterized fraction of the TO emission possesses toxic properties. The hypothesis that we propose to test is that organic emissions and organics extracted from particulate matter (PM) are more complex than standard GC-MS-based instrumentation can currently measure. This complexity can affect quantitation for toxic compounds, thereby potentially affecting risk assessments. There is a pressing need to better characterize these organic emissions from hazardous waste incinerators and PM extracts from various other combustion sources. We will demonstrate that multidimensional gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (MDGC-MS) procedures significantly improve chromatographic separation for complex environmental samples. Sequential repetitive heart-cutting MDGC, with coupled mass spectrometry will be shown to be a complete analysis technique. The ability of this technique to disengage components from complex mixtures taken from hazardous and municipal waste incinerators will be shown.