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1.
The estimation of upper percentiles of chemical concentrations in surface water systems within sites and regions may be necessary for the assessment of potential risk to ecosystems and human health. Limited sample sizes at monitoring sites often limit the use of direct methods to estimate upper percentiles. In such cases, upper percentiles within regions within a time frame may be estimated by pooling data across sites and years, and then deriving percentile estimates from the pooled dataset. The method uses the observations resulting from either a known probability-sampling design or a sampling design treated like one because its observations come close to matching that of a probability-sample. These observations are then weighted to ensure that estimates are representative of a target population across all the sites within the region and the range of years in the time frame. This method of estimating upper percentiles of annual site concentration profiles is demonstrated using atrazine and validated using the monitoring data from both sparsely sampled and high-frequency water monitoring programs, where point and interval estimates of the 90th, 95th, and 99th pooled population percentiles are provided. This method shows that the pooled data from multiple sparse datasets can be used to provide estimates of near-peak concentrations with greater certainty, which are consistent with those generated by high-frequency sampling monitoring programs.  相似文献   

2.
ABSTRACT: A synoptic sampling of five surface-water sites in central Nebraska was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of its National Water-Quality Assessment Program during storm runoff in May 1992 to relate transport, yields, and concentrations of atrazine to environmental setting. Atrazine was the most extensively applied pesticide in the study unit. Atrazine transport was related to the size of contributing drainage area, quantity of atrazine applied, amount of precipitation, and volume of stream-flow. Estimated yields and mean concentrations of atrazine were related to the percentage of cropland in a drainage area. The largest estimated yields and mean concentrations of atrazine in surface water were associated from drainage areas with the highest percentage of cropland, and the smallest was associated with the smallest amount of cropland. Atrazine concentrations increased as streamflow increased but decreased at or near the time of peak streamflows, perhaps due to dilution. Atrazine concentrations then increased and remained elevated far into the stream recession. Atrazine is a regulated contaminant in finished public-water supplies. Large concentrations of atrazine could affect the management of public-water supplies because atrazine remains in solution in contrast to many other pesticides that are more easily removed.  相似文献   

3.
ABSTRACT: Since 1991, the U.S. Geological Survey has been conducting the National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program to determine the quality of the Nation's water resources. In an effort to obtain a better understanding of why pesticides are found in shallow ground water on a national scale, a set of factors likely to affect the fate and transport of two herbicides in the subsurface were examined. Atrazine and metolachlor were selected for this discussion because they were among the most frequently detected pesticides in ground water during the first phase of the NAWQA Program (1993 to 1995), and each was the most frequently detected compound in its chemical class (triazines and acetanilides, respectively). The factors that most strongly correlated with the frequencies of atrazine detection in shallow ground‐water networks were those that provided either: (1) an indication of the potential susceptibility of ground water to atrazine contamination, or (2) an indication of relative ground‐water age. The factors most closely related to the frequencies of metolachlor detection in ground water, however, were those that estimated or indicated the intensity of the agricultural use of metolachlor. This difference is probably the result of detailed use estimates for these compounds being available only for agricultural settings. While atrazine use is relatively extensive in nonagricultural settings, in addition to its widespread agricultural use, metolachlor is used almost exclusively for agricultural purposes. As a result, estimates of agricultural applications provide a less reliable indication of total chemical use for atrazine than for metolachlor. A multivariate analysis demonstrated that the factors of interest explained about 50 percent of the variance in atrazine and metolachlor detection frequencies among the NAWQA land‐use studies examined. The inclusion of other factors related to pesticide fate and transport in ground water, or improvements in the quality and accuracy of the data employed for the factors examined, may help explain more of the remaining variance in the frequencies of atrazine and metolachlor detection.  相似文献   

4.
ABSTRACT: Recent developments in water quality monitoring have generated interest in combining non-probability and probability data to improve water quality assessment. The Interagency Task Force on Water Quality Monitoring has taken the lead in exploring data combination possibilities. In this paper we take a developed statistical algorithm for combining the two data types and present an efficient process for implementing the desired data augmentation. In a case study simulated Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) probability data are combined with auxiliary monitoring station data. Auxiliary stations were identified on the STORET water quality database. The sampling frame is constructed using ARC/INFO and EPA's Reach File-3 (RF3) hydrography data. The procedures for locating auxiliary stations, constructing an EMAP-SWS sampling frame, simulating pollutant exposure, and combining EMAP and auxiliary stations were developed as a decision support system (DSS). In the case study with EMAP, the DSS was used to quantify the expected increases in estimate precision. The benefit of using auxiliary stations in EMAP estimates was measured as the decrease in standard error of the estimate.  相似文献   

5.
The United States Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) will monitor the nation's resources by evaluating the status and trends of selected indicators of condition using a probability-based sampling design. The EMAP-Wetlands program will monitor the condition of the nation's wetlands. The EMAP classification system is an aggregation of the many subclasses of the US Fish and Wildlife Service's National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) classification system. This aggregation results in fewer wetland classes with more wetlands per class than the NWI system. Aggregation of the NWI classification was based primarily on dominant vegetation cover, flooding regimes, dominant water source, and adjacency to rivers and lakes. We evaluated the EMAP classification system and sampling design using NWI digital wetlands data for portions of Illinois, Washington, North Dakota, and South Dakata. Relative numbers of wetlands, total areas, average areas, and common versus rare classes were compared between the EMAP and NWI classification systems. As expected, the EMAP classification provided fewer wetland polygons, each with larger areas, without altering total wetland area. Summary statistics comparing sample estimates to true population parameters (represented by the NWI data) demonstrated the effectiveness of the EMAP sampling design with the exception of rare EMAP classes in the selected regions. Although simple random sampling is inadequate for both large and small wetlands, the EMAP sampling design is readily adapted to provide better estimates for these categories. Aggregating the NWI classification to the EMAP classification provides fewer wetland classes, with more wetlands per class, for EMAP's annual reports and statistical summaries. The research in this report has been funded by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under contracts 68-C8-0006 to ManTech Environmental Technology, Inc. and 68-03-3532 to The Bionetics Corporation. Mention of trade names does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.  相似文献   

6.
What size sample is sufficient for spatially sampling ambient groundwater quality? Water quality data are only as spatially accurate as the geographic sampling strategies used to collect them. This research used sequential sampling and regression analysis to evaluate groundwater quality spatial sampling policy changes proposed by California's Department of Water Resources. Iterative or sequential sampling of a hypothetical groundwater basin's water quality produced data sets from sample sizes ranging from 2.8% to 95% coverage of available point sample sites. Contour maps based on these sample data sets were compared to an original (control), mapped hypothetical data set, to determine at which point map information content and pattern portrayal are not improved by increasing sample sizes. Comparing series of contour maps of ground water quality concentration is a common means of evaluating the geographic extent of groundwater quality change. Comparisons included visual inspection of contout maps and statistical tests on digital versions of these map files, including correlation and regression products. This research demonstrated that, down to about 15% sample site coverage, there is no difference between contour maps produced from the different sampling strategies and the contout map of the original data set.  相似文献   

7.
Abstract: Streamlined sampling procedures must be used to achieve a sufficient sample size with limited resources in studies undertaken to evaluate habitat status and potential management‐related habitat degradation at a regional scale. At the same time, these sampling procedures must achieve sufficient precision to answer science and policy‐relevant questions with an acceptable and statistically quantifiable level of uncertainty. In this paper, we examine precision and sources of error in streambed substrate characterization using data from the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, which uses a modified “pebble count” method in which particle sizes are visually estimated rather than measured. While the coarse (2?) size classes used in EMAP have little effect on the precision of estimated geometric mean (Dgm) or median (D50) particle diameter, variable classification bias among observers can contribute as much as 0.3?, or about 15‐20%, to the root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of Dgm or D50 estimates. Dgm and D50 estimates based on EMAP data are nearly equal when fine sediments (<2 mm) are excluded, but otherwise can differ by up to a factor of 2 or more, with Dgm < D50 for gravel‐bed streams. The RMSE of reach‐scale particle size estimates based on visually classified particle count data from EMAP surveys, including variability associated with reoccupying unmarked sample reaches during revisits, is up to five to seven times higher than that reported for traditional measured pebble counts by multiple observers at a plot scale. Nonetheless, a variance partitioning analysis shows that the ratio of among site to revisit variance for several EMAP substrate metrics exceeds 8 for many potential regions of interest, suggesting that the data have adequate precision to be useful in regional assessments of channel morphology, habitat quality, or ecological condition.  相似文献   

8.
Abstract: Although the term ``pebble count'' is in widespread use, there is no standardized methodology used for the field application of this procedure. Each pebble count analysis is the product of several methodological choices, any of which are capable of influencing the final result. Because there are virtually countless variations on pebble count protocols, the question of how their results differ when applied to the same study reach is becoming increasingly important. This study compared three pebble count protocols: the reach‐averaged Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) protocol named after the EMAP developed by the Environmental Protection Agency, the habitat‐unit specific U.S. Forest Service’s PACFISH/INFISH Biological Opinion (PIBO) Effectiveness Monitoring Program protocol, and a data‐intensive method developed by the authors named Sampling Frame and Template (SFT). When applied to the same study reaches, particle‐size distributions varied among the three pebble count protocols because of differences in sample locations within a stream reach and along a transect, in particle selection, and particle‐size determination. The EMAP protocol yielded considerably finer, and the PIBO protocol considerably coarser distributions than the SFT protocol in the pool‐riffle study streams, suggesting that the data cannot be used interchangeably. Approximately half of the difference was due to sampling at different areas within the study reach (i.e., wetted width, riffles, and bankfull width) and at different locations within a transect. The other half was attributed to using different methods for particle selection from the bed, particle‐size determination, and the use of wide, nonstandard size classes. Most of the differences in sampling outcomes could be eliminated by using simple field tools, by collecting a larger sample size, and by systematically sampling the entire bankfull channel and all geomorphic units within the reach.  相似文献   

9.
Estimates of terrestrial Broad Habitat cover for Wales from the Countryside Survey 2000 stratified sample field mapping programme in Britain are compared with the findings of a full census field mapping project, the Habitat Survey of Wales. The Countryside Survey sampling regime comprised a stratified random sample of 1 km squares [corrected] covering <0.5% of the land surface. Comparative assessment indicates that although few of the sample-derived estimates for individual Broad Habitats are within 30% of the full census survey results, relative extents accord with data from the complete census survey for all Broad Habitats apart from Arable & Horticultural. The accuracy of this estimate is improved when the national boundary of Wales is taken into account in the sample stratification scheme. It is suggested that cultural land-use differences between countries render cropland habitat extent less predictable from physical environmental parameters than semi-natural habitat extent. It is also shown that the precision of sample-derived cover estimates is influenced by habitat pattern: the error term associated with habitats of broadly equal extent is greater for those with the most clumped distributions.  相似文献   

10.
Pesticide transport through the unsaturated zone is a function of chemical and soil characteristics, application, and water recharge rate. The fate and transport of 82 pesticides and degradates were investigated at five different agricultural sites. Atrazine and metolachlor, as well as several of the degradates of atrazine, metolachlor, acetochlor, and alachlor, were frequently detected in soil water during the 2004 growing season, and degradates were generally more abundant than parent compounds. Metolachlor and atrazine were applied at a Nebraska site the same year as sampling, and focused recharge coupled with the short time since application resulted in their movement in the unsaturated zone 9 m below the surface. At other sites where the herbicides were applied 1 to 2 yr before sampling, only degradates were found in soil water. Transformations of herbicides were evident with depth and during the 4-mo sampling time and reflected the faster degradation of metolachlor oxanilic acid and persistence of metolachor ethanesulfonic acid. The fraction of metolachlor ethanesulfonic acid relative to metolachlor and metolachlor oxanilic acid increased from 0.3 to >0.9 at a site in Maryland where the unsaturated zone was 5 m deep and from 0.3 to 0.5 at the shallowest depth. The flux of pesticide degradates from the deepest sites to the shallow ground water was greatest (3.0-4.9 micromol m(-2) yr(-1)) where upland recharge or focused flow moved the most water through the unsaturated zone. Flux estimates based on estimated recharge rates and measured concentrations were in agreement with fluxes estimated using an unsaturated-zone computer model (LEACHM).  相似文献   

11.
The recently developed type transfer function (TTF) simulation approach was applied to generate a regional-scale nonpoint-source ground water vulnerability assessment for the San Joaquin Valley, California. The computationally comparatively inexpensive TTF approach produces quantitative estimates of contaminant concentrations for large regional scales through characteristic functions based on different soil textures and their leaching properties. The TTF simulations employed an extensive soil and recharge database to estimate atrazine (1-chloro-3-ethylamino-5-isopropylamino-2,4,6-triazine) concentrations at a compliance depth of 3 m resulting from a surface application. Two different sets of TTFs with two different levels of upscaling were used for spatially uniform and distributed recharge estimates. Results show that estimated atrazine concentrations can be related to soil survey information. Areas with high potential vulnerability to atrazine leaching were found for soils with low organic carbon content and sandy loam and loam textures. Travel times for atrazine peak concentrations to the compliance depth ranged from 350 to 730 d. The extent of areas with estimated atrazine concentrations above the maximum contaminant level was less extensive when uniform annual recharge values were used. Simulated TTF concentrations were highest for eastern Fresno County, a vulnerability pattern that is also supported by field observations. The TTF modeling approach is shown to be a useful tool for quantitative pesticide leaching estimates at regional scales significantly larger than those of previous studies.  相似文献   

12.
Community water systems (CWS) face significant competing forces for change from decreasing water resource availability, stricter water quality regulations, decreasing federal subsidies, increasing public scrutiny, decreasing financial health, and increasing infrastructure replacement costs. These competing forces necessitate increasing consolidation responses among financially stressed CWS. Consolidation responses allow financially stressed CWS to increase levels of service by taking advantage of economy of scale benefits, such as eliminating service duplications across administration and operational functions. Consolidation responses also promote improved financial accountability among consolidating CWS, especially when operating as integral subsystems of a larger regional drinking water supply (RDWS) system. The goal of this paper is to propose a conceptual model for robust performance assessment and evaluation (PAE) among consolidating CWS. The objectives of this paper are to conceptualize methods for: (1) consistent performance assessment and (2) uniform summative performance evaluation among consolidating CWS. The expected outcome from implementing robust PAE among consolidating CWS is increased levels of service through transparent benchmarking and improved financial accountability. The proposed robust PAE model provides the basis for constructing decision support system (DSS) tools that estimate efficient solutions for allocating limited financial resources among consolidating CWS. The paper is a significant departure from current CWS PAE approaches in two ways. First, it provides a goal-oriented approach for robust PAE among consolidating CWS. Second, it constructs efficiency-based performance metrics to temporally and spatially monitor the degree of attainment of the RDWS systems' goal.  相似文献   

13.
ABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to present a theory and model for assessing the financial health of public water systems. Using financial information from 25 water utilities in Georgia, the paper seeks to identify the causal relationships between the financial performance of a water utility and its fiscal position. The need for a theoretical understanding of water utility financial health is the result of the increasingly stringent performance requirements under the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA). The issue has become particularly important for small water systems that will be exposed to significant financial demands. A set of financial ratios were developed and tested in a model that was based on liquid asset theory. The model contained five variables designed to account for the size of liquid assets, current debt, cash-flow, and the level of expenses. The variables fit the need of water utilities: to provide an adequate level of operation and maintenance to meet current and future system needs as well as SDWA standards.  相似文献   

14.
Tobit regression models were developed to predict the summed concentration of atrazine [6-chloro--ethyl--(1-methylethyl)-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine] and its degradate deethylatrazine [6-chloro--(1-methylethyl)-1,3,5,-triazine-2,4-diamine] (DEA) in shallow groundwater underlying agricultural settings across the conterminous United States. The models were developed from atrazine and DEA concentrations in samples from 1298 wells and explanatory variables that represent the source of atrazine and various aspects of the transport and fate of atrazine and DEA in the subsurface. One advantage of these newly developed models over previous national regression models is that they predict concentrations (rather than detection frequency), which can be compared with water quality benchmarks. Model results indicate that variability in the concentration of atrazine residues (atrazine plus DEA) in groundwater underlying agricultural areas is more strongly controlled by the history of atrazine use in relation to the timing of recharge (groundwater age) than by processes that control the dispersion, adsorption, or degradation of these compounds in the saturated zone. Current (1990s) atrazine use was found to be a weak explanatory variable, perhaps because it does not represent the use of atrazine at the time of recharge of the sampled groundwater and because the likelihood that these compounds will reach the water table is affected by other factors operating within the unsaturated zone, such as soil characteristics, artificial drainage, and water movement. Results show that only about 5% of agricultural areas have greater than a 10% probability of exceeding the USEPA maximum contaminant level of 3.0 μg L. These models are not developed for regulatory purposes but rather can be used to (i) identify areas of potential concern, (ii) provide conservative estimates of the concentrations of atrazine residues in deeper potential drinking water supplies, and (iii) set priorities among areas for future groundwater monitoring.  相似文献   

15.
The ability to detect and to develop a precise and accurate estimate of the entrainment mortality fraction is an important step in projecting power plant impacts on future fish population levels. Recent work indicates that these mortailities may be considerably less than 100% for some fish species in the early life stages. Point estimates of the entrainment mortality fraction have been developed based on probabilistic arguments, but the precision of these estimates has not been studied beyond the simple statistical test of the null hypothesis that no entrainment mortaility exists.The ability to detect entrainment mortality is explored as a function of the sample sizes (numbers of organisms collected) at the intake and discharge sampling stations of a power plant and of the proportion of organisms found alive in the intake samples (intake survival). Minimum detectable entrainment mortality, confidence interval width, and type II error (probability of accepting the null hypothesis of no entrainment mortality when there is mortality) are considered. Increasing sample size and/or decreasing sampling mortality will decrease the minimum detectable entrainment mortality, confidence interval width, and type II error for a given level of type I error.The results of this study are considered in the context of designing useful monitoring programs for determining the entrainment mortality fraction. Preliminary estimates of intake survival and the entrainment mortality fraction can be used to obtain estimates of the sample size needed for a specified level of confidence interval width or type II error. Final estimates of the intake survival and the entrainment mortality fraction can be used to determine the minimum detectable entrainment mortality and the type II error.  相似文献   

16.
ABSTRACT: Selective placement - under a rigorous statistical sampling design - of newly available monitoring equipment on irrigation systems may provide effective and economical estimates of total irrigation water use in areas where complete water use inventories are impractical. In 1979, a joint effort by the U.S. Geological Survey and Florida's Suwannee River Water Management District was launched to estimate the District's 1979 irrigation water use using a selective monitoring approach. Analysis of previous inventories of irrigation equipment and amounts of water applied in the District indicated that total 1979 water use estimates with six to nine percent sampling error could be obtained using selective monitoring, given the time and equipment limitations for the monitoring program. Restricting monitoring to a sample of farms can introduce systematic error to water use estimates if farmers' participation is related to their water use methods. Preliminary results of the 1979 study indicate tht declining participation rates, if unchecked, could lead to serious systematic eror in future North Florida selective monitoring studies.  相似文献   

17.
ABSTRACT: Liquid dominated geothermal systems are expected to account for most of the growth in geothermal energy production in the coming decades. Production of water from such systems could significantly augment fresh water supplies. The feasibility of water exploitation is clouded by potential problems related to seismic impacts, land subsidence and the composition of geothermal brines. If these problems can be overcome at little cost, desalination of brines may be feasible. Estimates of water production costs are presented for a variety of desalination technologies, plant sizes and brine water compositions. These estimates show that production costs will range from $139.10/A.F. to $436.00/A.F. at the plant boundary. Economies of scale and brine composition are important determinants of cost. Production costs are substantially in excess of the value of water in alternative uses. However, in certain unique situations, it may be efficient to desalt brines for use in upgrading the quality of municipal water, industrial process water and irrigation water. Unique situations aside, geothermal brines are not likely to provide an economical source of fresh water in the absence of striking changes in the patterns of supply and demand for water.  相似文献   

18.
ABSTRACT: Churchill County, Nevada, has approximately 23,000 residents, among whom an estimated 13,500 relied on private wells for water supply in 2002. This study examined exposure to arsenic in water supplies among residents with private domestic wells and factors related to householder choice to consume tap water. It compared opinions and concerns about water quality with consumption habits and observed concentrations from tap water samples. The results from 351 households indicated that a majority (75 percent) of respondents consumed tap water and that a minority (38 percent) applied treatment. Approximately 66 percent of those who consumed tap water were exposed to concentrations of arsenic that exceeded 10 ppb. Water consumption was related to application of treatment. Among 98 respondents who were not at all concerned about the health effects of aqueous arsenic, 59 (60 percent) reported consuming tap water with concentrations of arsenic exceeding 10 ppb. Conversely, among 86 respondents who were highly concerned about arsenic, 33 (37 percent) consumed tap water with concentrations of arsenic exceeding 10 ppb. Results from a national sampling effort showed that 620 of 5,304 private wells sampled (11.7 percent) had arsenic concentrations above 10 ppb. The paradox of awareness of arsenic in water supplies coupled with consumption of aqueous arsenic in concentrations greater than 10 ppb may be common in other parts of the nation. Enhanced educational efforts, especially related to tap water sampling and explanations of efficacy of available treatment, may be useful means of reducing exposure through private water supplies.  相似文献   

19.
ABSTRACT: This study determines the most cost effective spatial pattern of farming systems for improving water quality and evaluates the economic value of riparian buffers in reducing agricultural nonpoint source pollution in a Midwestern agricultural watershed. Economic and water quality impacts of alternative farming systems are evaluated using the CARE and SWAT models, respectively. The water quality benefits of riparian buffers are estimated by combining experimental data and simulated water quality impacts of fanning systems obtained using SWAT. The net economic value of riparian buffers in improving water quality is estimated by total watershed net return with riparian buffers minus total watershed net return without riparian buffers minus the opportunity cost of riparian buffers. Exclusive of maintenance cost, the net economic value of riparian buffers in reducing atrazine concentration from 45 to 24 ppb is $612,117 and the savings in government cost is $631,710. Results strongly support efforts that encourage farmers to develop or maintain riparian buffers adjacent to streams.  相似文献   

20.
This paper provides an introduction to a long-term biological monitoring program and the Environmental Management special issue titled Long-term Biological Monitoring of an Impaired Stream: Implications for Environmental Management. The Biological Monitoring and Abatement Program, or BMAP, was implemented to assess biological impairment downstream of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) facilities in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, beginning in 1985. Several of the unique aspects of the program include its long-term consistent sampling, a focus on evaluating the effectiveness of specific facility abatement and remedial actions, and the use of quantitative sampling protocols using a multidisciplinary approach. This paper describes the need and importance of long-term watershed-based biological monitoring strategies, in particular for addressing long-term stewardship goals at DOE sites, and provides a summary of the BMAP’s objectives, spatial and temporal extent, and overall focus. The primary components of the biological monitoring program for East Fork Poplar Creek in Oak Ridge, Tennessee are introduced, as are the additional 9 papers in this Environmental Management special issue.  相似文献   

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