"奶牛-沼气-牧草"循环型农业系统的能值分析

为探讨奶牛-沼气-牧草循环型农业模式(模式Ⅰ)的结构功能和生态经济效益,应用能值分析方法对其进行研究,并与单一奶牛养殖模式(模式Ⅱ)进行比较。结果表明:模式Ⅰ的净能值产出率(4.06)比模式Ⅱ(4.13)低;模式Ⅰ能值可持续发展指标值为10.27,模式Ⅱ为9.57,模式Ⅰ具有更高的可持续发展能力;模式Ⅰ的环境负载率(0.11)低于模式Ⅱ(0.12),并且模式Ⅱ能值废弃率为21.72%,模式Ⅰ为0,因此模式Ⅰ对环境的压力小;模式Ⅰ产出能值反馈率达到30.63%,系统自组织能力强。模式Ⅰ的净效益是模式Ⅱ的1.13倍,但产投比是模式Ⅱ的97.64%。以能值-货币价值计算的生态经济效益分析结果与实际经济效益分析结果基本一致。因此,模式Ⅰ具有环境压力小、自组织能力强、可持续发展能力较强的特征,但仍需进一步优化系统内部结构,提高生产效率。     

“奶牛-沼气-牧草”循环型农业系统的能值分析

为探讨“奶牛-沼气-牧草”循环型农业模式（模式I）的结构功能和生态经济效益,应用能值分析方法对其进行研究,并与单一奶牛养殖模式（模式Ⅱ）进行比较。结果表明：模式Ⅰ的净能值产出率（4．06）比模式Ⅱ（4．13）低;模式Ⅰ能值可持续发展指标值为10．27,模式Ⅱ为9．57,模式Ⅰ具有更高的可持续发展能力;模式Ⅰ的环境负载率（0．11）低于模式Ⅱ（0．12）,并且模式Ⅱ能值废弃率为21．72％,模式I为0,因此模式Ⅰ对环境的压力小;模式Ⅰ产出能值反馈率达到30．63％,系统自组织能力强。模式Ⅰ的净效益是模式Ⅱ的1．13倍,但产投比是模式Ⅱ的97．64％。以能值-货币价值计算的生态经济效益分析结果与实际经济效益分析结果基本一致。因此,模式Ⅰ具有环境压力小、自组织能力强、可持续发展能力较强的特征,但仍需进一步优化系统内部结构,提高生产效率。     

计算机辅助旅游规划的新型管理方法

本文所述的计算机辅助城市旅游管理模式可用于计算增长极限和最大利润,确定所能提供的服务性旅游和产品旅游的水平。该模式也有助于参与决策的各方确定一个可运行的旅游计划,用以协调和优化他们的目标,其中包括环境保护目标。     

南京古泉农村生态工程设计和建设的研究 Ⅹ.古泉生态工程实验场生态系统结构模型的应用研究

本文运用结构模型对南京古泉生态工程实验场的生态系统结构进行分析和结构优化。发现:1.该实验场的系统结构应分成四个层次,其中有两个层次是由循环单元构成。2.能量流动方向必须遵循层次分布顺序,否则该生态系统不能获得最大经济效益和生态效益。3.古泉生态工程实验场只有按由结构模型得出的优化结构组织生产,其生态效益和经济效益才能显著提高。据估计,在不增加投资的情况下,新结构的产值将是原结构产值的1.5倍以上。     

湘西生态系统服务时空变化分析

为提升丘陵屏障带生态系统服务技术,以典型喀斯特地貌地形特征且森林覆盖率较高的南方核心保护区域湘西为例,利用遥感(RS)、地理信息系统(GIS)获取1980—2018年各土地利用类型面积变化数据,进行区域生态系统服务价值核算及生态功能驱动力因素分析。结果表明:(1)1980—2018年湘西土地利用转移中,转出面积最大的是林地,为2 404 km~2,净转出面积最大的是耕地,为73 km~2,转入面积最大的是城建用地,为203 km~2;(2)在生态系统服务价值时空变化上,2010—2018年凤凰、古丈和永顺耕地减少较大,分别为3 886.14万元、1 470.43万元、2 835.83万元,2010—2018年花垣、龙山林地减少较大,分别为6 729.42万元、14 580.415 2万元,吉首市及周边的城镇用地明显增加;(3)2010年林地服务总价值达到最大值4 074 291.41万元,1980—2018年耕地总服务价值逐年递减,湘西生态系统服务总价值先增后减。综合以上各因素分析得出结论:湘西生态系统服务价值减少,生态系统服务能力正在下降;时空变化上,城建用地由州中心向周边扩散,水田耕地正朝着区域空心化的格局演变,有林地则正朝着边缘化的格局转变;湘西生态系统服务能力逐年下降主要是由政策性城建用地所致,其次是受暴雨引发的洪水泥石流等气象自然灾害影响。对此提出严守耕地红线、开荒造田,建立以森林为主的国家公园自然保护地建设、开发旅游景区,修建蓄水设施、加强防灾防水意识等初步建议,对于生态功能提升和农村社区可持续发展有着重要的意义。     

生物焦微观特性及分子结构研究

本文利用多种表征手段,研究了汞吸附剂核桃壳生物焦的热解特性、孔隙结构与官能团等微观特性,并基于所获得的化学结构利用ChemBioOffice构建了生物焦的分子结构单体模型.结果表明,生物质的热解过程分为三个阶段,所形成的生物焦孔隙发达,并含有丰富的表面官能团.生物焦的大分子结构中芳香碳是主要组成部分,而脂肪碳则起到联结芳香结构单元的作用.而且生物焦是一种短程有序的非晶态物质,结构中存在一定数量的石墨微晶结构.基于表征结果,所构建的分子模型以芳香结构为主,并含有1个甲基、4个羟基以及8个羰基,分子式为C_(55)H_(37)NO_(14),M_r=935.同时对模型进行了验证.另外,基于分子力学,在UFF、Dreiding和MM2,3种力场下对三维模型进行了结构优化,其中UFF力场优化后的三维结构的总势能最大,而MM2力场势能最小.利用量子化学半经验PM6方法对3种优化后构象的生成热进行了研究,其中Dreiding力场下优化的结构更稳定.     

鹞落坪自然保护区非使用价值的评估

选择鹞落坪自然保护区所在省份安徽省及其相邻省份江苏省,采用支付意愿法进行了支付意愿的问卷调查,对该保护区的非使用价值作定量评估。评估结果表明,鹞落坪自然保护区的非使用价值为198039.4万元·a-1,其中存在价值为106941.3万元·a-1,遗产价值为59411.8万元·a-1,选择价值为31686.3万元·a-1;江苏省和安徽省样本的平均支付意愿值(WTP)分别为42.0和14 4元·a-1;社会经济各因素与样本的支付意愿率及WTP之间的相关性在不同地区调查的结果有较大差异;对评估结果的敏感性分析显示,本次调查存在年龄和收入敏感性,存在教育程度不敏感性。     

环境约束下牧区人口和种群持续增长模型研究

利用多元统计分析方法,对青海湖地区历年人口和种群的统计数据进行分析,并建立在环境约束下人口和种群持续增长模型,对区域人口适度规模、畜群最大环境容纳量和最大持续产量进行了估算和分析。通过估算得出:青海湖地区牦牛环境容纳量为51.9327万头,最大可持续产量为12.9831万头;藏羊环境容纳量为231.203万只,最大可持续产量为57.8007万只。在此分析的基础上,利用建立的相关模型以5a为时间段对青海湖地区未来25a的人口和牲畜数量进行了预测。最后,针对性地提出了大力改善草地生态环境、提高草地利用率和增加草地面积、采取人为措施调节牲畜出栏率、改变草畜生态环境等高原牧区人口、资源与环境可持续发展的对策。     

厌氧条件下土壤中有机氯降解动力学模型及其参数优化——以五氯酚（PCP）为例

研究厌氧条件下土壤中有机氯降解动力学模型及其参数优化方法,对阐明有机氯降解的动力学反应机制具有十分重要的理论意义。文章以厌氧条件下土壤中五氯酚（PCP）降解为例,归纳介绍了两类用于描述土壤中PCP降解动力学过程的模型：一类模型是不考虑微生物生长的基质降解模式,以一级动力学模型最有代表性,但这类模型多数情况下没有或没有完全体现环境因素对PCP降解的抑制作用;另一类模型是考虑微生物生长的基质降解模式,以Monod动力学模型使用最普遍,但这类模型只在微生物生长的指数期适用,对延迟期、稳定期和衰亡期需经扩展才可应用。logistic动力学模型可广泛用于以上两类模型,是可以近似地描述微生物经适应过程和共代谢作用而致有机氯降解的简单模型。文章还总结了有机氯降解非线性模型参数的优化方法,并对其优缺点进行了分析和比较。针对目前土壤中有机氯降解动力学模型及其参数优化研究中存在的问题,对今后的研究方向进行了展望。     

稻-虾(克氏原螯虾)综合种养模式的碳足迹分析

探明稻-虾(克氏原螯虾)综合种养模式的碳足迹大小及其构成特征,对促进稻-虾综合种养低碳发展具有重要意义。该研究采用问卷调查法,运用碳足迹理论系统分析稻-虾生产模式碳足迹产生及其构成,并进一步分析其主要影响因素。结果表明:稻-虾生产模式下单位面积碳足迹为7 859 kg·hm~(-2)(以CO_2当量计,全文同),介于稻-麦(10 650 kg·hm~(-2))和单季稻生产模式(5 483 kg·hm~(-2))之间;单位产值和单位利润碳足迹分别为0.11和0.26 kg·元~(-1)(以CO_2当量计,全文同),分别比稻-麦和单季稻生产模式降低64.26%、60.65%和67.37%、45.02%。与稻-麦相比,稻-虾生产模式显著降低直接碳排放,间接碳排放无显著性差异;与单季稻相比,稻-虾生产模式显著提高间接碳排放,对直接碳排放无显著影响。稻-虾生产模式下,碳足迹大小与虾产量、产值和利润呈"抛物线"型变化趋势,在碳足迹为7 458、7 855和7 363 kg·hm~(-2)时能够分别获得产量、产值和利润最大化。生产规模对稻-虾生产模式碳足迹具有显著影响,小规模(5.00 hm~2)和大规模(20.00 hm~2)生产有利于降低碳足迹、提高产值和利润。总之,相对于传统稻田生产方式,稻-虾生产模式能够有效减排增效,但应关注碳足迹与经济效益之间的权衡点,促进稻-虾生产模式的绿色高效发展。     

A model for ecological assessment to pesticide pollution management

Applying the relational analysis in the Grey System Theory and Method, the comprehensive evaluation on five pesticide pollution controlling techniques in the vegetable production has been made and a comprehensive profit (cp–comprehensive cost (cc) evaluation system (composed of 15 comprehensive cost indices and 14 comprehensive profit indices) has been established, with a index optimization matrix of comprehensive cost indices and comprehensive profit indices obtained and a ratio model of comprehensive cost to comprehensive profit (R_cc/cp) built. Results show that the R_cc/cp value of vegetables intercropping soybeans in insect-proof thin film greenhouses is the smallest and the R_cc/cp value of vegetables intercropping taros in insect-proof net greenhouses, pheromones in insect-proof thin film greenhouses, pheromones in insect-proof thin film greenhouses and ground planting (only using chemical pesticide for insect-proof without covering materials and synthetic sex pheromone) other four techniques are 0.6268, 0.6393, 0.6407, 0.9809 respectively. In accordance with the R_cc/cp value, vegetables intercropping soybeans in insect-proof thin film greenhouses can be the most optimized pesticide pollution controlling technique in the vegetable growing.     

Optimizing investment strategies for mangrove plantations by considering biological and economic parameters

Coastal deforestation in the Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar (formerly Burma) is addressed through the promotion of native-species mangrove plantations on cleared land formerly sustaining natural mangrove forests. To date there are no attempts to determine the optimal mangrove plantation strategy to maximize economic returns for private or communal plantation owners. We integrated empirical biological and economic data to suggest optimal mangrove plantation strategies in the region. We censused 4-yr oldAvicennia officinalis mangrove plantations in two townships to calculate survival and growth rates of mangroves planted using different techniques across an inundation gradient. We used the calculated rates to forecast the production of fuelwood, poles and posts at 10, 13 and 15 yr after establishment. We calculated the compound rate of growth for the three commodities over a 7-yr period, and then forecast commodity price for the same harvestintervals. Integration of those parameters in our model led us to conclude that both profit and the internal rate of return would be greatest for plantations of seedlings raised in polyethylene bags as opposed to bare-root or direct propagule planting. Therefore, the use of potted seedlings should be promoted, despite higher initial costs. The optimal rotation period varies according to ground level and planting technique. Optimizing economic returns for coastal plantations does not necessarily require a sacrifice of ecological benefits. Due to a discrepancy between official conversion quotes and local real value no conversion estimate in USD is given.     

Viable contribution of Tibetan sacred mountains in southwestern China to forest conservation

The Tibetan sacred mountains (TSMs) cover a large area and may represent a landscape‐scale conservation opportunity. We compared the conservation value of forests in these mountains with the conservation value of government‐established nature reserves and unmanaged open‐access areas in Danba County, southwestern China. We used Landsat satellite images to map forest cover and to estimate forest loss in 1974–1989, 1989–1999, and 1999–2013. The TSMs (n = 41) and nature reserves (n = 4) accounted for 21.6% and 29.7% of the county's land area, respectively. Remaining land was open‐access areas (i.e., areas without any restrictions on resource use) (56.2%) and farmlands (2.2%). Within the elevation range suitable for forests, forest cover did not differ significantly between nature reserves (58.8%) and open‐access areas (58.4%), but was significantly higher in TSMs (65.5%) after controlling for environmental factors such as aspect, slope, and elevation. The TSMs of great cultural importance had higher forest cover, but patrols by monastery staff were not necessarily associated with increased forest cover. The annual deforestation rate in nonsacred areas almost tripled in 1989–1999 (111.4 ha/year) relative to 1974–1989 (40.4 ha/year), whereas the rate in TSMs decreased in the later period (19.7 ha/year vs. 17.2 ha/year). The reduced forest loss in TSMs in 1989–1999 was possibly due to the renaissance of TSM worship and strengthened management by the local Buddhist community since late 1980s. The annual deforestation rate in Danba decreased dramatically to 4.4 ha/year in 1999–2013, which coincided with the implementation of a national ban on logging in 1998. As the only form of protected area across the Tibetan region during much of its history, TSMs have positively contributed to conserving forest at a landscape scale. Conservation of TSM forests largely relied on the strength of local religious institutions. Integrating community‐based conservation of TSMs within the government conservation network would benefit the conservation of the Tibetan region.     

武汉城区NOx污染特征及其变化趋势

武汉城区大气中NOx的污染,一日中以早晨最重,下午最轻;一年中,冬季的浓度比夏季高出37.7%.交通稠密区和商业集中区大气中的NOx年日均浓度分别比郊区高5倍和4.3倍.统计研究的结果表明,九年间特别是近六年来,武汉城区大气中NOx年日均值呈上升趋势.从1984年～1989年,大气中的NOx日均浓度平均每年以7%的速度递增,其超标率平均每年以0.8%的速度递增.     

Optimizing investment strategies for mangrove plantations by considering biological and economic parameters

Coastal deforestation in the Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar (formerly Burma) is addressed through the promotion of native-species mangrove plantations on cleared land formerly sustaining natural mangrove forests. To date there are no attempts to determine the optimal mangrove plantation strategy to maximize economic returns for private or communal plantation owners. We integrated empirical biological and economic data to suggest optimal mangrove plantation strategies in the region. We censused 4-yr oldAvicennia officinalis mangrove plantations in two townships to calculate survival and growth rates of mangroves planted using different techniques across an inundation gradient. We used the calculated rates to forecast the production of fuelwood, poles and posts at 10, 13 and 15 yr after establishment. We calculated the compound rate of growth for the three commodities over a 7-yr period, and then forecast commodity price for the same harvest intervals. Integration of those parameters in our model led us to conclude that both profit and the internal rate of return would be greatest for plantations of seedlings raised in polyethylene bags as opposed to bare-root or direct propagule planting. Therefore, the use of potted seedlings should be promoted, despite higher initial costs. The optimal rotation period varies according to ground level and planting technique. Optimizing economic returns for coastal plantations does not necessarily require a sacrifice of ecological benefits. Due to a discrepancy between official conversion quotes and local real value no conversion estimate in USD is given.     

应用于水文预报的优化BP神经网络研究

利用广东省滨江流域的水文观测资料，建立了以前期降水量为预报因子、以水位为输出的BP人工神经网络水文预报模型。首先采用了合理的方法进行样本组织，进而利用最优子集回归技术进行输入因子的确定，然后进行了不同隐层节点数、不同转移函数、不同训练算法的组合试验，确定了应用于水文预报中的优化BP神经网络：网络结构为8-9-1；转移函数的组合方式为tansig-线性函数；训练算法为采用evenberg-Marquardt(Lm)算法。为便于精度分析，还采用了最优子集回归模型作了研究。结果表明，优化BP网络模型无论在拟合精度还是在预测精度上都高于最优子集模型。总的来说BP网络是一种精度较高的水文预测模型。     

Evidence for broadcast spawning as well as brooding in the scleractinian coral Pocillopora damicornis

The reproductive activity of 88 colonies of Pocillopora damicornis at Rottnest Island, Western Australia, was examined over 12 mo (20 August 1988 to 20 August 1989). Larvae were found close to the three new moons of February, March and April, 1989, but in large numbers only during March; 67% of all corals produced larvae. There was no obvious connection between gametogenesis and the production of brooded larvae; however, those corals which did not produce, larvae also did not produce ova but did produce, sperm, and must be considered male colonies. All colonies which produced ova went on to produce planulae. Spermatogenesis occurred throughout the year, but oogenesis occurred between September 1988 and April 1989. Dramatic declines in the percentage of polyps containing eggs and sperm occurred in early February and early April 1989. On these dates the amount of lipid in the tissue of the corals decreased, which suggests that the decline in the percentage of polyps with sperm and eggs was not due to the gametes being resorbed by the polyps. Therefore, P. damicornis at Rottnest Island appears to be both a brooder and a broadcaster with asexual reproduction through brooded larvae and sexual reproduction through spawning of gametes. This accounts for earlier evidence in the literature that some input from sexual reproduction had been occurring in the populations of P. damicornis at Rottnest Island. There is no direct evidence for spawning, as broadcasting of gametes has not been observed, but the indirect evidence provides a strong argument for the existence of this dual reproduction.     

Interannual variability in the spring phytoplankton bloom in Auke Bay,Alaska

Data on phytoplankton primary production, biomass, and species composition were collected during a 5 yr (1985–1989) study of Auke Bay, Alaska. The data were used to examine the interannual differences in the timing, duration, and magnitude of the spring phytoplankton blooms during each year and to relate these differences to interannual variations in weather patterns. Within any given year, a pre-bloom phase was characterized by low available light, low rates of primary production, low biomass, and predominantly small (<10µm) diatoms. During the primary bloom, integrated production rates rose to 4 to 4.5 g C m^–2 d^–1, and integrated biomass levels reached 415 to 972 mg chlorophyll m^–2. Primary blooms were usually dominated by large diatoms (Thalassiosira spp.), and in a single year (1989) byChaetoceros spp. The primary blooms terminated upon nutrient depletion in the euphotic zone. Secondary blooms, triggered by nutrient resupply from below, occurred sporadically after the primary bloom and accounted for 4 to 31% of total spring production. The date of initiation and the duration of the primary bloom varied little from year to year (standard deviation 3 and 5 d, respectively). Seasonal production rates and biomass levels varied interannually by a factor of 2 to 3. In contrast, intra-annual variations of more than an order of magnitude, especially in biomass, occurred over periods as short as 10 d. These large variations over short time periods indicate the importance of synchronous timing between spring blooms and the production of larval fish and shellfish, which depend on an appropriate and adequate food supply for growth and survival. Parameters describing primary production (e.g. peak daily production, mean daily production, and total production during the primary bloom and the entire season) exhibited little interannual variation (coefficient of variation, CV = 10 to 19%), but a large degree of intra-annual variation (CV = 77 to 116%). Similarly, interannual variations in biomass (peak chlorophyll, mean chlorophyll) were also lower (CV = 20 to 33%) than intra-annual variations (CV = 85 to 120%).     

乌鲁木齐市大气中SO2的灰色预测

根据灰色系统理论,联系乌鲁木齐市大气环境的实际状况,建立了精度检验为一级的灰色预测模型,并对大气中的SO2值进行了预测分析,结果表明,该预测模型具有较高的准确性、合理性和可信度.     

The production of lumber using chainsaws in Guyana

SUMMARY

The structure, conduct and performance, and the environmental impacts of the chainsaw lumber production sector in Guyana are investigated. Chainsaws are a highly mobile lumber technology that is used to rip or produce lumber within the forest. Chainsaw lumbering operations have become the dominant lumber producer for the domestic market. Production costs are only 53% of wholesale lumber prices. On a ms basis, chainsaw operations' net profit is 80% of the gross price paid for logs at sawmills and more than twice the profit of firms engaged in the harvesting and transportation of logs to sawmills. Sawmills recognize this cost advantage and are increasingly using chainsaws in the production of lumber.

The handling and transportation of chainsawn lumber within the forest is environmentally less damaging than log production. The log recovery rate is 10–15% for chainsaw operations, as compared to the sawmill average of 40–45%. Log residue from chainsaw operations is left within the forest which promotes faster forest regrowth, while that at sawmills is wasted. Chainsaw operations harvest immature trees, engage in the harvesting of selective species, over-harvest trees per unit area of land, and engage in frequent reentry of the forest. Because of these practices, the chainsaw lumber sector is not environmentally sustainable and will require regulation. Policies that follow a non-market solution will be required in regulation.