Combining hazard,exposure and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management

Flood risk assessments provide inputs for the evaluation of flood risk management (FRM) strategies. Traditionally, such risk assessments provide estimates of loss of life and economic damage. However, the effect of policy measures aimed at reducing risk also depends on the capacity of households to adapt and respond to floods, which in turn largely depends on their social vulnerability. This study shows how a joint assessment of hazard, exposure and social vulnerability provides valuable information for the evaluation of FRM strategies. The adopted methodology uses data on hazard and exposure combined with a social vulnerability index. The relevance of this state-of-the-art approach taken is exemplified in a case-study of Rotterdam, the Netherlands. The results show that not only a substantial share of the population can be defined as socially vulnerable, but also that the population is very heterogeneous, which is often ignored in traditional flood risk management studies. It is concluded that FRM measures, such as individual mitigation, evacuation or flood insurance coverage should not be applied homogenously across large areas, but instead should be tailored to local characteristics based on the socioeconomic characteristics of individual households and neighborhoods.     

Adaptation Options Strategies for Hazards and Vulnerability Mitigation: An International Perspective

The broad objective of this special issue of Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change is to address some of the gaps in our knowledge and understanding of the policies, programs, and measures that might be applied to natural hazards and their impacts in an era of climate change. Given the global impacts of climate change and world-wide pattern of increasing losses from natural hazards we necessarily adopt an international perspective. The specific goals of the special issue are to: (a) encompass experiential aspects, emphasizing current practice of mitigation and its associated measures, and their results; and (b) explore primary or root causes of alarming shifts in human and economic costs of environmental extremes. Special emphasis is placed on how human activities are playing a key role in enhancing vulnerability to NTEE (nature-triggered environmental extremes), quite independently from the anthropogenic causes of climate change. The goals are also (c) to examine costs, risks, and benefits (of all kinds including social, political, ecological) of mitigation, and adjustment and adaptation measures; and (d) analyze policy implications of alternative measures. These components are expected to make significant contributions to policy considerations – formulation, implementation and evaluation. There is much uncertainty about the rate of climate change; however, the fact of increase of the atmospheric temperature in the last century is no longer a subject of scientific or policy debate. Due to such changes in the geophysical parameters, certain types of nature-triggered environmental extreme events are likely to continue to increase. How global warming will affect regional climates and pertinent variables is not well known, limiting our ability to predict consequential effects. This factor poses serious constraints against any straightforward policy decisions. Research findings of the work of this volume reaffirm that human dimensions, specifically our awareness and decision-making behavior, are powerful explanatory factors of increasing disaster losses. Disaster mitigation through addressing human, social, and physical vulnerability is one of the best means for contributing to ‘climate change adaptation plans’, and sustainable development goals. Recent lessons from various countries have depicted that the formulation of mitigation strategies cannot be exclusively top-down as it requires social, political, and cultural acceptance and sense of ownership. An interactive, participatory process, involving local communities, produces best expected outcomes concerning mitigation, preparedness, and recovery. An emerging consensus is that there is a need to move towards the ‘mission’ of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction which aims at building disaster resilient communities by promoting increased awareness of the importance of disaster reduction as an integral component of sustainable development, with the goal of reducing human, social, economic and environmental losses due to natural hazards and related technological and environmental disasters. Sharing of best practices and lessons globally is certain to produce more efficiency and understanding in policy and decision making.     

A Method for Constructing a Social Vulnerability Index: An Application to Hurricane Storm Surges in a Developed Country

An important goal of vulnerability assessment is to create an index of overall vulnerability from a suite of indicators. Constructing a vulnerability index raises several problems in the aggregation of these indicators, including the decision of assigning weights to them. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a method of aggregating vulnerability indicators that results in a composite index of vulnerability, but that avoids the problems associated with assigning weights. The investigators apply a technique based on Pareto ranking to a complex, developed socioeconomic landscape exposed to storm surges associated with hurricanes. Indicators of social vulnerability to this hazard are developed and a principal components analysis is performed on proxies for these indicators. Overall social vulnerability is calculated by applying Pareto ranking to these principal components. The paper concludes that it is possible to construct an effective index of vulnerability without weighting the individual vulnerability indicators.     

A multi-criteria geographic information systems approach for the measurement of vulnerability to climate change

A flexible procedure for the development of a multi-criteria composite index to measure relative vulnerability under future climate change scenarios is presented. The composite index is developed using the Weighted Ordered Weighted Average (WOWA) aggregation technique which enables the selection of different levels of trade-off, which controls the degree to which indicators are able to average out others. We explore this approach in an illustrative case study of the United States (US), using future projections of widely available indicators quantifying flood vulnerability under two scenarios of climate change. The results are mapped for two future time intervals for each climate scenario, highlighting areas that may exhibit higher future vulnerability to flooding events. Based on a Monte Carlo robustness analysis, we find that the WOWA aggregation technique can provide a more flexible and potentially robust option for the construction of vulnerability indices than traditionally used approaches such as Weighted Linear Combinations (WLC). This information was used to develop a proof-of-concept vulnerability assessment to climate change impacts for the US Army Corps of Engineers. Lessons learned in this study informed the climate change screening analysis currently under way.     

Drivers of farm-level adaptation to climate change in Africa: an evaluation by a composite index of potential adoption

Over recent decades, there has been increasing levels of research dedicated to assess drivers of farm-level uptake of adaptation strategies to climate change. The main purpose of this research being to determine how policy intervention can most effectively increase adoption. This paper aims to synthesise this past research in order to scale up uptake of farm-level adaptation strategies through a composite index of potential adoption in Africa. In doing so, we review the estimated coefficients of econometric regressions in 42 case studies published in peer-review journals to identify the factors that regularly explain adoption. We find that these common factors can be grouped into seven components, that is human capital, financial resources, infrastructure and technology, social interaction and governance, food security, dependence on agriculture and attitudes towards the environment. Using national-level indicators of these seven categories, we develop a composite index to inform potential adoption and test the robustness of the index in an in-depth sensitivity analysis. The results show that the highest likelihood of adoption of farm-level adaptation strategies is in Northern African countries namely Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria and Morocco and in Southern African countries such as South Africa and Botswana. Conversely, they indicate that the lowest likelihood of adoption is situated in nations of the Sahel and Horn of Africa and in nations that have recently experienced conflict. We conclude that adoption is associated predominantly with governance, civil rights, financial resources and education. However, it is not necessarily driven by the magnitude of climate change impacts on agricultural production.     

Conceptualizing and operationalizing human wellbeing for ecosystem assessment and management

There is growing interest in assessing the effects of changing environmental conditions and management actions on human wellbeing. A challenge is to translate social science expertise regarding these relationships into terms usable by environmental scientists, policymakers, and managers. Here, we present a comprehensive, structured, and transparent conceptual framework of human wellbeing designed to guide the development of indicators and a complementary social science research agenda for ecosystem-based management. Our framework grew out of an effort to develop social indicators for an integrated ecosystem assessment (IEA) of the California Current large marine ecosystem. Drawing from scholarship in international development, anthropology, geography, and political science, we define human wellbeing as a state of being with others and the environment, which arises when human needs are met, when individuals and communities can act meaningfully to pursue their goals, and when individuals and communities enjoy a satisfactory quality of life. We propose four major social science-based constituents of wellbeing: connections, capabilities, conditions, and cross-cutting domains. The latter includes the domains of equity and justice, security, resilience, and sustainability, which may be assessed through cross-cutting analyses of other constituents. We outline a process for identifying policy-relevant attributes of wellbeing that can guide ecosystem assessments. To operationalize the framework, we provide a detailed table of attributes and a large database of available indicators, which may be used to develop measures suited to a variety of management needs and social goals. Finally, we discuss four guidelines for operationalizing human wellbeing measures in ecosystem assessments, including considerations for context, feasibility, indicators and research, and social difference. Developed for the U.S. west coast, the framework may be adapted for other regions, management needs, and scales with appropriate modifications.     

A goal oriented indicator framework to support integrated assessment of new policies for agri-environmental systems

The goal oriented framework (GOF) for indicators has been developed as part of a comprehensive research project developing computerised tools for integrated assessment of the effects of new policies or technologies on agricultural systems (SEAMLESS-IF). The ambition has therefore been to create an indicator framework where the environmental, economic and social dimensions of sustainable development can be related to each other in a consistent way. Integrated assessment tools rely on such frameworks to capture and visualise trade-offs (antagonisms or synergies) among indicators between and within the three dimensions of sustainable development. The specific aims of this paper are to (i) present the GOF (ii) present how the GOF can be used to select indicators within the integrated assessment framework SEAMLESS-IF and (iii) discuss the advantages and limitations with the proposed approach. We show that the GOF has several advantages. Its major rewards are its relative simplicity and the possibility to link indicators to policy goals of each dimension of sustainability and thereby facilitate the comparison of the impacts of the new policy on the different dimensions. Another important feature of the GOF is its multi-scale perspective, which will enable the comparison of effects of a new policy between scales. Yet, as typical for all indicator frameworks, the GOF has also biases either instigated by the issues the included models cover or by the stakeholders’ selection of indicators. However, due to the way the GOF and its indicators are technically implemented in SEAMLESS-IF, it can easily be extended and include new indicators to increase and update its policy relevance.     

SAFE—A hierarchical framework for assessing the sustainability of agricultural systems

Sustainable development and the definition of indicators to assess progress towards sustainability have become a high priority in scientific research and on policy agendas. In this paper, we propose a consistent and comprehensive framework of principles, criteria and indicators (PC&I) for sustainability assessment of agricultural systems, referred to as the Sustainability Assessment of Farming and the Environment (SAFE) framework. In addition we formulate consistent and objective approaches for indicator identification and selection. The framework is designed for three spatial levels: the parcel level, the farm level and a higher spatial level that can be the landscape, the region or the state. The SAFE framework is hierarchical as it is composed of principles, criteria, indicators and reference values in a structured way. Principles are related to the multiple functions of the agro-ecosystem, which go clearly beyond the production function alone. The multifunctional character of the agro-ecosystem encompasses the three pillars of sustainability: the environmental, economic and social pillars. Indicators and reference values are the end-products of the framework. They are the operational tools that are used for evaluating the sustainability of the agro-ecosystems. The proposed analytical framework is not intended to find a common solution for sustainability in agriculture as a whole, but to serve as an assessment tool for the identification, the development and the evaluation of agricultural production systems, techniques and policies.     

Development based climate change adaptation and mitigation—conceptual issues and lessons learned in studies in developing countries

This paper discusses the conceptual basis for linking development policies and climate change adaptation and mitigation and suggests an analytical approach that can be applied to studies in developing countries. The approach is centred on a broad set of policy evaluation criteria that merge traditional economic and sectoral goals and broader social issues related to health and income distribution. The approach is inspired by institutional economics and development paradigms that emphasise human wellbeing, resource access, empowerment, and the arrived freedoms. It is outlined how indicators of wellbeing can be used to assess policies that integrate development and climate change policy objectives, and this approach is discussed in comparison with other work that rather have been inspired by sustainable development aspects of manmade, natural, and social capital. The experiences and results from case studies of development and climate that have done a first attempt to use human wellbeing indicators are reported and discussed. The studies include work from India, China, South Africa, Brazil, Bangladesh, and Senegal. A number of policy examples in the energy-, food-, and water sectors in these studies have shown up to demonstrate numerous linkages between development policies and climate change. Various analytical tools have been used in the studies including quantitative and qualitative scenario work as well as detailed micro-based analysis. The methodological conclusion that can be drawn from these studies, is that it is possible to apply wellbeing indicators to the more detailed policy assessment, but a link to more general national and regional scenario work is not yet established.     

基于变权模型的唐山城市脆弱性演变预警分析

城市脆弱性评价预警是城市脆弱性研究的重要内容。研究以资源型城市唐山作为案例,基于资源、环境、经济和社会框架构建了城市脆弱性预警指标体系,引入惩罚型变权模型对2000—2014年城市脆弱性的警情进行评价测度,结合GM（1,1）模型对2015—2020年城市脆弱性警情进行了预测。结果表明：1）变权模型能够有效满足资源型城市脆弱性预警研究;2）2000—2014年,唐山城市脆弱性预警指数由0.449上升至0.716,警度等级呈下降态势,从“重警”演变为“轻警”,警情指示灯由“橙灯”演变为“蓝灯”;3）2015—2020年唐山城市脆弱性预警等级预测结果为“轻警”变为“无警”,警情指示灯为“蓝灯”变为“绿灯”。研究结果可为城市脆弱性评价提供方法基础和科学依据,为改善唐山脆弱状况提供决策支持。     

上海市环境污染事故风险受体脆弱性评价研究

从环境风险受体敏感性和适应力两方面构建了脆弱性概念模型,在此基础上,考虑社会经济脆弱性和生态系统脆弱性,选取14个指标构建了上海市环境污染事故风险受体综合脆弱性评价指标体系.研究结果表明：上海市中心城区社会脆弱性较高,而崇明岛、南汇、奉贤的社会经济脆弱性最低;黄浦江上游水源保护区、崇明岛东滩湿地生态系统脆弱性较高,浦东...     

Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Architecture of Entitlements

The objective of this paper is to outline a conceptual model of vulnerability to climate change as the first step in appraising and understanding the social and economic processes which facilitate and constrain adaptation. Vulnerability as defined here pertains to individuals and social groups. It is the state of individuals, of groups, of communities defined in terms of their ability to cope with and adapt to any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. This proposed approach puts the social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis, thereby reversing the central focus of approaches to climate impact assessment based on impacts on and the adaptability of natural resources or ecosystems and which only subsequently address consequences for human well-being. The vulnerability or security of any group is determined by the availability of resources and, crucially, by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. This perspective extends the concept of entitlements developed within neo-classical and institutional economics. Within this conceptual framework, vulnerability can be seen as a socially-constructed phenomenon influenced by institutional and economic dynamics. The study develops proxy indicators of vulnerability related to the structure of economic relations and the entitlements which govern them, and shows how these can be applied to a District in coastal lowland Vietnam. This paper outlines the lessons of such an approach to social vulnerability for the assessment of climate change at the global scale. We argue that the socio-economic and biophysical processes that determine vulnerability are manifest at the local, national, regional and global level but that the state of vulnerability itself is associated with a specific population. Aggregation from one level to another is therefore not appropriate and global-scale analysis is meaningful only in so far as it deals with the vulnerability of the global community itself.     

Igniting change in local government: lessons learned from a bushfire vulnerability assessment

Local governments and communities have a critical role to play in adapting to climate variability and change. Spatial vulnerability assessment is one tool that can facilitate engagement between researchers and local stakeholders through the visualisation of climate vulnerability and the integration of its biophysical and socio-economic determinants. This has been demonstrated through a case study from Sydney, Australia where a bushfire vulnerability assessment was undertaken as the first-step in a project to investigate local government perceptions of climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity. A series of relevant biophysical and socio-economic indicators was identified that represented the region’s exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity with respect to bushfires. These indicators were then combined to develop maps of net landscape vulnerability to bushfire. When presented in a workshop setting, vulnerability maps were successful in capturing the attention of stakeholders while simultaneously conveying information regarding the diversity of drivers that can contribute to current and future vulnerability. However, stakeholders were reluctant to embrace representations of vulnerability that differed from their own understanding of hazard, necessitating the demonstration of agreement between the vulnerability assessment and more conventional hazard assessment tools. This validation opened the door for public dissemination of vulnerability maps, the uptake and use of the assessment in local government risk assessment and adaptation planning, and more focused case-studies on barriers to adaptation.     

Adaptation Planning Support Toolbox: Measurable performance information based tools for co-creation of resilient,ecosystem-based urban plans with urban designers,decision-makers and stakeholders

Currently, most tools, guidelines and benchmarks for urban adaptation raise awareness on climate change impacts, assess the city’s vulnerability and/or address the need for adaptation on a policy-level. However, tools that have the ability to implement adaptation solutions in the actual urban planning and design practice seem to be missing. We developed and tested the Adaptation Planning Support Toolbox (APST) to fill this gap. This toolbox supports local policymakers, planners, designers and practitioners in defining the program of demands, in setting adaptation targets, in selecting from more than 60 blue, green and grey adaptation measures and with informed co-creation of conceptual adaptation plans. The APST provides quantitative, evidence-based performance information on (cost)effectiveness of adaptation measures regarding climate resilience and co-benefits. The APST can be used design workshops, to feed dialogues among stakeholders on where and how which ecosystem-based adaptation measures can be applied. Applications of the AST in various settings and context in cities on different continents have illustrated the added value of the toolbox in bringing policy and practice together with help of science. With more and more cities worldwide that will make the step from policymaking to actual adaptation-inclusive urban (re)development practice we foresee a growing demand for such tools.     

Coastal climate hazards and urban planning: how planning responses can lead to maladaptation

Urban planning has the potential to be a powerful tool for facilitating efficient and equitable adaptation to climate change-related coastal hazards (‘coastal climate hazards’). However, if urban planning measures are poorly designed or implemented, it can increase costs and vulnerability, and unfairly affect the interests of particular groups. Through a case study on the coastal climate hazard planning framework in Victoria, Australia, this paper aims to illustrate how urban planning measures can lead to maladaptation and draw lessons for the future design and implementation of planning responses. Five main policy lessons are drawn from the case study. First, planning frameworks should encourage the adoption of robust approaches that are as insensitive to the uncertainties associated with coastal climate hazards as possible. Secondly, policy makers need to be mindful of the opportunity costs and equity implications of planning responses. Thirdly, to be sustainable, planning responses must be robust to social and political factors, something that can be achieved through the use of flexible approaches that allow continued use and development of land but on conditions that protect the interests of governments and communities. Fourthly, policy makers need to be mindful of transaction costs. Finally, when devolving planning responsibilities to lower levels of government, policy makers need to ensure that the objectives of planning frameworks are clear, there is minimal ambiguity in decision guidelines, and that the resourcing and capacity constraints of planning bodies are appropriately considered.     

区域洪水灾害易损性评价

基于洪水灾害系统特征,提出了区域洪水灾害易损性概念,认为洪水灾害易损性是指在一定社会经济条件下,特定区域各类承灾体在遭受不同强度洪水后可能造成的损失程度;建立了包括致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体属性和社会救灾能力在内的洪水灾害易损性评价指标体系;基于层次分析法,构建了目标层为区域洪水易损性,准则层为致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和社会救灾能力,指标层为降水、地形、植被、生命、环境与经济等要素的区域洪水灾害易损性评价模型与评价方法。为便于决策,将易损性分为1～10共10个等级,等级越大,表明区域洪水易损性越高。      

The role of knowledge and research in facilitating social learning among stakeholders in natural resources management in the French Atlantic coastal wetlands

Environmental policy development increasingly refers to procedural approaches where local organisational structures are set up to initiate social interactions, to establish common working methods and to formulate collective agreements. In a context of complexity and uncertainty regarding environmental issues at stake, deliberations are mostly about managing interdependencies, i.e., building agreements and implementing changes so as to reconstruct the links between natural, technical and social phenomena. We see these deliberations as situations where social learning occurs; as an iterative process of knowledge co-production (i.e., of ‘knowing’) among stakeholders brought into interaction. Our research aims at better understanding these processes in the context of French Atlantic coastal wetlands where multi-stakeholder platforms for decision-making have become the dominant process for implementing natural resources management policies. Our studies focus on the challenge of managing the production and application of knowledge in social settings, in which scientists themselves come to play a role. They show how scientific knowledge can acquire heuristic value when used in the context of intervention research, as well as revealing some of the ethical dilemmas this may pose for the role of researcher.     

西北干旱荒漠生态区脆弱性动态监测及驱动因子定量分析

全球气候变化和人类活动双重胁迫下,西北干旱荒漠生态区的脆弱生态系统发生了深刻变化。论文在充分考虑研究区生态环境背景特征（沙漠化、盐渍化、风力侵蚀、干旱等灾害严重）的基础上,引入极端气候灾害因子（指示气候变化）和大尺度景观格局指数（指示人类活动对生态景观的干扰）,构建了西北干旱荒漠生态区的生态脆弱性评价体系,并对研究区2000—2013年的生态脆弱性时空变化格局及其驱动机制进行了定量分析和讨论。研究结果表明：西北干旱荒漠生态区的生态脆弱性总体上处于中-重度脆弱状态;其生态脆弱性空间分布格局总体上呈现自东向西递减的趋势,西部局部地区则呈现“E”字型格局,该分布格局主要受西北内陆地区大气环流以及三山夹两盆的特殊地貌影响;2000—2013年,西北干旱荒漠生态区生态脆弱性呈现减小趋势,其生态脆弱性变化状况受气温、降水以及人类活动影响显著。研究成果可以为西北干旱荒漠生态区的生态保护和治理提供决策支持。     

Indicators for assessing Indonesia’s Javan rhino National Park vulnerability to climate change

Climate change is already affecting ecosystems in protected forest areas. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted its impacts will accelerate rapidly over the coming decades. The components of vulnerability have been defined as exposure, sensitivity and the capacity to adapt to climate change. Vulnerability, however, is not an easy concept for policy makers, local communities and other affected stakeholders to understand. This paper illustrates the use of participatory processes in understanding climate change adaptation and defines indicators for assessing the vulnerability of the Javan rhino's national park habitat in Indonesia. The processes generated local vulnerability indicators, organised hierarchically as principles, criteria and indicators (PCIs). While vulnerability principles and criteria were pre-determined and globally defined, the indicators were designed to address the local context. We found the PCIs to be practical tools for communicating vulnerability and for multi-stakeholder dialogues on vulnerability to climate change.     

基于改进DRASTIC模型评价拉林河流域地下水脆弱性研究

以拉林河流域作为研究区,结合研究区实际条件对传统DRASTIC模型进行改进,利用层次分析法获得各指标的权重值,并应用ARCGIS的空间分析技术获取研究区地下水脆弱性分区,同时根据单参数敏感性分析方法对评价结果进行验证.结果表明,流域地下水以中等脆弱性和较高脆弱性为主,约占流域面积的85%.在选取的六个评价指标中,土地利用类型、地下水位埋深以及地形坡度这三个指标对流域地下水脆弱性影响最大.研究结果为拉林河流域地下水资源管理和污染防治提供理论依据.