ESTIMATING WATER BUDGET IN A REGIONAL AQUIFER USING HSPF‐MODFLOW INTEGRATED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Integrated water resources management is important, especially in watersheds where substantial interactions exist between the ground and surface water sources. This management warrants the need for reliable estimates of both an overall basin water budget and hydrologic fluctuations between ground water and surface water sources. The objectives of this study were to estimate the total water budget and to simulate the effects of the management of water in the Big Lost River Basin in Idaho. The study used the FIPR Hydrological Model (FHM), a hydrological model developed by the University of South Florida for the Florida Institute of Phosphate Research (FIPR). The FHM is an integrated model that simulates the full water budget of the surface and ground water systems. It has two public domain components: Hydrological Simulation Program ‐ FORTRAN (HSPF) and Modular Three‐Dimensional Finite‐Difference Ground Water Flow Model (MODFLOW). This study quantified the hydrologic fluxes between ground water and surface water and determined a comprehensive and accurate water budget for the Big Lost River. The study showed an annual amount of 10.44 m3/sec leaves the basin and never to return to the system. The study is useful in developing and calculating the annual water budget in the Big Lost River, and this process should be applicable to estimating water budgets in other basins.     

Improvement in HSPF's Low‐Flow Predictions by Implementation of a Power Law Groundwater Storage‐Discharge Relationship

We have enhanced the ability of a widely used watershed model, Hydrologic Simulation Program — FORTRAN (HSPF), to predict low flows by reconfiguring the algorithm that simulates groundwater discharge. During dry weather periods, flow in most streams consists primarily of base flow, that is, groundwater discharged from underlying aquifers. In this study, HSPF's groundwater storage‐discharge relationship is changed from a linear to a more general nonlinear relationship which takes the form of a power law. The nonlinear algorithm is capable of simulating streamflow recession curves that have been found in some studies to better match observed dry weather hydrographs. The altered version of HSPF is implemented in the Chesapeake Bay Program's Phase 5 Model, an HSPF‐based model that simulates nutrient and sediment loads to the Chesapeake Bay, and is tested in the upper Potomac River basin, a 29,950 km² drainage area that is part of the Bay watershed. The nonlinear relationship improved median Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiencies for log daily flows at the model's 45 calibration points. Mean absolute percent error on low‐flow days dropped in five major Potomac River tributaries by up to 12 percentage points, and in the Potomac River itself by four percentage points, where low‐flow days were defined as days when observed flows were in the lowest 5th percentile range. Percent bias on low‐flow days improved by eight percentage points in the Potomac River, from ?11 to ?3%.     

CHARACTERISTICS OF LONG‐TERM FRESHWATER TRANSPORT IN APALACHICOLA BAY1

ABSTRACT: Long‐term freshwater transport is an important factor affecting estuarine aquatic ecosystems. In this study, a primitive equation, prognostic, three‐dimensional, hydrodynamic model was applied to Apalachicola Bay, Florida, for the summer and fall seasons of 1993. In response to the river freshwater discharge, tide, and wind forces, the model simulations were used to characterize the long‐term freshwater transport processes in the bay. Analysis of spatial distributions of seasonal average salinity and currents shows that the long‐term freshwater transport was strongly affected by the forcing functions of wind and density gradient in the bay. Average freshwater input was approximately the same in the summer and fall seasons of 1993. However, in the summer season, more freshwater moved to the east direction due to the predominant wind from the west, while in the fall season more freshwater moved to the west in response to the wind primarily from the east. The water column was strongly stratified near the river mouth, and it gradually changed to well mixing near the ocean boundaries. Vertical stratification in the bay changed due to wind‐induced mixing and mass transport. Due to the density gradient effect, surface residual currents carrying fresher water were in the direction from the river toward the Gulf, while the bottom residual currents with saltier water entered the bay from the Gulf of Mexico.     

Minimum Wet‐Season Flows and Levels in Southwest Florida Rivers1

Abstract: Regulation of river flows can result in decreased stage fluctuations and alteration of inundation patterns of floodplain wetlands. However, floodplain inundation has historically not been addressed in most minimum flow determinations. Florida law requires the water management districts of the state to establish minimum flows and levels to protect water bodies from significant harm associated with water withdrawals. The Southwest Florida Water Management District utilizes a 15% reduction in habitat criterion as a threshold for defining significant harm to freshwater segments of rivers. Utilizing a multi‐parameter approach and different habitat measures for seasonal flow periods, the District has recommended minimum flow compliance standards for the Alafia, Myakka and middle Peace rivers. For the high‐flow period, the District utilized a 15% reduction in the number of days of floodplain inundation (a temporal loss) as a significant harm threshold. This approach yielded allowable flow reductions of 8% for the Alafia and Peace rivers during the high‐flow season and a 7% allowable reduction of natural flows on the Myakka River. Comparison of changes in flows associated with temporal and spatial loss thresholds indicated that flow reductions required to effect a 15% spatial loss of habitat on the Alafia, Myakka and middle Peace rivers are higher than those that would yield a 15% temporal loss. This indicates that with respect to natural flow protection, the District’s consideration of temporal reductions in habitat for establishing minimum river flows for seasonal high‐flow periods is more conservative than the use of a spatial loss criterion.     

PHYTOPLANKTON PRODUCTIVITY AND BIOMASS IN THE CHARLOTTE HARBOR ESTUARINE SYSTEM,FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Phytoplankton carbon-14 productivity at a depth of 50 percent of surface light and chlorophyll-α concentrations were measured every other month from November 1985 through September 1986 at 12 stations in the Charlotte Harbor estuarine system. Maximum productivity and chlorophyll-α concentrations occurred during summer or early autumn near the mouths of tidal rivers. Most of the variability in light-normalized productivity and chlorophyll-α could be attributed to two factors derived from Principal Component Analysis of ambient water-quality characteristics. One factor related to seasonal variability and the other to spatial variability. The seasonal factor incorporated the interaction of temperature and nutrients. The spatial factor incorporated the interaction of salinity, nutrients, and water color that resulted from the mixing of freshwater inflow and seawater. Although freshwater inflow increased the availability of nutrients in low salinity (less than 10‰) waters, the highly colored freshwater restricted light penetration and phytoplankton productivity. Maximum productivity and biomass occurred where color associated with the freshwater inflow had been diluted by seawater so that light and nutrients were both available. Concentrations of inorganic nitrogen were often at or below detection limit throughout most of the high salinity (greater than 20‰) waters of the estuary and was probably the most critical nutrient in limiting phytoplankton productivity.     

MODELING NITROGEN TRANSPORT IN THE IPSWICH RIVER BASIN,MASSACHUSETTS, USING A HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION PROGRAM IN FORTRAN (HSPF)1

ABSTRACT: Increased riverine nitrogen (N) fluxes have been strongly correlated with land use changes and are now one of the largest pollution problems in the coastal region of the United States. In the present study, the Hydrological Simulation Program‐FORTRAN (HSPF) is used to simulate transport of N in the Ipswich River basin in Massachusetts and to evaluate the effect of future land use scenarios on the water quality of the river. Model results show that under a land use change scenario constructed with restrictions from environmental protection laws, where 44 percent of the forest in the basin was converted to urban land, stream nitrate concentrations increased by about 30 percent of the present values. When an extreme land use scenario was used, and 100 percent of the forest was converted to urban land, concentrations doubled in comparison to present values. Model simulations also showed that present stream nitrate concentrations might be four times greater than they were prior to urbanization. While pervious lands with high density residential land use generated runoff with the highest N concentrations in HSPF simulations, the results suggested that denitrification in the riparian zone and wetlands coupled with the hydrology of the basin are likely to control the magnitude of nitrate loads to the aquatic system. The simulation results showed that HSPF can predict the general patterns of inorganic N concentrations in the Ipswich River and tributaries. Nevertheless, HSPF has some difficulty simulating the extreme variability of the observed data throughout the main stem and tributaries, probably because of limitations in the representation of wetlands and riparian zones in the model, where N processes such as denitrification seem to play a major role in controlling the transport of N from the terrestrial system to the river reaches.     

CAUSES OF UGHT AVI'ENUATION IN TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR,SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Vertical attenuation of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) in clear waters of central Florida theoretically can vary almost 50 percent during a sunny summer day as a result of changing solar elevation. We used a simple formula to partially adjust the attenuation coefficient in Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor for changing solar elevation of the direct beam and then used multiple regression analysis to estimate the relative contribution of different water properties or constituents to the adjusted attenuation coefficient, k_adj. Color, on an average, was responsible for 18 percent of k_adj, chlorophyll a for 21 percent, nonchiorophyll suspended matter for 55 percent, and seawater for the remaining 6 percent. In both estuaries, k_adj increased with decreasing salinity as a result of freshwater runoff adding color, suspended matter, and nutrients. Nutrients affected attenuation by stimulating phytoplankton growth and increasing concentrations of chlorophyll a. Reduced nutrient loading to upper Tampa Bay (Hilisborough Bay) in the early to mid-1980's appears to have decreased concentrations of chlorophyll a, increased water clarity, and increased seagrass recolonization. Assuming other attenuating substances remained unchanged, the decrease in the average concentration of chlorophyll a from 30 to 15 μg L_?1 would correspond to an increase in the depth of light penetration necessary for seagrass survival (>10 percent incident light) from 1.0 to 1.5 m, which, on a relatively flat sea bed (slope of 2 m/km), would increase the area potentially available for seagram recolonization by 0.25 km²/km of shoreline.     

EVALUATION OF NITRATE DATA IN THE OCKLAWAHA RIVER BASIN,FLORIDA (1953–2002)1

ABSTRACT: Nitrate levels in the Ocklawaha River Basin in north central Florida were reviewed over a 50‐year period. Data were obtained from the literature, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) STOrage and RETrieval (STORET), and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) databases. The study objective was to determine whether nitrate concentrations are increasing and if so, whether this increase is linked to land use changes. Increasing nitrate levels were seen at 5 of the 14 stations, while other stations showed no trend or a decreasing trend. Median nitrate concentrations in the Ocklawaha River increased from 0.07 mg‐N/L to 0.78 mg‐N/L at sites downstream from the Silver River. Throughout the Rodman Reservoir, median nitrate concentrations decreased from 0.48 mg‐N/L to 0.01 mg‐N/L and increased to 0.04 mg‐N/L after the Kirkpatrick Dam. Flow and concentration relationships were correlated for five stations. At four of the five stations nitrate concentrations decreased in response to increasing flow, likely the result of dilution with nitrate poor water. Changes in land use over a 20‐ year period (1970 to 1990) also were monitored. Sources of nitrate have been linked by isotopic analysis to organic and inorganic fertilizers, which appear to be related to increased urbanization and an increase in lawns that require nutrient fertilization.     

FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH A FLAT,COMPLEX FLOODPLAIN USING A ONE-DIMENSIONAL UNSTEADY FLOW COMPUTER PROGRAM1

ABSTRACT: The routing of flood waves through the Central Basin of the Passaic River in New Jersey is complex because of flat gradients and flow reversals. The one-dimensional unsteady flow program DWOPER, developed by the National Weather Service, was used to simulate flood wave movement through the Basin. A historical event was used for calibration and two synthetic events were simulated. Boundary conditions consisted of discharge hydrographs at inflow points to the study area, local flow hydrographs at interior points, and a stage discharge relation for flow over the crest of a diversion dam at the basin outlet. Manning's n values were adjusted based on stage and discharge data for the historical event; however, verification data were not available for events comparable in magnitude to the synthetic events. Aspects of the investigation reported include techniques for characterizing the flow system, model calibration, techniques for representing a tunnel diversion, and simulation results.     

HYDROLOGICAL MODELING OF THE IROQUOIS RIVER WATERSHED USING HSPF AND SWAT1

ABSTRACT: The performance of two popular watershed scale simulation models — HSPF and SWAT — were evaluated for simulating the hydrology of the 5,568 km² Iroquois River watershed in Illinois and Indiana. This large, tile drained agricultural watershed provides distinctly different conditions for model comparison in contrast to previous studies. Both models were calibrated for a nine‐year period (1987 through 1995) and verified using an independent 15‐year period (1972 through 1986) by comparing simulated and observed daily, monthly, and annual streamflow. The characteristics of simulated flows from both models are mostly similar to each other and to observed flows, particularly for the calibration results. SWAT predicts flows slightly better than HSPF for the verification period, with the primary advantage being better simulation of low flows. A noticeable difference in the models' hydrologic simulation relates to the estimation of potential evapotranspiration (PET). Comparatively low PET values provided as input to HSPF from the BASINS 3.0 database may be a factor in HSPF's overestimation of low flows. Another factor affecting baseflow simulation is the presence of tile drains in the watershed. HSPF parameters can be adjusted to indirectly account for the faster subsurface flow associated with tile drains, but there is no specific tile drainage component in HSPF as there is in SWAT. Continued comparative studies such as this, under a variety of hydrologic conditions and watershed scales, provide needed guidance to potential users in model selection and application.     

Automated Algorithms for Heuristic Base‐Flow Separation1

Abstract: The subjective nature of graphical base‐flow separation combined with the many applications of base‐flow time series derived from continuous streamflow data, motivates the development and application of automated algorithms for heuristic base‐flow separation. Base‐flow time series derived from gauged streamflow support diverse applications in engineering hydrology, catchment analysis, hydrogeologic investigations, regional low‐flow analysis, and recharge estimation. Whether based on graphical procedures for recession analysis or analytical expressions derived from fundamental equations of ground‐water flow, the variety of base‐flow separation algorithms belies the array of base‐flow definitions and interpretations that variously refer to dominant process, source, flow path, and characteristic response time. Algorithms that are invariant in their consistent – though heuristic – characterization of base‐flow response are particularly useful for interbasin comparisons of low‐flow characteristics and hydrologic regionalization. More adaptable algorithms provide application‐specific flexibility in allocating flow components like interflow to either quickflow or slowflow. Four widely used algorithms that produce consistent base‐flow time series using only gauged streamflow records are compared and contrasted with a complementary heuristic algorithm that incorporates hydrologic judgment explicitly, through manual parameterization. The utility of these inherently subjective algorithms is illustrated through a simple example of flow phase separation in a two‐component end‐member mixing model of dissolved chlorides in the Cuyahoga River.     

The Impact of Asynchronicity on Event‐Flow Estimation in Basin‐Scale Hydrologic Model Calibration1

Abstract: The calibration of basin‐scale hydrologic models consists of adjusting parameters such that simulated values closely match observed values. However, due to inevitable inaccuracies in models and model inputs, simulated response hydrographs for multiyear calibrations will not be perfectly synchronized with observed response hydrographs at the daily time step. An analytically derived formula suggests that when timing errors are significant, traditional calibration approaches may generally underestimate the total event‐flow volume. An event‐adaptive time series is developed and incorporated into the Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency objective function to diagnose the potential impact of event‐flow synchronization errors. Test sites are the 50 km² Subwatershed I of the Little River Experimental Watershed (LREWswI) in southeastern Georgia, and the 610 km² Little Washita River Experimental Watershed (LWREW) in southwestern Oklahoma, with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool used as the hydrologic model. Results suggest that simulated surface runoff generation is 55% less for LREWswI when the daily time series is used compared with when the event‐adaptive technique is used. Event‐flow generation may also be underestimated for LWREW, but to a lesser extent than it may be for LREWswI, due to a larger portion of the event flow being lateral flow.     

Generalized Nondimensional Depth‐Discharge Rating Curves Tested on Florida Streamflow1

Abstract: A discharge rating is a relationship between stage and discharge at a specific point in a river stream or lake outlet structure. Rating curves are useful for interpolating and perhaps extrapolating flow measurements and for use directly in storage routing models. However, rating data and stations are limited. A generalized nondimensional mathematical expression that describes the rating relation of depth and discharge has been developed and tested against observations from 46 stations in West‐Central Florida. Three approaches were tested in sequence to select the best fit. The proposed model is a log‐linear equation with zero intercept and a slope that fits more than 50% of the stations were analyzed. The model is normalized by the depth and discharge values at 10% exceedance from data published by the U.S. Geological Survey. For ungauged applications, Q₁₀ and d₁₀ were derived from a relationship shown to be reasonably well correlated to the watershed drainage area. The average relative error for this parameter set shows that for the flow range up to the Q₁₀ discharge, better than 30% agreement with the USGS rating data can be expected for about 50% of the stations. Further analysis is required to determine why so many stations exhibit such similar behavior and to identify the criteria or parameters governing the differences.     

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CONCEPTUALIZATION IN THE HSPF‐MODFLOW INTEGRATED MODELS1

In 1988, the Florida Institute of Phosphate Research (FIPR) funded project to develop an advanced hydrologic model for shallow water table systems. The FIPR hydrologic model (FHM) was developed to provide an improved predictive capability of the interactions of surface water and ground water using its component models, HSPF and MODFLOW. The Integrated Surface and Ground Water (ISGW) model was developed from an early version of FHM and the two models were developed relatively independently in the late 1990s. Hydrologic processes including precipitation, interception, evapotranspiration, runoff, recharge, streamflow, and base flow are explicitly accounted for in both models. Considerable review of FHM and ISGW and their applications occurred through a series of projects. One model evolved, known as the Integrated Hydrological Model IHM. This model more appropriately describes hydrologic processes, including evapotranspiration fluxes within small distributed land‐based discretization. There is a significant departure of many IHM algorithms from FHM and ISGW, especially for soil water and evapotranspiration (ET). In this paper, the ET concepts in FHM, ISGW, and IHM will be presented. The paper also identifies the advantages and data costs of the improved methods. In FHM and IHM, ground water ET algorithms of the MODFLOW ET package replace those of HSPF (ISGW used a different model for ground water ET). However, IHM builds on an improved understanding and characterization of ET partitioning between surface storages, vadose zone storage, and saturated ground water storage. The IHM considers evaporative flux from surface sources, proximity of the water table to land surface, relative moisture condition of the unsaturated zone, thickness of the capillary zone, thickness of the root zone, and relative plant cover density. The improvements provide a smooth transition to satisfy ET demand between the vadose zone and deeper saturated ground water. While the IHM approach provides a more sound representation of the actual soil profile than FHM, and has shown promise at reproducing soil moisture and water table fluctuations as well as field measured ET rates, more rigorous testing is necessary to understand the robustness and/or limitations of this methodology.     

CALIBRATION OF STORM LOADS IN THE SOUTH PRONG WATERSHED,FLORIDA, USING BASINS/HSPF1

ABSTRACT: The South Prong watershed is a major tributary system of the Sebastian River and adjacent Indian River Lagoon. Continued urbanization of the Sebastian River drainage basin and other watersheds of the Indian River Lagoon is expected to increase runoff and nonpoint source pollutant loads. The St. Johns River Water Management District developed watershed simulation models to estimate potential impacts on the ecological systems of receiving waters and to assist planners in devising strategies to prevent further degradation of water resources. In the South Prong system, a storm water sampling program was carried out to calibrate the water quality components of the watershed model for total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorous (TP), and total nitrogen (TN). During the period of May to November 1999, water quality and flow data were collected at three locations within the watershed. Two of the sampling stations were located at the downstream end of major watercourses. The third station was located at the watershed outlet. Five storm events were sampled and measured at each station. Sampling was conducted at appropriate intervals to represent the rising limb, peak, and recession limb of each storm event. The simulations were handled by HSPF (Hydrologic Simulation Program‐Fortran). Results include calibration of the hydrology and calibration of the individual storm loads. The hydrologic calibration was continuous over the period 1994 through 1999. Simulated storm runoff, storm loads, and event mean concentrations were compared with their corresponding observed values. The hydrologic calibration showed good results. The outcome of the individual storm calibrations was mixed. Overall, however, the simulated storm loads agreed reasonably well with measured loads for a majority of the storms.     

Soil organic carbon of degraded wetlands treated with freshwater in the Yellow River Delta, China

Supplying freshwater is one of the important methods to help restore degraded wetlands. Changes in soil properties and plant community biomass were evaluated by comparing sites with freshwater treatment versus reference sites following freshwater addition to wetlands of the Yellow River Delta for 7 years. The results indicated that soil organic carbon (SOC) was significantly increased in all wetland sites that were treated with freshwater compared to the reference sites. The treatment wetlands had greater total nitrogen (TN), lower pH and electrical conductivity and higher water content in the soil compared to the reference wetlands. In general, the upper soil layer (0-20 cm) had greater SOC than the lower soil layer (20-40 cm). The increase of SOC in the freshwater reintroduction wetlands was higher in the Suaeda salsa plant community (mean ± standard error) (6.89 ± 0.63 g/kg) and Phragmites communis plant community (4.11 ± 0.12 g/kg) than in the Tamarix chinensis plant community (1.40 ± 0.31 g/kg) in the upper soil layer. The differences were especially marked between the treated and reference wetlands for SOC and TN in the P. communis plant communities. The C:N ratio of the soil was significantly greater in the treated compared to the reference wetlands for the S. salsa plant community. Although the C: N ratios increased after treatment, they were all <25 suggesting that N availability was not limiting soil organic matter decomposition. Our results indicate that freshwater addition and the concomitant increase in soil moisture content enhances the accumulation of SOC in the Yellow River Delta.     

Capturing LiDAR‐Derived Hydrologic Spatial Parameters to Evaluate Playa Wetlands

The digital elevation model data from traditional stereo photogrammetric methods are inadequate in providing accurate vertical parameters to feed hydrologic models for low‐lying, extremely flat areas. High‐resolution light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data provide the robust capability of capturing small variations in low‐relief playa wetlands. The Rainwater Basin in south‐central Nebraska includes a complex of seasonally shallow playa wetlands that attract millions of migratory waterfowl every spring and fall. This research focuses on the development of a procedure with applicable protocols to produce LiDAR‐derived three‐dimensional wetland maps and to extract the critical surface parameters (i.e., watershed boundaries, flow direction, flow accumulation, and drainage lines) for playa wetlands. The topo‐hydrologic conditions of playa wetlands were evaluated at the watershed level. The results show that in the Rainwater Basin, 70.7% of the historic hydric soil footprints identified in the Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database were not functioning as topographically depressional wetlands. This finding was confirmed by a recent five‐year Annual Habit Survey showing that 69.8% of the historic hydric soil footprints did not function during the spring migratory bird seasons between 2004 and 2009. The majority of playa wetlands' topographic conditions have been substantially changed and the SSURGO data cannot fully reflect current topographic reality in the Rainwater Basin.     

SIMULATION OF FRESHWATER DISCHARGES FROM UNGAGED AREAS TO THE SEBASTIAN RIVER,FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Due to alterations in the natural drainage system over the past several decades and intensified agricultural practices, freshwater discharges to the Sebastian River, Florida, have increased substantially. As a result, salinity patterns in the Sebastian River and adjacent Indian River lagoon have been disrupted and the influx of nutrients has increased. Recently, the St. Johns River Water Management District has developed a 3‐D hydrodynamic and salinity model for the Sebastian River and adjacent Indian River to study the effects of freshwater inflows, and to set guidelines for management of future freshwater discharges. Freshwater inflows to the Sebastian River are part of the input data of the hydrodynamic model. Except for the downstream drainage areas, inflows are gaged, and the data were used for calibration of the hydrologic simulations. Collectively, the downstream ungaged areas constitute about 16 percent of the total drainage area. Because of the significant contribution to the total drainage area, reliable estimates of freshwater discharges from the ungaged areas to the Sebastian River are needed. This case study illustrates the development of a set of model parameters, reflecting the hydrologic and physiographic characteristics of the entire region. In this context region applies to the watersheds located in the coastal area along the Indian River from Titusville in the north to Vero Beach in the south. The parameter set was first tested on a number of gaged drainage basins in the region, and was then applied to the ungaged areas.     

Spatial Optimization of Six Conservation Practices Using Swat in Tile‐Drained Agricultural Watersheds

Targeting of agricultural conservation practices to the most effective locations in a watershed can promote wise use of conservation funds to protect surface waters from agricultural nonpoint source pollution. A spatial optimization procedure using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to target six widely used conservation practices, namely no‐tillage, cereal rye cover crops (CC), filter strips (FS), grassed waterways (GW), created wetlands, and restored prairie habitats, in two west‐central Indiana watersheds. These watersheds were small, fairly flat, extensively agricultural, and heavily subsurface tile‐drained. The targeting approach was also used to evaluate the model's representation of conservation practices in cost and water quality improvement, defined as export of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and sediment from cropped fields. FS, GW, and habitats were the most effective at improving water quality, while CC and wetlands made the greatest water quality improvement in lands with multiple existing conservation practices. Spatial optimization resulted in similar cost‐environmental benefit tradeoff curves for each watershed, with the greatest possible water quality improvement being a reduction in total pollutant loads by approximately 60%, with nitrogen reduced by 20‐30%, phosphorus by 70%, and sediment by 80‐90%.     

METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.