DETERMINING MINIMUM FLOWS AND LEVELS: THE FLORIDA EXPERIENCE1

ABSTRACT: Florida water resources are among the most abundant in the United States, with Florida receiving the second‐highest mean annual rainfall of all states. However, water supply issues have troubled the state due to the highly variable spatial and temporal distributions of water supply and demand, and they are aggravated by the population's preference for settling in coastal regions where freshwater resources are scarce. Historically, the competing issues of water resource development and natural systems protection have placed water management agencies and local governments at odds. In 1997, the Florida Legislature enacted several major changes to Florida water law in an attempt to improve water resource planning and protection. This paper briefly reviews the history of water management in Florida with an emphasis on decisions culminating in the 1997 legislation, which requires the development of minimum flows and levels. Also examined is the impact of the 1997 law on water management. Efforts made to comply with legislative mandates are summarized; these include, to date, establishment of minimum flows and levels on 209 water bodies and budgeting in excess of $1.4 billion for water resource development projects.     

Spatial and Temporal Patterns in Fish Assemblages Following an Artificially Extended Floodplain Inundation Event, Northern Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

Water extraction from dryland rivers is often associated with declines in the health of river and floodplain ecosystems due to reduced flooding frequency and extent of floodplain inundation. Following moderate flooding in early 2008 in the Narran River, Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, 10,423 ML of water was purchased from agricultural water users and delivered to the river to prolong inundation of its terminal lake system to improve the recruitment success of colonial waterbirds that had started breeding in response to the initial flooding. This study examined the spatial and temporal patterns of fish assemblages in river and floodplain habitats over eight months following flooding to assess the possible ecological benefits of flood extension. Although the abundances of most fish species were greater in river channel habitats, the fish assemblage used floodplain habitats when inundated. Young-of-the-year (4–12 months age) golden perch (Macquaria ambigua) and bony bream (Nematalosa erebi) were consistently sampled in floodplain sites when inundated, suggesting that the floodplain provides rearing habitat for these species. Significant differences in the abundances of fish populations between reaches upstream and downstream of a weir in the main river channel indicates that the effectiveness of the environmental water release was limited by restricted connectivity within the broader catchment. Although the seasonal timing of flood extension may have coincided with sub-optimal primary production, the use of the environmental water purchase is likely to have promoted recruitment of fish populations by providing greater access to floodplain nursery habitats, thereby improving the ability to persist during years of little or no flow.     

Simulation of Surface Water for Un‐Gauged Areas with Storage‐Attenuation Wetlands1

Abstract: A nontraditional application of the Hydrological Simulation Program – FORTRAN (HSPF) model to simulate freshwater discharge to upper Charlotte Harbor along Florida’s west coast was performed. This application was different from traditional HSPF applications in three ways. First, the domain of the model was defined based on the hydraulic characteristics of the landforms using small distributed parameter discretization. Second, broad wetland land forms, representing more than 20% of this area, were simulated as reaches with storage‐attenuation characteristics and not as pervious land segments (PERLNDs). Finally, the reach flow‐tables (F‐Tables) were configured in a unique way to be calibrated representing the uncertainty of the storage‐attenuation process. Characterizing wetlands as hydrography elements allows flow from the wetlands to be treated as a stage‐dependent flux. The study was conducted for the un‐gauged portion of the Peace and Myakka rivers in west‐central Florida. Due to low gradient tidal influences, a large portion of the basin is un‐gauged. The objective of this study was to simulate stream flow discharges and to estimate freshwater inflow from these un‐gauged areas to upper Charlotte Harbor. Two local gauging stations were located within the model domain and were used for calibration. Another gauge with a shorter period of record was used for verification. A set of global hydrologic parameters were selected and tested using the parameter optimization software (PEST) during the calibration. Model results were evaluated using PEST and well‐known statistical indices. The correlation coefficients were very high (0.899 and 0.825) for the two calibration stations. Further testing of this approach appears warranted for watersheds with significant wetlands coverage.     

A Method to Assess and Define Environmental Flow Rules for Large Jurisdictional Regions1

Snelder, Ton, Doug Booker, and Nicolas Lamouroux, 2011. A Method to Assess and Define Environmental Flow Rules for Large Jurisdictional Regions. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):828‐840. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00556.x Abstract: Hydrological rules of thumb are used across jurisdictional regions to set minimum flows and allocation limits that apply by default (i.e., when more detailed site‐scale studies have not been carried out). Uniform rules do not account for spatial variation in environmental characteristics, resulting in inconsistent consequences for the protection of ecosystems, and the reliability of water resources. We developed a method for assessing hydrological rules of thumb that describes their consequences for protection of the ecosystem (in terms of retention of physical habitat) and the reliability of the water resource. The method links regionalized flow duration curves, at‐station hydraulic geometry, and generalized physical habitat models to make assessments at many locations across a region. The method estimates, for a given set of rules, the retained physical habitat for specified taxa/life stages and the proportion of the time abstractions are restricted. We applied the method to assess a set of rules that are proposed as default minimum flows and allocation limits for New Zealand rivers. The assessment showed that the minimum flow rules had variable consequences. The method could be used to quantify the tradeoff between environmental protection and water resources availability and reliability.     

Water Quality and Land Use Changes in the Alafia and Hillsborough River Watersheds,Florida, USA1

Abstract: Spatial distribution of land use can have a substantial effect on surface and groundwater quality. Our objective was to test for trends in flow components and water quality related to changes in land use in the Alafia and Hillsborough River watersheds in Florida, USA, over the period 1974‐2007. In addition, water quality statistics were evaluated in the perspective of numeric water quality criteria and proposed reclassification of segments of the Alafia River. Trends in 10 water quality parameters and three discharge variables were evaluated using a nonparametric trend detection test. Results of land use analysis indicated substantial urbanization and loss of agricultural land in the study area. Discharge variables did not exhibit significant trends, whereas trends in the majority of water quality concentrations were negative or nonsignificant with total nitrogen and total Kjeldahl nitrogen as exceptions showing positive trends. Changes in nutrient pathways could not be clearly identified. Considering recently promulgated numeric nutrient criteria and standards for dissolved fluoride, much of the Alafia River was found to be out of compliance. While there were land use changes and changes in water quality over the study period, it was difficult to identify a direct cause‐effect relationship. Responses to regulatory efforts, such as the Clean Water Act and improvements in phosphate mining practices, may have had greater impacts on water quality than changes in land use.     

Statistical Models to Predict and Assess Spatial and Temporal Low‐Flow Variability in New England Rivers and Streams

In the northern hemisphere, summer low flows are a key attribute defining both quantity and quality of aquatic habitat. I developed one set of models for New England streams/rivers predicting July/August median flows averaged across 1985–2015 as a function of weather, slope, % imperviousness, watershed storage, glacial geology, and soils. These models performed better than most United States Geological Survey models for summer flows developed at a statewide scale. I developed a second set of models predicting interannual differences in summer flows as a function of differences in air temperature, precipitation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and lagged NAO. Use of difference equations eliminated the need for transformations and accounted for serial autocorrelations at lag 1. The models were used in sequence to estimate time series for monthly low flows and for two derived flow metrics (tenth percentile [Q10] and minimum 3‐in‐5 year average flows). The first metric is commonly used in assessing risk to low‐flow conditions over time, while the second has been correlated with increased probability of localized extinctions for brook trout. The flow metrics showed increasing trends across most of New England for 1985–2015. However, application of summer flow models with average and extreme climate projections to the Taunton River, Massachusetts, a sensitive watershed undergoing rapid development, projected that low‐flow metrics will decrease over the next 50 years.     

Determination of optimum minimum flow from a dam by using energy analysis

The proposed restoration of an abandoned hydroelectric dam on the Quinebaug River, Connecticut, is studied using energy analysis. The analysis considers the effects of alternative minimum flow releases, ranging from 0 to 34 cubic meters per second (cms), on the total energy flow of the affected system. The principal system components affected by differing minimum flows are hydroelectric power generation, aquatic habitat, and gross aquatic ecosystem productivity.The minimum flow alternative resulting in the highest annual energy flow in the affected system is considered optimal. From this purely analytical point of view, the optimum minimum flow is 0 cms, due to the short length and low productivity of the regulated reach, and the lack of floodplain interactions.Simulations of longer and more productive river reaches were conducted. For very short, unproductive reaches, in the absence of a floodplain, the contribution of aquatic community productivity to total system energy flow is negligible compared to hydroelectric generation. Optimum minimum flows are higher for longer and more productive reaches. For such cases the operation of hydroelectric dams could reduce total system energy flow because the energy supplied by hydroelectric generation may be offset by losses in aquatic productivity due to diminished riverine habitat.     

Allocation of River Flows for Restoration of Floodplain Forest Ecosystems: A Review of Approaches and Their Applicability in Europe

Floodplain forests are flood-dependent ecosystems. They rely on well-timed, periodic floods for the provision of regeneration sites and on tapered flood recession curves for the successful establishment of seedlings. These overbank flood events are described as regeneration flows. Once floodplain forest trees are established, in order to grow they also require adequate, although variable, river stage levels or maintenance flows throughout the year. Regeneration flows are often synonymous with flood flows and only occur periodically. There is a disparity between this need for varied interannual flows over the decadal time frame and the usual annual cycle of flow management currently used by most river management agencies. Maintenance flows are often closer to established minimum flows and much easier to provide by current operational practices.A number of environmental flow methodologies, developed in North America, Australia, and South Africa are described in this review. They include the needs of the floodplain environment in the management and allocation of river flows. In North America, these methodologies have been put into practice in a number of river basins specifically to restore floodplain forest ecosystems. In Australia and South Africa, a series of related holistic approaches have been developed that include the needs of floodplain ecosystems as well as in-channel ecosystems. In most European countries, restoration of floodplain forests takes place at a few localized restoration sites, more often as part of a flood-defense scheme and usually not coordinated with flow allocation decisions throughout the river basin. The potential to apply existing environmental flow methodologies to the management of European floodplain forests is discussed.     

Management of the Spring Snowmelt Recession in Regulated Systems

In an effort to restore predictable ecologically relevant spring snowmelt recession flow patterns in rivers regulated by dams, this study defined a methodology by which spring flow regimes can be modeled in regulated systems from the quantifiable characteristics of spring snowmelt recessions in unregulated rivers. An analysis of eight unregulated rivers across the Sierra Nevada mountain range in California found that unregulated systems behaved similarly with respect to seasonal spring patterns and recession limb curvature, and thus prescribed flows could be designed in a manner that mimics those predictable characteristics. Using the methodology to quantify spring recession flows in terms of a daily percent decrease in flow, a series of flow recession scenarios were created for application in an existing hydrodynamic model for the regulated Rubicon River. The modeling results showed that flow recessions with slow ramping rates similar to those observed in unregulated rivers (less than 10% per day) were likely to be protective of native aquatic species, such as the Foothill yellow‐legged frog, while flows that receded at greater rates would likely result in desiccation of egg masses and potential stranding of tadpoles and fry. Furthermore, recession rates of less than 10% per day provided the most spatially diverse hydraulic habitat in the modeled domain for an appropriate duration in spring to support all native species guilds and maximize aquatic biodiversity.     

Minimum Flows and Levels Method of the St. Johns River Water Management District,Florida, USA

The St. Johns River Water Management District (SJRWMD) has developed a minimum flows and levels (MFLs) method that has been applied to rivers, lakes, wetlands, and springs. The method is primarily focused on ecological protection to ensure systems meet or exceed minimum eco-hydrologic requirements. MFLs are not calculated from past hydrology. Information from elevation transects is typically used to determine MFLs. Multiple MFLs define a minimum hydrologic regime to ensure that high, intermediate, and low hydrologic conditions are protected. MFLs are often expressed as statistics of long-term hydrology incorporating magnitude (flow and/or level), duration (days), and return interval (years). Timing and rates of change, the two other critical hydrologic components, should be sufficiently natural. The method is an event-based, non-equilibrium approach. The method is used in a regulatory water management framework to ensure that surface and groundwater withdrawals do not cause significant harm to the water resources and ecology of the above referenced system types. MFLs are implemented with hydrologic water budget models that simulate long-term system hydrology. The method enables a priori hydrologic assessments that include the cumulative effects of water withdrawals. Additionally, the method can be used to evaluate management options for systems that may be over-allocated or for eco-hydrologic restoration projects. The method can be used outside of the SJRWMD. However, the goals, criteria, and indicators of protection used to establish MFLs are system-dependent. Development of regionally important criteria and indicators of protection may be required prior to use elsewhere.     

A Faster and Economical Approach to Floodplain Mapping Using Soil Information

Flood inundation maps play a key role in assessment and mitigation of potential flood hazards. However, owing to high costs associated with the conventional flood mapping methods, many communities in the United States lack flood inundation maps. The objective of this study is to develop and examine an economical alternative approach to floodplain mapping using widely available soil survey geographic (SSURGO) database. In this study, floodplain maps are developed for the entire state of Indiana, and some counties in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Washington states by identifying flood‐prone soil map units based on their attributes. For validation, the flood extents obtained from SSURGO database are compared with the extents from other floodplain maps such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency issued flood insurance rate maps (FIRMs), flood extents observed during past floods, and flood maps derived using digital elevation models. In general, SSURGO‐based floodplain maps (SFMs) are largely in agreement with other flood inundation maps. Specifically, the floodplain extents from SFMs cover 78‐95% area compared to FIRMs and observed flood extents. Thus, albeit with a slight loss in accuracy, the SSURGO approach offers an economical and fast alternative for floodplain mapping. In particular, it has potentially high utility in areas where no detailed flood studies have been conducted.     

RESOLUTION OF ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT ISSUES IN PERMITTING TILE PLATEAU CREEK PIPELINE1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes how a hydrologic model proved to be a valuable tool to help interested parties understand impacts to four threatened and endangered fish species in the Upper Colorado River. In 1994, the Ute Water Conservancy District initiated permitting and design of the Plateau Creek pipeline replacement. The project was considered a major Federal action and therefore subject to the National Environmental Policy Act. Under Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) entered the process to develop a Biological Opinion (BO) and determined that the project could potentially impact the endangered fish in the 15‐mile reach of the Colorado River. The Section 7 consultation was directed by a Core Committee comprised of stakeholders in the Upper Colorado River watershed. Hydrologic modeling became the evaluation tool for comparing flow reductions to USFWS target recovery flows and defining make‐up flow requirements to meet those targets. The Colorado River Recovery Implementation Program was designated to provide the make‐up flows. The USFWS released a final BO in December 1997, approving diversions through 2015. An Environmental Impact Statement for the project was completed and the Record of Decision was issued by the Bureau of Land Management in early 1998.     

FORECASTING DRY SEASON STREAMFLOW ON THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA,FLORIDA, USA1

ABSTRACT: The Peace River at Arcadia, Florida, is a municipal water supply supplement for southwestern Florida. Consequently, probabilities of encountering low flows during the dry season are of critical importance. Since the association between Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and seasonal streamflow variability in the southeastern United States is well documented, it is reasonable to generate forecasts based on this information. Here, employing historic records of minimum, mean, and maximum flows during winter (JFM) and spring (AMJ), upper and lower terciles define “above normal,”“normal,” and “below normal” levels of each variable. A probability distribution model describes the likelihood of these seasonal variables conditioned upon Pacific SSTs from the previous summer (JAS). Model calibration is based upon 40 (of 50) years of record employing stratified random sampling to ensure equal representation from each decade. The model is validated against the remaining 10 samples and the process repeated 100 times. Each conditional probability distribution yields varying probabilities of observing flow variables within defined categories. Generally, a warm (cold) Pacific is associated with higher (lower) flows. To test model skill, the forecast is constrained to be the most probable category in each calibration year, with significance tested by chi‐square frequency tables. For all variables, the tables indicate high levels of association between forecast and observed terciles and forecast skill, particularly during winter. During spring the pattern is less clear, possibly due to the variable starting date of the summer rainy season. This simple technique suggests that Pacific SSTs provide a good forecast of low flows.     

AutoRAPID: A Model for Prompt Streamflow Estimation and Flood Inundation Mapping over Regional to Continental Extents

This article couples two existing models to quickly generate flow and flood‐inundation estimates at high resolutions over large spatial extents for use in emergency response situations. Input data are gridded runoff values from a climate model, which are used by the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) model to simulate flow rates within a vector river network. Peak flows in each river reach are then supplied to the AutoRoute model, which produces raster flood inundation maps. The coupled tool (AutoRAPID) is tested for the June 2008 floods in the Midwest and the April‐June 2011 floods in the Mississippi Delta. RAPID was implemented from 2005 to 2014 for the entire Mississippi River Basin (1.2 million river reaches) in approximately 45 min. Discretizing a 230,000‐km² area in the Midwest and a 109,500‐km² area in the Mississippi Delta into thirty‐nine 1° by 1° tiles, AutoRoute simulated a high‐resolution (~10 m) flood inundation map in 20 min for each tile. The hydrographs simulated by RAPID are found to perform better in reaches without influences from unrepresented dams and without backwater effects. Flood inundation maps using the RAPID peak flows vary in accuracy with F‐statistic values between 38.1 and 90.9%. Better performance is observed in regions with more accurate peak flows from RAPID and moderate to high topographic relief.     

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Low Streamflow and Precipitation Changes in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Spatial and temporal patterns in low streamflows were investigated for 183 streamgages located in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed for the period 1939–2013. Metrics that represent different aspects of the frequency and magnitude of low streamflows were examined for trends: (1) the annual time series of seven‐day average minimum streamflow, (2) the scaled average deficit at or below the 2% mean daily streamflow value relative to a base period between 1939 and 1970, and (3) the annual number of days below the 2% threshold. Trends in these statistics showed spatial cohesion, with increasing low streamflow volume at streamgages located in the northern uplands of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and decreasing low streamflow volume at streamgages in the southern part of the watershed. For a small subset of streamgages (12%), conflicting trend patterns were observed between the seven‐day average minimum streamflow and the below‐threshold time series and these appear to be related to upstream diversions or the influence of reservoir‐influenced streamflows in their contributing watersheds. Using multivariate classification techniques, mean annual precipitation and fraction of precipitation falling as snow appear to be broad controls of increasing and decreasing low‐flow trends. Further investigation of seasonal precipitation patterns shows summer rainfall patterns, driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, as the main driver of low streamflows in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.     

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN FLOOD FREQUENCIES AND RIPARIAN PLANT COMMUNITIES IN THE UPPER KLAMATH BASIN,OREGON1

ABSTRACT: This study was conducted in the Klamath Basin of southwestern Oregon to evaluate the dependency of riparian plant communities upon infrequent flooding. Plant communities were sampled with 1 m² quadrats along established cross‐sections. Data collected for purposes of hydraulic modeling included channel and floodplain elevations (i.e., cross‐sectional profiles) and water surface elevations associated with specific discharges. The elevational distribution of hydrophytic plant communities relative to modeled return periods provided the basis for establishing relationships between these variables for nine sites. Results indicate that, on average, a peak flow frequency of 4.6 years (range of 3.1 to 7.6 years) was needed to sustain riparian plant communities at seven of nine sites. At two sites, results indicated return periods of more than 25 years were needed; these results possibly were influenced by local geomorphic conditions (a narrow steep channel in one case and an incised channel in the other). Overall, these results tend to confirm a strong dependency of riparian plant communities on overbank flows.     

Quantifying Tradeoffs Associated with Hydrologic Environmental Flow Methods

Freshwater management requires balancing and tradingoff multiple objectives, many of which may be competing. Ecological needs for freshwater are often described in terms of environmental flow recommendations (e.g., minimum flows), and there are many techniques for developing these recommendations, which range from hydrologic rules to multidisciplinary analyses supported by large teams of subject matter experts. Although hydrologic rules are well acknowledged as overly simplified, these techniques remain the state‐of‐the‐practice in many locations. This article seeks to add complexity to the application of these techniques by studying the emergent properties of hydrologic environmental flow methodologies. Two hydrologic rules are applied: minimum flow criteria and sustainability boundaries. Objectives and metrics associated with withdrawal rate and similarity to natural flow regimes are used to tradeoff economic and environmental needs, respectively, over a range of flow thresholds and value judgments. A case study of hypothetical water withdrawals on the Middle Oconee River near Athens, Georgia is applied to demonstrate these techniques. For this case study, sustainability boundaries emerge as preferable relative to both environmental and economic outcomes. Methods applied here provide a mechanism for examining the role of stakeholder values and tradeoffs in application of hydrologic rules for environmental flows.     

The Influence of Two‐Stage Ditches with Constructed Floodplains on Water Column Nutrients and Sediments in Agricultural Streams

The two‐stage ditch is a novel management practice originally implemented to increase bank stability through floodplain restoration in channelized agricultural streams. To determine the effects of two‐stage construction on sediment and nutrient loads, we monitored turbidity, and also measured total suspended solids (TSS), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (N) species, and phosphorus (P) after two‐stage ditch construction in reference and manipulated reaches of four streams. Turbidity decreased during floodplain inundation at all sites, but TSS and P, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and total phosphorus (TP) decreased only in the two‐stage ditches with longer duration of inundation. Both TSS and TP were positively correlated within individual streams, but neither were correlated with turbidity. Phosphorus was elevated in the stream to which manure was applied adjacent to the two‐stage reach, but not the reference reach, suggesting that landscape nutrient management plans could restrict nutrient transport to the stream, ultimately determining the efficacy of instream management practices. In addition, ammonium and nitrate decreased in two‐stage reaches with lower initial N concentrations. Overall, results suggest that turbidity, TSS, and TP were reduced during floodplain inundation, but the two‐stage alone may not be effective for managing high inorganic N loads.     

Differing Modes of Biotic Connectivity within Freshwater Ecosystem Mosaics

We describe a collection of aquatic and wetland habitats in an inland landscape, and their occurrence within a terrestrial matrix, as a “freshwater ecosystem mosaic” (FEM). Aquatic and wetland habitats in any FEM can vary widely, from permanently ponded lakes, to ephemerally ponded wetlands, to groundwater‐fed springs, to flowing rivers and streams. The terrestrial matrix can also vary, including in its influence on flows of energy, materials, and organisms among ecosystems. Biota occurring in a specific region are adapted to the unique opportunities and challenges presented by spatial and temporal patterns of habitat types inherent to each FEM. To persist in any given landscape, most species move to recolonize habitats and maintain mixtures of genetic materials. Species also connect habitats through time if they possess needed morphological, physiological, or behavioral traits to persist in a habitat through periods of unfavorable environmental conditions. By examining key spatial and temporal patterns underlying FEMs, and species‐specific adaptations to these patterns, a better understanding of the structural and functional connectivity of a landscape can be obtained. Fully including aquatic, wetland, and terrestrial habitats in FEMs facilitates adoption of the next generation of individual‐based models that integrate the principles of population, community, and ecosystem ecology.