民航空管安全文化建设探析

根据民航空管安全发展的客观规律,在综合考虑践行空管持续安全理念、减少空管人为差错、建设空管安全管理体系的基础上,提出要实现我国民航的持续安全,就要构建并不断完善空管安全文化建设的有效手段和途径。对空管安全文化建设的途径展开了深入探索,并提出了相关建议和措施,包括开展技能竞赛等文化娱乐活动、建立管制员心理培训与辅导机制、提升管制员新技术适应能力等。空管安全文化的建设是空管发展的坚强后盾,有效手段和措施建设的推进将成为航空运行安全的有力保障。     

Tipping point: The narrow path between automation acceptance and rejection in air traffic management

Capacity limits on the air traffic management (ATM) system are of global concern. One solution to increase the efficiency of existing ATM system is through the implementation of advanced automation. However, past experience suggests ATCOs are selective and critical about the forms of automation they are given. Therefore, this study aimed to determine if a threshold or tipping point exists, a point after which users (Air Traffic Control Operators; ATCOs) of automation are no longer willing to accept or cooperate with the automation. 500 Air Traffic Control Operators completed an on-line survey that comprised a series of demographic questions as well as two hypothetical but plausible futuristic air traffic management tools. Each tool contained seven different situations involving different levels of automation involvement ranging from fully manual operation to fully automated. Participants were asked to rate on a five point Likert scale the extent to which they agreed with the statements describing their interaction with the new tools. The results revealed a ‘tipping point’ in automation acceptance/rejection reflecting the point where the applied level of automation shifted the locus of decision-making away from the operator. The results are discussed from a theoretical and applied perspective.     

交通运输企业交通事故法律适用问题探讨

交通运输企业的交通运输事故法律适用问题引起了社会广泛争议。如不明确这个问题,对于执法主体、执法权限就不能明确,既会产生安全管理的盲区,有时候也会损害企业的相关权益。文章对《中华人民共和国安全生产法》适用范围条款进行了分析解读,阐明道路交通运输企业的交通运输安全问题既适用《安全生产法》,也适用《道路交通安全法》,二法之间不会有交叉,更不会产生冲突;同时也对道路交通事故的属性进行了分析,并探讨了交通运输企业交通事故的法律适用问题。     

基于SCPN的交通应急处置流程建模及性能分析

为了更好地利用信息技术支持应急管理,提高交通应急指挥系统救援效率,以路面塌陷事故为例,利用随机着色Petri网(SCPN)对其应急响应流程进行动态离散建模,根据同构的马尔可夫链(MC)分析模型的有效性,最后利用马尔可夫链及模糊数学的相关理论对交通应急指挥系统进行性能分析。结果表明:救援信息、交通路网动态信息、应急资源信息及时态控制信息反馈环节容易产生信息堆积,应提高综合监控的技术水平;专家决策制定出警预案、善后处理耗时较长,应作为流程优化的重点。     

Don't wait for accidents — possibilities to assess risk in traffic by applying the ‘Wiener Fahrprobe’

In Vienna during more than 10 years of research work a special traffic behaviour observation method has been developed, evaluated and applied by Risser et al. in the frame of many different traffic safety projects. Car drivers are accompanied by two observers who register not only errors in behaviour of drivers but also their communication and interaction with other road users. Malfunction of communication and interaction are judged as main sources for problems for danger in traffic. For example, if they lead to a bad traffic climate fealings of discomfort, anger and frustration will prevent cooperative actions of road users. Being able to recognize such negative or dangerous interaction patterns in time it seems to be easier to protect road users — most often the ‘unprotected’ ones — from getting involved in accidents. This contribution gives an impression about theory and practice of the observation method and shows results of different studies, where the method called ‘Wiener Fahrprobe’ has been applied. Furthermore it will show how the method and its results can be used in the frame of the European traffic (safety) research projects ‘PROMETHEUS’ and ‘DRIVE’. Till now no accident data exist in respect to new RTI systems. Therefore it seems to be important to have a sophisticated social-psychological method for testing the behaviour and interaction of road users in connection with these systems. This is a necessary prediction for deciding whether the systems are socially compatible or not.     

交通事故信息管理与时空分布分析

交通事故发生点具有明确的空间位置属性 ,其在空间和时间上的分布具有不均匀性 ,利用GIS技术能实现交通事故信息管理及其时空分布规律的研究。笔者在分析道路交通事故信息的基础上 ,采用全新的管理模式 ,利用空间数据库技术实现交通事故的空间、时间信息以及造成交通事故的人、车、路和环境等因素的一体化管理 ;通过GIS技术进行道路交通事故的时空分布分析 ,发现其在空间和时间上的分布规律 ;最后提出了交通事故管理与分析中需要进一步解决的几个问题。     

Accidents in the chemical industry: are they foreseeable?

‘Accidents recur,’ which is what Kletz [Kletz T. (1993). Lessons from disasters, how organisations have no memory and accidents recur. UK: Institution of Chemical Engineers] wrote in 1993. Indeed, despite all measures taken accidents may re-occur, but ‘disruptions’ in a process reoccur much more frequently. If a disruption occurs it may lead to an accident. If the same disruption reoccurs it is certainly suspect and should be considered as a potential precursor. In this paper, we concentrate on these disruptions and we will define them as precursors if they recur. Organizations somehow lack the ability to control such recurring disruptions that may escalate into serious accidents under certain circumstances. The presence of such precursors long before the occurrence of an accident raises doubts about how well organizations control safety.In this paper, the control mechanism inside organizations is examined, by means of several accident investigations. It will be shown that not only accidents recur, but also that disruptions recur in a period preceding the actual accident. The recurrence of these disruptions implies that the corresponding organizational control mechanism must be failing. Often, alternative circumstances prompt the escalation of such precursors and lead to actual accidents. It is demonstrated that the use of detailed accident information is of great importance for companies that are actually willing to prevent accidents through the elimination of disruptions preceding accidents.     

基于零膨胀负二项回归模型的内河水上交通人命安全分析

运用零膨胀负二项回归模型,分析水上交通事故中人员死亡失踪数量的各影响因素的影响程度。通过Pearson相关分析得到与水上交通事故中人员死亡失踪人数密切相关的因素,建立ZINB回归模型得到各因素的参数估计值。运用弹性分析方法对不同影响因素的影响程度进行评估,根据影响程度对各影响因素进行排序。将该方法应用于长江海事局辖区范围内的水上交通事故人员死亡失踪分析,取得了理想效果。     

Overcoming the blame game to learn from major accidents: A systemic analysis of an Anhydrous Ammonia leakage accident

This article aims to demonstrate the need for changing the methods with which accidents are analyzed, if we truly wish to use what we uncover from them to learn and enrich our knowledge base of organizational management. The goal is to relinquish the broadly adopted and rather simplistic paradigm that accepts the search for human error and unsafe acts performed by workers, and produces “guilt diagnostics”. Instead, we use a systemic accident analysis methodology, based on the sociotechnical principle of understanding the real operating conditions in which accidents take place. In order to demonstrate the benefits of the theoretical framework, we compare the analyses of an Anhydrous Ammonia gas leakage accident in a fish processing plant using the traditional accident analysis model based on unsafe acts and the proposed systemic approach. The results favor the latter since it tends to be more reliable and offering useful recommendations to safety management processes, thus helping to prevent accidents, especially in complex systems.     

道路交通事故预防研究体系探讨

针对目前对道路交通事故的预防研究仍停留于技术装备研发、事故起因分析、预防措施探讨的层面,缺乏从整个体系的层面对道路交通事故预防的内在机制与结构框架进行分析和讨论的现状。笔者提出,沿着事故预防体系规划、事故预防管理、事故预防实施为横向研究轴,以规划、管理、实施各阶段的理论体系、技术体系与管理实施体系为纵向探研轴,并在纵横研究的基础上对各子体系间相互关系及各体系的具体研究内容及框架结构进行了分析讨论,从而从体系框架上对道路交通事故预防的研究内容及层次结构予以搭建界定。该体系的建立为现实道路交通事故预防系统的规划、设计、管理与实施提供了参考与依据。     

从道路交通事故统计分析对比谈预防措施

笔者通过对比我国与世界上部分发达国家近十年来在道路交通事故方面的统计数据 ,并根据经济发展水平与机动车保有量的正比例关系及当前我国道路交通事故现状 ,分析得出道路交通安全事故的发生 ,与人、车辆、道路、环境信息及管理等因素具有密切关系 ,其中人 (尤其是驾驶员 )作为交通行为的主体 ,是道路交通事故诱因中一个关键性因素。由此 ,作者提出了要有效预防和减少道路交通事故的发生 ,必须将人、车、路、环境信息和管理等诸因素作为一个有机整体系统思考 ,且在未来的道路交通发展中应引入交通稳静化理念 ,以实现道路交通的安全、畅通与高效     

塔克拉玛干沙漠公路交通事故趋势预测分析

应用塔克拉玛干沙漠干线公路建成通车以来的交通事故统计数据,在分析交通事故主要指标发展变化特征和分布特征的基础上,建立了适用于沙漠公路交通事故特点的GM(1,1)预测模型,对未来几年内交通事故发展趋势进行了预测。预测结果表明,未来几年沙漠公路交通事故次数、死亡人数、受伤人数以及直接经济损失等4项指数将分别以15.9%,10%,4.5%和5%的年平均增长率快速增长。同时针对预测结果提出了相应的对策。     

我国高速公路交通事故趋势分析

对高速公路交通事故的主要原因、事故类型和发展趋势作了分析和预测 ,拟合出每百公里交通事故起数的预测公式 ,指出应加强对超速行车、通车初期和恶劣天气时的交通控制。分析结论是 :高速公路交通事故总体上呈下降趋势 ;事故的绝对数将继续增长 ,但每百公里事故起数将逐年平缓下降 ;在高速公路交通事故中 ,单方事故居多 ,超速行驶是引发事故的主要原因 ,追尾是事故的主要形态 ;在高速公路通车初期和恶劣气候条件下 ,事故呈上升趋势     

Assessment of complex sociotechnical systems – Theoretical issues concerning the use of organizational culture and organizational core task concepts

This article studies organizational assessment in complex sociotechnical systems. There is a practical need to monitor, anticipate and manage the safety and effectiveness of these systems. A failure to do so has resulted in various organizational accidents. Many theories of accidents and safety in industrial organizations are either based on a static and rational model of an organization or they are non-contextual. They are thus reactive in their search for errors and analysis of previous accidents and incidents, or they are disconnected from the actual work in the organization by their focus on general safety attitudes and values. A more proactive and predictive approach is needed, that is based on an accurate view on an organization and the demands of the work in question. This article presents and elaborates four statements: (1) the current models of safety management are largely based on either a rational or a non-contextual image of an organization, (2) complex sociotechnical systems are socially constructed and dynamic cultures, (3) in order to be able to assess complex sociotechnical systems an understanding of the organizational core task is required, and (4) effectiveness and safety depend on the cultural conceptions of the organizational core task. Finally, we will discuss the implications of the proposed concepts for safety research and development work in complex sociotechnical systems.     

云南山区公路事故多发路段安全对策措施研究

分析云南山区公路严峻的交通形势,及山区公路交通事故的特征、事故形态及影响因素,研究山区公路交通事故发生的机理。从人、车、路和环境等方面分析事故产生的原因,提出针对云南山区事故多发路段安全对策措施。分析表明,在云南山区,路况、人员安全素质、车辆性能、安全管理均处于较低水平,是重大事故多发的根本原因。提高系统安全性,实现系统功能最强,应使系统各要素相互匹配,以实现本质安全。     

交通事故现场物证点线系列直角坐标测绘定位方法

为了研究满足交通事故现场记录图的技术性、证据性要求的交通事故现场测绘方 法,针对现有现场图定位方法的不足,重点从交通事故证据审查的视角,提出物证定位 观点,分析其技术构成并构建内容体系;在此基础上,依据技术标准基本要求,运用平面 坐标定位原理,以交通事故现场物证定位思想为基础,研究开发交通事故现场点线系列 直角坐标测绘定位方法及其具体应用技术。研究表明:物证定位是能够将现场元素定位 和现场道路定位协同考虑的一种交通事故现场物证固定技术,以其基本思想与原理可以 开发交通事故现场点线系列直角坐标测绘定位方法;该方法有多种变换方法可适用不同 情况的交通事故现场测绘;应用该方法绘制的现场记录图,可以满足现场记录图技术性 及证据性的双重要求。     

Socio-cultural characteristics of high versus low risk societies regarding road traffic safety

In this study, 15 Western European countries were compared for two periods, 1989–1991, and 1997–1999. The aim was to better understand the relation between different socio-cultural factors, regulations related to traffic safety, and fatal traffic deaths. The question is also posed whether such factors are functional in the search for a safety typology aimed to characterize nations with regard to safety.Despite increased similarity regarding traffic regulation, the differences regarding fatal deaths in motor vehicle road accidents remain among the countries studied. The only studied factor that has changed its relation to motor traffic accidents during the two periods is number of cars which has lost its importance.The conclusion of the study is that type of religion and wealth of the country seem to be the most important factors. Type of religion in the country seems to have an impact on values related to safety. Being a Catholic country or not seems to be as important as being a wealthy country or not. Being a non-wealthy Catholic country leads to more traffic accidents than being a wealthy Catholic country. Being a wealthy Catholic country, however, does seem to lead to more traffic accidents than being a similar wealthy but non-Catholic country.A safety typology with three to five categories is found. The most outspoken categories are Catholic, Protestant and Mixed. The five categories should be Non-wealthy Catholic, Wealthy Catholic, Anglo-Saxon, Safe Protestant and Continental Protestant. The typology have similarities to typologies which have been developed in welfare research.     

Simulating the relative influence of tire,vehicle and driver factors on forward collision accident rates

Introduction: There is currently a strong focus within the automotive industry centered on traffic safety, with topics such as distracted driving, accident avoidance technologies, and autonomous vehicles. These papers tend to focus on the possible improvements from a single factor. However, there are many factors that are present in each accident, and it is important to understand the influence of each factor on the relative accident risk in order to identify the most effective approaches for improving driver safety. Rear-end accidents tend to be the most common accident type with approximately 1.8 M cases, or 31% of all accidents, in 2012, according to NHTSA. Of the rear-end accident scenarios, approximately 18–23% occur on wet surfaces. Method: A Monte Carlo Forward Collision Simulation models the conditions of a wet rear-end accident and estimates the relative impact of various vehicle collision parameters. The model takes distributions of these parameters as inputs, and outputs a risk of collision relative to a known reference case. The parameters that can be studied include: tire grip level, road grip level, vehicle velocity, following distances, and the presence of vehicle technologies (ABS, FCW & AEB). Distributions of some of these parameters have been improved thanks to Naturalistic Driving Study data from SHRP2. Results: This study shows that these vehicle systems have a large impact on safety and can change the amount of influence attributed to other parameters such as tire grip levels. As the use of automated vehicle systems expands, so will the influence of tire grip performance levels on collision risks. Practical Applications: It is more important than ever for consumers and auto manufacturers to consider tire performance levels. Therefore, the tire industry should continue to focus on wet grip as a key performance related to safety and should strive to continue to improve tire performance.     

CREAM失误概率预测法在驾驶舱机组判断与决策过程中的应用

CREAM强调人在生产活动中的绩效输出不是孤立的随机性行为,而是依赖于人完成任务时所处的环境或工作条件,它通过影响人的认知控制模式和其在不同认知活动中的效应,最终决定人的响应行为。在驾驶舱内,机组的绩效输出不仅仅是人的自身行为,还依赖于其完成任务时所处的情景环境,所以CREAM方法能够结合驾驶舱环境对机组的认知差错进行分析。在飞行中,驾驶舱内机组非常重要的一个环节是判断与决策过程,这一过程中包括询问、讨论、确定方案、执行、反馈五个环节。本文将通过分析这五个环节的相互关系及影响,以明确这种讨论过程是减少机组人为差错发生的一种有益方式,然后应用CREAM的预测法对这五个环节进行定量化分析,得出机组判断与决策过程的失误概率,完成对机组认知行为的客观评价,并为以后能够定量化研究驾驶舱内飞行员认知差错提供方法的借鉴。     

Air Traffic Management accident risk. Part 1: The limits of realistic modelling

The prime goal of the Air Traffic Management (ATM) system is to control accident risk. Some key questions are posed, including: What do design safety targets really mean and imply for risk modelling? In what circumstances can future accident risk really be modelled with sufficient precision? If risk cannot be estimated with precision, then how is safety to be assured with traffic growth and operational/technical changes? This paper endeavours to answer these questions by an analysis of the nature of accidents, causal factors and practical collision risk modelling. The main theme is how best to combine sound safety evidence and real-world hazard analysis in a coherent and systematic framework.