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1.
This study reports on the development and testing of a method of quantifying the uncertainties in concentration predictions by a complex photochemical grid model (PGM), using a modification of the basic Monte Carlo method (MCM). The computationally intensive aspects of applying a full MCM to hundreds of PGM inputs and model parameters is replaced by a highly restricted sampling approach that exploits the spatial persistence found in predicted concentration fields. The sampling approach to the MCM is being explored as an efficient approach to assess the uncertainty in the differences in predicted maximum ozone concentration between base case and control scenarios. The MCM is applied to several dozen surface cells, with the goal of sampling the spatial pattern of uncertainty in the PGM-predicted differences in surface ozone concentration fields between a pair of base and control scenarios. The uncertainty in model inputs and parameters is simulated using several types of stochastic models. These stochastic models are driven using Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) to generate a non-redundant ensemble of alternative model inputs. Preliminary testing of the sampled MCM approach was conducted using the UAM-IV PGM on the New York ozone attainment modeling domain for the 6–8 July 1988 ozone episode. One hundred alternative concentration estimates were generated for a base scenario and for control scenarios representing 50%, 10% and 5% reduction of NOx emissions. The upper and lower bounds of the concentration difference ensemble that define a 95% confidence range were spatially interpolated from 27 monitoring sites to the full (surface) modeling domain, using the field of zero uncertainty (ZU) concentration differences. For the 50% NOx control scenario, predicted increases in peak ozone concentration smaller than 20 ppb were generally not significant from zero. By contrast, predicted decreases in peak ozone greater than 10 ppb were usually significant. For a control scenario with a small 5% NOx reduction, predicted concentration differences and confidence intervals were much smaller, but predicted changes in peak ozone were significant at a number of sample cells.  相似文献   

2.
Transport and diffusion of dust and nonbuoyant smoke are simulated in a realistic manner by the particle model originally developed by Ohmstede and Stenmark (1980, 1981). However, many pollutants are buoyant, such as burning trash, oil, or other flammable or explosive material. The resultant buoyant cloud is taken into account by a new simple algorithm included in the particle model. For the model discussed in this paper, a particle represents a small parcel of air plus pollutant. The method uses the difference in temperature between an individual particle and the ambient atmosphere to generate a vertical acceleration. It also considers entrainment and ingestion of unheated material on, or loss of heat by contact with, the ground during initial release and subsequent ground contact. A series of computer runs suggests that the particle model with the new buoyancy algorithm realistically simulates transport and diffusion of buoyant material.  相似文献   

3.
Soil structure critically affects the hydrological behaviour of soils. In this paper, we examined the impact of areal heterogeneity of hydraulic properties of a structured soil on soil ensemble behaviour for various soil water flow processes with different top boundary conditions (redistribution and drainage plus evaporation and infiltration). Using a numerical solution of the Richards' equation in a stochastic framework, the ensemble characteristics and flow dynamics were studied for drying and wetting processes observed during a time interval of ten days when a series of relatively intense rainfall events occurred. The effects of using unimodal and bimodal interpretative models of hydraulic properties on the ensemble hydrological behaviour of the soil were illustrated by comparing predictions to mean water contents measured over time in several sites at field scale. Although the differences between unimodal and bimodal fitting are not significant in terms of goodness of fit, the differences in process predictions are considerable with the bimodal soil simulating water content measurements much better than unimodal soil. We also investigated the relative contribution of the soil variability of each parameter on the variance of the water contents obtained as the main output of the stochastic simulations. The variability of the structural parameter, weighting the two pore space fractions in the bimodal interpretative model, has the largest contribution to water content variance. The contribution of each parameter depends only partly on the coefficient of variation, much more on the sensitivity of the model to the parameters and on the flow process being observed. We observed that the contribution of the retention parameters to uncertainty increases during drainage processes; the opposite occurs with the hydraulic conductivity parameters.  相似文献   

4.
Recent progress in developing artificial neural network (ANN) metamodels has paved the way for reliable use of these models in the prediction of air pollutant concentrations in urban atmosphere. However, improvement of prediction performance, proper selection of input parameters and model architecture, and quantification of model uncertainties remain key challenges to their practical use. This study has three main objectives: to select an ensemble of input parameters for ANN metamodels consisting of meteorological variables that are predictable by conventional weather forecast models and variables that properly describe the complex nature of pollutant source conditions in a major city, to optimize the ANN models to achieve the most accurate hourly prediction for a case study (city of Tehran), and to examine a methodology to analyze uncertainties based on ANN and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS). In the current study, the ANNs were constructed to predict criteria pollutants of nitrogen oxides (NOx), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrogen monoxide (NO), ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 μm (PM10) in Tehran based on the data collected at a monitoring station in the densely populated central area of the city. The best combination of input variables was comprehensively investigated taking into account the predictability of meteorological input variables and the study of model performance, correlation coefficients, and spectral analysis. Among numerous meteorological variables, wind speed, air temperature, relative humidity and wind direction were chosen as input variables for the ANN models. The complex nature of pollutant source conditions was reflected through the use of hour of the day and month of the year as input variables and the development of different models for each day of the week. After that, ANN models were constructed and validated, and a methodology of computing prediction intervals (PI) and probability of exceeding air quality thresholds was developed by combining ANNs and MCSs based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). The results showed that proper ANN models can be used as reliable metamodels for the prediction of hourly air pollutants in urban environments. High correlations were obtained with R 2 of more than 0.82 between modeled and observed hourly pollutant levels for CO, NOx, NO2, NO, and PM10. However, predicted O3 levels were less accurate. The combined use of ANNs and MCSs seems very promising in analyzing air pollution prediction uncertainties. Replacing deterministic predictions with probabilistic PIs can enhance the reliability of ANN models and provide a means of quantifying prediction uncertainties.  相似文献   

5.
侧入式搅拌槽中多相流流场特性的数值模拟   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
运用计算流体力学(CFD)技术对不同安装偏角的侧入式搅拌反应器中单相及多相流场进行了数值模拟。模拟结果表明,典型安装偏角下,搅拌槽内流场是由内部围绕搅拌槽中心的高速环形上升流和外部沿搅拌槽壁面的低速下降流组成的大循环流。水平偏角既增加了整个搅拌槽流场的平均速度,有利于固体颗粒在整个搅拌槽内的悬浮性能,又增大了槽底高速流体区域的面积,因而改善了槽底固相沉积状况。竖直偏角增大了槽底高速流体区域的面积,并对槽底施加一定的冲刷作用,从而进一步降低了槽底固相沉积的可能性。无安装偏角时槽底固含率最多的地方主要积聚在搅拌器下方区域。搅拌器在水平偏角θ=10°,竖直偏角φ=5°时槽底大部分区域的固含率分布较均匀,仅在槽底搅拌器右侧的壁面区域存在小面积的固含率较高区域,在该安装偏角下整个搅拌槽的固液悬浮性能及防止底部固相沉积性能达到最佳。  相似文献   

6.
为了应对越来越严格的粉尘排放标准及PM2.5的去除要求,湿式电除尘器越来越广泛应用于大气污染治理行业。湿式电除尘器内的流场分布对其性能有着非常重要的影响,为了研究湿式电除尘器内流场分布,以龙净环保为某电厂设计的湿式电除尘器为例,采用FLUENT软件对湿式电除尘器烟道及内部流场进行模拟分析,并对流场进行优化,最终的优化方案达到湿式电除尘器流场的相关设计要求,为湿式电除尘器的设计提供参考。  相似文献   

7.
Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The validation of an analytical procedure based on the quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe (QuEChERS) approach is presented for...  相似文献   

8.
The pollutant dispersion behavior from the vehicular exhaust plume has a direct impact on human health, particularly to the drivers, bicyclists, motorcyclists, pedestrians, people working nearby and vehicle passengers. A two-dimensional pollutant dispersion numerical model was developed based on the joint-scalar probability density function (PDF) approach coupled with a kε turbulence model to simulate the initial dispersion process of nitrogen oxides, temperature and flow velocity distributions from a vehicular exhaust plume. A Monte Carlo algorithm was used to solve the PDF transport equations in order to obtain the dispersion distribution of nitrogen oxides concentration. The model was then validated by a series of sensitivity experimental studies in order to assess the effects of vehicular exhaust tailpipe velocities, wind speeds and chemistry on the initial dispersion of NO and NO2 mass concentrations from the vehicular exhaust plume. The results show that the mass concentrations of nitrogen oxides decrease along the centerline of the vehicular exhaust plume in the downstream distance. The dispersion process can be enhanced when the vehicular exhaust tailpipe velocity is much larger than the wind speed. The oxidation reaction of NO plays an important role when the wind speed is large and the vehicular exhaust exit velocity is small, which leads to chemical reduction of NO, and the formation and accumulation of NO2 in the exhaust plume. It is also found that the effect of vehicular exhaust-induced turbulence in the vicinity of the exhaust tailpipe exit is more dominant than the effect of wind turbulence, while the wind turbulence gradually shows a significant role for the dispersion of nitrogen oxides along with the development of exhaust plume. The range of dispersion of nitrogen oxides in the radial direction is increased along with the development of vehicular exhaust plume.  相似文献   

9.
利用数值模拟的方法,引入欧拉双流体多相流模型及标准k-s紊流模型,模拟计算内循环厌氧反应器的三相流三维流场,并通过改变污泥颗粒密度及进水流量,针对固相流速及固含率的变化情况,分析条件的改变对流场的影响。研究结果表明,应用数值模拟方法可以获得内循环厌氧反应器内的流场特征;污泥颗粒密度及进水流量的改变对于反应器内污泥颗粒的流速及分布的均匀性有较为明显的影响。模拟结果对反应器的应用及优化设计具有一定的参考价值。  相似文献   

10.
利用数值模拟的方法,引入欧拉双流体多相流模型及标准k-ε紊流模型,模拟计算内循环厌氧反应器的三相流三维流场,并通过改变污泥颗粒密度及进水流量,针对固相流速及固含率的变化情况,分析条件的改变对流场的影响。研究结果表明,应用数值模拟方法可以获得内循环厌氧反应器内的流场特征;污泥颗粒密度及进水流量的改变对于反应器内污泥颗粒的流速及分布的均匀性有较为明显的影响。模拟结果对反应器的应用及优化设计具有一定的参考价值。  相似文献   

11.
12.
针对分散填料曝气塔中多相流的流态与传氧过程,实验了布气方式以及海绵和陶粒2种填料对于体系的气含率εg、流态以及气-液传质性能的影响。在表观气速U范围(0.01~0.18 m/s)内观察到81孔布气板(Φ1 mm)体系出现3个明显相区,孔数过少(25孔),或者孔间距较小(225孔)均没有明显过渡区,在湍流区(U>0.118 m/s)3种布气板的气含率没有明显差别。海绵填料体积分数εs<25%时体系的气含率没有明显变化,35%时气含率下降且过渡区提前出现。在非均相区,海绵填料明显提高了体系的传质系数KLa。陶粒填料降低了气含率,固含率对εg的影响差别不明显,同时降低了多相流体系的KLa,且随着固含率的增加KLa降低。对比多种操作条件,单位体积空气传氧能力KLa/εg无明显差别,但在81孔布气板的过渡区KLa/εg出现一个明显的极小区间,说明过渡区传氧效率较低。在特定的实验操作条件下,KLa/εg较为稳定,这为深入理解两种气泡群体的共存体系在传氧性能方面各自的权重,提供了重要的量化参考。  相似文献   

13.
通过对圆形搅拌容器内部流场的数值模拟,从湍流速度场、湍动耗散率和湍动能3个角度来分析该容器内的二维空间流态变化,及其对混凝过程中颗粒碰撞和絮体成长的影响,针对其不足之处,提出改进模型:方形、圆形挡板、多边形、圆角和方形导流板模型,并分别比较各模型在不同转速下的内部流场的变化。结果表明,在相同截面积的条件下,圆角模型更有利于颗粒的碰撞粘结和絮体的成长。  相似文献   

14.
分层式潜流人工湿地水力学特性数值模拟与分析   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
人工湿地水力学特征对其污染物去除过程有重要影响.采用计算流体力学软件FLUENT中的多孔介质模型对分层式潜流人工湿地内部的流场进行模拟,并分析了不同进出口位置对湿地水力学行为的影响.模拟结果表明,分层式潜流人工湿地基质层内部速度分布的差异较大,水流多从进口端的左半部汇人下部砾石层以大于3.69×10-4m/s的速度出流...  相似文献   

15.
Point velocity measurements conducted by traversing a Pitot tube across the cross section of a flow conduit continue to be the standard practice for evaluating the accuracy of continuous flow-monitoring devices. Such velocity traverses were conducted in the exhaust duct of a reduced-scale analog of a stationary source, and mean flow velocity was computed using several common integration techniques. Sources of random and systematic measurement uncertainty were identified and applied in the uncertainty analysis. When applicable, the minimum requirements of the standard test methods were used to estimate measurement uncertainty due to random sources. Estimates of the systematic measurement uncertainty due to discretized measurements of the asymmetric flow field were determined by simulating point velocity traverse measurements in a flow distribution generated using computational fluid dynamics. For the evaluated flow system, estimates of relative expanded uncertainty for the mean flow velocity ranged from ±1.4% to ±9.3% and depended on the number of measurement locations and the method of integration.
Implications:Accurate flow measurements in smokestacks are critical for quantifying the levels of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil-fuel-burning power plants, the largest emitters of carbon dioxide. A systematic uncertainty analysis is necessary to evaluate the accuracy of these measurements. This study demonstrates such an analysis and its application to identify specific measurement components and procedures needing focused attention to improve the accuracy of mean flow velocity measurements in smokestacks.  相似文献   

16.
Large-eddy simulations (LES) with our recently developed inflow approach (Xie, Z.-T., Castro, I.P., 2008a. Efficient generation of inflow conditions for large-eddy simulation of street-scale flows. Flow Turbul. Combust., vol. 81(3), pp. 449–470.) have been used for flow and dispersion within a genuine city area – the DAPPLE site, located at the intersection of Marylebone Rd and Gloucester Pl in Central London. Numerical results up to second-order statistics are reported for a computational domain of 1.2 km (streamwise) × 0.8 km (lateral) × 0.2 km (in full scale), with a resolution down to approximately one meter in space and one second in time. They are in reasonable agreement with the experimental data. Such a comprehensive urban geometry is often, as here, composed of staggered, aligned, square arrays of blocks with non-uniform height and non-uniform base, street canyons and intersections. Both the integrative and local effect of flow and dispersion to these geometrical patterns were investigated. For example, it was found that the peaks of spatially averaged urms, vrms, wrms and <uw′> occurred neither at the mean height nor at the maximum height, but at the height of large and tall buildings. It was also found that the mean and fluctuating concentrations in the near-source field is highly dependent on the source location and the local geometry pattern, whereas in the far field (e.g. >0.1 km) they are not. In summary, it is demonstrated that full-scale resolution of around one meter is sufficient to yield accurate prediction of the flow and mean dispersion characteristics and to provide reasonable estimation of concentration fluctuations.  相似文献   

17.
鄢碧鹏  申锋 《环境工程学报》2012,6(7):2303-2308
通过对机械絮凝池内不同进水流量和不同桨板转速的流场分别进行数值模拟,计算得到湍动能k和湍动耗散率ε等水力参数,并结合混凝实验分析水流对絮凝效果的影响。结果表明:湍动能k和湍动耗散率ε可以作为评价絮凝是否充分的标准;机械絮凝池最佳水力停留时间为18 min;平均k值为0.00613~0.00212 m2/s2,平均ε值为0.00869~0.00199 m2/s3时,机械絮凝池装置的絮凝效果比较理想。  相似文献   

18.
The simple box model was studied in detail by applying it to a number of physical situations. The study showed that the model has several shortcomings. These deficiencies were brought out clearly by comparing model results with those of a model based on the exact mass conservation equation. The latter model, which we refer to as the slug model, was applied to an actual stagnation episode. The agreement between observed and modeled concentrations indicated that the slug model could be used to provide estimates of variables needed in emission control action during air pollution incidents.  相似文献   

19.
Selecting the proper primary variables is a critical step in efficiently modeling the highly nonlinear problem of multiphase subsurface flow in a heterogeneous porous-fractured media. Current simulation and ground modeling techniques consist of (1) spatial discretization of mass and/or heat conservation equations using finite difference or finite element methods; (2) fully implicit time discretization; (3) solving the nonlinear, discrete algebraic equations using a Newton iterative scheme. Previous modeling efforts indicate that the choice of primary variables for a Newton iteration not only impacts computational performance of a numerical code, but may also determine the feasibility of a numerical modeling study in many field applications. This paper presents an analysis and general recommendations for selecting primary variables in simulating multiphase, subsurface flow for one-active phase (Richards' equation), two-phase (gas and liquid) and three-phase (gas, water and nonaqueous phase liquid or NAPL) conditions. In many cases, a dynamic variable switching or variable substitution scheme may have to be used in order to achieve optimal numerical performance and robustness. The selection of primary variables depends in general on the sensitivity of the system of equations to the variables selected at given phase and flow conditions. We will present a series of numerical tests and large-scale field simulation examples, including modeling one (active)-phase, two-phase and three-phase flow problems in multi-dimensional, porous-fractured subsurface systems.  相似文献   

20.
Abstract

A computer model was used to take random samples from primary sample populations obtained from field trials to simulate the uncertainty of sampling for residue analysis of plant commodities and soil. The results indicate about 40%, 30% and 20% relative uncertainty when random samples of size 5, 10 and 25 are taken respectively, from a single lot. Therefore the sample size should be the same for establishing and enforcing legal limits.  相似文献   

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