Fire Management,Managed Relocation,and Land Conservation Options for Long‐Lived Obligate Seeding Plants under Global Changes in Climate,Urbanization, and Fire Regime

Most species face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions in light of these threats. We linked spatial distribution and population viability models to explore conservation interventions under projected climate change, urbanization, and changes in fire regime on a long‐lived obligate seeding plant species sensitive to high fire frequencies, a dominant plant functional type in many fire‐prone ecosystems, including the biodiversity hotspots of Mediterranean‐type ecosystems. First, we investigated the relative risk of population decline for plant populations in landscapes with and without land protection under an existing habitat conservation plan. Second, we modeled the effectiveness of relocating both seedlings and seeds from a large patch with predicted declines in habitat area to 2 unoccupied recipient patches with increasing habitat area under 2 projected climate change scenarios. Finally, we modeled 8 fire return intervals (FRIs) approximating the outcomes of different management strategies that effectively control fire frequency. Invariably, long‐lived obligate seeding populations remained viable only when FRIs were maintained at or above a minimum level. Land conservation and seedling relocation efforts lessened the impact of climate change and land‐use change on obligate seeding populations to differing degrees depending on the climate change scenario, but neither of these efforts was as generally effective as frequent translocation of seeds. While none of the modeled strategies fully compensated for the effects of land‐use and climate change, an integrative approach managing multiple threats may diminish population declines for species in complex landscapes. Conservation plans designed to mitigate the impacts of a single threat are likely to fail if additional threats are ignored. Manejo de Incendios, Reubicación Administrada y Opciones de Conservación de Suelo para Plantas de Vida Larga con Sembrado Obligado bajo los Cambios Globales en el Clima, la Urbanización y el Régimen de Incendios     

Can spatial isolation help predict dispersal-limited sites for native species restoration?

When the distribution of species is limited by propagule supply, new populations may be initiated by seed addition, but identifying suitable sites for efficiently targeted seed addition remains a major challenge for restoration. In addition to the biotic or abiotic variables typically used in species distribution models, spatial isolation from conspecifics could help predict the suitability of unoccupied sites. Site suitability might be expected to increase with spatial isolation after other factors are accounted for, since isolation increases the chance that a site is unoccupied only because of propagule limitation. For two native annual forbs in Californian grasslands, we combined experimental seeding and niche modeling to ask whether suitability of unoccupied sites could be predicted by spatial variables (either distances from, or densities of, conspecific populations), either by themselves or in combination with niche models. We also asked whether experimental tests of these predictions held up not only in the short term (one year), but also in the longer term (three years). For Lasthenia californica, seed additions were only successful relatively near existing populations. For Lupinus nanus, seeding success was low and was positively related to the number of conspecifics within 1 km. For both species, a few previously unoccupied sites remained occupied three years after seeding, but this subset was not predictable based on either spatial or niche variables. Seed addition alone may be a limited means of native forb restoration if suitable unoccupied sites are either rare or unpredictable, or if they tend to be close to where the species already occurs.     

Dispersal, competition, and shifting patterns of diversity in a degraded oak savanna

Diversity is a balance between processes that add and limit species (e.g., dispersal vs. competition), but reconciling their contributions remains a challenge. Recruit-ment-based models predict that dispersal barriers are most limiting for diversity, while competition-based models predict that dispersal matters only when competition is minimized. Testing these models is difficult because their influence varies with scale and site productivity. In a degraded oak savanna, we used plot-level (seed additions, burning) and site-level (proportions of regional functional groups found locally) analyses in areas with variable soil depth to examine how dispersal and competition influence diversity. At the plot level, added species persisted where they were formerly absent, but few established naturally despite fire-induced resource enrichment and nearby populations, revealing the importance of dispersal limitation for diversity. This result did not vary with soil depth or standing crop. Although competition could not prevent establishment in unburned plots, it significantly lowered survival, indicating that resource limitations exacerbate dispersal inefficiencies. At the site level, the concordance between regional and local diversity for native species was associated with soil depth heterogeneity, not dispersal or competition. This suggests that persistence is determined primarily by the influence of the environment on population demographics. Given that the formation of new populations is unlikely, those remaining appear to be confined to optimal habitat where they resist competitive or stochastic displacement, possibly explaining why species loss is rare despite substantial habitat loss and invasion. For exotics, there was no relationship between diversity and soil depth heterogeneity. Annuals with presumed dispersal capabilities were significantly overrepresented in all sites while perennial forbs, the largest regional functional group, were significantly underrepresented. We interpret the native-exotic discrepancies as reflecting the recent arrival of exotics (150 years ago), suggesting that local establishment occurs slowly even for species with regional prevalence. The accumulation lag may be explained by the need for founder populations to be demographically stable; otherwise persistence requires continual immigration favoring overrepresentation by dispersers. Our findings support the view that dispersal limitation restricts diversity within plant communities, but suggests that the impacts of environment on demographic performance ultimately determine the pattern and rate of community assembly.     

Experimental verification of ecological niche modeling in a heterogeneous environment

The current range of ecological habitats occupied by a species reflects a combination of the ecological tolerance of the species, dispersal limitation, and competition. Whether the current distribution of a species accurately reflects its niche has important consequences for the role of ecological niche modeling in predicting changes in species ranges as the result of biological invasions and climate change. We employed a detailed data set of species occurrence and spatial variation in biotic and abiotic attributes to model the niche of a native California annual plant, Collinsia sparsiflora. We tested the robustness of our model for both the realized and fundamental niche by planting seeds collected from four populations, representing two ecotypes, into plots that fully represented the five-dimensional niche space described by our model. The model successfully predicted which habitats allowed for C. sparsiflora persistence, but only for one of the two source ecotypes. Our results show that substantial niche divergence has occurred in our sample of four study populations, illustrating the importance of adequately sampling and describing within-species variation in niche modeling.     

Macro-habitat patch structure,environmental harshness,and Marmota flaviventris

Summary Social behavior of 15 colonies of Yellow-bellied Marmots was studied at sites differing in both elevation (plant growing season length) and patch structure (density and spacing of suitable colony sites in large blocks of habitat) from 1976 through 1978. Colonies were typically composed of family groups. In low elevation colonies, offspring dispersed at the end of the juvenile year. In all high elevation areas, offspring dispersed as yearlings, and parent-offspring and sibling interactions during the juvenile year were highly amicable. In high elevation areas in continuous habitat, dispersal by yearlings occurred with no agonistic interactions. In high elevation areas with patchy habitat, however, brief but intense periods of extremely agonistic sibling and parent-offspring interactions occurred immediately prior to dispersal of yearlings.Social behavior and dispersal are uncorrelated with elevation, plant growing season length, or available foraging time. Social interaction among relatives in marmot colonies is amicable when other suitable colony sites are located nearby; in these areas, dispersal occurs without any antagonism. Agonistic behavior occurs only in areas with a patchy distribution of suitable colony sites. At these sites, dispersal occurs only after periods of extreme antagonism. Further, those offspring who do not disperse from the colony site are the ones who dominate and initiate agonistic interactions with their siblings. The large-scale structure of the habitat influences the propensity of the individual to disperse. When the animal is reluctant to disperse because of a combination of high transit difficulty and low desirability of a new site, angonistic social interactions with relatives force dispersal.     

Spatial synchrony in coral reef fish populations and the influence of climate

We investigated spatial patterns of synchrony among coral reef fish populations and environmental variables over an eight-year period on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Our aims were to determine the spatial scale of intra- and interspecific synchrony of fluctuations in abundance of nine damselfish species (genus Pomacentrus) and assess whether environmental factors could have influenced population synchrony. All species showed intraspecific synchrony among populations on reefs separated by < or =100 km, and interspecific synchrony was also common at this scale. At greater spatial scales, only four species showed intraspecific synchrony, over distances ranging from 100-300 km to 500-800 km, and no cases of interspecific synchrony were recorded. The two mechanisms most likely to cause population synchrony are dispersal and environmental forcing through regionally correlated climate (the Moran effect). Dispersal may have influenced population synchrony over distances up to 100 km as this is the expected spatial range for ecologically significant reef fish dispersal. Environmental factors are also likely to have synchronized population fluctuations via the Moran effect for three reasons: (1) dispersal could not have caused interspecific synchrony that was common over distances < or =100 km because dispersal cannot link populations of different species, (2) variations in both sea surface temperature and wind speed were synchronized over greater spatial scales (>800 km) than fluctuations in damselfish abundance (< or =800 km) and were correlated with an index of global climate variability, the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and (3) synchronous population fluctuations of most damselfish species were correlated with ENSO; large population increases often followed ENSO events. We recorded regional variations in the strength of population synchrony that we suspect are due to spatial differences in geophysical, oceanographic, and population characteristics, which act to dilute or enhance the effects of synchronizing mechanisms. We conclude that synchrony is common among Pomacentrus populations separated by tens of kilometers but less prevalent at greater spatial scales, and that environmental variation linked to global climate is likely to be a driving force behind damselfish population synchrony at all spatial scales on the Great Barrier Reef.     

A dispersal-constrained habitat suitability model for predicting invasion of alpine vegetation

Developing tools to predict the location of new biological invasions is essential if exotic species are to be controlled before they become widespread. Currently, alpine areas in Australia are largely free of exotic plant species but face increasing pressure from invasive species due to global warming and intensified human use. To predict the potential spread of highly invasive orange hawkweed (Hieracium aurantiacum) from existing founder populations on the Bogong High Plains in southern Australia, we developed an expert-based, spatially explicit, dispersal-constrained, habitat suitability model. The model combines a habitat suitability index, developed from disturbance, site wetness, and vegetation community parameters, with a phenomenological dispersal kernel that uses wind direction and observed dispersal distances. After generating risk maps that defined the relative suitability of H. aurantiacum establishment across the study area, we intensively searched several locations to evaluate the model. The highest relative suitability for H. aurantiacum establishment was southeast from the initial infestations. Native tussock grasslands and disturbed areas had high suitability for H. aurantiacum establishment. Extensive field searches failed to detect new populations. Time-step evaluation using the location of populations known in 1998-2000, accurately assigned high relative suitability for locations where H. aurantiacum had established post-2003 (AUC [area under curve] = 0.855 +/- 0.035). This suggests our model has good predictive power and will improve the ability to detect populations and prioritize areas for ongoing monitoring.     

Managing Aquatic Species of Conservation Concern in the Face of Climate Change and Invasive Species

Abstract:  The difficult task of managing species of conservation concern is likely to become even more challenging due to the interaction of climate change and invasive species. In addition to direct effects on habitat quality, climate change will foster the expansion of invasive species into new areas and magnify the effects of invasive species already present by altering competitive dominance, increasing predation rates, and enhancing the virulence of diseases. In some cases parapatric species may expand into new habitats and have detrimental effects that are similar to those of invading non-native species. The traditional strategy of isolating imperiled species in reserves may not be adequate if habitat conditions change beyond historic ranges or in ways that favor invasive species. The consequences of climate change will require a more active management paradigm that includes implementing habitat improvements that reduce the effects of climate change and creating migration barriers that prevent an influx of invasive species. Other management actions that should be considered include providing dispersal corridors that allow species to track environmental changes, translocating species to newly suitable habitats where migration is not possible, and developing action plans for the early detection and eradication of new invasive species.     

On the relative contributions of wind vs. animals to seed dispersal of four Sierra Nevada pines

Selective pressures that influence the form of seed dispersal syndromes are poorly understood. Morphology of plant propagules is often used to infer the means of dispersal, but morphology can be misleading. Several species of pines, for example, have winged seeds adapted for wind dispersal but owe much of their establishment to scatter-hoarding animals. Here the relative importance of wind vs. animal dispersal is assessed for four species of pines of the eastern Sierra Nevada that have winged seeds but differed in seed size: lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta murrayana, 8 mg); ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa ponderosa, 56 mg); Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi, 160 mg); and sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana, 231 mg). Pre-dispersal seed mortality eliminated much of the ponderosa pine seed crop (66%), but had much less effect on Jeffrey pine (32% of seeds destroyed), lodgepole pine (29%), and sugar pine (7%). When cones opened most filled seeds were dispersed by wind. Animals removed > 99% of wind-dispersed Jeffrey and sugar pine seeds from the ground within 60 days, but animals gathered only 93% of lodgepole pine seeds and 38% of ponderosa pine seeds during the same period. Animals gathered and scatter hoarded radioactively labeled ponderosa, Jeffrey, and sugar pine seeds, making a total of 2103 caches over three years of study. Only three lodgepole pine caches were found. Caches typically contained 1-4 seeds buried 5-20 mm deep, depths suitable for seedling emergence. Although Jeffrey and sugar pine seeds are initially wind dispersed, nearly all seedlings arise from animal caches. Lodgepole pine is almost exclusively wind dispersed, with animals acting as seed predators. Animals treated ponderosa pine in an intermediate fashion. Two-phased dispersal of large, winged pine seeds appears adaptive; initial wind dispersal helps to minimize pre-dispersal seed mortality whereas scatter hoarding by animals places seeds in sites with a higher probability of seedling establishment.     

Soil vs. canopy seed storage and plant species coexistence in species-rich Australian shrublands

The fire-prone shrublands of southwestern Australia are renowned for their high plant species diversity and prominence of canopy seed storage (serotiny). We compared species richness, abundance, and life history attributes for soil and canopy seed banks in relation to extant vegetation among four sites with different substrate conditions and high species turnover (50-80%) to identify whether this unusual community-level organization of seed storage might contribute to maintenance of high species richness. Soil seed bank (SSB) densities were low to moderate (233-1435 seeds/m2) compared with densities for other Mediterranean-type vegetation and were lowest for sites with highest canopy seed bank (CSB) species richness and lowest nutrient availability, but not richness or abundance of resprouters. Annuals were infrequent in the lowest nutrient sites, but there was no evidence that small SSB size was due to low seed inputs or a trade-off between seed production/storage and seed size in response to low nutrient availability. Sorensen's similarity between SSB and extant vegetation was 26-43% but increased to 54-57% when the CSB was included, representing levels higher than reported for most other ecosystems. Resprouting species were well represented in both the SSB and CSB, and there was no evidence for lower seed production in resprouters than in non-sprouters overall. The SSB and CSB held no species in common and were characterized by markedly different seed dispersal attributes, with winged or small seeds in the CSB and seeds dispersed by ants, birds, and wind (though none with wings) in the SSB. There was no evidence of spatial differentiation in the distribution of seeds of SSB species between vegetated and open microsites that might facilitate species coexistence, but most woody non-sprouters showed aggregation at scales of 1-2 m, implying limited seed dispersal. High similarity between overall seed bank (SSB + CSB) and extant species composition, high number of resprouting species, and seed dispersal processes before (SSB) and after fire (CSB) leading to differential spatial aggregation of post-fire recruits from the two seed bank types may buffer species composition against rapid change and provide a mechanism for maintaining species coexistence at the local scale.     

Incorporating differences between genetic diversity of trees and herbaceous plants in conservation strategies

Reviews that summarize the genetic diversity of plant species in relation to their life history and ecological traits show that forest trees have more genetic diversity at population and species levels than annuals or herbaceous perennials. In addition, among-population genetic differentiation is significantly lower in trees than in most herbaceous perennials and annuals. Possible reasons for these differences between trees and herbaceous perennials and annuals have not been discussed critically. Several traits, such as high rates of outcrossing, long-distance pollen and seed dispersal, large effective population sizes (N_e), arborescent stature, low population density, longevity, overlapping generations, and occurrence in late successional communities, may make trees less sensitive to genetic bottlenecks and more resistant to habitat fragmentation or climate change. We recommend that guidelines for genetic conservation strategies be designed differently for tree species versus other types of plant species. Because most tree species fit an LH scenario (low [L] genetic differentiation and high [H] genetic diversity), tree seeds could be sourced from a few populations distributed across the species’ range. For the in situ conservation of trees, translocation is a viable option to increase N_e. In contrast, rare herbaceous understory species are frequently HL (high differentiation and low diversity) species. Under the HL scenario, seeds should be taken from many populations with high genetic diversity. In situ conservation efforts for herbaceous plants should focus on protecting habitats because the typically small populations of these species are vulnerable to the loss of genetic diversity. The robust allozyme genetic diversity databases could be used to develop conservation strategies for species lacking genetic information. As a case study of reforestation with several tree species in denuded areas on the Korean Peninsula, we recommend the selection of local genotypes as suitable sources to prevent adverse effects and to insure the successful restoration in the long term.     

Toward a Management Framework for Networks of Protected Areas in the Face of Climate Change

Abstract: Networks of sites of high importance for conservation of biological diversity are a cornerstone of current conservation strategies but are fixed in space and time. As climate change progresses, substantial shifts in species’ ranges may transform the ecological community that can be supported at a given site. Thus, some species in an existing network may not be protected in the future or may be protected only if they can move to sites that in future provide suitable conditions. We developed an approach to determine appropriate climate‐change adaptation strategies for individual sites within a network that was based on projections of future changes in the relative proportions of emigrants (species for which a site becomes climatically unsuitable), colonists (species for which a site becomes climatically suitable), and persistent species (species able to remain within a site despite the climatic change). Our approach also identifies key regions where additions to a network could enhance its future effectiveness. Using the sub‐Saharan African Important Bird Area (IBA) network as a case study, we found that appropriate conservation strategies for individual sites varied widely across sub‐Saharan Africa, and key regions where new sites could help increase network robustness varied in space and time. Although these results highlight the potential difficulties within any planning framework that seeks to address climate‐change adaptation needs, they demonstrate that such planning frameworks are necessary, if current conservation strategies are to be adapted effectively, and feasible, if applied judiciously.     

Effective conservation planning of Iberian amphibians based on a regionalization of climate-driven range shifts

Amphibians are severely affected by climate change, particularly in regions where droughts prevail and water availability is scarce. The extirpation of amphibians triggers cascading effects that disrupt the trophic structure of food webs and ecosystems. Dedicated assessments of the spatial adaptive potential of amphibian species under climate change are, therefore, essential to provide guidelines for their effective conservation. I used predictions about the location of suitable climates for 27 amphibian species in the Iberian Peninsula from a baseline period to 2080 to typify shifting species’ ranges. The time at which these range types are expected to be functionally important for the adaptation of a species was used to identify full or partial refugia; areas most likely to be the home of populations moving into new climatically suitable grounds; areas most likely to receive populations after climate adaptive dispersal; and climatically unsuitable areas near suitable areas. I implemented an area prioritization protocol for each species to obtain a cohesive set of areas that would provide maximum adaptability and where management interventions should be prioritized. A connectivity assessment pinpointed where facilitative strategies would be most effective. Each of the 27 species had distinct spatial requirements but, common to all species, a bottleneck effect was predicted by 2050 because source areas for subsequent dispersal were small in extent. Three species emerged as difficult to maintain up to 2080. The Iberian northwest was predicted to capture adaptive range for most species. My study offers analytical guidelines for managers and decision makers to undertake systematic assessments on where and when to intervene to maximize the persistence of amphibian species and the functionality of the ecosystems that depend on them.     

Planning for Climate Change: Identifying Minimum-Dispersal Corridors for the Cape Proteaceae

Abstract:  Climate change poses a challenge to the conventional approach to biodiversity conservation, which relies on fixed protected areas, because the changing climate is expected to shift the distribution of suitable areas for many species. Some species will persist only if they can colonize new areas, although in some cases their dispersal abilities may be very limited. To address this problem we devised a quantitative method for identifying multiple corridors of connectivity through shifting habitat suitabilities that seeks to minimize dispersal demands first and then the area of land required. We applied the method to Proteaceae mapped on a 1-minute grid for the western part of the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, to supplement the existing protected areas, using Worldmap software. Our goal was to represent each species in at least 35 grid cells (approximately 100 km²) at all times between 2000 and 2050 despite climate change. Although it was possible to achieve the goal at reasonable cost, caution will be needed in applying our method to reserves or other conservation investments until there is further information to support or refine the climate-change models and the species' habitat-suitability and dispersal models.     

Introduced Birds and the Fate of Hawaiian Rainforests

Abstract:  The Hawaiian Islands have lost nearly all their native seed dispersers, but have gained many frugivorous birds and fleshy-fruited plants through introductions. Introduced birds may not only aid invasions of exotic plants but also may be the sole dispersers of native plants. We assessed seed dispersal at the ecotone between native- and exotic-dominated forests and quantified bird diets, seed rain from defecated seeds, and plant distributions. Introduced birds were the primary dispersers of native seeds into exotic-dominated forests, which may have enabled six native understory plant species to become reestablished. Some native plant species are now as common in exotic forest understory as they are in native forest. Introduced birds also dispersed seeds of two exotic plants into native forest, but dispersal was localized or establishment minimal. Seed rain of bird-dispersed seeds was extensive in both forests, totaling 724 seeds of 9 native species and 2 exotics with over 85% of the seeds coming from native plants. Without suitable native dispersers, most common understory plants in Hawaiian rainforests now depend on introduced birds for dispersal, and these introduced species may actually facilitate perpetuation, and perhaps in some cases restoration, of native forests. We emphasize, however, that restoration of native forests by seed dispersal from introduced birds, as seen in this study, depends on the existence of native forests to provide a source of seeds and protection from the effects of ungulates. Our results further suggest that aggressive control of patches of non-native plants within otherwise native-dominated forests may be an important and effective conservation strategy.     

Facilitating climate‐change‐induced range shifts across continental land‐use barriers

Climate changes impose requirements for many species to shift their ranges to remain within environmentally tolerable areas, but near‐continuous regions of intense human land use stretching across continental extents diminish dispersal prospects for many species. We reviewed the impact of habitat loss and fragmentation on species’ abilities to track changing climates and existing plans to facilitate species dispersal in response to climate change through regions of intensive land uses, drawing on examples from North America and elsewhere. We identified an emerging analytical framework that accounts for variation in species' dispersal capacities relative to both the pace of climate change and habitat availability. Habitat loss and fragmentation hinder climate change tracking, particularly for specialists, by impeding both propagule dispersal and population growth. This framework can be used to identify prospective modern‐era climatic refugia, where the pace of climate change has been slower than surrounding areas, that are defined relative to individual species' needs. The framework also underscores the importance of identifying and managing dispersal pathways or corridors through semi‐continental land use barriers that can benefit many species simultaneously. These emerging strategies to facilitate range shifts must account for uncertainties around population adaptation to local environmental conditions. Accounting for uncertainties in climate change and dispersal capabilities among species and expanding biological monitoring programs within an adaptive management paradigm are vital strategies that will improve species' capacities to track rapidly shifting climatic conditions across landscapes dominated by intensive human land use.     

Height-growth response to climatic changes differs among populations of Douglas-fir: a novel analysis of historic data

Projected climate change will affect existing forests, as substantial changes are predicted to occur during their life spans. Species that have ample intraspecific genetic differentiation, such as Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), are expected to display population-specific growth responses to climate change. Using a mixed-effects modeling approach, we describe three-year height (HT) growth response to changes in climate of interior Douglas-fir populations. We incorporate climate information at the population level, yielding a model that is specific to both species and population. We use data from provenance tests from previous studies that comprised 236 populations from Idaho, Montana, and eastern Washington, USA. The most sensitive indicator of climate was the mean temperature of the coldest month. Population maximum HT and HT growth response to changes in climate were dependent on seed source climate. All populations had optimum HT growth when transferred to climates with warmer winters; those originating in sites with the warmest winters were taller across sites and had highest HT growth at transfer distances closest to zero; those from colder climates were shortest and had optimum HT growth when transferred the farthest. Although this differential response damped the height growth differences among populations, cold-climate populations still achieved their maximum growth at lower temperatures than warm-climate populations. The results highlight the relevance of understanding climate change impacts at the population level, particularly in a species with ample genetic variation among populations.     

Prediction of extinction in plants: interaction of extrinsic threats and life history traits

The global extinction of species proceeds through the erosion of local populations. Using a 60-year time series of annual sighting records of plant species, we studied the correlates of local extinction risk associated with a risk of species extinction in the Park Grass Experiment where plants received long-term exposure to nutrient enrichment, soil acidification, and reductions in habitat size. We used multivariate linear models to assess how extrinsic threats and life history traits influence extinction risk. We investigated effects of four extrinsic threats (nitrogen enrichment, productivity, acidification, and plot size) as well as 11 life history traits (month of earliest flowering, flowering duration, stress tolerance, ruderalness [plant species' ability to cope with habitat disturbance], plant height, diaspore mass, seed bank, life form, dispersal mode, apomixis [the ability for a species to reproduce asexuall through seeds], and mating system). Extinction risk was not influenced by plant family. All of the 11 life history traits except life form and all threat variables influenced extinction risk but always via interactions which typically involved one threat variable and one life history trait. We detected comparatively few significant interactions between life history traits, and the interacting traits compensated for each other. These results suggest that simple predictions about extinction risk based on species' traits alone will often fail. In contrast, understanding the interactions between extrinsic threats and life history traits will allow us to make more accurate predictions of extinctions.