Tail loss and thermoregulation in the common lizard<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Zootoca vivipara</Emphasis>

Tail autotomy in lizards is an adaptive strategy that has evolved to reduce the risk of predation. Since tail loss reduces body mass and moving ability—which in turn are expected to influence thermal balance—there is potential for a trade-off between tail autotomy and thermoregulation. To test this hypothesis, we studied a common lizard (Zootoca vivipara) population at high latitude, inhabiting a high-cost thermal environment. Z. vivipara is a small, non-territorial lizard known as a very accurate thermoregulator. We made two predictions: (1) the reduced body weight due to tail loss results in faster heating rate (a benefit), and (2) the reduction in locomotor ability after tail loss induces a shift to the use of thermally poorer microhabitats (a cost), thus decreasing the field body temperatures of active lizards. We did not find any effect of tail loss on heating rate in laboratory experiments conducted under different thermal conditions. Likewise, no significant relationship between tail condition and field body temperatures, or between tail condition and thermal microhabitat use, were detected. Thus, our results suggest that tail autotomy does not influence the accuracy of thermoregulation in small-bodied lizards.Electronic Supplementary Material  Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at     

Postautotomy tail activity in the Balearic lizard, Podarcis lilfordi

Caudal autotomy is an effective antipredator strategy widespread among lizards. The shed tail thrashes vigorously for long periods to distract the predator and facilitate the lizard's escape. This movement is maintained by energy supplied by the anaerobic conversion of glycogen into lactate. It has been suggested that lactate accumulation serves as an index for the vigor of tail thrashing. We made three predictions: (1) tail loss frequency should be higher under heavier predation regime, (2) the duration of postautotomy tail movement should be extended in populations under heavy predation pressure as an adaptation to the higher risk and the increased need for defense, and (3) as result, lactate in these tail tissues should be concentrated at higher levels. To eliminate the impact of phylogeny and environmental factors on the interpretation of our result, we focused exclusively on one species, the Balearic lizard (Podarcis lilfordi). We studied three populations under different predation pressure but sharing the same climatic conditions. We found no differences among the studied populations either in postautotomy duration of tail movement or in levels of final lactate accumulation while autotomy frequency was higher where predation pressure was more intense. Tail loss effectiveness is directly influenced by the level of predation, while secondary features of the trait appear to remain independent from the impact of environment.     

Tail autotomy affects bipedalism but not sprint performance in a cursorial Mediterranean lizard

Running is essential in all terrestrial animals mainly for finding food and mates and escaping from predators. Lizards employ running in all their everyday functions, among which defense stands out. Besides flight, tail autotomy is another very common antipredatory strategy within most lizard families. The impact of tail loss to sprint performance seems to be species dependent. In some lizard species, tail shedding reduces sprint speed, in other species, increases it, and, in a few species, speed is not affected at all. Here, we aimed to clarify the effect of tail autotomy on the sprint performance of a cursorial lizard with particular adaptations for running, such as bipedalism and spike-like protruding scales (fringes) on the toepads that allow high speed on sandy substrates. We hypothesized that individuals that performed bipedalism, and have more and larger fringes, would achieve higher sprint performance. We also anticipated that tail shedding would affect sprint speed (though we were not able to define in what way because of the unpredictable effects that tail loss has on different species). According to our results, individuals that ran bipedally were faster; limb length and fringe size had limited effects on sprint performance whereas tail autotomy affected quadrupedal running only in females. Nonetheless, tail loss significantly affected bipedalism: the ability for running on hindlimbs was completely lost in all adult individuals and in 72.3% of juveniles.     

Tail loss compromises immunity in the many-lined skink, Eutropis multifasciata

Tail autotomy incurs energetic costs, and thus, a trade-off in resource allocation may lead to compromised immunity in lizards. We tested the hypothesis that tailless lizards will favor constitutive innate immunity responses over an energetically costly inflammatory response. The influence of fasting and colorful ornamentation was also investigated. We experimentally induced tail autotomy in the lizard Eutropis multifasciata and found that inflammation was suppressed by tail loss, but not further affected by fasting; the suppressive effect of colorful ornamentation was manifested only in males, but not in females. Constitutive innate immunity was not affected by any of these factors. As expected, only costly inflammation was compromised, and a less expensive constitutive innate immunity might be favored as a competent first-line defense during energetically demanding periods. After considering conventional trade-offs among tail regeneration and reproduction, further extending these studies to incorporate disease risk and how this influences escape responses to predators and future reproduction would make worthwhile studies.     

Role of post-dispersal seed and seedling predation in establishment of dandelion (Taraxacum agg.) plants

Dandelion Taraxacum agg. (formerly Taraxacum officinale G.H. Weber ex Wiggers) is a common weed species associated with pastures, grasslands and no-tillage cropping systems throughout its native range in Europe, and more recently introduced into North America, Australasia and elsewhere. Following wind-dispersal from the parent plant, its seeds are subject to predation from a host of invertebrate predators. Similarly, seedling predation may also significantly limit dandelion recruitment. Although such post-dispersal mortality is central to our understanding of dandelion population dynamics and therefore weed control, the precise spatio-temporal role played by different putative seed and seedling predators is poorly understood. Here we studied how seed viability, and seed and seedling predation influenced dandelion recruitment at two contrasting sites in central Europe. The abundance in the field and seed and seedling consumption in the laboratory were determined for the main groups of predators—ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabiade), terrestrial isopods (Isopoda: Oniscidea) and molluscs (Gastopoda: Pulmonata). At particular sites, seed viability and seedling predation were negatively correlated while the percentage of seeds that succumbed to seed predation was similar. Combined factors accounted for the death of 98% and 87% of exposed seeds. Ground beetles (particularly Amara spp.) and terrestrial isopods (Armadillidium vulgare) were efficient and dominant seed predators, while slugs (Arion lusitanicus) and isopods were important predators of seedlings. While there was no seasonal trend in the intensity of seed predation it decreased towards autumn in parallel with the feeding activity of the declining population of A. lusitanicus. The mortality factors thus varied in their importance, largely between sites and less with the course of the season. Although seed inviability, seed and seedling predation did not stop the recruitment of dandelion seedlings they are crucial factors limiting dandelion populations. Methods of increasing the efficiency of predation of seed as a means of managing weeds are worthy of further study, particularly in areas where dandelion is an invasive species.     

Tail regeneration affects the digestive performance of a Mediterranean lizard

In caudal autotomy, lizards shed their tail to escape from an attacking predator. Since the tail serves multiple functions, caudal regeneration is of pivotal importance. However, it is a demanding procedure that requires substantial energy and nutrients. Therefore, lizards have to increase energy income to fuel the extraordinary requirements of the regenerating tail. We presumed that autotomized lizards would adjust their digestion to acquire this additional energy. To clarify the effects of tail regeneration on digestion, we compared the digestive performance before autotomy, during regeneration, and after its completion. Tail regeneration indeed increased gut passage time but did not affect digestive performance in a uniform pattern: though protein income was maximized, lipid and sugar acquisition remained stable. This divergence in proteins may be attributed to their particular role in tail reconstruction, as they are the main building blocks for tissue formation.     

Post-dispersal predation of weed seeds by small vertebrates: Interactive influences of neighbor land use and local environment

The influences of spatial scale, local conditions, and small vertebrate preferences on post-dispersal predation of weed seeds were tested in agricultural ecosystems of the Southern Pampas Region of Argentina. Seeds from different weed species were offered through exclusion experiments at different distances from the weedy field borders, inside maize (2005) and wheat (2006) stubbles with contrasting land use in the neighbor fields (annual crop fields vs. seminatural grasslands), and inside seminatural grasslands adjacent to stubbles. Canopy structure was characterized inside the wheat stubbles, and small mammals were sampled in both stubble crops and grasslands. All weed species were predated in both 2005 and 2006 trials, but predation ratios varied among weed species, partly due to their seed size, with larger ones being more preferred. While in the maize stubbles no distance or neighbor field land use effects, or interactions between the different factors were detected, in the wheat stubbles, influence of neighbor field land use on weed species predation varied according to distance from field border and the height of the stubble canopy. In wheat stubbles adjacent to annual crop fields, predation increased with canopy height at every different distance from the field borders (5 m, 30 m and 60 m). The opposite was found in wheat stubbles adjacent to seminatural grasslands, where seed predation sharply decreased with canopy height, except for the farthest distance to the border. Capture results suggest a predominance of Calomys spp. populations in crop areas (stubbles adjacent to annual crops) which contrasted with the more diverse small mammal’s community of the grasslands. Based on these data, we provide an insight into the hierarchical nature of factors affecting the predation of weed seeds and discuss some implications of land use patterns on the regulation of weed populations by small vertebrates.     

Intraspecific competition and high food availability are associated with insular gigantism in a lizard

Resource availability, competition, and predation commonly drive body size evolution. We assess the impact of high food availability and the consequent increased intraspecific competition, as expressed by tail injuries and cannibalism, on body size in Skyros wall lizards (Podarcis gaigeae). Lizard populations on islets surrounding Skyros (Aegean Sea) all have fewer predators and competitors than on Skyros but differ in the numbers of nesting seabirds. We predicted the following: (1) the presence of breeding seabirds (providing nutrients) will increase lizard population densities; (2) dense lizard populations will experience stronger intraspecific competition; and (3) such aggression, will be associated with larger average body size. We found a positive correlation between seabird and lizard densities. Cannibalism and tail injuries were considerably higher in dense populations. Increases in cannibalism and tail loss were associated with large body sizes. Adult cannibalism on juveniles may select for rapid growth, fuelled by high food abundance, setting thus the stage for the evolution of gigantism.     

基于机器学习的长江流域农田氮径流流失负荷估算

定量解析长江流域农田氮径流流失特征是实现长江及其河口氮污染有效控制的关键科学基础.基于收集的长江流域570个旱地和434个水田田间氮径流流失数据组,采用相关性分析、结构方程模型、方差分解和机器学习方法,探究了影响旱地和水田总氮径流流失强度的主要因素,建立了基于机器学习的长江流域旱地和水田总氮径流流失强度预测模型,量化了长江流域农田总氮径流流失负荷.结果表明,径流深、施氮量和土壤氮含量是影响旱地总氮径流流失强度的主要因素;径流深和施氮量是水田总氮径流流失强度的主要影响因素.与分类与回归树、多元线性回归和增强回归树方法相比,采用随机森林算法构建的长江流域旱地和水田总氮径流流失强度预测模型具有更高的精度（R²为0.65~0.94）.基于随机森林算法的预测模型估算的2013年长江流域农田总氮径流流失负荷（以N计）为0.47 Tg ·a^-1（旱地：0.25 Tg ·a^-1;水田：0.22 Tg ·a^-1）,中下游地区贡献了58%的流失负荷.模型预测5种防治情景下的长江流域农田氮流失负荷可削减2.4%~9.3%,其中减少径流量的削减效果最为显著.长江流域农田氮面源污染防治必须协同加强氮肥精准管理、减少农田径流量和提高土壤氮利用,且应将重点放在中下游地区.所发展的基于机器学习建模方法克服了氮径流流失强度与影响因素之间函数关系难以确定的问题,为估算区域或流域农田氮流失负荷提供了简便且可靠的方法.     

硅藻指数在嫩江支流甘河的适用性评估

为了筛选出适用于甘河水生态评价的硅藻指数,合理评价甘河水生态健康状况,2018年8月在嫩江支流甘河调查了19个点位的着生硅藻群落结构和水环境特征.应用21种硅藻指数对甘河水生态健康状况进行评价,采用箱体图法分析了所选硅藻指数的适用性,使用Spearman相关分析研究了硅藻指数与环境因子的相关性,最后应用多元线性回归方法分析了不同因素对硅藻指数在甘河评价正确率的影响.结果表明:①所选硅藻指数中,IBD（biological diatom index,硅藻生物指数）、EPI-D（diatom eutrophication pollution index,富营养污染硅藻指数）和IPS（specific pollution sensitivity index,特定污染敏感指数）的评价结果区分度最好,最适用于甘河水生态健康状况评价.②甘河丰水期水生态健康状况总体较好,约70%的点位水生态健康状况为健康、较好和一般,约30%的点位水生态健康状况为较差和极差,极差的点位全部位于甘河下游区域.③硅藻指数与COD_Cr的相关性对硅藻指数评价正确率有显著影响（P < 0.01）,硅藻指数与COD_Cr相关性越强,评价的正确率越高;物种覆盖度对硅藻指数评价的正确率也有影响,但不显著,各点位最小物种覆盖度高于65%时,物种覆盖度对藻指数评价的正确率影响较为明显.研究表明,硅藻指数可以有效地评价水生态健康状况,但硅藻指数与环境因子之间的相关性等因素会影响评价的正确率,因此选择合适的硅藻指数进行研究区域的水生态健康状况评价尤为重要.      

基于GAM模型的太湖叶绿素a含量与环境因子相关性分析

随着富营养化程度的加剧,太湖近30年来水华频发.为了探讨太湖西部沿岸水华暴发与环境因子的关系,于2017年4月1-18日（当地历年蓝藻暴发早期）在太湖西部沿岸进行了密集原位调查.共采集样品72个,测定了水温、溶解氧、各形态氮、磷营养盐浓度以及风速等环境指标,并利用GAM（广义相加模型）定量分析了叶绿素a含量与各环境因子间的关系.结果表明:①叶绿素a含量波动幅度较大（17.10~795.89 mg/m3）,太湖西部沿岸带有明显的蓝藻水华暴发现象.②水温、风速以及硝态氮浓度与叶绿素a含量的变化显著相关（P<0.05）,各环境因子按其对叶绿素a含量变化的解释率排序为水温>风速>硝态氮浓度.其中水温是影响叶绿素a含量最为重要的环境因子,叶绿素a含量随着水温的升高呈现明显上升趋势.风速也是影响叶绿素a含量的关键因子之一,较低的风速（<3 m/s）有利于蓝藻的漂移集聚从而形成水华,引起叶绿素a含量的升高.研究显示,GAM模型较好地解释了叶绿素a的含量变化,模型总体解释度达到70.6%,可为太湖西部沿岸蓝藻水华早期的预测预警提供一定的基础支撑.      

海南西沙试验站大气霉菌群落初步调查

目的 筛选西沙试验站大气环境优势菌种,进行西沙试验站装备敏感菌研究。方法 采用撞击法进行大气霉菌采样,用统计学法计算出不同试验场地真菌数量,结合形态学法与ITS1-5.8S-TIS2或26SrDNA D1/D2区序列分析法鉴定菌种,并用SPSS初步探讨大气真菌与环境因素的关系,分析西沙试验站装备敏感菌。结果 西沙试验站优势种为Aspergillus aculeatus、Penicillium citrinum、Pithomyces sacchar、变红镰孢霉Fusarium incarnatum、Cladosporium oxysporum和Cladosporium oryzae,影响西沙试验站大气霉菌群落结构的重要环境因素是相对湿度和风速,贮存在西沙试验站的装备容易长霉,多种材料有不同的敏感菌,尤其是涂层样件和橡胶类材料。结论 西沙试验站大气环境中存在种类繁多的霉菌。     

Deviance partitioning of host factors affecting parasitization in the European brown hare (Lepus europaeus)

Deviance partitioning can provide new insights into the ecology of host-parasite interactions. We studied the host-related factors influencing parasite prevalence, abundance, and species richness in European brown hares (Lepus europaeus) from northern Spain. We defined three groups of explanatory variables: host environment, host population, and individual factors. We hypothesised that parasite infection rates and species richness were determined by different host-related factors depending on the nature of the parasite (endo- or ectoparasite, direct or indirect life cycle). To assess the relative importance of these components, we used deviance partitioning, an innovative approach. The explained deviance (ED) was higher for parasite abundance models, followed by those of prevalence and then by species richness, suggesting that parasite abundance models may best describe the host factors influencing parasitization. Models for parasites with a direct life cycle yielded higher ED values than those for indirect life cycle ones. As a general trend, host individual factors explained the largest proportion of the ED, followed by host environmental factors and, finally, the interaction between host environmental and individual factors. Similar hierarchies were found for parasite prevalence, abundance, and species richness. Individual factors comprised the most relevant group of explanatory variables for both types of parasites. However, host environmental factors were also relevant in models for indirect life-cycle parasites. These findings are consistent with the idea of the host as the main habitat of the parasite; whereas, for indirect life-cycle parasites, transmission would be also modulated by environmental conditions. We suggest that parasitization can be used not only as an indicator of individual fitness but also as an indicator of environmental quality for the host. This research underlines the importance of monitoring parasite rates together with environmental, population, and host factors.     

Quantifying the ecosystem service of non-native weed seed predation provided by invertebrates and vertebrates in upland wheat fields converted from paddy fields

The extent of post-dispersal weed seed predation in upland wheat fields converted from paddy fields was quantified in Shizuoka Prefecture, central Japan. We investigated the temporal variability in seed predation of Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam.), a non-native winter annual weed in Japan, during summer after the seed shed in both the field interior areas and boundary strips, and estimated the total seed loss due to predation during the summer. Furthermore, the contribution of invertebrates and vertebrates to seed predation was estimated by using exclosures. The total seed loss due to predation during four months (from late June to late October) in the field interior areas and boundary strips was estimated to be 35–43% (the maximum proportion of seed predation per two weeks = 27%) and 42% (25%), respectively. The seed predators in the field interior areas were vertebrates (rodents or birds) and invertebrates (crickets and ground beetles). In contrast, seed predators in the boundary strips were mainly invertebrates (crickets and ground beetles). The results of this study suggest that predators make a substantial contribution in the depletion of post-dispersal seeds of Italian ryegrass in converted paddy fields.     

规范变换降维与误差修正结合的环境系统的一元线性回归预测

针对高维、非线性环境系统的传统预测模型存在结构复杂、收敛速度慢、求解精度低的局限,提出对环境系统预测量及其影响因子进行幂函数与对数函数相结合的规范变换.此规范变换能使变换后的各影响因子皆等效于一个线性化的规范因子,从而将多因子、非线性的预测建模简化为简单的一个"等效"规范因子的一元线性回归建模;并对预测样本的模型输出进行误差修正,以提高样本的预测精度.在规范变换的基础上,由有m个规范因子的每个建模样本生成一个规范因子的m个"等效"训练样本,n个建模样本共生成N=m×n个训练样本.应用最小二乘法,建立基于规范变换的一元线性回归预测模型.将基于规范变换的一元线性回归预测模型与相似样本误差修正法相结合,分别用于某市5个点位的SO_2浓度预测和南昌市城市降水酸度pH值预测及某河段COD_(Mn)预测,并与多种传统预测模型和方法及基于规范变换与误差修正的3种智能预测模型的预测结果进行了比较.结果表明:该预测模型用于3个实例预测的相对误差绝对值的平均值分别为1.14%、0.49%和1.45%;最大相对误差绝对值分别为2.22%、0.87%和1.85%,与基于规范变换与误差修正的3种智能预测模型的相应误差几乎没有差异,甚至还要小;均远小于多种传统预测模型和方法的相应误差,其预测精度甚至提高了一个数量级以上.基于规范变换与误差修正的一元线性回归预测模型简单、预测精度高、稳定性好,不存在"维数灾难",因而可广泛用于任意系统的预测建模.     

菜地氨挥发损失及影响因素原位研究

为获得菜地氨挥发通量和氨挥发损失率,并探讨其与环境影响因素之间的关系,于2009年1月～2009年5月,采用由风洞系统-大气气态污染物连续收集与在线分析装置和离子色谱联用组成的、时间分辨率为15min的氨挥发在线测定系统,用模拟试验方法对菜地(蔬菜上海青和生菜)施用尿素氨挥发特征进行研究.结果表明,系统氨气收集效率为(...     

Scale-dependent habitat selection in migratory frugivorous passerines

Frugivorous migrants may select fruit-rich habitats en route to attain high food rewards, yet their stopover behavior may also be shaped by other considerations, such as predation risk. During 1996–2001 we investigated autumn stopover habitat use of three Sylvia warblers (sylviids; S. hortensis, S. atricapilla and S. curruca) and three Turdidae chats (turdids; Cercotrichas galactotes, Oenanthe hispanica and Phoenicurus phoenicurus) in planted groves of the fruiting tree Pistacia atlantica in Lahav Forest, Israel, which is located at the edge of a desert. We used fecal analysis, a constant-effort trapping scheme and field observations to estimate the extent of frugivory, and bird habitat and microhabitat selection with regard to natural fruit and foliage densities. We also measured bird microhabitat selection in a set of fruit-manipulated trees. We trapped a total of 2,357 birds during the course of the study. Although sylviids exhibited higher frugivory level than turdids, both species groups exhibited a similar significantly positive correlation between bird and fruit densities at the habitat scale. However, at the microhabitat scale, sylviids selected densely foliated trees, whilst turdids were randomly distributed among trees. Our findings suggest that both species groups selected fruit-rich stopover habitats to take advantage of the high food availability before the demanding migration journey. No other mechanism except predation avoidance can explain the sylviids microhabitat selection; the migrants used foliage cover to reduce bird detectability by raptors. We conclude that en route passerines may use staging habitats in a sophisticated manner, by adopting scale-related behavior with regard to the availability of food and refuge cover.     

The evolution of Müllerian mimicry

It is now 130 years since Fritz Müller proposed an evolutionary explanation for the close similarity of co-existing unpalatable prey species, a phenomenon now known as Müllerian mimicry. Müller's hypothesis was that unpalatable species evolve a similar appearance to reduce the mortality involved in training predators to avoid them, and he backed up his arguments with a mathematical model in which predators attack a fixed number (n) of each distinct unpalatable type in a given season before avoiding them. Here, I review what has since been discovered about Müllerian mimicry and consider in particular its relationship to other forms of mimicry. Müller's specific model of associative learning involving a "fixed n" in a given season has not been supported, and several experiments now suggest that two distinct unpalatable prey types may be just as easy to learn to avoid as one. Nevertheless, Müller's general insight that novel unpalatable forms have higher mortality than common unpalatable forms as a result of predation has been well supported by field experiments. From its inception, there has been a heated debate over the nature of the relationship between Müllerian co-mimics that differ in their level of defence. There is now a growing awareness that this relationship can be mediated by many factors, including synergistic effects between co-mimics that differ in their mode of defence, rates of generalisation among warning signals and concomitant changes in prey density as mimicry evolves. I highlight areas for future enquiry, including the possibility of Müllerian mimicry systems based on profitability rather than unprofitability and the co-evolution of defence.     

Habitat segregation mediates predation by the benthic fish <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cottus gobio</Emphasis> on the exotic amphipod species <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gammarus roeseli</Emphasis>

Predation is often considered as one of the most important biotic factor determining the success of exotic species. The freshwater amphipod Gammarus roeseli has widely colonized Western Europe, where it is frequently found in sympatry with the native species (Gammarus pulex). Previous laboratory experiments revealed that G. roeseli may have an advantage over G. pulex through differential predation by native fish (brown trout). Morphological anti-predator defences (spines) were found responsible for lower rates of predation on the invasive G. roeseli. Here, using both field surveys and laboratory experiments, we tested if a differential of predation exists with other fish predators naturally encountered by gammarids. The main predators present in our field site were nocturnal benthic feeders (mainly bullheads, Cottus gobio). Fish diet analysis showed that, compared to its global availability in the river, G. roeseli was less consumed than G. pulex. In the field, however, G. roeseli was found mainly in the aquatic vegetation whereas G. pulex was found in all habitat types. Laboratory experiments in microcosms revealed that G. roeseli was less prone to predation by C. gobio only when vegetation was present. Depending on the type of predator, the differential of predation could therefore be mediated by antipredator behaviour, and a better usage of refuges, rather than by morphological defences.     

我国流域铜的长期水质基准预测模型研究——MLR vs. BLM

铜在实际水环境中的毒性效应受多种环境理化要素影响,识别典型环境因子进而建立生物有效性模型是获得“原位”水质基准的基础. 国际上广泛应用的生物配位体模型(biotic ligand model, BLM)在实际使用过程中有局限性. 本研究旨在BLM模型的基础上,探究更适用于铜的“原位”毒性校正方法,以更少的环境因子降低环境监管过程的经济和技术成本,为“因地制宜”确定金属水质基准提供理论依据和技术支撑. 同时基于4门22种水生生物的慢性毒性数据,以影响铜生物有效性的关键水化学参数为自变量,即硬度(hardness,H)、pH和溶解有机碳(dissolved organic carbon,DOC),采用带有交互项的3种逐步多元线性回归(Multiple Linear Regression,MLR)方法建模,从9个模型中筛选出最佳预测模型〔R2=0.553 1,F=61.23,P<0.000 1,AIC(赤池信息准则,Akaike information criterion)=0.9457,BIC(贝叶斯信息准则,Bayesian information criterion)=23.43〕. 并参考我国典型流域水环境特征,正交设计216组水环境条件,对所有物种的慢性毒性值(chronic toxicity value,CTV)进行模型校正. 结果表明:①以预测准确率(RF_x,2.0)为评价指标,MLR模型较BLM模型提升了20%,MLR模型残差分析的等级评分也优于BLM模型. ②确定最佳模型为Sigmoidal-Weibull函数(R2=0.986 1,F=1 609,P<0.001),构建的三环境因子耦合的基准预测模型准确度高(R2=0.990 2,RMSE=0.041 06,F=7 238,P<0.001). ③主要环境因子(H、pH和DOC)只使得SSD曲线水平移动〔与中心(X_c)有关〕,曲线形状无影响〔振幅(A)、指数(d)和协同系数(k)恒定〕. ④在模型的适用范围内,我国流域水体中铜的长期水质基准为4.619~53.75 μg/L. 研究显示,基于BLM模型框架的新MLR模型,具有高稳健性和准确性,有助于体现流域水生态管理的区域性差异.