A reliability index for models

Since the prediction of environmental changes depends heavily on mathematical models, environmental planners have a definite need for a general test that can be easily applied to determine the reliability of a model or to choose between available models. In this paper a ‘reliability index’ for a model is defined. This index is a number k ? 1 which is determined from a set x₁,x₂,…,x_n of model predictions and a corresponding set y₁,y₂,…,y_n of observations. One interpretation of the index k is that the model predictions agree with observations, in some sense, within a factor of k. The index k is defined using an intuitive, geometric approach and is justified through agreement with another index developed using statistical techniques. Examples are given for a model which predicts the atmospheric movement of radon-222 originating from a concentrated source of radium-226, such as a uranium tailings pile.     

Offensive and defensive sperm competition roles in the dung beetle Onthophagus taurus (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae)

Sperm competition is predicted to generate opposing selection pressures on males. On one hand, selection should favour ‘defensive’ adaptations that protect a male’s ejaculate from displacement, while, on the other hand, selection should favour ‘offensive’ adaptations that overcome paternity assurance mechanisms of rivals. Here, we use the sterile male technique to assess sperm precedence when a male dung beetle Onthophagus taurus mates in both a defensive (first male) and an offensive (second male) role. Significant variation in a male’s sperm precedence (both P ₁ and P ₂) was detected, and an individual’s defensive (P ₁) and offensive (P ₂) abilities were positively correlated. Thus, it appears that sexual selection simultaneously selects for ‘defensive’ and ‘offensive’ adaptations in O. taurus. We discuss a variety of male traits in O. taurus that potentially contribute to a male’s ability to be successful when mating in an ‘offensive’ and a ‘defensive’ role.     

Poecilogony in an estuarine opisthobranch: planktotrophy, lecithotrophy, and mixed clutches in a population of the ascoglossan Alderia modesta

A San Diego population of the opisthobranch mollusc Alderia modesta (Lovén, 1844) exhibits poecilogony, the presence of two development modes within a single species. In spring, half of the adults spawned masses containing ∼300 eggs with a mean diameter of 68 μm. After 3 d, these egg masses hatched planktotrophic veligers with a maximum shell dimension of 116 μm. The remaining adults spawned masses containing ∼30 eggs with a mean diameter of 105 μm. These egg masses hatched after 5 to 6 d, releasing lecithotrophic larvae with a maximum shell dimension of 186 μm. About 1% of field-collected adults produced mixed clutches containing a continuum of larval sizes, spanning the size extremes of planktotrophy and lecithotrophy and hatching larvae with a mean maximum shell dimension of 152 μm. Adults producing planktotrophic and lecithotrophic larvae were interfertile, and no hybrid breakdown was observed through the F3 generation. When starved, adults which previously produced only lecithotrophic larvae switched to producing planktotrophic larvae or mixed clutches with both planktotrophic and lecithotrophic larvae. Sequence-polymorphisms from a portion of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I gene support the conclusion that the two reproductive morphs represent a single species. Most of the lecithotrophic larvae and a small percentage of the larvae from mixed clutches were metamorphically competent within 3 d of hatching. A. modesta is the only molluscan species as yet known to have both planktotrophic and pelagic lecithotrophic development within a single natural population. Received: 14 August 1997 / Accepted: 11 April 1998     

Development of a hydrothermal time seed germination model which uses the Weibull distribution to describe base water potential

Seed germination has been modelled extensively using hydrothermal time (HTT) models, that predict time to germination as a function of the extent to which seedbed temperature, T, and water potential, Ψ, exceed the base temperature, T_b, and base water potential, Ψ_b, of each seed percentile, g. Within a seed population the variation in time to germination arises from variation in Ψ_b(g) modelled by a normal distribution. We tested the assumption of normality in the distribution of Ψ_b(g) by germinating seed of two unrelated species with non-dormant seed (Buddleja davidii (Franch.) and Pinus radiata D. Don) across a range of constant Ψ at sub-optimal T. When incorporated into a HTT model the Weibull distribution more accurately described both the right skewed distribution of Ψ_b(g) and germination time course over sub-optimal T than the HTT based on the normal distribution, for both species. Given the flexibility of the Weibull distribution this model not only provides a useful method for predicting germination but also a means of determining the distribution of Ψ_b(g).     

Appropriate pCO2 treatments in ocean acidification experiments

Experiments in which organisms are reared in treatments simulating current and future pCO₂ concentrations are critical for ocean acidification (OA) research. The majority of OA exposure experiments use average atmospheric pCO₂ levels as a baseline treatment. We conducted an ecoregion-scale analysis of global carbon chemistry datasets. For many locales, atmospheric pCO₂ levels are not an appropriate characterization of marine carbon chemistry. We argue that atmospheric pCO₂ should be disregarded when setting baseline treatment conditions and experimental design should rely on measurements of carbon chemistry in a study subject’s habitat. As carbon chemistry conditions vary with space and time, we suggest using a range of pCO₂ values as a control rather than a single value. We illustrate this issue with data on the habitat of Euphausia pacifica, which currently lives in waters with a pCO₂ around 900 μatm, a concentration much higher than the current global atmospheric mean.     

Present-day genetic composition suggests contrasting demographic histories of two dominant chaetognaths of the North-East Atlantic, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Sagitta elegans</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">S. setosa</Emphasis>

Sagitta elegans and S. setosa are the two dominant chaetognaths in the North-East (NE) Atlantic. They are closely related and have a similar ecology and life history, but differ in distributional ranges. Sagitta setosa is a typical neritic species occurring exclusively above shelf regions, whereas S. elegans is a more oceanic species with a widespread distribution. We hypothesised that neritic species, because of smaller and more fragmented populations, would have been more vulnerable to population bottlenecks resulting from range contractions during Pleistocene glaciations than oceanic species. To test this hypothesis we compared mitochondrial Cytochrome Oxidase II DNA sequences of S. elegans and S. setosa from sampling locations across the NE Atlantic. Both species displayed very high levels of genetic diversity with unique haplotypes for every sequenced individual and an approximately three times higher level of nucleotide diversity in S. elegans (0.061) compared to S. setosa (0.021). Sagitta setosa mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes produced a star-like phylogeny and a uni-modal mismatch distribution indicative of a bottleneck followed by population expansion. In contrast, S. elegans had a deeper mtDNA phylogeny and a multi-modal mismatch distribution as would be expected from a more stable population. Neutrality tests indicated that assumptions of the standard neutral model were violated for both species and results from the McDonald-Kreitman test suggested that selection played a role in the evolution of their mitochondrial DNA. Congruent with these results, both species had much smaller effective population sizes estimated from genetic data when compared to census population sizes estimated from abundance data, with a factor of ~10⁸–10⁹ difference. Assuming that selective effects are comparable for the two species, we conclude that the difference in genetic signature can only be explained by contrasting demographic histories. Our data are consistent with the hypothesis that in the NE Atlantic, the neritic S. setosa has been more severely affected by population bottlenecks resulting from Pleistocene range shifts than the more oceanic S. elegans.     

Models for the physiological effects of short O3 exposures on plants

Some published effects of ozone on plant photosynthesis and evaporation are detailed, and attempts were made to develop explanatory models of increasing complexity. Stomatal regulation, which keeps the CO₂ concentration inside the lead constant, is assumed. The O₃ concentration inside the leaf is assumed to be neglible, so O₃ uptake, CO₂ uptake and stomatal conductance must be proportional. The suppression of photosynthesis is assumed to be proportional to the integrated effective O₃ uptake. For a first model, a differential equation is derived from these assumptions and a simple analytical solution is found. A second model includes a threshold O₃ flux. The repair process is discussed and three models are investigated with a constant repair rate, a repair rate dependent on the stage of injury, and with a repair rate dependent on the photosynthetic rate. A comparison of the analytical solutions of the appropriate differential equations with literature data shows that the model with repair dependent on photosytheesis is the most successful one, but a constant repair rate also gives a fair approximation. The model with repair dependent on photosynthesis implies the existence of a threshold level for the suppression of photosynthesis which separates reversible and irreversible O₃ effects. With the assumption of an inhomogeneous leaf a model to predict visible leaf injury is derived. The possible existence of a maximum leaf injury index for one exposure concentration is explained from the properties of the models. The restrictions and possible extensions of the models are discussed. The concept of a threshold O₃ flux and of a critical suppression of photosynthesis are shown to give possible explanations of antagonistic and synergistic effects of O₃, SO₂ and NO₂.     

Population dynamics and reproductive cycle of Pholoë minuta (Polychaeta: Sigalionidae) in Galway Bay

Pholoë minuta (Fabricius) is a prominent member of the Amphiura filiformis (O.F. Müller) subcommunity in Galway Bay, Ireland. The aim of the present investigation was to study the population dynamics and reproductive cycle of P. minuta in this area. Monthly sampling over a 2 yr period (November 1978–October 1980), at a permanent station (18 m) with a fine sand substrate, revealed a mean density of 96 individuals per 0.1 m². The width of the fifth elytron was correlated with total body length and was used as a basis for analysing population structure. Four distinct year classes were evident and estimates of recruitment levels and growth rates were calculated. P. minuta is polytelic and reproduces for the first time when approaching 3 yr of age. Spawning occurred in March—April and appeared to be associated with a seasonal low in bottom-water temperature.     

Spatial memory, habitat auto-facilitation and the emergence of fractal home range patterns

Animals interact with their habitat in a manner which involves both negative and positive feedback mechanisms. We apply a specific modeling approach, “multi-scaled random walk”, for the scenario where a spatially explicit positive feedback process emerges from a combination of a spatial memory-dependent tendency to return to familiar patches and a consequently objective or subjective improvement of the quality of these patches (habitat auto-facilitation). In addition to the potential for local resource improvement from physically altering a patch, primarily known from the ecology of grazing ungulates, auto-facilitation from site fidelity may also embed more subtle subjective, individual-specific advantages from patch familiarity. Under the condition of resource superabundance, fitness gain from intra-home range patch fidelity creates a self-reinforcing use of the preferred patches on expense of a broader foraging in a priori equally favorable patches. Through this process, our simulations show that a spatially fractal dispersion of accumulated locations of the individual will emerge under the given model assumptions. Based on a conjecture that intra-home range patch fidelity depends on spatial memory we apply the multi-scaled random walk model to construct a spatially explicit habitat suitability parameter H_ij, which quantifies the dispersion of the generally most constraining resource from the individual's perspective. An intra-home range set of observed H-scores, H_obs, can then be estimated from a simple 2-scale calculation that is derived from the local dispersion of fixes. We show how the spatially explicit habitat utilization index H_obs not necessarily correlates positively with the local density fluctuations of fixes. The H-index solves some well-known problems from using the pattern of local densities of telemetry fixes - the classic utilization distribution - as a proxy variable for relative intra-home range habitat quality and resource selection. A pilot study on a set of telemetry fixes collected from a herd of free-ranging domestic sheep with overlapping summer home ranges illustrates how the H-index may be estimated and interpreted as a first-level approach towards a more extensive analysis of intra-home range habitat resource availability and patch preferences. Spatial memory in combination with site fidelity requires a modeling framework that explicitly describes the property of positive feedback mechanism under auto-facilitation in a spatio-temporally explicit manner.     

A stochastic forest fire growth model

We consider a stochastic fire growth model, with the aim of predicting the behaviour of large forest fires. Such a model can describe not only average growth, but also the variability of the growth. Implementing such a model in a computing environment allows one to obtain probability contour plots, burn size distributions, and distributions of time to specified events. Such a model also allows the incorporation of a stochastic spotting mechanism.

The similarity solution for turbulent mixing of two-layer stratified fluid

Experiments are reviewed in which a two-layer salt-stratified tank of water was mixed by turbulence. The density profile began as a single step and evolved to a smooth mixed profile. The turbulence was generated by many excursions of a horizontally moving vertical rod with Richardson number Ri >  0.9 and Reynolds Number Re  >  600. There was almost perfect collapse of all the profiles to one universal profile as a function of a similarity variable. We develop a theoretical model for a simple mixing law with a buoyancy flux that is a function of internal Richardson number Rii. A similarity equation is found. A flux law that increases with small Rii and decreases with large Rii is considered next. Since no analytical solution is known, the similarity concept is tested by numerically integrating the equations in space and time. With buoyancy flux monotonically increasing with internal Richardson number, the similarity approach is valid for a profile starting from a slightly smoothed step. However, a shock forms for a mixing law with higher initial Rii (so that buoyancy flux decreases with Richardson number) and the similarity approach is invalid for those initial conditions.     

Spatial distribution of the infaunal benthic communities of the Ría de Muros,north-west Spain

Benthic samples were collected at 13 stations in the Ría de Muros, north-west Spain. There are three major communities: (1) in the southern and outer part of the ría, an Amphiura filiformis—Thyone fusus community, inhabiting sandy sediments with low organic content; (2) in the middle part of the ría, and Amphiura chiajei—Maldane glebifex community, inhabiting muddy sediments that are not anoxic (sulphide not detected); (3) in Muros Bay and the inner part of the ría, a Spiochaetopterus costarum community, inhabiting anoxic sediments with high organic content. Biomass is very high (up to 46.2 g ash-free dry wt) in the first two communities. In the Spiochaetopterus costarum community, biomass and diversity are much lower, probably because of oxygen deficiency.     

Social network analysis and valid Markov chain Monte Carlo tests of null models

Analyses of animal social networks derived from group-based associations often rely on randomisation methods developed in ecology (Manly, Ecology 76:1109–1115, 1995) and made available to the animal behaviour community through implementation of a pair-wise swapping algorithm by Bejder et al. (Anim Behav 56:719–725, 1998). We report a correctable flaw in this method and point the reader to a wider literature on the subject of null models in the ecology literature. We illustrate the importance of correcting the method using a toy network and use it to make a preliminary analysis of a network of associations among eagle rays.

Fecundity and reproductive strategies in deep-sea incirrate octopuses (Cephalopoda: Octopoda)

Coleoid cephalopods show flexibility in their reproductive strategies or mode of spawning, which can range from simultaneous terminal spawning over a short period at the end of the animal’s life to continuous spawning over a long period of the animal’s life. Although a simultaneous terminal spawning strategy is typical of shallow water temperate octopuses, it is not known whether deep-sea octopods would have the same reproductive strategy. The reproductive strategies and fecundity were investigated in nine species of deep-sea incirrate octopuses: Bathypolypus arcticus, Bathypolypus bairdii, Bathypolypus ergasticus, Bathypolypus sponsalis, Bathypolypus valdiviae, Benthoctopus levis, Benthoctopus normani, Benthoctopus sp., and Graneledone verrucosa (total n = 85). Egg-length frequency graphs and multivariate analysis (principal components analysis) suggest that B. sponsalis has a synchronous ovulation pattern and therefore a simultaneous terminal spawning strategy. Although a simultaneous terminal spawning strategy is most likely for B. levis and B. normani, the egg-length frequency graphs and multivariate analysis also suggest a greater variation in egg-lengths which could lead to spawning over an extended period.     

Ultrastructure of the mature spermatozoon of the coconut crabBirgus latro (Coenobitidae: Paguroidea: Decapoda)

The spermatozoon ofBirgus latro (Linnaeus, 1767) is approx 14µm in length. It is composed of a large multi-layered oblong-ovoid acrosome which is capped by a conical operculum and lies anterior to a small ring of cytoplasm and an amorphous nucleus which is drawn out into a series of arms or extensions. Originating from the cytoplasmic area are three further long microtubular arms. The sperm ofB. latro is very similar to the sperm of the only other genus in the Coenobitidae,Coenobita, of whichC. clypeatus is a representative species. They share a suite of ultrastructural characters including: a long, cylindrical, capsule-bound acrosome containing an inner acrosome core, a large acrosome ray zone and a thin outer acrosome zone; an apical operculum anterior to a subopercular zone divided into two areas of differing density; an invaginated perforatorial zone with a bipartite granular matrix; microvillus-like extensions of the inner acrosome core projecting into the perforatorial invagination; a ring of cytoplasm, around the base of the acrosome, containing numerous mitochondria, extensive lamellar systems and the bases of three microtubular arms; granular nuclear material forming irregular arms; and at the posterior portion of the cell membrane a combination of nuclear and plasma membranes. Some ultrastructural characters which separate the two genera are: a domed operculum inC. clypeatus as opposed to a conical one inB. latro; inB. latro there is some residual cytoplasm external to the operculum and centrioles are absent from the mature spermatozoon; inC. clypeatus the inner acrosome core does not appear to invest the perforatorium and a series of dense rods are found subjacent and internal to the operculum. Similarities between the two coenobitids are greater than those shared with the paguridEupagurus bernhardus. In this latter species, the acrosome is more ovoid than cylindrical and the acrosome zones are less conspicuous; the operculum is absent from the mature sperm (although present during spermiohistogenesis); no subopercular zone is present; the perforatorium contains longitudinally arranged microtubules and extends the full length of the acrosome; and the nuclear material does not form separate nuclear arms. Sperm ultrastructure supports monophyly of the Paguroidea, while distinguishing coenobitids from pagurids within this superfamily.     

Photodegradation of the organophosphorus insecticide ‘Phorate’

The photolysis of Phorate(I) (0,0‐diethyl S‐ethyl thiomethyl phosphordithioate) has been studied as a thin film on a glass surface and in a solution of methanol‐water (60:40) by ultraviolet light (λ > 290 nm). The rate of disappearance of Phorate in the solution show first order Kinetics with a rate constant of 4.9 × 10^–5 S ^–1. The half‐life of (I) exposed on a glass surface is found to be 5 hours. The structure of the major photoproducts were characterised by ¹H NMR and mass spectroscopy.     

Male mating speed promote hybridization in the Rana lessonae–Rana esculenta waterfrog system

Hybridization is a widespread phenomenon in many vertebrate groups. Prezygotic isolating mechanisms, probably caused by selection against hybrids with reduced fitness, reduce the likelihood of such events. Although hybrid-reduced fitness relatively to parental species is common, hybridization can also be beneficial, and hybrids sometimes outperform the pure species type. In this study, we examined two potential processes, Hubbs’s principle and male–male competition, which could enhance hybridization in the waterfrog complex and thus explain the proportion of heterospecific pairs collected in a natural pond. Firstly, by collecting 791 frogs in the field to study pair and chorus composition, we showed that in a mixed Rana lessonae–Rana esculenta population, the scarcity of hybrid R. esculenta males did not account for the proportion of heterospecific pairs: indeed, when examining pairing composition in six different choruses, we found that hybrid males were always under-represented and that R. esculenta females were found paired with R. lessonae males. Secondly, we investigated experimentally whether or nor male–male competition mechanism could explain pair formation in waterfrogs. Our mating speed experiment highlights mechanisms that could explain heterospecific pairs in a context of promiscuous mating where scramble competition was intense. To measure the rapidity with which a male grasps a female, we placed males in a grid cage with a female, and the dynamics of pair formation was monitored. R. esculenta males showed a lower pairing success than R. lessonae males as a smaller proportion of them amplexed females, and more time was needed for them to get amplexed. Thus, a less adaptative mechanism than female mate choice may also explain the mating pattern observed in waterfrog species.     

A synomone imparting distinct sex pheromone communication channels for Choristoneura rosaceana (Harris) and Pandemis limitata (Robinson) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae)

Summary. Male obliquebanded leafrollers, Choristoneura rosaceana (Harris), were induced to respond to a pheromone source tainted with a behavioural antagonist, Z9-tetradecenyl acetate, when a source releasing the antagonist was placed 10 cm upwind of the tainted source in a wind tunnel. However, placement of the antagonist upwind of an attractive pheromone source did not interrupt pheromone-mediated responses. Placement of a source releasing Z9-tetradecenyl acetate, a minor pheromone component of the sympatric species, the threelined leafroller, Pandemis limitata (Robinson), upwind of a calling P. limitata female, reduced conspecific male pheromone-mediated response but resulted in upwind flight by male C. rosaceana and contact with heterospecific females. Male P. limitata locked on and flew upwind to but did not contact heterospecific females when a source releasing Z9-tetradecenyl acetate was positioned upwind of a calling C. rosaceana female. In the field, adaptation or habituation to Z9-tetradecenyl acetate caused by atmospheric treatment with this compound apparently resulted in reciprocal heterospecific pheromone responses. More C. rosaceana males were captured in traps baited with their pheromone and the behavioural antagonist in small field plots treated atmospherically with Z9-tetradecenyl acetate than in nontreated control plots. Fewer male P. limitata were captured in traps baited with their own pheromone, or with C. rosaceana pheromone tainted with Z9-tetradecenyl acetate in plots treated atmospherically with Z9-tetradecenyl acetate than in nontreated control plots. We argue that Z9-tetradecenyl acetate is an important synomone which assists in partitioning the sexual chemical communication channels of C. rosaceana and P. limitata. Received 9 February 1999; accepted 22 March 1999.     

Studying crop sequences with CarrotAge,a HMM-based data mining software

We have developed a knowledge discovery system based on high-order hidden Markov models for analyzing spatio-temporal data bases. This system, named CarrotAge , takes as input an array of discrete data – the rows represent the spatial sites and the columns the time slots – and builds a partition together with its a posteriori probability. CarrotAge has been developed for studying the cropping patterns of a territory. It uses therefore an agricultural drench database, named Ter-Uti , which records every year the land-use category of a set of sites regularly spaced. The results of CarrotAge are interpreted by agronomists and used in research works linking agricultural land use and water management. Moreover, CarrotAge can be used to find out and study crop sequences in large territories, that is a main question for agricultural and environmental research, as discussed in this paper.     

Factors in reliable treatment plant operation for the production of safe water

This contribution to the International Congress on Production of Safe Water, Izmir, Turkey, 20–24 January, 2009, relates to general aspects of a water supply undertaking rather than to particular technologies or chemistries for water treatment. The paper offers a “creative problem solving” approach following Fogler and LeBlanc (Strategies for creative problem solving. Prentice Hall, NJ, 1995) as a model for generating sustainable solutions when water quality and safety problems arise. Such a structured approach presents a systematic methodology that can promote communication and goal-sharing across the inter-related, but often isolated and dispersed, functions of water scientists and researchers, engineers, operations managers, government departments and communities. A problem-solving strategy, or “heuristic”, invokes five main steps (define; generate; decide; implement; evaluate). Associated with each step are various creative and enabling techniques, many of which are quite familiar to us in one form or another, but which we can use more effectively in combination and through our increased awareness and practice. For example, taking a fresh view of a problem can be promoted by a variety of “lateral thinking” tools. First-hand investigation of a problem can trigger new thinking about the real problem and its origins. A good strategy implementation will always address each and every step (though not necessarily every possible technique) and will use them at various stages in the search for and implementation of solutions. The creative nature of our experience with a problem-solving heuristic develops our facility to cope better with complex formal situations, as well as with less formal or everyday problem situations. A few anecdotes are presented that illustrate some of the author’s experiences relating to factors involved in safe water supply. Here, the term “factors” may signify people and organisations as agents, as well as meaning those aspects of a problem situation that need to be taken into account.