Forecast of the demand and supply plan of China’s uranium resources till 2030

This paper’s purpose is to predict China’s uranium resources demand from 2016 to 2030 based on experimental modeling. In addition, we discuss the future supply structure of China’s uranium resources by analyzing the domestic and foreign supply capacity of China’s uranium resources. According the forecast results, Chinese uranium resource demand will reach 21385 tU in 2030 under a medium scenario. Due to the poor endowment of uranium resources, China’s domestic uranium production will increase slowly. It can be calculated that the total demand of uranium resources in China during 2016–2030 will be 216581 tU, the cumulative production of domestic production will be 37900 tU, the overseas production will be 41950 tU, and the international market purchases will be 130574 tU. Hence, the cumulative degree of dependence on foreign resources is approximately 80%. China’s foreign dependence on uranium will be greater than for oil, and the situation will become extremely serious. Therefore, we put forward several suggestions to ensure the supply of China’s uranium resources: (1) strengthening mineral exploration and increasing domestic production, (2) actively operating the “going out” strategy, (3) enhancing the enterprise competition ability, and (4) establishing uranium resource reserves. By these means, China could efficiently guarantee the domestic uranium resource security and respond to the competition of India’s uranium resources demand increased.     

The economics of uranium demand

The major characteristics of the demand for uranium are identified, and a number of factors which determine the actual level of uranium requirements of the nuclear power industry are discussed. Since the role of inventories is central to the process of short-term price formation, by comparing projections of uranium production and apparent consumption, the relative level of total inventories is calculated and an assessment is made of its likely impact on the uranium market during the 1980s.     

核电环境风险研究进展及管理启示

为满足快速增长的电力需求,缓解传统化石能源紧缺及其所伴随的大气污染问题,发电过程中几乎不产生常规大气污染物的核电逐渐成为我国重要的能源战略选择。但是,由于核电站在运行过程中,特别是发生重大核事故时,产生的放射性物质可能对健康造成负面影响,发展核电仍然存在较大的争议和阻力。在此背景下,需要构建科学、完善的核电风险评估与管理体系,以保障我国的核电行业健康、有序发展。在对国内外核电风险评估研究现状进行系统梳理的基础上,分析其对核电风险管理的意义,提出了我国未来构建核电风险评估与管理体系的建议。     

Uranium resource economics: An application of energy analysis

Current economic assessment implies that there are considerable quantities of uranium available for use in present thermal reactors, albeit at very high costs. However, this method of appraisal contains a fundamental contradiction concerning the relationship between the price of electricity and the cost of uranium concentrate. Derivation of real costs with the technique of energy analysis is used to correct this basic inconsistency. This approach demonstrates that the amount of economically recoverable uranium is substantially less than previously expected. Consequently, if current forecasts of nuclear power growth are achieved then serious shortages of uranium will occur in the foreseeable future.     

United States uranium resources the 1975–2000 outlook

The status of uranium resources for the USA for the period 1975–2000 can only be estimated within rather broad limits due to a complex interplay of the many factors involved. Minimum estimates for uranium oxide requirements to fuel light water nuclear reactors (LWRs) alone range from 2 × 10⁶ to 2.25 × 10⁶ tonnes U₃ O₈. These limits are deemed reasonable due to the unlikelihood of a firm commitment to the use of fast breeder reactors (FBRs) by the government; tentative decision dates range from 1988 to 2000 or so but, even presuming the former, the impact on uranium needs will not be felt until after 2000. A wider use of converter reactors may lighten the eventual uranium needs close to 2000. These reactors, however, were originally planned only for interim use during the change-over from LWRs to FBRs; hence their increased use will not affect the uranium demand until the next century. Present plans call for an accelerated exploration and development programme involving federal and state agencies with industry and other sources.     

Uranium resource appraisal: Past trends and outlook for adequacy of supply

As uranium has practically no other industrial uses besides electricity generation, demand is determined by the requirements and stockpiling policies of electric utilities. The uranium market has experienced strong fluctuations and is currently affected by the reductions in nuclear forecasts resulting from the slowdown in electricity demand. Analysing supply/demand indicators proves, however, that in retrospect the development has been relatively smooth and it appears that oversupply is more a consequence of overly optimistic short-term expectations. In the future, especially in the long term, nuclear power policies continue to be concerned with striking a proper balance between increasing production capability and development of new reactor technologies which would be less dependent on the availability of uranium. A bounding scenario approach is applied in this article to the assessment of adequacy of supply under varying assumptions on the total installed nuclear capacity, available resource base and attainable production capability.     

Research on Coupling Mechanism of China’s Wind Power Industry Chain

ABSTRACT

Firstly, on the basis of literature research, sort out and summarize the critical coupling relationship among the upstream, middle, and downstream enterprises in the wind power industry chain. Secondly, the evaluation index system of coupling coordination degree of China’s wind power industry chain was established. Based on entropy weight method and subsystem efficiency function, the capacity coupling (CC) coefficient model of wind power industry chain subsystem was established. The coupling coordination degree between the upstream subsystem and the midstream subsystem of the wind power industry chain, and between the midstream subsystem and the downstream subsystem is dynamically evaluated, and the coupling coordination degree evaluation model of the wind power industry chain in China is proposed. Thirdly, according to the relevant statistical data of China from 2010 to 2017, this paper conducts an empirical study on the coupling of the upstream, middle and downstream subsystems of the wind power industry chain. Finally, based on the collaborative coupling study of China’s wind power industry chain, this paper analyzes the key factors influencing the collaborative development of wind power industry chain, and puts forward Suggestions on the optimization of the collaborative development of China’s wind power industry chain.     

Is Nuclear Power Environmentally Sustainable?

The sustainability of nuclear energy is discussed in terms of its environmental impacts and its utilization of resources. The reactors in the present generation of fission reactors extract only a small percentage of the energy available from uranium. A solution to the long-term management of highly radioactive used reactor fuel is also a key factor in fission's sustainability. Recycling used fuel for enhanced energy production in advanced reactors and the mitigation of the long-term management of the remaining wastes, ideally with their ultimate destruction by nuclear transmutation, are technologies that need to be developed in order to ensure the long term sustainability of nuclear fission. In contrast, nuclear fusion, while not yet available for power production, promises to be inherently sustainable.     

Radon from uranium mill tailings: A source of significant radiation hazard?

Calculations regarding the long-term hazards to health from the radioactive gas radon which emanates from the tailings of milled uranium ores are presented here. The absolute and relative risks to the population from mill tailings, as well as technical solutions to the problem of disposal methods which would eliminate or minimize lung cancer risk, are discussed. Since the emission of radon from tailings will occur thousands of years after the projected benefits from nuclear-fission power have been obtained, the problem of present and future hazard from mill tailings calls for increased regulatory consideration.Now at Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C. 20036     

The case for nuclear electric power

Summary What role should the United States play in the energy economy of the world? Do we want to be uninvolved? Do we sit back and let the other industrial countries supply the rest of the world with nuclear power? Already, the world with four billion people and too high a growth rate is headed for trouble that could engulf us all. Four of five decades from now, when the population will have doubled to eight billion, the low sophistication level of today's energy users will very likely have run the total energy use very high. We in the United States will not only have our own energy problems; there will be an imperative need for a world energy policy, and we should be part of the negotiation. The United States will have to be more than self-sufficient. Power from uranium and thorium will expectably be our backbone. both at home and abroad. Among other things, Americans cannot afford to have profligate worldwide use of fossil fuel, with the expected movement of good crop weather northward, away from the best food-producing areas. American agriculture might be hit the hardest. Problems like these are world problems, and they just won't go away. We are part of them. Is it not to our own interest to have our own energy situation under control, so we can help shape the global outcome? This article is reprinted (excerpted) with the permission of Education Development Center, Inc., from “The Case for Nuclear Electric Power”, Occasional Paper No. 1 by Saville R. Davis and Jerrold R. Zacharias of the Energy in Perspective Project, funded by the Business Roundtable, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, For Biographic sketches of the Authors please see pages 305–306.     

我国袋式除尘行业2008年发展综述

综述了2008年我国袋式除尘行业的发展概况;分析了袋式除尘技术在水泥、钢铁与有色冶金、电力、垃圾焚烧等行业的开发应用情况;针对袋式除尘行业在发展过程中存在的主要问题提出了对策建议,并对行业的发展趋势进行了展望。     

The Environmental sustainability of mining in Australia: key mega-trends and looming constraints

At first ‘sustainable mining’ could be perceived as a paradox—minerals are widely held to be finite resources with rising consumption causing pressure on known resources. The true sustainability of mineral resources, however, is a much more complex picture and involves exploration, technology, economics, social and environmental issues, and advancing scientific knowledge—predicting future sustainability is therefore not a simple task. This paper presents the results from a landmark study on historical trends in Australian mining, including ore milled, ore grades, open cut versus underground mining, overburden/waste rock and economic resources. When complete data sets are compiled for specific metals, particular issues stand out with respect to sustainability—technological breakthroughs (e.g. flotation, carbon-in-pulp), new discoveries (e.g. uranium or U), price changes (e.g. Au, boom/bust cycles), social issues (e.g. strikes), etc. All of these issues are of prime importance in moving towards a semi-quantitative sustainability model of mineral resources and the mining industry. For the future, critical issues will continue to be declining ore grades (also ore quality and impurities), increased waste rock and associated liabilities, known economic resources, potential breakthrough technologies, and broader environmental constraints (e.g. carbon costs, water). For this latter area, many companies now report annually on sustainability performance—facilitating analysis of environmental sustainability with respect to production performance. By linking these two commonly disparate aspects—mining production and environmental/sustainability data—it becomes possible to better understand environmental sustainability and predict future constraints such as water requirements, greenhouse emissions, energy and reagent inputs, and the like. This paper will therefore present a range of fundamental data and issues which help towards quantifying the resource and environmental sustainability of mining—with critical implications for the mining industry and society as a whole.     

环境保护领域地方市级首次立法进展研究

为调研设区的市立法权放开后各地立法进展,通过全国各省市政府网站(除港澳台外)等公开渠道收集整理的各设区的市"首次立法"(第一部实体法,简称"首法")立法情况,发现截至2017年7月,全国89%新获立法权设区的市已完成"首法"立项,超一半新获立法权设区的市已顺利出台"首法"。从"首法"立项类型来看,约40%设区的市"首法"关注环境保护,仅次于城乡建设与管理类立法,表明环境保护是各地"首法"立法关注的重点领域之一。从地方环境"首法"立项类型来看,水环境保护领域条例立项数最多,其次是生态保护领域和大气污染防治领域;从地方环境"首法"立项分布来看,水环境保护类条例多分布于位于水系末端的沿海各省,大气污染防治条例则主要集中于京津冀及其周边空气质量较差的区域。当前国家高度重视生态文明建设,各地有必要抓住地方立法这一机遇,研究出台地方环境条例,助力地方环境管理水平的提升。     

Methodology of industry scale analysis under the constraint of regional resource capacity using HSY algorithm

This paper develops a methodology of proper scale analysis for regional industry development, which can be used in industry planning with the consideration of regional resource capacities. In the face of different data sources and even data scarcity, alternative methods based on linear programming and quadratic programming algorithms for calculating the resource intensity factors are designed. Based on the empirical study of industrialization, initial scenarios of industry development were set. Using HSY algorithm, sensitive industries that may cause exceeding regional resource capacity can be identified, and the risk of exceeding can be predicted and expressed in probability. Furthermore, a proper scale range can be designed for these sensitive industries according to resource capacity. Taking the case of Dalian city in China, this paper estimated the regional urban development plan, various resources capacities were studied, and land resources were estimated to be the most critical resource for the city. The land resource depletion intensities of different industries are calculated by quadratic programming algorithm. Under the constraint of 427.56 km² available industrial land resources, the electronic and power industries have the most significant impact on total land use, if the scale of power industry exceeds 1.27 billion USD, the probability of land resource capacity breakthrough will be 50%.     

Natech风险研究:现状、理论及展望

由自然灾害引发的工业企业环境安全事故又称为自然灾害诱发的技术事故(Natech).我国是工业大国,重化工业是我国的主导产业之一;同时我国还是世界上自然灾害严重的国家之一,Natech风险不容忽视.开展Natech风险识别、评估和管理研究,有助于我国Natech风险管理体系的完善,防范和降低区域Natech风险.目前,我国Natech风险基础研究尚处于起步阶段,难以支撑我国Natech风险防控实践.本文从Natech风险发生机制、风险评估、风险感知与最大可接受风险水平、风险管理体系等四个方面回顾了国内外Natech风险研究现状,初步梳理了Natech风险的基本理论,并对我国未来Natech风险的研究方向进行了展望,为我国Natech风险研究领域的发展提供参考.     

Rural industries and water pollution in China

Water pollution from small rural industries is a serious problem throughout China. Over half of all river sections monitored for water quality are rated as being unsafe for human contact, and this pollution is estimated to cost several per cent of GDP. While China has some of the toughest environmental protection laws in the world, the implementation of these laws in rural areas is not effective. This paper explains the reasons for this implementation gap. It argues that the factors that have underpinned the economic success of rural industry are precisely the same factors that cause water pollution from rural industry to remain such a serious problem in China. This means that the control of rural water pollution is not simply a technical problem of designing a more appropriate governance system, or finding better policy instruments or more funding. Instead, solutions lie in changes in the model that underpins rural development in China.     

以电代煤的经济与环境效益分析

我国《能源发展战略行动计划(2014—2020年)》指出,加快构建清洁、高效、安全、可持续的现代能源体系,重点实施"绿色低碳"等四种能源发展战略,因此"以电代煤"将成为我国未来能源战略中的一项重要选择。本文运用技术经济分析法和排放系数法,计算了八大主要用能部门以电代煤的经济成本和环境价值。计算结果表明:各部门用电设备的初始投资和电力消费等经济成本是燃煤设备的初始投资及燃煤消费等经济成本的1.8~2.8倍,但是,以用电设备替代燃煤设备的环境价值非常可观。在考虑了环境外部性成本后,居民生活行业,商业,非金属矿物制品业,石油加工、炼焦和核燃料加工业,化学原料和化学制品制造业,以及非高耗能工业六个部门进行"以电代煤"在目前的情况下具有经济可行性,而有色金属冶炼和压延工业,以及黑色金属冶炼和压延工业"以电代煤"暂时不具有经济可行性。最后,提出了相关政策建议。     

我国铜矿资源形势及其可持续供应对策

通过对我国铜矿资源的供需形势进行分析,得知其安全供应问题已经处于高度紧张状态,年进口量在不断增加,对外依存度在不断升级,进而成为制约我国铜工业健康发展的"瓶颈".为了保障我国铜矿资源可持续安全供应与促进铜工业的健康发展,就其可持续供应的对策问题进行了探讨.     

我国工业SO2排放趋势及影响因素分析

分析了我国工业SO2排放量的变化趋势,以及其与GDP、工业产值、火电厂发电量等指标的变化关系;利用50个省市1998—2007年的有关数据建立了SO2排放量的影响因素面板数据模型,力求通过定量分析识别影响我国工业SO2排放量的关键因素。研究表明,我国工业SO2排放量与第二产业比重、火力发电比重并无明显关系,而GDP、发电量、一次能源转化效率、SO2去除率存在显著关系,对SO2工业实际排放量起决定作用的是SO2的去除率。     

国内外工业源颗粒物无组织排放控制标准研究

工业企业颗粒物无组织排放是环境空气中颗粒物的主要来源之一。长期以来,由于我国工业生产粗放型发展,环境管理不够精细,企业重视程度不够,从而导致颗粒物无组织排放问题越发突出,严重影响了我国大气环境质量的根本改善。工业源颗粒物无组织排放控制标准是我国大气污染物排放标准体系的重要组成部分,亦是颗粒物无组织排放管理和执法监管的重要技术依据。了解国内外当前工业源颗粒物无组织排放控制标准的发展现状、体系特点及存在的问题,有助于科学指导我国工业源颗粒物无组织排放控制标准的制定。本文系统研究了中国、美国、德国和日本的工业源颗粒物无组织排放控制法规及标准,通过对比分析,指出了我国工业源颗粒物无组织排放控制标准存在的问题,并提出完善标准的建议,为优化我国现行大气污染物排放标准体系、深化颗粒物污染防治和管理提供参考依据。