Kriging for estimating spatial pattern of contaminants: Potential and problems

This paper discusses and illustrates the use of kriging techniques for estimating the spatial pattern of contaminants in environmental media, particularly soil. The assumptions underlying kriging are reviewed as are some advantages and disadvantages of the method. Lognormal kriging (kriging applied to logarithmic-transformed data) is illustrated using a set of radionuclide soil concentrations at a nuclear testing area on the Nevada Test Site. This example shows how lognormal kriging can be used to estimate average concentrations at points or for blocks of land, concentration contours over space, confidence bands about these contours, and radionuclide inventory in soil. The validity of kriging estimates depends on the accurate estimation and modeling of the spatial correlation structure of the phenomenon. Accuracy is especially important when lognormal kriging is used and estimates of means and their standard deviations are required in the original, untransformed scale. This paper illustrates the bias that can result when a changing correlation structure over space is ignored.Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy by Battelle Memorial InstituteWork supported by Nevada Applied Ecology Group, U.S. Department of Energy, Nevada Operations Office under Contract DE-AC06-76RLO 1830.     

Accounting for forest carbon pool dynamics in product carbon footprints: Challenges and opportunities

Modification and loss of forests due to natural and anthropogenic disturbance contribute an estimated 20% of annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide. Although forest carbon pool modeling rarely suggests a ‘carbon neutral’ flux profile, the life cycle assessment community and associated product carbon footprint protocols have struggled to account for the GHG emissions associated with forestry, specifically, and land use generally. Principally, this is due to underdeveloped linkages between life cycle inventory (LCI) modeling for wood and forest carbon modeling for a full range of forest types and harvest practices, as well as a lack of transparency in globalized forest supply chains. In this paper, through a comparative study of U.S. and Chinese coated freesheet paper, we develop the initial foundations for a methodology that rescales IPCC methods from the national to the product level, with reference to the approaches in three international product carbon footprint protocols. Due to differences in geographic origin of the wood fiber, the results for two scenarios are highly divergent. This suggests that both wood LCI models and the protocols need further development to capture the range of spatial and temporal dimensions for supply chains (and the associated land use change and modification) for specific product systems. The paper concludes by outlining opportunities to measure and reduce uncertainty in accounting for net emissions of biogenic carbon from forestland, where timber is harvested for consumer products.     

A methodology to estimate carbon storage and flux in forestland using existing forest and soils databases

Sequestration of carbon through expansion and management offorestland can assist in reducing greenhouse gas concentrationsin the atmosphere. Quantification of the amount of carbonpresents an ongoing challenge that calls for new approaches.These new approaches must seek to simplify the science-basedaccounting of carbon storage and flux, while adhering to generalprinciples of greenhous gas accounting. Quantifying change incarbon storage and carbon flux consists of two steps: developinga baseline of carbon storage, and measuring resulting storageand flux following a change of conditions. A methodology isproposed that accomplishes both steps, applicable to anaggregate-level analysis using the state of Iowa (U.S.A.) as a case study. The method combines existing databasesfrom the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) and U.S. Department ofAgriculture (USDA), and merges these with the methods of Birdsey(USDA, 1992, 1995; IPCC, 1997; EIIP, 1999) for partitioningcarbon stocks into storage pools. Forested ecosystems in the study area contain approximately 137.3 metric tons organiccarbon per hectare, or 114 million metric tons of carbon inaggregate. Of this total, 44.7 million tons are stored inbiomass tissue, and 69.2 million tons of carbon are contained insoils. Carbon flux due to forests in the state of Iowa isestimated to be a net annual sequestration (removal from theatmosphere) of 4.3 million metric tons of CO₂-equivalent,approximately 5% of the net annual CO₂-equivalentemissions from the state (Ney et al., 1996).     

monitoring bioaccumulation of contaminants in the belted kingfisher (ceryle alcyon)

The belted kingfisher (Ceryle alcyon), acommon piscivore in the eastern United States, hasbecome a common endpoint in ecological riskassessments (ERA) because of their high consumptionof potentially contaminated aquatic prey. Whilebioaccumulation data and biosurveys may be used tosupport conclusions of ERAs for kingfishers, thereare currently no published data on contaminantconcentrations in kingfishers. Additionally,methods available for collecting biological samples(e.g., feathers, eggs, food debris, etc.) fromkingfisher burrows can be detrimental to thereproductive success of the birds. We present amethod for obtaining samples from burrows during orfollowing the nesting season. The method wasapplied to kingfisher burrows on the Oak RidgeReservation (ORR) in eastern Tennessee. Feathers,eggshells, and nestlings were collected from burrows and analyzed. In addition, carcasses ofthree adult kingfishers found dead on the ORR wereanalyzed. Metals and radionuclides were accumulatedby both juvenile and adult birds. Body burdens ofcadmium, lead, and cesium-137 in adult birds were belowlevels associated with toxicity. Concentrations of selenium and mercury were observed at potentiallytoxic levels. Contaminants in eggshells andnestling feathers indicate exposure, however, thereis insufficient information to evaluate thetoxicological significance of this contamination.National Laboratory Oak Ridge National Laboratory is managed for the U.S. Department of Energy by Lockheed Martin Energy Research Corp. under contract DE-AC05-96OR22464     

Global methane emissions from the world coal industry

The Coal Industry Advisory Board (CIAB) of the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated the total methane emissions from worldwide mining, treatment and storage of coal to be approximately 25 million tonnes/year for 1990. Slightly more than one million tonnes of methane are utilized by the industry. Thus, the net annual discharge to the atmosphere is 24 million tonnes. Methane emissions data were available for the U.S., the U.K., former U.S.S.R., Australia, China, Germany, Poland and Czechoslovakia. Methane emissions for India and S. Africa were estimated from a linear correlation between the average depth of mining and specific methane emissions derived from the available data for the eight countries. These ten largest coal producing countries represented nearly 90% of world coal production in 1990. Total methane emissions for the world coal industry were calculated by prorating the methane emissions from these ten countries in proportion to coal production.The reported values represent the best international data available at present. The net total emissions of 24 million tonnes/year are substantially less than some previously reported indirect estimations and constitute only 4 to 6% of the global methane emissions.     

Estimating aquatic toxicity as determined through laboratory tests of great lakes sediments containing complex mixtures of environmental contaminants

We developed and evaluated a total toxic units modeling approach for predicting mean toxicity as measured in laboratory tests for Great Lakes sediments containing complex mixtures of environmental contaminants (e.g., polychlorinated biphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, pesticides, chlorinated dioxins, and metals). The approach incorporates equilibrium partitioning and organic carbon control of bioavailability for organic contaminants and acid volatile sulfide (AVS) control for metals, and includes toxic equivalency for planar organic chemicals. A toxic unit is defined as the ratio of the estimated pore-water concentration of a contaminant to the chronic toxicity of that contaminant, as estimated by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Ambient Water Quality Criteria (AWQC). The toxic unit models we developed assume complete additivity of contaminant effects, are completely mechanistic in form, and were evaluated without any a posteriori modification of either the models or the data from which the models were developed and against which they were tested. A linear relationship between total toxic units, which included toxicity attributable to both iron and un-ionized ammonia, accounted for about 88% of observed variability in mean toxicity; a quadratic relationship accounted for almost 94%. Exclusion of either bioavailability components (i.e., equilibrium partitioning control of organic contaminants and AVS control of metals) or iron from the model substantially decreased its ability to predict mean toxicity. A model based solely on un-ionized ammonia accounted for about 47% of the variability in mean toxicity. We found the toxic unit approach to be a viable method for assessing and ranking the relative potential toxicity of contaminated sediments.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

The Contribution of Mathematical Models to Climate Policy Design: a Researcher’s Perspective

Energy and the environment are closely interconnected. In particular, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are major contributors to climate change. To analyze options within the energy sector to curb greenhouse gas emissions, or to study alternative climate strategies such as adaptation and geoengineering measures, policy-makers can rely on mathematical decision support models, in particular E3 (economy/energy/environment) models and integrated assessment models (IAMs). This paper reviews some of my recent contributions to climate policy design using different types of E3 models and IAMs.     

Uranium speciation in moorland river water samples: a comparison of experimental results and computer model predictions

An on-line method has been developed for separating inorganic and organic bound uranium species present in river water samples. The method utilised a small chelating resin (Hyphan) column incorporated into the sample introduction manifold of an ICP-MS instrument. The method was evaluated for samples from rivers on Dartmoor (Devon, UK), an area of granite overlain with peat bogs. The results indicate that organic-uranium species form a major proportion (80%) of the total dissolved uranium present. Further work with synthetic water samples indicated that the level of dissolved organic carbon played a greater role in determining the level of organic-uranium species than did sample pH. Computer models for the water samples were constructed using the WHAM program (incorporating uranium data from the Nuclear Energy Agency Thermochemical Database project) in order to predict the levels of organic-uranium species that would form. By varying the proportion of humic and fulvic acids used in the humic component, predictions within 10% of the experimental results were obtained. The program did exhibit a low bias at higher pH values (7.5) and low organic carbon concentrations (0.5 microg ml(-1)), but under the natural conditions prevalent in the Dartmoor water samples, the model predictions were successful.     

Choosing an appropriate soil-gas survey method

Three types of soil-gas surveys were performed over the same location at an industrial facility. The surveys performed were (1) a passive technique using buried collectors, (2) an active technique in which samples were collected in the field by pumping with subsequent analysis at a field laboratory, and (3) a screening technique that employed a hand-held survey instrument. Each of the surveys had desirable features, but there was considerable variability in the quality of data obtained, cost, and ease of performance. The passive and active surveys provided excellent detection limits, but the passive technique does not provide data in real time. The active survey was also time-consuming and required an analytical chemist in the field. Neither the active nor the passive survey were able to delineate the plume of contaminated groundwater. Consequently, the results from the rapid and inexpensive reconnaissance technique provided functionally equivalent data.Publication No. 3672, Environmental Sciences Division, ORNL.Operated by Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC05-840R21400.     

Normality transformations for environmental data from compound normal-lognormal distributions

The combination of lognormally distributed quantities of interest with normally distributed random measurement error produces data that follow a compound normal-lognormal (NLN) distribution. When the measurement error is large enough, such data do not approximate normality, even after a logarithmic transformation. This paper reports the results of a search for a transformation method for NLN data that is not only technically appropriate, but easy to implement as well. Three transformation families were found to work relatively well. These families are compared in terms of success in achieving normality and robustness, using simulated NLN data and actual environmental data believed to follow a NLN distribution. The exponential family of transformations was found to give the best overall results. This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management, under DOE Idaho Field Office Contract DE-AC07-76ID01570.     

Status of Aquatic Bioassessment in U.S. EPA Region IX

U.S. EPA Region IX is supporting bioassessment programs in Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada using biocriteria program and Regional Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (R-EMAP) resources. These programs are designed to improve the state, tribal and regional ability to determine the status of water quality. Biocriteria program funds were used to coordinate with Arizona, California and Hawaii which resulted in these states establishing reference conditions and in developing biological indices. U.S. EPA Region IX has initiated R-EMAP projects in California and Nevada. These U.S. EPA Region IX sponsored programs have provided an opportunity to interact with the States and provide them with technical and management support. In Arizona, several projects are being conducted to develop the State's bioassessment program. These include the development of a rotational random monitoring program; a regional reference approach for macroinvertebrate bioassessments; ecoregion approach to testing and adoption of an alternate regional classification system; and development of warm-water and cold-water indices of biological integrity. The indices are projected to be used in the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ) 2000 water quality assessment report. In California, an Index of Biological Integrity (IBI) has been developed for the Russian River Watershed using resources from U.S. EPA's Non-point Source (NPS) Program grants. A regional IBI is under development for certain water bodies in the San Diego Regional Water Quality Control Board. Resources from the U.S. EPA Biocriteria program are being used to support the California Aquatic Bioassessment Workgroup (CABW) in conjunction with the California Department of Fish & Game (CDFG), and to support the Hawaii Department of Health (DoH) Bioassessment Program to refine biological metrics. In Nevada, R-EMAP resources are being used to create a baseline of aquatic information for the Humboldt River watershed. U.S. EPA Region IX is presently working with the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP) to establish a Nevada Aquatic Bioassessment Workgroup. Future R-EMAP studies will occur in the Calleguas Creek watershed in Southern California, and in the Muddy and Virgin River watersheds in southern Nevada, and the Walker River watershed in eastern California and west-central Nevada.     

Biodegradation testing of radioactive waste forms

Biodegradation tests were conducted on solidified waste forms containing ion exchange resins contaminated with high levels of radioactive nuclides. These tests were part of a program to test waste forms in accordance with the U.S. NRC Branch Technical Position on Waste Forms. Small waste forms were manufactured using two different solidification agents, Portland Type I–II cement and vinyl ester-styrene (VES). Ion exchange material was taken from a filter system which had been used to remove radionuclides from highly contaminated water. As specified by NRC, the waste forms were evaluated for their resistance to biological degradation using the G21 and G22 procedures of the American Society for Testing Materials (ASTM). Results showed that microbial growth can be supported by the VES waste forms. The particular organisms used in the tests did not grow in the presence of the cement waste forms. It is also shown that the ASTM tests specified in the Technical Position are not suitable for the use intended. A different testing methodology is recommended which would provide direct verification of waste form integrity.Work supported by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, under DOE Contract No. DE-AC07-761D01570.This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, or any of their employees, makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for any third party's use, or the results of such use, of any information, apparatus, product or process disclosed in this report, or represents that its use by such third party would not infringe privately owned rights. The views expressed in this report are not necessarily those of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.     

Optimization of sampling for the determination of mean radium-226 concentration in surface soil

There are thousands of properties in the United States on which the soil has been contaminated to some degree with uranium mill tailings. An effort is now underway by the United States Department of Energy to identify sites contaminated with tailings and to perform remedial action when ²²⁶Ra levels exceed current guidelines. Because of the large number of sites involved, it is imperative that sample collection be performed in a cost-effective manner. In this paper we describe the results of a study in which we compared the efficiencies of different methods of sample collection in order to determine an optimal method for estimating the mean ²²⁶Ra concentration in soil. The study involved a field experiment in which extensive sampling was performed on sites known to be contaminated with uranium tailings. The experiment was designed to identify the advantages and limitations of composite sampling, the relative merits of random and uniformly spaced sample collection, the use of field gamma measurements for supplementing and reducing soil sample collection, and practical levels of accuracy and precision that can be obtained. Conclusions regarding gamma measurements are unique to ²²⁶Ra contamination. On the other hand, conclusions concerning composite sampling and random versus uniformly spaced sampling may depend primarily on the way the contamination was spread by man and hence may not be unique to ²²⁶Ra.Research sponsored by the Department of Remedial Action Projects, Office of Terminal Waste Disposal, U. S. Department of Energy under contract DE-AC05-84OR21400 with the Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc.ORNL—Grand Junction Office, Grand Junction, Colorado.     

The lognormal distribution,environmental data,and radiological monitoring

The lognormal distribution has become a common choice to represent intrinsically positive and often highly skewed environmental data in statistical analysis. However the implications of its use are often not carefully considered. With an emphasis on radiological monitoring applications, this paper reviews what assuming lognormality means in terms of data analysis and interpretation. The relationship of using normal theory methods on log transformed data to multiplicative errors and hypothesis testing in the original scale is also discussed.Work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy, DOE Contract No. DE-AC-07-76ID01570.     

Emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture,land-use change,and forestry in the Gambia

The Gambia has successfully completed a national greenhouse gas emissions inventory based on the results of a study funded by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)/Global Environment Facility (GEF) Country Case Study Program. The concepts of multisectoral, multidisciplinary, and interdisciplinary collaboration were most useful in the preparation of this inventory. New data were gathered during the study period, some through regional collaboration with institutions such as Environment and Development in the Third World (ENDA-TM) Energy Program and the Ecological Monitoring Center in Dakar, Senegal, and some through national surveys and the use of remote sensing techniques, as in the Bushfires Survey. Most of the data collected are used in this paper. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/International Energy Agency (IPCC/OECD/IEA) methodology is used to calculate greenhouse gas emissions. Many of the default data in the IPCC/OECD/IEA methodology have also been used. Overall results indicate that in the biomass sectors (agriculture, forestry, and land-use change) carbon dioxide (CO₂) is emitted most, with a total of 1.7 Tg. This is followed by methane (CH₄), 22.3 Gg; carbon monoxide (CO), 18.7 Gg; nitrogen oxides (NO_x), 0.3 Gg; and nitrous oxide (N₂O), 0.014 Gg. The Global Warming Potential (GWP) was used as an index to describe the relative effects of the various gases reported here. Based on the emissions in The Gambia in 1993, it was found that CO₂ will contribute 75%, CH₄ about 24.5%, and N₂O 0.2% of the warming expected in the 100-year period beginning in 1993. The results in this analysis are limited by the shortcomings of the IPCC/OECD/IEA methodology and scarce national data. Because the methodology was developed outside of the developing world, most of its emissions factors and coefficients were developed and tested in environments that are very different from The Gambia. This is likely to introduce some uncertainties into the results of the calculations. Factors and coefficients that are country-or region-specific are likely to provide more accurate results and should be developed. The surveys were conducted either during the wet season or just at the end of the wet season. This seasonal factor should contribute to variations in the results, particularly in the livestock numbers and composition survey. Use of one-time survey data is also likely to introduce uncertainty into the results.     

Variability of building environmental assessment tools on evaluating carbon emissions

With an increasing importance of sustainability in construction, more and more clients and designers employ building environmental assessment (BEA) tools to evaluate the environmental friendliness of their building facilities, and one important aspect of evaluation in the BEA models is the assessment of carbon emissions. However, in the absence of any agreed framework for carbon auditing and benchmarking, the results generated by the BEA tools might vary significantly which could lead to confusion or misinterpretation on the carbon performance of a building. This study thus aims to unveil the properties of and the standard imposed by the current BEA models on evaluating the life cycle carbon emissions. The analyses cover the (i) weighting of energy efficiency and emission levels among various environmental performance indicators; (ii) building life cycle stages in which carbon is taken into consideration; (iii) objectiveness of assessment; (iv) baseline set for carbon assessment; (v) mechanism for benchmarking the emission level; and (v) limitations of the carbon assessment approaches. Results indicate that the current BEA schemes focus primarily on operational carbon instead of the emissions generated throughout the entire building life cycle. Besides, the baseline and benchmark for carbon evaluation vary significantly among the BEA tools based on the analytical results of a hypothetical building. The findings point to the needs for a more transparent framework for carbon auditing and benchmarking in BEA modeling.     

Using Science to Assess Environmental Vulnerabilities

Beginning in 1995, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA), Office of Research and Development has focused much of its ecological research in the Mid-Atlantic as part of the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAIA). The goal of MAIA is to improve the assessability of scientific information in environmental decision-making. Following the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) whose goal is to guide monitoring that effectively reflects current ecosystem condition and trends, MAIA's second, current, phase of research under the Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program is designed to target risk management activities using available data and models. The papers presented here are from a conference held in May 2003 that presented results of research in this second phase of MAIA. The conference was organized into the following topics: 1. Assessing Current Impacts and Vulnerabilities 2. Forecasting Environmental Condition and Vulnerabilities 3. Developing Management Strategies to Optimize the Future, and 4. Assessing and Responding to Environmental Vulnerability.     

Development and Application of Computer Simulation Tools for Ecological Risk Assessment

Based on a review of available models for ecological risk estimation, most are site-specific and their applications are limited. However, general models, which can be easily adapted to other sites, remain few, in addition, they are simple and associated with significant uncertainties. In this paper, an approach is introduced for an ecological risk assessment (ERA) model that can be modified for site-specific conditions. Using computer simulation as a screening tool for ecological risk assessment can assist environmental managers and policy decision-makers in the planning and implementation of potentially highly focused assessments and remediation, should the ERA dictate the need. The model was integrated with a Windows-based interface and interactive database management system (DBMS) as a user-friendly software package. In addition, based on trophic sources, a food web has been integrated into the framework of the DBMS. In an effort to evaluate the model, a case study was implemented to characterize the effects on an ecosystem of replacing electroplated chromium coatings with sputtered tantalum at U.S. Army Yuma and Aberdeen Proving Grounds. Potential exposure pathways included ingestion, inhalation, and dermal absorption for terrestrial animals; root and foliar uptake for plants; and direct absorption for aquatic species. Overall, results showed that the most significant exposure resulted from molybdenum and hexavalent chromium, which posed higher risks to select aquatic and terrestrial species at both sites. On the other hand, tantalum (with vanadium as the surrogate) resulted in the least risk to all receptors within the studied areas. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that soil-water distribution coefficients have a significant impact on the results. Based on the results, neither molybdenum nor chromium are recommended as a coating in gun barrels, and further study would be essential to address any affected firing range area. Tantalum is recommended for use, although for those species receiving a slight adverse risk, field investigations that include receptor sampling maybe necessary once soil/sediment and water sampling validates projected concentrations.     

Passive ammonia monitoring in the United States: comparing three different sampling devices

The need for ambient gaseous ammonia (NH(3)) measurements has increased in the last decade as reactive NH(3) concentrations and deposition fluxes show little change even with tightening standards on nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) emissions. Currently, there are several networks developing methods for adding NH(3) measurements in the U.S. Gaseous NH(3) measurements will provide scientists and policymakers data which can be used to estimate ecosystem inputs, validate air quality models including trends and regional variability, and evaluate changes to the environment based on additional emission reduction requirements and estimates of critical nitrogen load exceedances. The passive samplers described in this paper were deployed in duplicate or triplicate and collocated with annular denuders or continuous instruments to determine their accuracy. The samplers assessed included the Adapted Low-Cost Passive High Absorption (ALPHA), Radiello(?), and Ogawa passive samplers. The median relative percent differences (MRPD) between the reference method and passive samplers for the ALPHA, Radiello(?) and Ogawa were -2.4%, -37% and -44%, respectively. The precision between duplicate samplers for the ALPHA and Ogawa samplers, was 7% and 6%, respectively. Triplicate Radiello(?) precision was assessed using the coefficient of variation (CV). The CV for the Radiello(?) samplers was 10%. This article discusses the statistical results from these studies.     

Analyzing censored environmental data using survival analysis: Single sample techniques

The occurrence of censored data due to less than detectable measurements is a common problem with environmental data. The methods of survival analysis, although designed primarily for right censored data and time measured variables, can be adapted to apply censored environmental data. These methods have several theoretical and practical advantages over many existing techniques for dealing with less than detectable measurements.Work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy, DOE Contract No. DE-AC07-76ID01570.