Promoting integration and cooperation for sustainability views from the symposium held at UNESCO headquarters September 19, 2013

This public symposium explored ways to integrate knowledge about and strengthen cooperation on complex and interconnected global sustainability issues. (The symposium was organized by the United Nations University (UNU), The University of Tokyo Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science (IR3S), as well as UNESCO. Co-organizers were the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology-Japan (MEXT) and the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS). Participants included representatives from key institutes and UNESCO’s programs in the areas of water, ocean and ecological sciences as well as social and natural sciences, UNESCO Member states, scholars and policymakers. The symposium program and list of speakers is attached. See also www.isp.unu.edu). The central question put to symposium deliberations was one that many policy- and decision-makers as well as academic scholars struggle with today: how can we overcome barriers to action that will put societies around the world on a path to a more stable and sustainable future? This article examines the presentations made during the symposium and draws upon them to explore opportunities for sustainability scientists to help meet this challenge. The paper is divided into three parts: Part I provides a brief introduction that places the symposium in context of current debates on sustainability science and discusses (a) the role of UNESCO and (b) the relevance of sustainability science to policy- and decision-making for sustainable development. Part II examines three steps that can be taken now to overcome barriers to sustainability and the role of sustainability science in each (a) building societal and environmental resilience; (b) increasing collaboration across geographical and disciplinary boundaries as well as between scientists and decision-makers; and (c) enhancing education for sustainable development (ESD). The paper concludes with a review of why these keys are essential and steps that can be taken in the future to facilitate their widespread application at multiple scales.     

Problems of cross-scale coastal management in Scandinavia

Transdisciplinary knowledge integration and cross-scale management remain challenges in coastal management after several decades of research and experience with integrated and sustainable coastal management. The aim of this paper is to identify requirements for knowledge integration and development of multi-scale approaches to coastal management through reviewing and re-analysing three Swedish-European research projects: the SUCOZOMA project about sustainable coastal zone management, the FRAP project about conflicts between coastal fishery and species protection, and the SECOA project about solutions to contrasts in coastal metropolitan areas. The strategy of adaptive governance is considered in the light of its ability to assess knowledge requirements for sustainable resource management under conditions of climate change.     

Trends in seasonal precipitation and temperature in Slovenia during 1951–2007

A quality-controlled and enhanced database of 38 temperature and 52 precipitation stations was developed for Slovenia, a transitional area between Mediterranean, Alpine and continental climatic regimes, covering the period 1951–2007. Mean annual temperatures significantly increased in nearly all of Slovenia (except western areas) at rates between 0.15 and 0.36 °C/decade. Warming was most intense strongest in summer and spring in north-eastern Slovenia (0.3–0.4 °C/decade) and weakest in autumn. Precipitation trends were heterogeneous. Annual precipitation decreased significantly in the north-western part, at 3–6 % per decade. During spring and summer, decrease in rainfall by 3–6 % was detected in western Slovenia. No significant trends were found for the autumn season. In winter, precipitation decreased, by 3–12 % per decade, in particular in north-western Slovenia. As observed also elsewhere in Central Europe, changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns may have contributed to the observed long-term warming and drying in Slovenia. However, the strong warming in summer and spring, that is almost twice the trend observed in neighbouring countries, could be enhanced by drier soils caused by the decrease in winter precipitation in Slovenia.     

The contribution of the sciences,technology and innovation to sustainable development: the application of sustainability science from the perspective of UNESCO’s experience

The contribution of scientific knowledge and innovation to sustainability is demonstrated. Theory, discoveries, programmes and activities in both the natural as well as social sciences fields have greatly helped with the environmental, economic and social challenges of the past and current centuries, especially in the past 50 years or so. Nowadays, we increasingly realize the intimate link between science and society, and the need not only for science to inform policy but also to address requests by governments and the multiple stakeholders confronted with the challenge to achieve sustainable development. Current barriers to how science is conceived and related education is delivered hamper true interdisciplinarity, and the emerging field of sustainability science attempts inter alia to clarify how ‘a new generation of science’ can be designed so as to promote more integrated thinking to tackle complex societal issues. At the international level, and more specifically in the context of the United Nations, the practice of science has always entailed the need to solve problems such as climate change, ozone depletion, disaster risk, lack of food security, biodiversity loss, social instability and ineffective governance—to cite a few. In this regard, science in an intergovernmental context is by definition science that has to assist with the struggle for sustainability. Yet, a higher level of integration and cross-fertilization among disciplines as well as of participation among concerned stakeholders in the design and implementation of science-based programmes and activities carried out by the United Nations (and, in this article, the specific case of its Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization—UNESCO—is presented) seems to be needed. The debate on sustainability science carried out in the academic circle and the experience of UNESCO in this area can be mutually supportive in further elucidating how, practically, the approach of sustainability science can enhance the achievement of sustainable development at multiple scales.     

Critical reflections on a systems approach application in practice: a Baltic lagoon case study

This paper contributes to our understanding of the challenges faced when seeking to apply systemic, integration concepts in ‘arenas of practice’. It takes a critical look at the application of the systems-based SPICOSA Project in the region of the Oder (Szczecin) Lagoon, which forms the border between Germany and Poland. The paper highlights a range of place-based and temporal-based factors, which need careful consideration when adopting systems-based approaches to Integrated Coastal Zone Management and makes a series of recommendations for how such approaches might be approved. The experience within the study site was that challenges relating to scale, in one of its many facets, strongly influenced abilities to integrate within the systemic approach. Our view is that cross-scale issues and multi-level challenges can be thought of as one of the dominant factors controlling the successfulness of system approaches to managing complex environments.     

Assessment of adoption and impact of rainwater harvesting technologies on rural farm household income: the case of rainwater harvesting ponds in Rwanda

Rainwater harvesting is increasingly viewed as a major strategy for enhancing agricultural productivity and boosting farm income in many drought-prone areas. While this technology is being promoted in many developing countries, there is conflicting evidence in the literature about its impact on welfare of farm households. This study uses propensity score matching and discrete choice regression techniques to assess the impact of rainwater harvesting ponds on farm household income and factors that influence adoption of such technologies in Rwanda. It finds that households with rainwater harvesting ponds have significantly higher income than their counterparts of comparable observable characteristics. It further finds evidence that increase in farm income occurs via increased input use and that household size, asset endowments and participation in farmer organizations condition adoption of rainwater harvesting ponds. The study concludes that adoption of rainwater harvesting technologies has positive benefits on farm households. It discusses the policy implications that adoption of rainwater harvesting ponds presents a pathway for reducing rural poverty.     

Change in a butterfly community on a gradually overgrowing site

Monitoring of day-active butterflies by water pan traps method over the period 2001–2012 was conducted on a gradually overgrowing habitat in Ko?ick? kotlina basin (Slovakia). Totally, 1457 individuals of 57 species of butterflies were caught and evaluated. Monitoring revealed significant changes in the butterfly community which might be a consequence of a gradual overgrown of the study area. During the research, 12 butterfly species have disappeared from the study area. The monitoring provided results which point to the necessity of appropriate management for conservation of rare and protected butterfly species.     

Achieving the promise of transdisciplinarity: a critical exploration of the relationship between transdisciplinary research and societal problem solving

Transdisciplinarity is often presented as a way to effectively use scientific research to contribute to societal problem solving for sustainability. The aim of this paper is to critically explore this statement. This is done in two ways. First, a literature survey of transdisciplinary research is used to identify the assumptions that underlie the positive relationship between transdisciplinarity and societal problem solving for sustainability. This mapping identifies the claim that in-depth participation of users and the integration of relevant knowledge from both practice and research in real-world problem contexts produce socially robust results that contribute to sustainability. Second, the ability to live up to this claim is presented and discussed in five case study projects from Mistra Urban Futures, a transdisciplinary center in Göteborg, Sweden. The conclusions show that transdisciplinary processes, which fulfill the above conditions, do produce different types of socially robust knowledge, but this does not necessarily result in the ability to influence change in a sustainable direction. This instead creates a paradox in that the participation of stakeholders and the integration of knowledge from diverse sources require spaces that are both embedded in and insulated from practice and science proper. Such spaces produce results that are not easily aligned with sector-based target groups and formal policy processes. Institutionalizing transdisciplinarity in a boundary organization therefore solves some problems regarding participation and balanced problem ownership. However, it also creates new, hybrid problems, regarding knowledge transfer and scalability, which bridge the boundaries and challenge the praxis of planning and policy making.     

Significant rainfall decreases and variations of the atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean (1950–2000)

This paper aims at identifying the link between significant rainfall decreases (1950–2000) in the Mediterranean basin and the atmospheric circulation at the 500 hPa level. The months and seasons of the subregions with significant rainfall decrease during this period have been identified previously (Norrant and Douguédroit, Theor Appl Climatol 83(1–4):89–106, 2006): October in the Mediterranean Iberia, March in the Atlantic Iberia, January and winter in Greece, and winter in the Near East. Canonical Correlation Analyses based on the monthly and daily data records from 62 rainfall stations and 138 grid points at the 500 hPa level over a Euro-Atlantic window were first calculated to define the TeleConnection Patterns explaining significant regional rainfall decreases. Then, 500 hPa level weather types (ZWTs) of the rainy days with important or little rainfall associated with each Teleconnection Pattern were identified in each subregion. Rainfall-causing disturbances from the Atlantic reach Iberia directly; some of them are regenerated if they reach the Mediterranean. Other disturbances are generated locally near Greece and the Near East (Meteorological Office in Weather in the Mediterranean I: general meteorology, Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, London, 1962). The relationship between significant rainfall decreases and the corresponding 500 hPa level appears to be a nonlinear phenomenon. In all of the studied subregions, a break during the 1970s separates two subperiods differing significantly from each other. Rainfall decrease is due to the higher frequency of important rainfall ZWTs over low rainfall ZWTs, during the first period, which the opposite is true during the second period. Such an inversion could be partially linked with the prevailing North Atlantic Oscillation-positive phase during the last quarter of the twentieth century.     

Transhumant pastoralism,sustainable management of natural resources and endemic ruminant livestock in the sub-humid zone of West Africa

Transhumant pastoralism is one of the dominant livestock production systems in West Africa, and it is characterized by seasonal and cyclical movement of varying degrees between complementary ecological areas. The common pattern of transhumance is moving herds from areas with pasture and water scarcity such as the Sahelian zone to areas where the forage and water are found, often in the sub-humid zone. Whereas the transhumant herds from the Sahel are mainly Zebu breeds, endemic ruminant livestock (ERL) are the dominant breeds in sub-humid zone of West Africa because of their tolerance to tsetse-borne trypanosomosis disease. These livestock fulfill different functions in the livelihood of rural communities in the region. To identify potential areas of interventions for sustainable natural resource management to improve ERL productivity, a desk study that included spatial mapping was performed to review and document the existing knowledge on transhumance in West Africa. Additionally, group discussions were held to analyze the (actual or potential) effects of transhumant herds on natural resource management and ERL in the sub-humid zone. This study covered sub-humid zone in The Gambia, Guinea, Mali and Senegal. The key question we addressed in this study was as follows: What are the key trends and changes in transhumant pastoralism and how do these impact sustainable management of natural resources including endemic livestock? The results of the desk study and group discussions showed that there have been more southerly movements by transhumant pastoralists into the sub-humid zone over the past three decades and this has contributed to growing competition for grazing resources. The presence of transhumant herds in the sub-humid zone has a potential impact on management and conservation of ERL through crossbreeding with transhumant Zebu breeds from the Sahel but only study sites in Mali showed a high risk.     

Community attitudes toward forest conservation programs through collaborative protected area management in Bangladesh

The formulation of conservation policies with options for creating protected areas is significantly influenced by the social factors of the surrounding communities. Therefore, indigenous knowledge, attitudes and perceptions of the local communities need to be explored during the planning and implementation stages of conservation projects. A government-initiated experiment in co-management was conducted in the Rema-Kalenga Wildlife Sanctuary, Bangladesh. This paper analyzes the attitudes toward conservation by members of local communities living in and around the wildlife sanctuary. Training incentives on alternative income-generating (AIG) activities and allotment of agricultural lands were distributed among the Forest User Groups. It is of interest to policy makers and resource managers whether this technique leads to improved attitudes on the part of local people. Although there were different attitudes toward protected areas and conservation, overall, a favorable attitude of the respondents was observed. The opinions of respondents also varied based on factors such as village position, village dependency level on forest resources, ethnicity and gender. Increase in annual income resulting from the augmented skills by trainings on AIG activities and getting agricultural lands leased from the Forest Department contributed significantly to the variation in respondents’ conservation attitudes. It is suggested that eliminating inequity and inequality in incentive distribution, discovering and launching training on more need-based livelihood activities, and liberalizing the restriction of resource extraction from the protected area by fixing the harvesting limit would encourage the community to be more cordially and actively involved in the conservation efforts of the sanctuary.     

Testing instrumental and downscaled reanalysis time series for temperature trends in NE of Spain in the last century

In the context of climatic temperature studies, more often than not a time series is affected by artificial inhomogeneities. To overcome such limitation, we propose a new simple methodology in which promising results point not only toward the detection of unknown inhomogeneous periods but also toward the possibility of reconstructing the uncertain portion of the series. It is based on a parsimonious statistical downscaling (Multiple Linear Regression) of the large-scale 20CR reanalysis data. This method is successfully applied upon two long-range temperature series from a couple of centennial observatories (Ebre and Fabra, NE of Spain) which do not have nearby suitable temperature series to compare with. Results of trend analysis point to a clear signal of warming, with a larger rate of increase for the maximum temperature (respect to the minimum one), for the more recent decades (respect to the whole available period), and for the original series (respect to the reconstructed ones).     

Seasonal changes in daily precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal from 1941 to 2007

This study aims mostly at understanding seasonal variations in the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation events in mainland Portugal. For this purpose, selected precipitation indices that mainly focus on extremes were calculated at the seasonal scale for daily data recorded in the period 1941–2007 at 57 meteorological stations scattered across the area. These indices were explored for trends at the local and regional levels. The results show that there are marked changes in precipitation indices at the seasonal scale. Trends in spring and autumn precipitation have opposite signals. In spring, statistically significant drying trends are found together with a reduction in extremes. In autumn, wetting trends are detected for all indices, although overall they are not significant at the 5 % level. In addition, the relationship between seasonal extreme precipitation indices and atmospheric large-scale modes of low-frequency variability is analysed by means of a seasonal correlation analysis. Four modes of low-frequency variability are explored. Results confirm that, over mainland Portugal, the North Atlantic Oscillation is one of the most important teleconnection patterns in any season and the mode of variability that has the greatest influence on precipitation extremes in the area, particularly in the winter and autumn.     

Energy, environment and growth nexus in South Asia

The present study investigates the energy, environment and growth nexus for a panel of South Asian countries including Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal. The simultaneous analysis of real GDP, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions is conducted for the period 1980–2010. Levin panel unit root test and Im test panel unit root both indicate that all the variables are I (1). In addition, Kao’s panel Cointegration test specifies a stable long-term relationship between all these variables. Empirical findings show that a 1 % increase in energy consumption increases output by 0.81 % in long run whereas for the same increase in CO₂ emission output falls by 0.17 % in long run. Panel Granger causality tests report short-run causality running from energy consumption to CO₂ emissions and from CO₂ emissions to GDP.     

Present and future climate resources for various types of tourism in the Bay of Palma,Spain

The Bay of Palma, in Mallorca, is a leading region for beach holidays in Europe. It is based on a mass tourism model strongly modulated by seasonality and with high environmental costs. Main tourism stakeholders are currently implementing complementary activities to mitigate seasonality, regardless of climate change. But climate is—and will remain—a key resource or even a limitation for many types of tourism. Assessing the present conditions and exploring the future evolution of climate potential for these activities have become a priority in this area. To this end, the climate index for tourism (CIT)—originally designed to rate the climate resource of beach tourism—is adapted to specifically appraise cycling, cultural tourism, football, golf, motor boating, sailing and hiking. Climate resources are derived by using observed and projected daily meteorological data. Projections have been obtained from a suite of Regional Climate Models run under the A1B emissions scenario. To properly derive CITs at such local scale, we apply a statistical adjustment. Present climate potentials ratify the appropriateness of the Bay of Palma for satisfactorily practicing all the examined activities. However, optimal conditions are projected to degrade during the peak visitation period while improving in spring and autumn. That is, climate change could further exacerbate the present imbalance between the seasonal distributions of ideal climate potentials and high attendance levels. With this information at hand, policy makers and regional tourism stakeholders can respond more effectively to the great challenge of local adaptation to climate change.     

Teleconnections,midlatitude cyclones and Aegean Sea turbulent heat flux variability on daily through decadal time scales

We analyze daily wintertime cyclone variability in the central and eastern Mediterranean during 1958–2001 and identify four distinct “cyclone states,” corresponding to the presence or absence of cyclones in each basin. Each cyclone state is associated with wind flows that induce characteristic patterns of cooling via turbulent (sensible and latent) heat fluxes in the eastern Mediterranean basin and Aegean Sea. The relative frequency of occurrence of each state determines the heat loss from the Aegean Sea during that winter, with largest heat losses occurring when there is a storm in the eastern but not central Mediterranean (eNOTc) and the smallest occurring when there is a storm in the central but not eastern Mediterranean (cNOTe). Time series of daily cyclone states for each winter allow us to infer Aegean Sea cooling for winters prior to 1985, the earliest year for which we have daily heat flux observations. We show that cyclone states conducive to Aegean Sea convection occurred in 1991/1992 and 1992/1993, the winters during which deepwater formation was observed in the Aegean Sea, and also during the mid-1970s and the winters of 1963/1964 and 1968/1969. We find that the eNOTc cyclone state is anticorrelated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) prior to 1977/1978. After 1977/1978, the cNOTe state is anticorrelated with both the NAO and the North Caspian Pattern, showing that the area of influence of large-scale atmospheric teleconnections on regional cyclone activity shifted from the eastern to the central Mediterranean during the late 1970s. A trend toward more frequent occurrence of the positive phase of the NAO produced less frequent cNOTe states since the late 1970s, increasing the number of days with strong cooling of the Aegean Sea surface waters.     

Energy consumption,emissions and economic growth in Bahrain

This study examines the Granger causality relationships between economic growth, energy consumption and emissions, from 1980 to 2007 in Bahrain, controlling for capital and urban population using Toda and Yamamoto’s approach. It was found that there is unilateral causality which runs from urban population, economic growth, capital and energy consumption to environment. Further, we found strong support for causality running from economic growth to energy consumption, emissions and capital. The existence of these linkages suggests that the government of Bahrain may pursue energy efficiency strategies and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth. Additionally, the long run pursuit of high economic growth given sustained increases in energy efficiency may also reduce CO₂ emissions intensity per unit of her GDP.     

The win-win pathway of economic growth and CO2 emission reduction: a case study for China

ABSTRACT

Continuously reducing the CO₂ intensity of GDP is the core strategy for developing countries to realize the dual targets of economic growth and CO₂ emissions reduction. The measures are twofold: one is to strengthen energy saving and decrease energy intensity of GDP and the other is to promote energy structural decarbonization and reduce CO₂ intensity of energy consumption. In order to control global temperature rise no more than 2°C, the decrease in CO₂ intensity of GDP needs surpass 4% before 2030, but it could be merely about 2% based on the current trend. Therefore, all countries ought to speed up the low-carbon transition in energy and economy. As for China, keeping a continuous decline in CO₂ intensity of GDP of 4%–5% will ensure the realization of the NDC objectives, and also promotes the early peaking of CO₂ emissions before 2030. China will play a positive leading role in realizing a win-win low-carbon development coordinating sustainable development and climate change mitigation.     

21,000 Years of Ethiopian African monsoon variability recorded in sediments of the western Nile deep-sea fan

The Nile delta sedimentation constitutes a continuous high-resolution record of Ethiopian African monsoon (EAM) regime intensity. Multi-proxy analyses performed on hemipelagic sediments deposited on the Nile deep-sea fan allow the quantification of the Saharan aeolian dust and the Blue/White Nile River suspended matter frequency fluctuations during the last 21,000 years. The radiogenic strontium and neodymium isotopes, clay mineralogy, elemental composition and preliminary palynological analyses reveal large changes in source components, oscillating between a dominant aeolian Saharan contribution during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the late Holocene (~4,000–2,000 years), a dominant Blue/Atbara Nile River contribution during the early Holocene (15,000–8,000 years) and a probable White Nile River contribution during the middle Holocene (8,000–4,000 years). The following main features are highlighted: (1) The rapid shift from the LGM arid conditions to the African Humid Period (AHP) started at about 15,000 years. The AHP extends until 8,000 years, and we suggest that the EAM maximum between 15,000 and 8,000 years is responsible for a larger Blue/Atbara Nile sediment load and freshwater input into the eastern Mediterranean Sea. (2) The transition between the AHP and the arid late Holocene is gradual and occurs in two main phases between 8,400–6,500 years and 6,500–3,200 years. We suggest that the main rain belt shifted southward from 8,000 to ~4,000 years and was responsible for progressively reduced sediment load and freshwater input into the eastern Mediterranean Sea. (3) The aridification along the Nile catchments occurred from ~4,000 to 2,000 years. This dry period, which culminates at 3,200 year, seems to coincide with a re-establishment of increased oceanic primary productivity in the western Mediterranean Sea. Such a pattern imposes a large and rapid northward shift of the rain belt over the Ethiopian highlands (5–15°N) since 15,000 years. Precipitation over Ethiopia increased from 15,000 to 8,000 years. It was followed by a gradual southward shift of the rain belt over the equator from 8,000 to 4,000 years and finally a large shift of the rain belt south the equator between 4,000 and 2,000 years inducing North African aridification. We postulate that the decrease in thermohaline water Mediterranean circulation could be part of a response to huge volumes of freshwater delivered principally by the Nile River from 15,000 to 8,000 years in the eastern Mediterranean.     

NEWS

Abstract

Co-integration theory has been employed in this paper and Granger causes are found between urbanization rate and GDP, between capital stock and GDP. Scenario analysis of GDP is performed using the GDP model established in the paper. The energy consumptions in Germany, Japan and other developed countries are analyzed and compared with the energy consumption in China. Environmental friendly scenario of energy demand and CO₂ emissions for sustainable China has been formed based on the results of comparison. Under environmental friendly scenario, the primary energy consumption will be 4.31 billion ton coal equivalence (tce) and CO₂ emissions will be 1.854 billion t-c in 2050; energy per capital will be 3.06 tce that is 1.8 times of energy consumed in 2005 in China and 51% of consumed energy per capital in Japan in 2003. In 2050, the energy requirement of unit GDP will be 20% lower than that of Germany in 2003, but will be still 37% higher than that in Japan in 2003. It is certain that to fulfill the environmental friendly Scenario of energy demand and CO₂ emissions is a difficult task and it needs long term efforts of the whole society, not only in production sectors but also in service and household sectors.