Delineating protected wildlife corridors with multi‐objective programming

Protected wildlife corridors can help counteract habitat fragmentation and link isolated reserve “islands” into connected reserve systems. The need for wildlife corridors will grow as expanding human populations place increasing pressure on remaining undeveloped land. A two‐objective zero–one programming model is formulated for the problem of selecting land for a system of wildlife corridors that must connect a known set of existing reserves or critical habitat areas. This problem is modeled as a network Steiner tree problem, under the objectives of minimizing corridor land costs and minimizing the amount of unsuitable land within the corridor system. Linear programming is used to find exact solutions with little or no branching and bounding, and the multi‐objective weighting method is used to generate non‐inferior alternatives. Two hypothetical examples demonstrate the model and solution procedure. Results can help inform planning and decision making for protected area land acquisition and habitat restoration.     

Integrating Land Market Feedbacks into Conservation Planning—A Mathematical Programming Approach

Nature reserves are often designated ad hoc. Despite increasing conservation efforts, loss of biodiversity is still accelerating. Considering land scarcity and demand for alternative uses, efficiency in conservation strongly correlates with efficiency in land allocation. Systematic conservation planning can effectively prioritize conservation activities. Previous studies minimize opportunity costs for given conservation targets. However, these studies assume constant marginal costs of habitat protection. We extend this cost minimization approach by also considering a dynamic representation of marginal costs. The more land is allocated to nature reserves, the higher are opportunity costs, i.e., costs of forgone agricultural production. This increase in costs results from changes in the prices of agricultural commodities. We employ a deterministic, spatially explicit mathematical optimization model to allocate species habitats by minimizing opportunity costs for setting aside land for conservation purposes. The model is designed as a mixed integer programming problem and solved with GAMS/CPLEX. Our results show the need for integrating land market feedbacks into conservation planning. We find that ignoring land rent adjustments can lead to highly cost-ineffective solutions in reserve selection.     

A Data-Based Conservation Planning Tool for Florida Panthers

Habitat loss and fragmentation are the greatest threats to the endangered Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi). We developed a data-based habitat model and user-friendly interface so that land managers can objectively evaluate Florida panther habitat. We used a geographic information system (GIS) and the Mahalanobis distance statistic (D ²) to develop a model based on broad-scale landscape characteristics associated with panther home ranges. Variables in our model were Euclidean distance to natural land cover, road density, distance to major roads, human density, amount of natural land cover, amount of semi-natural land cover, amount of permanent or semi-permanent flooded area–open water, and a cost–distance variable. We then developed a Florida Panther Habitat Estimator tool, which automates and replicates the GIS processes used to apply the statistical habitat model. The estimator can be used by persons with moderate GIS skills to quantify effects of land-use changes on panther habitat at local and landscape scales. Example applications of the tool are presented.     

Using an Allowance Reserve to Manage Uncertain Costs in a Cap-and-Trade Program for Greenhouse Gases

This paper investigates the design and performance of an allowance reserve in the context of a cap-and-trade program for greenhouse gases. We use a Monte Carlo approach in which the parameters of the marginal abatement cost function, and the supply of offsets, are drawn from specified distributions. Our framework focuses on the potential impact of “medium-run shocks” to abatement cost and offset supply, as opposed to either short-run volatility or permanent shifts in the cost curve. Our model suggests that under reasonable (and even fairly conservative) assumptions about abatement cost and offset supply, an allowance reserve broadly similar to recent proposals for US climate legislation can be effective in containing allowance prices. In our core policy scenario, with a trigger price equal to US $32 in 2015, we estimate that the probability of drawing on the allowance reserve is <25% and the probability of requiring more than 7?GT of reserve tons over 20?years is <5%. We also use the model to explore the trade-off among three features of the reserve that are most relevant to policy makers: the total size of the reserve, the trigger price, and the degree of confidence that the reserve will be large enough to limit allowance prices to the target level. Our essential result is that a lower trigger price, or a higher degree of confidence, requires a larger reserve.     

Exploring Environmental and Economic Trade-offs Associated with Aggregate Recycling from Decommissioned Forest Roads

Forest road decommissioning is a pro-active mechanism for preventing future habitat degradation and for increasing the likelihood of endangered salmonid survival in the western U.S. High implementation costs however preclude many desirable projects from being undertaken, especially on federally owned land. Previous research and real-world applications have demonstrated the cost savings potential of reusing aggregate recovered from forest roads during decommissioning. These cost savings can effectively subsidize decommissioning projects, suggesting an economic benefit associated with improving environmental benefit. We present a mixed integer, multiple objective formulation to identify the efficient trade-off surface between conflicting economic and environmental criteria, where environmental benefit is defined as the hazard weighted length of roads decommissioned. We compare nondominated frontiers identified with and without the opportunity to recycle aggregate. Our results suggest that aggregate recycling promotes a synergistic relationship between cost savings (subsidy) and environmental performance, where subsidies generally increase with increasing environmental performance. Effective subsidy values can reach 31% of total expenditure, at the maximum level of environmental benefit. Transportation managers are therefore able to recover and reuse a nonrenewable resource, while at the same time promoting economic and environmental efficiency.     

Natural and anthropogenic influences on a red-crowned crane habitat in the Yellow River Delta Natural Reserve, 1992–2008

This study aims to assess the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic variables on the change of the red-crowned crane habitat in the Yellow River Nature Reserve, East China using multitempopral remote sensing and geographic information system. Satellite images were used to detect the change in potential crane habitat, from which suitable crane habitat was determined by excluding fragmented habitat. In this study, a principal component analysis (PCA) with seven variables (channel flow, rainfall, temperature, sediment discharge, number of oil wells, total length of roads, and area of settlements) and linear regression analyses of potential and suitable habitat against the retained principal components were applied to explore the influences of natural and anthropogenic factors on the change of the red-crowned crane habitat. The experimental results indicate that suitable habitat decreased by 5,935 ha despite an increase of 1,409 ha in potential habitat from 1992 to 2008. The area of crane habitat changed caused by natural drivers such as progressive succession, retrogressive succession, and physical fragmentation is almost the same as that caused by anthropogenic forces such as land use change and behavioral fragmentation. The PCA and regression analyses revealed that natural factors (e.g., channel flow, rainfall, temperature, and sediment discharge) play an important role in the crane potential habitat change and human disturbances (e.g., oil wells, roads, and settlements) jointly explain 51.8 % of the variations in suitable habitat area, higher than 48.2 % contributed by natural factors. Thus, it is vital to reduce anthropogenic influences within the reserve in order to reverse the decline in the suitable crane habitat.     

Reserve Design to Maximize Species Persistence

We develop a reserve design strategy to maximize the probability of species persistence predicted by a stochastic, individual-based, metapopulation model. Because the population model does not fit exact optimization procedures, our strategy involves deriving promising solutions from theory, obtaining promising solutions from a simulation optimization heuristic, and determining the best of the promising solutions using a multiple-comparison statistical test. We use the strategy to address a problem of allocating limited resources to new and existing reserves. The best reserve design depends on emigration, dispersal mortality, and probabilities of movement between reserves. When movement probabilities are symmetric, the best design is to expand a subset of reserves to equal size to exhaust the habitat budget. When movement probabilities are not symmetric, the best design does not expand reserves to equal size and is strongly affected by movement probabilities and emigration rates. We use commercial simulation software to obtain our results.     

Applying parcel-specific land-use data for improved monitoring of semi-natural grassland in Denmark

A major obstacle to the conservation and management of semi-natural grassland (SNG) is the general lack of consistent and precise maps showing the extent and quality of this habitat type. SNG is related to, and influenced by, agricultural land use. Both intensive land use as well as a lack of extensive land use can reduce the extent and quality of SNG. For Denmark, this paper demonstrates how parcel-specific land-use data can be applied to detect localities with spatial convergences and conflicts between SNG and agricultural land use. Based on their respective influence on SNG, land use is aggregated into five major classes and spatially overlaid with existing nationally registered SNG. Results show that almost 11 % of all SNG is mapped either on cropped land or on rotational grassland, indicating a conflict between mapped SNG and land use. Thirty percent of SNG is mapped outside any agricultural land use, pointing to a lack of management. Fifty nine percent of SNG is mapped either on land receiving payments for grazing/mowing or on other land under extensive management, indicating a convergence between SNG and land use. Finally, 30 % of land receiving payments for grazing/mowing and 62 % of other land under extensive management does not contain any semi-natural habitat. Potential, as yet unmapped, SNG might exist in these localities. Based on these results it is argued that the application of parcel-specific land-use data could significantly improve monitoring of SNG.     

Spatio-temporal pattern and rationality of land reclamation and cropland abandonment in mid-eastern Inner Mongolia of China in 1990�C2005

The Mid-eastern Inner Mongolia of China, a typical agro-pastoral transitional zone, has undergone rapid agricultural land use changes including land reclamation and cropland abandonment in past decades due to growing population and food demand, climatic variability, and land use policy such as the "Grain for Green" Project (GFG Project). It is significant to the regional ecology and sustainability to examine the pattern and its rationality of land use change. The processes of land reclamation and cropland abandonment were accessed by using land use change dataset for four periods of 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2005, derived from the interpretation of Landsat TM images. And then the rationality of land reclamation and cropland abandonment was analyzed based on the habitat suitability for cultivation. The results indicated that: (1) land reclamation was the dominant form of agricultural land use change from 1990 to 2005, the total cropland area increased from 64,954.64 km(2) in 1990 to 76,258.51 km(2) in 2005; However, the speed of land reclamation decreased while cropland abandonment increased around 2000. The Land Reclamation Degree decreased from 1995-2000 to 2000-2005, meanwhile, Cropland Abandonment Degree increased. (2) As for the habitat suitability levels, moderately and marginally suitable levels had largest areas where cropland was widespread. Pattern of agricultural land use trended to become more rational due to the decrease of land reclamation area in low suitable levels and the increase of cropland abandonment in unsuitable area after 2000. (3) The habitat suitability-based rationality analysis of agricultural land use implicated that the GFG Project should take cultivation habitat suitability assessment into account.     

Marine Reserve Design with Ocean Currents and Multiple Objectives

There is a growing tendency to consider marine reserves as a management and conservation tool. We investigate a spatial bio-economic model to determine fishery profits under conservation efforts. Rather than imposing a marine reserve on our model, we ask, “When and where should a marine reserve be implemented ?” For one-dimensional habitat, we determine conditions under which marine reserves emerge as a part of the optimal policy. Depending upon the size of the habitat, the optimal strategy is either to avoid fishing or to fish at maximum rate. The effect of ocean currents is analyzed through numerical simulations. We find that in the presence of strong currents, a marine reserve may become ineffective. If the currents are at low rate, a marine reserve could emerge as a variable management tool.