长三角空气质量区域预报准确性评估方法研究

根据长三角空气质量区域预报工作的实际需要,对分区文字预报和落区图预报两种方式分别制定了不同的空气质量指数级别预报准确性评估方法。分区文字预报根据设定的预报准确性判定方法计算预报评分,落区图预报按区域内预报准确城市占比进行准确率统计。分区文字预报结果显示,2017年长三角区域的预报准确天数占比为62.2%,预报评分为70.2,区域预报评估效果良好。落区图预报评估结果显示,预报级别偏差具有地域性差异,安徽北部、江苏北部和江西中北部预报等级偏高,长三角中南部沿海城市预报等级偏低。该套评估方法可为区域空气质量预报偏差成因分析提供依据,为区域预报工作的改进提供定量参考。     

Lichens as a useful mapping tool?—an approach to assess atmospheric N loads in Germany by total N content and stable isotope signature

To assess whether nitrogen (N) content and δ¹⁵N ratios in nitrophytic lichen species (Xanthoria parietina (L.) Th. Fr. (1860) and Physcia spp. (Schreb.) Michaux (1803)) reflect the quantity and quality of atmospheric N loads, 348 lichen samples from 174 sampling grid cells were investigated in the western part of Germany. The analysed lichen N content ranged between 0.98 and 4.28 % and δ¹⁵N ratios between ?15.2 and ?1.3?‰. Based on the N concentrations and the δ¹⁵N ratios of lichens, different landscape categories and coupled N deposition rates could be inferred for different regions of Germany. By analysing environmental variables like altitude, ammonia emission density, livestock unit and different defined deposition types, a direct relationship was found between lichen chemistry and N compounds produced from agricultural activity. The results support the development of a monitoring method which could be used nationally or even internationally to support current N deposition measurements, by providing reliable information on the quantity and quality of N deposition in high N environments.     

Diversity of epiphytic lichens and metal contents of Parmelia caperata thalli as monitors of air pollution in the town of Pistoia (c Italy)

The results of a biomonitoring survey carried out in the town of Pistoia (central Italy) using the biodiversity of epiphytic lichens and the accumulation of heavy metals in thalli of Parmelia caperata as indicators of air pollution are reported. Compared to previous surveys, the overall situation generally improved, with higher lichen diversity at most stations and lower metal concentrations in P. caperata thalli. However, the general picture according to a calibrated scale of environmental naturality/alteration was substantially negative, with about 87% of the study area classified as `altered' (including the lichen desert) or `semi-altered'. To explain this apparent contradiction, it has been suggested that lichen colonization is determined by declining SO₂ concentrations, while major injuries to lichen communities are caused by the constantly high levels of NO_X. In spite of the low levels of Pb measured in P. caperata thalli, vehicular traffic was excluded as the main source of atmospheric pollution. Domestic heating seems to be the main cause of changes in the diversity of epiphytic lichens in the study area.     

Decrease in air pollution load in urban environment of Bratislava (Slovakia) inferred from accumulation of metal elements in lichens

The study illustrates the response of epiphytic lichens to changing atmospheric conditions in Central Europe, where the emission of air pollutants has significantly decreased from 1990, in the area in and around Bratislava City. Variation in concentrations of seven metal elements (Cu, Cd, Cr, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn) in the thalli of Evernia prunastri, Hypogymnia physodes and Parmelia sulcata is assessed. Samples of these species were exposed in lichen bags in 39 sites throughout the territory of the city (more than 300 km(2)) during the period December 2006-February 2007. The samples were analyzed by AAS for metal element contents prior to and after exposure. The decrease in air pollution (for all studied elements by more than 90%) corresponded to a decrease in the accumulation of elements in lichen thalli, e.g. the contents of Pb decreased by 69% and of Cd by 34% on average. The results show also variations in accumulation between with different lichen species. The background values of metal element contents in thalli of H. physodes growing in situ were measured in semi-natural sites in Slovakia. It is suggested that these can be used as a reference in large-scale monitoring studies in Central Europe. Analysis of compatible data from the current study, and the study performed at the end of 1990s shows a significant decrease of metal elements in the air pollution load.     

GC/MS内标法测定土壤中多环芳烃的质量控制

阐述了GC/MS内标法测定土壤中多环芳烃时质量控制的基本内容、基本方法和基本操作。测定结果为：空白分析结果均小于检出限;空白加标精密度和准确度分别在7.80%~25.2%和49.2%~96.6%之间;样品加标精密度和准确度分别在7.77%~19.8%和67.2%~122%之间;检出限在0.05~0.08 mg/kg之间...     

2016年秋季新乡市空气质量模式预报效果评估

基于新乡市空气质量数值预报平台，采用相关系数（r）、标准化平均偏差（NMB）等统计指标，系统评估2016年秋季新乡市嵌套网格空气质量预报模式（NAQPMS）和通用多尺度空气质量模式（CMAQ）的预报效果，对比分析2套模式不同预报时效和不同水平分辨率的空气质量等级预报准确率。结果显示：2套模式均较好地表征了各主要污染物的浓度变化特征，2套模式的等级预报准确率高于60%，其中CMAQ对中度及重度的预报等级准确率达到70%。对比模式24、48、72 h 3种预报时效效果，24 h预报时效的统计数据最优，说明24 h预报时效模拟结果可作为业务预报重要的支撑。     

基于CFSv2的延伸期空气质量数值预报技术及效果评估

介绍了基于CFSv2产品开展空气质量数值模拟的技术方法以及基于该技术的成都市延伸期空气质量预报系统,评价了2019年9月25日至12月25日的预报结果,以2019年12月为例分析了系统对具体污染过程的预报能力。结果表明,系统AQI预报准确率为36.67%,等级预报准确率为68.93%,"时段1"的预报效果优于其余时段,但"时段2"和"时段3"在污染物浓度水平上仍然具有较高的参考价值。系统在PM2.5浓度、气温和气压的变化趋势上提供21 d左右的参考。后续工作中,将针对CFSv2产品开展气象模型参数方案优选,并尝试结合基于GFS产品驱动的常规业务数值预报产品为延伸期空气质量预报提供污染物浓度初始场,减少误差传递,从而提高延伸期空气质量预报产品的准确性和可用性。     

The ability of biological and organic synthetic materials to accumulate atmospheric particulates containing copper, lead, nickel and strontium

This work was aimed at finding materials that could be used as alternatives to lichens as air quality monitors since the high natural variability and the large amount of lichen collected are two drawbacks of the use of these organisms. Lichen Flavoparmelia caperata(L.) Hale was exposed in three different forms (transplant, detached from the substratum and as a biomass-ground and homogeneized) and compared to the planetree bark (Platanus hybrida Brot.), exposed as a biomass, and two organic synthetic materials (Chelex(R) 100 resin and cellulose acetate). Materials were exposed for two months in the winter, spring and summer, at three Portuguese coastal cities. The results showed that the airborne accumulations of Cu, Ni, Pb and Sr were partially dependent on the meteorological conditions but mainly dependent on the nature of the exposed material. The standard deviations of the synthetic materials or homogenized biomass were the same or greater than lichen transplants or detached. The accumulation by biological materials, of the four studied elements, was comparable to the lichen transplant accumulation. The replacement of the traditional transplants by the biomass was not considered advantageous, since their preparation is time-consuming. Therefore lichens remain the most suitable in biomonitoring studies. The exposure of detached lichen allows the accurate measurement of the exposed area/volume so it can be useful to relate atmospheric deposition rates with the lichen metal content. The synthetic materials accumulated Cu and Ni and should only be used as an alternative to traditional transplants when these are the elements of interest.     

标准物质在环境应急监测定量分析中的作用

以环境空气中挥发性有机物(VOCs)监测为例,比较分析了标准物质在应急监测、实验室定量分析,以及应急监测定量、半定量分析中的作用。结果表明,在有标准物质进行定量校准时,应急监测方法和实验室标准分析方法的定量结果具有可比性;在无标准物质进行半定量分析时,应急监测结果可能存在较大误差。提出,在需准确定量的应急监测中应使用标准物质进行校准,以保证监测结果的准确性。     

Soil Contribution to the Elemental Composition of Epiphytic Lichens (Tuscany, Central Italy)

Total concentrations of Al, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Mo, Pb, Sr, Ti, V and Zn in the epiphytic lichen Parmelia sulcata and superficial soils from 60 remote sampling sites in Tuscany (central Italy) were determined to evaluate the contribution of soil to the elemental composition of the lichen. The results showed that in the Mediterranean environment, the trace element content of unwashed lichen samples is greatly affected by soil contamination. However, despite the strong correlations between the concentrations of lithogene elements such as Al, Fe and Ti in P. sulcata, lichen levels of these elements were not at all linearly correlated with their concentrations in the soil, suggesting that dust contamination is highly variable and probably dependent on local site characteristics. All methods evaluated to minimize soil contamination indicated Cu, Pb and Zn as elements of atmospheric origin. However, while levels of Pb were similar to those reported for background areas, moderate pollution by Cu and Zn, probably from fertilizers used in agriculture, was revealed. For elements such as Cd and Mo, identified as atmophile, some uncertainty exists due to the fact that they are essential for lichen metabolism and accumulate intracellularly in lichens; they may therefore occur in soluble form in the lichen thallus.     

离子色谱法测定水中氯化物监测质量控制指标研究

研究了离子色谱法测定水中氯化物质量控制指标,提出精密度和准确度的建议控制指标,具有广泛指导意义。全国东、西、中部共12个省份的53家实验室参加测定工作。研究结果为：在一定的浓度范围内,RSD1．0％,RSD≤5．0％,RE≤±5．0％;加标回收率为95．0％～115．0％;RD≤4．0％。     

Passive monitoring of atmospheric heavy metals in a historical city of central India by Lepraria lobificans Nyl.

Using an organism living in situ for monitoring is referred as passive monitoring. Lepraria lobificans Nyl., a leprose lichen growing naturally on monuments and buildings in the city Mandav in central India is used for passive monitoring of atmospheric metals. Seven metals (Cd, Cr, Ni, Al, Fe, Cu, and Zn) were analyzed. Samples collected from road site exhibit the maximum concentration of Fe, Cd, Cr, Ni, and Zn. Iron exhibit maximum accumulation both in lichen thallus and the substratum with mean values of 2,195.63 μg g^???1 dry weight. As compared with other growth form of lichens, L. lobificans exhibits the higher accumulation of Fe than foliose and fruticose lichens. On the basis of these results, it can be hypothesized that L. lobificans is an excellent accumulator of different metals. The statistical analysis applied to the element concentration between the metals as well as between the sites by analysis of variance found the difference to be significant at 1% and 5%, respectively. Student–Newman–Keuls test also shows significant difference for iron between the different metals.     

PSO和SVM混合算法确定太湖入湖河流水质主要影响因子

以影响太湖入湖河流水质的24个因子值为研究对象，将PSO算法与SVM算法相结合。PSO算法用于优化SVM算法的参数c和g，以利于快速、高效地确定c和g的全局最优值；SVM算法基于最优的c和g，分别以24，21，18，15，12，9和6个因子作为特征向量预测水质的污染程度。结果表明，当特征向量为9个影响因子时预测率最高。其参数c=18.56，g=1.35，对应的预测率为：全局预测率92.59%，重度污染水质预测率88.89%，轻度污染水质预测率94.45%。因此，通过PSO和SVM混合算法，可以确定影响太湖入湖河流水质的主要因子，利用这些主要因子对水质进行预测预警，不但可以节省时间，而且可以得到精确的结果。     

Factor analysis of trace-element data from tree-bark samples in The Netherlands

Monte Carlo-assisted factor analysis has been applied to a data set of 20 trace-element concentrations in tree-bark samples obtained from 123 locations in The Netherlands, with the aim to investigate the suitability of bark as a biomonitor for air pollution. A Monte Carlo approach was used to give more insight to the uncertainties and significance levels of the factor analysis results. Notwith-standing a rather strong influence of soil material on the concentration levels, factor analysis enabled the identification of five significant pollution source types, all of which corresponded with source types found in an earlier biomonitoring study in The Netherlands using epiphytic lichens. A more detailed comparison with the lichen results showed a remarkable difference in lead concentrations between bark and lichen. It was concluded that bark can be successfully employed as a biomonitor for air pollution. The power of factor analysis to adequately determine the soil contribution may render extensive sample washing procedures superfluous.     

Spatial scales of variation in lichens: implications for sampling design in biomonitoring surveys

The variability of biological data is a main constraint affecting the quality and reliability of lichen biomonitoring surveys for estimation of the effects of atmospheric pollution. Although most epiphytic lichen bioindication surveys focus on between-site differences at the landscape level, associated with the large scale effects of atmospheric pollution, current protocols are based on multilevel sampling, thus adding further sources of variation and affecting the error budget. We test the hypothesis that assemblages of lichen communities vary at each spatial scale examined, in order to determine what scales should be included in future monitoring studies. We compared four sites in Italy, along gradients of atmospheric pollution and climate, to test the partitioning of the variance components of lichen diversity across spatial scales (from trunks to landscapes). Despite environmental heterogeneity, we observed comparable spatial variance. However, residuals often overcame between-plot variability, leading to biased estimation of atmospheric pollution effects.     

Identifying the origin of atmospheric inputs of trace elements in the Prades Mountains (Catalonia) with bryophytes, lichens, and soil monitoring

The biomonitors Hypnum cupressiforme and Xanthoria parietina were used to assess the deposition of trace elements and their possible origin in the Prades Mountains, a protected Mediterranean forest area of NE Spain with several pollution sources nearby. Al, As, Cd, Co, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, Sb, Ti, V, and Zn were determined in 16 locations within this protected area. Soil trace element concentrations were also ascertained to calculate enrichment factors (EF) and use them to distinguish airborne from soilborne trace element inputs. In addition, lichen richness was measured to further assess atmospheric pollution. EF demonstrated to be useful not only for the moss but also for the lichen. Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, and Zn presented values higher than three in both biomonitors. These trace elements were also the main ones emitted by the potential sources of pollutants. The distance between sampling locations and potential pollution sources was correlated with the concentrations of Cu, Sb, and Zn in the moss and with Cr, Ni, and Sb in the lichen. Lichen richness was negatively correlated with lichen Cu, Pb, and V concentrations on dry weight basis. The study reflected the remarkable influence that the pollution sources have on the presence of trace elements and on lichen species community composition in this natural area. The study highlights the value of combining the use of biomonitors, enrichment factors, and lichen diversity for pollution assessment to reach a better overview of both trace elements’ impact and the localization of their sources.     

基于BP神经网络的贵阳市空气质量指数预报模型

采用贵阳市2013年1月1日—2015年12月31日的空气质量指数(AQI)日均值,常规的地面和高空观测资料,基于不同季节,调整BP神经网络的隐藏层个数和隐藏层节点数,建立不同的BP神经网络预报模型,进行参数检验,最终选取预报效果最好的模型带入实况进行检验。结果表明,夏季的预报效果最好,采用的模型TS评分为81.6%,平均绝对误差为9.1,正确率为97.4%,用该模型检验预报效果,实况和预报的相关系数为0.71,平均误差为9;而冬季的预报效果明显低于其他季节,采用的模型TS评分为65.7%,平均绝对误差为19.5,正确率为72.9%,用该模型检验预报效果,实况和预报的相关系数为0.79,平均误差为19。而且BP神经网络模型的预报效果同隐藏层个数与隐藏层节点数没有显著关系。     

气相色谱-热导检测器测定页岩气组分的研究

建立了气相色谱-热导检测器法测定页岩气中氮气、甲烷、一氧化碳、二氧化碳、乙烷、丙烷、异丁烷和正丁烷等组分的方法,检测数据利用仪器工作站采集和输出,采用保留时间定性,校正归一(扣除空气)法定量计算。方法的相对标准偏差(n=6)为0. 03%～4. 88%,检出限为0. 03%～0. 06%,相对误差≤4%,方法具有较好的准确度和精密度,且快速、简便,可用于大批量页岩气样品组分的分析。     

环境空气气态污染物(CO、SO2、NO)标准气体质量评估

为了解当前不同来源环境空气气态污染物（CO、SO₂、NO）标气质量状况,选择12家主流气态污染物（CO、SO₂、NO）标气制造商,分别匿名采购3种气态污染物标气,建立2家参考实验室共同测试的模式和计量溯源一致性评价方法,对标气进行测试后,采用En值法评价其定值准确性,同时评估其技术资料完整性。结果显示：12家制造商的72瓶有证标气中,有9瓶标气定值结果准确性评价为不合格,涉及5个制造商来源,其中NO作为反应性气体,不合格标气数量最多,占比达20.8%;12家制造商中8家技术资料完整。鉴于标准气体对气态污染物监测结果的准确性、可比性和可溯源性具有重要意义,建议进一步加强标气质量事中事后监管和行业评估,推动制造商不断提高标气生产水平。标气使用者则应尽量选择质量可靠的有证标气。     

珠三角区域空气质量预报方法及预报效果评估

介绍了珠三角区域空气质量预报的"六步法"流程,并对2015年空气质量等级和首要污染物预报准确率进行评估研究。结果表明,2015年珠三角区域空气质量以优良为主,24 h等级预报准确率1月最高2月最低,平均准确率为87.6%;出现的首要污染物种类包括PM2.5,PM10,O3-8 h和NO2,预报准确率9月最高3月最低,平均准确率为72.7%。