Quantifying coastal inundation vulnerability of Turkey to sea-level rise

The vulnerability of low-lying coastal areas in Turkey to inundation was quantified based on the sea-level rise scenarios of 1, 2, and 3 m by 2205. Through digital elevation model (DEM) acquired by the shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM), the extent and distribution of the high to low-risk coastal plains were identified. The spatio-temporal analysis revealed the inundated coastal areas of 545, 1,286, and 2,125 km² at average rates of 5, 10, and 15 mm yr⁻¹ for 200 years, respectively. This is equivalent to minimum and maximum land losses by 2205 of 0.1–0.3% of the total area and of 1.3–5.2% of the coastal areas with elevations of less than 100 m in the country, respectively. This study provides an initial assessment of vulnerability to sea-level rise to help decision-makers, and other concerned stakeholders to develop appropriate public policies and land-use planning measures.     

National assessment of sea level rise using topographic and census data for Turkish coastal zone

Turkish coastal zone elevation to sea level rise was illustrated by using digital elevation model and Geographical information systems methods. It was intended to determine several parameters such as population, settlements, land use, wetlands, contribution to national agricultural production and taxes at risk by using high resolution SRTM topographic, orthorectified Landsat Thematic Mapper Mosaics and census data with GIS methods within 0-10 m elevation of national level. All parameters were examined for coastal cities, coastal districts, settlements and villages' status. As a result of the analysis of data set, it was found that approximately 7,319 km(2) of land area lies below 10 m contour line in Turkey, and is hence highly vulnerable to sea-level rise. 28 coastal cities, 191 districts and 181 villages or towns are located below 10 m contour line in study area. In the short term, for the struggle of negative impact of sea level rise, the findings suggest that the Ministry of Environment should declare new areas as protection areas and develop special environmental programs for national level.     

Coastal Flood Risk Analysis Using Landsat-7 ETM+ Imagery and SRTM DEM: A Case Study of Izmir, Turkey

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports an acceleration of the global mean sea-level rise (MSLR) in the twentieth century in response to global climate change. If this acceleration remains constant, then some coastal areas are most likely to be inundated by the year 2100. The ability to identify the differential vulnerability of coastlines to future inundation hazards as result of global climate change is necessary for timely actions to be taken. Yildiz et al. (Journal of Mapping, 17, 1-75, 2003) reported that the local MSLR in the city of Izmir rose at a rate of 6.8 +/- 0.9 mm year(-1) between 1984 and 2002. In this study, the spatial distribution of the coastal inundation hazards of Izmir region was determined using not only land-use and land-cover (LULC) types derived from the maximum likelihood classification of Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) multi-spectral image set but also the classification of the digital elevation model (DEM) acquired by the shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM). Coastal areas with elevations of 2 and 5 m above mean sea-level vulnerable to inundation were found to cover 2.1 and 3.7% of the study region (6,107 km(2)), respectively. Our findings revealed that Menemen plain along Gediz river, and the settlements of Karsiyaka, Alacati, Aliaga, Candarli and Selcuk are at high risk in order of decreasing vulnerability to permanent and episodic inundation by 2100 under the high MSLR scenarios of 20 to 50 mm year(-1).     

Soil-Water Partitioning and Desorption Hysteresis of Volatile Organic Compounds from a Louisiana Superfund Site Soil

The adsorption and desorption of three volatile organic compounds (1,2- dichloroethane, 1,1,2- trichloroethane and 1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane) from a previously uncontaminated clayey soil sample from a Superfund site in North Baton Rouge,Louisiana was studied. In the linear range of the adsorption isotherm, the partition constants were not affected by the presence of the co-solutes. The adsorption isotherms over a wide concentration range on the soil followed the nonlinearFreundlich isotherm. The desorption of the compounds showedsignificant hysteresis at all concentrations studied. Approximately 20 to 70% of the adsorbed mass of organic compounds resisted the desorption even after five months ofsuccessive desorption steps. The desorption of four compounds(1,2-dichloroethane, 1,1,2-trichloroethane, 1,4-dichlorobenzeneand hexachlorobutadiene) from a contaminated soil sample fromthe same site was also studied. The aqueous concentration declined as the successive desorption steps progressed. For hexachlorobutediene the desorption can be visualized as occurring in two stages. The first stage involved a loosely bound or reversible fraction and the second stage involveda tightly bound or resistant fraction.     

Strategic Management Decision Support System: An Analysis of the Environmental Policy Issues

In this paper we present a new approach for modeling environmental problem as a bilevel programming problem. To the authors best knowledge, this is the first attempt to use bilivel techniques to tackle such problems. We derive at solution to help decision makers to cope with environmental policy issues. San Francisco, Bay Area is used as a real world example with the solution to their environmental problem.California is presently faced with a serious deficit of solid waste treatment and disposal facilities. Federal legislation has sought to compel the States to assure the capacity to treat and dispose of their own wastes and the California Legislature has enacted laws requiring the counties to initiate programs so that they can treat and dispose of their own wastes. Neither the federal nor the State programs have met with success in California. California continues to ship greater and greater amounts of waste out-of-state, and the majority of California counties have not instituted plans acceptable to the State government regarding the treatment and disposal of their own wastes.In the few cases where sitting and licensing programs have been proposed, the policy-makers charged with their evaluation have proceeded with largely intuitive, non-quantitative evaluation of policy options, often ignoring most of the financial and environmental implication of their decisions.We have developed a strategic management decision model that can evaluate multiple solid waste management options from both economic and environmental standpoints. Examples of problems a quantitative model might evaluate include the economic and environmental impacts of multiple treatment or disposal facilities as opposed to only one site; the environmental impact of taxing dirty waste streams, thus encouraging waste treatment and/or minimization on-site; and the social risk resulting from transportation risks assuming one or more multiple treatment or disposal sites or the use of alternative transportation routes.Because of extensive information presently available for the San Francisco Bay region, we have investigated the regional waste management problem there under several different treatment and disposal scenarios. As appropriate, results from this regional model and from authors earlier work [1] will be applied to California as a whole.     

Assessment of Mangrove Response to Projected Relative Sea-Level Rise And Recent Historical Reconstruction of Shoreline Position

We predict the decadal change in position of three American Samoa mangroves from analysis of a time series of remotely sensed imagery, a geographic information system, tide gauge data, and projections for change in sea-level relative to the mangrove surface. Accurate predictions of changes to coastal ecosystem boundaries, including in response to projected relative sea-level rise, enable advanced planning to minimize and offset anticipated losses and minimize social disruption and cost of reducing threats to coastal development and human safety. The observed mean landward migration of three mangroves' seaward margins over four decades was 25, 64, and 72mma⁻¹, 12 to 37 times the observed relative sea-level rise rate. Two of the sites had clear trends in reductions in mangrove area, where there was a highly significant correlation between the change in position of the seaward mangrove margin and change in relative sea-level. Here it can be inferred that the force of sea-level rise relative to the mangrove surface is causing landward migration. Shoreline movement was variable at a third site and not significantly correlated with changing sea-level, where it is likely that forces other than change in relative sea-level are predominant. Currently, 16.5%, 23.4%, and 68.0% of the three mangroves' landward margins are obstructed by coastal development from natural landward migration. The three mangroves could experience as high as a 50.0% reduction in area by the year 2100. A 12% reduction in mangrove area by the year 2100 is possible in the Pacific islands region.     

Seabirds as Indicators of Changes in Marine Ecosystems: Ecological Monitoring on Machias Seal Island

Changes in marine ecosystems can be manifested in many different ways, on different temporal and spatial scales. Seabirds are top consumers in marine foodwebs and offer opportunities to detect and assess the biological effects of changes in physical parameters (sea-surface temperature [SST], salinity, depth of thermocline etc.) of the marine ecosystem. We compare six-eight years' of data on the biology (diet, and breeding success) of four species of seabird (arctic tern Sterna paradisaeaand common tern S. hirundo, which feed at the sea surface; and Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica and razorbill Alca torda, which dive 30–60 m for their prey) breeding on Machias Seal Island (MSI) in the Bay of Fundy with both our own meteorological and oceanographic measurements, and with standard measurements from conventional sources. These are compared with fisheries data on changes in the main prey of all the seabirds concerned (juvenile or 0-group herring Clupea harengus) which are the most direct link between the seabirds and the physical properties of the marine system. We explore relationships between seabird productivity and diet, and other aspects of both herring biology (larval surveys, and fat content) and oceanography (SST data from the island, and remotely sensed data from the entrance to the Bay of Fundy). Timing of laying by puffins followed SST variation at neither the local (MSI) nor regional scales, but at the scale of the North Atlantic, following the trend of populations breeding off northern Norway. The proportion of herring in the diet of terns over 6 years varied inversely with herring larval abundance the previous fall; this relationship was not statistically significant in the puffin and razorbill. A major new finding is the considerable (50%) inter-annual variation in the energy density (fat content) of juvenile herring that are the main seabird prey; breeding success of both species of tern varied in parallel with the energy density of juvenile herring in the diet until the last two years of the study, when sandlance (Ammodytes sp.) and euphausid shrimp predominated in the diet. Our long-term research approach combines traditional population monitoring (of numbers of breeding birds) with demographic, behavioural and environmental monitoring, to provide new understanding of the marine ecosystem as well as of seabirds.     

Monitoring of the functioning of ecosystems

The theoretical basis, the content and the possible applications of the program Monitoring of ecosystems are considered. A functional definition of ecosystem is proposed, and some features of ecosystems are defined on this basis. The program Monitoring of ecosystems is visualized as a large-scale program of simple measurements of the rates of the main ecosystem processes. The expected results can be utilized in two ways: (1) a comparative knowledge of ecosystem functioning provides the fundamentals of geography of ecosystems, and (2) the constant, repeatable evaluation of a given ecosystem function provides a basis for its rational management.     

Evaluation of marine outfall with three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality modeling

Numerical models are often used to evaluate the potential impact of human alternation of natural water bodies and to help the design of the alternation to mitigate its impacts. In the past decade, three-dimensional hydrodynamic and reactive transport modeling has matured from a research subject to a practical analysis technology. This paper presents a practical study in which a three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model [hydrodynamic eutrophication model (HEM-3D)] was applied to determine the optimal location for treated wastewater discharged from marine outfall system in the Keelung harbor and the adjacent coastal sea. First, model validation was conducted with respect to surface elevation, current, and water quality variables measured in the Keelung harbor station and its coastal sea. The overall performance of the model was in qualitative agreement with the available field data. The model was then used to evaluate several scenarios of the locations from marine outfall system. Based on model simulation results, a location at the northeast of Ho-Ping Island was recommended for adoption because the environmental impact is smaller than any other alternative.

Earth system analysis and management

A research strategy based upon models of intermediate complexity addressing crucial aspects of global environmental change is presented. The key idea behind that strategy is to compress system complexity either by formal techniques such that first-order aspects are preserved, or to employ semi-qualitative schemes to describe and simulate the dominant dynamical patterns identified by panoramic inspection.Specific realizations of the overall heuristic philosophy are introduced as elements of a comprehensive research program on global change. Topics encompass global climate modeling, a decision analysis framework for managing the global warming problem by balancing adaptation and mitigation efforts, a generic approach to integrated regional climate impact assessment and its implementation in specific regions, as well as a new technique to link regional and global patterns of environmental change by using advanced modeling tools.