Quantifying coastal inundation vulnerability of Turkey to sea-level rise

The vulnerability of low-lying coastal areas in Turkey to inundation was quantified based on the sea-level rise scenarios of 1, 2, and 3 m by 2205. Through digital elevation model (DEM) acquired by the shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM), the extent and distribution of the high to low-risk coastal plains were identified. The spatio-temporal analysis revealed the inundated coastal areas of 545, 1,286, and 2,125 km² at average rates of 5, 10, and 15 mm yr⁻¹ for 200 years, respectively. This is equivalent to minimum and maximum land losses by 2205 of 0.1–0.3% of the total area and of 1.3–5.2% of the coastal areas with elevations of less than 100 m in the country, respectively. This study provides an initial assessment of vulnerability to sea-level rise to help decision-makers, and other concerned stakeholders to develop appropriate public policies and land-use planning measures.     

National assessment of sea level rise using topographic and census data for Turkish coastal zone

Turkish coastal zone elevation to sea level rise was illustrated by using digital elevation model and Geographical information systems methods. It was intended to determine several parameters such as population, settlements, land use, wetlands, contribution to national agricultural production and taxes at risk by using high resolution SRTM topographic, orthorectified Landsat Thematic Mapper Mosaics and census data with GIS methods within 0-10 m elevation of national level. All parameters were examined for coastal cities, coastal districts, settlements and villages' status. As a result of the analysis of data set, it was found that approximately 7,319 km(2) of land area lies below 10 m contour line in Turkey, and is hence highly vulnerable to sea-level rise. 28 coastal cities, 191 districts and 181 villages or towns are located below 10 m contour line in study area. In the short term, for the struggle of negative impact of sea level rise, the findings suggest that the Ministry of Environment should declare new areas as protection areas and develop special environmental programs for national level.     

Coastal Flood Risk Analysis Using Landsat-7 ETM+ Imagery and SRTM DEM: A Case Study of Izmir, Turkey

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports an acceleration of the global mean sea-level rise (MSLR) in the twentieth century in response to global climate change. If this acceleration remains constant, then some coastal areas are most likely to be inundated by the year 2100. The ability to identify the differential vulnerability of coastlines to future inundation hazards as result of global climate change is necessary for timely actions to be taken. Yildiz et al. (Journal of Mapping, 17, 1-75, 2003) reported that the local MSLR in the city of Izmir rose at a rate of 6.8 +/- 0.9 mm year(-1) between 1984 and 2002. In this study, the spatial distribution of the coastal inundation hazards of Izmir region was determined using not only land-use and land-cover (LULC) types derived from the maximum likelihood classification of Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) multi-spectral image set but also the classification of the digital elevation model (DEM) acquired by the shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM). Coastal areas with elevations of 2 and 5 m above mean sea-level vulnerable to inundation were found to cover 2.1 and 3.7% of the study region (6,107 km(2)), respectively. Our findings revealed that Menemen plain along Gediz river, and the settlements of Karsiyaka, Alacati, Aliaga, Candarli and Selcuk are at high risk in order of decreasing vulnerability to permanent and episodic inundation by 2100 under the high MSLR scenarios of 20 to 50 mm year(-1).     

Soil-Water Partitioning and Desorption Hysteresis of Volatile Organic Compounds from a Louisiana Superfund Site Soil

The adsorption and desorption of three volatile organic compounds (1,2- dichloroethane, 1,1,2- trichloroethane and 1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane) from a previously uncontaminated clayey soil sample from a Superfund site in North Baton Rouge,Louisiana was studied. In the linear range of the adsorption isotherm, the partition constants were not affected by the presence of the co-solutes. The adsorption isotherms over a wide concentration range on the soil followed the nonlinearFreundlich isotherm. The desorption of the compounds showedsignificant hysteresis at all concentrations studied. Approximately 20 to 70% of the adsorbed mass of organic compounds resisted the desorption even after five months ofsuccessive desorption steps. The desorption of four compounds(1,2-dichloroethane, 1,1,2-trichloroethane, 1,4-dichlorobenzeneand hexachlorobutadiene) from a contaminated soil sample fromthe same site was also studied. The aqueous concentration declined as the successive desorption steps progressed. For hexachlorobutediene the desorption can be visualized as occurring in two stages. The first stage involved a loosely bound or reversible fraction and the second stage involveda tightly bound or resistant fraction.     

Strategic Management Decision Support System: An Analysis of the Environmental Policy Issues

In this paper we present a new approach for modeling environmental problem as a bilevel programming problem. To the authors best knowledge, this is the first attempt to use bilivel techniques to tackle such problems. We derive at solution to help decision makers to cope with environmental policy issues. San Francisco, Bay Area is used as a real world example with the solution to their environmental problem.California is presently faced with a serious deficit of solid waste treatment and disposal facilities. Federal legislation has sought to compel the States to assure the capacity to treat and dispose of their own wastes and the California Legislature has enacted laws requiring the counties to initiate programs so that they can treat and dispose of their own wastes. Neither the federal nor the State programs have met with success in California. California continues to ship greater and greater amounts of waste out-of-state, and the majority of California counties have not instituted plans acceptable to the State government regarding the treatment and disposal of their own wastes.In the few cases where sitting and licensing programs have been proposed, the policy-makers charged with their evaluation have proceeded with largely intuitive, non-quantitative evaluation of policy options, often ignoring most of the financial and environmental implication of their decisions.We have developed a strategic management decision model that can evaluate multiple solid waste management options from both economic and environmental standpoints. Examples of problems a quantitative model might evaluate include the economic and environmental impacts of multiple treatment or disposal facilities as opposed to only one site; the environmental impact of taxing dirty waste streams, thus encouraging waste treatment and/or minimization on-site; and the social risk resulting from transportation risks assuming one or more multiple treatment or disposal sites or the use of alternative transportation routes.Because of extensive information presently available for the San Francisco Bay region, we have investigated the regional waste management problem there under several different treatment and disposal scenarios. As appropriate, results from this regional model and from authors earlier work [1] will be applied to California as a whole.     

Seabirds as Indicators of Changes in Marine Ecosystems: Ecological Monitoring on Machias Seal Island

Changes in marine ecosystems can be manifested in many different ways, on different temporal and spatial scales. Seabirds are top consumers in marine foodwebs and offer opportunities to detect and assess the biological effects of changes in physical parameters (sea-surface temperature [SST], salinity, depth of thermocline etc.) of the marine ecosystem. We compare six-eight years' of data on the biology (diet, and breeding success) of four species of seabird (arctic tern Sterna paradisaeaand common tern S. hirundo, which feed at the sea surface; and Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica and razorbill Alca torda, which dive 30–60 m for their prey) breeding on Machias Seal Island (MSI) in the Bay of Fundy with both our own meteorological and oceanographic measurements, and with standard measurements from conventional sources. These are compared with fisheries data on changes in the main prey of all the seabirds concerned (juvenile or 0-group herring Clupea harengus) which are the most direct link between the seabirds and the physical properties of the marine system. We explore relationships between seabird productivity and diet, and other aspects of both herring biology (larval surveys, and fat content) and oceanography (SST data from the island, and remotely sensed data from the entrance to the Bay of Fundy). Timing of laying by puffins followed SST variation at neither the local (MSI) nor regional scales, but at the scale of the North Atlantic, following the trend of populations breeding off northern Norway. The proportion of herring in the diet of terns over 6 years varied inversely with herring larval abundance the previous fall; this relationship was not statistically significant in the puffin and razorbill. A major new finding is the considerable (50%) inter-annual variation in the energy density (fat content) of juvenile herring that are the main seabird prey; breeding success of both species of tern varied in parallel with the energy density of juvenile herring in the diet until the last two years of the study, when sandlance (Ammodytes sp.) and euphausid shrimp predominated in the diet. Our long-term research approach combines traditional population monitoring (of numbers of breeding birds) with demographic, behavioural and environmental monitoring, to provide new understanding of the marine ecosystem as well as of seabirds.     

Assessment of Mangrove Response to Projected Relative Sea-Level Rise And Recent Historical Reconstruction of Shoreline Position

We predict the decadal change in position of three American Samoa mangroves from analysis of a time series of remotely sensed imagery, a geographic information system, tide gauge data, and projections for change in sea-level relative to the mangrove surface. Accurate predictions of changes to coastal ecosystem boundaries, including in response to projected relative sea-level rise, enable advanced planning to minimize and offset anticipated losses and minimize social disruption and cost of reducing threats to coastal development and human safety. The observed mean landward migration of three mangroves' seaward margins over four decades was 25, 64, and 72mma⁻¹, 12 to 37 times the observed relative sea-level rise rate. Two of the sites had clear trends in reductions in mangrove area, where there was a highly significant correlation between the change in position of the seaward mangrove margin and change in relative sea-level. Here it can be inferred that the force of sea-level rise relative to the mangrove surface is causing landward migration. Shoreline movement was variable at a third site and not significantly correlated with changing sea-level, where it is likely that forces other than change in relative sea-level are predominant. Currently, 16.5%, 23.4%, and 68.0% of the three mangroves' landward margins are obstructed by coastal development from natural landward migration. The three mangroves could experience as high as a 50.0% reduction in area by the year 2100. A 12% reduction in mangrove area by the year 2100 is possible in the Pacific islands region.     

Monitoring of the functioning of ecosystems

The theoretical basis, the content and the possible applications of the program Monitoring of ecosystems are considered. A functional definition of ecosystem is proposed, and some features of ecosystems are defined on this basis. The program Monitoring of ecosystems is visualized as a large-scale program of simple measurements of the rates of the main ecosystem processes. The expected results can be utilized in two ways: (1) a comparative knowledge of ecosystem functioning provides the fundamentals of geography of ecosystems, and (2) the constant, repeatable evaluation of a given ecosystem function provides a basis for its rational management.     

GIS ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY OF THE ROSETTA AREA, EGYPT TO IMPACTS OF SEA RISE

A study of the area, including Rosetta city and the estuary of the river Nile (Rosetta branch), has been carried out for assessment of the impact of sea level rise (slr). A geographic information system (GIS) has been built including layers of land use, topography, archeological sites, land cover and population. Analysis of data has been carried out to assess vulnerability of various land use and land cover classes to the impact of sea level rise.Because the area under study has geomorphic relief profiles just over the sea level, inundation of total land could reach 26% of total study area due to only half a meter rise in sea level. This lost area includes 32% of urban clusters mainly used for human shelter and contains 52% of present monuments, 25% of valuable high quality dense palm trees cultivation, 75% of beaches and 19% of lands suitable, 25% of valuable high quality dense palm trees cultivation, 75% of beaches and 19% of lands suitable for agricultural reclamation (although suffering from salt water intrusion and soil salinization). This is expected to cause a significant impact on the present population, economic activities, total regional revenue, and also on tourism. At 1.1 m sea level rise, 72% to total study area could be inundated. This area contains all beaches, half of the palm cultivation, 43% of total urban clusters, which includes 81% of the monumental sites and historic buildings.Other environmental problems such as solid waste management, sanitary disposal network, deteriorating conditions of some monumental structures, in addition to the sea level rise act negatively on the environmental quality of the urban community. Future plans for urban expansion in the area must be studied carefully in order to preserve valuable palm lands and maintain and protect monuments and historic sites which help the promotion of tourism. An environmental management program is essential for upgrading tourism, promoting urban development and protecting coastal lands.     

Earth system analysis and management

A research strategy based upon models of intermediate complexity addressing crucial aspects of global environmental change is presented. The key idea behind that strategy is to compress system complexity either by formal techniques such that first-order aspects are preserved, or to employ semi-qualitative schemes to describe and simulate the dominant dynamical patterns identified by panoramic inspection.Specific realizations of the overall heuristic philosophy are introduced as elements of a comprehensive research program on global change. Topics encompass global climate modeling, a decision analysis framework for managing the global warming problem by balancing adaptation and mitigation efforts, a generic approach to integrated regional climate impact assessment and its implementation in specific regions, as well as a new technique to link regional and global patterns of environmental change by using advanced modeling tools.     

Spatial scale-dependent policy planning for land management in southern Europe

This study outlines and original tool for rural policy planning in southern Europe. This new tool is a process-based, scale-dependent, rural policy-making approach, which is designed to address increasing land degradation problems in southern Europe. Seven important processes are identified (land abandonment, devegetation, intensification in agriculture, global climate change, accelerated soil erosion, increasing water demands, urbanisation) and plotted on a space-time diagram, which clearly shows the spatial and temporal scales for which these processes are significant for landscape change in southern Europe. Conclusions are derived concerning, in particular, sustainable (optimal) rural policy-making for southern Europe's problematic land management. An optimal spatial-temporal scale for land management in southern Europe may range spatially from the farm (0.5 km²) to sub-provincial level (450 km²) and temporally from 7 to 30 years. The study delineates methods and results derivable from such a new policy-planning approach and suggests the usefulness of combining this approach with ecological land classification at the landscape level.     

Initial results from a multi-institutional collaboration to monitor harmful algal blooms in South Carolina

The rapid rate of development in the South Carolina (SC) coastal zone has heightened public concern for the condition of the state's estuaries, and alerted scientists to the potential that novel and adverse effects on estuarine ecosystems may result. Although well-developed databases from long-term monitoring programs exist for many variables valuable in predicting and following system responses, information on phytoplankton distributions in SC estuaries has lagged. Knowledge of the dynamical relationship between environmental (e.g., nutrient quantity and quality) and biological (e.g., grazing) regulation, and phytoplankton biomass and composition is critical to understanding estuarine susceptibility to eutrophication or harmful algal blooms (HABs). Recently, SC scientists from federal, state, and academic institutions established a collaborative monitoring program to assess HAB distribution and ecology statewide. The South Carolina Harmful Algal Bloom Program includes: a) intensive temporal monitoring at areas of known HAB occurrence or those exhibiting symptoms potentially related to HABs (e.g., prevalent fish lesions), b) extensive spatial monitoring in coordination with existing statewide efforts, c) a citizen volunteer monitoring network, d) nutrient response bioassays, and e) laboratory-based physiological experiments on HAB isolates. By combining trip-wire surveillance and rapid response systems, routine monitoring of environmental parameters and HAB distribution, and process-oriented studies examining the physiological functioning of HAB species, an enhanced understanding of the impact and environmental control of HABs in SC estuaries will be achieved. The application of this approach to studies on the distribution and physiological ecology of a new widespread SC red tide, and to the discovery of several potentially toxic blooms (including Pfiesteria) in SC holding ponds, are described.     

The social values at risk from sea-level rise

Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies.     

Organochlorinated Compounds in Waters of the Pearl River Delta Region

Samples of river water and sewage water were analysed for ten PCB congeners, chlorobenzenes and chlorinated pesticides (BHCs and DDT) in three cities (Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Zhaoqing) in the Pearl River Delta, The results showed that the sewage water in Shengzhen had the highest concentration of total PCBs at about 10ng/L, and Dasha River (Shengzhen), the lowest at about 1.0ng/L. In general, the sewage waters in the three cities had higher concentrations of PCBs than river waters. Chlorobenzenes were investigated in the water samples. The total concentrations of chlorobenzenes ranged from 0.02~0.13g/L, the Dasha River had the highest level of chlorobenzenes, and the sewage water in the city of Zhaoqing had the next highest. The result may be related to the discharges from paper production factories nearby the sampling sections of the Dasha River (Shenzhen) and sewage water in Zhaoqing. The concentrations of organochlorinated pesticides (-BHC, -BHC, -BHC, DDT and DDE) changed little in all water samples except for the sewage water in Guangzhou. It seemed that these pesticides are more a residual signal than a direct discharge from point sources.     

Correlation between environmental parameters and leaf injury in Nicotiana tabacum L. cv. ‘Bel-W 3’

Tobacco plants (Nicotiana tabacum L. cv. Bel-W3) were exposed to ambient air for 25 weeks during the 1987 growing season next to an air pollution monitoring station in Brera (Milan, Italy). The research objective was to study the influence of selected environmental parameters on leaf damage in this plant, which is widely used as an ozone indicator. A multiple linear correlation model was estimated between leaf damage and available meteorological and air pollution data. Leaf injury was positively correlated with ozone integrated exposure and temperature, but negatively with vapour pressure deficit. A linear correlation model was used to estimate ozone integrated exposure from the leaf injury indexWork carried out as part of the research programme: ENEL's contribution to the knowledge of important environmental issues, research line: Effects of atmospheric pollution on the land.     

Determination of European methane emissions,using concentration and isotope measurements

The determination of methane emissions on a regional scale is needed in order to reduce some of the uncertainties in the global methane budget. Our measurements of the concentration and the Carbon-13 isotope composition (¹³C) of atmospheric methane are, combined with trajectories, used to get insight in the type and size of the methane emissions of a large area.     

Cadmium and zinc source assessment in the Sepetiba Bay and basin region

Industrial and weathering inputs of Cd and Zn to the Sepetiba Bay and basin were assessed, based on production parameters obtained from local environment and industry authorities, and literature data. The results are compared with similar evaluations from other coastal regions and field data obtained in measuring Zn and Cd transport by rivers, direct run-off and atmospheric deposition in the region. Cadmium and zinc inputs to the bay increased by three orders of magnitude relative to pre-industrial fluxes and presently reach up to 1.6 and 180 tonnes per year for Cd and Zn, respectively, which represents a large input-to-area ratio, and explains the high concentration of these metals previously reported in the estuarine biota and sediments of Sepetiba Bay. Industrial activities, mainly metallurgical and chemical, comprise 94% and 84% of the total Cd and Zn inputs to the Bay. This figure identifies the point sources as being responsible for the environmental contamination and for regional poisoning risks.     

Climate change vulnerability in a tropical region based on environmental and socio-economic factors

The understanding of the regional and local dimensions of vulnerability due to climate change is essential to develop appropriate and targeted adaptation efforts. We assessed the local dimensions of vulnerability in the tropical state of Kerala, India, using a purposely developed vulnerability index, which accounts for both environmental and socio-economic factors. The large extents of coastal wetlands and lagoons and high concentration of mangrove forests make the state environmentally vulnerable. Low human development index, large population of socially deprived groups, which are dependent on the primary sector, and high population density make the state vulnerable from a socio-economic point of view. The present study investigates climate change vulnerability at the district level in the State of Kerala relying on a purposely developed composite vulnerability index that encompasses both socio-economic and environmental factors. The Kerala coast contains the socio-economically and ecologically most vulnerable regions, as demonstrated by a composite vulnerability index.     

linking various aspects of atmospheric change through a systems analysis of food

Although interdisciplinary collaboration to address a singleenvironmental problem is more common than in the past, all toooften the significant atmospheric problems of our day such asstratospheric ozone depletion, acidic deposition or climaticchange are addressed on a single issue basis. Systems analysis isa way of looking at a problem in a holistic, integrated fashionthrough including as many as practicable of the importantcomponents, and the linkages among them. Systems analysisoften begins with a conceptual model which, even if lackingquantification, is a useful means of changing ones thinking to amulti-issue approach. If possible, conceptual models areoperationalized by quantification (using the best availablescientific knowledge) of the stocks and flows of the relevantcomponents of the problem, and the processes that are involved.In this paper, a systems approach to food production is used tolink various atmospheric issues such as regional acidification andclimatic change. A spreadsheet model of food demand andproduction in various world regions examined the possible effectof atmospheric change on how much food we can grow, andwhether or not we may be able to meet the increased demand inthe year 2025. Using relatively modest changes in factors ofagricultural production, the spreadsheet model calculated globalshortfalls by the year 2025 of the order of 10 to 20% in someimportant agricultural crops, despite the improvements in cropproduction factors that are envisaged by the Food andAgricultural Organization from now until the year 2010, and thatwere extrapolated in this paper to 2025. The model alsocalculated that climatic change in combination with eithertropospheric ozone or increased UV-B radiation caused bydepletion of the stratospheric ozone layer may in general makethe situation worse than in the case of climatic change alone.Given the large uncertainties in the input data, the results in thispaper should not be viewed as predictions but rather as anexample of taking a relatively simple systems approach to foodproduction using a spreadsheet model, and calculating the effectsthat various aspects of atmospheric change might have upon it.Therefore, it is extremely important to know the effects uponcrop production factors of climatic change, tropospheric ozoneand increased UV-B radiation not only as individual issues, butalso of their combined effect since it is probable that in manyregions they will occur in combination.     

Water quality decline in coastal aquifers under anthropic pressure: the case of a suburban area of Dakar (Senegal)

In recent years, the unregulated increase of the population in coastal areas of developing countries has become source of concern for both water supply and quality control. In the region of Dakar (Senegal), approximately 80% of water resources come from groundwater reservoirs, which are increasingly affected by anthropogenic pressures. The identification of the main sources of pollution, and thus the aquifer vulnerability, is essential to provide a sound basis for the implementation of long-term geochemically based water management plans in this sub-Saharan area. With this aim, a hydrochemical and isotopic survey on 26 wells was performed in the so-called Peninsula of Cap-Vert. Results show that seawater intrusion represents the main process affecting groundwater chemical characteristics. Nitrates often exceed the World Health Organization drinking water limits: stable isotopes of dissolved nitrate ( $\updelta ^{15}$ N and $\updelta ^{18}$ O) indicate urban sewage and fertilizers as a major source of contamination. Results depict a complex situation in which groundwater is affected by direct and indirect infiltration of effluents, mixing with seawater and freshening processes from below. Besides the relevance of the investigation at a regional level, it represents a basis for decision-making processes in an integrated water resources management and in the planning of similar monitoring strategies for other urban coastal regions.