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1.
We derive conditions that must be satisfied by the primitives of the problem in order for an equilibrium in linear Markov strategies to exist in some common property natural resource differential games. These conditions impose restrictions on the admissible form of the natural growth function, given a benefit function, or on the admissible form of the benefit function, given a natural growth function.
Gérard GaudetEmail:
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2.
In this paper, the global agricultural land use model Kleines Land Use Model is coupled to an extended version of the computable general equilibrium model (CGE) Global Trade Analysis Project in order to consistently assess the integrated impacts of climate change on global cropland allocation and its implication for economic development. The methodology is innovative as it introduces dynamic economic land-use decisions based also on the biophysical aspects of land into a state-of-the-art CGE; it further allows the projection of resulting changes in cropland patterns on a spatially more explicit level. A convergence test and illustrative future simulations underpin the robustness and potentials of the coupled system. Reference simulations with the uncoupled models emphasise the impact and relevance of the coupling; the results of coupled and uncoupled simulations can differ by several hundred percent.
Francesco BoselloEmail: Email:
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3.
A mixed-integer programming model that minimizes the social abatement cost is used to investigate whether a market equilibrium condition could be reached in a newly proposed permit-trading market for nitrogen oxide control in Taiwan. Unlike in previous studies, unit pollution abatement cost is determined endogenously by incorporating technology adoption as a binary decision variable. The results show that when technologies are lumpy and irreversible, disequilibrium might occur due to firms’ inability to manage their emission levels after installing equipment with fixed size and control capacity.
Chao-ning LiaoEmail:
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4.
This paper is concerned with the cost efficiency in achieving the Swedish national air quality objectives under uncertainty. To realize an ecologically sustainable society, the parliament has approved a set of interim and long-term pollution reduction targets. However, there are considerable quantification uncertainties on the effectiveness of the proposed pollution reduction measures. In this paper, we develop a multivariate stochastic control framework to deal with the cost efficiency problem with multiple pollutants. Based on the cost and technological data collected by several national authorities, we explore the implications of alternative probabilistic constraints. It is found that a composite probabilistic constraint induces considerably lower abatement cost than separable probabilistic restrictions. The trend is reinforced by the presence of positive correlations between reductions in the multiple pollutants.
Chuan-Zhong LiEmail:
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5.
A probabilistic Bayesian method called weights of evidence (WofE) was used to develop a synthetic dataset of cattle farm locations at a national scale across Australia. The synthetic dataset was required for the modelling of livestock movements with a view to assessing biosecurity implications. The WofE method is based on the analysis of spatial relationships between evidential patterns with respect to an event, such as the actual location of a farm. The evidential patterns of cattle farms were derived from maps of land use, land tenure, drainage systems, roads, settlements and long-term averaged rainfall. These evidential patterns were used for delineating and ranking land areas suitable for cattle farming. For each evidential pattern statistics such as a positive weight, a negative weight and a contrast were calculated for estimating the degree of correlation between the evidential patterns and known farm locations. The integrated evidential patterns of known farms were then used for estimating posterior probabilities and splitting land into five different classes according to its suitability for farming.
I. V. EmelyanovaEmail:
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6.
This paper analyses the evolution of water consumption in Milan during the twentieth century. However, dealing with a century time series raises some complicated statistic and econometric issues. To study the main research questions outlined by the literature, as the presence of consumption habits and the link between consumption and price, we use a quite original approach – based on intervention analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) – which seems to be more adequate than “regression-type” approaches to study a so long time series. Results indicate (1) how some events have modified the normal evolution of per-capita water consumption; (2) that per-capita water consumption is a very persistent series, namely, that water users should have well-developed consumption habits; (3) that per-capita consumption and water price present a strong negative correlation.
Mario NosvelliEmail:
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7.
Numerical models are often used to evaluate the potential impact of human alternation of natural water bodies and to help the design of the alternation to mitigate its impacts. In the past decade, three-dimensional hydrodynamic and reactive transport modeling has matured from a research subject to a practical analysis technology. This paper presents a practical study in which a three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model [hydrodynamic eutrophication model (HEM-3D)] was applied to determine the optimal location for treated wastewater discharged from marine outfall system in the Keelung harbor and the adjacent coastal sea. First, model validation was conducted with respect to surface elevation, current, and water quality variables measured in the Keelung harbor station and its coastal sea. The overall performance of the model was in qualitative agreement with the available field data. The model was then used to evaluate several scenarios of the locations from marine outfall system. Based on model simulation results, a location at the northeast of Ho-Ping Island was recommended for adoption because the environmental impact is smaller than any other alternative.
Wen-Cheng LiuEmail:
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8.
This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modeling. In a second part, a climateeconomy feedback is defined and characterized. The following results were found. 1) It has a long characteristic time, which lies between 50 and 100 years depending on the hypotheses; this time scale is long when compared to the system's other time scales, and the feedback cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change. 2) Mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy can be significant only after a 20-year delay and is really efficient only after at least 50 years. 3) Even discounted, production changes due to an action on emissions are significant over more than one century. 4) The methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth.
Stéphane HallegatteEmail:
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9.
Global Warming Potential (GWP) is an index used to measure the cumulative radiative forcing of a tonne of greenhouse house gas (GHG) relative to that of a ‘reference’ gas (CO2). Under the Kyoto Protocol, GWP can be used as a fixed index to govern the trade-off between different GHGs in a multi-gas approach to GHGs abatement. The use of fixed GWPs has been criticized for not being very cost effective compared to the use of some flexible indices. To gain wider acceptance, however, a flexible index must also prove to be easy to use, and the economic gains from its adoption must be significant. In this paper, we develop a flexible index based on the concept of marginal rather than cumulative or average global warming potentials. These marginal global warming potentials (MGWPs) can be endogenously determined within a climate model given a particular climate objective based on radiative forcing level. The MGPWs are then linked to the marginal abatement costs of the GHGs, which are also endogenously determined within an economic model. When the two concepts are linked in this way, the result is a cost-effective way of achieving a particular climate change objective with multigas abatement. We show that the savings in costs when using this flexible MGPWs can be significant, and more importantly, they are not uniformly distributed across different regions.
Claudia KemfertEmail:
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10.
A 2-D mathematical model to simulate the temperature distribution, coke formation, and change in residual extractable oil during remediation by low-temperature oxidation (LTO) process was developed. Simulation results indicate that the spacing between wells, pressure difference, and air-injection temperature and different well patterns influence the temperature distribution and consequently the level of remediation in the soil. The model results for coke formation and residual extractable oil distribution compared well with experimental results. The operating conditions—air-injection temperature of about 200°C, air-injection pressure of 6 to 10 kPa, air-extraction pressure of −110 Pa, and wells spaced 1 m apart installed in a nine-spot pattern—provide good remediation of hydrocarbons in soil by LTO process.
G. AchariEmail:
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