共查询到10条相似文献,搜索用时 93 毫秒
1.
This paper analyses the evolution of water consumption in Milan during the twentieth century. However, dealing with a century
time series raises some complicated statistic and econometric issues. To study the main research questions outlined by the
literature, as the presence of consumption habits and the link between consumption and price, we use a quite original approach
– based on intervention analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) – which seems to be more adequate than “regression-type”
approaches to study a so long time series. Results indicate (1) how some events have modified the normal evolution of per-capita
water consumption; (2) that per-capita water consumption is a very persistent series, namely, that water users should have
well-developed consumption habits; (3) that per-capita consumption and water price present a strong negative correlation.
相似文献
Mario NosvelliEmail: |
2.
A mixed-integer programming model that minimizes the social abatement cost is used to investigate whether a market equilibrium
condition could be reached in a newly proposed permit-trading market for nitrogen oxide control in Taiwan. Unlike in previous
studies, unit pollution abatement cost is determined endogenously by incorporating technology adoption as a binary decision
variable. The results show that when technologies are lumpy and irreversible, disequilibrium might occur due to firms’ inability
to manage their emission levels after installing equipment with fixed size and control capacity.
相似文献
Chao-ning LiaoEmail: |
3.
A Global Model Tracking Water, Nitrogen, and Land Inputs and Virtual Transfers from Industrialized Meat Production and Trade 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Marshall Burke Kirsten Oleson Ellen McCullough Joanne Gaskell 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2009,14(2):179-193
Rising populations and incomes throughout the world have boosted meat demand by over 75% in the last 20years, intensifying
pressures on production systems and the natural resources to which they are linked. As a growing proportion of global meat
production is traded, the environmental impacts of production become increasingly separated from where the meat is consumed.
In this paper, we quantify the use of three important resources associated with industrial livestock production and trade—water,
land, and nitrogen—using a country-specific model that combines trade, agronomic, biogeochemical, and hydrological data. Our
model focuses on pigs and chickens, as these animals are raised predominantly in intensive systems using concentrated, compound
feeds. The results describe the geographical patterns of environmental resource use due to meat production, trade, and consumption.
We show that US feed, animal, and meat destined for export require almost as much nitrogen and land, and 20% more water, than
products destined for domestic consumption. Model results also demonstrate that among various production factors, improvements
in crop yields and animal feed conversion efficiencies result in the most significant reductions in environmental harm. By
explicitly tracking the externalities of meat production, we hope to bolster suppliers’ accountability and provide better
information to meat consumers.
相似文献
Kirsten OlesonEmail: |
4.
We derive conditions that must be satisfied by the primitives of the problem in order for an equilibrium in linear Markov
strategies to exist in some common property natural resource differential games. These conditions impose restrictions on the
admissible form of the natural growth function, given a benefit function, or on the admissible form of the benefit function,
given a natural growth function.
相似文献
Gérard GaudetEmail: |
5.
This paper offers an interpretation of the precautionary principle in terms of a safety target that a decision-maker has to
reach at a minimal cost in a robust way. A two-period model is used. The precautionary principle corresponds to a situation
in which the decision-maker, facing an ex ante indecision, is not able to reach a safe target from the initial condition in a worst-case framework. However, he can efficiently
succeed whenever the uncertainty at the second period is revealed to him. An example coping with the management of a renewable
resource illustrates the general results of the paper.
相似文献
Jean-Christophe PereauEmail: |
6.
This paper is concerned with the cost efficiency in achieving the Swedish national air quality objectives under uncertainty.
To realize an ecologically sustainable society, the parliament has approved a set of interim and long-term pollution reduction
targets. However, there are considerable quantification uncertainties on the effectiveness of the proposed pollution reduction
measures. In this paper, we develop a multivariate stochastic control framework to deal with the cost efficiency problem with
multiple pollutants. Based on the cost and technological data collected by several national authorities, we explore the implications
of alternative probabilistic constraints. It is found that a composite probabilistic constraint induces considerably lower
abatement cost than separable probabilistic restrictions. The trend is reinforced by the presence of positive correlations
between reductions in the multiple pollutants.
相似文献
Chuan-Zhong LiEmail: |
7.
I. V. Emelyanova G. E. Donald D. J. Miron D. A. Henry M. G. Garner 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2009,14(4):449-465
A probabilistic Bayesian method called weights of evidence (WofE) was used to develop a synthetic dataset of cattle farm locations at a national scale across Australia. The synthetic
dataset was required for the modelling of livestock movements with a view to assessing biosecurity implications. The WofE method is based on the analysis of spatial relationships between evidential patterns with respect to an event, such
as the actual location of a farm. The evidential patterns of cattle farms were derived from maps of land use, land tenure,
drainage systems, roads, settlements and long-term averaged rainfall. These evidential patterns were used for delineating
and ranking land areas suitable for cattle farming. For each evidential pattern statistics such as a positive weight, a negative weight and a contrast were calculated for estimating the degree of correlation between the evidential patterns and known farm locations. The integrated
evidential patterns of known farms were then used for estimating posterior probabilities and splitting land into five different
classes according to its suitability for farming.
相似文献
I. V. EmelyanovaEmail: |
8.
The sensitivity of an integrated model to assess the potential for wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to variations
in key parameters controlling different physical and biological processes was evaluated. The estimated number of farms at
risk is sensitive to the virus strain used and the accompanying effective contact rate. The C Noville strain increased the
estimated number of exposed farms ranked as high and medium risk of being infected by a factor of 5, compared to the baseline,
based on the O UKG 2001 strain. The inclusion of a model for biological ageing of the virus can also have a significant effect
on the concentration patterns arising from transport and dispersion of the virus. Its inclusion has the practical advantage
of markedly reducing the time required for the calculations. The estimated number of farms affected by exposure to high and
medium virus concentrations is not grossly sensitive to attenuation caused by temperature or relative humidity effects. Changes
in susceptibility to infection, as determined by the parameter θ in the exposure-risk model, does not change the configuration of the virus plumes, but it does change the distribution of
farms at risk by risk category. These findings suggest that a good understanding of characteristics (excretion rates from
infected animals, susceptibility of different species to infection, virus survival, etc.) of the virus strain involved in
an FMD outbreak is necessary to provide a reliable assessment of the risk of wind-borne spread. In the event of an incursion
of FMD, provision for laboratory studies on the virus will be an essential component of the disease response and should be
factored into contingency plans.
相似文献
X. YangEmail: |
9.
Kerstin Ronneberger Maria Berrittella Francesco Bosello Richard S. J. Tol 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2009,14(2):149-168
In this paper, the global agricultural land use model Kleines Land Use Model is coupled to an extended version of the computable general equilibrium model (CGE) Global Trade Analysis
Project in order to consistently assess the integrated impacts of climate change on global cropland allocation and its implication
for economic development. The methodology is innovative as it introduces dynamic economic land-use decisions based also on
the biophysical aspects of land into a state-of-the-art CGE; it further allows the projection of resulting changes in cropland
patterns on a spatially more explicit level. A convergence test and illustrative future simulations underpin the robustness
and potentials of the coupled system. Reference simulations with the uncoupled models emphasise the impact and relevance of
the coupling; the results of coupled and uncoupled simulations can differ by several hundred percent.
相似文献
Francesco BoselloEmail: Email: |
10.
Global Warming Potential (GWP) is an index used to measure the cumulative radiative forcing of a tonne of greenhouse house
gas (GHG) relative to that of a ‘reference’ gas (CO2). Under the Kyoto Protocol, GWP can be used as a fixed index to govern the trade-off between different GHGs in a multi-gas approach to GHGs abatement. The use of fixed GWPs has
been criticized for not being very cost effective compared to the use of some flexible indices. To gain wider acceptance, however, a flexible index must also prove to be easy to use, and the economic gains from
its adoption must be significant. In this paper, we develop a flexible index based on the concept of marginal rather than cumulative or average global warming potentials. These marginal global warming potentials (MGWPs) can be endogenously
determined within a climate model given a particular climate objective based on radiative forcing level. The MGPWs are then
linked to the marginal abatement costs of the GHGs, which are also endogenously determined within an economic model. When
the two concepts are linked in this way, the result is a cost-effective way of achieving a particular climate change objective
with multigas abatement. We show that the savings in costs when using this flexible MGPWs can be significant, and more importantly,
they are not uniformly distributed across different regions.
相似文献
Claudia KemfertEmail: |