Comparative environmental threat analysis: Three case studies

In comparative threat analysis, threats imposed by different environmental problems are measured and compared. This type of analysis can be used to assess the overall threat to the environment, and to identify the most serious threat (key problem) and areas which are particularly threatened (problem areas). Fundamental to comparative threat analysis is a common yardstick by which stresses imposed by different environmental problems can be compared. Such a yardstick may be the carrying capacity of the environment for environmental loads.In this paper we review how carrying capacity for different environmental problems is operationalized. Next, we discuss whether it is possible to compare threats, using the exceeding of carrying capacity as a yardstick. We point out problems and uncertainties in such a comparative threat analysis using three case studies: threats to European groundwater resources; threats to ecosystems in Europe; and threats to ecosystems, human health and groundwater resources in the Netherlands. On the basis of the results we advocate the application of risk assessment to enhance methodological uniformity in assessing protection levels for different environmental problems.     

Assessing regional environmental quality by integrated use of remote sensing,GIS, and spatial multi-criteria evaluation for prioritization of environmental restoration

This study was an attempt to analyse the regional environmental quality with the application of remote sensing, geographical information system, and spatial multiple criteria decision analysis and, to project a quantitative method applicable to identify the status of the regional environment of the study area. Using spatial multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) approach with expert knowledge in this study, an integrated regional environmental quality index (REQI) was computed and classified into five levels of regional environment quality viz. worse, poor, moderate, good, and very good. During the process, a set of spatial criteria were selected (here, 15 criterions) together with the degree of importance of criteria in sustainability of the regional environment. Integrated remote sensing and GIS technique and models were applied to generate the necessary factors (criterions) maps for the SMCE approach. The ranking, along with expected value method, was used to standardize the factors and on the other hand, an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was applied for calculating factor weights. The entire process was executed in the integrated land and water information system (ILWIS) software tool that supports SMCE. The analysis showed that the overall regional environmental quality of the area was at moderate level and was partly determined by elevation. Areas under worse and poor quality of environment indicated that the regional environmental status showed decline in these parts of the county. The study also revealed that the human activities, vegetation condition, soil erosion, topography, climate, and soil conditions have serious influence on the regional environment condition of the area. Considering the regional characteristics of environmental quality, priority, and practical needs for environmental restoration, the study area was further regionalized into four priority areas which may serve as base areas of decision making for the recovery, rebuilding, and protection of the environment.     

Emergy Analysis of Human Carrying Capacity and Regional Sustainability: an Example Using the State of Maine

The human carrying capacity for a region at a specified standard of living depends on the economic and environmental resources of the region and the exchange of resources across regional boundaries. The length of time that a human population living at a given standard can be sustained depends on the rates of use and renewal of the resource base. All environmental, economic, and social resources are produced as a result of energy transformations; therefore, the energy required for their production can be specified and evaluated in common terms by converting their energy values into emergy. Emergy is defined as the available energy of one kind, previously used up directly and indirectly to make a product or service. Its unit is the emjoule. Emergy values and indices are used to evaluate the resource base for Maine, a politically defined region, and to estimate its human carrying capacity at the 1980 standard of living and for possible future resource bases. Emergy indices for Maine are compared with similar indices for Florida, Texas, and the United States to demonstrate variations in human carrying capacity and sustainability among different regions. The 1980 standard of living for Maine, Florida, Texas, and the Nation as measured by emergy use per person fell within a relatively narrow range of 3.4E16 to 4.3E16 solar emjoules y-1. The human carrying capacity for a region is considered within a pulsing paradigm for sustainability and within the constraints provided by a renewable resource base. For example, in the short-term the developed human carrying capacity for Maine is largely determined by the fuel emergy inflow relative to renewable emergy resources. If purchased emergy inflows relative to Maine's renewable emergy increase to the average ratio for a developed country around 1980, the population living in Maine at 1980 standards could increase to 2.9 million or 2.6 times Maine's 1980 population. In contrast, the human carrying capacity based on Maine's renewable resources alone was 0.37 million people at the 1980 standard of living or 33% of the 1980 population.     

新疆生态环境质量综合评价研究

合适的评价指标体系对正确评价区域的生态环境质量起关键的决定性作用。本文综合前人的研究成果，应用RS和GIS技术，采用综合指数评价法，对全疆区域的生态环境质量进行评价、排序及分级，由此得出符合实际的全疆生态环境质量状况。结果表明，全疆生态环境质量总体较差，北疆生态环境质量优于南疆，北疆西部生态环境质量优于北疆东部地区。     

区域水环境监测网络优化及评价考核方法研究

科学合理地布设水质监测断面是全面准确获取水环境质量监测数据的前提条件。利用研究区域现有断面2014年的监测数据,结合水资源调度方式和水环境功能区划要求,划分为五大片区并采用聚类分析方法进行断面优化,通过F检验和t检验表明优化前后断面无显著差异。同时,提出了一种综合的水环境质量考核办法——区域水环境综合评价考核指标,该指标包括骨干河道、乡村河道两类考核断面,采用综合水质评价与单因子评价相结合的方法,设置适当的权重系数,评价结果较为全面、客观地反映区域水环境质量状况,基本满足对区域水环境质量考核评价的管理需求。     

基于PCA的区域环境质量综合评价及应用实例研究

区域环境质量综合评价是"十二五"期间环境综合分析的发展方向。基于主成分分析理论,借助SPSS软件,对山东省某市2003—2008年空气环境质量进行综合评价。结果表明,该市的空气环境质量远优于二级标准,总体处于良好水平。对大汶河水质进行综合评价,结果表明,寨子桥、东周水库和王台大桥3个监测断面水质较好,角峪和大汶口监测断面的水质较差,有机污染物是造成大汶河水质污染的主要原因。以上结果均与实际拟合度较好,PCA法是环境质量综合评价中一种简单易行的有效方法。     

The Ecological Footprint: an Indicator of Progress Toward Regional Sustainability

We define regional sustainability as the continuous support of human quality of life within a region's ecological carrying capacity. To achieve regional sustainability, one must first assess the current situation. That is, indicators of status and progress are required. The ecological footprint is an area-based indicator which quantifies the intensity of human resource use and waste discharge activity in relation to a region's ecological carrying capacity. If the ecological footprint of a human population is greater than the area which it occupies, the population must be doing at least one of the following: receiving resources from elsewhere, disposing of some of its waste outside of the area, or depleting the area's natural capital stocks. To achieve global sustainability, the sum of all regional footprints must not exceed the total area of the biosphere. This paper explains the mechanics of a footprint calculation method for nations and regions. As the method is standardized, the relative ecological load imposed by nations and regions can be compared. Further, a nation's or region's consumption can be contrasted with its local ecological production, providing an indicator of potential vulnerability and contribution to ecological decline.     

Development of a new risk-based framework to guide investment in water quality monitoring

An innovative framework for optimising investments in water quality monitoring has been developed for use by water and environmental agencies. By utilising historical data, investigating the accuracy of monitoring methods and considering the risk tolerance of the management agency, this new methodology calculates optimum water quality monitoring frequencies for individual water bodies. Such information can be applied to water quality constituents of concern in both engineered and natural water bodies and will guide the investment of monitoring resources. Here we present both the development of the framework itself and a proof of concept by applying it to the occurrence of hazardous cyanobacterial blooms in freshwater lakes. This application to existing data demonstrates the robustness of the approach and the capacity of the framework to optimise the allocation of both monitoring and mitigation resources. When applied to cyanobacterial blooms in the Swan Coastal Plain of Western Australia, we determined that optimising the monitoring regime at individual lakes could greatly alter the overall monitoring schedule for the region, rendering it more risk averse without increasing the amount of monitoring resources required. For water resources with high-density temporal data related to constituents of concern, a similar reduction in risk may be observed by applying the framework.     

Development of groundwater quality index

Assessing the water quality status for special use is the main objective of any water quality monitoring studies. The water quality index (WQI) is a mathematical instrument used to transform large quantities of water quality data into a single number which represents the water quality level. In fact, developing WQI in an area is a fundamental process in the planning of land use and water resources management. In this study, a simple methodology based on multivariate analysis is developed to create a groundwater quality index (GWQI), with the aim of identifying places with best quality for drinking within the Qazvin province, west central of Iran. The methodology is based on the definition of GWQI using average value of eight cation and anion parameters for 163 wells during a 3-year period. The proportion of observed concentrations to the maximum allowable concentration is calculated as normalized value of each parameter in observing wells. Final indices for each well are calculated considering weight of each parameter. In order to assess the groundwater quality of study area, the derived indices are compared with those of well-known mineral waters. Using developed indices, groundwater iso-index map for study area and the map of areas of which the indices are near to mineral waters was drawn. In the case study, the GWQI map reveals that groundwater quality in two areas is extremely near to mineral water quality. Created index map provides a comprehensive picture of easily interpretable for regional decision makers for better planning and management.     

Comparison of Nitrate Levels in Raw Water and Finished Water from Historical Monitoring Data on Iowa Municipal Drinking Water Supplies

Nitrate contamination of water sources is a concern where large amounts of nitrogen fertilizers are regularly applied to soils. Ingested nitrate from dietary sources and drinking water can be converted to nitrite and ultimately to N-nitroso compounds, many of which are known carcinogens. Epidemiologic studies of drinking water nitrate and cancer report mixed findings; a criticism is the use of nitrate concentrations from retrospective drinking water data to assign exposure levels. Residential point-of-use nitrate data are scarce; gaps in historical data for municipal supply finished water hamper exposure classification efforts. We used generalized linear regression models to estimate and compare historical raw water and finished water nitrate levels (1960s--1990s) in single source Iowa municipal supplies to determine whether raw water monitoring data could supplement finished water data to improve exposure assessment. Comparison of raw water and finished water samples (same sampling date) showed a significant difference in nitrate levels in municipalities using rivers; municipalities using other surface water or alluvial groundwater had no difference in nitrate levels. A regional aggregation of alluvial groundwater municipalities was constructed based on results from a previous study showing regional differences in nitrate contamination of private wells; results from this analysis were mixed, dependent upon region and decade. These analyses demonstrate using historical raw water nitrate monitoring data to supplement finished water data for exposure assessment is appropriate for individual Iowa municipal supplies using alluvial groundwater, lakes or reservoirs. Using alluvial raw water data on a regional basis is dependent on region and decade.     

淮河干流河南段水质预测模型试验研究

淮河干流在河南省境内总长417 km,随着区域经济的发展和人口的增长,淮河干流水环境质量形势不容乐观。根据水体扩散理论,建立了淮河干流水质预测相关模型,并进行了科学验证。对淮河干流河南段氨氮、化学需氧量衰减系数及富氧和耗氧系数4个项目开展现场试验及科学分析,为水资源保护规划中计算水体纳污能力、预测污染物浓度、制定污染物控制方案等提供坚实基础和技术支持。     

基于新空气质量标准的全国大气环境承载力评价

随着中国环境问题特别是大气环境问题的凸显,环境承载能力研究成为国内各界关注的热点。采用大气污染物年均质量浓度与新的空气质量标准比较的方法即超标倍数法,对全国330个地级城市进行大气环境承载力评价。评价结果表明,有70%的城市大气环境超载,大气环境承载形势严峻。超载最严重地区为京津冀及周边区域,长三角地区、中部大部分地区。PM2.5为大多数重点城市超载的首要污染物。通过对比大气环境承载指数与污染物排放总量、污染排放强度、人口、第二产业、地形、气象等因素的相关关系发现,不同地区主要影响因素不同,应该采取分区域、季节等差别化手段控制污染物排放,提高环境承载能力。     

一种新的城市群大气环境承载力评价方法及应用

针对中国国土资源环境承载力评价研究理论与方法存在不足的情况,以全国主体功能区中处于优化开发区域的5个城市群为例,用一种新的方法评价城市大气环境纳污承载力。以城市大气污染防治标准为基础,根据不同级别城市空气污染指数所对应的天数占全年监测天数的比例,确定5个城市群的城市大气环境纳污承载力底限水平得分。评价结果表明,快速增长的经济给大城市的大气环境带来巨大压力,处于优化开发区的珠三角城市群的大气环境纳污承载力得分87.13,为较高承载级别。其他城市群得分从高到低依次为辽中南(78.73)、京津冀(77.92)、长三角(77.23)、山东半岛(76.32),均为中承载级别。要使这些城市群保持良好的空气环境,必须加大污染防治力度,优化国土规划空间布局,在大力发展经济的同时,兼顾其对环境的负面影响。     

江苏省环境与社会经济发展特征分析及对策

环境与社会经济发展既相互促进又相互制约,研究经济持续增长背景下的两者发展特征与关系,对于采取经济环境一体化的综合决策、促进可持续发展具有现实指导意义。利用1991—2010年江苏省社会经济、污染物排放和环境质量数据,采用相关性分析、趋势分析等方法,对江苏省主要社会经济与环境指标发展变化特征进行了系统分析。结果表明,1991—2010年间江苏省社会经济发展呈现持续增长态势,由此带来的资源能源与环境压力亦持续增加;同时,由于实施了一系列政策措施,有效减缓、控制了污染排放和环境质量恶化趋势,但仍面临环境承载能力薄弱、经济结构偏重、能源消费不合理、区域发展不均衡等影响环境与社会经济协调发展的问题。为此,提出进一步处理好经济发展、社会进步与生态环境保护关系的对策建议。     

Assessment of flood adaptive capacity of urban areas in Thailand

Urban floods have a significant impact on the economy, livelihoods, and daily activities. Despite extensive research on flood adaptation, there is a lack of consensus on ways to assess flood adaptive capacity. This research thus proposes an assessment framework of flood adaptive capacity of urban residents in flood-prone areas. The indicators are based on six components: economic resources, social capital, awareness and training, technology, infrastructure, and institutions and policies. The relevancy of the indicators was evaluated by experts in related fields, and a questionnaire was developed to collect data from a random sample of 230 households in 10 flood-prone municipalities in Thailand. Statistical analysis and structural equation modeling were subsequently performed to validate the components and indicators, and a flood-adaptability questionnaire was constructed. As a trial implementation, the questionnaire was applied to a target flood-prone municipality, Phetchaburi, to assess its adaptive capacity to flooding, expressed as flood adaptive capacity index. The adaptive capacity of Phetchaburi municipality to flooding was found to be high indicating the improvement in economic resources and infrastructure components. These findings reveal that the proposed framework is suitable for assessing the flood adaptive capacity of urban residents and useful for integrated flood risk assessment and management.     

Earth system analysis and management

A research strategy based upon models of intermediate complexity addressing crucial aspects of global environmental change is presented. The key idea behind that strategy is to compress system complexity either by formal techniques such that first-order aspects are preserved, or to employ semi-qualitative schemes to describe and simulate the dominant dynamical patterns identified by panoramic inspection.Specific realizations of the overall heuristic philosophy are introduced as elements of a comprehensive research program on global change. Topics encompass global climate modeling, a decision analysis framework for managing the global warming problem by balancing adaptation and mitigation efforts, a generic approach to integrated regional climate impact assessment and its implementation in specific regions, as well as a new technique to link regional and global patterns of environmental change by using advanced modeling tools.     

基于PSO-PPE模型的黑龙江省水资源生态安全探析

针对黑龙江省水资源生态环境现状,构建以水资源、社会经济、生态环境为子系统的水资源生态安全评价指标体系。运用粒子群算法(PSO)优化投影寻踪评价模型(PPE),对黑龙江省水资源生态安全进行研究。结果表明,该地区2003—2016年水资源生态安全整体呈现上升趋势。水资源污染指数和工业万元产值耗水量等指标状态的极大改善,使得2009、2013年水资源生态安全程度分别较前一年增加67.16%和98.76%。2003—2016年水资源、生态环境系统发展波动较大,前者略有降低,后者上升,社会经济系统(权重为0.426 5)发展最为迅速且对水资源生态安全影响最显著。对水资源生态安全影响最显著的指标有人均湿地面积、农业万元产值耗水量、水资源污染指数、工业用水比例、工业万元产值耗水量。该评价结果可为当地政府及环保部门制定政策提供理论参考。     

总大肠菌群测定中如何避免出现不定值

现行的环境监测分析方法与有关技术规范中总大肠菌群检数表里所列的几个不定值(“<”或“>”)给区域环境综合分析与评价工作带来一定的困难.为了避免在实测数据中出现不定值,实验分析人员应充分了解待检水样的环境因素以便确定合适的分析方法.对污染较重的水样要适当提高稀释倍数直至出现阴性反应.能否选择出正确的稀释度是实验成败的关键.     

Territorial vulnerability evaluation in tiber watershed

By now it has become a widespread, consistent practice in the European Union to consider very carefully and to regard as fundamental the basic needs of man, such as health and safety, in relation to all productive activities which may be regarded as a possible source of environmental deterioration. At the national legislative level, factors and elements regarding the environment (water, atmosphere, soil, subsoil, landscape, etc.) have been pointed out which require the state of quality to be characterised and vulnerability to the pressures caused by man's activities to be evaluated.This has brought about an evolution in the concept itself of environmental quality, which is understood more and more as actual satisfying of man's needs through the proper use of resources and the maintaining of an environmental equilibrium.Environmental quality can be pursued, therefore, by studying the most appropriate usage of the territory and by considering quality no longer as a hindrance, rule or imposition, but as a goal shared by all in improving the quality of life.In this study a few instruments are proposed for evaluating the overall capacity of a given environmental element or group of elements to withstand deterioration caused by outside pressure, which in this specific case is pollution from farming and livestock waste and sewage.Territorial vulnerability can thus be evaluated through a decision support tool (fuzzy logic), which allows different categories of people (researchers, politicians, planning technicians, citizens, etc.) to be involved in the evaluation process.For this study, the vulnerability evaluation was applied to a complex, homogenous territorial system, the Tiber watershed, where there are environmental resources which are particularly sensitive, owing both to their intrinsic characteristics as well as to the pressures stemming from livestock production activities, which is one of the major pollution risks along the regional drainage pattern.The use of GIS software has allowed the method of analysis and prioritising to be applied to environmental factors (weighting) as well as the rapid management of initial territorial data, also of differing types (qualitative and quantitative).The resulting product is a vulnerability map where the territory is classified on the basis of the evaluations of the degree of response to stresses induced by the livestock production activities.     

A more comprehensive and quantitative approach to corporate sustainability

This study proposes a new quantitative methodology and extendable framework to assess corporate sustainability more comprehensively and to capture interrelationships across the multiple domains of sustainability. A case study from the mining industry is presented to demonstrate the application of this new approach and its ability to extract meaningful insights regarding the company's progress towards sustainability. The comprehensive sustainability target method (CSTM) is a novel extension to an existing environmental burden sustainability assessment technique with additional focus on impacts within and across the societal and social justice domain. CSTM extends sustainability assessment recognizing planetary limits from human activity and relevant societal and community-based targets by formalizing assessment to include social and environmental beneficial impacts, as well as the interdependencies between the economic, environmental and societal domains. Outcomes from the mining industry case study reveal new insights into the sustainability of corporate operations as the comprehensive assessment framework provides a deeper and more extensive evaluation as compared to traditional sustainability assessments and corporate disclosures. In addition to maximal earth carrying capacity estimates for environmental burden targets, this study proposes that companies should assess sustainability for minimal limits applying to social beneficial impacts and maximal limits for social burden impacts. The overall theoretical construct and framework are presented to illustrate the robustness and extendibility of the technique to broadly incorporate various sustainability domains, assessment boundaries, and temporal considerations.