广州市污染季节空气质量预报效果评估及误差分析

基于广州市2016年第四季度空气质量实测及预报数据,对广州市污染季节空气质量预报效果进行了评估,结果表明,2016年第四季度广州市空气质量级别预报准确率83.7%、AQI范围预报准确率67.4%、首要污染物预报准确率67.2%、综合考核评分87.4分、相关系数0.78,预报效果总体良好,预报准确率在优良级别时相对较高,而在轻度污染以上级别时相对较低。预报误差分析表明,气象预报精细化程度不足、模式预报不确定性等客观因素,预报员缺乏对污染过程物理化学机制的深入理解等主观因素共同导致了预报的误差。     

乌鲁木齐市环境空气质量预测预报误差分析

通过对环境空气质量浓度预测预报及其误差从环境监测及气象预报的角度上进行分析，总结了误差产生的原因，对提高预报的准确性等提出了改进的方法和措施。     

最优化集成方法在城市臭氧数值预报中的应用研究

基于多模式(NAQPMS、CMAQ、CAMx、WRF-Chem)空气质量数值预报业务系统的滚动预报结果,结合站点观测资料,评估了最优化集成方法在城市臭氧数值预报中的可行性和预报效果。一年的评估结果表明:当训练期为15 d时,最优化集成方法能够得到相对较好的结果。总体而言,最优化集成方法对城市臭氧浓度变化趋势和浓度水平的预报效果明显优于单个模式,且在大部分城市优于多模式的最优预报,其预报值和观测的相关系数提高0.11以上,均方根误差降低约10μg/m~3;该方法对城市臭氧污染等级的预报能力也明显优于单个模式,特别是轻、中度污染。此外,在模拟偏差较大的城市,最优化集成方法对预报效果的改进更为显著;在模拟偏差较小的城市,该方法仍可进一步提升预报效果。     

基于机器学习的短临预报方法及其在空气质量保障中的应用

基于多个数值模式(NAQPMS、CMAQ)预报结果和站点观测资料,采用岭回归机器学习方法构建了一种多污染物短临预报方法,并应用于2017年厦门金砖国家峰会和2019年武汉军运会空气质量保障工作,评估总结了短临预报方法的可行性和预报效果。结果表明:短临预报表现出很好的预报能力,可以有效改进数值模式的预报趋势和量值。从日均模拟效果来看,短临预报的颗粒物相关系数达到0.9以上,均方根误差小于5μg/m~3,而且预报的臭氧相关系数和均方根误差分别为0.99和2μg/m~3。相较于日均数值模式预报结果,短临预报可使颗粒物和臭氧的预报相关系数至少提升16%和9%,预报均方根误差至少下降50%和86%。对于小时模拟效果,短临预报能够更好地把握颗粒物的小时变化特征,其相关系数较模式提升了0.2以上;同时短临预报能够更好地再现观测到的臭氧日循环特征,对白天的峰值和夜晚的低值预报更好,其相关系数高达0.9。总体来说,短临预报方法可为重大活动空气质量保障提供较为精准的临近预报结果,具有较好的应用价值。     

江苏省空气质量预报与实测结果比对研究

选取2015年1—8月江苏地区NAQPMS、CMAQ、CAMx、WRF-Chem 4个模式预报结果与实测值进行比对分析,结果表明,标准化分数偏差(MFB)为-0.066 5~0.201 1,标准化分数误差(MFE)最大值为0.381 8,均在理想范围内,其中CAMx预报效果相对较好,WRF-Chem有一定误差。4个模式相比,NAQPMS对于PM_(10)的模拟性能较好,各模式对PM_(2.5)模拟性能相近,CMAQ和CAMx对O_3模拟较好,WRF-Chem对CO模拟较好,各模式对SO_2和NO_2的模拟都需进一步优化。     

基于WRF-NAQPMS的一次沙尘天气预报评估

为提高沙尘天气的预报准确率,利用ECWMF再分析资料和近地面PM₁₀小时质量浓度监测数据,评估WRFNAQPMS模式对2021年3月15—21日甘肃强沙尘过程的预报能力。结果表明,WRF-NAQPMS能够在一定程度上模拟此次污染过程:WRF对“3· 15”天气系统的模拟与实况整体趋势较为一致,随着预报时效延长,气象模拟场移动偏快,导致沙尘预报场发展偏快、沙尘二次传输影响下游时间提前;近地面风向的局地偏差是导致甘肃中东部地区沙尘浓度出现预报误差的主要气象因素。NAQPMS模式对PM₁₀小时质量浓度的模拟随着预报时效增加和离沙源地距离的增大,预报误差逐步增大:在河西地区,沙尘影响时段和起沙浓度的模拟值均接近监测值,其中嘉峪关、酒泉、张掖的PM₁₀小时质量浓度模拟值与监测值相关系数r>0.8;中部地区城市的沙尘影响时段预报略有偏差,且模拟值低于监测值;受复杂下垫面和气象场预报误差影响,省内其他地区沙尘预报结果参考性较低。     

空气质量预报在世界互联网大会中的应用

为支持世界互联网大会期间大气污染管控工作，利用人工结合数值模式预报的方式在第二届到第五届世界互联网大会期间开展空气质量预报工作。多模式系统中WRF-CMAQ对乌镇及浙北区域大气污染变化的趋势模拟最好，2016—2018年对AQI日均值模拟的平均分数偏差（MFB）和平均分数误差（MFE）分别为-1.3%~1.6%和24.3%~28.3%。会前48 h、72 h和96 h空气质量等级预报准确率分别为37.5%~83.3%、33.3%~90.0%和0~89.9%。会议期间乌镇的AQI日均值48 h预报准确率为33.3%~100%，等级预报准确率为66.7%~100%。与日常空气质量预报不同，会议期间预报还应重点关注大气污染过程，如有污染可能性，需要给出污染过程的起始时间、持续范围和浓度峰值等情况及其关键时间节点，有针对性地提出大气污染管控的措施建议，为会议期间空气质量保障提供技术支撑。     

在大气自动监测多 点线性校准中仪器示值误差的分析及控制

阐述了在大气自动监测多点线性校准中，气体流量对仪器示值误差的影响，分析了标准气流量影响仪器浓度示值的原因，以及控制低浓度校准气仪器示值误差的方法。通过比较相对固定标准气流量和崮定校准气流量两种校准方法，得出校准气(或零空气)流量大小对校准气浓度的准确性影响不显著，而标准气流量大小对校准气浓度的准确性影响显著，故在大气自动监测多点线性校准中，宜采用相对固定标准气流量的办法，以降低仪器示值的误差。     

空气中PM_(10)浓度的BP神经网络预报研究

BP神经网络在空气污染预报领域的应用越来越广泛,本文建立了某市PM10浓度预报的分段BP神经网络模型。经验证所建立BP预报模型预测精度比较高,PM10日平均浓度误差大多数在-0.010～0.010mg/m3范围内,相对误差在-20%～20%范围内,表明BP神经网络对PM10的浓度预报是一种有效的工具。     

多元线性回归方法对北京地区PM2.5预报的改进应用

利用多元线性回归方法（REG）将多模式空气质量预报系统中3个模式（CMAQ、CAMx和NAQPMS）对北京市2016年PM_2.5的预报结果和观测数据进行集合，并对集合结果进行评估。结果表明：①不同模式的预报结果不尽相同，均能够反映2016年北京地区PM_2.5随时间的变化趋势，CMAQ、CAMx和NAQPMS相关系数为0.6~0.9，标准化平均偏差为-0.6~0.6。3个模式对重污染峰值预报都存在偏差，NAQPMS预报偏差低于其他模式；②基于多元线性回归集成预报模型能显著提高日均PM_2.5预报的准确率，能较好地改进不同季节模式整体高估或者低估的系统性偏差现象，春季国控平均偏差由-23 μg/m³改善至-2.3 μg/m³，冬季平均偏差降低近20 μg/m³；③利用多元线性回归方法对2016年红色预警期间小时PM_2.5订正结果显示，相关系数提高了0.13，均方根误差降低了20~30 μg/m³，并且对峰值浓度有较好的调整，预报峰值更为接近实况峰值，特别是对北部地区的改进效果较为明显，反映了实际观测数据对空气质量数值模式预报修正的研究意义和可行性。     

A New Mathematical Approach in Environmental and Life Sciences: Gene–Environment Networks and Their Dynamics

An important research area in life sciences is devoted to modeling, prediction, and dynamics of gene-expression patterns. As clearly understood in these days, this enterprise cannot become satisfactory without acknowledging the role of the environment. To a representation of past, present, and most likely future states, we also encounter measurement errors and uncertainties. This paper surveys and improves recent advances in understanding the foundations and interdisciplinary implications of the newly introduced gene–environment networks, and it integrates the important theme of carbon dioxide emission reduction into the networks and dynamics. We also introduce some operational and managerial issues of practical working and decision making, expressed in terms of sliding windows, quadrants (modules) of parametric effects, and navigating (controlling) between such effects and directing them. Given data from DNA microarray experiments and environmental records, we extract nonlinear ordinary differential equations that contain parameters that have to be determined. For this, we employ modern (Chebychevian) approximation and (generalized semi-infinite) optimization. After this is provided, time- discretized dynamical systems are studied. A combinatorial algorithm with polyhedra sequences allows to detect the region of parametric stability. Finally, we analyze the topological landscape of gene–environment networks with its structural (in)stability. By embedding as a module and investigating CO₂ emission control and figuring out game theoretical aspects, we conclude. This pioneering work is theoretically elaborated, practically devoted to health care, medicine, education, living conditions, and environmental protection, and it invites the readers to future research.      

Assessing health consequences in an environmental impact assessment: The case of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol

In this article a comprehensive approach for the evaluation of possible health effects in an environmental impact assessment (EIA) is described, illustrated with the example of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol. Unlike many EIAs, we estimated quantitatively the impact of aircraft-related pollution in terms of the number of affected people for aircraft noise annoyance, odour annoyance and hypertension. In addition, an analysis of health registry data on cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and a short survey on annoyance and risk perception were carried out. The scope of a health impact assessment depends on the situation, available knowledge and data, concern in the population about the impact and the number of people concerned. It is important to pay attention to the perception of risks and concerns from all parties involved. Moreover, the results demonstrate that far more people outside the area for which standards apply were affected than inside.     

Contaminant Profiles of Two Species of Shorebirds Foraging Together at Two Neighboring Sites in South San Francisco Bay, California

The San Francisco Bay estuary isused by over one million shorebirds during springmigration and is home to several hundred thousandduring the winter. Most shorebird use occurs in thesouthern reach of the estuary (South Bay). Thereduced water circulation and discharge fromindustrial sources in the South Bay are responsiblefor the highest levels of some trace elements in theestuary. Wintering shorebirds have been found to havestrong site fidelity to areas as small as a fewkilometers in the South Bay, which may increase theirexposure to contaminants near local point sources. Inaddition, different shorebird species foraging at thesame site have been shown to have differentcontaminant burdens. Thus, our objectives were totest whether contaminant burdens differed by species,or whether contaminant burdens differed in shorebirdscollected at adjacent sites. We examined thecontaminant profiles of two species of shorebirds,long-billed dowitchers (Limnodromus scolopaceus)and western sandpipers (Calidris mauri) thatforage together at two sites, Hayward and Newark,separated by 8 km in the South Bay. We usedmultivariate analysis of variance tests to compare thecomposition of 14 elemental analytes in their livertissues and estimated their molar ratios of Hg and Se. Composite samples were used for contaminant analysesbecause of the small body size of the shorebirds. Seven elemental analytes (Ag, Ba, Be, Cr, Ni, Pb, V)were below detection limits in a majority of thesamples so statistical analyses were precluded. Inthe measurable analytes (As, Cd, Cu, Hg, Mn, Se, Zn),we found no significant intra-site differences ofcontaminant profiles for the two species. We pooledthe samples to examine inter-site differences andfound significant differences in contaminant profilesbetween shorebirds at the neighboring sites (P = 0.03). Shorebirds at Newark had higher (P < 0.05) concentrations of As, Cd, and Se than those at Hayward. Dowitchers at Newark had concentrations of Hg and Se which were highly correlated (P < 0.003) in a mean molar ratio of 1:19, similar tothat reported in other birds. In the larger dowitcherspecies, we also examined exposure to 20organochlorine compounds. Organic analyses showedthat the dowitchers had been exposed to DDE, PCBs,dieldrin and trans-nonachlor, but with no significantdifferences in concentrations between Hayward andNewark (P > 0.05).     

土壤和底泥中砷、铬、锰测定的前处理技术

试验了土壤和底泥中砷的前处理技术，其目的是能对土壤、底泥中砷、铬、锰在一次前处理中制备成试液，比色法分析。试验表明，用Ｈ２ＳＯ４－Ｈ３ＰＯ４－Ｈ２Ｏ２进行前处理是可行的。方法简单、挥发酸雾少，用标准参考物质检验证明，分解完全，数据准确，有粒较好一致性。     

An investigation on biological stability of product water generated by lab-scale and pilot-scale distillation systems

Material Disposal Area G is the primary low-levelradioactive waste disposal site at Los Alamos NationalLaboratory, New Mexico, and is adjacent to Pueblo of SanIldefonso lands. Pueblo residents and Los Alamos scientists areconcerned about radiological doses resulting from uptake of AreaG radionuclides by mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) andRocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus), then consumption ofdeer and elk meat by humans. Tissue samples were collected fromdeer and elk accidentally killed near Area G and were analyzedfor ³H, ⁹⁰Sr, total U, ²³⁸Pu, ^{239, 240}Pu,²⁴¹Am, and ¹³⁷Cs. These data were used to estimatehuman doses based on meat consumption of 23 kg y^-1. Humandoses were also modeled using RESRAD, and dose rates to deer andelk were estimated with a screening model. Dose estimates tohumans from tissue consumption were 2.9 × 10^-3 mSv y^-1and 1.6 × 10^-3 mSv y^-1 from deer and elk, respectively,and RESRAD dose estimates were of the same order of magnitude. Estimated dose rates to deer and elk were 2.1 × 10^-4 mGyd^-1 and 4.7 × 10^-4 mGy d^-1, respectively. Allestimated doses were significantly less than established exposurelimits or guidelines.     

Geochemical assessment of metal transport in glacial till during electrokinetic remediation

This paper presents the chemical speciation and retention behavior of chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), and cadmium (Cd) prior to and after the electrokinetic remediation in glacial till soil. The speciation of the metals was predicted using the chemical speciation program MINEQL⁺. The simulations were performed for single-contaminant with only Cr(VI) or Ni, and multi-contaminants consisting of: (1) Cr(VI), Ni, and Cd; (2) Cr(III), Ni and Cd; (3) Cr(VI), Cr(III), Ni and Cd; (4) Cr(VI), Ni, and Cd with reducing agents; and (5) Cr(III), Ni, and Cd with oxidizing agent (Mn). The results showed that the speciation and distribution of cationic metals [Ni, Cd, and Cr(III)] in glacial till soil remain unaffected or slightly affected during electrokinetics. This is attributed to the high pH buffering capacity of the glacial till, leading the metals to precipitate in the soil prior to and after electrokinetics. This study showed that during electrokinetics, Cr(VI) existed as anionic complex and migrated towards the anode and the migration is maximum in case of a single-contaminant system. The study also showed that near the anode in the absence of any reducing and oxidizing agent, Cr(VI) mostly adsorbed, and some of Cr(VI) reduced to Cr(III) and migrated towards the cathode and finally precipitated due to high pH conditions. Ni and Cd remain adsorbed or precipitated due to the high pH conditions throughout the soil. Among the reducing agents, the sulfide had significant effect on the migration of metals compared to ferrous ions. While in the presence of oxidizing agent (Mn), no noticeable Cr(VI) was found in the soil sample indicating the reduction of Cr(VI) to Cr(III) and the predominance of reducing conditions due to the presence of naturally occurring iron in the glacial till soil. Overall, this study provides a reasonable explanation of the speciation and distribution of chromium, nickel and cadmium during the electrokinetic remediation of glacial till soil.     

Biomonitoring of Lead, Zinc, and Cadmium in Streams Draining Lead-Mining and Non-Mining Areas, Southeast Missouri, USA

We evaluated exposure of aquatic biota to lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), and cadmium (Cd) in streams draining a Pb-mining district in southeast Missouri. Samples of plant biomass (detritus, periphyton, and filamentous algae), invertebrates (snails, crayfish, and riffle benthos), and two taxa of fish were collected from seven sites closest to mining areas (mining sites), four sites further downstream from mining (downstream sites), and eight reference sites in fall 2001. Samples of plant biomass from mining sites had highest metal concentrations, with means 10- to 60-times greater than those for reference sites. Mean metal concentrations in over 90% of samples of plant biomass from mining sites were significantly greater than those from reference sites. Mean concentrations of Pb, Zn, and Cd in most invertebrate samples from mining sites, and mean Pb concentrations in most fish samples from mining sites, were also significantly greater than those from reference sites. Concentrations of all three metals were lower in samples from downstream sites, but several samples of plant biomass from downstream sites had metal concentrations significantly greater than those from reference sites. Analysis of supplemental samples collected in the fall of 2002, a year of above-average stream discharge, had lower Pb concentrations and higher Cd concentrations than samples collected in 2001, near the end of a multi-year drought. Concentrations of Pb measured in fish and invertebrates collected from mining sites during 2001 and 2002 were similar to those measured at nearby sites in the 1970s, during the early years of mining in the Viburnum Trend. Results of this study demonstrate that long-term Pb mining activity in southeast Missouri has resulted in significantly elevated concentrations of Pb, Cd, and Zn in biota of receiving streams, compared to biota of similar streams without direct influence of mining. Our results also demonstrate that metal exposure in the study area differed significantly among sample types, habitats, and years, and that these factors should be carefully considered in the design of biomonitoring studies.     

Comparative studies on accumulation of Cr from metal solution and tannery effluent under repeated metal exposure by aquatic plants: its toxic effects

The present study demonstrates comparison of Cr accumulatingpotential by the plants of Najas indica Cham. (submerged),Vallisneria spiralis L. (rooted submerged) and Alternanthera sessilis R. Br. (rooted emergent) under repeatedmetal exposure and its effect on chlorophyll and protein concentrations. These plants were treated with different concentrations of Cr under repeated exposure in controlled laboratory conditions to assess the maximum metal accumulationpotential. The plants of V. spiralis accumulated significantly high amount of Cr under laboratory conditions incomparison to N. indica and A. sessilis. The maximumaccumulation of 1378, 458 and 201 g g^-1 dw Cr was found in the leaves of V. spiralis, N. indica and A. sessilis, respectively at 8 mg L^-1 after 9 day of Cr exposure. These plants have shown a decrease in chlorophyll andprotein concentrations with increase in Cr concentrations. In view of high accumulation of Cr in V. spiralis, the plantswere treated with different concentrations of tannery effluent collected from Common Effluent Treatment Plant, Unnao (UP). Theplants of V. spiralis treated with 100% tannery wastewatershowed the maximum accumulation (57.5 g g^-1 dw) of Cr in the roots after 10 days of exposure. The plants were foundeffective in removing Cr from solution and tannery effluent.     

Assessment of Air Quality After the Implementation of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) as Fuel in Public Transport in Delhi, India

Public transport in Delhi was amended by the Supreme Court of India to use Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) instead of diesel or petrol. After the implementation of CNG since April 2001, Delhi has the highest fraction of CNG-run public vehicles in the world and most of them were introduced within 20 months. In the present study, the concentrations of various criteria air pollutants (SPM, PM₁₀, CO, SO₂ and NO_x) and organic pollutants such as benzene, toluene, xylene (BTX) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were assessed before and after the implementation of CNG. A decreasing trend was found for PAHs, SO₂ and CO concentrations, while the NO_x level was increased in comparison to those before the implementation of CNG. Further, SPM, PM₁₀, and BTX concentrations showed no significant change after the implementation of CNG. However, the BTX concentration demonstrated a clear relation with the benzene content of gasoline. In addition to the impact of the introduction of CNG the daily variation in PAHs levels was also studied and the PAHs concentrations were observed to be relatively high between 10 pm to 6 am, which gives a proof of a relation with the limited day entry and movement of heavy vehicles in Delhi.