Adaptation to Climatic Variability and Change: Asian Perspectives on Agriculture and Food Security

The impacts of climate change on potential rice production in Asia are reviewed in the light of the adaptation to climatic variability and change. Collaborative studies carried out by IRRI and US-EPA reported that using process-based crop simulation models increasing temperature may decrease rice potential yield up to 7.4% per degree increment of temperature. When climate scenarios predicted by GCMs were applied it was demonstrated that rice production in Asia may decline by 3.8% under the climates of the next century. Moreover, changes in rainfall pattern and distribution were also found suggesting the possible shift of agricultural lands in the region. The studies however have not taken the impacts of climatic variability into account, which often produce extreme events like that caused by monsoons and El Niño. Shifts in rice-growing areas are likely to be constrained by land-use changes occurring for other developmental reasons, which may force greater cultivation of marginal lands and further deforestation. This should be taken into account and lead to more integrated assessment, especially in developing countries where land-use change is more a top-down policy rather than farmers' decision. A key question is: To what extent will improving the ability of societies to cope with current climatic variability through changing design of agricultural systems and practices help the same societies cope with the likely changes in climate?     

Participatory integrated assessment of adaptation to climate change in Alpine tourism and mountain agriculture

Winter tourism and mountain agriculture are the most important economic sectors in a major part of the Swiss Alps. Both are highly sensitive to changing climatic conditions. In the framework of the CLEAR project, results from climate impact research in the field of tourism and agricultural production were used to investigate the perception of climatic change by stakeholders and to assess possible adaptations. We used a participatory integrated assessment (PIA) to involve the knowledge, values and experiences of the various social actors in tourism and agriculture (e.g., skiers, tourism managers, farmers) in the research process. Whereas climate change may have various severe direct impacts on the tourism industry, depending on the region, agricultural production may generally benefit from changed climatic conditions. But because of the dependence of farmers on “off-farm” income, the loss due to declining winter tourism in specific areas may cause more important indirect effects. However, the two sectors may adapt actively by choosing from a variety of strategies, and the loss of income from the tourism industry may support the re-evaluation of the various functions agriculture plays in mountain regions, beyond the production of food. The study demonstrates the suitability of the PIA approach to elucidate the interactions between different stakeholders and their perception of the climate change phenomena. A similar participatory approach could be a useful tool to transfer research results and expert knowledge to the political process addressing adaptations to climate change. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Environmental water demand assessment under climate change conditions

Measures taken to cope with the possible effects of climate change on water resources management are key for the successful adaptation to such change. This work assesses the environmental water demand of the Karkheh river in the reach comprising Karkheh dam to the Hoor-al-Azim wetland, Iran, under climate change during the period 2010–2059. The assessment of the environmental demand applies (1) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and (2) downscaling methods. The first phase of this work projects temperature and rainfall in the period 2010–2059 under three RCPs and with two downscaling methods. Thus, six climatic scenarios are generated. The results showed that temperature and rainfall average would increase in the range of 1.7–5.2 and 1.9–9.2%, respectively. Subsequently, flows corresponding to the six different climatic scenarios are simulated with the unit hydrographs and component flows from rainfall, evaporation, and stream flow data (IHACRES) rainfall-runoff model and are input to the Karkheh reservoir. The simulation results indicated increases of 0.9–7.7% in the average flow under the six simulation scenarios during the period of analysis. The second phase of this paper’s methodology determines the monthly minimum environmental water demands of the Karkheh river associated with the six simulation scenarios using a hydrological method. The determined environmental demands are compared with historical ones. The results show that the temporal variation of monthly environmental demand would change under climate change conditions. Furthermore, some climatic scenarios project environmental water demand larger than and some of them project less than the baseline one.     

Socioeconomic Risks of Extreme El Niño Event-Related Road Damages in Peru

This study evaluates the socioeconomic risk that extreme El Niño event-related road damages present to Peru by combining an environmental modelling of events’ occurrences in the country with a quantitative modelling of their effects on its economy. The dynamic of occurrence of events is modelled as a stochastic process with a vector autoregressive representation based on historical climatic data, and simulated over a 10-year period with a non-parametric bootstrap procedure. The indirect consequences of events’ related road damages are addressed with a multiregional dynamic computable general equilibrium model through an increase in interregional transportation costs and, more originally, a negative externality effect on activities’ output, which is estimated beforehand using a firm database. We find that extreme El Niño events constitute a significant one-off disaster risk for the country, threatening shifts of???2.8% in GDP and?+?1.9% in poverty rates with an annual probability p?=?1.4%. We further show that they also present a longer-term risk, leading to average annual deviations from normal trend by???0.8% in GDP and?+?0.4% in poverty rate with a probability p?=?12.6% over a 10-year period. However, we finally show that Peru might reduce these socioeconomic risks associated with these non-frequent but recurrent climatic shocks in constructing more disaster-resilient road infrastructure.

     

Impact Assessment and Recommendation of Alternative Conjunctive Water Use Strategies for Salt Affected Agricultural Lands through a Field Scale Decision Support System – A Case Study

Conjunctive use of saline/non-saline irrigation waters is generally aimed at minimizing yield losses and enhancing flexibility of cropping, without much alteration in farming operations. Recommendation of location-specific suitable conjunctive water use plans requires assessment of their long-term impacts on soil salinization/sodification and crop yield reductions. This is conventionally achieved through long-term field experiments. However such impact evaluations are site specific, expensive and time consuming. Appropriate decision support systems (DSS) can be time-efficient and cost-effective means for such long-term impact evaluations. This study demonstrates the application of one such (indigenously developed) DSS for recommending best conjunctive water use plans for a, rice-wheat growing, salt affected farmer’s field in Gurgaon district of Haryana (India). Before application, the DSS was extensively validated on several farmers and controlled experimental fields in Gurgaon and Karnal districts of Haryana (India). Validation of DSS showed its potential to give realistic estimates of root zone soil salinity (with R = 0.76–0.94; AMRE = 0.03–0.06; RMSPD = 0.51–0.90); sodicity (with R = 0.99; AMRE = 0.02; RMSPD = 0.84) and relative crop yield reductions (AMRE = 0.24), under existing (local) resource management practices. Long term (10 years) root zone salt build ups and associated rice/wheat crop yield reductions, in a salt affected farmer’s field, under varied conjunctive water use scenarios were evaluated with the validated DSS. It was observed that long-term applications of canal (CW) and tube well (TW) waters in a cycle and in 1:1 mixed mode, during Kharif season, predicted higher average root zone salt reductions (2–9%) and lower rice crop yield reductions (4–5%) than the existing practice of 3-CW, 3-TW, 3-CW. Besides this, long-term application of 75% CW mixed with 25% TW, during Rabi season, predicted about 17% lower average root-zone salt reductions than the cyclic applications of (1-CW, 1-TW, 2-CW) and (2-CW, 1-TW, 1-CW, i.e., existing irrigation strategy). However, average wheat crop yield reductions (16–17%) simulated under all these strategies were almost at par. In general, cyclic-conjunctive water use strategies emerged as better options than the blending modes. These results were in complete confirmation with actual long-term conjunctive water use experiments on similar soils. It was thus observed that such pre-validated tools could be efficient means for designing, local resource and target crop yield-specific, appropriate conjunctive water use plans for irrigated agricultural lands.     

Discharge permit market and farm management nexus: an approach for eutrophication control in small basins with low-income farmers

The economic concerns of low-income farmers are barriers to nutrient abatement policies for eutrophication control in surface waters. This study brings up a perspective that focuses on integrating multiple-pollutant discharge permit markets with farm management practices. This aims to identify a more economically motivated waste load allocation (WLA) for non-point sources (NPS). For this purpose, we chose the small basin of Zrebar Lake in western Iran and used the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) for modeling. The export coefficients (ECs), effectiveness of best management practices (BMPs), and crop yields were calculated by using this software. These variables show that low-income farmers can hardly afford to invest in BMPs in a typical WLA. Conversely, a discharge permit market presents a more cost-effective solution. This method saves 64% in total abatement costs and motivates farmers by offering economic benefits. A market analysis revealed that nitrogen permits mostly cover the trades with the optimal price ranging from $6 to $30 per kilogram. However, phosphorous permits are limited for trading, and their price exceeds $60 per kilogram. This approach also emphasizes the establishment of a regional institution for market monitoring, dynamic pricing, fair fund reallocation, giving information to participants, and ensuring their income. By these sets of strategies, a WLA on the brink of failure can turn into a cost-effective and sustainable policy for eutrophication control in small basins.     

Economic Analysis of Summer Fallow Management to Reduce Take-All Disease and N Leaching in a Wheat Crop Rotation

This paper addresses the question of summer cover-crop adoption by farmers in presence of a risk of yield loss due to take-all disease and climate variability. To analyze the public incentives needed to encourage farmers to adopt summer cover crops as a means of reducing N leaching, we combine outputs from an economic, an epidemiological and an agronomic model. The economic model is a simple model of choice under risk. The farmer is assumed to choose among a range of summer fallow managements and input uses on the basis of the expected utility criterion (HARA assumption) in presence of both climate and take-all risks. The epidemiological model proposed by Ennaïfar et al. (Eur J Plant Pathol 118:127–143, 2007) is used to determine the impact of take all on yields and N uptake. The crop-soil model (STICS) is used to compute yield developments and N leaching under various management options and climatic conditions. The input parameters are chosen to match the conditions prevailing in Grignon, located in the main wheat-growing area in France. Eight management systems are examined: four summer fallow managements: ‘wheat volunteers’ (WV), ‘bare soil’ (BS), ‘early mustard’, ‘late mustard’, and two input intensities. We show that the optimal systems are BS (WV) when the take-all risk is (not) taken into account by agents. We then compute the minimum payment to each system such that it emerges in the optimum. We thus derive the required amounts of transfer needed to trigger catch-crop adoption. The results of the Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis show that the ranking of management systems is robust over a wide range of input parameters.     

Spatial and temporal estimation of soil loss for the sustainable management of a wet semi-arid watershed cluster

The ungauged wet semi-arid watershed cluster, Seethagondi, lies in the Adilabad district of Telangana in India and is prone to severe erosion and water scarcity. The runoff and soil loss data at watershed, catchment, and field level are necessary for planning soil and water conservation interventions. In this study, an attempt was made to develop a spatial soil loss estimation model for Seethagondi cluster using RUSLE coupled with ARCGIS and was used to estimate the soil loss spatially and temporally. The daily rainfall data of Aphrodite for the period from 1951 to 2007 was used, and the annual rainfall varied from 508 to 1351 mm with a mean annual rainfall of 950 mm and a mean erosivity of 6789 MJ mm ha^?1 h^?1 year^?1. Considerable variation in land use land cover especially in crop land and fallow land was observed during normal and drought years, and corresponding variation in the erosivity, C factor, and soil loss was also noted. The mean value of C factor derived from NDVI for crop land was 0.42 and 0.22 in normal year and drought years, respectively. The topography is undulating and major portion of the cluster has slope less than 10°, and 85.3 % of the cluster has soil loss below 20 t ha^?1 year^?1. The soil loss from crop land varied from 2.9 to 3.6 t ha^?1 year^?1 in low rainfall years to 31.8 to 34.7 t ha^?1 year^?1 in high rainfall years with a mean annual soil loss of 12.2 t ha^?1 year^?1. The soil loss from crop land was higher in the month of August with an annual soil loss of 13.1 and 2.9 t ha^?1 year^?1 in normal and drought year, respectively. Based on the soil loss in a normal year, the interventions recommended for 85.3 % of area of the watershed includes agronomic measures such as contour cultivation, graded bunds, strip cropping, mixed cropping, crop rotations, mulching, summer plowing, vegetative bunds, agri-horticultural system, and management practices such as broad bed furrow, raised sunken beds, and harvesting available water using farm ponds and percolation tanks. This methodology can be adopted for estimating the soil loss from similar ungauged watersheds with deficient data and for planning suitable soil and water conservation interventions for the sustainable management of the watersheds.     

Modeling of Ecological Footprint and Climate Change Impacts on Food Security of the Hill Tracts of Chittagong in Bangladesh

This paper presents an integrated and dynamic model for the management of the uplands of the Hill Tracts of Chittagong to predict food security and environmental loading for gradual transition of shifting agriculture land into horticulture crops and teak plantation, and crop land into tobacco cultivation. Food security status for gradual transmission of shifting agriculture land into horticulture crops and teak plantation, and crop land into tobacco cultivation is the best option for food security, but this causes the highest environmental loading resulting from tobacco cultivation. Considering both food security and environmental degradation in terms of ecological footprint, the best option is gradual transition of shifting agriculture land into horticulture crops which provides moderate increase in the food security with a relatively lower environmental degradation in terms of ecological footprint. Crop growth model InfoCrop was used to predict the climate change impacts on rice and maize production in the uplands of the Hill Tracts of Chittagong. Climate change impacts on the yields of rice and maize of three treatments of temperature, carbon dioxide and rainfall change (+0 °C, +0 ppm and +0 % rainfall), (+2 °C, +50 ppm and 20 % rainfall) and (+2 °C, +100 ppm and 30 % rainfall) were assessed. The yield of rice decreases for treatment 2, but it increases for treatment 3. The yield of maize increases for treatments 2 and 3 since maize is a C₄ plant. There is almost no change in food security at upazila (sub-district) level for the historical climate change scenario, but there is small change in the food security at upazila levels for IPCC climate change scenario.     

Integrating adaptation to climate change in regional plans and programmes: The role of strategic environmental assessment

Climate changes exert negative impacts on the global environments and the human beings. They imply more frequent extreme weather events, which are responsible of sea level rise, coastal erosion, flooding, droughts, and desertification. Mitigation and adaptation represent intertwined strategies for counteracting climate changes. Mitigation is associated to the lessening of the causes of climate changes and includes actions reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation is a proactive concept addressing how humans can adapt and benefit from climate change. The mainstreaming and integration of adaptation to climate change into routine practice can be favored by Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of regional policies, plans and programmes. In this study, we aim at scrutinizing a set of SEA reports of regional plans and programmes adopted in Sardinia (Italy), to investigate if -and to what extent- adaptation to climate change has characterized planning and programming tools. Evidence shows that the integration of adaptation-driven issues into regional planning is still in its infancy but presents the signs of promising expansion.     

Oak decline analyzed using intraannual radial growth indices, δ13C series and climate data from a rural hemiboreal landscape in southwesternmost Finland

Decline of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) was studied in SW Finland. This is a region where the species is growing near its northern distributional limit globally and a recent decline of mature trees has been described regionally. Tree rings of declining oaks were compared to the chronologies of healthy and oaks that died, climate series and stable isotope discrimination of carbon (δ¹³C) of comparable mature trees. The radial growth (earlywood, latewood, and annual ring width) of declining oaks was clearly deteriorated in comparison to healthy oaks, but recuperated, compared to oaks that died, through all index types. Comparison of climate relationships between growth and δ¹³C, expected to reflect oaks’ intrinsic water use efficiency, indicated enhancing resistance to droughts through the growing season. The growth and the climatic growth response was differentiated in declining oaks as compared with the healthy and oaks that died revealing that: (1) declining oaks exhibited decreasing competitive strength as indicated by reduced overall growth relative to healthy oaks, (2) the growth of declining oaks was more sensitive to winter conditions, but less restricted by summer droughts than the growth of other oaks, and (3) healthy oaks were seen having benefitted from the ongoing lengthening of the growing season. Lack of correlativity between growth and δ¹³C became evident as their responses to temperature and precipitation variations deviated drastically during the other but summer months. Our results indicate that several different ecological factors, rather than a single climatic factor (e.g., drought), are controlling the oak decline in the studied environment.     

Quantifying the effect of trend,fluctuation, and extreme event of climate change on ecosystem productivity

Climate change comprises three fractions of trend, fluctuation, and extreme event. Assessing the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystem requires an understanding of the action mechanism of these fractions, respectively. This study examined 11 years of remotely sensed-derived net primary productivity (NPP) to identify the impacts of the trend and fluctuation of climate change as well as extremely low temperatures caused by a freezing disaster on ecosystem productivity in Hunan province, China. The partial least squares regression model was used to evaluate the contributions of temperature, precipitation, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) to NPP variation. A climatic signal decomposition and contribution assessment model was proposed to decompose climate factors into trend and fluctuation components. Then, we quantitatively evaluated the contributions of each component of climatic factors to NPP variation. The results indicated that the total contribution of the temperature, precipitation, and PAR to NPP variation from 2001 to 2011 in Hunan province is 85 %, and individual contributions of the temperature, precipitation, and PAR to NPP variation are 44 % (including 34 % trend contribution and 10 % fluctuation contribution), 5 % (including 4 % trend contribution and 1 % fluctuation contribution), and 36 % (including 30 % trend contribution and 6 % fluctuation contribution), respectively. The contributions of temperature fluctuation-driven NPP were higher in the north and lower in the south, and the contributions of precipitation trend-driven NPP and PAR fluctuation-driven NPP are higher in the west and lower in the east. As an instance of occasionally triggered disturbance in 2008, extremely low temperatures and a freezing disaster produced an abrupt decrease of NPP in forest and grass ecosystems. These results prove that the climatic trend change brought about great impacts on ecosystem productivity and that climatic fluctuations and extreme events can also alter the ecosystem succession process, even resulting in an alternative trajectory. All of these findings could improve our understanding of the impacts of climate change on the provision of ecosystem functions and services and can also provide a basis for policy makers to apply adaptive measures to overcome the unfavorable influence of climate change.     

Impact of Climate Change on Date Production in Tunisia

Around the Mediterranean basin, climate change is one of the major phenomena affecting agriculture. Therefore, the mode of production and crop management will have to change radically. Our objective in this article is to examine the long-run effects of climate change on date production in Tunisia using panel cointegration covering the period from 1980 to 2014 in 24 regions. The climate of Tunisia differs in our study because we find a Saharan climate in the south and a European climate in the north. The central regions are characterized by a Mediterranean climate. Our empirical results show that the effects of climate and weather variability on date production must be considered a serious threat in Tunisia. In addition, we estimate relatively negative and variable long-run effects of temperature increase and rainfall shortages across regions on date output over the last three decades.     

Water Quality Modeling for a Typical Urban Lake Based on the EFDC Model

Urban lakes are typically characterized by fragile ecological capacities and complex management of their hydrospheric ecosystems. The aims of this study are to establish a reliable hydrodynamic-water quality model for an urban lake, to investigate the responses of water quality to different extreme hydrological conditions associated with rainstorms, and to explore the results from different modeled scenarios surrounding the pollution threats associated with a sewage leak. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic water quality model was developed in this study. The model was calibrated and validated using observed data. The model results agreed well with the observed data, and the averaged relative root mean-squared error (RRMSE) for all of the compared variables was 33.3 %. The validated model was applied to analyze water quality responses for different extreme historical rainfall scenarios from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2012. The model results indicate that for Lake Tianyinhu, rainstorms adversely affect water quality due to larger nutrient loads, generated by larger rainfall events, and the limited water storage capacity of the lake. Moreover, the responses of water quality to sewage leak events were studied through four scenarios with different leak intensities and durations. The model results indicate that sewage leaks have measureable negative effects on water quality and that it is vital to inspect and promptly eliminate any possible leaks within pipes surrounding the lake. This study may provide a useful tool for hydrological ecosystem protection and management techniques for similar urban lakes.     

Modeling the Hydroclimatic Disturbance of Soil Landscapes in the Southern Canadian Plains: The Problems of Scale and Place

The sensitivity of soil landscapes to climatic variability andhydroclimatic events can be expressed as a landscape change safety factor, the ratio of potential disturbance to resistance to change. The use of a geographic information system (GIS) enables the spatially-explicit modeling of landscape sensitivity, but also raises the risk of violating the characteristic scales of disturbance and resistance, because the GIS technically simplifies the extrapolation of models, and associated concepts, to landscapes and scales notrepresented by the digital data base. Embedding landscape sensitivity into hierarchy theory, the formal analysis of the hierarchical structure of complex systems, provides a conceptual framework for the transfer of models and variablesamong landscape scales. In the subhumid southern Canadian plains, major hydroclimatic events (strong winds, intense rain,rapid snow melt) cause much of the physical disturbance of soillandscapes and terrestrial ecosystems. Prolonged dry or wet weather influences the resistance of soil and vegetation to these events. The potential disturbance of soil landscapes therefore can be derived from the probabilities of extreme events and seasonal conditions, as recorded in instrumental and proxy climate records. This time series analysis can belinked to the modeling of landscape sensitivity by establishingthe probabilities of hydroclimatic events and climatic conditions which may exceed or lower the resistance of individual soil landscapes.     

Geo-spatial analysis of land–water resource degradation in two economically contrasting agricultural regions adjoining national capital territory (Delhi)

The present study was aimed at characterizing the soil-water resource degradation in the rural areas of Gurgaon and Mewat districts, the two economically contrasting areas in policy zones-II and III of the National Capital Region (NCR), and assessing the impact of the study area's local conditions on the type and extent of resource degradation. This involved generation of detailed spatial information on the land use, cropping pattern, farming practices, soils and surface/ground waters of Gurgaon and Mewat districts through actual resource surveys, standard laboratory methods and GIS/remote sensing techniques. The study showed that in contrast to just 2.54% (in rabi season) to 4.87% (in kharif season) of agricultural lands in Gurgaon district, about 11.77% (in rabi season) to 24.23% (in kharif season) of agricultural lands in Mewat district were irrigated with saline to marginally saline canal water. Further, about 10.69% of agricultural lands in the Gurgaon district and 42.15% of agricultural lands in the Mewat district were drain water irrigated. A large part of this surface water irrigated area, particularly in Nuh (48.7%), Nagina (33.5%), and Punhana (24.1%) blocks of Mewat district, was either waterlogged (7.4% area with 0.05 ppm). In fact, sub-surface drinking waters of some areas around battery and automobile manufacturing units in Gurgaon and Pataudi blocks were associated with exceptionally high (>0.1 ppm) Ni concentrations. In general, the ground waters of waterlogged or potentially waterlogged areas in the rural areas of Mewat were more contaminated than the ground waters in the rural areas of Gurgaon district with deeper (>5 m) water depths.Though Cr concentrations in the surface and sub-surface irrigation waters of both Gurgaon and Mewat districts were far above the maximum permissible limit of 1 ppm, their bio-available soil-Cr concentrations were well within permissible limit. Even bio-available Ni concentrations in agricultural lands of Gurgaon district associated with Ni contaminated sub-surface irrigations were well within desirable limit of 0.20 ppm. This was primarily attributed to the calcareous nature of the soils of the study area. About 35% of Gurgaon district and 59% of Mewat district irrigated with poor quality waters were salt-affected. These waterlogged/potentially waterlogged calcareous-salt affected soils of Mewat district were having acute zinc (Zn) deficiency (<0.6 ppm). Some areas with extremely high iron (Fe: 20-25 ppm) and Mn (10-25 ppm) concentrations were also noticed in the Gurgaon, Nuh and Punhana blocks. Generation of reduced conditions owing to paddy cultivation in areas with 3-3.5 m water depths appeared to be the main cause of such point contaminations. Extensive cadmium (Cd) contamination was also noticed in the waterlogged sodic agricultural lands of Nagina village in Mewat district associated with a large scale scrap automobile and battery business. The study could document the processes and provide spatially accurate information to the managers (e.g., National Capital Region Planning Board) and the concerned citizen groups. It could, in fact, clearly point out that dumping of industrial and domestic wastewaters especially from NCT-Delhi into river Yamuna and, to some extent, from NCT-Delhi re-located hazardous industrial units into Najafgarh drain tributaries at Delhi-Gurgaon boundary, and poor "off-farm" water management practices were the main reasons for extensive (point/non-point source) land-water degradation in Gurgaon and Mewat districts of NCR.     

Simulation of Nitrogen Dynamics in Soil Using Infocrop Model

Nitrogen is the most widely used fertilizer nutrient, and it is a universally deficient nutrient too, which often severely restricts the growth and yield of crops. To improve N fertilizer management, soil–plant system models can be applied to simulate adequate N supply for both, optimal crop growth and minimal N losses. The likely impact of climate change on the cereal production is of paramount importance in the planning strategies to meet the future growing needs on sustainable grounds. In this scenario models are the effective tools to foresee the probable impacts and for choosing appropriate land use options. The study reported in this thesis, employs field experiments and use of simulation tools to understand the dynamics of soil N balance and relate growth and yield of rice under varying nitrogen inputs. The InfoCrop model was used in this study, which was calibrated with the historic data sets, and subsequently validated with the field experiment conducted at IARI Farm, New Delhi. Simulated results matched well with the observed values in terms of growth and yield of rice and seasonal nitrogen uptake. The components of soil nitrogen balance differed among varying nitrogen level treatments, which was also captured by use of InfoCrop. The model was then taken to climate change impact analysis. The results clearly revealed that when temperature increased, the soil N losses, like denitrification, volatilization, N2O emission increased, whereas grain and biomass yields decreased. The further scope of the study is to validate the study in contrasting agroenvironments.     

Climate Change Impacts and Human Settlements in Africa: Prospects for Adaptation

Climate change impacts on African human settlements arise from a number of climate change-related causes, notably sea level changes, impacts on water resources, extreme weather events, food security, increased health risks from vector home diseases, and temperature-related morbidity in urban environments.Some coastlines and river deltas of Africa have densely populated low-lying areas, which would be affected by a rise in sea level. Other coastal settlements will be subjected to increased coastal erosion. Recent flooding in East Africa highlighted the vulnerability of flood plain settlements and the need to develop adaptive strategies for extreme weather events management and mitigation. In the semi arid and arid zones many settlements are associated with inland drainage water sources. Increases in drought will enhance water supply related vulnerabilities. Inter-basin and international water transfers raise the need for adequate legal frameworks that ensure equity among participating nations.Similarly, water supply and irrigation reservoirs in seasonal river catchments might fail, leading to poor sanitation in urban areas as well as food shortage. Hydroelectric power generation could be restricted in drought periods, and where it is a major contributor to the energy budget, reduced power generation could lead to a multiplicity of other impacts. States are advised to develop other sources of renewable energy.Temperature changes will lead to altered distribution of disease vectors such as mosquitoes, making settlements currently free of vector borne diseases vulnerable. Rapid breeding of the housefly could create a menace associated with enteric disorders, especially in conditions of poor sanitation.The dry savannahs of Africa are projected as possible future food deficit areas. Recurrent crop failures would lead to transmigration into urban areas. Pastoralists are likely to undertake more trans-boundary migrations and probably come into conflict with settled communities.Adaptive measures will involve methods of coastal defences (where applicable), a critical review of the energy sector, both regionally and nationally, a rigorous adherence to city hygiene procedures, an informed agricultural industry that is capable of adapting to changing climate in terms of cropping strategies, and innovations in environment design to maximise human comfort at minimum energy expenditure. In the savannah and arid areas water resource management systems will be needed to optimise water resource use and interstate co-operation where such resources are shared.Climate change issues discussed here raise the need for state support for more research and education in impacts of climate change on human settlements in Africa.     

Vegetation NDVI Linked to Temperature and Precipitation in the Upper Catchments of Yellow River

Vegetation in the upper catchment of Yellow River is critical for the ecological stability of the whole watershed. The dominant vegetation cover types in this region are grassland and forest, which can strongly influence the eco-environmental status of the whole watershed. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for grassland and forest has been calculated and its daily correlation models were deduced by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer products on 12 dates in 2000, 2003, and 2006. The responses of the NDVI values with the inter-annual grassland and forest to three climatic indices (i.e., yearly precipitation and highest and lowest temperature) were analyzed showing that, except for the lowest temperature, the yearly precipitation and highest temperature had close correlations with the NDVI values of the two vegetation communities. The value of correlation coefficients ranged from 0.815 to 0.951 (p?<?0.01). Furthermore, the interactions of NDVI values of vegetation with the climatic indicators at monthly interval were analyzed. The NDVI of vegetation and three climatic indices had strong positive correlations (larger than 0.733, p?<?0.01). The monthly correlations also provided the threshold values for the three climatic indictors, to be used for simulating vegetation growth grassland under different climate features, which is essential for the assessment of the vegetation growth and for regional environmental management.     

Statistical Modeling of Health Effects on Climate-Sensitive Variables and Assessment of Environmental Burden of Diseases Attributable to Climate Change in Nepal

An ecological time-series study is conducted to quantify health-effect coefficients associated with climate-sensitive variables namely temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and wind speed and estimate environmental burden of diseases attributed to temperature as the main climatic variable together with climate change in Nepal. The study is based upon daily data of climate-sensitive variables and hospitalizations collected for 5 years between 2009 and 2014. Generalized linear model is used to estimate health-effect coefficients accounting distributed lag effects. Results show 3.08%, 10.14%, and 3.27% rise in water-borne, vector-borne, and renal disease hospitalizations, respectively, and 3.67% rise in water- and vector-borne disease deaths per 1 °C rise in average temperature. Similarly, 2.45% and 1.44% rise in heart disease hospitalization and all-cause mortality, respectively per 1 °C rise in absolute difference of average temperature with its overall average (20 °C). The computed attributable fractions are 0.3759, 0.6696, 0.2909, and 0.1024 for water-borne, vector-borne, renal, and heart disease hospitalizations, respectively, and 0.0607 and 0.4335 for all-cause mortality and disease-specific mortality of water- and vector-borne diseases, respectively. The percent change in attributable burdens due to climate change are found to be 4.32%, 4.64%, 7.20%, and ?2.29% for water-borne, vector-borne, renal, and heart disease hospitalizations, respectively, and ?1.39% and 6.55% for all-cause deaths and water-borne and vector-borne disease deaths, respectively. In conclusion, climate-sensitive variables have significant effects on many major health burdens in Nepal. In the context of changing climatic scenarios around the world including that of Nepal, such changes are bound to affect the health burden of Nepalese people.