盐城市空气污染对呼吸系统日门诊量关系的时间序列分析

根据盐城市2014—2018年逐日空气污染物监测数据细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))、可吸入颗粒物(PM_(10))、二氧化氮(NO_2)、二氧化硫(SO_2)、臭氧(O_3)、气象数据(日平均温度、日平均相对湿度)及市区某三甲综合医院呼吸系统日门诊资料,采用时间序列半参数广义相加模型,以滞后天数最大效应值作为空气污染物对人群呼吸系统日门诊量影响的超额危险度,分析了盐城市空气污染物短期暴露对人群呼吸系统日门诊量的影响。结果表明,2014—2018年盐城市空气PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、NO_2、SO_2和O_3平均值分别为48.4,81.8,26.3,15.8和111.2 mg/m~3,其中PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)值高于《环境空气质量标准》(GB 3095—2012)二级标准。污染物PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、NO_2、SO_2和O_3值每升高10 mg/m~3,呼吸系统日门诊量就增加0.52%,0.31%,3.54%,4.36%和0.03%,SO_2效应最强。空气污染物的短期暴露影响呼吸系统日门诊量,且存在滞后效应,其中PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、NO_2、SO_2影响较大。     

南京市空气质量预报效果评估及误差分析

基于2020年南京市空气质量实况数据及预报数据,评估了当年南京市空气质量预报效果,分析了预报偏差特征及其成因。结果表明,4个季节中,秋季的空气质量指数(AQI)预报准确率评分和综合评分最高,夏季的首要污染物准确率评分最高;4个季节均出现正预报偏差,其中夏、冬季偏差大于春、秋季;首要污染物误报率与季节相关,二氧化氮(NO_(2))和可吸入颗粒物(PM_(10))的误报率较高的原因是NO_(2)和PM_(10)作为首要污染物主要出现在春、秋季,而这2个季节4种主要污染物的空气质量分指数(IAQI)值非常接近,增加了预报员经验修正的难度。典型预报偏差个例分析结果表明,模式预报对于污染物质量浓度量级的预报偏差以及预报员对气象条件和前体物质量浓度变化关注不足,是导致最终预报出现低估的主要原因。     

无锡市区大气污染物状况及变化趋势分析

使用2012—2015年无锡市区的6种大气污染物监测数据,对无锡市区各污染物的年度变化、空间分布、影响因素进行了分析。结果表明:(1)2012—2015年无锡市区SO_2、O_3质量浓度呈下降趋势,且趋势显著;NO_2质量浓度呈下降趋势,但不明显;CO、PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)的质量浓度年际变化比较平稳。(2)无锡市区SO_2、NO_2、PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)、CO的空气质量分指数(IAQI)均为冬季最高、夏季最低;O_3的IAQI则为夏季最高、冬季最低。(3)SO_2、NO_2、PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)、CO浓度间呈两两正相关,且相关性极显著;O_3浓度与NO_2、CO呈显著负相关,与SO_2、PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)浓度之间没有明显的关联。(4)分析了无锡市区各项大气污染物浓度的空间分布特征。(5)SO_2、NO_2、PM_(10)浓度周内变化具有"周末效应"的特征,而O_3、CO和PM_(2.5)浓度周内变化出现"反周末效应"。     

睢宁地区大气PM_(2.5)及气态污染物季节性变化特征

根据2014年全年实时在线观测数据,分析了徐州睢宁地区大气细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))和气态污染物(包括SO_2、CO、NO_x、O_3)质量浓度的季节性变化特征。结合后向轨迹模型,分析不同气团对该地区大气污染浓度的影响。PM_(2.5)与O_3值在夏季最低,呈显著相关,表明夏季PM_(2.5)主要受控于本地大气光化学活性。在冬季,除O_3外,PM_(2.5)、SO_2、CO、NO_x值最高,且大气颗粒物主要以细粒子为主。O_3在春季最高,并与远程传输的气团且经过我国东部污染源密集地区相对应。高浓度的PM_(2.5)主要与冬季缓慢移动的气团相对应,这可能将PM_(2.5)及其气态前体物传输至该地区进而加重大气污染程度。     

2021年沙尘天气影响下江苏省空气质量特征分析

对2021年影响江苏省的沙尘天气过程开展研究,分析受影响的时间、区域特征及环境空气质量特征。结果表明,影响江苏省的沙尘天气过程共计13次,全省累计受影响229 d。从时间分布看,沙尘天气过程多发生在1月、3—5月,2月、11月较少,6—10月和12月无沙尘天气过程。从区域分布看,苏北地区受沙尘天气过程影响较显著,受影响天数>20 d的城市均分布于此。受沙尘天气过程影响,且东北偏北风或东北风输送时,可吸入颗粒物(PM_(10))和细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))较易出现小时高值。沙尘过程造成PM_(10)日均质量浓度超标的天数占比为38.0%,造成PM_(2.5)日均质量浓度超标的天数占比仅为12.7%;扣除沙尘天气过程影响后,PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)年均质量浓度分别较扣除前下降1和6μg/m 3,沙尘天气过程对PM_(10)质量浓度的影响大于对PM_(2.5)质量浓度的影响。受沙尘天气过程影响时,环境空气质量为轻度污染及以上级别占比为45.0%,苏北和苏中地区环境空气质量易达到重度污染及以上级别,苏南地区多为良或轻度污染,少有中度污染。沙尘气团远距离传输使得PM_(10)为首要污染物的特征有所削弱,83.8%的受影响天中首要污染物为PM_(10),其余为二氧化氮(NO_(2))或臭氧(O_(3))。     

克拉玛依市空气质量特征分析

为研究克拉玛依市空气质量特征,对2015年克拉玛依市空气自动站监测数据进行分析。结果表明,克拉玛依市空气质量整体较为清洁,优良天数占有效监测天数的91.5%,PM_(2.5)平均浓度为31μg/m~3,PM_(10)平均浓度为64μg/m~3,PM_(2.5)在PM_(10)中占比近半;SO_2和NO_2浓度相对不高,NO_2/SO_2比值为2.4,流动源问题相对突出;对各项污染物的综合指数分担率分析发现,克拉玛依市PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)为综合指数分担率最高的因子,不足四分之一,O_3排第三位,超过五分之一,SO_2最低,仅为3.6%。     

2017-2019年扬州市大气污染物与儿童呼吸系统门诊量的时间序列分析

收集扬州市2017—2019年大气污染物细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))、二氧化硫(SO_2)、二氧化氮(NO_2)和臭氧(O_3)的日均质量浓度、气象因素(日均温度、相对湿度)以及每日儿童呼吸系统门诊量数据,运用广义相加模型(GAM)进行单污染物和多污染物分析。结果表明,单污染物分析中,大气污染物的质量浓度累积滞后效应均大于单独滞后效应。ρ(PM_(2.5))、ρ(SO_2)和ρ(NO_2)对儿童呼吸系统门诊量影响效应均在累积滞后7 d(lag 07)达到最大值,ρ(O_3)在累积滞后6 d(lag 06)达到最大值。表现为ρ(PM_(2.5))、ρ(SO_2)和ρ(NO_2)在lag 07时,每升高10μg/m~3,儿童呼吸系统门诊量超额危险度分别为0.720%[95%置信区间(95%CI):0.346%～1.095%]、6.955%(95%CI:5.197%～8.743%)和2.133%(95%CI:1.516%～2.754%);ρ(O_3)在lag 06时,每升高10μg/m~3,儿童呼吸系统门诊量超额危险度为1.160%(95%CI:0.873%～1.447%)。多污染物分析中,当引入所有污染物(SO_2+NO_2+O_3)时,PM_(2.5)对儿童呼吸系统门诊量风险影响消失。大气污染物浓度的升高会增加儿童呼吸系统疾病的发生风险,并且其影响存在一定的滞后效应,有必要开展有针对性的大气污染物与儿童呼吸系统疾病的预警研究,保护易感人群,合理分配卫生资源。     

焦作市大气污染物特征和相关性分析

为研究焦作市大气污染特征及其相关性,对2015—2017年焦作市4个国控空气监测点位的监测数据进行统计分析。结果表明:2015—2017年城区环境空气污染SO_2、NO_2、CO、PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)浓度均呈逐年下降趋势;大气污染浓度季节变化特征明显,PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)、SO_2、NO_2、CO的浓度均为冬季最高、夏季最低,空气质量指数也在冬季达到最高值; O_3浓度则为夏季最高、冬季最低。2017年焦作市沙尘天气共计36 d,严重影响了环境空气中颗粒物的浓度。由PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)的比值说明大气颗粒物污染以PM_(2.5)为主。通过SPSS软件分析,SO_2、NO_2、CO、PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)浓度间呈两两正相关,O_3浓度与NO_2、CO呈负相关。     

昌吉市采暖期、非采暖期颗粒物、二氧化硫和一氧化碳的污染特征及相关性研究

对昌吉市采暖期和非采暖期PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)、SO_2和CO的污染特征及相关性进行分析发现,相较于非采暖期,采暖期各种污染物的浓度更大,而PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)浓度严重超标,并且各污染物同源性较高,主要来自于区域采暖燃煤,同时针对研究结论提出了加强昌吉市大气污染治理的建议。     

烟花爆竹禁燃对春节期间东北地区空气质量影响评估

利用2015—2017年春节期间东北地区主要大气污染物(PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)、SO_2、NO_2、CO和O3)质量浓度监测资料及相应气象因子(温度、湿度、风速和气压)观测资料,分析了春节期间烟花爆竹禁燃对东北地区空气质量的影响。结果表明:随着东北地区主要城市禁燃力度的增强,空气质量逐年提升,PM_(2.5)和SO_2浓度逐年大幅度下降。禁燃可明显降低城区PM_(2.5)浓度,而由于春节期间污染源整体减少,城区和城郊监测点PM_(2.5)浓度值差异减小。烟花爆竹对PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)浓度影响高于对气体污染物SO_2、NO_2和CO的影响。此外,气象条件对东北地区春节期间禁燃改善空气质量的效果也有明显影响。因此,结合春节期间的气象条件,在东北地区实施禁燃政策动态调整非常必要。     

水质中高浓度挥发酚的预测

提出一种以溴水预测法确定高浓度挥发酚稀释倍数 ,为高浓度水样提供了一种科学准确的操作分析方法。简单快速 ,并能确保高浓度挥发酚水样分析的可靠性与成功性 ,具有很大的应用和推广价值     

突变理论在环境预测中的应用

以某市七年来环境治理投资状况为序列建立多项式预测模型 ,尽管其拟合精度较高 ,但其预测结果偏离现实情况较大 ,通过突变理论分析知其原因在于有突变因素存在之故     

A forecast analysis on fertilizers consumption worldwide

This study aimed to make a review and forecast on fertilizers consumption worldwide in order to provide basal data for the decision-making of fertilizers production and for the environmental impact assessment of fertilizers application. It was found that fertilizers consumption was dependent on human population and the increase of fertilizers consumption was mainly resulted from expansion of human population. The univariate linear model, y=a+rx(t), where y is the fertilizers consumption, x(t) is the total human population at year t, r is the annual fertilizers consumption per capita, was used to fit historical data of fertilizers consumption, and the forecasts during 2010 to 2030 were given in detail. Model analysis showed that world’s per capita annual consumption of total fertilizers, nitrogenous fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and potash fertilizers, were 34.6, 24.4, 6.6, and 3.7 kg, respectively. Per capita annual consumption of total fertilizers for Asia, Africa, Caribbean, Oceania, North & Central America, Europe, and South America were 38.8, 5.9, 6.8, 114.0, 62.9, −0.9, and 43.6 kg, respectively. Compared to the current level, the world’s total fertilizers consumption would reach 226,150,381 Mt by 2030, an increase of 32.1% against current level. Worldwide consumption of nitrogenous fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and potash fertilizers would reach 141,800,601, 50,961,129, and 33,388,650 Mt by 2030, increasing 37.5, 25.8, and 21.2% based on current levels. Consumption of total, nitrogenous, phosphate, and potash fertilizers in Asia and Africa would increase 54 to 55% and 40 to 60% by 2030, respectively. Total fertilizers consumption in North & Central America would see an increase of 39.4% by 2030, and in South America and Oceania it would increase by 30.9 and 64.7%, respectively. By 2030, Caribbean’s consumption for total fertilizers would increase 2.8%. Europe’s total fertilizers consumption was forecast to continuously decline and would have a decrease of 2.4% by 2030. Annual relative growths of consumption of total fertilizers, nitrogenous fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and potash fertilizers for the world, Africa, Asia, and South America were forecast to decrease in the forecast period. For North & Central America, annual relative growths of consumption of total fertilizers and nitrogenous fertilizers would decrease and the others would increase annually by 2030. Annual relative growths of consumption of total fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and potash fertilizers for Oceania were forecast to rise annually by 2030. Europe’s annual relative growths of consumption of total fertilizers and potash fertilizers would decrease in the future.     

Kalman滤波法在城市空气污染预报中的应用

利用Kalman滤波法结合由逐步回归法选出的T106气象因子,对大连市的空气质量进行预测预报,得出了该法与传统的多元回归法相比具有物理意义明显、准确率高的结论.     

地表水BOD_5的快速预测预报

地表水五日生化需氧量（ＢＯＤ５）的测试需要五天时间，分析周期较长。本文建立了ＢＯＤ５与高锰酸盐指数（ＣＯＤＭｎ）、ＢＯＤ５与溶解氧（ＤＯ）之间的直线回归方程，通过测定地表水的ＣＯＤＭｎ和ＤＯ可分别对地表水的ＢＯＤ５实现快速预测预报。现场使用溶解氧测定仪检测ＤＯ，可立即预报地表水的ＢＯＤ５。     

An integrated air quality forecast system for a metropolitan area

Air quality forecasting is an important issue in environmental research, due to the effects that air pollutants have on population health. To deal with this topic, in this work an integrated modelling system has been developed to forecast daily maximum eight hours ozone concentrations and daily mean PM10 concentrations, up to two days in advance, over an urban area. The presented approach involves two steps. In the first step, artificial neural networks are identified and applied to get point-wise forecasting. In the second step, the forecasts obtained at the monitoring station locations are spatially interpolated all over the domain using the cokriging technique, which allows to improve the spatial interpolation in the absence of densely sampled data. The integrated modelling system has been then applied to a case study over Northern Italy, performing a validation over space and time for the year 2004 and analyzing if the limit values for the protection of human health set by the European Commission are respected. The presented approach represents a fast and reliable way to provide decision makers and the general public with air quality forecasting, and to support prevention and precautionary measures.     

A pilot project to detect and forecast harmful algal blooms in the northern Gulf of Mexico

More timely access to data and information on the initiation, evolution and effects of harmful algal blooms can reduce adverse impacts on valued natural resources and human health. To achieve this in the northern Gulf of Mexico, a pilot project was initiated to develop a user-driven, end-to-end (measurements to applications) observing system. A key strategy of the project is to coordinate existing state, federal and academic programs at an unprecedented level of collaboration and partnership. Resource managers charged with protection of public health and aquatic resources require immediate notice of algal events and a forecast of when, where and what adverse effects will likely occur. Further, managers require integrated analyses and interpretations, rather than raw data, to make effective decisions. Consequently, a functional observing system must collect and transform diverse measurements into usable forecasts. Data needed to support development of forecasts will include such properties as sea surface temperature, winds, currents and waves; precipitation and freshwater flows with related discharges of sediment and nutrients; salinity, dissolved oxygen, and chlorophyll concentrations (in vivo fluorescence); and remotely-sensed spatial images of sea surface chlorophyll concentrations. These data will be provided via a mixture of discrete and autonomous in situ sensing with near real-time data telemetry, and remote sensing from space (SeaWiFS), aircraft (hyperspectral imagery) or land (high-frequency radar). With calibration across these platforms, the project will ultimately provide a 4-dimensional visualization of harmful algae events in a time frame suitable to resource managers.     

大连市近岸海域赤潮状况、预测及防治对策

在揭示大连市近岸海域赤潮生物与生态环境关系的基础上,通过大量的调查监测资料对赤潮发生及增殖阶段13项环境因子统计分析,经多元回归得出大连市近岸海域春夏季赤湖预测模式,并在以后的赤湖中得到验证.其春季符合率为83%,夏季的符合率为92%.文章提出了物理、化学法治理的技术参数.同时探讨了生物治理的前景.     

Background monitoring and its role in global estimation and forecast of the state of the biosphere

1. Scientific grounds and the concept of monitoring as the system for observations, assessment and prediction of man-induced changes in the state of natural environment, the program and aims of the background monitoring were developed by the author in 1972–1980. These questions were discussed in detail at the International Symposium on Global Integrated Monitoring (Riga, U.S.S.R., December, 1978). It should be stressed that along with significant anthropogenic loading on large cities and industrial areas, natural ecosystems covering most of the Earth's territory are also exposed to quite extended, though insignificant anthropogenic effects. This paper proposes to consider the ways of the background information use for the biosphere state assessment and prediction.
2. Classification of objects for monitoring from the point of view of the consequences of the man-made impact, pollution in the first hand, is as follows:
3. population (public health);
4. ecosystem elements employed by man whose production is used by population (soil, water bodies, forest, etc.);
5. biotic elements of ecosystems (without the immediate consumed production);
6. abiotic constituents of natural ecosystems, considerable components of the biosphere, climatic system.
7. Historically, monitoring in all countries involves the first two spheres. The background monitoring also extends on the next two spheres. It should differentially take into account physical, chemical and biological factors of impacts. Indentification of biological effects is most complex and vital. Human impact at the background level proceeds indirectly through a general (global or regional) deterioration of the state of the biosphere.
8. Gradually the background monitoring is being practiced on a larger and larger scale. It is shown that the long-range atmospheric transport of pollutants in various regions leads to a gradual general increase of all the natural media pollution and to perceptible biological effects (soil and water acidification and resulting disturbances in the composition of soil and water organisms). The levels of the background impact differ. Thus, the background concentrations of a number of anthropogenic pollutants in Central Europe is 10–20 times higher than in Central Asia.
9. The area of priority in the background monitoring of the biosphere pollution has become evident: compounds of sulphur, mercury and their derivatives, organochloride pesticides, some radioactive substances (e.g., krypton-85 in the atmosphere).
10. The World Ocean is practically all contaminated on a global scale. Biological effects of the World Ocean pollution cause special concern. Particularly important consequences, including climate impact, may be caused by disturbances in energy and matter transfer between environmental media (water-air, water-bottom, etc.). The priority of the impact factors can be allocated here as well: oil products, metals, organochloride compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.
11. One of the most effective possibilities of environmental quality control is standardization which consists in elaboration of permissible ecological loadings upon ecosystems and natural media. The approach to ecological standardization differs from that of hygienic control in principle. The objective of ecological standardization is to ensure the integrity of the given ecosystem and natural environment on the whole.
12. Ecological standardization in its turn requires knowledge related to the damage from this or another impact because in such a case there is a possibility to compare ecological standards for the same ecosystem in the case when impacts are of different origin (e.g., different pollutants).

     

外来沙尘输送对北京市空气质量影响的预报预警技术初步研究

利用多方位监测数据和气象资料,分析了2010—2011年春季外来沙尘输送对北京市空气质量指数的影响,提出外来沙尘对北京市空气质量级别影响的预报判据。此外,基于NAQPMS模型的沙尘模块,开展数值预报研究,并对北京市2010年3月一次沙尘天气污染过程进行数值模拟试验,结果表明,模拟的PM10浓度值与实测值有较好的一致性。通过判别预报和数值模拟两种预报技术的开展,可以预报沙尘输送影响的空气质量级别、沙尘分布和演变规律,为进一步开展空气质量预报预警和防控沙尘工作打下了很好的科学基础。