An integrated assessment model for cross-country pipelines

The cross-country petroleum pipelines are environmentally sensitive because they traverse through varied terrain covering crop fields, forests, rivers, populated areas, desert, hills and offshore. Any malfunction of these pipelines may cause devastating effect on the environment. Hence, the pipeline operators plan and design pipelines projects with sufficient consideration of environment and social aspects along with the technological alternatives. Traditionally, in project appraisal, optimum technical alternative is selected using financial analysis. Impact assessments (IA) are then carried out to justify the selection and subsequent statutory approval. However, the IAs often suggest alternative sites and/or alternate technology and implementation methodology, resulting in revision of entire technical and financial analysis. This study addresses the above issues by developing an integrated framework for project feasibility analysis with the application of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision-making technique. The model considers technical analysis (TA), socioeconomic IA (SEIA) and environmental IA (EIA) in an integrated framework to select the best project from a few alternative feasible projects. Subsequent financial analysis then justifies the selection. The entire methodology has been explained here through a case application on cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India.     

A knowledge brokerage approach for assessing the impacts of the setting up young farmers policy measure in Greece

This study explores Knowledge Brokerage (KB) aspects of an ex-post Impact Assessment (IA) for the Rural Development Programme (RDP) measure of setting up young farmers, under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), at the regional level in Northern Greece. The measure supports the entry of young farmers in agriculture by moving land from older to younger farmers. The aim of the study was to test a set of KB tools for improving the interaction between researchers and policy makers. Our analysis mainly focused on a suite of IA Support Modules to guide practitioners, and on a technical tool kit, a web-based contextualisation platform, to support the IA of the specific test case. Offering a structured approach towards IA, both the Support Modules and LIAISE-KIT allow framing the context, organisation, scheduling and method selection in the light of KB objectives. The evaluation of how IA Support Modules influence the Science Policy Interface (SPI), in the case of the ex-post assessment, demonstrated the high relevance of KB activities for facilitating the interaction between researchers and regional policy makers. The assessment bridges the gap between knowledge producers developing scientific output to be applied in a specific context, and knowledge users, who want clear messages regarding the policy challenges they face. Other conclusions include the need for specific guidelines and training for knowledge users, especially with regard to the use of tools. According to our findings, a consequent application of KB activities is a crucial pre-condition for successfully implementing IAs in future RDP measures.     

Integrated Assessment: an emerging methodology for complex issues

Over recent years Integrated Assessment (IA) has been presented as a new and innovative approach to modern decision making. In this paper we explore some of the key features that we consider characterise IA; we present IA as a framework that allows a flexible approach to uncertainty in decision making and to which a broad palette of expertise can contribute. The example of the development of an international agreement to reduce acidic deposition is used to illustrate the current practical status of an IA. The scientific process leading to this agreement has previously been described as IA but we argue that, although it marks a change from traditional approaches, further progress is still required to satisfy the requirements for a successful and durable IA.     

Should different impact assessment instruments be integrated? Evidence from English spatial planning

This paper aims at providing empirical evidence to the question as to whether integration of different instruments is achieving its aim in supporting sustainable decision making, focusing on SEA inclusive sustainability appraisal (SA) and other impact assessments (IAs) currently used in English spatial planning. Usage of IAs in addition to SA is established and an analysis of the integration approach (in terms of process, output, and assessor) as well as its effectiveness is conducted. It is found that while integration enhances effectiveness to some extent, too much integration, especially in terms of the procedural element, appears to diminish the overall effectiveness of each IA in influencing decisions as they become captured by the balancing function of SA.     

Conceptualising and managing trade-offs in sustainability assessment

One of the defining characteristics of sustainability assessment as a form of impact assessment is that it provides a forum for the explicit consideration of the trade-offs that are inherent in complex decision-making processes. Few sustainability assessments have achieved this goal though, and none has considered trade-offs in a holistic fashion throughout the process. Recent contributions such as the Gibson trade-off rules have significantly progressed thinking in this area by suggesting appropriate acceptability criteria for evaluating substantive trade-offs arising from proposed development, as well as process rules for how evaluations of acceptability should occur. However, there has been negligible uptake of these rules in practice. Overall, we argue that there is inadequate consideration of trade-offs, both process and substantive, throughout the sustainability assessment process, and insufficient considerations of how process decisions and compromises influence substantive outcomes. This paper presents a framework for understanding and managing both process and substantive trade-offs within each step of a typical sustainability assessment process. The framework draws together previously published literature and offers case studies that illustrate aspects of the practical application of the framework. The framing and design of sustainability assessment are vitally important, as process compromises or trade-offs can have substantive consequences in terms of sustainability outcomes delivered, with the choice of alternatives considered being a particularly significant determinant of substantive outcomes. The demarcation of acceptable from unacceptable impacts is a key aspect of managing trade-offs. Offsets can be considered as a form of trade-off within a category of sustainability that are utilised to enhance preferred alternatives once conditions of impact acceptability have been met. In this way they may enable net gains to be delivered; another imperative for progress to sustainability. Understanding the nature and implications of trade-offs within sustainability assessment is essential to improving practice.     

A review of uncertainty research in impact assessment

This paper examines uncertainty research in Impact Assessment (IA) and the focus of attention of the IA scholarly literature. We do so by first exploring ‘outside’ the IA literature, identifying three main themes of uncertainty research, and then apply these themes to examine the focus of scholarly research on uncertainty ‘inside’ IA. Based on a search of the database Scopus, we identified 134 journal papers published between 1970 and 2013 that address uncertainty in IA, 75% of which were published since 2005. We found that 90% of IA research addressing uncertainty focused on uncertainty in the practice of IA, including uncertainty in impact predictions, models and managing environmental impacts. Notwithstanding early guidance on uncertainty treatment in IA from the 1980s, we found no common, underlying conceptual framework that was guiding research on uncertainty in IA practice. Considerably less attention, only 9% of papers, focused on uncertainty communication, disclosure and decision-making under uncertain conditions, the majority of which focused on the need to disclose uncertainties as opposed to providing guidance on how to do so and effectively use that information to inform decisions. Finally, research focused on theory building for explaining human behavior with respect to uncertainty avoidance constituted only 1% of the IA published literature. We suggest the need for further conceptual framework development for researchers focused on identifying and addressing uncertainty in IA practice; the need for guidance on how best to communicate uncertainties in practice, versus criticizing practitioners for not doing so; research that explores how best to interpret and use disclosures about uncertainty when making decisions about project approvals, and the implications of doing so; and academic theory building and exploring the utility of existing theories to better understand and explain uncertainty avoidance behavior in IA.     

Exploring the use of computer models in participatory integrated assessment – experiences and recommendations for further steps

Integrated assessment (IA) can be defined as a structured process of dealing with complex issues, using knowledge from various scientific disciplines and/or stakeholders, such that integrated insights are made available to decision makers (J. Rotmans, Enviromental Modelling and Assessment 3 (1998) 155). There is a growing recognition that the participation of stakeholders is a vital element of IA. However, only little is known about methodological requirements for such participatory IA and possible insights to be gained from these approaches. This paper summarizes some of the experiences gathered in the ULYSSES project, which aims at developing procedures that are able to bridge the gap between environmental science and democratic policy making for the issue of climate change. The discussion is based on a total of 52 IA focus groups with citizens, run in six European and one US city. In these groups, different computer models were used, ranging from complex and dynamic global models to simple accounting tools. The analysis in this paper focuses on the role of the computer models. The findings suggest that the computer models were successful at conveying to participants the temporal and spatial scale of climate change, the complexity of the system and the uncertainties in our understanding of it. However, most participants felt that the computer models were less instrumental for the exploration of policy options. Furthermore, both research teams and participants agreed that despite considerable efforts, most models were not sufficiently user-friendly and transparent for being accessed in an IA focus group. With that background, some methodological conclusions are drawn about the inclusion of the computer models in the deliberation process. Furthermore, some suggestions are made about how given models should be adapted and new ones developed in order to be helpful for participatory IA. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Understanding why impact assessment fails; a case study of theory and practice from Wafi-Golpu,Papua New Guinea

From an instrumental or management perspective, impact assessment (IA) is a process of identifying impacts, finding solutions and achieving project approval. A recipient community, however, has a completely different perspective. For them the IA is about living with impacts, individually and collectively, perhaps over generations, and contested processes of self-determination, consultation and exclusion. IA practitioners live in a third space, usually bound to the proponent but also aware of responsibilities to communities and eco-systems. Seeking to better understand how IA is practiced and experienced, we explore the proposed Wafi-Golpu mine, located in the Morobe Province of Papua New Guinea. Determinably focused on local effects we situate the proposed mine within the context of the national mining experience and discuss how IA practices see local and/or Indigenous communities. We find that the Wafi-Golpu IA is blind to local ways of being and seeing the world, with an opaque and arbitrary assessment that reflects its technical and Western basis and bias. We finish with observations about the proposed Wafi-Golpu mine and IA that is relevant to the approval process, as well as making a decolonial, Southern contribution to IA theory and practice, extractive industry regulation and mining-affected communities elsewhere.     

Land User Participation in Developing a Computerised Decision Support System for Combating Desertification

Combating desertification in natural rangelands has recently become a priority in large parts of southern Africa. Rangeland managers, farmers, scientists, conservationists and land users have been applying a variety of restoration technologies to address this problem. Bush encroachment, as part of the desertification process, involves the natural replacement of the herbaceous plant cover by undesirable problem woody species. The active and passive restoration technologies that are applied, are mainly based on indigenous knowledge and include the chemical, mechanical or manual reclamation of unproductive rangelands, as well as the combating of woody and alien species encroachment. Indigenous practices and knowledge play a major role in the effectiveness and success rate of these technologies. This project faces the challenge of bringing together both local and scientific knowledge in a single user-friendly, computerised Decision Support System (DSS) which is directly accessible by land users to support them in the process of decision making, concerning the combating of desertification. Case studies from central and northern Namibia were used to combine qualitative and quantitative data to develop this Decision Support System. The DSS currently consists of two databases and an expert system, which evaluates the results of land users’ management practices, and provides easily accessible information and advice for participants in the system, based on the incorporated data. The DSS is also linked to national and international web sites and databases to offer a wider range of information on technologies concerning agricultural and conservation practices.     

THE TIGER IN THE DINING ROOM: DESIGNING AND EVALUATING INTEGRATED ASSESSMENTS OF ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE

Integrated assessments (IAs) and integrated assessment models (IAMs) arerecent responses to the inter-disciplinary challenges provided by complexglobal environmental issues such as atmospheric change. This paper discussesan array of integrated assessments, providing an overview of the role of IAsas bridges or foundations for epistemic communities. Formal as well associal, political, and ethical issues are presented. As well as a definition of anIA and an IAM, different forms and approaches of current or proposed IAsare reviewed. Particular stress is laid on the need to maintain the integrity ofthe diverse components of an IA. Finally, reference is made to the need tounderstand the underlying ethical and normative concerns that have promotedthe current interest in IA.     

Beyond distribution and participation: A scoping review to advance a comprehensive environmental justice framework for impact assessment

Concepts of justice are implicit to impact assessment (IA) procedures and policies. A closer examination of the academic literature on environmental justice reveals plural meanings and practices. We present data from a scoping review of the academic literature on IA guided by a trivalent definition of environmental justice encompassing distribution of environmental harms, recognition of diverse ways of knowing, and representation of plural perspectives through democratic procedures. We use this trivalent framework to assess how justice is defined in English language IA journal articles from 2000 to 2019. Findings show an emphasis on distributive and procedural dimensions of justice, with significantly less attention given to issues of recognition and framing. Broad definitions of environmental justice can assist IA scholars in attending to justice-seeking claims across various IA practices and settings, including implications for how IA addresses the concerns of marginalized groups.     

The social impacts of dams: A new framework for scholarly analysis

No commonly used framework exists in the scholarly study of the social impacts of dams. This hinders comparisons of analyses and thus the accumulation of knowledge. The aim of this paper is to unify scholarly understanding of dams' social impacts via the analysis and aggregation of the various frameworks currently used in the scholarly literature. For this purpose, we have systematically analyzed and aggregated 27 frameworks employed by academics analyzing dams' social impacts (found in a set of 217 articles). A key finding of the analysis is that currently used frameworks are often not specific to dams and thus omit key impacts associated with them. The result of our analysis and aggregation is a new framework for scholarly analysis (which we call ‘matrix framework’) specifically on dams' social impacts, with space, time and value as its key dimensions as well as infrastructure, community and livelihood as its key components. Building on the scholarly understanding of this topic enables us to conceptualize the inherently complex and multidimensional issues of dams' social impacts in a holistic manner. If commonly employed in academia (and possibly in practice), this framework would enable more transparent assessment and comparison of projects.     

Understanding EIA scoping in practice: A pragmatist interpretation of effectiveness

Despite widespread recognition of the need to consider IA effectiveness in terms of practice, the literature is dominated by normative approaches that do little to advance understanding of the causal process that lead to particular outcomes. Focusing upon EIA scoping in England, we examine notions of effectiveness directly from the perspective of key practitioner communities. The ‘received view’ of scoping asserts that effectiveness is constrained by a failure to narrow the assessment focus. Using an alternative, pragmatist interpretation (inspired by American philosophical pragmatism) we analyse the understandings and actions of professional practitioner communities. We find that risk management ‘ends-in-view’ shape the interpretation of the purpose of scoping and hence effective practice. Amongst EIA consultants the ends-in-view emphasise managing the risk of project delays, whilst planning officers seek to minimise the risk of legal challenge, and statutory consultees aim to provide advice that is proportionate to potential environmental risks. Practitioner ends-in-view shape the scoping approaches employed and the opportunities for knowledge formulation and ‘learning in action’. Whilst practitioners demonstrate pragmatism in managing uncertainty and there is some awareness of potential power-play, we find that knowledge formation and learning is predominately instrumental and incremental. Instrumental in serving to refine technical details (rather than co-constructed, drawing on multiple rationalities and types of understanding), and incremental in that over time practitioners learn that the most effective way to achieve their ends-in-view is to include impacts — resulting in a broad, precautionary scoping outcome. Finally, we conclude with reflections on future research directions and the implications for practice given forthcoming changes to the regulatory framework.     

Enhancing Indigenous impact assessment: Lessons from Indigenous planning theory

Impact assessment faces a number of key challenges. One area singled out as needing attention is community-based impact assessment. Impact assessment related to Indigenous communities is a particular case in point. We lend an Indigenous voice to this conversation. The emerging field of Indigenous impact assessment is under-developed compared to other forms of IA, particularly in terms of its theoretical foundation. In the article we address that gap by highlighting the current conundrum in Indigenous practice, exemplified in the context of Aotearoa New Zealand. Then we base our deliberation in an Indigenous worldview, applying Indigenous planning theory to impact assessment. Indigenous planning theory has an explicit decolonising agenda that supports communities to reclaim traditional planning approaches. We provide key parameters for establishing a theoretical and practical space for Indigenous IA, and for conceptualising the relationship between Indigenous IA other forms of IA. We argue for a ‘third space’ that facilitates co-existence of different forms of IA activity rather than integration of Indigenous endeavours into broader IA types. In doing so, we demonstrate the potential of Indigenous planning theory to connect international dialogue and case studies on Indigenous impact assessment, and to broaden and deepen IA theory and practice.     

An Integrated Assessment by Models for Energy Systems Analysis and Life-Cycle Assessment with a Case Study of Advanced Fossil-Fired Power Plants in China

We developed an integrated assessment (IA) using models for energy systems analysis and life-cycle assessment (LCA). Based on this assessment framework, we developed cost-benefit analysis (CBA) case studies for a hypothetical project designed to introduce advanced fossil-fired power generation technologies in China. Our MARKAL model for Japan confirmed that radical reductions (i.e., 80 % by 2050) of carbon dioxide (CO₂) could be attained from energy systems alone and that credit for emission allowances was required. We evaluated life-cycle costs and emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur oxide, and nitrogen oxide gases for the energy technologies using an LCA model. Further, we applied a power generation planning model for six Chinese grids to provide a power mix structure, potentially producing credit by installing fossil-fired power generation technology and by using baseline grid emission factors with an average cost of electricity. Finally, by using dynamic emission reductions and additional costs from the two models, we conducted case studies of CBA for a hypothetical project to install the technologies in China. This was accomplished by evaluating emission reductions in monetary terms and by applying a life-cycle impact assessment model. A unique feature of our IA is its dynamic (time-varying) assessment of costs and benefits.     

Developing transboundary river basin monitoring programmes using the DPSIR indicator framework

Policymakers are often dissatisfied by the lack of what they consider useful information to support water management. Analysis of this 'water information gap' shows that this is caused by a lack of proper communication between information users and information producers. To improve this communication the process of specification of information needs has been structured. Earlier experiences showed that this not only entailed developing a structure to manage the process, but also developing a structure to guide the breakdown of policy objectives into information needs. Such a structure to organise the problem supports policy makers and monitoring specialists in their communication. This paper describes three pilot projects where the DPSIR indicator framework was used to organise the problem. It is concluded that the DPSIR framework is useful for improving the communication between information users and information producers and is helpful in breaking down policy objectives into information needs in a structured way. The structured approach in this way assists in narrowing the water information gap. Use of the DPSIR framework however leads to a bias towards water management problems and does not provide for all the relevant information needs.     

Integrated assessment modeling of global climate change: Transparent rational tool for policy making or opaque screen hiding value‐laden assumptions?

One of the principal tools used in the integrated assessment (IA) of environmental science, technology and policy problems is integrated assessment models (IAMs). These models are often comprised of many sub‐models adopted from a wide range of disciplines. A multi‐disciplinary tool kit is presented, from which three decades of IA of global climatic change issues have tapped. A distinction between multi‐ and inter‐disciplinarity is suggested, hinging on the synergistic value added for the latter. Then, a hierarchy of five generations of IAMs are proposed, roughly paralleling the development of IAMs as they incorporated more components of the coupled physical, biological and social scientific disciplines needed to address a “real world” problem like climatic change impacts and policy responses. The need for validation protocols and exploration of predictability limits is also emphasized. The critical importance of making value‐laden assumptions highly transparent in both natural and social scientific components of IAMs is stressed, and it is suggested that incorporating decision‐makers and other citizens into the early design of IAMs can help with this process. The latter could also help IA modelers to offer a large range of value‐containing options via menu driven designs. Examples of specific topics which are often not well understood by potential users of IAMs are briefly surveyed, and it is argued that if the assumptions and values embedded in such topics are not made explicit to users, then IAMs, rather than helping to provide us with refined insights, could well hide value‐laden assumptions or conditions. In particular, issues of induced technological change, timing of carbon abatement, transients, surprises, adaptation, subjective probability assessment and the use of contemporary spatial variations as a substitute for time evolving changes (what I label “ergodic economics”) are given as examples of problematic issues that IA modelers need to explicitly address and make transparent if IAMs are to enlighten more than they conceal. A checklist of six practices which might help to increase transparency of IAMs is offered in the conclusions. Incorporation of decision‐makers into all stages of development and use of IAMs is re‐emphasized as one safeguard against misunderstanding or misrepresentation of IAM results by lay audiences.     

Cumulative effects in strategic environmental assessment: The influence of plan boundaries

Cumulative effects (CE) assessment is lacking quality in impact assessment (IA) worldwide. It has been argued that the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) provides a suitable IA framework for addressing CE because it is applied to developments with broad boundaries, but few have tested this claim. Through a case study on the Danish mining sector, this article explores how plan boundaries influence the analytical boundaries applied for assessing CE in SEA. The case was studied through document analysis in combination with semi-structured group interviews of the responsible planners, who also serve as SEA practitioners. It was found that CE are to some extent assessed and managed implicitly throughout the planning process. However, this is through a focus on lowering the cumulative stress of mining rather than the cumulative stress on and capacity of the receiving environment. Plan boundaries do influence CE assessment, though all boundaries are not equally influential. The geographical and time boundaries of the Danish mining plans are broad or flexible enough to accommodate a meaningful assessment of CE, but the topical boundary is restrictive. The study indicates that collaboration among planning authorities and legally appointed CE leadership may facilitate better practice on CE assessment in sector-specific SEA contexts. However, most pressing is the need for relating assessment to the receiving environment as opposed to solely the stress of a proposed plan.     

A framework to assess food security in regional strategic environmental assessment

Today, food security is central to global social policy and sustainable development agendas; yet food security considerations have not yet widely penetrated environmental impact assessment (IA) practice. This paper investigates criteria and approaches to food security assessment that align with Regional Strategic Environment Assessment (RSEA); a form of IA commonly used to influence natural resource development programmes. The research is based on interviews with seven international food security experts about how food security assessment can be performed at a regional scale, responsive to the impacts of natural resource developments. Analysis of data reveals essential components, key considerations, and procedural requirements for food security assessment within RSEA processes. Based on the evidence, we conclude that food security assessment in RSEA cannot be approached in a piecemeal fashion. To be successful: it must include holistic and comprehensive consideration of all four food security dimensions; communities should be profiled in early stages of the assessment to characterize the regional food system and define its importance to food security; vulnerable populations should be prioritized in the assessment; and it is critical to incorporate meaningful and influential opportunities for public participation. Finally, the recommended approach to analyze food security in RSEA is ‘system analysis’ which includes examination of food system pathways. A conceptual and methodological framework to assess food security in RSEA is presented, intended as a guide for practitioners wishing to incorporate food security into RSEA and RSEA-like initiatives.     

Multi-actor involvement for integrating ecosystem services in strategic environmental assessment of spatial plans

Integrating an ecosystem services (ES) approach into Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of spatial plans potentially enhances the consideration of the value of nature in decision making and policy processes. However, there is increasing concern about the institutional context and a lack of a common understanding of SEA and ecosystem services for adopting them as an integrated framework. This paper addresses this concern by analysing the current understanding and network relations in a multi-actor arrangement as a first step towards a successful integration of ES in SEA and spatial planning. Our analysis focuses on a case study in Chile, where we administered a questionnaire survey to some of the main actors involved in the spatial planning process. The questionnaire focused on issues such as network relations among actors and on conceptual understanding, perceptions and challenges for integrating ES in SEA and spatial planning, knowledge on methodological approaches, and the connections and gaps in the science-policy interface. Our findings suggest that a common understanding of SEA and especially of ES in a context of multiple actors is still at an initial stage in Chile. Additionally, the lack of institutional guidelines and methodological support is considered the main challenge for integration. We conclude that preconditions exist in Chile for integrating ES in SEA for spatial planning, but they strongly depend on appropriate governance schemes that promote a close science-policy interaction, as well as collaborative work and learning.