基于ＷＲＦ与田湾核电站外围监控系统的区域风场模 拟对比分析

WR F模式是新一代中尺度预报模式和同化系统，通过 WR F 模式构建田湾核电站区域气象预报系统，可为江苏省建设先进的核应急决策支持系统提供坚实的理论基础和技术支持。介绍了田湾核电站区域 WR F 模式风场预报系统的构建和对比试验情况，通过数值模拟风场与实测结果的对比检验，WR F模式精细化的三维风场预测具有非常高的准确性。     

无人机监测在城市环境大气污染物扩散数值模拟中的应用

通过数值模拟手段,确定城市区域污染源对周边环境的影响程度和影响范围,确定污染源周边环境复杂程度对烟气扩散的影响程度。结果表明,数值模拟结果与无人机监测结果具有相同的变化规律,验证了数值模拟的合理性,可为项目选址、排污口设置、大气污染防治措施及相关工程设计等提供科学依据或指导性意见。     

基于余弦模型的核电站周围环境γ辐射水平季节性分析

探讨了环境γ辐射水平的季节性变化趋势和规律,通过余弦模型对连云港田湾核电站2005—2008年度γ辐射连续监测自动站的月均值数据进行分析,并与实际值进行拟合比较,得到拟合曲线与实际曲线吻合,余弦模型能反映出γ辐射水平的季节性变化规律的结果。     

大气环境无人机监测方法研究

目前地面常规大气监测手段难以对垂直方向污染源监测,也难以应对环境突发事件,采用无人机大气监测与数值模拟结合的方法可以解决该问题。实验开发了基于无人机平台的空气质量监测平台,采用数值模拟方法确定平台搭载方案,再对无人机监测系统得到的监测数据与数值模拟计算结果作对比分析,得到各项污染物浓度。分析了该方法存在的问题,提出了提高数据链路传输能力,开展无人机遥感系统相关环境质量评价方法学研究,开发精度高、质量轻的无人机大气监测吊舱,开展地面静止比对和飞行测量比对实验等建议。     

最优化集成方法在城市臭氧数值预报中的应用研究

基于多模式(NAQPMS、CMAQ、CAMx、WRF-Chem)空气质量数值预报业务系统的滚动预报结果,结合站点观测资料,评估了最优化集成方法在城市臭氧数值预报中的可行性和预报效果。一年的评估结果表明:当训练期为15 d时,最优化集成方法能够得到相对较好的结果。总体而言,最优化集成方法对城市臭氧浓度变化趋势和浓度水平的预报效果明显优于单个模式,且在大部分城市优于多模式的最优预报,其预报值和观测的相关系数提高0.11以上,均方根误差降低约10μg/m~3;该方法对城市臭氧污染等级的预报能力也明显优于单个模式,特别是轻、中度污染。此外,在模拟偏差较大的城市,最优化集成方法对预报效果的改进更为显著;在模拟偏差较小的城市,该方法仍可进一步提升预报效果。     

外来沙尘输送对北京市空气质量影响的预报预警技术初步研究

利用多方位监测数据和气象资料,分析了2010—2011年春季外来沙尘输送对北京市空气质量指数的影响,提出外来沙尘对北京市空气质量级别影响的预报判据。此外,基于NAQPMS模型的沙尘模块,开展数值预报研究,并对北京市2010年3月一次沙尘天气污染过程进行数值模拟试验,结果表明,模拟的PM10浓度值与实测值有较好的一致性。通过判别预报和数值模拟两种预报技术的开展,可以预报沙尘输送影响的空气质量级别、沙尘分布和演变规律,为进一步开展空气质量预报预警和防控沙尘工作打下了很好的科学基础。     

基于CFSv2的延伸期空气质量数值预报技术及效果评估

介绍了基于CFSv2产品开展空气质量数值模拟的技术方法以及基于该技术的成都市延伸期空气质量预报系统,评价了2019年9月25日至12月25日的预报结果,以2019年12月为例分析了系统对具体污染过程的预报能力。结果表明,系统AQI预报准确率为36.67%,等级预报准确率为68.93%,"时段1"的预报效果优于其余时段,但"时段2"和"时段3"在污染物浓度水平上仍然具有较高的参考价值。系统在PM2.5浓度、气温和气压的变化趋势上提供21 d左右的参考。后续工作中,将针对CFSv2产品开展气象模型参数方案优选,并尝试结合基于GFS产品驱动的常规业务数值预报产品为延伸期空气质量预报提供污染物浓度初始场,减少误差传递,从而提高延伸期空气质量预报产品的准确性和可用性。     

基于机器学习的短临预报方法及其在空气质量保障中的应用

基于多个数值模式(NAQPMS、CMAQ)预报结果和站点观测资料,采用岭回归机器学习方法构建了一种多污染物短临预报方法,并应用于2017年厦门金砖国家峰会和2019年武汉军运会空气质量保障工作,评估总结了短临预报方法的可行性和预报效果。结果表明:短临预报表现出很好的预报能力,可以有效改进数值模式的预报趋势和量值。从日均模拟效果来看,短临预报的颗粒物相关系数达到0.9以上,均方根误差小于5μg/m~3,而且预报的臭氧相关系数和均方根误差分别为0.99和2μg/m~3。相较于日均数值模式预报结果,短临预报可使颗粒物和臭氧的预报相关系数至少提升16%和9%,预报均方根误差至少下降50%和86%。对于小时模拟效果,短临预报能够更好地把握颗粒物的小时变化特征,其相关系数较模式提升了0.2以上;同时短临预报能够更好地再现观测到的臭氧日循环特征,对白天的峰值和夜晚的低值预报更好,其相关系数高达0.9。总体来说,短临预报方法可为重大活动空气质量保障提供较为精准的临近预报结果,具有较好的应用价值。     

三维变分在PM2.5重污染数值模拟中的应用研究

为了探讨三维变分法(3DVAR)对成渝城市群冬季PM2.5重污染模拟的改善效果,采用3DVAR对成渝城市群2017年12月至2018年1月的空气质量数值模拟结果进行资料同化,对比评估嵌套网格空气质量预报模式(NAQPMS)原始数据与同化再分析数据的准确率,并分析成渝重污染特征。研究结果显示,3DVAR在PM2.5、PM10和NO2的同化实验中均取得较好的改善效果,成渝地区检验站点各污染物相关系数(r)的平均提升比例依次为44%、90%和332%,r改善的站点占检验站点总数的比例分别为98%、100%和82%;检验站点均方根误差(RMSE)的平均下降比例分别为15%、37%和31%,RMSE改善的站点占检验站点总数的比例为65%、98%和84%。与原始模拟结果相比,同化结果能够更准确地反映成渝地区冬季重污染期间的PM2.5和PM10空间分布特征。     

基于OPAQ的城市空气质量预报系统研究

空气质量预测在国内的关注度日益提高,传统的空气质量预测系统通常运用数值化学传输模型,利用物理方程来计算污染物的扩散、沉降和化学反应。而化学传输模型的预测准确性很大程度上需要依赖详细的污染源排放信息和气象模型的输出结果。基于统计模型的OPAQ空气质量预报业务系统,采用人工神经网络算法,可预测各污染物的日均值或日最大值。并对北京空气质量预报的结果进行了评价,OPAQ空气质量预报业务系统对空气质量预测的准确性较高,能够利用较低的计算资源得到较为准确的预测结果。与数值预报相比,OPAQ空气质量预报业务系统不需要大量的基础数据作为输入,可弥补数值预报的不足,并成为数值预报的有力补充。     

Evaluation of Numerical Modeling Methods for the Management of Produced Water Discharges in the Coastal Region with a Canadian Case Study

This study aims at evaluating two numerical methods for 3D simulation of marine pollutant dispersion problems: the random walk particle tracking (RWPT) method and an explicit second-order finite difference method (FDM) for assessing produced water discharges from offshore oil platform. Test cases in a steady flow field were used to evaluate the efficiency and accuracy of simulating pollutant concentration profiles obtained using both the FDM and RWPT method in comparison with an analytical solution. Additionally, a field study was conducted to simulate the lead concentration distribution of produced water discharged from an oil platform off Canada’s east coast, based on the Princeton Ocean Model modeling the ocean flow in the study area with field verifications. Results indicate that, with proper configuration of grid resolution and particle resolution, both FDM and RWPT method can provide accurate results with reasonable computational costs for complex field cases. Particularly, the satisfactory 3D simulations of marine pollutant dispersion in the far field by both FDM and RWPT numerical methods enable effective assessment and management of offshore waste discharges.     

二维平流扩散模型下的集合卡尔曼滤波模拟同化研究

为提高环境数值预报水平,构建了一个针对污染物扩散的模拟数据同化系统。采用集合卡尔曼滤波方法对二维平流扩散模型的状态变量进行了实时校正,实现污染物浓度的实时模拟预报,完成了敏感性实验中集合数目变化、观测方差变化和同化窗口长度变化研究。比较考察观测点位置与污染源距离不同时的预报效果,探讨了优化条件下的同化策略,提出一种根据距离远近动态调节卡尔曼增益权重的方法。在集合数目较小时,可降低计算代价,得到优化的同化效果。     

The Influence of Temperature on Chemical Fluid-Rock Reactions in Geological CO2 Sequestration

For a Bunter formation in the German Federal State of North Rhine Westphalia, we use numerical models to consider reactions between the supercritical, aqueous, and solid phases. These reactions may occur in a CO₂-water system representing a saline aquifer CO₂ storage scenario. Thus, the models are used for determining the extent of fluid–rock reactions during mineral dissolution or precipitation. In particular, we study the effect of temperature by comparing results for our system set at 100 °C and at 58 °C. Results show that the abundance of dissolved ions changes as a result of elevated temperature. For the entire 10,000-year simulation period, the overall geochemical behavior of the Bunter reservoir rock at the Minden site is explained in terms of different mineral transformations, although some of them are not changed significantly. This mainly comprises the alteration of carbonate minerals such as calcite, and aluminium silicates such as oligoclase, chlorite, illite, albite, kaolinite, and Na-smectite. Another chemical behavior derives from the generation and consumption of new secondary minerals such as dawsonite, pyrite, and Ca-smectite. In contrast to a system temperature of 58 °C, the mineralogical transformations of other minerals such as siderite, ankerite, dolomite, and magnesite are not observed at 100 °C. Also, the numerical simulation results show that at elevated temperature, the dominant role played by hydrodynamic mechanism dwarfs the role of other trapping mechanisms including dissolution and mineralization. Results also demonstrate how geological, petrophysical, and geochemical data can be integrated to estimate quantitatively the magnitude of the fluid–rock reactions. These reactions may entail new geotechnical problems, such as rock self-fracturing which ultimately decreases the CO₂ sequestration projects security.     

Comparative Assessment of Climate Change Scenarios Based on Aquatic Food Web Modeling

In the years 2004 and 2005, we collected samples of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and macroinvertebrates in an artificial small pond in Budapest (Hungary). We set up a simulation model predicting the abundances of the cyclopoids, Eudiaptomus zachariasi, and Ischnura pumilio by considering only temperature and the abundance of population of the previous day. Phytoplankton abundance was simulated by considering not only temperature but the abundances of the three mentioned groups. When we ran the model with the data series of internationally accepted climate change scenarios, the different outcomes were discussed. Comparative assessment of the alternative climate change scenarios was also carried out with statistical methods.     

SO_2浓度对双通道自动荧光过氧化氢在线监测的影响研究

为验证大气中SO2的浓度对气态H2O2自动荧光法监测的影响,设置了SO2与H2O2在自动荧光过氧化氢分析仪中的反应实验;同时,利用SO2和H2O2的反应速率公式进行了模拟计算,模拟计算结果与仪器的监测结果基本相符.证明了在大气SO2浓度较高的情况下,气态SO2对H2O2的自动荧光法测定确实会有显著影响,通过模拟计算的方法可对在线监测的H2O2浓度数据进行校正.     

Saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifer ??? comparison between the CIP and MOC simulation technique

Proper management and evaluation of environmental effects for coastal groundwater aquifers require accurate estimation of salt and fresh water movement. For this we compare two numerical methods to study saltwater intrusion. The two numerical methods are the CIP (constrained interpolation profile) and the MOC (method of characteristics). The two numerical methods are used to solve the salt transport equation. The two methods are applied and compared to saltwater intrusion experiments for confined and unconfined aquifer case studies. It is found that for both cases, the CIP-method is superior in terms of calculation time while keeping an acceptable numerical accuracy.     

Numerical Simulations of Wind Induced Particle Contamination in Gypsum Landfill Surroundings

The contribution presents numerical simulation of gypsum particles, lifting from a gypsum landfill. First, particle characteristics are presented, resulting from different technologies of gypsum depositing. Next, a laboratory experiment parameter validation tests are described, which served as a means of determination of mass flow of particles from the landfill. The background of the numerical simulations, used in the assessment of landfill impact on the environment, is also described. Simulations consist of two parts: simulation of a long term impact of the particles on the surrounding area, performed by implementation of the Gaussian dispersion model based computer code ISC3, and second, a CFD based simulation for assessing the flow and mass concentration fields in the vicinity of the landfill for several pre-selected flow cases. The results of both computational approaches are presented and compared. In the conclusions, a relation of the simulation results with existing environmental pollution levels is made, and recommendations for landfill management are drawn.     

考虑水温变化的变降解系数在北京市北运河水质模拟中的应用

综合降解系数是水质模拟预测、水环境容量计算中的关键参数之一,并且受温度影响较大。首先基于北京市北运河代表站2010年逐日水温资料,根据描述氨氮降解系数与温度之间数量关系的经验公式,得到随水温变化的动态降解系数以及年均水温对应的恒定降解系数,并采用模型试错法进行修正。然后基于MIKE11模型,模拟了采用变降解系数和恒定降解系数2种情景下北运河榆林庄断面氨氮浓度的变化。结果表明:2种情景均能较好地模拟氨氮浓度的年变化趋势,但采用变降解系数下大多月份模拟得到的月均质量浓度相对实测值误差较小,尤其是4—12月各月平均质量浓度模拟误差控制在15%以内,全年日均质量浓度模拟误差不足4%,模型表现更为稳定。