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1.
基于2016年冬季泰州市环境空气质量自动监测数据,定量评估NAQPMS模式、CMAQ模式和人工订正对污染物质量浓度和空气质量等级的预报效果。结果表明,模式预报和人工订正对各污染物预报的相关系数由高到低排列为PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、NO_2、SO_2、O_3-8h,颗粒物预报效果最好。除O_3-8h外,NAQPMS对各项污染物预报的相关系数R为0.47~0.82,CMAQ为0.75~0.81,人工订正为0.43~0.78,3种预报方式均能准确反映污染物浓度的变化趋势;模式预报、人工订正对O_3-8h预报相关系数均0.4。在发生颗粒物污染过程时,人工订正结果相对更为准确。NAQPMS、CMAQ和人工订正对空气质量等级24 h预报准确率分别为38.9%、41.1%和35.6%,NAQPMS对优类别的预判准确率较高,CMAQ、人工订正对良类别的预判准确率较高。对比不同时效的预报效果,24 h预报时效的准确率高于48和72 h。提出,城市空气质量预报可采用集合预报方式,综合1~2种运行较稳定的主流预报模式预报结果,预报员对模式模拟结果进行人工修订,提高预报准确率。  相似文献   

2.
为支持世界互联网大会期间大气污染管控工作,利用人工结合数值模式预报的方式在第二届到第五届世界互联网大会期间开展空气质量预报工作。多模式系统中WRF-CMAQ对乌镇及浙北区域大气污染变化的趋势模拟最好,2016—2018年对AQI日均值模拟的平均分数偏差(MFB)和平均分数误差(MFE)分别为-1.3%~1.6%和24.3%~28.3%。会前48 h、72 h和96 h空气质量等级预报准确率分别为37.5%~83.3%、33.3%~90.0%和0~89.9%。会议期间乌镇的AQI日均值48 h预报准确率为33.3%~100%,等级预报准确率为66.7%~100%。与日常空气质量预报不同,会议期间预报还应重点关注大气污染过程,如有污染可能性,需要给出污染过程的起始时间、持续范围和浓度峰值等情况及其关键时间节点,有针对性地提出大气污染管控的措施建议,为会议期间空气质量保障提供技术支撑。  相似文献   

3.
对广东省空气质量等级预报准确性评估进行了探讨,结果表明,在不区分污染等级的情况下,2016年夏季广东各市的预报准确性差异较大,中山预报准确性达92%,是全省唯一一个准确性超过90%的城市,云浮最低,为53%。在区分污染等级时,实测为轻度及以上污染级别的情况下,各市的准确性普遍较低,仅佛山、东莞与广州的准确性达50%以上,而有11个城市的准确性为0。综合考虑不同污染级别的准确性得分后,佛山市排名第1,较不区分污染等级时的排名提前9名。指出,采用区分污染等级的预报效果评估办法更加适合广东空气污染较轻的区域。在首要污染物为臭氧的情况下,广东省平均的等级预报准确性低于首要污染物为其他物种的情况。  相似文献   

4.
2016年秋季新乡市空气质量模式预报效果评估   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
基于新乡市空气质量数值预报平台,采用相关系数(r)、标准化平均偏差(NMB)等统计指标,系统评估2016年秋季新乡市嵌套网格空气质量预报模式(NAQPMS)和通用多尺度空气质量模式(CMAQ)的预报效果,对比分析2套模式不同预报时效和不同水平分辨率的空气质量等级预报准确率。结果显示:2套模式均较好地表征了各主要污染物的浓度变化特征,2套模式的等级预报准确率高于60%,其中CMAQ对中度及重度的预报等级准确率达到70%。对比模式24、48、72 h 3种预报时效效果,24 h预报时效的统计数据最优,说明24 h预报时效模拟结果可作为业务预报重要的支撑。  相似文献   

5.
以江苏省宿迁环境监测中心OPAQ系统为例,基于人工神经网络算法的OPAQ空气质量预报系统的2种模式对O 3预报准确率的进行了分析,结果表明,趋势最优模式(RMSE模式)对预报当天及未来3 d的预报值与监测值的相关性系数均>0.78,相对误差在25%以下,在预测当天及未来24、48及72 h优-良天的预测准确率较高,分别为88.8%、87.2%、86.3%及84.7%,在预测轻度污染-重度污染的准确率较低;极值最优模式(SI模式)对预报当天及未来3 d的预报值与监测值的相关性系数(R)均>0.76,相对误差<32%,预测未来24和48 h的轻度污染-中度污染的级别准确率>60%。OPAQ系统的极值最优模式(SI模式)更适合作为夏季ρ(O 3)较高时的预测工具。  相似文献   

6.
介绍了江苏省重污染天气监测预报预警系统以及大气重污染预警会商流程,将2015年13个地级市的模式预报、人工预报结果分别与实际观测值进行比较。结果表明:人工预报更准确,PM_(2.5)日均值、臭氧日最大8 h平均值、AQI 3个指标人工预报和实况的相关性分别比模式预报高出12.8%、0.3%、11.4%,平均标准误差(MNE)分别低20.7%、3.1%、23.1%。依据国家空气质量预报技术指南评分办法,对各市2015年全年空气质量级别为"良"时进行评分。通过开展07∶00预报更新,使2015年上半年空气质量预报级别得分平均提高了0.9分,全年级别得分平均提高了2.6分;通过改进模式预报参数,使PM_(2.5)日均预报值、臭氧日最大8 h平均预报值、AQI预报值和实际观测值的相关性比上年同期分别提高26.0%、5.0%、33.9%,MNE分别降低3.6%、31.3%、7.6%。  相似文献   

7.
根据长三角空气质量区域预报工作的实际需要,对分区文字预报和落区图预报两种方式分别制定了不同的空气质量指数级别预报准确性评估方法。分区文字预报根据设定的预报准确性判定方法计算预报评分,落区图预报按区域内预报准确城市占比进行准确率统计。分区文字预报结果显示,2017年长三角区域的预报准确天数占比为62.2%,预报评分为70.2,区域预报评估效果良好。落区图预报评估结果显示,预报级别偏差具有地域性差异,安徽北部、江苏北部和江西中北部预报等级偏高,长三角中南部沿海城市预报等级偏低。该套评估方法可为区域空气质量预报偏差成因分析提供依据,为区域预报工作的改进提供定量参考。  相似文献   

8.
介绍了基于CFSv2产品开展空气质量数值模拟的技术方法以及基于该技术的成都市延伸期空气质量预报系统,评价了2019年9月25日至12月25日的预报结果,以2019年12月为例分析了系统对具体污染过程的预报能力。结果表明,系统AQI预报准确率为36.67%,等级预报准确率为68.93%,"时段1"的预报效果优于其余时段,但"时段2"和"时段3"在污染物浓度水平上仍然具有较高的参考价值。系统在PM2.5浓度、气温和气压的变化趋势上提供21 d左右的参考。后续工作中,将针对CFSv2产品开展气象模型参数方案优选,并尝试结合基于GFS产品驱动的常规业务数值预报产品为延伸期空气质量预报提供污染物浓度初始场,减少误差传递,从而提高延伸期空气质量预报产品的准确性和可用性。  相似文献   

9.
介绍了珠三角区域空气质量预报的"六步法"流程,并对2015年空气质量等级和首要污染物预报准确率进行评估研究。结果表明,2015年珠三角区域空气质量以优良为主,24 h等级预报准确率1月最高2月最低,平均准确率为87.6%;出现的首要污染物种类包括PM2.5,PM10,O3-8 h和NO2,预报准确率9月最高3月最低,平均准确率为72.7%。  相似文献   

10.
基于江苏省重污染天气监测预报预警系统多模式预报结果,分析了不同数值模式对江苏省13个城市细颗粒物(PM2.5)和臭氧(O3)的预报偏差特征,发展了多模式集合预报算法,并对其进行了评估。结果表明,相较于单一数值模式,集合预报算法显著改善了PM2.5和O3预报的准确率,其对江苏省PM2.5和O3空气质量分指数等级的预报准确率超过了80%。就江苏省整体而言,PM2.5集合预报的准确率相比最优单一数值模式提升了6%。O3浓度较低时,集合预报能有效改善各模式存在的高估现象。但受限于目前的校正策略,出现高浓度O3污染时,集合预报对预报效果的提升相对有限。  相似文献   

11.
对空气中甲醛测定的采样方法进行了探讨 ,分别用水和稀硫酸作吸收液对空气甲醛进行采样研究。结果表明 ,用 0 .0 0 5mol LH2 SO4 作吸收液的采样方法 ,可有效、稳定地延长样品的保存时间 ,且又符合方法灵敏度和精密度的要求。  相似文献   

12.
分析了在当前履约压力下环境监测的薄弱与不足之处,提出了拓展环境空气监测内容,将生态调查和多样性监测纳入常规体系,推进有机监测技术发展,加大多边合作与联合监测的发展思路.  相似文献   

13.
为了解泰东河疏浚工程对通榆河水质的影响,于2012年6月8日、9月12日、12月6日,对泰东河沿线以及通榆河东台段进行调查取样,分析施工期间河体水质变化。结果表明,施工期间水质参数基本保持在Ⅱ~Ⅲ类。根据江苏省水环境监测中心盐城分中心2011年、2013年监测资料评价分析,泰东河河道疏浚后,清理了河床淤泥,提高了泰东河的行洪、抗洪以及通航能力,其水质的好转有效地改善了下游通榆河的水质,确保了饮水安全。  相似文献   

14.
简述了锅炉的风量和烟气量、锅炉燃料的消耗量以及锅炉运行负荷的估算方法。通过实例分析,用现场监测的实际风量与理论值比较,粗略估算出监测时段锅炉运行负荷,比对锅炉污染物监测时段的锅炉运行负荷标准,从而判断监测数据的准确性与有效性。  相似文献   

15.
Estimating the Ecological Condition of the Estuaries of the Gulf of Mexico   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Monitoring of estuaries in the Louisianian Province was performed annually from 1991–1994 to assess ecological conditions on a regional scale. We found over the four years of monitoring, 25±6% of Gulf of Mexico estuarine sediments in the Louisianian Province displayed poor biological conditions, as measured by benthic community structure, and 14±7% of the area was characterized by poor water clarity, the presence of marine debris, and elevated levels of fish tissue contaminants. Using statistical associations to discern relationships between ecological condition and exposure or stressor data has shown that much of this degraded' condition co-occurs with sediment contamination.  相似文献   

16.
In 1996, the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute and the Republic of Panama's Environmental Authority, with support fromthe United States Agency for International Development, undertook a comprehensive program to monitor the ecosystem of the Panama Canal watershed. The goals were to establish baselineindicators for the integrity of forest communities and rivers. Based on satellite image classification and ground surveys, the2790 km2 watershed had 1570 km2 of forest in 1997, 1080 km2 of which was in national parks and nature monuments. Most of the 490 km2 of forest not currently in protected areas lies along the west bank of the Canal, and its managementstatus after the year 2000 turnover of the Canal from the U.S. to Panama remains uncertain. In forest plots designed to monitorforest diversity and change, a total of 963 woody plant specieswere identified and mapped. We estimate there are a total of 850–1000 woody species in forests of the Canal corridor. Forestsof the wetter upper reaches of the watershed are distinct in species composition from the Canal corridor, and have considerably higher diversity and many unknown species. Theseremote areas are extensively forested, poorly explored, and harbor an estimated 1400–2200 woody species. Vertebrate monitoring programs were also initiated, focusing on species threatened by hunting and forest fragmentation. Large mammals are heavily hunted in most forests of Canal corridor, and therewas clear evidence that mammal density is greatly reduced in hunted areas and that this affects seed predation and dispersal. The human population of the watershed was 113 000 in 1990, and grew by nearly 4% per year from 1980 to 1990. Much of this growth was in a small region of the watershed on the outskirts of Panama City, but even rural areas, including villages near and within national parks, grew by 2% per year. There is no sewage treatment in the watershed, and many towns have no trashcollection, thus streams near large towns are heavily polluted. Analyses of sediment loads in rivers throughout the watershed did not indicate that erosion has been increasing as a result ofdeforestation, rather, erosion seems to be driven largely by total rainfall and heavy rainfall events that cause landslides.Still, models suggest that large-scale deforestation would increase landslide frequency, and failure to detect increases inerosion could be due to the gradual deforestation rate and the short time period over which data are available. A study of runoff showed deforestation increased the amount of water fromrainfall that passed directly into streams. As a result, dry season flow was reduced in a deforested catchment relative to aforested one. Currently, the Panama Canal watershed has extensive forest areasand streams relatively unaffected by humans. But impacts of hunting and pollution near towns are clear, and the burgeoningpopulation will exacerbate these impacts in the next few decades.Changes in policies regarding forest protection and pollution control are necessary.  相似文献   

17.
环境空气质量标准中各种污染物的浓度限值是评价、考核空气质量状况的基本依据。为了保证在不同时空、不同环境状况下监测数据的可比性,各个国家或组织在制定的空气质量标准中对标准状态(温度和压力)进行了定义。但是,由于标准状态定义不同,即使是同一环境状况下的同一实测结果进行标化计算后的污染物浓度也不相同,达不到可比性的基本原则。因此,建议中国在未来修订空气质量标准所采用的标准状态,进一步与国际接轨。  相似文献   

18.
北方重工业城市降水pH值与相关因素关系的研究   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
针对北方重工业城市出现的酸性降水和pH值降低的现象,采用集中监测、纵横对比、统计分析的方法,对降水pH值现状及与相关因子的关系进行了研究。结果显示,降水pH值依污染源排放的烟(粉)量的减少、环境空气中总悬浮微粒浓度的降低、机动车保有量的增加而向酸性发展,空气质量好的区域易发生酸雨,北方重工业城市"尘"重点治理以后酸雨和二氧化硫污染将出现加重趋势。仅靠削减二氧化硫排放量控制污染是不够的,重工业城市必须综合防治。  相似文献   

19.
太湖流域水体富营养化成因及防治对策的初步研究   总被引:16,自引:2,他引:16  
以较丰富的素材分析了太湖流域富营养化的成因及其危害性,同时阐述了水体富营养化的治理对策。  相似文献   

20.
Substantial amounts of NOx (146 000 t/y) and total hydrocarbons (294 000 t/y) are released to the marine atmosphere by the large number of oil and gas operations over Federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Under appropriate meteorological conditions these emissions react to form ozone (0–54 g/m3 over-water) which can affect the marine environment. Using a dry deposition model, this work examines the amount of ozone derived from oil and gas offshore operations and deposited in the sea surface of the Gulf of Mexico, and assesses its impact on the neuston of the sea-surface microlayer. Surface integrated estimates of ozone deposited from oil and gas operations over the sea surface ranges from 400 kg to 1800 kg which results in sea surface concentrations of 15 g/m3. This estimate and the actual toxic ozone levels suggest no acute, toxic impacts to the neuston. However, indirect effects may occur through changes to the pelagic foodwebs and organic carbon pathways. Another potential pathway for ozone impacting the environment is through the production of bromate. Based on the concentrations and time scales (11–139 days) only sublethal effects appear to occur, but uncertainties associated with this assessment need to be further studied. From an ecological perspective, the environmental impacts and risks of NOx and VOC discharges from offshore platforms need to be assessed for neuston and other components of the marine ecosystem.  相似文献   

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