Assessing spatio-temporal trend of vector breeding and dengue fever incidence in association with meteorological conditions

Th aim of this study is to investigate spatio-temporal trends of dengue vector breeding and epidemic (disease incidence) influenced by climatic factors. The spatio-temporal (low-, medium-, and high-intensity periods) evaluation of entomological and epidemiological investigations along with climatic factors like rainfall (RF), temperature (T_max), relative humidity (RH), and larval indexing was conducted to develop correlations in the area of Lahore, Pakistan. The vector abundance and disease transmission trend was geo-tagged for spatial insight. The sufficient rainfall events and optimum temperature and relative humidity supported dengue vector breeding with high larval indices for water-related containers (27–37%). Among temporal analysis, the high-intensity period exponentially projected disease incidence followed by post-rainfall impacts. The high larval incidence that was observed in early high-intensity periods effected the dengue incidence. The disease incidence had a strong association with RF (r = 0.940, α = 0.01). The vector larva occurrence (r = 0.017, α = 0.05) influenced the disease incidence. Similarly, RH (r = 0.674, α = 0.05) and average T_max (r = 0.307, α = 0.05) also induced impact on the disease incidence. In this study, the vulnerability to dengue fever highly correlates with meteorological factors during high-intensity period. It provides area-specific understanding of vector behavior, key containers, and seasonal patterns of dengue vector breeding and disease transmission which is essential for preparing an effective prevention plan against the vector.     

Relationships of relative humidity with PM<Subscript>2.5</Subscript> and PM<Subscript>10</Subscript> in the Yangtze River Delta,China

Severe particulate matter (PM, including PM_2.5 and PM₁₀) pollution frequently impacts many cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in China, which has aroused growing concern. In this study, we examined the associations between relative humidity (RH) and PM pollution using the equal step-size statistical method. Our results revealed that RH had an inverted U-shaped relationship with PM_2.5 concentrations (peaking at RH = 45–70%), and an inverted V-shaped relationship (peaking at RH = 40 ± 5%) with PM₁₀, SO₂, and NO₂. The trends of polluted-day number significantly changed at RH = 70%. The very-dry (RH < 45%), dry (RH = 45–60%) and low-humidity (RH = 60–70%) conditions positively affected PM_2.5 and exerted an accumulation effect, while the mid-humidity (RH = 70–80%), high-humidity (RH = 80–90%), and extreme-humidity (RH = 90–100%) conditions played a significant role in reducing particle concentrations. For PM₁₀, the accumulation and reduction effects of RH were split at RH = 45%. Moreover, an upward slope in the PM_2.5/PM₁₀ ratio indicated that the accumulation effects from increasing RH were more intense on PM_2.5 than on PM₁₀, while the opposite was noticed for the reduction effects. Secondary transformations from SO₂ and NO₂ to sulfate and nitrate were mainly responsible for PM_2.5 pollution, and thus, controlling these precursors is effective in mitigating the PM pollution in the YRD, especially during winter. The conclusions in this study will be helpful for regional air-quality management.     

Ordinal time series model for forecasting air quality index for ozone in Southern California

Air quality index (AQI) for ozone is currently divided into six states depending on the level of public health concern. Generalized linear type modeling is a convenient and effective way to handle the AQI state, which can be characterized as non-stationary ordinal-valued time series. Various link functions which include cumulative logit, cumulative probit, and complimentary log-log are considered, and the partial maximum likelihood method is used for estimation. For a comparison purpose, the identity link, which yields a multiple regression model on the cumulative probabilities, is also considered. Random time-varying covariates include past AQI states, various meteorological processes, and periodic components. For model selection and comparison, the partial likelihood ratio tests, AIC and SIC are used. The proposed models are applied to 3 years of daily AQI ozone data from a station in San Bernardino County, CA. An independent year-long data from the same station are used to evaluate the performance of day-ahead forecasts of AQI state. The results show that the logit and probit models remove the non-stationarity in residuals, and both models successfully forecast day-ahead AQI states with almost 90 % of the chance.     

Estimation of chlorpyriphos and cypermethrin residues in chilli (Capsicum annuum L.) by gas–liquid chromatography

Dissipation of chlorpyriphos and cypermethrin in chilli was studied following three applications of a combination formulation of Nurelle-D 505 (chlorpyriphos 50 %?+?cypermethrin 5 %) at 1 and 2 L?ha^?1 at an interval of 15 days. Residues of chlorpyriphos and cypermethrin in chilli were estimated by gas–liquid chromatography and confirmed by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. Half-life periods for chlorpyriphos were found to be 4.43 and 2.01 days, whereas for cypermethrin these values were observed to be 2.51 and 2.64 days at single and double the application rates, respectively. Residues of chlorpyriphos dissipated to more than 80 % after 10 days at both the dosages. However, residues of cypermethrin dissipated to the extent of more than 70 % in 7 days. Soil samples collected after 15 days of the last application did not show the presence of chlorpyriphos and cypermethrin at their respective determination limit of 0.01 mg?kg^?1. The use of chlorpyriphos and cypermethrin mixture at the recommended dosage does not seem to pose any hazards to the consumers, and a waiting period of 1 day is suggested to reduce the risk before consumption of green chilli.     

Study of atmospheric stagnation, recirculation and ventilation potential at Narora Atomic Power Station NPP site

The atmosphere is an important pathway to be considered in assessment of the environmental impact of radioactivity releases from nuclear facilities. The estimation of concentration of released effluents in air and possible ground contamination needs an understanding of relevant atmospheric dispersion. This paper describes the meteorological characteristics of Narora Atomic Power Station (NAPS) Nuclear Power Project site by using the integral parameters developed by Allwine and Whiteman (Atmospheric Environment 28(4):713–721, 1994). Meteorological data measured during the period 2006–2010 were analysed. The integral quantities related to the occurrence of stagnation, recirculation and ventilation characteristics were studied for the NAPS site to assess the dilution potential of the atmosphere. Wind run and recirculation factors were calculated for a 24-h transport time using 5 years of hourly surface measurements of wind speed and direction. The occurrence of stagnation, recirculation and ventilation characteristics during 2006–2010 at the NAPS site is observed to be 33.8, 19.5 and 34.7 % of the time, respectively. The presence of strong winds with predominant wind direction NW and WNW during winter and summer seasons leads to higher ventilation (48.1 and 44.3 %) and recirculation (32.6 % of the summer season). The presence of more dispersed light winds during pre-winter season with predominant wind directions W and WNW results in more stagnation (59.7 % of the pre-winter season). Thus, this study will serve as an essential meteorological tool to understand the transport mechanism of atmospheric radioactive effluent release from any nuclear industry during the pre-operational as well as operational phase.     

SPME-based air sampling method for inhalation exposure assessment studies: case study on perchlorethylene exposure in dry cleaning

Exposure to perchlorethylene, especially for dry cleaning workers and for people living near dry cleaning shops, could lead to several diseases and disorders. This study examines the value of solid-phase microextraction (SPME) for sampling perchlorethylene in the atmosphere of dry cleaning shops. Carboxen/polydimethylsiloxane (CAR/PDMS) in 0.5-cm retracted mode was selected. There were no significant differences between sampling rates at different temperatures (range of 20 to 30 °C) and air velocities (2 to 50 cm/s). On the opposite, relative humidity (RH) had a significant effect on sampling rates. Method reproducibility was realized in the laboratory and field conditions and was 6.2 % and 7 to 11 %, respectively. Repeatability was also determined as 8.9 %. Comparison of the results according to the American Industrial Hygiene Association exposure assessment strategy showed the SPME sampler yields more conservative results in comparison with traditional standard method.     

Fluoride pollution of atmospheric precipitation and its relationship with air circulation and weather patterns (Wielkopolski National Park, Poland)

A 2-year study (2010–2011) of fluorides in atmospheric precipitation in the open area and in throughfall in Wielkopolski National Park (west-central Poland) showed their high concentrations, reaching a maximum value of 2 mg/l under the tree crowns. These high values indicate substantial deposition of up to 52 mg/m²/year. In 2011, over 51 % of open area precipitation was characterized by fluoride concentration higher than 0.10 mg/l, and in throughfall such concentrations were found in more than 86 % of events. In 2010, a strong connection was evident between fluoride and acid-forming ions, and in 2011, a correlation between phosphate and nitrite ions was seen. Analysis of available data on F^? concentrations in the air did not show an unequivocal effect on F^? concentrations in precipitation. To find reasons for and source areas of high fluoride pollution, the cases of extreme fluoride concentration in rainwater were related to atmospheric circulation and weather patterns. Weather conditions on days of extreme pollution were determined by movement of weather fronts over western Poland, or by small cyclonic centers with meteorological fronts. Macroscale air advection over the sampling site originated in the western quadrant (NW, W, and SW), particularly in the middle layers of the troposphere (2,500–5,000 m a.s.l.). Such directions indicate western Poland and Germany as possible sources of the pollution. At the same time in the lower troposphere, air inflow was frequently from the north, showing short distance transport from local emitters, and from the agglomeration of Poznań.     

The Comparison of Lagrangian and Gaussian Models in Predicting of Air Pollution Emission Using Experimental Study,a Case Study: Ammonia Emission

Ammonia, as a colorless gas with a sharp odor, is considered as one of the created odors in the composting and landfill of solid waste. We used experimental data to study the robustness of AERMOD and the forward Lagrangian stochastic (FLS) in predicting ammonia emission in short range. The study area was Kahrizak landfill and composting plants, Tehran, Iran. The boundary layer parameters for the FLS were calculated on the basis of mean values of temperature, wind speed, and direction. While, the boundary layers of AERMOD were computed on the basis of exact meteorological data. The results depicted that AERMOD prediction at distances less than 1000 m from the sources and the locations inside the sources were poor. However, the results of FLS indicated more agreement with the field measurement, which the coefficient of determination was 0.83. Both models predicted, in the distance of 2000 m from the source, the ammonia concentration would be insignificant.     

Vertical ozone characteristics in urban boundary layer in Beijing

Vertical ozone and meteorological parameters were measured by tethered balloon in the boundary layer in the summer of 2009 in Beijing, China. A total of 77 tethersonde soundings were taken during the 27-day campaign. The surface ozone concentrations measured by ozonesondes and TEI 49C showed good agreement, albeit with temporal difference between the two instruments. Two case studies of nocturnal secondary ozone maxima are discussed in detail. The development of the low-level jet played a critical role leading to the observed ozone peak concentrations in nocturnal boundary layer (NBL). The maximum of surface ozone was 161.7 ppbv during the campaign, which could be attributed to abundant precursors storage near surface layer at nighttime. Vertical distribution of ozone was also measured utilizing conventional continuous analyzers on 325-m meteorological observation tower. The results showed the NBL height was between 47 and 280 m, which were consistent with the balloon data. Southerly air flow could bring ozone-rich air to Beijing, and the ozone concentrations exceeded the China’s hourly ozone standard (approximately 100 ppb) above 600 m for more than 12 h.     

Water quality change in dam reservoir and shallow aquifer: analysis on trend,seasonal variability and data reduction

Change of water quality in dam reservoir and aquifer complicates safe drinking water supply. Few parameters are monitored to control water quality in these sources. Adequate knowledge on the correlation structure, interaction effect, trends and seasonal variability of these parameters is essential to control water quality. This study applied time series and multivariate analyses on 15 water quality parameters, collected from the King Fahd dam reservoir (L1) and aquifer (L2) in Saudi Arabia during April 2010 to February 2012. Moderate to strong correlations were observed between sulfate, hardness, fluoride, chloride, magnesium, conductivity, turbidity and total dissolved solids (TDS), while separate clusters were visible for TDS-chloride-magnesium-conductivity; fluoride-turbidity; chloride-hardness; ammonia-nitrate; and calcium-magnesium-hardness. Four major principal components explained 81.1 % and 83.2 % of the overall variances in L1 and L2, respectively. The factor analysis showed that 53 % and 67 % of the data were necessary to explain 81.3 % and 83.2 % of total variances for L1 and L2, respectively, indicating the possibility of data reduction. Possible degradation of water quality in these sources was highlighted, while such degradation may require enhanced treatment for producing drinking water in future.     

Evaluating Phosphorus Loss for Watershed Management: Integrating a Weighting Scheme of Watershed Heterogeneity into Export Coefficient Model

The identification of critical source areas (CSAs) and critical source periods (CSPs) are essential prerequisites for cost-effective practices of non-point source (NPS) pollution control. A simple empirical tool combining Export Coefficient Model (ECM) and a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based weighting scheme of watershed heterogeneity was proposed to estimate annual and monthly phosphorus loss, to identify critical source areas and periods, and to assess pollution control practices. The GIS-based weighting scheme was developed to represent the transport potential of runoff to move phosphorus from the land surfaces to waters, as a supplement to the source-based ECM. The empirical tool was applied to the Dianchi Lake watershed of China. The results showed that the total phosphorus loss from NPS in 2008 was 352.3 tons. The agricultural land was recognized as the largest and the most spatially various source type. The lakeside plain and the terraces of the watershed were identified as CSAs, which generated more than 90 % of non-point phosphorus. The early part of wet season (from May to August) was the CSPs, when about 70 % of non-point phosphorus was lost. The reduction of phosphorus fertilizers and the vegetated buffer strips (VBS) were effective in controlling phosphorus loss from NPS in the watershed. A reduction of 20 % in phosphorus fertilizer application combined with the set-up of VBS in both riparian area of the main watercourses and the lakeside areas would decrease 25 % of phosphorus loss.     

Monitoring of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Vistula basin (Poland)

The article presents the course of meteorological droughts in Vistula subcatchments in years 1981–2010 and their influence on the occurrence of hydrological droughts. Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as an indicator of meteorological drought on the one hand and the Standardized Water-level Index (SWI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) as indicators of hydrological drought on the other, the mutual relationships between precipitation conditions and hydrological conditions were evaluated, as well as the relationships between the two drought types. Studies were conducted for three cumulative periods of these indices, of 12, 24, and 48 months. It was determined that meteorological droughts occurred earliest in the north-western and central part of the basin, and latest in areas lying above 300 m a.s.l. and in the south of Poland. Total duration, depending on the cumulative period, for SPI comprised from 38 to 41% of the analyzed period and for SWI (35–47%) and SRI (24–51%). The strongest relationships were identified in the central part of the Vistula (0.8?<?r?<?0.85), while the weakest relationships were recorded in the foothill region (r?<?0.5). There were also indicated non-climate-related factors influencing those relationships (underground reservoirs, diverse Vistula water resource usage for municipal and industrial intake).     

Geostatistical analysis as applied to two environmental radiometric time series

This article details the results of an investigation into the application of geostatistical data analysis to two environmentalradiometric time series. The data series employed consist of ⁹⁹Tc values for seaweed (Fucus vesiculosus) and seawater samples taken as part of a marine monitoring program conducted on the coast of northern Norway by the Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority. Geostatistical methods were selected in order to provide information on values of the variables at unsampled times and to investigate the temporalcorrelation exhibited by the data sets. This information is ofuse in the optimisation of future sampling schemes and for providing information on the temporal behaviour of the variablesin question that may not be obtained during a cursory analysis.The results indicate a high degree of temporal correlation withinthe data sets, the correlation for the seawater and seaweed databeing modelled with an exponential and linear function,respectively. The semi-variogram for the seawater data indicatesa temporal range of correlation of approximately 395 days with noapparent random component to the overall variance structure and was described best by an exponential function. The temporal structure of the seaweed data was best modelled by a linear function with a small nugget component. Evidence of drift was present in both semi-variograms. Interpolation of the data setsusing the fitted models and a simple kriging procedure were compared, using a cross-validation procedure, with simple linearinterpolation. Results of this exercise indicate that, for theseawater data, the kriging procedure outperformed the simpleinterpolation with respect to error distribution andcorrelation of estimates with actual values. Using theunbounded linear model with the seaweed data produced estimatesthat were only marginally better than those produced by thesimple interpolation.     

Mobility and ecological risk assessment of trace metals in polluted estuarine sediments using a sequential extraction scheme

The three-stage sequential extraction procedure for the fractionation of Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn, proposed by the Commission of the European Communities Bureau of Reference, was applied to sediment five samples collected from the Sal estuary, Sergipe State, northeast Brazil, in September 2009. The method showed satisfactory recoveries, detection limits, and standard deviations for determinations of trace metals in the sediments. Cd and Pb were the metals most prevalent in the bioavailable fractions (carbonates, Fe and Mn oxides, organic matter, and sulfides), while Ni, Zn, Cu, and Cr showed higher percentages in the inert fraction. The order of mobility of the metals was Cd (66 %) > Pb (65 %) > Zn (59 %) > Ni (57 %) = Cr (57 %) > Cu (56 %). Possible toxicity related to these metals was examined using the risk assessment code, and by comparing the chemical data with sediment quality guideline ERL-ERM values. Results obtained using the two methods were in agreement, and showed low to medium risk for all metals, indicating that adverse effects on aquatic biota should rarely occur.     

Precipitable water modelling using artificial neural network in Çukurova region

Precipitable water (PW) is an important atmospheric variable for climate system calculation. Local monthly mean PW values were measured by daily radiosonde observations for the time period from 1990 to 2006. Artificial neural network (ANN) method was applied for modeling and prediction of mean precipitable water data in Çukurova region, south of Turkey. We applied Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) learning algorithm and logistic sigmoid transfer function in the network. In order to train our neural network we used data of Adana station, which are assumed to give a general idea about the precipitable water of Çukurova region. Thus, meteorological and geographical data (altitude, temperature, pressure, and humidity) were used in the input layer of the network for Çukurova region. Precipitable water was the output. Correlation coefficient (R²) between the predicted and measured values for monthly mean daily sum with LM method values was found to be 94.00% (training), 91.84% (testing), respectively. The findings revealed that the ANN-based prediction technique for estimating PW values is as effective as meteorological radiosonde observations. In addition, the results suggest that ANN method values be used so as to predict the precipitable water.     

Monitoring the changes in impervious surface ratio and urban heat island intensity between 1987 and 2011 in Szeged,Hungary

Landsat time series data make it possible to continuously map and examine urban land cover changes and effects on urban environments. The objectives of this study are (1) to map and analyse an impervious surface and its changes within a census district and (2) to monitor the effects of increasing impervious surface ratios on population and environment. We used satellite images from 1987, 2003 and 2011 to map the impervious surface ratio in the census district of Szeged, Hungary through normalized spectral mixture analysis. Significant increases were detected from 1987 to 2011 in industrial areas (5.7–9.1%) and inner residential areas (2.5–4.8%), whereas decreases were observed in the city centre and housing estates due to vegetation growth. Urban heat island (UHI) values were derived from the impervious surface fraction map to analyse the impact of urban land cover changes. In 2011, the average value in the industrial area was 1.76 °C, whereas that in the inner residential area was 1.35–1.69 °C. In the city centre zones and housing estates, values ranging from 1.4 to 1.5 °C and from 1.29 to 1.5 °C, respectively, were observed. Our study reveals that long-term land cover changes can be derived at the district level from Landsat images and that their effects can be identified and analysed, providing important information for city planners and policy makers.     

Using electrical resistivity tomography to assess the effectiveness of managed aquifer recharge in a salinized coastal aquifer

Over 40 years, the detrital aquifer of the Plana de Castellón (Spanish Mediterranean coast) has been subjected to seawater intrusion because of long dry periods combined with intensive groundwater exploitation. Against this backdrop, a managed artificial recharge (MAR) scheme was implemented to improve the groundwater quality. The large difference between the electrical conductivity (EC) of the ambient groundwater (brackish water due to marine intrusion) and the recharge water (freshwater) meant that there was a strong contrast between the resistivities of the brackish water saturated zone and the freshwater saturated zone. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) can be used for surveying similar settings to evaluate the effectiveness of artificial recharge schemes. By integrating geophysical data with lithological information, EC logs from boreholes, and hydrochemical data, we can interpret electrical resistivity (ER) with groundwater EC values and so identify freshwater saturated zones. Using this approach, ERT images provided a high-resolution spatial characterization and an accurate picture of the shape and extent of the recharge plume of the MAR site. After 5 months of injection, a freshwater plume with an EC of 400–600 μS/cm had formed that extended 400 m in the W-E direction, 250 m in the N-S direction, and to a depth of 40 m below piezometric level. This study also provides correlations between ER values with different lithologies and groundwater EC values that can be used to support other studies.     

Short-Term Forecasting of Nitrogen Dioxide (NO<Subscript>2</Subscript>) Levels Using a Hybrid Statistical and Air Mass History Modelling Approach

A novel hybrid model has been developed to support the provision of real-time air quality forecasts. Statistical techniques have been applied in parallel with air mass history modelling to provide an efficient and accurate forecasting system with the ability to identify high NO₂ events, which tend to be the episodes of most significance in Ireland. Air mass history modelling and k-means clustering are used to identify air mass types that lead to high NO₂ levels in Ireland. Trajectory matching techniques allow data associated with these air masses to be partitioned during model development. Non-parametric regression (NPR) has been applied to describe nonlinear variations in concentration levels with wind speed, direction and season and produce a set of linearized factors which, together with other meteorological variables, are employed as inputs to a multiple linear regression. The model uses an innovative integrated approach to combine the NPR with the air mass history modelling results. On validation, a correlation coefficient of 0.75 was obtained, and 91 % of daily maximum (hourly averaged) NO₂ predictions were within a factor of two of the measured value. High pollution events were well captured, as indicated by strong agreement between measured and modelled high percentile values. The model requires only simple input data, does not require an emission inventory and utilises very low computational resources. It represents an accurate and efficient means of producing real-time air quality forecasts and, when used in combination with forecaster experience, is a useful tool for identifying periods of poor air quality 24 h in advance. The hybrid approach outlined in this paper can easily be applied to produce high-quality forecasts of both NO₂ and additional pollutants at new locations/countries where historical monitoring data are available.     

基于大数据分析的大气网格化监测质控技术研究

基于对现阶段中国环境空气的污染特征及监测手段进行分析,研究了如何采用传感器技术进行大气污染防治网格化监测。对标物校准、训化校准、自适应校准、传递校准等校准质控技术进行了充分研究并基于此建立了自主学习神经网络算法的校准体系。为解决传感器应用过程中零点漂移、温度和湿度漂移、时间漂移等问题,利用大数据、基因算法成功开发出了智能数据修正模型,实现了低成本、高稳定、具有相当精度且可自动化运行的网格化监测体系。     

Use of continuous monitoring to assess stream nitrate flux and transformation patterns

Delivery of nitrogen from farmed fields to the stream network is an ongoing water quality issue in central North America and other parts of the world. Although fertilization and other farming practices have been refined to produce environmental improvements, stemming loss of nitrogen, especially in the soluble nitrate form, is a problem that has seemingly defied solution. The Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy is a policy initiative designed to implement conservation and other farm management practices to produce reductions in nitrate loading. The strategy does not focus on how the streams themselves may or may not be processing nitrogen and reducing downstream loading. We used continuous high-frequency nitrate and discharge monitoring over 3 years at two sites separated by 18 km in a low-order, agricultural stream in eastern Iowa to estimate how nitrogen is processed, and whether or not these processes are reducing downstream loading. We conclude that the upstream to downstream nitrate concentration decline between the two sites was not driven by denitrification. These data also show that nitrate concentrations are closely coupled to discharge during periods of adequate moisture, but decoupling of concentration from discharge occurs during dry periods. This decoupling is a possible indicator of in-stream nitrate processing. Finally, nitrate concentrations are likely diluted by water sourced from non-row crop land covers in the lower reaches of the watershed.