Meat,Dairy and Climate Change: Assessing the Long-Term Mitigation Potential of Alternative Agri-Food Consumption Patterns in Canada

We use a newly developed model of the entire Canadian energy system (TIMES-Canada) to assess the climate change mitigation potential of different agri-food consumption patterns in Canada. For this, our model has been extended by disaggregating the agricultural demand sector into individual agri-food demands to allow for a more in-depth analysis. Besides a business-as-usual (baseline) scenario, we have constructed four different agri-food scenarios to assess the viability of reducing Canadian meat and dairy consumption in order to diminish Canada’s agricultural sector energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Our policy scenarios progressively restrict the consumption of different meat and dairy agricultural products until the year 2030. Our results suggest that the implementation of a meat and dairy consumption reduction policy would lead to a 10 to 40 % reduction in agricultural GHG emissions, depending on the severity of the scenario. This translates to a 1 to 3 % decrease in total Canadian GHG emissions by the year 2030. Besides these environmental benefits, health benefits associated with a reduction in meat and dairy consumption (as inferred from other studies) are presented as an additional source of motivation for implementing such a policy in Canada.     

Energy-related carbon emissions mitigation potential for the construction sector in China

China is undertaking a huge number of building and infrastructure projects. As a large consumer of energy-intensive building material, the construction activities provoke large direct carbon emissions in upstream industrial sectors (i.e. embodied carbon emissions). This paper aims to explore how construction-related climate policies could contribute to future national carbon emission mitigation efforts by employing a demand-side input-output model and scenario analysis. First, a hypothetical extraction approach is used to estimate the overall carbon emissions induced by the construction sector in the base year. Then scenario analysis is conducted to quantify the sector's technical potential for carbon mitigation in 2030 and 2050. We find that implementing construction-related climate measures in China could mitigate 2.5 Gt construction-induced CO2 in 2030, and 6.4 Gt in 2050 — more than Europe's annual total carbon emissions in 2015. More efficient electricity use could make a substantial contribution in the short-term. However, material-related initiatives, especially those focused on metal recycling, could yield significant carbon mitigation from 2030 onwards. Our findings suggest China to optimize the relationship between urbanization and construction to comply with the country's climate commitments better. Mechanisms to reform supply-side incentives, such as mandatory carbon labelling for construction material throughout the supply chain, could offer immediate benefits.     

Review of PSR framework and development of a DPSIR model to assess greenhouse effect in Taiwan

In dealing with the complex issues of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and climate change mitigation, many interrelated factors such as cost, level of technology development, supply and demand of energy, structure of industry, and expenditures on research and development exist. Using indicators to monitor environmental impacts and evaluate the efficacies of policies and regulations has been practiced for a long time, and it can serve as a useful tool for decision making and for comparison between different countries. Although numerous indicators have been developed for relevant subjects, integrated approaches that consider individual changes, dynamic interaction, and multi-dimensions of indicators are scarce. This paper aimed to develop a Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework to assess the problems. This DPSIR model is mainly related to energy consumption, environmental impacts, and policy responses. The objectives of the paper were: (1) conduct a literature review on the indicators that have been used in GHG-related studies; (2) develop a DPSIR model that incorporates GHG-related indicators and evaluate their relationships using a cause?Ceffect chain of GHG emission; and (3) develop a calculative method that can be used to explain the dynamic correlation among the interdependent indicators. Taiwan is a significant source of global GHG emissions. A case study, using the developed framework and Taiwan??s actual data of the past two decades, was conducted. The results indicate that regulatory strategies for pollution control are inadequate in terms of ensuring environmental quality, and the nature does not have the capability to revert the impacts from the existing level of pollution.     

Marginal Abatement Costs and Marginal Welfare Costs for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions: Results from the EPPA Model

Marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves, relationships between tonnes of emissions abated and the CO₂ (or greenhouse gas (GHG)) price, have been widely used as pedagogic devices to illustrate simple economic concepts such as the benefits of emissions trading. They have also been used to produce reduced-form models to examine situations where solving the more complex model underlying the MAC is difficult. Some important issues arise in such applications: (1) Are MAC relationships independent of what happens in other regions?, (2) are MACs stable through time regardless of what policies have been implemented in the past?, and (3) can one approximate welfare costs from MACs? This paper explores the basic characteristics of MAC and marginal welfare cost (MWC) curves, deriving them using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model. We find that, depending on the method used to construct them, MACs are affected by policies abroad. They are also dependent on policies in place in the past and depend on whether they are CO₂-only or include all GHGs. Further, we find that MACs are, in general, not closely related to MWCs and therefore should not be used to derive estimates of welfare change. We also show that, as commonly constructed, MACs may be unreliable in replicating results of the parent model when used to simulate GHG policies. This is especially true if the policy simulations differ from the conditions under which the MACs were simulated.     

Modeling lifetime greenhouse gas emissions associated with materials for various end-of-life treatments

This research has developed mathematical models for computing lifetime greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with materials. The models include embodied carbon (EC) emissions from the manufacture of materials, and GHG emissions from incineration, or landfill gas (LFG) production from landfill disposal of the material beyond their service lives. The models are applicable to all materials; however, their applications here are demonstrated for the lumber from a residential building with 50- and 100-year service lives, and with incineration, landfill, and deconstruction as end-of-life treatments. This paper introduces a new metric for lifetime GHG emissions associated with materials termed “Global Warming Impact of Materials (GWIM).” The GWIM is subdivided into two portions: (i) productive portion (GWIM_p) that includes the materials’ emissions until the service life of the facility and (ii) non-productive portion (GWIM_np) which includes the materials’ GHG emissions beyond the service life until they are eliminated from the atmosphere. In place of the current, static, EC measurements (kgCO₂e or MTCO₂e), this model reports the GWIMs in units of kgCO₂e-years or MTCO₂e-years, which includes the effects of “time of use” of a facility. Using the models, this paper has computed GHG reductions by deconstruction, with material recoveries of 30%, 50%, and 70% at demolition for reuse, recycle, or repurpose. A 70% material recovery, after a 50-year service life of the building, affected a savings of 47% and 52% if the remaining 30% debris was incinerated or landfilled respectively. All of the values computed using models checked out with manual calculations.     

Assessment of potential impacts of municipal solid waste treatment alternatives by using life cycle approach: a case study in Vietnam

In Vietnam, most of municipal solid waste (MSW) is disposed of at open dumping and landfill sites, and the methane gas from waste is the un-ignorable source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. It is indispensable to explore the possibility for GHG mitigation in MSW management. The objective of this study was to estimate alternative waste treatment practices towards the GHG emission mitigation, energy consumption and generation, reduction of landfill volume, and various benefits for proposing the appropriate selection by scenario analyses for representative Vietnam’s cities. Impacts were calculated by utilizing life cycle assessment (LCA) method. A literature review survey on the current applicability of LCA database for assessing impacts from waste sector in developing countries, especially for Vietnam, was carried out. This study assessed the contribution of alternative solid waste treatment practices. The result showed that, except investment and operation costs, incineration with energy recovery seems the suitable alternative for treating waste from representative cities of Vietnam according to reduction of GHG emission and waste burden to landfill sites and energy recovery and generation. Besides, MSW composition was identified as an important factor directly influencing to impacts as well as other products and benefits of waste treatment alternatives. Reliable data on waste composition are indispensable for assessing to choose, improve, or plan the waste treatment practices towards sustainable development.     

Monitoring variation in greenhouse gases concentration in Urban Environment of Delhi

Cities across the globe are considered as major anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gases (GHG), yet very few efforts has been made to monitor ambient concentration of GHG in cities, especially in a developing country like India. Here, variations in the ambient concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) in residential, commercial, and industrial areas of Delhi are determined from fortnightly daytime observations from July, 2008 to March, 2009. Results indicate that the average daytime ambient concentration of CO₂ varied from 495 to 554 ppm in authorized residential areas, 503 to 621 ppm in the slums or jhuggies in the unauthorized residential areas, 489 to 582 ppm in commercial areas, and 512 to 568 ppm in industrial areas with an average of 541?±?27 ppm. CH₄ concentration varied from 652 to 5,356 ppbv in authorized residential areas, 500 to15,220 ppbv in the unauthorized residential areas, 921 to 11,000 ppbv in the commercial areas, and 250 to 2,550 ppbv in the industrial areas with an average of 3,226?±?1,090 ppbv. A low mid-afternoon CO₂ concentration was observed at most of the sites, primarily due to strong biospheric photosynthesis coupled with strong vertical mixing.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from two hydroelectric reservoirs in Mediterranean region

Water reservoirs are used for many purposes, such as water supply, irrigation, flood mitigation, and hydroelectric energy generation. Although hydroelectric energy is considered “green,” many studies show that the construction of a reservoir enhances greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at the transformed area. These emissions, mainly of CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O gases, depend on the age of the reservoir, landscape and soil composition, fauna and flora remnants of the impounded area, climatic conditions, and basin runoffs. Consequently, GHG emissions significantly vary between reservoirs and depending on local specificities. Several studies have investigated GHG emissions from reservoirs around the world, focusing mainly on reservoirs located in cold regions, temperate regions, and tropical regions. Research is lacking for reservoirs in Mediterranean countries, like Greece, and similar regions. This work initially assesses the net GHG emissions of a newly created reservoir (Ilarion est. 2012) in Western Macedonia, Greece. The methodology for net GHG emission calculation was based on the use of literature data concerning pre-impoundment emission factors and local specificities of the reservoir (terrain type, canopy cover), as well as on the 2-year measurement data that were collected using a “static floating chamber.” Furthermore, in this work, the gross GHG emissions of an older, in-line reservoir (Polyfytos est. 1974) were also calculated, based on 2-year measurement data. The results show that the global warming potential (GWP) of the reservoirs is dictated by methane emissions; it minimizes during winter and spring and maximizes during summer and autumn. Hydroelectric energy production at Ilarion Reservoir results in 32 to 97 times less total CO₂ equivalent emissions in comparison to fossil fuels, while at Polyfytos Reservoir only 8 to 24 times less (based on gross emissions). It appears that the impact of a reservoir’s morphology on GHG emissions is more significant than that of a reservoir’s age.     

The evolution of city-scale GHG emissions inventory methods: A systematic review

The capacity of cities to act on climate change mitigation is essential to fulfil the Paris Agreement target. In order to do so, cities should establish an effective climate policy which requires, as a first step, a complete greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory. The accurate city-scale GHG inventory enables cities to develop, implement and track climate solution measures, mainly those related to transportation. The compilation of a city-scale GHG inventory requires a standardized method and up-to-date activity data. This systematic review critically examines 40 articles over the past 20 years to (1) identify city-scale GHG inventory methods being applied worldwide, (2) evaluate how these methods are evolving, (3) elaborate how emissions from transport sector are being estimated, and (4) determine what data types and sources of transport-related data are being used. The review was limited to articles that addressed the process of compilation of a GHG inventory. The results demonstrate that city-scale GHG inventory methods evolved from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines to a variety of GHG accounting methods that offer levels of complexity to estimate city-scale emissions. Although GHG inventory methods for city-scale have advanced over the years, almost one third of the articles reviewed were focused on the proposal of a GHG inventory framework, adjusting current methods to each city's reality or proposing new ones. The majority of the cities analysed lack local transport-related data to measure GHG emissions based on the bottom-up approach. Yet, more than 40% of the articles managed to deliver the bottom-up inventory using a diversity of data types and sources. This review shows that there is still a path to achieve a globally compatible method. This would require a joint effort between researchers and city authorities to make international protocols more compliant to each city's data availability along with the improvement of cities data collection.     

Modeling a Carbon Capture,Transport, and Storage Infrastructure for Europe

In this paper, we develop a model to analyze the economics of carbon capture, transport, and storage (CCTS) in the wake of expected rising CO₂ prices. We present a scalable mixed integer, multiperiod, welfare-optimizing network model for Europe, called CCTS-Mod. The model incorporates endogenous decisions on carbon capture, pipeline and storage investments, as well as capture, flow and injection quantities based on given costs, CO₂ prices, storage capacities, and point source emissions. Given full information about future costs of CCTS-technology, and CO₂ prices, the model determines a cost minimizing strategy on whether to purchase CO₂ certificates, or to abate the CO₂ through investments into a CCTS-chain on a site by site basis. We apply the model to analyze different scenarios for the deployment of CCTS in Europe, e.g., under high and low CO₂ prices, respectively. We find that beyond CO₂ prices of €50 per t, CCTS can contribute to the decarbonization of Europe’s industry sectors, as long as one assumes sufficient storage capacities (onshore and/or offshore). We find that CCTS is only viable for the power sector if the CO₂ certificate price exceeds €75 per t.     

Estimation of Water Demand in Iran Based on SARIMA Models

The generation of synthetic, residential water demands that can reproduce essential statistical features of historical residential water consumption is essential for planning, design, and operation of water resource systems. Most residential water consumption series are seasonal and nonstationary. We employ the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fit this model to monthly residential water consumption in Iran from May 2001 to March 2010. We find that a three-parameter log-logistic distribution fits the model residuals adequately. We forecast values for 1 year ahead using the fitted SARIMA model.     

Modelling of Materials Policies

This paper discusses the REAP1 model and its application for the analysis of CO₂ reduction and waste management policies for Japanese petrochemicals. The pros and cons of this modelling approach in comparison to other tools is elaborated. This is followed by a discussion of the model code and the modelling results. The results show that CO₂ policies can have significant impacts on waste flows and waste policies can have significant CO₂ benefits. As a consequence both effects must be considered in policy assessment. Pricing instruments are recommended instead of regulations because of the complex physical relations in the materials life cycle that extend beyond sector boundaries. A taxation approach is superior to a subsidy approach because rebound effects can be avoided.     

Urban form and spatial structure as determinants of per capita greenhouse gas emissions considering possible endogeneity and compensation behaviors

Modifying the form and spatial structure of cities through urban planning can be an effective means to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in cities. The supporters of the Compact City Approach to urban sustainability propose dense and centralized urban systems. In the case of population density, they argue that it promotes displacements of foot and public transport, and that typical apartments of compact fabrics require less energy than single-family dwellings. Therefore, high density should lead to low GHG emissions. During the last decade this association has been questioned because: a) there may be compensatory behaviors (more energy consumption and more GHG emissions in mobility and housing during weekends and holidays, and b) the fact of not considering the effects of the endogeneity associated with self-selection. In this paper, we analyze population density as a determinant of mobility and residential GHG emissions in Gran Concepción (Chile) using multivariate regression models. The results obtained indicate that density does not exert a significant impact on GHG emissions in mobility and housing. It is income differences that mostly explain individual GHG emissions variability. This calls into question the possible effectiveness of compactness policies in regional, cultural and climatic contexts different from those of the US and Europe and are excessively oriented towards the maintenance and increase of density in urban centers and slowing down the expansion of suburban neighborhoods.     

Analysing and mapping spatial and temporal dynamics of urban traffic noise pollution: a case study in Kahramanmaraş, Turkey

This study aimed at quantifying noise pollution from urban traffic in the city of Kahramanmara?, Turkey. A total of 114 measurements for the equivalent noise level (L _Aeq) were made at 38 urban locations classified as “residential areas”, “residential and commercial areas” and “industrial areas” according to the national regulations, during morning, mid-day and evening hours. Our findings tabulated and mapped revealed that mean noise level in “residential and commercial areas” was highest relative to the other land-use types. Minimum and maximum values of noise pollution were recorded during the mid-day and evening hours, regardless of the land-use types. Noise limit values were exceeded at two locations only out of 38 based on the national regulation criteria and at over half of the locations based on the international criteria.     

Availability of disaggregated greenhouse gas emissions from beef cattle production: A systematic review

Agriculture is a significant source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and beef cattle are particularly emissions intensive. GHG emissions are typically expressed as a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) ‘carbon footprint’ per unit output. The 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP₁₀₀) is the most commonly used CO₂e metric, but others have also been proposed, and there is no universal reason to prefer GWP₁₀₀ over alternative metrics. The weightings assigned to non-CO₂ GHGs can differ significantly depending on the metric used, and relying upon a single metric can obscure important differences in the climate impacts of different GHGs. This loss of detail is especially relevant to beef production systems, as the majority of GHG emissions (as conventionally reported) are in the form of methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O), rather than CO₂. This paper presents a systematic literature review of harmonised cradle to farm-gate beef carbon footprints from bottom-up studies on individual or representative systems, collecting the emissions data for each separate GHG, rather than a single CO₂e value. Disaggregated GHG emissions could not be obtained for the majority of studies, highlighting the loss of information resulting from the standard reporting of total GWP₁₀₀ CO₂e alone. Where individual GHG compositions were available, significant variation was found for all gases. A comparison of grass fed and non-grass fed beef production systems was used to illustrate dynamics that are not sufficiently captured through a single CO₂e footprint. Few clear trends emerged between the two dietary groups, but there was a non-significant indication that under GWP₁₀₀ non-grass fed systems generally appear more emissions efficient, but under an alternative metric, the 100-year global temperature potential (GTP₁₀₀), grass-fed beef had lower footprints. Despite recent focus on agricultural emissions, this review concludes there are insufficient data available to fully address important questions regarding the climate impacts of agricultural production, and calls for researchers to include separate GHG emissions in addition to aggregated CO₂e footprints.     

A dynamic analysis of the global warming potential associated with air conditioning at a city scale: an empirical study in Shenzhen,China

Heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are a major source of energy consumption in buildings, directly and indirectly contributing to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the urban environment, and depending on local climatic conditions, air conditioning units attribute to these high energy demands. This study analyzes the use of residential air conditioning units and their associated global warming potential (GWP) between 2005 and 2030 for the city of Shenzhen, a fast-growing megacity located in Southern China. A life cycle assessment approach was adopted to quantify the GWP impacts which arise from both direct (refrigerant release) and indirect (energy consumption) sources, in combination with a materials flow analysis approach. The results show that the total GWP (expressed as carbon dioxide equivalents, CO₂ eq.) from residential air conditioning systems increased from 2.2 ± 0.2 to 5.1 ± 0.4 million tonnes (Mt) CO₂ eq. between 2005 and 2017, with energy consumption and refrigerant release contributing to 72.5% and 27.5% of the total demands, respectively. Immediate measures are required to restrict refrigerant release and reduce the energy consumption of air conditioning units, to help mitigate the predicted additional total emissions of 36.4 Mt. CO₂ eq. potentially released between 2018 and 2030. This amount equals to approximately New Zealand's national CO₂ emissions in 2017. The findings proposed in this study targets air conditioning units to reduce the GWP emissions in cities, and provide useful data references and insights for local authorities to incentivise measures for improving building energy efficiency management and performance.     

Determining the ‘optimal’ level of pollution (PM2.5) generated by industrial and residential sources

This study provides an optimization model that explicitly determines the ‘optimal’ level of pollution of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) by analyzing various options for reducing emissions from industrial and residential sources in the second largest urban area in Chile. Several conclusions that had not been previously addressed or sufficiently highlighted in the literature were discerned. The most notable conclusions included the importance of regulating all emission sources and not just industrial sources (which are typically fewer in number and easier to monitor), the homogeneity in ‘optimal’ levels of pollution from urban districts when considering the long-term effects on human health (which would support the adoption of uniform regulations), and the asymmetry in confidence intervals associated to the ‘optimal’ level of pollution.     

Environmental impact of electricity relocation: A quasi-natural experiment from interregional electricity transmission

Pollutants such as sulfur would concentrate in the source regions and thus the localized impacts are more obvious. Local balance of electricity by transporting coal has resulted in dense concentration of coal-fired power plants in load centers and caused severe environmental problems. Electricity relocation through interregional transmission is another choice for energy transportation to achieve electricity balance across regions and pollution mitigation. Using interregional electricity transmission (IRET) lines in China as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper assesses the environmental impact of electricity relocation. In the assessment, the grid organization of “province as executor” in China is considered because it affects the sphere of IRET's influence on pollution mitigation. Here we show the environmental benefits of electricity relocation. We find that, electricity relocation through interregional transmission leads to the growth rate of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emission decreasing 7% in landing areas and Sichuan province benefits most from electricity relocation. It is interesting that there is no significant increase of SO₂ emission growth rate in sending areas compared to counterfactuals if there had no IRET due to more integration of clean energy and improved emission efficiency in sending areas. Placebo study and robustness check show that the results are quite convincing. Therefore, IRET provides an appealing choice for China's environmental control in eastern region, and it is not necessarily at the cost of pollution in western region. The methodology can be applied to assess the environmental impacts of other program or policy elsewhere.     

A General Equilibrium Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Swiss Winter Tourism with Adaptation

Winter alpine tourism has been repeatedly identified as one of the economic sectors most at risk from climate change in Switzerland. However, all of the costs that have been estimated so far for the Swiss tourism sector are, to some extent, misleading as they do not, or only partially, incorporate adaptation possibilities and general equilibrium effects. We attempt to fill this gap using a computable general equilibrium model that is specifically designed for the purposes of this research. Our modeling efforts first consist in creating a tourism sector with a part of it being dependent on snow. We also carefully model the snowmaking technology. Using climate change scenarios on future snow cover, we analyze their impacts on the Swiss ski industry. We find welfare effects for the Swiss economy ranging from − 23 to 113 million CHF in 2050. This range arises from the use of various assumptions concerning adaptation possibilities. We also show that geographical substitutions between international ski destinations have large positive effects for Switzerland. From a more general perspective, our results exemplify the risks of estimating the consequences of climate change based only on domestic impacts of climate change with no adaptation being implemented.