贝叶斯理论在室内空气质量等级识别中的应用

利用贝叶斯理论在不确定性的表示、推理方面的优势,结合多传感器数据融合技术,以新装修居室的空气为研究对象,构建基于贝叶斯理论的室内空气质量等级的数据融合模型,并借助JAVA语言实现基于贝叶斯理论的室内空气质量等级方法。实验证明该方法正确可行,其计算结果稳定准确。     

中短波广播发射台电磁辐射环境影响预测模型

为预测中短波广播发射台的电磁辐射环境影响,根据国家相关电磁辐射标准,研究和分析了中短波广播发射台电磁辐射环境影响理论预测模型,编辑了中短波发射台电磁辐射环境影响计算分析程序,验证发现实际监测符合理论预测.实例计算了中短波发射台周围的电磁辐射影响,表明程序的计算结果可用于指导中短波发射台周围的建设.     

物元分析法用于水环境质量的评价比较

对物元分析理论在水环境质量评价中的应用进行了探讨，叙述了方法的原理、模型及计算过程。运用物元分析法、多目标决策的优序法和密切值法对实例进行了评价比较。结果表明，物元分析法结构合理，计算简便适用，分辨率高，排序结果与实际环境质量状况较符合，方法是可行的。     

城市环境质量的灰色聚类分析

将灰色系统理论应用到城市环境质量评价中，建立了相应的隶属函数模型，经实例分析表明，该方法具有计算简便，分辨率高和已知信息利用率高等特点，所得评价结果更为客观，可靠。     

沙坝水库扩建对水环境容量的影响研究

在对沙坝水库水质现状评价的基础上,计算了水库扩建前后库内有机物、TN和TP水环境容量的变化情况,并对计算结果进行了分析,从而为有效控制水体污染、科学管理和利用水资源提供理论支撑。     

关于河流纳污混合水质概率稀释模型及其应用研究

本文以淮河干流上游息县和维滨两个城关纳污河段为例，根据扩散理论和概率学理论，尝试建立了河流纳污混合水质浓度概率稀释模型。并研究确定了概率稀释模型在河流污染控制中的应用方法和技术路线。与实测结果比较，概率稀释模型方法计算更具有准确性和科学合理性．对水质评价和规划河流污染治理方案具有重要指导意义，对实现淮河水质返清目标有积极贡献。     

现行pH值平均值计算方法的不足与改进

分析了pH均值的计算原理、现行计算方法的可行性与局限性,提出一组新的计算方程式,比较两种方法计算结果的差别,并给出新方程式求解的计算程序。     

英国CRTN道路交通噪声预测模型在中国的适用性研究

基于道路交通噪声990 h监测数据,对英国CRTN模型中源强计算模型在中国的适用性进行了验证。试验结果表明,理论计算与实测结果之间平均仅相差0.57 dB（A）,CRTN源强预测模型在中国可以可靠地预测道路交通噪声。     

加标回收率计算方法的探讨

阐述了加标回收率计算的理论公式的使用条件和不足，并推导出５种不同条件下适用的加标回收率计算方法的数学表达式。     

工厂噪声对厂外环境的影响预测方法及实例计算

本文论述了工厂的室内和室外声源的几种传播计算模式，指出了具体的计算方法和简化办法，并用具体实例进行了演算，还将计算结果与监测结果进行了比较，证明了所介绍的预测方法在实际运用中的可行性     

无人机监测在城市环境大气污染物扩散数值模拟中的应用

通过数值模拟手段,确定城市区域污染源对周边环境的影响程度和影响范围,确定污染源周边环境复杂程度对烟气扩散的影响程度。结果表明,数值模拟结果与无人机监测结果具有相同的变化规律,验证了数值模拟的合理性,可为项目选址、排污口设置、大气污染防治措施及相关工程设计等提供科学依据或指导性意见。     

基于WATER9模型的城镇污水处理中VOCs排放量研究

通过开展城镇污水处理模拟实验,与WATER9模拟结果比对和误差分析,使用优化后的WATER9模型模拟计算扬州汤汪污水处理厂一期工程的VOCs排放量,并分析各参数对VOCs排放量的影响.结果表明:WATER9模型满足城市污水处理厂污水处理过程中VOCs排放量的模拟要求,优化后的模拟值与实测值之间的相对偏差小于8％.实验结...     

兰州市气象要素对大气质量影响力的模拟分析

为了弄清气象要素对大气质量的影响以及大气污染反弹的原因,通过对兰州市冬春之际气象要素对大气质量影响力的模拟分析,建立了气象要素与大气质量间的模拟模型,并应用该模型对兰州市大气污染指数进行预测分析。结果表明,该模型计算精度高,预测结果真实可信,方法可行性好,可用来模拟分析兰州市冬春之际空气污染的成因和动态变化。     

不同模式版本对长三角区域大气污染物模拟结果对比评估

选取2015年1、4、7、10月(分别代表冬、春、夏、秋4季),应用CMAQv4.7.1和CMAQv5.1模式模拟长三角区域的空气质量,对比了NO2、SO2、O3、PM2.54个常规污染物的模拟结果,表明CMAQv5.1对NO2、SO2和PM2.5的模拟效果优于CMAQv4.7.1,而CMAQv4.7.1的O3模拟效果优于CMAQv5.1;CMAQv5.1的NO2模拟值更接近地面观测值,比起不同版本的化学机制对NO2模拟效果的影响,NO2的模拟偏差受排放高估的影响更大;2个版本SO2的模拟值差距较小,且都与地面观测值之间差异较小;CMAQv5.1 PM2.5的模拟值比CMAQv4.7.1更接近观测值,气溶胶模块机制的更新(例如新增细分的PM2.5模式物种和部分二次有机气溶胶生成机制的改进等)对PM2.5模拟效果的改善显著;CMAQv5.1的O3模拟值比CMAQv4.7.1高,CMAQv5.1的O3模拟值在O3观测值的高值时段更接近观测值,而CMAQv4.7.1的O3模拟值在低值时段更接近观测值,CMAQv5.1在日最大8小时平均(MDA8)O3观测浓度超标日的O3模拟效果相比CMAQv4.7.1有一定程度的改善,但在非超标日模拟效果变差,CMAQv5.1的O3模拟效果总体相比CMAQv4.7.1并未得到有效提升。提出,未来针对低值时段和低值区域的O3模拟机制的改进将进一步提升O3模拟效果。     

An object oriented modelling strategy to depict activity pattern of organisms in heterogeneous environments

The object oriented programming and simulation approach has been used at the Project Center for Ecosystems Research (Kiel) in order to advance ecological theory and in order to integrate empirical ecological field work. In this contribution we present a general scheme, which provides a framework for the development of individual based models. The scheme covers a general layout of the organism – environment interaction; the organization of (quasi‐)parallel activities of individuals (self‐scheduling of objects versus list processing); a concept to coordinate context specific activity alternatives. Basing on these considerations we give different application examples. These examples show the potential of individual based modelling to depict the modification of organismic activity pattern and population dynamics in heterogeneous environments and to study the interaction of different levels of aggregation. The model examples are simulation of a fish school in a changing environment; simulation of a robin population in a beech forest; simulation of plant development.     

Numerical Simulations of Wind Induced Particle Contamination in Gypsum Landfill Surroundings

The contribution presents numerical simulation of gypsum particles, lifting from a gypsum landfill. First, particle characteristics are presented, resulting from different technologies of gypsum depositing. Next, a laboratory experiment parameter validation tests are described, which served as a means of determination of mass flow of particles from the landfill. The background of the numerical simulations, used in the assessment of landfill impact on the environment, is also described. Simulations consist of two parts: simulation of a long term impact of the particles on the surrounding area, performed by implementation of the Gaussian dispersion model based computer code ISC3, and second, a CFD based simulation for assessing the flow and mass concentration fields in the vicinity of the landfill for several pre-selected flow cases. The results of both computational approaches are presented and compared. In the conclusions, a relation of the simulation results with existing environmental pollution levels is made, and recommendations for landfill management are drawn.     

垃圾填埋场室内模拟试验注水量确定方法及其应用

针对填埋场室内模拟试验往往忽略降雨径流和初损的问题,提出运用SCS模型确定室内模拟试验日注水量的方法,并将计算结果应用于成都长安填埋场室内模拟试验中.结果表明,采用SCS模型计算所得的日入渗量进行注水的模拟柱渗滤液产量和水质变化能够更准确的模拟填埋场实际情况.     

Role of Geographic Information System (GIS) in Watershed Simulation By Winvast Model

The uncertainty of modeling input will increase the simulation error, and this situation always happens in a model without user-friendly interface. WinVAST model, developed by the University of Virginia in 2003, treats an entire multi-catchment by a tree-view structure. Its extra computer programs can connect geographic information system (GIS). Model users can prepare all the necessary information in ArcGIS. Extracting information from GIS interface can not only decrease the inconvenience of data input, but also lower the uncertainty due to data preparation. The Daiyuku Creek and Qupoliao Creek in the Fei-tsui reservoir watershed in Northern Taiwan provided the setting for the case study reported herein. The required information, including slope, stream length, subbasin area, soil type and land-use condition, for WinVAST model should be prepared in a Microsoft Access database, which is the project file of WinVAST with extension mdb. In ArcGIS interface, when the soil layer, land-use layer, and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) map are prepared, all the watershed information can be created as well. This study compared the simulation results from automatically generated input and manual input. The results show that the relative simulation error resulting from the rough process of data input can be around 30% in runoff simulation, and even reach 70% in non-point source pollution (NPSP) simulation. It could conclude that GIS technology is significant for predicting watershed responses by WinVAST model, because it can efficiently reduce the uncertainty induced by input errors.     

Upstream flood pattern recognition based on downstream events

Reverse stream flood routing determines the upstream hydrograph in a stream reach given the downstream hydrograph. The Muskingum model of flood routing involves parameters that govern the routed hydrograph. These parameters are herein estimated using simulation methods coupled with optimization tools to achieve optimized parameters. Different simulation methods are shown to perform unequally in the estimation of nonlinear Muskingum parameters. This paper presents two simulation methods for nonlinear Muskingum reverse flood routing: (1) Euler equations and (2) Runge-Kutta 4th order equations. Moreover, the generalized reduced gradient (GRG) is used as the optimization tool that minimized the sum of the squared deviations (SSQ) between observed and routed inflows in a benchmark flood routing problem. Results show the Runge-Kutta 4th order equations yield better routed hydrographs with smaller SSQ than obtained in previous research and with the first simulation method (Euler equations).     

Performance Evaluation of the SLEUTH Model in the Shenyang Metropolitan Area of Northeastern China

Performance evaluation is crucial for the development and improvement of an urban cellular automata model, such as SLEUTH. In this paper, we employed multiple methods for map comparison and model validation to evaluate the simulation performance of the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Shenyang metropolitan area of China. These multiple methods included the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve statistic, multiple-resolutions error budget, and landscape metrics. They were used to quantitatively examine model performance in terms of the amount and spatial location of urban development, urban spatial pattern and prediction ability. The assessment results showed that SLEUTH performed well in the way of the quantitative simulation of urban growth for this case study. Similar to other urban growth models, however, the simulation accuracy for spatial location of new development at the pixel scale and urban spatial pattern still needs to be improved greatly. These inaccuracies might be attributed to the structure and nature of SLEUTH, local urban development characteristics, and the temporal and spatial scale of its application. Finally, many valuable suggestions had been put forward to improve simulation performance of SLEUTH model for spatial location of urban development in the Shenyang metropolitan area.