水环境质量综合评价的新模型

为检验已订的水环境质量评价标准的合理性,解决各单项水质指标的评估结果的不相容性问题,提高水质等级模型的分辨率,提出了一种新的水质评价模型-逻辑斯谛曲线(LOG)模型,它的水质等级是连续的实数值;根据LOG模型的参数值可以分析各水质指标值对水质等级的影响程度,从而检验原订水质等级标准的合理性;并给出了基于实码遗传算法的LOG建模的实施方案.实例研究说明,这套方案是实用的和通用的,在其它环境质量综合评价中也具有广泛的应用价值.     

张家界国家森林公园地表水污染综合分析

随着旅游业的快速发展,张家界国家森林公园水环境保护、水污染治理及水资源利用问题已成为张家界旅游可持续发展中突出的问题.文章利用大量监测数据,对公园地表水污染状况进行模糊数学法综合评价,进行污染特征与污染规律分析,从而提出严格控制排污,科学规划水资源、严格控制景区客流量等对策及建议,以期为张家界国家森林公园水环境保护及张家界旅游业的持续健康发展提供决策参考.     

赛里木湖旅游开发与生态环境保护

近年来,随着旅游业的快速发展,赛里木湖旅游开发活动产生的生态环境问题越来越突出.本文对赛里木湖旅游资源开发过程中引发的环境问题进行分析和探讨,针对目前赛里木湖自然资源破坏严重的现状,提出了合理的开发利用和保护对策.     

富营养化与温度因素对太湖藻类生长的影响研究

为了研究气候变暖和富营养化对湖泊水生态系统的影响,应用阿列纽斯方程修正的Monod生长模型定量研究长期以来太湖藻类生物量与营养元素和温度的关系.研究表明,在近年来的富营养化状况下,年均气温每增加1.0℃,年均藻类生物量增加0.145倍.湖泊富营养化越严重.年平均气温对藻类生长的影响就越大,由此可以定量评估和预测年均气温...     

天水市旅游业可持续发展与生态环境保护

本文旨在阐述天水市旅游业可持续发展如何和环境保护有机的结合,在追求旅游经济效益的同时,如何做好旅游景点的环境以及整个城市的生态环境保护。     

河流水质变化趋势的灰色多变量予测模型

关于水体水质预测,目前尚处于发展形成阶段.其方法大体可分为相关法与模型法两类[1].相关法是指将水质参数与影响该水质参数的主要因素建立相关关系,由此作为预测依据.模型法是选用合适的水质模型进行水质预测.一般而言,由于相关法是基于概率统计原理,这就要求有较大的样本量,而模型法则需较深入地研究扩散、降解特性,以求得方程中的有关参数.相比之下,灰色预测方法在此     

污染源自动监测异常数据识别规则及处理方法探索

基于大量污染源自动监测数据的特征分析与异常原因解析,探索建立针对自动监测异常数据的识别规则与标志处理方法,并通过模型训练实现了异常数据的自动标志.经实例验证,该方法可识别异常偏高、异常偏低、异常为0、迟滞不变、逻辑错误等5种类型的异常数据,按照数据有效性及异常原因进行标志处理,可以为后续数据分析及各类模型训练提供数据基...     

污染物在土壤中运移模型的研究进展

土壤中污染物运移的研究直接影响到环境科学的进展,常采用建立数学模型的方法预测污染物在土壤中的运移.文章系统地回顾了20多年来污染物在土壤中运移的数学模型研究进展,并根据模型的功能分为几何模型、对流-弥散传输模型(CDE)、随机模型三类.同时,对各类模型的特点、适用条件和存在问题进行比较分析,为有效地预测和控制污染物在土壤中的运移提供理论依据.     

有机污染物环境逸度模型构建及软件化

目前研究人员已经可以通过建立模型来评估有机物的环境风险并研究其在多介质环境中的迁移与转化。针对多介质逸度模型中的参数繁多,不利于研究人员模拟有机污染物的归趋状况的问题,现基于Ⅲ级多介质环境逸度模型,采用Python编程语言进行软件设计,完成有机物在环境各介质中的分布模拟功能,并在此基础上集成参数灵敏度和模型不确定度分析功能,且对用户提供了友好的图形界面。以北京地区地表水环境中的药物和个人护理品（PPCPs）为例,研究结果表明该软件得到的模拟值与实测值有较好的吻合度,可为有机物的区域环境污染和风险评估提供参考。     

湖泊富营养化机理模型研究进展

湖泊富营养化机理模型是模拟和预测水质参数变化趋势和水体富营养化状态的有效工具,可为水环境污染预防和治理提供数据支撑与科学依据。在回顾湖泊富营养化机理模型分类及发展的基础上,重点分析和总结了CAEDYM模型、PCLake模型、AQUATOX模型和WASP模型等生态动力学模型研究热点,探讨了各个模型的适用性与局限性;并进一步从湖泊富营养化影响机制探究和水质水环境管理保护决策服务两方面梳理了富营养化模型的应用现状,指出了富营养化机理模型当前存在的问题与发展方向,旨在为模型研究和应用提供参考。     

新疆盐湖旅游资源的开发利用

探讨了新疆盐湖资源的利用现状,提出多元化开发盐湖资源的思想,分3个方向利用资源,特别是要大力开发旅游资源。对湖泊旅游的开发模式及未来发展方向进行了总结,并结合新疆目前第一个盐湖旅游资源开发项目——乌鲁木齐达坂城东盐湖生态旅游的开发,分析了新疆盐湖旅游资源开发的优势和劣势,最终提出了盐湖的旅游资源开发模式和4种发展方向。     

Oceanographic Studies off Beypore Port, West Coast of India to Locate a Dredge Dumping Site

This study presents the salient results of the oceanographic investigations carried out along the west coast of India to locate a dumping site for the dredged material generated from the capital of the proposed development of the all weather port. Based on the results of movement of disposed material obtained from a 2 dimensional coastal circulation model and considering the possibility of having a navigational channel later on in line with the port, a dumping site is recommended at the 15 m water depth contour with coordinates: Latitude 11 degrees 07.00'; Longitude 75 degrees 45.60', where the environmental impacts on the ecosystem due to dumping operations is considered to be minimum.     

“省公顷”下渭河干流甘肃段生态安全评价及预测

摸清流域生态需求和生态供给是流域生态治理和促进其高质量发展的基础。文中应用改进生态足迹法对2009—2018年渭河干流甘肃段生态足迹和生态承载力进行核算,并运用GM（1,1）模型对流域未来的生态供需趋势进行预测。结果显示,2009—2018年渭河干流甘肃段生态足迹和生态承载力呈波动下降趋势,生态足迹下降2.26%,下降趋势低于生态承载力的4.18%;生态赤字以每年0.58%的速率波动减小。如果继续当前的发展模式,那么预计到2028年,生态赤字较2018年降低16.27%,流域生态安全状况将得到缓解。     

Using a neural network approach and time series data from an international monitoring station in the Yellow Sea for modeling marine ecosystems

The international marine ecological safety monitoring demonstration station in the Yellow Sea was developed as a collaborative project between China and Russia. It is a nonprofit technical workstation designed as a facility for marine scientific research for public welfare. By undertaking long-term monitoring of the marine environment and automatic data collection, this station will provide valuable information for marine ecological protection and disaster prevention and reduction. The results of some initial research by scientists at the research station into predictive modeling of marine ecological environments and early warning are described in this paper. Marine ecological processes are influenced by many factors including hydrological and meteorological conditions, biological factors, and human activities. Consequently, it is very difficult to incorporate all these influences and their interactions in a deterministic or analysis model. A prediction model integrating a time series prediction approach with neural network nonlinear modeling is proposed for marine ecological parameters. The model explores the natural fluctuations in marine ecological parameters by learning from the latest observed data automatically, and then predicting future values of the parameter. The model is updated in a “rolling” fashion with new observed data from the monitoring station. Prediction experiments results showed that the neural network prediction model based on time series data is effective for marine ecological prediction and can be used for the development of early warning systems.     

银厂沟风景区旅游环境质量评价

为正确评估风景区的旅游资源，确定其深度开发的意义，保持生态环境、从旅游环境容量、旅游区级别、旅游资源的综合价值3方面对银厂沟风景区的旅游环境质量进行了评价。结果表明，银厂沟风景区属于省级旅游地，具有一定的潜在开发意义。指出，在旅游高峰期，该风景区的环境容量超标，产生了游客食宿不便、景区观赏点不足、设施损坏、环境负荷加重等问题，应引起旅游管理部门的重视。     

Between economics and ecology: some historical and philosophical considerations for modelers of natural capital

Natural capital models attempt to remediate the relationship between economics and ecology either by conjoining models and theories from each discipline or by finding a type of phenomena that can be meaningfully measured by both fields. The developmentof a widely accepted model which integrates economics and ecologyhas eluded researchers since the early 1970s. This paper offers an historical and philosophical perspective on some of the conceptual problems or obstacles that hinder the development ofnatural capital models. In particular, the disciplinary assumptions of economic science and ecological science are examined and it is argued that these assumptions are antithetical. Hence, the development of an effective and acceptednatural capital model will require that economics and ecology reconsider their self-conceptions as sciences. For the purposesof theoretical research and practical policy, the paper cautionsagainst confusing the issue of whether or not economic models accord with ecological models with the issue of whether or not economic activities accord with ecological realities.     

基于耦合模型的安徽经济与环境协调发展分析

构建了经济发展与生态环境评价指标体系，选用耦合协调度模型计算2010—2019年安徽省不同区域经济发展与生态环境的耦合协调度，并采用灰色关联度法计算评价指标与耦合协调度的关联系数。研究结果表明：全省经济发展与生态环境的耦合协调度整体呈改善趋势，耦合协调度集中分布在0.393~0.765，基本处于良好协调或低水平协调阶段。全省不同区域的生态环境指数均大于经济发展指数。省会城市、沿江江南地区耦合协调度高于江淮之间和淮河以北地区。工业"三废"排放量、环境质量、环境污染治理力度是影响经济发展与生态环境耦合协调度的重要因素，建议通过改善这些方面进一步提升经济与环境的耦合协调度水平。     

Exploration of sustainable development by applying green economy indicators

Following the global trend of sustainable development, development of green economy is the best way of slowing the negative ecological and environmental impact. This research establishes the Taiwan's green economic indicators based on the ecological footprint and energy analysis. The results are as follows: Taiwan's ecological footprint in 2008 intensity index was at 4.364; ecological overshoot index was at 3.364, showing that Taiwan's ecological system is in overload state. Moreover, this study utilizes energy analysis model to study the sustainable development of Taiwan. Findings showed that total energy use in 2008 was 3.14 × 10(23)?sej (solar energy joule, sej), energy of renewable resources was 1.30 × 10(22)?sej, energy of nonrenewable resources was 2.26 × 10(23)?sej, energy of products from renewable resources was 1.30 × 10(22)sej, energy of currency flow was 8.02 × 10(22)?sej and energy of wastes flow was 6.55 × 10(22)?sej. Taiwan's energy per capita and the utilization rate of energy is lower while the environmental loading rate is significantly higher comparing to some other countries. The foregoing findings indicate that Taiwan currently belongs to an economic development pattern based on high resource consumption. The economic development is mainly established on the exploitation and utilization of nonrenewable resources. Therefore, Taiwan should change the development pattern, regulate the industrial structure, promote the utilization rate of resources, develop green pollution-free products, and enhance the sustainable development of ecological economic system.     

目标考核视角下的城市生态文明建设综合评价

在阐述生态文明建设内涵的基础上,从资源利用、经济发展、国土空间布局、生态环境保护和社会进步5个方面选取30项指标,运用综合指数法开展深圳市生态文明建设评价,并借助灰色系统模型GM(1,1)预测其发展趋势。研究表明,深圳市生态文明建设成果逐步凸显,除国土空间布局对生态文明建设贡献呈下降趋势外,其余4个方面对其贡献均逐步提高;地方政府生态文明建设考核压力逐步趋缓。预测显示深圳市生态文明建设得分持续小幅度增加,生态文明建设得到持续加强。当前生态文明建设重点在于优化国土空间布局,需要加强耕地保护、调整土地利用结构和控制人口密度。     

安宁河流域土地生态安全动态评价与预测

基于GIS空间分析技术结合CA Markov预测模型,对安宁河流域2000—2018年的土地生态安全进行动态评价及预测。结果表明：安宁河流域土地生态安全指数由北向南递增,垂直差异显著;研究期内预警和风险总占比由27.72%下降至23.84%,良好和安全面积总占比由46.11%上升至51.49%;2000—2018年安宁河流域土地生态安全综合指数呈上升趋势,土地生态发展态势良好;预测结果显示,流域土地生态安全状况将持续好转。安宁河流域土地生态安全虽然总体水平有较大提高,但仍须加强对生态环境的治理力度,推进土地生态安全的可持续发展。