Water Quality Prediction of Water Sources Based on Meteorological Factors using the CA-NARX Approach

With the increasingly serious problem of surface water environmental safety, it is of great significance to study the changing trend of reservoir water quality, and it is necessary to establish a water quality prediction and early warning system for the management and maintenance of water resources. Aiming at the problem of water quality prediction in reservoirs, a CA-NARX algorithm is designed, which combines the improved dynamic clustering algorithm with the idea of machine learning and the forward dynamic regression neural network. The improved dynamic clustering algorithm is used to classify the eutrophication degree of waterbodies according to the total phosphorus and total nitrogen content. Considering four meteorological factors, air temperature, water temperature, water surface evaporation, and rainfall, synthetically for each water quality condition, the total phosphorus and total nitrogen in the waterbody are forecasted by an improved forward NARX dynamic regression neural network. Based on this, the CA-NARX prediction algorithm can realize short period water quality prediction. Compared with the traditional support vector regression machine model, improved GA-BP neural network, and exponential smoothing method, the CA-NARX model has the least prediction error.

     

Modelling geosmin concentrations in three sources of raw water in Quebec, Canada

The presence of off-flavour compounds such as geosmin, often found in raw water, significantly reduces the organoleptic quality of distributed water and diverts the consumer from its use. To adapt water treatment processes to eliminate these compounds, it is necessary to be able to identify them quickly. Routine analysis could be considered a solution, but it is expensive and delays associated with obtaining the results of analysis are often important, thereby constituting a serious disadvantage. The development of decision-making tools such as predictive models seems to be an economic and feasible solution to counterbalance the limitations of analytical methods. Among these tools, multi-linear regression and principal component regression are easy to implement. However, due to certain disadvantages inherent in these methods (multicollinearity or non-linearity of the processes), the use of emergent models involving artificial neurons networks such as multi-layer perceptron could prove to be an interesting alternative. In a previous paper (Parinet et al., Water Res 44: 5847-5856, 2010), the possible parameters that affect the variability of taste and odour compounds were investigated using principal component analysis. In the present study, we expand the research by comparing the performance of three tools using different modelling scenarios (multi-linear regression, principal component regression and multi-layer perceptron) to model geosmin in drinking water sources using 38 microbiological and physicochemical parameters. Three very different sources of water, in terms of quality, were selected for the study. These sources supply drinking water to the Québec City area (Canada) and its vicinity, and were monitored three times per month over a 1-year period. Seven different modelling methods were tested for predicting geosmin in these sources. The comparison of the seven different models showed that simple models based on multi-linear regression provide sufficient predictive capacity with performance levels comparable to those obtained with artificial neural networks. The multi-linear regression model (R ²?=?0.657, <0.001) used only four variables (phaeophytin, sum of green algae, chlorophyll-a and potential Redox) in comparison with ten variables (potassium, heterotrophic bacteria, organic nitrogen, total nitrogen, phaeophytin, total organic carbon, sum of green algae, potential Redox, UV absorbance at 254 nm and atypical bacteria) for the best model obtained with artificial neural networks (R ²?=?0.843).     

Using multivariate techniques as a strategy to guide optimization projects for the surface water quality network monitoring in the Velhas river basin,Brazil

Surface water quality monitoring networks are usually deployed and rarely re-evaluated with regard to their effectiveness. In this sense, this work sought to evaluate and to guide optimization projects for the water quality monitoring network of the Velhas river basin, using multivariate statistical methods. The cluster, principal components, and factorial analyses, associated with non-parametric tests and the analysis of violation to the standards set recommended by legislation, identified the most relevant water quality parameters and monitoring sites, and evaluated the sampling frequency. Thermotolerant coliforms, total arsenic, and total phosphorus were considered the most relevant parameters for characterization of water quality in the river basin. The monitoring sites BV156, BV141, BV142, BV150, BV137, and BV153 were considered priorities for maintenance of the network. The multivariate statistical analysis showed the importance of a monthly sampling frequency, specifically the parameters considered most important.     

Assessment of chlorophyll-a variations in high- and low-flow seasons in Apalachicola Bay by MODIS 250-m remote sensing

Chlorophyll-a (chl-a) is considered as a primary indicator for water quality and foods for oyster growth in Apalachicola estuarine ecosystem. Assessment of chl-a concentration variation in response to river inflow is important for estuarine environmental research and management. In this study, remote sensing analysis has been conducted to evaluate the effects of river inflow on chlorophyll concentrations in Apalachicola Bay of Florida in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. A remote sensing model for chl-a was improved and applied to map spatial distributions of chl-a by using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250-m resolution imageries in high-flow and low-flow seasons in 2001 and 2008. Chl-a values approximately ranged from the minimum 6 μg/l to the maximum 29 μg/l in the study period. Maximum chl-a concentration in high-flow season was almost twice above that in low-flow season. The averaged mean and minimum chl-a level in the high-flow season were approximately 42 and 28 % higher than those in low-flow season, respectively. The remote sensing mapping of chl-a was able to show spatial variations of chl-a in the entire bay under different flow conditions, which indicated its advantage over the traditional field data sampling for monitoring water quality over a large area of estuary. The MODIS 250-m remote sensing regression model presented from this study can be used to support monitoring and assessment of the spatial chl-a distribution in the bay for environmental research and management in Apalachicola Bay.     

Assessment of surface water quality using multivariate statistical techniques in red soil hilly region: a case study of Xiangjiang watershed, China

In the study, multivariate statistical methods including factor, principal component and cluster analysis were applied to analyze surface water quality data sets obtained from Xiangjiang watershed, and generated during 7 years (1994-2000) monitoring of 12 parameters at 34 different profiles. Hierarchical cluster analysis grouped 34 sampling sites into three clusters, including relatively less polluted (LP), medium polluted (MP) and highly polluted (HP) sites, and based on the similarity of water quality characteristics, the watershed was divided into three zones. Factor analysis/principal component analysis, applied to analyze the data sets of the three different groups obtained from cluster analysis, resulted in four latent factors accounting for 71.62%, 71.77% and 72.01% of the total variance in water quality data sets of LP, MP and HP areas, respectively. The PCs obtained from factor analysis indicate that the parameters for water quality variations are mainly related to dissolve heavy metals. Thus, these methods are believed to be valuable to help water resources managers understand complex nature of water quality issues and determine the priorities to improve water quality.     

Artificial neural network modeling of dissolved oxygen in reservoir

The water quality of reservoirs is one of the key factors in the operation and water quality management of reservoirs. Dissolved oxygen (DO) in water column is essential for microorganisms and a significant indicator of the state of aquatic ecosystems. In this study, two artificial neural network (ANN) models including back propagation neural network (BPNN) and adaptive neural-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) approaches and multilinear regression (MLR) model were developed to estimate the DO concentration in the Feitsui Reservoir of northern Taiwan. The input variables of the neural network are determined as water temperature, pH, conductivity, turbidity, suspended solids, total hardness, total alkalinity, and ammonium nitrogen. The performance of the ANN models and MLR model was assessed through the mean absolute error, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient computed from the measured and model-simulated DO values. The results reveal that ANN estimation performances were superior to those of MLR. Comparing to the BPNN and ANFIS models through the performance criteria, the ANFIS model is better than the BPNN model for predicting the DO values. Study results show that the neural network particularly using ANFIS model is able to predict the DO concentrations with reasonable accuracy, suggesting that the neural network is a valuable tool for reservoir management in Taiwan.     

Using GA-Ridge regression to select hydro-geological parameters influencing groundwater pollution vulnerability

For groundwater conservation and management, it is important to accurately assess groundwater pollution vulnerability. This study proposed an integrated model using ridge regression and a genetic algorithm (GA) to effectively select the major hydro-geological parameters influencing groundwater pollution vulnerability in an aquifer. The GA-Ridge regression method determined that depth to water, net recharge, topography, and the impact of vadose zone media were the hydro-geological parameters that influenced trichloroethene pollution vulnerability in a Korean aquifer. When using these selected hydro-geological parameters, the accuracy was improved for various statistical nonlinear and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, such as multinomial logistic regression, decision trees, artificial neural networks, and case-based reasoning. These results provide a proof of concept that the GA-Ridge regression is effective at determining influential hydro-geological parameters for the pollution vulnerability of an aquifer, and in turn, improves the AI performance in assessing groundwater pollution vulnerability.     

Formation and modeling of disinfection by-products in drinking water of six cities in China

Water quality parameters including TOC, UV(254), pH, chlorine dosage, bromide concentration and disinfection by-products were measured in water samples from 41 water treatment plants of six selected cities in China. Chloroform, bromodichloromethane, dibromochloromethane, dichloroacetic acid and trichloroacetic acid were the major disinfection by-products in the drinking water of China. Bromoform and dibromoacetic acid were also detected in many water samples. Higher concentrations of trihalomethanes and haloacetic acids were measured in summer compared to winter. The geographical variations in DBPs showed that TTHM levels were higher in Zhengzhou and Tianjin than other selected cities. And the HAA5 levels were highest in Changsha and Tianjin. The modeling procedure that predicts disinfection by-products formation was studied and developed using artificial neural networks. The performance of the artificial neural networks model was excellent (r > 0.84).     

Water quality of a tributary of the Pearl River, the Beijiang, Southern China: implications from multivariate statistical analyses

Water quality information of Beijiang River, a tributary of Pearl River in Guangdong, China, was analyzed to provide an overview of the hydrochemical functioning of a major agricultural/rural area and an industrial/urban area. Eighteen water quality parameters were surveyed at 13 sites from 2005 to 2006 on a monthly basis. A bivariate correlation analysis was carried out to evaluate the regional correlations of the water quality parameters, while the principal component analysis (PCA) technique was used to extract the most influential variables for regional variations of river water quality. Six principal components were extracted in PCA which explained more than 78% and 84% of the total variance for agricultural/rural and industrial/urban areas, respectively. Physicochemical factor, organic pollution, sewage pollution, geogenic factor, agricultural nonpoint source pollution, and accumulated pesticide usage were identified as potential pollution sources for agricultural/rural area, whereas industrial wastewaters pollution, mineral pollution, geogenic factor, urban sewage pollution, chemical industrial pollution, and water traffic pollution were the latent pollution sources for industrial/urban area. A multivariate linear regression of absolute principal component scores (MLR-APCS) technique was used to estimate contributions of all identified pollution sources to each water quality parameter. High coefficients of determination of the regression equations suggested that the MLR-APCS model was applicable for estimation of sources of most water quality parameters in the Beijiang River Basin.     

The use of multivariate statistical methods for optimization of the surface water quality network monitoring in the Paraopeba river basin,Brazil

This study sought to evaluate and propose adjustments to the water quality monitoring network of surface freshwaters in the Paraopeba river basin (Minas Gerais, Brazil), using multivariate statistical methods. A total of 13,560 valid data were analyzed for 19 water quality parameters at 30 monitoring sites, over a period of 5 years (2008–2013). The cluster analysis grouped the monitoring sites in eight groups based on similarities of water quality characteristics. This analysis made it possible to detect the most relevant monitoring stations in the river basin. The principal components analysis associated with non-parametric tests and the analysis of violation of the standards prescribed by law, allowed for identifying the most relevant parameters which must be maintained in the network (thermotolerant coliforms, total manganese, and total phosphorus). The discharge of domestic sewage and industrial wastewater, that from mining activities and diffuse pollution from agriculture and pasture areas are the main sources of pollution responsible for the surface water quality deterioration in this basin. The BP073 monitoring site presents the most degraded water quality in the Paropeba river basin. The monitoring sites BP094 and BP092 are located geographically close and they measure similar water quality, so a possible assessment of the need to maintain only one of the two in the monitoring network is suggested. Therefore, multivariate analyses were efficient to assess the adequacy of the water quality monitoring network of the Paraopeba river basin, and it can be used in other watersheds.