用于环境风险评价的大连湾溢油预测模型

基于POM建立了M2分潮的大连湾海域三维潮流场动力模式。利用此动力模式,以"油粒子"模型来模拟溢油在大连湾中的漂移扩散过程。通过欧拉-拉格朗日法,将油膜中心的轨迹和各个时刻的油膜分布情况可视化。溢油预测模型综合考虑了三维流场、湍流、风导输移和波浪破等环境因素对海上溢油行为的影响,考虑了蒸发和乳化过程,预测了溢油的归宿。本模型旨在为大连湾海上溢油风险评价提供信息。     

射阳港区规划对盐城自然保护区的生态影响研究

结合工程特点、港区规划范围自然保护区生态环境现状,识别和分析射阳港区规划实施后对盐城自然保护区的生态影响。结果表明,底栖生物丧失,浮游生物和鱼类减少,船舶溢油事故及建设和运营期三废的排放导致海域生态环境质量下降;溢油使鸟类生境遭到破坏,保护区结构和功能受阻等。提出相应的环保措施,最大限度减轻规划实施后对自然保护区的影响。     

化工开发区突发性大气污染事故预测预警系统建设架构

大气污染事故预测预警系统主要包括污染气象模型和大气扩散数学模型,利用地理信息系统(GIS)技术,按照污染事故发生的地理位置,将模型的数值解和GIS相结合,从而可以在时间和空间上对污染扩散进行分析,得到不同地点的污染物浓度和污染程度,获取受污染范围内的人口和周边单位等重要信息,从而预测污染事故对环境的影响程度和范围,为突发性环境污染事故的应急监测、现场救护和灾后评估提供科学依据。     

基于SDSS的水环境决策系统技术研究

空间决策支持系统(SDSS)作为地理信息系统与决策支持系统的结合体,兼有两者优点。文章将空间决策支持技术引入水环境计算中,讨论如何将水环境预测模型、决策分析方法与空间分析技术进行有机的结合,分析水环境空间决策模型的结构和建立过程,并结合应用实例——突发性水污染事故应急系统为例,阐明了其应用模型的特点,最后给出了相应的建设性结果。     

江苏响水爆炸事件环境应急监测工作几点思考

2019年3月21日,盐城市响水县陈家港化工园区的江苏天嘉宜化工有限公司发生爆炸事故,江苏省环境监测力量于事故发生后第一时间奔赴现场开展应急监测。通过收集和整理事故发生后环境应急监测工作的详细开展过程、事故现场污染物浓度变化数据,评估了事故应急处置期间污染物对周边环境的影响情况;通过对应急监测的工作措施进行简要分析,总结了应急监测工作在突发性环境污染事件中的作用与影响;指出该事故中监测机构应急监测技术能力的瓶颈和不足,并从根本上为提高应急监测能力提出建议。     

环境应急监测最短路径分析系统的开发与实现

阐述了开发环境应急监测最短路径分析系统的目的.在ArcGIS Server的体系结构和开发方式基础上,利用城市道路交通网络模型,对.NET环境下GIS服务端进行扩展开发,实现了对环境应急监测中最短路径分析的功能,并通过南通市网络化环境污染事故区域预警系统的应用介绍了实现过程.     

基于信号改进深度学习网络的京津冀城市群二氧化氮浓度预测

在中国华北地区,二氧化氮污染仍旧不容忽视,尤其是在机动车辆密集和工业生产相对集中的京津冀城市群。运用小波分解(WD)和长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络建立了W-LSTM组合模型,用于预测未来京津冀地区二氧化氮日均浓度和分指数。使用2014年1月—2018年5月主要大气污染物数据对组合预测模型进行训练试验,在获得最优模型参数后,使用2018年6月—2019年6月数据进行模型预测性能测试试验。结果表明,相较于传统的LSTM预测模型,W-LSTM组合预测模型具有更好的预测性能,预测结果的平均绝对百分误差为9.21%。在此基础上,使用最优预测模型对京津冀城市群2019年7月—2020年12月二氧化氮日均浓度进行了预测,并描绘了时空分布图用以表征其时空变化特征。     

辐射事故应急预案的模糊综合评价

为增强辐射事故应急预案编制及修订的科学性、针对性和实用性,依据辐射事故应急预案的特点和法律法规要求,基于层次分析法构建目标层、准则层和方案层三级层次结构,提出9项准则和39项评价指标并计算权重,建立辐射事故应急预案综合评价模型及计算方法。层次分析结果表明,监测和预警、应急监测、恢复行动等3项指标在应急预案制修订过程中权重较大。应用该方法对某辐射事故应急预案实例进行评价,评价结果为一般,与实际情况相符。     

浅谈环境风险防范现场检查与验收

简述了环境风险防范现场检查与验收的主要内容,对在环境影响评价及批复、环境监理、事故应急水池、报警和监控设备、环境与安全风险之间的关系、竣工环境保护验收技术规范等方面存在的问题进行了分析,提出了相应建议。     

北京市城市道路交通噪声的灰色预测

以北京市1991~2002年城市道路交通噪声监测数据为基础,运用灰色系统理论,建立了灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,并采用残差、均方差比值、小误差概率检验等3种办法对所建模型的拟合精度进行了检验.结果表明,此模型精度为一级灰色预测模型.预测精度较高,平均拟合偏差为0.40%.对2003~2005年噪声的预测精度平均高达99.9%.利用常规GM(1,1)模型、新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型和多维灰数递补GM(1,1)模型等三种预测模型对本市未来3年(2006~2008年)的城市道路交通噪声进行了预测.     

Performance evaluation of oil spill software systems in early fate and trajectory of oil spill: comparison analysis of OILMAP and PISCES 2 in Mersin bay spill

The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance level of two advanced oil spill software systems in early transport and fate of oil spill through algorithms accepted in oil spill literature. To do this, the performance level of software systems mostly used in real cases have been compared. OILMAP (the oil spill prediction modeling system) and PISCES 2 (potential incident simulation, control and evaluation system) have been used for spill trajectory in the light of four spill scenarios. The findings reveal that the OILMAP has predicted a relatively larger area of spill. In addition, OILMAP has achieved closer results to the calculations of approaches adopted in the literature for evaporation calculations. Besides, OILMAP software has provided highly reliable results in the evaporation rates of oil compared to the calculations of PISCES 2. On the other hand, as for the determination of the risky area, both software systems have yielded results with high reliability values, which could be used in taking precautions against oil spill in such areas.     

Direct and Adjoint Oil Spill Estimates

Propagation of the oil spilling from a damaged oil tanker is considered in a limited sea area. The accident consequences are evaluated by means of direct and adjoint oil concentration estimates in ecologically sensitive zones. While the direct estimates are preferable to get a comprehensive idea of the oil spill impact on the whole area, the adjoint ones are useful and economical in studying the sensitivity of the oil concentration in some zones to variations in the accident site and oil spill rate from the tanker. Thanks to special boundary conditions set at the inflow and outflow parts of the open boundary, the main and adjoint oil transport problems are both well-posed according to Hadamard (1923). The estimates obtained in Skiba (1996a) are generalized to the three dimensions. Balanced, absolutely stable 2nd-order finite-difference schemes based on the splitting method are constructed for the two- and three-dimensional cases, both. The main and adjoint schemes are compatible in the sense that at every fractional step of the splitting algorithm, the one-dimensional split operators of both the schemes satisfy a discrete form of the Lagrange identity (Marchuk, 1995). In the special unforced and non-dissipative case, the schemes have two conservation laws each. Each split problem is solved by the factorization method.     

Dual oil concentration estimates in ecologically sensitive zones

Propagation of the oil spilling from a damaged oil tanker is considered in a limited sea area. Direct and adjoint estimates of the average oil concentration in special zones are derived by using solutions of the 2-D main and adjoint oil transport problems, respectively. The dual estimates complement each other nicely in studying the oil spill consequences. While the direct estimates are preferable to get a comprehensive idea of the oil spill impact on the whole area, the adjoint ones are specially useful and economical when the accident site-dependence or/and the oil spill rate-dependence of the oil concentration is/are studied only in a few ecologically sensitive zones. Indeed, each adjoint estimate explicitly relates the average oil concentration in a zone to the oil spill rate using the adjoint solution values at the accident site. Being independent of the two parameters (the accident site and oil spill rate), the adjoint solution can be found for each zone regardless of a concrete accident and used repeatedly for various possible values of these parameters. Several examples explain how to decide between two estimates.Thanks to special boundary conditions, the main and adjoint problems are both well-posed according to Hadamard (1923). The dual estimates can be generalized to the three dimensions. The balanced, absolutely stable and compatibie main and adjoint 3-D numerical algorithms by Skiba (1993) can easily be adapted to the problem discussed here.     

Simulation of impact of oil spill in the ocean – a case study of Arabian Gulf

To meet the growing energy demand worldwide, oil and gas exploration and production activities have increased rapidly both in onshore and offshore areas. The produced oil from the ocean bed is transported onshore either by ship or pipeline. This has increased the risk of oil spill in the coastal area. In order to prepare an emergency preparedness plan and to assess the magnitude of risk involved in transporting and offloading oil, oil spill simulation studies play an important role. This paper describes a simulation of oil spill in coastal bay of Arabian Gulf where new developments are taking place using MIKE 21 model. The developments include a diesel based thermal power plant near Sir Baniyas Island, which is an ecological fragile area. Based on the project activity, two probable scenarios, one for diesel leak (250 m3/h) for 1 h and the other for instantaneous spill (500 m3) are considered. The MIKE 21 model was calibrated for hydrodynamics using measured field data followed by diesel-spill simulation to track its movement in the Arabian Gulf. The results for both leak and instantaneous spill indicate that spilled diesel will not move towards the Sir Banyas Island and more than 45% of the diesel will be evaporated within 48 h of oil spill. Based on the results, a clean up and contingency plan is proposed to mitigate the adverse impacts arising due to diesel spill in the study area.     

Application of Adjoint Approach to Oil Spill Problems

Adjoint method is applied to various oil spill problems. A three-dimensional model for describing the dispersion of a quasi-passive substance (a pollutant or a nutrient) and its adjoint model are considered in a limited sea region. Direct and adjoint estimates are used to get dual (equivalent) estimates of the mean concentration of the substance in important zones of the region. The role of dual estimates is illustrated with a few examples. They include such oil spill problems as the search of the most dangerous point of the oil tanker route, the oil dispersion with a climatic velocity, and the dependence of the oil concentration estimates on the oil spill rate. One more example is the application of optimal bioremediation strategy for cleaning a few zones polluted by oil. In this case, instead of oil, the model describes the dispersion of a nutrient released to marine environment. Balanced, unconditionally stable second-order finite-difference schemes based on the splitting method for the solution of the dispersion model and its adjoint are suggested. The main and adjoint difference schemes are compatible in the sense that at every fractional step of the splitting algorithm, the one-dimensional split operators of both schemes satisfy a discrete form of Lagrange identity. In the special unforced and non-dissipative case, each scheme has two conservation laws. Every split one-dimensional problem is solved by Thomas’ factorization method.     

Protecting Sensitive Coastal Areas with Exclusion Booms during Oil Spill Events

Oil spills at sea remain a serious threat to coastal settlements and sensitive ecosystems. Although the impacts of spills are contingent upon a variety of environmental factors and the chemical composition of the oil itself, spill effects can be long lasting in the pelagic zone with broad impacts on sensitive bacterial, microbial, plant, and animal communities. Efforts to contain, deflect, protect, and mitigate the effects of oil are increasingly important, given the massive social, economic, and environmental fallout connected to large spills. The purpose of this paper is to provide geographic perspective for protecting coastal areas with exclusion booms during oil spill events. Specifically, we introduce a generalized, extendable, spatial optimization model that simultaneously minimizes spill effects on vulnerable shorelines and the total costs associated with dispatching booms. The multiobjective model is solved with a weighting method to produce a Pareto optimal curve that reveals how the costs and protection operations change under different priorities. A simulated tanker spill near Mobile Bay, AL, USA, is used as an illustrative example.

     

溢油的GPC色谱鉴定

本文利用ＧＰＣ色谱测定物质分子量分布的特点，对溢油和怀疑溢油源ＧＰＣ色谱测定的结果，进行比较，找出溢油源。     

The Role of Wind in Modeling of Oil Pollution Transport and Diffusion in the Persian Gulf

The Persian Gulf ecosystem is facing a variety of stresses as a result of being located within the richest oil province in the world, which hosts more than 67 % of the world oil reserve. In this paper, the distribution of oil pollution on the surface layer of the Persian Gulf is predicted for the different months after the release, based on the Coupled Hydrodynamical Ecological model for Regional Shelf seas (COHERENS). An Eulerian model for the Persian Gulf is set up using the Cartesian coordinate in the horizontal direction, and the sigma coordinate in the vertical direction. Based on this model, our analysis and simulation results indicate that the winds lead to diffusion of the contaminant concentration in the direction of the Arabian coast from the initial position of the spill. The results of this study can be used to provide appropriate solutions for preventing oil from spreading further in the region.     

The Fate in the Marine Environment of a Minor Diesel Fuel Spill from an Antarctic Research Station

Monitoring was undertaken of the fate in the marine environment of an accidental spill of diesel fuel (1000 litres) from Faraday Research Station, Galindez Island, Antarctica in March 1992. On the day after the incident concentrations in seawater reached a maximum of 540 µg 1-1 for n-alkanes and 222 µg 1-1 for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH). However, concentrations returned to local background levels within one week. The fuel had an immediate toxic effect on intertidal limpets in the local station area, and 100 animals were found dead the day after the spill. Surviving animals had elevated concentrations of both n-alkanes and PAH for over a month after the spill, reaching a maximum of 9960 µg kg-1 for n-alkanes and 90 µg kg-1 for PAH 30 days after the spill occurred. This was the result of accumulation from a residue of the diesel being flushed by rainwater into the littoral zone. Seven months after the spill concentrations of both n-alkanes and PAH in limpets living close to the station were still an order of magnitude greater than those found in animals at an uncontaminated control site. This is because limpets living in the littoral zone were continually exposed to chronic but low-level hydrocarbon contamination from station activities. The diesel spill itself had a very minor, localised and short-term impact on the Antarctic marine environment.