Trends in accidents,disasters and risk sources in Europe

Most of the adverse impacts on man and/or the environment result from routine human activities such as the process industry, electricity generation and use, transport and agriculture (hazards, i.e. sources of risk). Apart from such essentially technological hazards, possibly resulting in “accidents”, human health and the environment can also be affected by natural hazards, possibly resulting in “disasters”, such as earthquakes or floods. This paper examines current trends in the risk sources and occurrences of four classes of such types of undesired events, entailing largely involuntary risk (e.g. neither car-driving nor smoking):

• •major accidents at fixed installations in the process industry,
• •incidents/accidents at nuclear installations,
• •marine transport and offshore installation accidents,
• •disasters caused by natural hazards and their potential exacerbation by human activities.

It aims to provide an integrated overview of such events in Europe (≡ 15 EU Member States, 4 EFTA, 13 PHARE, 7 TACIS and 5 other South and South Eastern European countries) during the last decade, estimating and interpreting trends in the number of risk sources and accidental events. For each type of event, specific “accident” definitions are given, illustrating the differences in the perception of the respective risk.     

Human factors integration – Bridging the gap between system designers and end-users: A case study

Within any high hazard industry such as chemical, oil and gas, rail or nuclear, it is necessary to involve system end-users within the design process if system design is to be optimised. To facilitate the identification and assessment of end user requirements it is necessary to integrate human factors (HF) into design from the start of the design lifecycle.During 2004, the author facilitated the integration of HF into a development project being implemented at a major gas processing facility on mainland Britain. The approach taken to HF integration on the project is commonly applied across the high hazard industries. This paper will provide information on this process and the benefits that this provided to the operator. Details will be provided on the approach taken in terms of:

• –Liaison between HF and other design disciplines.
• –Analysis undertaken and tools used.
• –HF topic areas covered.
• –Specific issues raised and how these were resolved.

It will demonstrate the advantage of the early integrated approach as compared to the later auditing or assurance approach sometimes taken in relation to HF.     

How the management aspects can affect the results of the QRA

This paper describes a procedure to include into the quantitative risk assessment (and namely in the construction and solution of the Fault Trees) the Safety Management System (SMS) aspects.The parameters used for probabilistic assessment of the Expected Number of Failures (ENF) of a Top Event are parameterised depending on:

• 1.a weight assigned to each SMS section with reference to the parameter;
• 2.a judgment about the correct application of the same SMS section.

Each probabilistic parameter (e.g. failure rates, mean time to repair, and so on) is thus modified using a mathematical algorithm, where an overall parameter including all the SMS sections influencing each single parameter is defined.The application of the procedure to a formaldehyde plant allowed the validation of the method and is here entirely reported.     

Investigations of flame front propagation between interconnected process vessels. Development of a new flame front propagation time prediction model

For the case where a dust or gas explosion can occur in a connected process vessel, it would be useful, for the purpose of designing protection measures and also for assessing the existing protection measures such as the correct placement, to have a tool to estimate the time for flame front propagation along the connecting pipe. Measurements of data from large-scale explosion tests in industrially relevant process vessels are reported. To determine the flame front propagation time, either a 1 m³ or a 4.25 m³ primary process vessel was connected via a pipe to a mechanically or pneumatically fed 9.4 m³ secondary silo. The explosion propagation started after ignition of a maize starch/air mixture in the primary vessel. No additional dust was present along the connecting pipe. Systematic investigations of the explosion data have shown a relationship between the flame front propagating time and the reduced explosion over-pressure of the primary explosion vessel for both vessel volumes. Furthermore, it was possible to validate this theory by using explosion data from previous investigations. Using the data, a flame front propagation time prediction model was developed which is applicable for:

• •gas and dust explosions up to a K value of 100 and 200 bar m s⁻¹, respectively, and a maximum reduced explosion over-pressure of up to 7 bar;
• •explosion vessel volumes of 0.5, 1, 4.25 and 9.4 m³, independent of whether they are closed or vented;
• •connecting pipes of pneumatic systems with diameters of 100–200 mm and an air velocity up to 30 m s⁻¹;
• •open ended pipes and pipes of interconnected vessels with a diameter equal to or greater than 100 mm;
• •lengths of connecting pipe of at least 2.5–7 m.

     

Management of change: Lessons learned from staff reductions in the chemical process industry

Increasing global competition and shareholder pressure are causing major changes in the chemical industry. Over the last decade companies have been continuously improving staff efficiency. As a result, most modern chemical plants can be regarded as lean. Plans to further reduce the number of staff have come under increasing criticism by personnel for safety reasons, and there is strong resistance to further staff reductions. It is clear that management and workers often have conflicting viewpoints for more than just safety reasons; technologists and safety engineers also have different points of view. This results in complex decision-making processes and makes it difficult to realize changes.What can the chemical industries learn from their experiences of decision-making and management with regard to staff reductions?In our exploratory research that used four case studies, we were able to identify and analyse three distinct patterns, with some variations:

• •Fragmented and incomplete decision-making.
• •Unintended and undesirable side effects generated by the decision-making and management of change.
• •Development of difficult dilemmas and ambiguous issues.

In this paper, we present a conceptual model that includes factors important for optimizing shifts. This model can serve as a common frame of reference for all agents involved in the decision-making and management process with regard to staffing.The present study was based on four cases, which means our findings serve to form rather than test hypotheses. At this early stage it is not yet possible to generalize from or validate the results, but we plan to go beyond these preliminary results in future research.     

Problems with identifiying a standard procedure for determining KG values for flammable vapors

Assessing the effect of potential confined fuel–air explosions involves the examination of several essential parameters. These include the limits of combustion, maximum pressure and the deflagration index or K_G. Accurate measurement of these parameters can be influenced by numerous experimental conditions. This paper describes the sensitivity of one of these parameters (K_G) to several experimental influences. The deflagration index, K_G, is important since it is the main design parameter for explosion protection systems. These studies used a highly automated 20 liter combustion sphere, with a 10 mm fuse wire igniter. Our results for methane combustion show that the deflagration index, K_G, is very sensitive to

• •the gas composition; a 1% change in nitrogen composition changed the index value by 12 bar-m/s along the stoichiometric line. Our studies also identified some problems with mixing gases to the desired composition.
• •the moisture content of the gas, which can change the index by 13 bar-m/s.

For some combustion gas compositions, it was difficult to describe a K_G value due to significant fluctuations in the pressure vs time data. Finally, an extensive study of fuse wire igniter dynamics identified a means to provide a consistent energy delivery to the igniter. All of these problems contribute significantly to specifying a standard procedure for determining the deflagration index.     

Age and gender differences in conviction and crash occurrence subsequent to being directed to Iowa's driver improvement program

Introduction

This paper investigates potential gender and age differences in conviction and crash occurrence subsequent to being directed to attend Iowa's Driver Improvement Program (DIP).

Methods

Binary logit models were developed to investigate the factors that influence conviction occurrence after DIP by gender and age. Because of the low crash occurrence subsequent to DIP, association rules were applied to investigate the factors that influence crash occurrence subsequent to DIP, in lieu of econometric models.

Results

There were statistical significant differences by driver gender, age, and conviction history in the likelihood of subsequent convictions. However, this paper found no association between DIP outcome, crash history, and crash occurrence.

Impact on industry

Evaluating the differences in conviction and crash occurrence subsequent to DIP between female and male drivers, and among different age groups can lead to improvements of the effectiveness of DIPs and help to identify low-cost intervention measures, customized based on drivers’ gender and age, for improving driving behaviors.     

Crash risk perception of sleepy driving and its comparisons with drink driving and speeding: Which behavior is perceived as the riskiest?

Objective: Driver sleepiness is a major crash risk factor but may be underrecognized as a risky driving behavior. Sleepy driving is usually rated as less of a road safety issue than more well-known risky driving behaviors, such as drink driving and speeding. The objective of this study was to compare perception of crash risk of sleepy driving, drink driving, and speeding.

Methods: Three hundred Australian drivers completed a questionnaire that assessed crash risk perceptions for sleepy driving, drink driving, and speeding. Additionally, the participants' perceptions of crash risk were assessed for 5 different contextual scenarios that included different levels of sleepiness (low, high), driving duration (short, long), and time of day/circadian influences (afternoon, nighttime) of driving.

Results: The analysis confirmed that sleepy driving was considered a risky driving behavior but not as risky as high levels of speeding (P < .05). Yet, the risk of crashing at 4 a.m. was considered as equally risky as low levels of speeding (10 km over the limit). The comparisons of the contextual scenarios revealed driving scenarios that would arguably be perceived as quite risky because time of day/circadian influences were not reported as high risk.

Conclusions: The results suggest a lack of awareness or appreciation of circadian rhythm functioning, particularly the descending phase of circadian rhythm that promotes increased sleepiness in the afternoon and during the early hours of the morning. Yet, the results suggested an appreciation of the danger associated with long-distance driving and driver sleepiness. Further efforts are required to improve the community's awareness of the impairing effects from sleepiness and, in particular, knowledge regarding the human circadian rhythm and the increased sleep propensity during the circadian nadir.     

Risk factors associated with truck-involved fatal crash severity: Analyzing their impact for different groups of truck drivers

Introduction: Fatal crashes that include at least one fatality of an occupant within 30 days of the crash cause large numbers of injured persons and property losses, especially when a truck is involved. Method: To better understand the underlying effects of truck-driver-related characteristics in fatal crashes, a five-year (from 2012 to 2016) dataset from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) was used for analysis. Based on demographic attributes, driving violation behavior, crash histories, and conviction records of truck drivers, a latent class clustering analysis was applied to classify truck drivers into three groups, namely, ‘‘middle-aged and elderly drivers with low risk of driving violations and high historical crash records,” ‘‘drivers with high risk of driving violations and high historical crash records,” and ‘‘middle-aged drivers with no driving violations and conviction records.” Next, equivalent fatalities were used to scale fatal crash severities into three levels. Subsequently, a partial proportional odds (PPO) model for each driver group was developed to identify the risk factors associated with the crash severity. Results' Conclusions: The model estimation results showed that the risk factors, as well as their impacts on different driver groups, were different. Adverse weather conditions, rural areas, curved alignments, tractor-trailer units, heavier weights and various collision manners were significantly associated with the crash severities in all driver groups, whereas driving violation behaviors such as driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs, fatigue, or carelessness were significantly associated with the high-risk group only, and fewer risk factors and minor marginal effects were identified for the low-risk groups. Practical Applications: Corresponding countermeasures for specific truck driver groups are proposed. And drivers with high risk of driving violations and high historical crash records should be more concerned.     

Trends and characteristics of animal-vehicle collisions in the United States

Introduction

Since 1990, fatal animal-vehicle collisions (AVCs) in the United States have more than doubled. This paper examines annual AVC trends in the United States over a 19-year period, seasonal and diurnal patterns of AVC risk, the geographic distribution of crash risk by state, and the association between posted speed limit and AVC crash risk in darkness.

Method

AVCs were compiled from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and the General Estimates System (GES) for the years 1990-2008 to examine annual crash trends for fatal and nonfatal crashes. Seasonal trends for fatal AVCs were examined with the aggregated FARS dataset; seasonal trends for fatal and nonfatal AVCs were also examined by aggregating four years of Michigan crash data. State-by-state distributions of fatal AVCs were also described with the aggregated FARS dataset. Finally, the relationship between posted speed limit and the odds that a fatal or nonfatal AVC occurred in darkness were examined with logistic regressions using the aggregated FARS and Michigan datasets.

Results

Between 1990 and 2008, fatal AVCs increased by 104% and by 1.3 crashes per trillion vehicle miles travelled per year. Although not all AVCs involve deer, daily and seasonal AVC crash trends follow the general activity pattern of deer populations, consistent with prior reports. The odds that a fatal AVC occurred in darkness were also found to increase by 2.3% for each mile-per-hour increase in speed; a similar, albeit smaller, effect was also observed in the aggregated Michigan dataset, among nonfatal crashes.

Conclusion

AVCs represent a small but increasing share of crashes in the United States. Seasonal and daily variation in the pattern of AVCs seem to follow variation in deer exposure and ambient light level. Finally, the relative risk that a fatal and nonfatal AVC occurred in darkness is influenced by posted speed limit, suggesting that a driver's limited forward vision at night plays a role in AVCs, as it does in pedestrian collisions.

Impact on Industry

The association between speed limit and crash risk in darkness suggests that AVC risk might be reduced with countermeasures that improve a driver's forward view of the road.     

Transport company safety climate—The impact on truck driver behavior and crash involvement

Objective: The present study investigated the relationships between safety climate and driving behavior and crash involvement.

Methods: A total of 339 company-employed truck drivers completed a questionnaire that measured their perceptions of safety climate, crash record, speed choice, and aberrant driving behaviors (errors, lapses, and violations).

Results: Although there was no direct relationship between the drivers' perceptions of safety climate and crash involvement, safety climate was a significant predictor of engagement in risky driving behaviors, which were in turn predictive of crash involvement.

Conclusions: This research shows that safety climate may offer an important starting point for interventions aimed at reducing risky driving behavior and thus fewer vehicle collisions.     

Creating Pedestrian Crash Scenarios in a Driving Simulator Environment

Objective: In 2012 in the United States, pedestrian injuries accounted for 3.3% of all traffic injuries but, disproportionately, pedestrian fatalities accounted for roughly 14% of traffic-related deaths (NHTSA 2014 NHTSA. Traffic Safety Facts 2012 Pedestrians. Washington, DC: Author; 2014. DOT HS 811 888. [Google Scholar]). In many other countries, pedestrians make up more than 50% of those injured and killed in crashes. This research project examined driver response to crash-imminent situations involving pedestrians in a high-fidelity, full-motion driving simulator. This article presents a scenario development method and discusses experimental design and control issues in conducting pedestrian crash research in a simulation environment. Driving simulators offer a safe environment in which to test driver response and offer the advantage of having virtual pedestrian models that move realistically, unlike test track studies, which by nature must use pedestrian dummies on some moving track.

Methods: An analysis of pedestrian crash trajectories, speeds, roadside features, and pedestrian behavior was used to create 18 unique crash scenarios representative of the most frequent and most costly crash types. For the study reported here, we only considered scenarios where the car is traveling straight because these represent the majority of fatalities. We manipulated driver expectation of a pedestrian both by presenting intersection and mid-block crossing as well as by using features in the scene to direct the driver's visual attention toward or away from the crossing pedestrian. Three visual environments for the scenarios were used to provide a variety of roadside environments and speed: a 20–30 mph residential area, a 55 mph rural undivided highway, and a 40 mph urban area.

Results: Many variables of crash situations were considered in selecting and developing the scenarios, including vehicle and pedestrian movements; roadway and roadside features; environmental conditions; and characteristics of the pedestrian, driver, and vehicle. The driving simulator scenarios were subjected to iterative testing to adjust time to arrival triggers for the pedestrian actions. This article discusses the rationale behind creating the simulator scenarios and some of the procedural considerations for conducting this type of research.

Conclusions: Crash analyses can be used to construct test scenarios for driver behavior evaluations using driving simulators. By considering trajectories, roadway, and environmental conditions of real-world crashes, representative virtual scenarios can serve as safe test beds for advanced driver assistance systems. The results of such research can be used to inform pedestrian crash avoidance/mitigation systems by identifying driver error, driver response time, and driver response choice (i.e., steering vs. braking).     

Adolescent, and their parents, attitudes towards graduated driver licensing and subsequent risky driving and crashes in young adulthood

Problem

Although Graduated Driver Licensing Systems (GDLS) have helped reduce young driver crash rates, they remain significantly over-represented in crash statistics. To be effective GDLS rely heavily on support for the legislation by those directly involved; parents to enforce the restrictions and adolescents to comply. There is some evidence that practices regarding GDLS restrictions influence adolescent driving outcomes in the early stage of licensure. However there has been no examination undertaken on the influence of parent and adolescent attitudes toward GDLS on adolescents’ driving behavior and crash experiences as they move into their young adult years. The aim of this research was to examine these relationships.

Method

This investigation was based on a longitudinal study of a birth cohort, and uses data collected when the cohort members were aged 15, 18, and 21 years. At age 15 both adolescent and their parent attitudes toward GDLS were measured. At age 18 adolescent GDLS attitudes were measured again. The association between these measures and self-reported risky driving behavior and crash involvement at age 21 were examined.

Results

Negative attitudes toward the learner supervisor restriction for males, and negative attitudes toward a GDLS for females were strongly associated with risky driving and crash involvement as young adults.

Impact on industry

Targeting interventions to improve adolescents and parents understanding of the reasons for graduated licensing and the specific restrictions may improve attitudes and views and thereby contribute to a reduction in risky driving behaviors and crash risk among young adults.     

Perils of using speed zone data to assess real-world compliance to speed limits

Objective: Real-world driving studies, including those involving speeding alert devices and autonomous vehicles, can gauge an individual vehicle's speeding behavior by comparing measured speed with mapped speed zone data. However, there are complexities with developing and maintaining a database of mapped speed zones over a large geographic area that may lead to inaccuracies within the data set. When this approach is applied to large-scale real-world driving data or speeding alert device data to determine speeding behavior, these inaccuracies may result in invalid identification of speeding. We investigated speeding events based on service provider speed zone data.

Methods: We compared service provider speed zone data (Speed Alert by Smart Car Technologies Pty Ltd., Ultimo, NSW, Australia) against a second set of speed zone data (Google Maps Application Programming Interface [API] mapped speed zones).

Results: We found a systematic error in the zones where speed limits of 50–60 km/h, typical of local roads, were allocated to high-speed motorways, which produced false speed limits in the speed zone database. The result was detection of false-positive high-range speeding. Through comparison of the service provider speed zone data against a second set of speed zone data, we were able to identify and eliminate data most affected by this systematic error, thereby establishing a data set of speeding events with a high level of sensitivity (a true positive rate of 92% or 6,412/6,960).

Conclusions: Mapped speed zones can be a source of error in real-world driving when examining vehicle speed. We explored the types of inaccuracies found within speed zone data and recommend that a second set of speed zone data be utilized when investigating speeding behavior or developing mapped speed zone data to minimize inaccuracy in estimates of speeding.     

Personality of young drivers in Oman: Relationship to risky driving behaviors and crash involvement among Sultan Qaboos University students

Objective: Drivers’ behaviors such as violations and errors have been demonstrated to predict crash involvement among young Omani drivers. However, there is a dearth of studies linking risky driving behaviors to the personality of young drivers. The aim of the present study was to assess such traits within a sample of young Omani drivers (as measured through the behavioral inhibition system [BIS] and the behavioral activation system [BAS]) and determine links with aberrant driving behaviors and self-reported crash involvement.

Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted at the Sultan Qaboos University that targeted all licensed Omani's undergraduate students. A total of 529 randomly selected students completed the self-reported questionnaire that included an assessment of driving behaviors (e.g., Driver Behaviour Questionnaire, DBQ) as well as the BIS/BAS measures.

Results: A total of 237 participants (44.8%) reported involvement in at least one crash since being licensed. Young drivers with lower BIS–Anxiety scores and higher BAS–Fun Seeking tendencies as well as male drivers were more likely to report driving violations. Statistically significant gender differences were observed on all BIS and BAS subscales (except for BAS–Fun) and the DBQ subscales, because males reported higher trait scores. Though personality traits were related to aberrant driving behaviors at the bivariate level, the constructs were not predictive of engaging in violations or errors. Furthermore, consistent with previous research, a supplementary multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that only driving experience was predictive of crash involvement.

Conclusions: The findings highlight that though personality traits influence self-reported driving styles (and differ between the genders), the relationship with crash involvement is not as clear. This article further outlines the key findings of the study in regards to understanding core psychological constructs that increase crash risk.     

Poverty as a determinant of young drivers' fatal crash risks

Problem

U.S. teenaged and young-adult drivers' elevated rates of fatal traffic crash involvement typically are attributed to biological and developmental risk-taking associated with young age. However, young drivers differ from older ones along several sociodemographic dimensions, including higher poverty rates and greater concentration in poorer areas, which may contribute to their risks.

Method

Using Fatality Analysis Reporting System, Census, and Federal Highway Administration data for 1994-2007, bivariate and multivariate regression analyses were conducted of fatal motor-vehicle crash involvements per 100 million miles driven by driver age (16 through 74) and state along with 14 driver-, vehicle-, and state-level variables.

Results

Driver age was not a significant predictor of fatal crash risk once several factors associated with high poverty status (more occupants per vehicle, smaller vehicle size, older vehicle age, lower state per-capita income, lower state population density, more motor-vehicle driving, and lower education levels) were controlled. These risk factors were significantly associated with each other and with higher crash involvement among adult drivers as well.

Summary and Discussion

The strong association between fatal crash risk and environments of poverty as operationalized by substandard vehicle and driving conditions suggests a major overlooked traffic safety factor particularly affecting young drivers.     

Powered two-wheeler riders' risk of crashes associated with filtering on urban roads

Objective: The objective of this study is to estimate the crash risk per kilometer traveled by powered two-wheeler (PTW) riders filtering through traffic on urban roads.

Methods: Using the traffic injury crashes recorded by the police over a period of 3 years on 14 sections of urban roads in the city of Marseille, France, and a campaign of observations of PTWs, the crash risk per kilometer traveled by PTWs filtering was estimated and compared to the risk of PTWs that did not filter.

Results: The results show that the risk of PTW riders being involved in injury crashes while filtering is significantly higher than the risk for riders who do not filter. For the 14 sections studied, it is 3.94 times greater (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.63, 5.89). This excess risk occurred for all PTW categories. Furthermore, no space appears to be safer than the others for filtering. Riders filtering forward along the axis of the carriageway, along bus lanes, or between traffic lanes (lane-splitting) all have a crash risk greater than the risk of those who do not filter.

Conclusions: All measures limiting the practice of filtering by PTWs on urban roads would probably contribute to improving the safety of their users.     

Assessing the impact of risk-taking behavior on road crash involvement among University students residing in two Mediterranean countries

Surveillance systems are indispensable for injury prevention; yet, detailed electronic records are rarely available. The “Student’s Health Card” is a self-reporting electronic tool addressing health issues of University students, while aiming to actively involve them in preventive practices and health promotion. Utilizing data from the injury prevention related section, this study sought to investigate the impact of risk-taking behavior on road crash involvement among University students residing in two Mediterranean countries. A total of 978 University students, 451 Greek and 527 Italian, provided information on prior road crash involvement, as well as on eight behavioral variables, comprising a risky behavior score. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed. The already known tendency for clustering of risky behaviors was evident. One degree increment in the risky behavior score was found to increase the risk of road crash involvement by 35%. Driving after drinking (OR = 2.55, CI = 1.53–4.26), riding with a drunk driver (OR = 2.19, CI = 1.08–4.45) and tobacco smoking (OR = 1.95, CI = 1.18–3.22) significantly multiplied the risk. Despite their better compliance with safety measures, Italian students, compared with Greek, reported worse alcohol-related driving habits and engaged more frequently in mobile phone use while driving. Clustering of risky behaviors was found to be an important predictor of road crash involvement. Screening and awareness of risk-taking propensity of University students could guide early intervention. The “Student’s Health Card” could provide, at minimal cost, reliable risk-taking and road crash involvement information, which is needed for both personal risk assessment and surveillance purposes.