The effect of habit as a behavioural response in risk reduction programmes

A company's decision to implement a risk reduction programme must take account of employees' behavioural responses to the target risk. Hazard reporting by train drivers is examined in semi-structured interviews and a questionnaire study. It is suggested that the behavioural response of drivers, in terms of writing a report, depends on how the hazard is perceived. The response to “trivial” and “routine” hazards is habitual non-reporting, being characterized by a lack of risk evaluation. However, hazards that are evaluated as posing a significant risk are reported. Possible ways of breaking habitual responses to hazards, using behavioural change programmes, are discussed, and it is argued that management commitment is essential for their success.     

A methodology for evaluation and monitoring of recurring hazards in underground coal mining

This study provides a methodology for evaluation and monitoring of recurring hazards in underground coal mining. An important measure in this regard may be the ‘time between occurrences’ (TBO) of hazards that can be modeled in the similar fashion of ‘time between failures’ (TBF) data modeling which is practiced in reliability study. Typically, time between accidents is modeled in safety study. This study is therefore new in two counts: (i) statistically modeling hazard occurrences based on inspection reports and (ii) monitoring of safety status based on control charting of hazard occurrences. The methodology includes Weibull-distribution based hazard rate functions, Poisson-distribution based cumulative risk functions, and Weibull-distribution based control charts. The new methodology is applied to an underground coal mining worksystem and the results are discussed. The case study results show that hazards related to machinery, ground-fall, housekeeping, roadways, and materials are more frequently occurring. It is recommended that in addition to planned inspections for identification of hazards, a control chart based hazard mitigation scheme should be employed at the mine sections for better monitoring and control of hazards.     

Improving the effectiveness of warnings by increasing the appropriateness of their information content: some hypotheses about human compliance

The ways that warnings are administered vary greatly. A warning may come as a message broadcast on the radio about severe weather, as a flashing light in the cockpit of an airplane, or as an audible smoke alarm. Typically, warnings provide an auditory or visual signal to assist in the detection of an anticipated stimulus. However, warnings tend to operate in an all or none mode: either the warning is present, or it is not. Consequently, the information they provide is limited. If warnings are provided too often, their information content becomes even lower and frequent false alarms render them ineffective because of the “cry-wolf” effect. On the other hand, if warnings are not administered frequently enough, they result in too many potentially costly misses. In this conceptual paper, it is argued that the effectiveness of warnings might be significantly improved if warnings are made more “intelligent” by providing information about the likelihood of the occurrence of the stimulus. Several representative cases are discussed and analyzed in order to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed methods.     

Expert opinions, fuzzy probabilities, and warnings: toward a mathematical method for evaluating warning “read and heed” effectiveness

In many situations, and particularly in legal matters, decisions may be based on whether some possibility is judged to be “more probable than not”, as for example, whether a warning, had it been present, would “more probably than not” have prevented an injury. The probability of a warning accomplishing its purpose of preventing injury can, in principle, be computed based on probability calculus. However, this paper proposes that: (1) such computations must use “fuzzy” probability statements which as a result produce a range of weighted possibilities for the final outcome and, moreover; (2) the critical statistic for determining whether the outcome is “more probable than not” is the median rather than the mean of the possible outcomes. This paper briefly outlines the mathematics for such computations and provides several examples. The paper basically treats fuzzy probabilities as standard “random variables” restricted to the range of [0,1].For brevity, this paper only treats the multiplication of two or more fuzzy probabilities. However, this is adequate for evaluation of a two stage “read and heed”, or of longer multiple step linear sequences and is indicative of the general approach. Treatment of the additive and general case will be found in later publications.     

Risk assessment of antagonistic hazards

This paper considers the risk to major hazard plant from terrorists deliberately causing catastrophic industrial accidents. The United States of America Department of Justice [Assessment of the increased risk of terrorist or other criminal activity associated with posting off-site consequence analysis information on the internet, 2000] reports that “breaching a containment vessel of an industrial facility with an explosive or otherwise causing a chemical release may appear relatively simple to…a terrorist”. They concluded that the risk of such action is “real and credible”.

Analysis of terrorism is often hampered by its being described as ‘irrational’; one corollary would be that it is unpredictable. However, terrorism may usefully be treated as a rational behaviour and in doing so it becomes possible to assess the risks it causes.

We analyse the vulnerability of major hazard plant to terrorist attack and identify nine factors (access, security, visibility, opacity, secondary hazard, robustness, law enforcement response, victim profile, and political value) that might be used as a starting point for more formal risk assessment and management.     

Intrinsic road safety: A new approach?

In 1991 the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management concluded that its policy regarding road-safety should be sharpened in order that its goal set for road-safety in the year 2010 would be achieved (i.e. 50% reduction of dead and 40% reduction of wounded persons in comparison with 1986). This new policy is being called “Intrinsic Safety”.The important elements of this course of action are:

• - A greater degree of control of structural developments.

• - Increased action to prevent accidents rather than that which reduces the severity of the consequences of accidents.

• - Greater attention for an integral approach of traffic safety, through influencing all kinds of decision makers outside the realm of traffic safety.

• - Not viewing and treating the human aspects, the roads and the vehicles in isolation, but primarily focusing attention on the interaction between these components.

At the moment the Ministry has inaugurated some actions which will be a more specific elaboration of “Intrinsic Safety”.In this paper we will try to analyze whether this new policy is a totally new concept rather than an intensification of the old course of action. Furthermore we will discuss a few problems which may occur when the “Intrinsic Safety” approach will be elaborated in the near future. For example:

• - How do we make sure that chosen measures (e.g. decisions concerning the infrastructure) will be the most effectual ones in relation with safety?

• - Is the organisation at this moment sufficiently fit to work on an “intrinsically safe traffic system” or is it inappropriate? (e.g., presently there is an increasing tendency of decisions being made by regional departments rather than by central government)

• - Are we in the possession of sufficient knowledge concerning the interactions between the several goals of traffic policy so that actions taken in relation with one goal (e.g. reducing air pollution) will not have a negative effect on traffic safety?

     

Risk and system integrity concepts for safety-related control systems

This paper provides an overview of the concepts of “risk” and “safety-integrity” in relation to safety-related electrical/electronic/programmable electronic systems. The paper is an abridged version of Annex A of the emerging International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Standard; “Functional safety of electrical/electronic/programmable electronic systems”. Although based on Annex A, the authors have deviated in a few instances, from the strict wording of Annex A in order to more properly represent their own views. Where this occurs, a note in the text has been added to alert the reader of the deviation. The concepts of risk (including tolerable risk; safety integrity; safety-related system; System and Software Integrity Levels) are discussed.     

A risk-estimation methodological framework using quantitative assessment techniques and real accidents’ data: Application in an aluminum extrusion industry

The risk estimation presumably is the most crucial part of the entire procedure of assessing hazards/unsafe situations in the work, and especially in the industries’ and constructions’ worksites, where the working conditions are unstable. We can consider the risk as a quantity, which can be estimated and expressed by a mathematical relation, under the help of real accidents’ data. The aim of this work is quadruplicate: (a) the development, elaboration and explanation of two new quantitative risk-assessment techniques, (b) the improvement of specific points of other scientific works, as far as concerns quantitative risk estimation, (c) the application of these techniques on an industrial productive procedure (as a case study) and (d) the comparison of their outcome risk-estimation results. Particularly, we develop and analyze the theoretical background of the two techniques, which we call as “proportional technique” and “decision matrix technique”, and apply them on an aluminum extrusion industry's worksite, which is situated in Greece, by using real data of potential sources of hazards, recorded by safety managers, during the 5.5-year time period of 1999–2004. Comparing the results of the two quantitative risk-assessment techniques, we infer that they are compatible. Therefore, the most important hazard source in the aluminum industry is the “squeezing and hits by dropping objects (transported by derricks)”, and imposes that immediate suppressive measures must be taken place to abolish the danger source.     

Occupational health and safety promotion: Problems and solutions

Most occupational safety and health (OSH) professionals would agree that having a good OSH promotion programme is a challenge, and problems can be encountered at almost every stage in the planning and delivery of the programme.The first obstacle which may be encountered is programme justification. How does one convince employers and employees of the need for OSH promotion, and does competition from “Wellness Programmes” reduce available resources? Programme planning, deciding what constitutes a programme, and what to include in the OSH promotion programme, may be a dilemma. The programme implementation, deciding who implements the activities and how a programme is sustained, may be other difficult issues. Finally, programme evaluation can be problematic: How is it done properly? and Who should evaluate the programme?Possible solutions to these problems may include the costing of work accidents and occupational ill health to justify the need and benefits of an OSH programme, and riding on the bandwagon of “wellness promotion” instead of competition for limited resources. In programme planning, knowing what is wanted and employing a professional to plan the programme is essential. The programme coverage should encompass health and safety issues, and preventive strategies should be directed towards both environment and lifestyle factors. There should be a prioritization of topics according to the needs of workers. The choice of OSH professionals versus “wellness promoters” or human resource officers as programme co-ordinators may affect the programme outcome. Training supervisors and line workers to be trainers would involve those directly in contact with work hazards in the programme. Programme evaluation is crucial. There should be provision for both process and outcome evaluations, and pains should be taken to ensure independence and objectivity of evaluations. The idea of linking programme results to the OSH personnel assessments is worth considering.The delivery of OSH promotion programmes in a relevant and effective manner poses a real challenge. While some obstacles and problems appear to be insurmountable, these challenges have to be faced and overcome in order to achieve the goals of protecting and promoting the health of the worker.     

The implementation of the SEVESO II legislation in the Polish major hazard industry

The paper presents the implementation of the SEVESO II Directive in Poland. Particularly, a systematic approach to the realization of MAPP, Safety Report and Emergency Plan is shown. It takes into account the real technical and organizational standards of the Polish major hazard industry as well. The impact of the implementation of SEVESO II Legislation on safety performance changes in particular major hazard companies was assessed using the questionnaires method of data collection. The fundamental question of that survey was: did that exercise improve safety performance or was it just a ‘paper work’? The majority of survey reported more positive than negative comments. The conclusions were drawn and some suggestions were made to improve major accident control in Poland.     

Application of domino effect quantitative risk assessment to an extended industrial area

Escalation of primary accidental scenarios triggering a “domino effect” have caused extremely severe accidental events in the chemical and process industry. The identification of possible escalation events is required in the safety assessment of sites where relevant quantities of hazardous substances are stored or handled. In the European Union, “Seveso-II” Directive requires the assessment of on-site and off-site possible escalation scenarios in sites falling under the obligations of the Directive. In the present study, a methodology developed for the quantitative assessment of risk due to domino effect was applied to the analysis of an extended industrial area. Recently developed equipment damage probability models were applied for the identification of the final scenarios and for escalation probability assessment. The domino package of the Aripar-GIS software was used for risk recomposition. The results evidence that quantitative risk assessment of escalation hazard is of fundamental importance in order to identify critical equipment and to address prevention and protection actions.     

重大危险源安全与自动化监控系统

对重大危险源实施系统、有效的安全监控是重大工业事故预防控制体系中的关键环节。文中给出了针对重大危险源监控全安全生命周期过程的整体实施流程,提出了重大危险源危险与风险评估的重点,探讨了重大危险安全与自动化监控的三层构建框架和工作过程,研究了安全系统与基本过程控制系统相独立的监控方式,给出了安全仪表系统的设计要求。     

GIS应用于城市重大危险源监控的综述

系统地总结出GIS在重大危险源监控方面的应用现状,简要介绍了地理信息系统的概念及其在重大危险源监控方面的作用。重点论述利用GIS的基本功能强化重大危险源安全管理;利用WebGIS技术对整个地区的重大危险源进行监控,实现信息共享;利用基于GIS的监控预警技术,降低事故率;利用GIS和GPS结合的方法,减少事故引发的损失;利用GIS决策支持技术,指导监控及应急救援。经过分析论证得出的结论是:研究GIS空间分析、模型分析和基础数据的获取技术是今后努力的方向。提出GIS在重大危险源监控方面的应用的发展趋势,为GIS技术在我国重大危险源监控方面的应用发展提供借鉴。     

Environmental stewardship—What does it mean?

Human activities have impacted the environment since the first toolmakers learned to make fire. As the human population has grown and changed, so has our impact on the environment. Currently the world's population is estimated at 6–7 billion, and that number of people, along with the billions of domesticated animals, and their activities, are large enough to have major global and regional impacts. Climate change, declining fish populations in the oceans, and ever decreasing ranges for “wild” ecosystems are the most obvious impacts. Other impacts may be surprising to many people, especially those impacts that are regional and not raised to the level of international concern.This paper will take a very high level look at a number of global, regional and local human interactions with the environment, and how mitigating those impacts requires a very broad and multi-disciplinary response. Examples will focus on water, carbon and energy, all of which are needed for life, as we know it, to exist. Stewardship will be shown to involve determination and monitoring of many key indicators and environmental processes, followed by the tough decisions on how to steward those processes to maintain a healthy environment for all the planet's inhabitants. Stewardship is not easy, and there are few cases where solutions can be neatly divided into good or bad, positive or negative.     

Filterability of oil sands tailings

In Canadian oil sands mining operations, bitumen is extracted from oil sands using the hot water extraction process, which produces tremendous amounts of tailings. Currently, these tailings are disposed of in large ponds, in which coarse particles settle out relatively quickly and fine particles remain suspended in water and settle very slowly. After years of settling, the fine particles form a stable suspension in water known as mature fine tailings (MFTs). Long-term storage of the MFT is costly and poses a major environmental liability.Oil sands companies are now actively investigating different approaches to replace or reduce the use of oil sands tailings ponds. Filtration of the tailings to produce “dry tailings” for stacking is now being investigated as an alternative by a number of companies. Fast water drainage is a critical step for the filtration process. In this paper, we use simple laboratory-scale filtration tests to evaluate the filterability of the oil sands tailings and to generate a parameter that can be used in filtration scale-up. It was found that the filterability of the original coarse oil sands tailings was relatively low. However, after the fines are flocculated with the coarse particles to form uniform flocs the filterability was improved by several orders of magnitude. The results demonstrate that filtration of the flocculated coarse tailings to produce the “dry” stackable tailings may be viable.     

Eye movement and reaction time measures of the effectiveness of caution signs

The effectiveness of various forms of caution signs was evaluated using saccadic eye movements and reaction time as the dependent variables. Both dependent measures show that caution signs requiring specific positive actions are processed more slowly and less efficiently than signs requiring avoidance behaviors. Additionally, the data show that changing the order of the “consequences” and “instructions” elements of the caution signs did not influence the number of saccades, the speed, or accuracy of interpretation. The research shows that saccadic eye movement may be an effective method for evaluating the design of caution signs.     

Warning variables affecting personal protective equipment use

This paper describes two studies conducted to test selected warning variables for their influence on the use of personal protective equipment. Both of the studies were field demonstrations; one conducted in a recreational setting and the other as part of a consumer product scenario. Each of the studies involved manipulations that could be practically implemented in many warning situations. Both studies showed that cost strongly influenced the use of personal protective equipment. “Cost” was shown to include parameters of time and difficulty with obtaining the equipment. The results indicate that a small increase in cost can devastate equipment use rates. Additional factors that were shown to positively influence equipment use under at least some circumstances include: (1) the addition of “specific consequence” information, including accident frequency and severity data, to standard warning signs/labels; and (2) product labels requiring physical manipulation by the consumer for product use.     

基于无线传感器网络的市政下水道可燃气体监测系统设计及应用

为防止下水道可燃气体积聚引发爆炸事故,利用无线传感器网络技术设计了市政下水道可燃气体监测系统.实测结果表明:气体传感器监测数据相对误差在2.0%以内,无线数据收发设备的年发送成功率达到98.0%,满足工程运用需求,系统具有较高的可靠性和稳定性.结合无线网络覆盖范围广、实时在线的特点,该系统实现了对不同区域下水道内可燃气体浓度的远程监测,为下水道的安全预警提供了有效依据.     

GIS在重大危险源控制方面的应用

系统地总结出GIS在重大危险源控制方面的应用现状,简要介绍了地理信息系统的概念及其在我国重大危险源控制方面的应用,主要阐述了GIS在城市重大危险源事故管理系统、重大危险源监控系统及城市应急救援联动系统中的应用,并尝试提出GIS在重大危险源控制方面应用的发展趋势,为GIS技术在我国重大危险源控制方面的应用发展提供借鉴.