基于安全流变理论的交通系统事故过程分析

运用事物的安全流变规律分析系统的运行过程 ,指出系统的运行过程符合安全流变规律。通过对交通系统中的不安全因素扰动的分析 ,揭示了交通系统的安全流变特征 ;对传统的事故定义进行了拓展 ,将事故隐患纳入了事故的发展过程 ;提出了交通系统事故安全流变分析方法 ;最后通过一个具体的案例分析了系统事故的安全流变过程。     

工业事故演变混沌特性研究

混沌与随机是本质上不同的两种特性.区分产生工业事故演变系统的混沌性和随机性是进行工业事故模拟和预测的基础.本文通过对工业事故演变特性进行分析,初步结果表明,工业事故演变具有混沌动力系统的一些特征,提出通过相空间重构及Lyapunov指数来判定工业事故演变的混沌特性.     

基于分岔理论的人-机-环煤矿安全系统的混沌调控

运用分岔理论对人-机-环安全系统中的事故发生机制进行深层次研究;事故的演变过程具有典型的混沌特性,在煤矿安全生产这个大系统中,由于管理的缺陷,会导致人因的不安全频率的振荡和物(包括环境)因的不安全频率的振荡,互相作用,反复迭代。这些不安全频率在一定的时空上产生耦合现象,系统就会出现混沌,即可能会导致事故的发生。由此建立基于分岔理论的事故控制模型,并提出控制事故的新理念。安全工作就是要使系统的控制熵保持负值,确保系统从无序向有序的方面发展,实现本质安全化。     

HAZOP及LOPA分析技术在煤气化工艺安全评估中的应用

为提高煤化工生产工艺安全水平,尽可能降低事故发生率,有必要应用工艺风险管理技术对工艺过程中的危害因素进行全面系统的分析。本文简要介绍了LOPA分析方法和HAZOP分析方法,并将LOPA分析方法和HAZOP分析方法相结合对煤化工气化装置工艺安全进行风险分析,以减少煤化工工艺运行风险,从而优化系统的安全性和可靠性。     

工艺安全管理系统中的工艺危害分析方法比较

简要介绍了工艺安全管理系统,其中工艺危害分析是工艺安全管理系统中的核心要素。对通常采用的故障假设/检查表、故障类型及影响分析、事故树分析、危险与可操作性研究、保护层分析五种分析方法进行了比较,得出了它们的优点、缺点、适用范围及应用时机。故障假设/检查表分析法比较容易使用,适用于工艺的初次评估;故障类型及影响分析、事故树分析适用于高危险性工艺中的工段、组件或单元操作的分析;危险与可操作性研究可以非常系统、全面的对工艺进行分析,是最有效的工艺危害分析方法。保护层分析方法是一种半定量的风险评价方法,它通过分析系统中各个防护层的失效概率来评估潜在事故的危险性,并与可接受标准进行比较,从而实现对防护系统防护性能的判断。通过对分析方法的比较可以指导化工企业选用合适的分析方法来进行工艺危害分析。     

危险化学品事故后果计算过程探讨

基于事故后果的风险评估方法是国内外进行安全评价和土地使用安全规划的基础方法之一。本文基于危险化学品种类和危险装置类型，对可能发生的事故情景和相应事故后果计算模型的选择方法进行了阐述，针对易燃、易爆、有毒危险化学品的事故后果计算过程进行了系统分析。最后对本文提出的事故后果分析方法进行了实例应用。本文的研究成果可为安全评价或土地使用安全规划等工作的开展提供必要的参考。     

基于功能共振事故模型的航空事故分析

航空事故大多是由诸多诱发因素紧密耦合、复杂交互导致的结果,为克服传统事故分析方法仅能处理单纯组件失效诱发的事故或相对简单的系统的不足,提出一种基于功能共振事故模型的航空事故分析方法。利用该方法,对美国5191航班冲出跑道事故进行系统分析。识别功能模块,评价功能性能变化,确定功能共振,并制定性能变化的防控屏障。结果表明:用该方法不仅能识别出导致事故的功能共振及其影响因素,解释事故发生的原因和过程,而且能够提出降低事故风险的防控措施。     

起重机械起吊物坠落伤人事故树定性分析

起重机械吊物坠落伤人事故是起重机械使用过程中时有发生的事故,本文应用事故树分析方法对该事故进行了分析,为制定预防和控制该类事故发生的措施提供了参考,为起重作业安全管理提供了依据。     

混沌理论在事故分析及预测中的应用

在对江苏常州市某公司安全事故资料进行大量调查与统计的基础上,应用混沌理论分析了该公司安全事故的混沌特征,指出了事故对初始条件的敏感依赖性和事故的长期不可预测性。应用重构相空间理论对安全事故次数的时间序列进行了分析和预测。同时,还对安全事故统计资料进行了R/S分析,得出该时间序列以2 0 0 1年6月为界限,存在两个Hurst指数,H1=1.6 82 8和H2 =0 .2 936 ,表明在以3个月为时间统计尺度的条件下,事故发生次数在前一时间段整体表现为持久相关性,而在后一时间段表现为反持久相关性。预测与分析结果与实际情况符合较好,表明应用混沌理论进行事故分析与预测是可行的,反映了事故的发展趋势。     

基于HFACS的空中相撞事故分析及建议

空中相撞事故往往是由诸多人为差错相互叠加、耦合和作用而导致的,要找出事故的真正诱因,防止类似事故再次发生,难度非常大。为了有效地分析和定位人为差错,以更好地服务于防相撞的管理与决策,提出一种基于人为因素分析分类系统（HFACS）的空中相撞事故分析方法,它按照从显性差错到隐性差错的思路来分析事故的诱因,最终找出组织因素对事故的影响。并利用HFACS对巴西卡欣布上空发生的一起空中相撞事故进行了系统分析。案例分析结果表明,该方法不仅能够找出导致空中相撞事故的人为差错,解释事故发生的原因和过程,而且能够据此提供防止相撞事故发生的安全建议。     

交通事故现场警务取证区块化溯源分析方法*

为突破以现场为中心的取证模式，研究基于交通事故过程导向的交通事故现场警务取证系统化方法，以审判为中心理念重构警务取证的新模式，应用区块链溯源方法的思想与技术，提出警务取证区块化溯源分析方法。结果表明:交通事故现场警务取证，应当以交通事故认定的交通事故构成的“七何”要件为证明标准；警务取证包括交通事故全过程的道路交通系统、交通事故现场、交通事故事实3个区块节点；取证具体涉及交通安全风险控制系统的8个系统要素，现场系统的7个系统要素，以及交通事故元素的2个事实要素。该方法的双向溯源技术可确保警务取证的成效，有效提升取证执法效能。     

Research on three-dimensional visualization system of Natech events triggered domino accidents in oil-gas depots

Natech events and domino accidents happen worldwide and usually lead to severe consequences, especially in hazardous areas such as Oil-Gas depots. With the continuous development of the Oil-Gas industry and information technology, it is essential to realize the three-dimensional management and monitoring of hazardous substances. To evaluate the consequences caused by Natech events triggered domino accidents (accident chain), a matrix loop method was proposed to calculate the probability and evolution path of the accident chain. The actual layout and the real-time data of the Oil-Gas depot are input into the evaluation method in matrices, thus making the results reliable and updated. Besides, a B/S architecture system is developed to present the evaluation consequences of the proposed method. The three-dimensional visualization effects of natural disasters, technological accidents and the dynamic propagation process of the accident chain are also realized in the system to enhance the user's experience. A system application regarding lightning-triggered domino accidents was carried out to demonstrate the feasibility and rapidity of the proposed evaluation method and perform the system's operation process and visualization effects. The application results show that the system can provide effective decision-making assistance to safety management workers before the accident and guidance for emergency rescue operations during the accident.     

A novel knowledge database construction method for operation guidance expert system based on HAZOP analysis and accident analysis

An expert system for operation guidance will contribute to identifying the operatoration problems and indicating the resolutions thereof, because the information stored in the expert system can be utilized to resolve the corresponding technical problems. However, there are several problems that should be solved in the practical application of the expert system, such as lack of corresponding knowledge or resolutions utilized to cope with the problems, inapplicable resolutions, too many resolutions for the operators to choose from to obtain the best one in the first time, etc. Obtaining and storing as much as information in the database of the expert system are important issues in the construction process of the expert system. The accident analysis results contain a limited number of accident cases and the HAZOP analysis only refers to a single deviation analysis. This paper has presented a novel knowledge database construction method for an operation guidance expert system based on the HAZOP analysis and the accident analysis, which can be used to resolve the above problems. The HAZOP analysis results are combined with the accident analysis results and the combination information can be stored in the database of the expert system, and can be employed to forecast accidents or identify accident causes. The structures of the operation guidance table and the accident investigation table have been illustrated. The residuum hydrotreating process expert system is taken as an example to illustrate the knowledge database construction method. With the aid of this expert system, the operators will well understand the operations and adopt the best resolutions to deal with the abnormal situations. Also the operators can identify potential risks existing in the plant which will result in accidents according to the accident analysis results associated with the HAZOP analysis results.     

基于案例推理的地铁非常规突发事件应急决策方法研究

针对地铁非常规突发事故发生时,由于地下环境复杂且封闭,很难获取较全面、准确的事件信息等问题,非常规突发事件的地铁应急决策是一个复杂的过程。通过对地铁事件原则性机理进行分析和研究,得到地铁发生重大火灾事故情景分析的贝叶斯网络节点变量,借鉴CBR模型的思想,将基于结构和属性的双重情景检索的事故案例推理应急决策方法应用到地铁火灾非常规突发事件应急决策中,该方法排除了因属性值缺失造成相似度无法计算或计算有误的情况,可为地铁交通应急平台的后期建设提供理论支持     

Applicability of accident analysis methods to Chinese construction accidents

IntroductionIt is necessary to clearly understand construction accidents for preventing a rise in Chinese construction accidents and deaths. Better analysis methods are required for Chinese construction sector accidents.MethodsChoosing and analyzing a typical construction accident based on four popular contemporary accident causation models: STAMP, AcciMap, HFACS, and the 2-4 Model. Then we evaluated the models' applicability to construction accidents, including their usability, reliability, and validity.ResultsSTAMP addressed how complexity within the accident system influenced the accident development, and its output makes the responsibilities clearer for the accident. AcciMap described the entire system's failure, the entire accident's trajectory, and the relationship between them. AcciMap showed that the accident was a dynamic developing process, and this method has a high usability. The taxonomic nature of HFACS is an important feature that provides it with a high reliability. In the accident reviewed here, we found that poor management was a critical factor rather than the individual factor in the accident. The 2-4 Model provided detailed causes of the accident and established the relationship among the accident causes, the safety management system, and the safety culture. It also avoided capturing all of the complexity in the large sociotechnical system and revealed a dynamic analysis and developing process. We confirmed that it has a high usability and validity. Therefore, the 2-4Model is recommended for future Chinese construction accident analysis efforts.Practical ApplicationsThe study provides a useful, reliable, and effective analysis method for Chinese construction accidents.     

基于事故逆向再现的车辆追尾事故仿真分析研究

为认定车辆碰撞事故的性质及责任，动态还原事故发生过程。提出1种逆向事故分析再现方法，经过坐标系旋转后构建确定方程组的车辆碰撞瞬间解析计算模型，并经过实车碰撞实验数据验证其计算精度与三维再现的准确性。利用Crashview软件对1起车辆追尾事故进行仿真分析，解析计算得出车辆碰撞瞬间车速和碰撞前行驶车速，实现事故二维过程重构和三维模拟再现。结果表明:计算分析车速与VDR记录车速误差在5%以内，模拟再现轨迹与事故现场实测痕迹基本吻合，所构建的方法可有效用于车辆追尾碰撞事故辅助分析鉴定，为事故过程分析提供理论依据。     

飞机抗鸟撞的预警动力学模型

为预防鸟撞事故,根据事故发生过程和开放系统的熵演变过程有很大相似性这一特点,采用信息熵理论解释事故发生过程,进而建立鸟撞事故发生和预警的动力学模型,揭示引发事故的主要原因和预防事故的对策。在此基础上,采用基于熵的综合评价方法,对造成事故的多个因素进行对比分析和综合评价,得出鸟撞事故中飞行时间(季节和昼夜2个因素)、飞行高度、飞机的结构、遭遇的鸟类和发生区域等5大类共6个因素的熵值。结果表明,飞鸟种类的熵值最大,为0.410 6;其次是飞机结构因素。因此,预防鸟撞事故应该从飞鸟控制和飞机结构设计着手。     

Method for identifying contributors to chemical process accidents

The paper presents a new method for identifying contributors to chemical process accidents by exploiting knowledge on causes of past accident cases. Accident reports from the Failure Knowledge Database were analyzed and utilized for hazard identification. The accident information gathered was used as a basis to develop an accidents ranking and points-to-look-for approach for the safe design and operation of chemical process equipment. In the method, accident contributors including technical, design and operation errors of major process equipment types and piping are identified. The method is applicable throughout the process lifecycle, even for process changes in the early design stages. The Bhopal tragedy is used as a case study to demonstrate and test the method. The proposed method can predict on average up to 85% of accident causes and design and operation errors.