SVM application in hazard assessment: Self-heating for sulfurized rust

In order to assess the oxidation self-heating hazard of sulfurized rust, for particular ambient conditions in crude oil tanks, the support vector machine (SVM) technique is applied to predict the maximum temperature (T_max) of oxidation self-heating process. Five governing parameters are selected, i.e. the water content, mass of sulfurized rust, operating temperature, air flow rate and oxygen concentration in the respiratory/safety valve. The efficiency and validity of the SVM predictions are investigated in the case of two sets of data: more than 85 experiments performed in academic lab (China) and almost 17 additional results collected from existing literature. Two main steps are also discussed: the training process (on selected subsets of data) and prediction process (for the remaining subsets of data). It can be concluded that for both datasets the maximum temperature (T_max) values calculated by SVM technique were in good accordance with the experimental results, with relative errors smaller than 15% except for a few cases.The SVM technique seems therefore to be relevant and very helpful for complex implicit processes such as chemical reactions, as it is the case of the oxidation of sulfurized rust in oil tanks. Furthermore, such predictive methods can be continuously be improved through additional experiments feedback (larger databases) and can then be of crucial help for monitoring and early warning of hazardous reactions.     

原油储罐区可燃气体探测器布置优化方案研究

为有效预警原油储备区储罐气体泄漏,制定气体探测器布置优化方案,以某大型原油站库为例,基于CFD法和FLACS软件模拟原油泄漏及可燃蒸汽云溢散分布,通过分析蒸汽云扩散规律,实现全方位气体探测器优化布置。结果表明:原油储罐区探测器分别布置在区块21-2、6-1、31-1、40-2,且每个罐组总计布置16处;优化设置方案可满足所有泄漏场景下可燃气体探测需求,有效减少探测器配置冗余。可为泄漏事故早期预警提供技术支持。     

埋地油罐事故伤害范围模拟评价

分析埋地油罐可能发生的火灾爆炸事故,建立事故模拟模型,模拟爆炸物质完全燃烧的质量依据化学计量浓度确定,事故伤害范围的计算用G.M莱克霍夫在砂质土壤中爆炸的冲击波计算方法。对50 m3埋地油罐模拟,油蒸气形成爆炸性混合气体爆炸伤害范围较大,安全范围与《汽车加油加气站设计与施工规范》中相关规定相符合。模拟方法用于埋地储罐的定量安全评价,为罐区选址、建设、安全距离确定及安全预案制定提供参考。     

外浮顶油罐雷击起火概率计

大型外浮顶储罐多次发生雷击起火事故,因此对其安全性做出客观评价,计算雷击起火概率现实意义重大。通过分析雷电对外浮顶油罐的危害方式,利用蒙特卡洛方法结合电气几何模型计算外浮顶油罐年雷击率。分析采用导静电线和可伸缩接地装置（RGA）的防护效果差别。最后计算安装可伸缩接地装置后油罐遭受雷击产生火花放电的年事故率。计算结果表明:年雷击率随着油罐直径和罐壁高度的增大而增加;采用可伸缩接地装置的防护效果明显优于传统导静电线;安装多个可伸缩接地装置可以明显降低产生火花的概率和年事故率。两个RGA就可以将油罐遭受雷击产生火花放电的年事故率降至10-5以下。     

Estimation of displacement losses from storage containers using a simple method

Filling losses in tanks due to the expansion of the liquid into the tank and the vapors that are forced out of the tank are generally called displacement losses. Restrictions on vaporization loss of petroleum products give added emphasis to the accurate prediction of vapor pressure and hydrocarbon losses for petroleum products. In this work, firstly, a simple-to-use correlation is developed to estimate the true vapor pressure of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gasoline as a function of Reid Vapor pressure (RVP) and temperature as well as the vapor pressure of different mixtures of propane and butane are correlated as a function of ambient air temperature and propane volume percent. Secondly, the filling losses from storage containers are estimated in percentage of liquid pumped in tanks as a function of working pressure and vapor pressure at liquid temperature. The study showed the proposed method to be in good agreement with the available reliable data in the literature. The average absolute deviation between reported data and the proposed correlation is less than 2%. The proposed simple-to-use approach can be of significant practical value for the process engineers and scientists to have a quick check on the prediction of the displacement losses from storage containers as well as for rapid estimation of vapor pressure of LPG and natural gasoline.     

我国与欧洲钢铁企业安全管理的差异与对策研究

对我国和欧洲大型钢铁企业安全管理现状进行了分析,较全面地考察和讨论了欧洲大型钢铁企业先进的安全管理经验和安全理念,包括:企业的安全管理机构和管理模式、精干有效的安全管理人员配置、先进的安全管理理念和方法、安全指标与绩效、欧洲的行业安全管理等。在此基础上,从管理理念、发展科学技术、宣传教育、管理人员、责任和考核、消防和急救资源、外协管理、安全信息化等方面,提出提升我国企业安全管理水平的对策。     

Risk-based inspection for large-scale crude oil tanks

Periodic Internal Inspection Method often results in under-inspection or over-inspection for large-scale crude oil tank. Therefore, how to determine reasonable internal inspection interval (INTII) has great significance on balancing the safe operation requirement and inspection cost for crude oil tanks. Here, RBI (risk-based inspection) technology is used to quantitatively assess the risk of crude oil tanks in an oil depot in China. The risk comparison between tank shell and bottom shows that the risk of tank depends on the risk of tank bottom. The prediction procedure of INTII for crude oil tanks is also presented. The INTII predicted by RBI method is gradually extended with the increasing of the acceptable risk level. The method to determine the acceptable risk of crude oil tanks is proposed, by which 3.54E+04 are taken as the acceptable risk of the oil depot. The safety factor of 0.8 is proposed to determine the final INTIIs for 18 crude oil tanks. The INTII requirement in China code SY/T 5921, 5-7 years, is very conservative and lower than predicted service life of tanks. The INTIIs predicted by Gumbel method are smaller than by RBI method for tanks with short INTII. Therefore, this paper recommends RBI method to predict the INTII for crude oil tanks.     

氯乙烯储罐的事故后果分析

氯乙烯具有毒性和易燃易爆性,如果泄漏至空气中,可能产生中毒或爆炸事故。笔者以某化工厂氯乙烯储罐为例,分析氯乙烯储罐可能发生的事故;对其主要事故危害,即中毒、蒸气云爆炸、扩展气体沸腾蒸气爆炸3种事故进行后果模型分析;计算出发生3种事故对人员伤亡和设备损坏造成的危害区域,并提出建议和对策。该研究结果可为同类企业进行安全管理提供科学依据和参考,有助于企业制定防范措施以及事故应急救援预案,从而减少人员伤亡及财产损失。     

企业安全氛围因子结构和要素组合关系测评研究

总结和分析了国外企业安全氛围测评研究进展,进一步明确安全氛围的概念、内容和研究重点;在参阅文献基础上,设计和开发出适用于国内企业安全氛围量化测评的调查问卷。选择商业企业作为研究样本,以多元统计为理论分析工具,开展实证研究工作;采用探索性因子分析方法提取和选择了商业企业安全氛围的安全需求、安全认识、安全参与、安全地位、安全实施5因子结构及14个关键要素,针对其因子结构和要素组合关系进行了研究和探讨。借助于雷达图形法对研究目标的安全现状给予量化评估,研究的方法和技术路线可为以后的安全氛围诊断模式探究提供参考思路。     

大型石油储罐消防设计研究

根据我国大型储罐设置的特点,分析了大型石油储罐在储存、转运过程中潜在的火灾危险。通过对千例石油火灾案例统计分析,获得了石油储罐发生火灾的主要原因。在此基础上,从石油储罐工艺设计、布局、防火和灭火等角度出发,分析大型石油储罐常用的类型、材料和防腐处理技术;研究储罐的布置间距;总结大型储罐消防设计中采用的防、灭火技术措施。论文研究的成果,可供实践工程参考。     

液化石油气站储罐区火灾爆炸危险性分析与安全措施

选择具体的液化石油气储配站,分析了该站的危险特性、危险产生的途径及可能造成的后果。在没有任何防护措施的情况下,采用蒸气云爆炸和沸腾液体扩展蒸气云爆炸模型,对该站一个50m3储罐发生泄漏造成的火灾爆炸事故后果进行预测,得出火灾爆炸后的安全距离为大于211．0m。在储配站不能满足此安全距离的基础之上,从防止产生爆炸性气体环境、消除点火源和抑制事故扩大三方面来提出有效的安全措施,降低事故发生的概率及事故造成的损失。其中,站址选在全年最小频率风向的上风侧且周围空旷的地区,罐上设置液位计、压力表、温度计及可燃气体报警器可防止产生爆炸性气体环境;罐及管道设静电接地,法兰用铜线跨接,站内设警示标志可消除点火源;生产区与辅助区间设置隔离墙,罐区周围设置砖混围堤,罐上设安全阀可抑制火灾爆炸事故扩大。     

原油油气职业卫生标准研究

我国目前尚未制订原油油气卫生标准,多数引用溶剂汽油卫生标准,研究表明原油油气毒性较溶剂汽油大,为保障油运装卸作业人员的健康,科学地监测与控制油气污染,确定合理的作业环境,制订原油油气卫生标准是十分必要的。该研究通过色-质联用分析,表明原油蒸气成份大多为C9以下烷烃、环烷烃及少量的芳香烃。采用大、小鼠为对象的急性毒性实验研究,获得大庆、胜利、渤海3种原油油气的LC50分别为49.54g/m3、77.54g/m3、417.50g/m3;亚慢性毒性实验研究表明,原油油气对动物神经系统的影响较为突出。现场劳动卫生学调查统计表明油轮、油码头作业人员,除了在装船、装罐作业状态下受到较大油气浓度危害外,大部分时间处于100mg/m3以下油气浓度环境,但长期从事油运装卸作业,表现出一定的健康异常,其主要症状是神衰症候群发生率明显增高,植物神经功能障碍,血象异常,其次为心率、心电图的改变等。根据上述研究结果,该研究认为原油装卸贮运作业场所原油油气时间加权平均容许浓度确定为100mg/m3(以总烃计)较为适宜。     

大功率应急柴油发电机组主油罐配置优化研究

为有效降低某工程大功率应急柴油发电机组主油罐的火灾安全风险和设备制造地下就位安装难度,通过对相关规范的分析,研究了两种主油罐配置优化方案,从规范符合性、油罐制造、油罐安装、安全性、运行要求和投资方面进行了比较,确定采用主油罐分置方案,并应用到具体工程项目。     

催化裂解装置火灾爆炸危险性评价

道氏方法是对石化装置风险性进行量化评价的一种行之有效的方法,尤其是对装置的系统和单元的固有危险性及安全设施降低危险性的安全补偿作用进行认识和评价,采用道化学公司的火灾、爆炸危险指数法,对安庆石化炼油厂65×104t/a催化裂解装置的潜在火灾爆炸和反应危险性进行评价和分析,得到“严重”以上程度的单元有:加热炉、丙烷塔、丙烯塔、液化气储罐和汽油柴油储罐、反应器、瓦斯发生器、乙烷塔和稳定器,同时给出单元的危险等级和薄弱环节,为工厂的风险管理和安全管理决策提供了科学依据,并为降低装置风险提出了建议。     

Breathing losses from low-pressure storage tanks due to atmospheric weather change

Vapors inside atmospheric and low-pressure storage tanks may condense either slowly during rainfalls or abruptly for instance by injection of cold liquid during steaming. Vapor condensation inside tanks may result in deformation and collapse. The latest editions of API 2000 and ISO 28300 standards lack an explicit formulation for the required in-breathing to compensate for vapor condensation, caused by a prolonged rainfall, which is the main topic of this paper. The analytical model here, which includes vapor condensation on the tank walls, predicted total in-breathing requirements for mixtures of air saturated with vapors, which are substantially larger than those calculated using the procedures in the standards. This paper is aimed to provide some realistic guidance for the reader addressing the issue of vapor condensation when determining the worst realistic case scenario for the tank breathing requirements.     

液化气球罐应力腐蚀开裂试验研究

由于炼制进口高硫原油,在炼油球罐检验中发现越来越多的内表面应力腐蚀裂纹。对球罐应力腐蚀开裂的原因和主要影响因素进行分析。从液化石油气球罐的安全性出发,采用线弹性断裂力学方法,针对16MnR和SPV50Q球罐所用钢材,在分析湿硫化氢环境下应力腐蚀开裂形式的基础上,通过改进的WOL预裂纹试样的应力腐蚀开裂试验,对不同球罐所用钢材、不同硫化氢浓度、不同焊接状态条件下的应力腐蚀开裂进行研究,并对设备所采用的材料、所处的介质浓度、材料的热处理状况等进行分析,并提出了防止对策。该方法也适用于液化石油气球罐应力腐蚀开裂,以预测事故的发生。     

Shake table study of annular baffles in steel storage tanks as sloshing dependent variable dampers

Aboveground steel storage tanks are widely utilized in industrial areas such as oil refineries, petrochemical complexes, oil depots, and etc. Assurance of these infrastructure facilities in high seismic areas is a very important engineering consideration. High amplitude fluid sloshing is one of the widespread causes of steel oil storage tanks during strong earthquakes addressed as an important failure mode. This phenomenon generates additional forces impacting the wall and roof of the tanks. Annular baffles can be used as slosh damping devises to control liquid sloshing within a tank. The main objective of this paper is experimental study of annular baffle effects as anti-sloshing damping devices to reduce fluid wave sloshing height in steel storage tanks typically used in oil and petrochemical complexes during an earthquake. Shake table tests have been used on a reduced scale model steel storage tank in two cases of with and without annular baffles. Three real earthquake ground motion records are used as input base motion. Based on the experimental test results, dynamic characteristics of studied tank models with different filling levels and different baffle dimensions and arrangements have been obtained and summarized in this paper. Also, sloshing heights and convective mode damping values are determined from the test results and compared with API650 code recommendations and recommended equations by other researchers. Generally, the results of this study indicate significant effects of the annular baffles in reducing the fluid wave sloshing height as sloshing dependent variable dampers.     

Effect of separation distance on gas dispersion and vapor cloud explosion in a storage tank farm determined using computational fluid dynamics

Storage tank separation distance, which considerably affects forestalling and mitigating accident consequences, is principally determined by thermal radiation modeling and meeting industry safety requirements. However, little is known about the influence of separation distance on gas dispersion or gas explosion, which are the most destructive types of accidents in industrial settings. This study evaluated the effect of separation distance on gas dispersion and vapor cloud explosion in a storage tank farm. Experiments were conducted using Flame Acceleration Simulator, an advanced computational fluid dynamics software program. Codes governing the design of separation distances in China and the United States were compared. A series of geometrical models of storage tanks with various separation distances were established. Overall, increasing separation distance led to a substantial reduction in vapor cloud volume and size in most cases. Notably, a 1.0 storage diameter separation distance appeared to be optimal. In terms of vapor cloud explosion, a greater separation distance had a marked effect on mitigating overpressure in gas explosions. Therefore, separation distance merited consideration in the design of storage tanks to prevent gas dispersion and explosion.     

大型原油商业储备油库火灾危险性数值模拟分析

石油储备油库多向大型化、复杂化方向发展,发生事故时扑救非常困难。为了深入探讨巨型油罐火灾发展趋势与规律、事故危害后果,结合宁夏惠安堡原油商业储备油库这一工程实例,采用基于大涡模拟的FDS模型作为模拟计算平台,对巨型油罐火灾的燃烧过程进行数值模拟计算。通过分析计算,得到烟气分布、温度分布、热辐射强度分布等火灾过程参数的变化趋势,以及在有风和无风状态下着火罐对相邻油罐的影响,探讨现行建设工程消防技术标准就储罐防火间距、火灾时对邻近罐体冷却设计要求运用于巨型储油罐时的消防安全状况,为巨型储油罐消防安全科学合理设计提供理论依据。