Risk evaluation in Dutch land-use planning

In Dutch external safety policy, the acceptance of risk for the population in areas surrounding hazardous substances establishments is based on a limit value for individual risk (IR). Additionally, changes to societal risk (SR) must be justified. A specific software program (SAFETI-NL) with the associated Reference Manual Bevi Risk Assessments (RIVM, 2009) is legally required for the calculation of IR and SR. This prescribed “Bevi calculation method” forms the basis for decisions with important consequences for industry, land use planning and the protection of citizens. It is important that the outcome of calculations made with the prescribed method can be relied upon when making decisions about land use planning that affects both industry and population. This is the subject of this paper.The prescribed calculation method has been evaluated by performing a case study. The evaluation focussed on risk modelling of a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE) at an LPG filling station, an incident type that plays a significant role in Dutch external safety. The risk modelling of the BLEVE with the prescribed calculation method was found to have a number of serious deficiencies. It is concluded that the prescribed calculation method yields no reliable perspective on the safety of production, use and storage of hazardous substances, nor of possibilities to increase safety.Decision making should not only depend on quantification of IR and SR. Improving the safety-relevance of the prescribed calculation method requires an increase of the number of dimensions of the outcome of risk calculations in order to make feedback possible. It is recommended to incorporate additional, safety-relevant information into planning and decision-making processes. It is envisaged that a more far-reaching change of Dutch QRA practice is needed (medium to long term). In this context, a number of interesting elements have been noticed in decision-making procedures in other EU Member States.     

Decentralized scheme for leaks’ location in a branched pipeline

This article presents a novel scheme for the detection and isolation of single leaks in a pipeline with a branch junction by measuring only the flow rate and pressure at the ends of the line. For the solution of this realistic issue, which commonly occurs in pipeline networks, the position of the branch junction and its flow rate are supposed to be known. The idea consists of deriving a model considering the branch junction as a known point in the pipeline such that the leak position is characterized by two possible orientations with respect to the branch (upstream and downstream of it). Thus, this model allows proposing a diagnosis scheme which includes a static selector and two identifiers designed by using a continuous extended Kalman filter with only one deviation parameter to be estimated. This framework reduces the identification task to one parameter which is associated with the deviation from a prescribed positive base position located between one of the pipeline ends and the branch. Simulation and experimental results with data of a hydraulic pilot pipeline of 200 [m] show the promise of the novel scheme.     

基于IMU智能安全帽姿态估计

提出一种基于9轴IMU的智能安全帽姿态估计算法,实现智能安全帽实时姿态估计。通过对IMU采集到的物体加速度和物体所在地磁感应强度数据进行分解,得到物体静态四元数数据;然后根据物体角速度数据和四元数的微分关系对动态四元数进行估计,实现物体的姿态估计。同时,文中提出修正转轴补偿的方法,解决由于物体俯仰角为±π/2时分解四元数计算横滚角时出现的奇异值问题。实验结果显示,文中算法可以实现智能安全帽的姿态估计,在估算精度和实现性上均有良好表现。     

A new pre-assessment model for failure-probability-based-planning by neural network

At present, the prediction of failure probability is based on the operation period for laid pipelines, and the method is complicated and time-consuming. If the failure probability can be predicted in the planning stage, the risk assessment system of gas pipeline will be greatly improved. In this paper, the pre-laying assessment model is established to minimize risk of leakage due to piping layout. Firstly, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) modeling is carried out for urban natural gas pipeline network. According to expert evaluation, 84 failure factors, which can be determined in the planning stage, are selected as the input variables of the training network. Then the FTA model is used to calculate the theoretical failure probability value, and the failure probability prediction model is determined through repeated trial calculation based on BP (Back Propagation Neural Network) and RBF (Radial Basis Function), for obtaining the optimal network parameter combination. Finally, two prediction models are used to calculate the same example. By comparing our pre-assessment model with the theoretical prediction consequences of the fault tree, the results show that the error of RBF prediction model can be close to 3%, which proves the validity and correctness of the method.     

Targeting for optimal grid-wide deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) techniques are considered as one of the promising approaches to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuel based power generation, which still accounts for a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions in the world. CCS technology can be used to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, with the additional advantage that it allows continuing use reliable and inexpensive fossil fuels. However, CCS retrofit entails major capital costs as well as a reduction of overall thermal efficiency and power output. Thus, it is essential for planning purposes to implement the minimal extent of CCS retrofit while meeting the specified carbon emission limits for the power sector. At the same time, it is necessary to plan for compensatory power generation capacity to offset energy losses resulting from CCS retrofit. In this paper, an algebraic targeting technique is presented for planning of grid-wide CCS retrofits in the power generation sector with compensatory power. The targeting technique is developed based on pinch analysis. In addition, the proposed methodologies are illustrated through case studies based on grid data in India and the Philippines. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the suitable CCS technology and compensatory power source which satisfy emission limits.     

Optimum placement of sea rescue resources

In countries with autonomous regional governments, the positioning of the national sea rescue resources is often a permanent source of friction between the national and regional authorities. This friction usually resurges after any heavily publicised accident. However, the process of planning sea rescue resources and their distribution in the various locations should be carried out according to scientific criteria.The aim of the present work is to build a tool which allows sea rescue resources to be assigned objectively. To this end, we formalise a general methodology based on gravitational models which allows us to define individual and zonal distribution models. Also, a practical application of the zonal model is performed, assigning ‘sea rescue boats’ to a segment of the coast where there are three ports.     

Participative multi-actor safety screening of infrastructures

Infrastructure planning very often underestimates safety issues in the early design phase. The reason for this is not necessarily the overwhelming importance of other aspects, such as functionality and economic considerations. Rather, the controversial views on safety held by different safety experts accounts for the major reason for not attributing safety the importance it deserves. In this paper we propose a seven-step methodology that allows multiple decision makers to evaluate infrastructure alternatives using safety and other indicators in early project phases. The methodology is based on analytic risk assessments, where the decision makers are asked to make ordinal tradeoffs among different safety, economic, and subjective aspects. The methodology allows multiple decision makers to aggregate preferences for different alternatives evaluated by different decision makers in a participative fashion. The proposed methodology was implemented in the Multimedia Group Decision Support Room at Delft University of Technology. The methodology was validated using real decision makers to show its realism and potential for participative decision making in safety planning.     

Risk-based maintenance (RBM): a quantitative approach for maintenance/inspection scheduling and planning

The overall objective of the maintenance process is to increase the profitability of the operation and optimize the total life cycle cost without compromising safety or environmental issues. Risk assessment integrates reliability with safety and environmental issues and therefore can be used as a decision tool for preventive maintenance planning. Maintenance planning based on risk analysis minimizes the probability of system failure and its consequences (related to safety, economic, and environment). It helps management in making correct decisions concerning investment in maintenance or related field. This will, in turn, result in better asset and capital utilization.

This paper presents a new methodology for risk-based maintenance. The proposed methodology is comprehensive and quantitative. It comprises three main modules: risk estimation module, risk evaluation module, and maintenance planning module. Details of the three modules are given. A case study, which exemplifies the use of methodology to a heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) system, is also discussed.     

Compression system check-valve failure hazards

Processes that utilize multistage compression systems (olefins plant compression systems, gas processing, integrated refrigeration systems, etc.) have the potential for overpressure due to single or multiple check-valve failure. Catastrophic equipment failure resulting from overpressure can potentially occur due to compression system discharge, interstage, and/or suction check-valve failure, coincident with compressor shutdown. Depending on system design and application, overpressure values approaching or exceeding 300% of equipment design are possible, while for some equipment, even limited overpressure can result in catastrophic vessel failure due to brittle fracture. Additional hazards associated with compression system fail-to-check scenarios include risks associated with excessive flare loading and compressor rotor reverse rotation. In the case of an ethylene refrigeration compressor at a typical ethylene plant, rotor reverse rotation can potentially exceed overspeed limits.This paper provides risk assessment results based on analyses performed on the three primary compression systems in six ethylene plants. The methodologies used for risk identification screening, detailed risk assessment and evaluation of system dynamics are all presented. Alternative methods for mitigating risks are also discussed, along with check-valve reliability data. An overview of applicable overpressure protection requirements defined in the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code is provided. This paper will be of interest to anyone who designs or operates multistage compression systems in the chemical, petrochemical or refining industries.     

区间数多属性决策在飞机一发失效应急程序方案优选中的应用

针对在飞机一发失效应急程序方案的选择中,很多定量因素难以精确量化的问题,将区间数多属性决策运用到飞机一发失效应急程序方案的优选中,构建了评价指标体系。此评价指标体系应用基于理想解的区间数多属性决策的相对隶属度法来选择最佳方案,该方法通过计算并查找现有方案的相对隶属度最大值来确定最佳方案。最后举例说明如何在实际中使用此方法。     

Development of a risk-based maintenance (RBM) strategy for a power-generating plant

The unexpected failures, the down time associated with such failures, the loss of production and, the higher maintenance costs are major problems in any process plant. Risk-based maintenance (RBM) approach helps in designing an alternative strategy to minimize the risk resulting from breakdowns or failures. Adapting a risk-based maintenance strategy is essential in developing cost-effective maintenance policies.The RBM methodology is comprised of four modules: identification of the scope, risk assessment, risk evaluation, and maintenance planning. Using this methodology, one is able to estimate risk caused by the unexpected failure as a function of the probability and the consequence of failure. Critical equipment can be identified based on the level of risk and a pre-selected acceptable level of risk. Maintenance of equipment is prioritized based on the risk, which helps in reducing the overall risk of the plant.The case study of a power-generating unit in the Holyrood thermal power generation plant is used to illustrate the methodology. Results indicate that the methodology is successful in identifying the critical equipment and in reducing the risk of resulting from the failure of the equipment. Risk reduction is achieved through the adoption of a maintenance plan which not only increases the reliability of the equipment but also reduces the cost of maintenance including the cost of failure.     

码头工程建设方案安全评价的研究

为了对码头工程建设方案进行安全评价,根据国家发展和改革委员会、国家安全生产监督管理局关于加强建设项目安全设施"三同时"工作的通知要求以及我国港口安全评价管理办法,选取码头工程港址选择,总平面布置,装卸工艺方案,水工结构、护岸、堆场地基与面层结构,道路交通,配套工程,自然条件,安全管理与劳动力素质等8个因素,设计了一套多指标综合评价体系;利用未确知数学理论,通过建立未确知测度模型、置信度识别准则并分析其指标因素,确定指标因素的可靠程度,提出一种基于未确知测度的利于码头工程安全设计管理及监察的科学的码头工程建设方案安全评价新方法;选取南方某港5000吨级通用码头工程建设方案进行验证。     

基于生态安全约束的再生利用项目规划设计方案决策

为确保我国旧工业建筑(区)再生利用项目方案设计阶段免受生态破坏与环境污染等因素的影响,提出了"生态安全约束"这一概念。考虑到决策者面对收益和损失的不同态度引入了前景理论,建立了生态安全约束下基于前景理论再生利用项目规划设计方案决策模型。首先,构建了包含总体规划、建筑设计、传承保护等因素的决策指标体系,并采用AHP与熵权相结合的方法计算权重,使得权重计算结果不仅体现了决策者的主管意愿,也反映了再生利用项目的客观规律;其次,以决策者预期值作为参考点给出期望矢量,将不同属性的决策数据信息规范化处理得初始决策矩阵,再根据指标间相对参考点的差值建立前景决策矩阵,通过计算各方案的综合前景值以确定最优方案。最后,通过北京首钢、云南871、陕西老钢厂、太原锅炉厂等5个实例的再生利用项目规划设计方案决策过程加以验证。结果表明,模型计算过程清晰,结果可信度高,验证了模型的合理性和科学性,可为规划设计阶段有效控制生态环境破坏与厂区环境污染提供新的思路。     

高应力大变形软岩巷道“三壳”围岩控制机理及应用

为解决土城煤矿14运输上山软岩巷道变形量大、锚杆索失效严重等技术难题,通过现场调研、室内试验、理论分析、数值模拟及工业性试验等方法,揭示了围岩变形特征以及巷道失稳破坏机理,提出了“三壳”围岩控制理论。基于以上研究,设计了“锚杆锚索+灌浆+钢管混凝土支架”的复合支护方案,建立了基于“三壳”围岩控制理论的“三壳”支护结构体力学模型,计算出设计方案的极限承载能力为2.54 MPa,随后采用 FLAC3D数值模拟软件对设计方案进行模拟分析,验证了方案合理性。最后,该复合支护得到成功运用,现场监测结果表明:巷道顶底板以及两帮变形量均低于100 mm,巷道未发生明显变形,支护效果良好。     

Safety Attitudes and Their Relationship to Safety Training and Generalised Self-Efficacy

This paper studies safety attitudes, their relationship with safety training behaviour, and generalised self-efficacy. From a sociotechnical perspective, training programs might be used as a mechanism for enhancing attitudes, especially to improve safety and occupational health. Also, self-efficacy allows to enhance training effectiveness. The aim of this paper is to validate a safety attitude scale and to examine its relationship to safety training behaviour and self-efficacy in organisational settings. With data from 140 employees, results show a conceptually meaningful 3-factor solution. Hier-archical multiple regression analysis shows a main effect of safety training behaviour and levels of self-efficacy on safety attitude. Study limitations and its implications on safety training design are also discussed.     

淮河水质变清的产业规模制约与规划漏洞补丁

为分析产业规模对淮河水质变清的制约作用,论证实现淮河水质变清目标的必要条件,考察规划方案的不充分性缺陷,首先计算了少数几个行业的部分产品在完全达标排放情形下的COD排污总量。根据1995年淮河流域四省少数几个行业的部分产品实际产量和当时执行的水污染物排放标准,计算得到的COD达标排污总量值(36.95万t)就已超过水质变清目标下的最大允许排放总量值(36.8万t),其中流域内造纸行业的COD达标排放总量就高达27.66万t,占实现淮河流域水质变清目标时所允许最大排放量36.8万t的75.2%。《淮河流域水污染防治规划及"九五"计划》未涉及行业或产品的规模控制、最大允许COD排污总量的行业或产品分配、目标可达性与方案充分性的论证等内容。规划方案与规划目标是相互脱节的,无法保障规划目标的实现。产业结构中排污负荷高的产品生产规模过大且没有得到严格有效的压缩控制是导致淮河流域水质变清目标未能实现的重要原因之一。要想实现淮河水质变清,严格控制全流域内排污负荷高的工业产品总产量规模是必要条件之一。     

城镇油气管道事故应急疏散决策优化

为实现油气管道事故中城镇大规模应急疏散的智慧决策,构建基于改进的自适应蚁群算法的应急疏散路径优化模型,开发基于油气管道典型事故后果分析的城镇大规模应急疏散决策优化系统平台(LSSED)。LSSED在地理信息系统平台上,针对油气管道泄漏引起的扩散、喷射火、池火、BLEVE、蒸气云爆炸等典型事故进行事故后果分析,对疏散通道当量长度和疏散时间成本函数进行定量评价,实现大规模应急疏散方案的智慧决策和避难方案的全局优化。案例分析表明,LSSED平台实现了基于地理信息系统的典型事故时变环境信息和应急疏散路径优化算法的数据传递及系统集成,实现了基于事故后果分析的城镇大规模人群疏散路径和避难方案优化,可为城镇安全规划和应急管理提供参考和借鉴。     

基于风险评价的核应急分区疏散规划*

为保障核事故应急疏散的时效性和安全性,降低核事故损失,基于核辐射时空分布特征,对疏散集中点和疏散路网进行风险评价,提出分区疏散组织策略,结合行政区划法,完成核电站场外疏散区域划分;将总暴露风险作为优化目标,构建基于元胞传输的分区疏散规划模型,并以我国某沿海核电站为研究对象,验证分区疏散方案可行性。研究结果表明:考虑核辐射风险后的分区疏散方案,能够有效提高疏散效率,保障公众安全,降低疏散时间和暴露风险,优化疏散期间交通状况。研究结果可为核应急疏散组织工作提供参考。     

Protection performance of bicycle helmets

IntroductionThe evaluation of head protection systems needs proper knowledge of the head impact conditions in terms of impact speed and angle, as well as a realistic estimation of brain tolerance limits. In current bicycle helmet test procedures, both of these aspects should be improved. Method: The present paper suggests a bicycle helmet evaluation methodology based on realistic impact conditions and consideration of tissue level brain injury risk, in addition to well known headform kinematic parameters. The method is then applied to a set of 32 existing helmets, leading to a total of 576 experimental impact tests followed by 576 numerical simulations of the brain response. Results: It is shown that the most critical impacts are the linear-lateral ones as well as the oblique impact leading to rotation around the vertical axis (ZRot), leading both to around 50% risks of moderate neurological injuries. Based on this test method, the study enables us to compare the protection capability of a given helmet and eventually to compare helmets via a dedicated rating system.     

基于置信规则的村镇应急避难场所暴雨灾害链风险诊断*

为解决村镇应急避难场所面临暴雨灾害时的风险问题,基于故障树和置信规则库推理方法,提出暴雨灾害链和村镇应急避难场所功能破坏链相结合的场所避难功能失效风险诊断模型。根据事故致因理论推理灾害节点变量,通过故障树描述灾害链,运用关联规则从历史灾害数据中挖掘规则,建立置信规则库系统,构建村镇应急避难场所功能失效风险诊断模型,并以四川省某寄宿制学校为例进行模型验证。研究结果表明:该模型可实现不同证据组合下村镇应急避难场所功能失效风险的诊断推理;实例的模型诊断结果与实际情况吻合,证实该模型能够科学地诊断村镇应急避难场所面临暴雨等恶劣自然条件时存在的风险,可为村镇应急避难场所规划设计和应急管理提供理论支撑。