灾害生命价值评估理论研究

以生命价值定义为基础,给出了人力资本法的计算方法及其优缺点;认为支付意愿方法为生命价值评估的主流方法。基于单期的选择理论,以状态依赖的期望效用函数为基础,论述不存在遗赠意愿、存在遗赠意愿条件下降低死亡概率的边际支付意愿,揭示了改变死亡概率的边际支付意愿取决于初始的生存状态,即初始财富和初始死亡概率。个人可以通过交易重新安排消费和生存状态,达到效用最大化的目的,其条件是边际支付意愿等于提高生存概率的价格。影响生命的风险有多种,当外生风险、工作风险和消费影响死亡风险商品等风险共存条件下,风险水平高低是决定边际支付意愿的重要因素,风险越大,边际支付意愿越大。     

条件价值法评估生命价值的应用探讨

分别对条件价值法评估生命价值的经济学理论基础和研究进展进行阐述;分析条件价值法应用于生命价值评估可能会产生的偏差有假想偏差、策略偏差和信息偏差,并探讨支付意愿与受偿意愿、诱导技术、风险变化率对其结果有效性的影响。根据文献分析结果,结合前期应用条件价值法评估生命价值实证研究的成果,就如何提高条件价值法评估生命价值结果的可靠性和有效性给出实证研究设计方案,通过总体设计框架、工作环境风险认知调查、工作风险支付意愿的设计、社会经济信息变量的设置、调查准备与预调查、样本容量及抽样设计、数据统计分析等多个方面的优化设计可以保障评估生命价值的有效性和可靠性。     

基于生命经济价值理论的企业安全投资技术经济分析

正确估算人的生命经济价值 ,对于正确评价企业安全投资的经济效益有着重要的意义。在我国 ,长期以来 ,对各种伤亡事故和职业危害的经济赔偿标准定得太低 ,不仅使伤亡者不能获得合理的经济赔偿 ,而且客观上助长了企业经营者轻视安全投资的行为 ,这与我国缺乏较为完善的生命经济价值理论有着密切的关系。目前对人的生命经济价值的估算方法基本上可以分为两大类 :人力资本法和支付意愿法。笔者在前人研究的基础上 ,运用理论模型估算出我国目前一名具有高中文化程度职工的生命经济价值约为 72万元 ,如果条件许可 ,通过调查收集数据 ,然后采用支付意愿法并进行回归分析 ,可获得较为精确的估算值     

生命价值评估与死亡赔偿

在成本-收益分析过程中,生命价值评估为政府确定公共政策收益提供依据。论述生命价值的基本涵义;用劳动市场上的内涵工资法通过分析工资-风险均衡关系来研究生命统计价值,在工人的期望效用曲线与企业的等利润曲线的切点上,企业正常经营,工人实现期望效用最大化。通过对提供曲线求导得到生命价值。生命价值并不针对确定的死亡问题,把生命价值作为死亡赔偿的依据,是对生命价值概念的误解,混淆了生命价值的应用范围。我国法律法规以收入水平为基础确定意外死亡赔偿标准,其实质是人力资本法。     

新冠疫情背景下建筑从业人员统计生命价值研究*

为研究建筑职业风险和新冠疫情风险下的统计生命价值（VOSL）,以成都市建筑从业者为对象采集数据,基于生存分析处理删失数据的特性,运用二分式条件价值法（CVM）和Kaplan-Meier法测算不同背景下的VOSL,运用COX回归对VOSL影响因素进行分析。研究结果表明:成都市建筑从业者在职业风险和新冠疫情风险下的VOSL分别为429.472,459.079万元,生命价值评估具有情境依赖性且存在“引导悖论”;2种风险背景下受访者学历、月收入及安全重视程度的提高均会增强支付意愿,而安全满意程度的提高则会降低支付意愿;职业风险下影响支付意愿的关键因素为安全设备保障满意程度、重视程度和学历,新冠疫情风险下影响支付意愿的关键因素为卫生安全重视程度、学历和月收入。     

基于工资风险法的生命价值评估

为评估安全工作因挽救人的生命而产生的收益和制定工亡赔偿标准提供理论依据,在分析工资风险法评估生命价值经济学原理的基础上,构建生命价值评估模型。设计调查问卷对98家企业的795名员工进行调查,评估被调查员工的生命价值,并利用调查数据验证模型的有效性。评估结果表明:员工的生命价值评估值呈正态分布;在95%的置信水平下,生命价值评估值的置信区间为[3 424.62,4 284.33]万元,平均值为3 854.48万元。     

天津市乡镇工业企业大气污染健康损失估算

或然值评估法（Contingent Valuation Method)是一种广泛应用于环境物品，公共物品非使用价值或损害估算的具有代表性的非市场评价方法，而支付意愿（Willingness To Pay)是指在某种虚拟市场下，人们对环境物品，公共物品或某种服务愿意支付的货币量，其中，支付的最大货币量具有意义，根据支付的最大货币量，可以间接得到环境物品，公共物品或其损害的经济价值，从而可以获得导致损害的污染的经济估算值，本采用或然值评估法，通过调查当地居居的支付意愿，估算了天津市郊区乡镇工业企业大气污染导致的人体健康损失，结果显示，在1999年，天津市郊区（县）乡镇工业企业大气污染导致的人体健康损失值在9645万元和55772万元之间，人均为31．2元到180．4元之间（1999年），分析结果还表明，被调查的年收入，年龄与其支付意愿呈极显性相关。     

基于生命价值理论的职工伤害赔偿办法探讨

通过分析目前国内经济形势与职业健康的关系,发现职业伤害赔偿存在一系列问题,证实进一步对职业伤害赔偿问题进行探讨是必要的。从我国实际情况出发,借鉴国外风险交易理论和国内人力资本理论,参考以人力资本法为中心的生命价值理论,提出职工生命价值理论及职工生命价值曲线。然后根据职工生命价值理论,建立了涵盖职业劳动价值、业余劳动价值及精神价值的职业伤害赔偿办法,而考虑业余劳动价值,更加符合我国居民的生活状态。为保证职工生命价值的实现,顺利解决伤害赔偿的一系列问题,提出此职业伤害赔偿管理与落实计划。     

我国部分保健与安全活动经济代价的初步评价

社会中的许多卫生保健活动都需要在经济代价和人的安全健康之间作出权衡。这种权衡往往需要确定危害人们健康和安全的经济价值。笔者从人力资本和支付意愿两个方面,对我国卫生、环保、安全有关的经济数据进行了评价分析。在人力资本方面,考虑了人均终生的国民生产总值、国民收入、消费水平、职工工资、城乡居民收入。在支付意愿方面,考虑了医疗救治的费用、社会保险费用、司法赔偿、职业劳动保护费用、降低辐射危害的费用以及政府采用数值等。根据这些分析评价,笔者建议：我国卫生保健有关的人的社会经济价值,若以１９９０ 年可比价格计算,分布在（９～４０）万元之间,适中的估计为２０ 万元。     

伤亡事故中生命经济价值估算研究

伤亡赔偿标准由于人的年龄、经历、工作等的不同而不同。本文参考国内外相关资料后,在人人平等的基础上区分了不同人的生命价值,设计的估算方法基本包含了各个年龄段的人的生命价值。估算结果仅适用于事故和不可抗力造成的伤亡情况,不适用于故意伤害谋杀等犯罪活动造成的伤亡。生命价值没有上限只有下限,使生命经济价值的估算值有较大提高,这对提高伤亡赔偿标准,对提高人们对生命价值的认识都有一定的价值。     

Valuing lives equally in a benefit-coast analysis of safety projects: A method to reconcile theory and practice

A value of statistical life (VSL) is used in cost-benefit analysis (CBA) as a monetary measure of the benefits to people from small risk reductions that arise from safety projects. Despite its widespread use in a number of countries, the concept of a VSL remains controversial, not least because it implies acceptance of the underlying ethical assumptions of CBA together with the idea that ‘social welfare’ can be measured and aggregated in some manner. In addition, to comply with theory, variable VSLs for different groups within society would be advocated. However, without fail, empirically, it is the case that those countries that employ a willingness to pay based approach to cost-benefit analysis of a safety project appraisal tend to use a single value for that accident context that is independent of the per capita income level, or indeed other personal characteristics, of the sub-group in society to which the safety improvement will actually apply. This article presents a straightforward, but theoretically justified adaptation to the calculation of a VSL which allows empirical practice by policymakers i.e. the application of a “common” VSL for any particular hazard within a given society, to be compatible with a CBA decision making approach.     

Estimating the value of life and injury for pedestrians using a stated preference framework

IntroductionThe incidence of pedestrian death over the period 2010 to 2014 per 1000,000 in North Cyprus is about 2.5 times that of the EU, with 10.5 times more pedestrian road injuries than deaths. With the prospect of North Cyprus entering the EU, many investments need to be undertaken to improve road safety in order to reach EU benchmarks.MethodWe conducted a stated choice experiment to identify the preferences and tradeoffs of pedestrians in North Cyprus for improved walking times, pedestrian costs, and safety. The choice of route was examined using mixed logit models to obtain the marginal utilities associated with each attribute of the routes that consumers chose. These were used to estimate the individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) to save walking time and to avoid pedestrian fatalities and injuries. We then used the results to obtain community-wide estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL) saved, the value of an injury (VI) prevented, and the value per hour of walking time saved.ResultsThe estimate of the VSL was €699,434 and the estimate of VI was €20,077. These values are consistent, after adjusting for differences in incomes, with the median results of similar studies done for EU countries. The estimated value of time to pedestrians is €7.20 per person hour.ConclusionsThe ratio of deaths to injuries is much higher for pedestrians than for road accidents, and this is completely consistent with the higher estimated WTP to avoid a pedestrian accident than to avoid a car accident. The value of time of €7.20 is quite high relative to the wages earned.Practical applicationsFindings provide a set of information on the VRR for fatalities and injuries and the value of pedestrian time that is critical for conducing ex ante appraisals of investments to improve pedestrian safety.     

“Total risk of death”—Towards a common and usable basis for consequence assessment

Assessment of the risk of exposure to a “dangerous dose” (DD) is the basis of the UK Health and Safety Executive's HSE's current risk assessments for land-use planning (LUP). Some years ago, a hybrid approach using both DD and “significant likelihood of death” (SLOD) was proposed as an improvement, but was not adopted.Here, an alternative, weighted multiple threshold approach, provisionally titled “total risk of death” (TROD), is described. TROD improves the comparability of assessed risks from diverse hazards. This is achieved by first performing assessments for more than one threshold of consequence (such as DD assessment and SLOD assessment). The predicted risk for each threshold is then combined into a single risk value (at a specified location) by weighting the contributions to risk according to the predicted consequences for each threshold.This paper makes the case, in principle, for using TROD and illustrates how TROD values are constructed.TROD overcomes some of the objections that have barred progress to more widespread use of risk assessment, it is more comparable between different installations and hazards than DD, it is more sensitive than SLOD and more adaptable than probits (which can introduce a false sense of precision). It could support more direct comparison with other risks (e.g. everyday risks and transport risks) in the future.The appropriate “weightings” for addition of risks predicted for different consequence thresholds (contributing to TROD) are discussed here. A three-threshold scheme for evaluation of TROD is described. The thresholds are DD (assumed to approximate to a dose leading to ～1% fatal consequences or LD₁), LD₁₀, and SLOD (～LD₅₀).TROD has been used in HSE sponsored research and in HSE's exploration of societal risks.