城市加油站火灾风险分级研究

针对城市加油站储存有大量易燃、易爆油品,容易引发火灾爆炸事故的情况,通过对加油站事故案例的数据统计,分析得出加油站事故存在的主要风险以及导致城市加油站火灾事故发生的原因.基于风险管理的理念,对城市加油站火灾风险进行分级研究.借鉴相关风险评估研究成果,首先提出加油站火灾风险分级指标体系,采用层次分析法确定指标权重并予以量化,据此构建加油站火灾风险分级模型,通过模型得出加油站火灾风险等级,为安全监察部门开展工作提供依据.     

电子封装行业化学有害因素职业暴露评价

以法规及风险评价模型为基础,对电子封装行业内通常使用的化学有害因素进行职业暴露分析,将健康风险进行分级、定量评价,得出结论:行业中回流焊工艺可能产生的铅烟、电镀车间存在的硝酸、失效分析中使用的氢氟酸等,其职业暴露风险为中等风险水平;但由于化学物质的健康危害等级HR因其固有性而相对不变,而其会随控制措施的效果高低而变化的暴露等级ER是一个可变的要素,不同企业的控制措施的水平高低不同,其最终的风险等级可能是不同的。行业中使用的氢氧化钾、氢氧化钠的职业暴露风险为低风险水平,前提也是在合理有效的控制措施环境下。因此,控制措施的水平就是决定风险等级的最重要因素。时时地运行和维护有效的控制措施,是确保风险水平不发生变化的关键。     

基于动态分级法的地铁设备设施风险评价研究

为评估地铁安全运营水平,为地铁运营管理部门提供线路长期运营以来的安全风险变化趋势,基于地铁运营部门提供的有关某地铁的,主要涵盖车辆、通信系统、信号系统、供电系统、机电系统、线路和轨道系统、消防系统、环境与设备监控系统、自动售检票系统、土建等10类重要设备设施故障的统计结果,采用动态分级法(DT)对该地铁线路运营2 a来的设备设施风险进行分级,将地铁综合风险等级划分为7级,得到综合风险等级和风险逐月变化趋势。结果表明:综合风险分级结果与设备设施故障的变化趋势基本吻合,利用该方法可得到地铁运营的安全风险变化趋势。     

如何确定风险分级管控主体和进行安全风险告知

主持人,你好!请问工贸行业如何确定风险分级管控主体和如何进行安全风险告知?易安网友易安网友,你好!1.确定风险分级管控主体企业应遵循风险等级越高,管控层级越高的原则,依照分层、分级、分类、分专业管控的要求划分落实管控主体。对操作难度大、技术含量高、风险等级高、可能导致严重后果的作业活动,企业应重点管控。     

基于SPSS聚类分析的企业职业伤害风险分级标准研究

对不同行业和不同规模的221家企业基础数据的调研分析，借助sPSS的聚类分析功能，对企业职业伤害风险分级进行研究，通过综合分析认为将企业职业伤害风险分为4类较为合理，并给出了企业职业伤害风险分级建议标准。根据该标准对在广西壮族自治区A市和辽宁省B市调研获取的661家企业职业伤害风险进行分级分析，从而验证分级标准的合理性和可行性。     

风险矩阵法在危险有害因素分级中的应用

为减少风险分级时产生的风险结,采用Borda序值法改进原有的风险矩阵法。改进后的风险矩阵法通过计算Borda数,依据Borda数的大小对风险进行排序,使得风险等级数量大量增加,从而减少风险矩阵中风险结的数量。将该方法应用于某烧碱装置危险有害因素分级管理,对生产过程中的9种主要危险有害因素进行排序,得出它们可以分为6级,而应用原始的风险矩阵法得到的分级数为3级。然后,依据分级结果提出针对性的安全对策措施。     

冶金生产企业风险分级研究

冶金行业存在诸多风险,对其进行风险分级研究可以更好地做好预防工作。首先对冶金企业的危险有害因素进行了辨识;其次,建立冶金企业风险指标体系;最后,运用MATLAB与灰色变权聚类分析法计算风险等级。结果表明,违反操作规程的风险等级最高,是影响冶金企业生产风险级别的最高指标,遵守操作规程是企业安全工作的管理重点。     

人员密集场所拥挤踩踏事故风险分级模型及预防对策

为研究人员密集场所拥挤踩踏事故的影响因素及拥挤踩踏事故风险级别与管控措施,通过统计分析2002-2018年间国内不同场所发生的拥挤踩踏事故原因,构建事故树模型,从人的因素、道路因素、环境因素、管理因素4个方面提出人员密集场所拥挤踩踏事故的20个评价指标,建立踩踏事故风险评价指标体系,基于层次分析法对评价指标赋予权重,进而构建RCM-CS模型,并依据模型对事故风险进行分级评估。通过RCM-CS模型对已发生的踩踏事故风险等级评估发现,该模型可以很好的区分不同场所的拥挤踩踏风险等级,对于预测人员密集场所风险级别及预防拥挤踩踏事故的发生具有重要作用。     

专业安全评估在重庆烟草行业双重预防机制建设中的融合应用

自我国在高危行业提出双重预防机制的建设工作以来,烟草行业也在积极的探寻适用于本行业的双重预防机制建设,以确保行业中存在的风险得到有效管控,隐患得到有效排除。首先将双重预防机制建设与专业安全评估技术进行有机结合,探索其融合路径的同时,将专业安全评估应用到风险分级当中,并尝试运用德尔菲法、风险矩阵法和Borda序值法来解决以往对烟草的分散性、多类别事故的风险等级描述困难的问题。在此基础上,构建出烟草行业系统双重预防机制的基本模型。其结果表明:将专业安全评估应用于双重预防机制建设中,为烟草行业主要事故风险、事故风险防范和分级管控措施的确定提供了依据,为提高双重预防机制编制的针对性提供了借鉴,也为烟草行业双重预防机制工作的开展打下了良好基础。     

尾矿库溃坝灾害风险分级评估的加权云模型研究

为了实现尾矿库坝灾害风险的准确分析,提出了一种尾矿库溃坝灾害风险分级评估的加权云模型。首先基于文献计量法以及相关分级标准构建了尾矿库溃坝灾害风险分级指标体系;然后基于博弈论确定了频次法和投影寻踪算法的组合权重;最后采用云模型来表述各风险等级之间的模糊性和不确定性,并结合基于博弈论的组合权重确定了尾矿库溃坝灾害风险等级的综合隶属度,再采用9组尾矿库实例进行验证加权云模型的评估结果。结果显示,加权云模型评估的9组尾矿库样本结果与实际相符,表明模型具有较高的预测精度,可以为尾矿库溃坝灾害风险等级评估提供可靠的依据。     

基于数据挖掘的化工生产事故致因主题抽取

为充分挖掘化工生产事故数据中的有效信息和潜在规律,提高对化工事故认知水平,针对某化工集团2010—2016年共1 578起事故数据,利用社会网络分析等方法揭示事故要素间的关联关系;运用潜在狄利克雷分配（LDA）模型进行事故聚类,并抽取到5个事故致因主题。研究结果表明:LDA主题模型等数据挖掘技术能有效挖掘大量事故数据中的潜在信息;5个事故致因主题中,4个涉及到人因或组织层面的缺陷;员工注意力不集中和现场风险管理不足这2个致因主题间具有较强相关性;员工注意力不集中、现场风险管理不足以及设备问题是导致事故发生的主要原因。     

General assessment of the occupational accidents that occurred in Turkey between the years 2000 and 2005

Occupational accidents still constitute one of the major problems in Turkey, as they do all over the world. Every year, nearly one thousand people die due to occupational accidents and two thousand people are injured, becoming temporarily or permanently disabled. This leads to social and economic problems for these people. As a result, families suffer from occupational accidents socially and psychologically. On the other hand, the economy of the country and the employers are faced with economic loss and work day loss. The aim of this study is to assess the results of occupational accidents occurring between the years 2000 and 2005 in Turkey in terms of various criteria. In this study, a fluctuation in Turkey in the number of occupational accidents between 2000 and 2005 and a downward fluctuation in the number of deaths resulting from occupational accidents have been observed. Permanent disabilities have also shown a falling trend since 2002. Occupational accidents are mostly seen in the sectors of manufacture of metal goods (except for machines), construction, the textile industry, coal mining and manufacture of transportation vehicles, while the deaths of workers and permanently disabled persons due to occupational accidents are mostly seen in the construction sector.     

印染行业特种设备的风险评价与责任保险研究

特种设备在印染行业的广泛应用带来经济效益的同时也伴随着事故和风险,政府部门一直探寻有效的风险管理手段。近年来,保险作为转移风险的有效方式在安全生产方面备受关注,然而其在印染行业的特种设备中的应用还不够成熟。因此,文章根据印染行业特种设备的风险特点,着重从人、机、环、管四个方面分析其风险,并运用作业危险性评价法(LEC)评估作业人员的风险等级、计算事故最大可能损失(MPL)、运用等级系数安全评价法评估企业的安全性,从而量化印染企业的责任风险,应用于责任保险的保费费率浮动计算中。     

Acute injuries resulting from accidents involving powered mobility devices (PMDs)—Development and outcomes of PMD-related accidents in Sweden

Objective: Powered mobility devices (PMDs) are commonly used as aids for older people and people with disabilities, subgroups of vulnarable road users (VRUs) who are rarely noted in traffic safety contexts. However, the problem of accidents involving PMD drivers has been reported in many countries where these vehicles have become increasingly popular.

The aim of this study is to extract and analyze national PMD-related accident and injury data reported to the Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition (STRADA) database. The results will provide valuable insight into the risks and obstacles that PMD drivers are exposed to in the traffic environment and may contribute to improving the mobility of this group in the long term.

Methods: The current study is based on data from 743 accidents and 998 persons. An analysis was performed on a subset of data (N?=?301) in order to investigate the development of accidents over a period of 10 years. Thereafter, each accident in the whole data set was registered as either single (N?=?427) or collision (N?=?315).

Results: The results show that there was a 3-fold increase in the number of PMD-related accidents reported to STRADA during the period 2007–2016.

With regard to single accidents, collisions, as well as fatalities, the injury statistics were dominated by males. Single accidents were more common than collisions (N?=?427 and N?=?316, respectively) and the level of injury sustained in each type of accident is on par.

The vast majority of single accidents resulted in the PMD driver impacting the ground (87%), due to either PMD turnover (71%) or the driver falling out of the PMD (16%). The reason for many of the single accidents was a difference in ground level (34%, typically a curb).

Cars, trucks, or buses were involved in 67% of collision events; these occured predominantly at junctions or intersections (70%).

Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 3+ injuries were dominated by hip and head injuries in both single accidents and collision events.

Conclusions: The present study shows that further research on PMD accidents is required, with regard to both single accidents and collision events. To ensure that appropriate decisions are made, future work should follow up on injury trends and further improve the quality of PDM-related accident data. Improved vehicle stability and design, increased usage of safety equipment, proper training programs, effective maintenance services, and development of a supporting infrastructure would contribute to increased safety for PMD drivers.     

化工园区地震Na-Tech事件快速风险评估方法

为有效评估地震灾害与化工园区工业事故的耦合风险,在分析地震灾害作用于化工园区致灾特征的基础上,理清化工园区的主要承灾体类型,辨识出地震破坏承灾体单元后引发的火灾、爆炸、中毒等工业事故的主要影响因素,采用层次分析法(AHP),提出综合考虑地震灾害与工业事故耦合作用的Na-Tech事件快速风险评估方法。该方法以化工园区企业为评估单位,根据评估结果划定企业Na-Tech事件风险等级,并将此方法应用于某化工园区企业的风险评估。结果表明:该方法可操作性强,计算所需数据量小,且能有效反映地震Na-Tech事件风险特点。     

基于SNA的重特大道路交通事故风险指标体系构建

为加强对重特大道路交通事故的控制和预防,从95份重特大道路交通事故调查报告中提取相关数据,运用社会网络分析（SNA）构建重特大道路交通事故原因间的关系网络。通过社会网络相关指标,找到导致事故的关键原因,以及哪些原因组合导致事故的能力最强,得到重特大道路交通事故原因特征。建立重特大道路交通事故风险指标体系,并通过实例分析验证指标体系的合理性。研究结果可以进一步加深对重特大道路交通事故原因以及彼此间相互作用关系的认识,风险指标体系的建立可为重特大道路交通事故的预防预警工作提供参考。     

On the development of a new hybrid risk assessment process using occupational accidents’ data: Application on the Greek Public Electric Power Provider

The occupational accidents have a major impact upon human integrity and also bring about high costs for the social health and insurance system of a country. In addition, risk analysis is an essential process for the safety policy of a company, having as main aim the effacement of any potential of damage in a productive procedure, while the quantified risk evaluation is the most crucial part of the whole procedure of assessing hazards in the work. The main goal of this study is double: a) the development and presentation of a new hybrid risk assessment process (HRAP) and b) the application of HRAP in the Greek Public Power Corporation (PPC) (the unique electric power provider and the largest industry in Greece), by using occupational accidents that have been recorded, during the 12-year period of 1993-2004. The new process consists of four distinct phases a) the hazard sources’ identification phase, b) the risk consideration phase, c) the risk-evaluation phase, and d) the phase of the risk assessment and safety-related decision making. The results show that in some cases the risk value has been calculated in PPC to be higher than 500 (in the risk rating of 0-1000), which imposes the taking of suppressive measures for abolishing the danger source, while the fatal accident frequency rate (per 10⁸ man-hrs) is FAFR ≅ 2.4.     

Application of risk analysis in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector: An overview

In recent years, the global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) as an energy source is increasing at a very fast rate. In order to meet this demand, a large number of facilities such as platforms, FPSO (floating production, storage and offloading), FSRU (floating storage and regasification unit) and LNG ships and terminals are required for the storage, processing and transportation of LNG. Failure of any of these facilities may expose the market, companies, personnel and the environment to hazards, hence making the application of risk analysis to the LNG sector a very topical issue throughout the world. To assess the risk of accidents associated with LNG facilities and carriers, various risk analysis approaches have been employed to identify the potential hazards, calculate the probability of accidents, as well as assessing the severity of consequences. Nonetheless, literature on classification of the risk analysis models applied to LNG facilities is very limited. Therefore, to reveal the holistic issues and future perspectives on risk analysis of LNG facilities, a systematic review of the current state-of-the-art research on LNG risk analysis is necessary. The aim of this paper is to review and categorize the published literature about the problems associated with risk analysis of LNG facilities, so as to improve the understanding of stakeholders (researchers, regulators, and practitioners). To achieve this aim, scholarly articles on LNG risk analysis are identified, reviewed, and then categorized according to risk assessment methods (qualitative, semi-qualitative or quantitative; deterministic or probabilistic; conventional or dynamic), tools (ETA, FTA, FMEA/FMECA, Bayesian network), output/strategy (RBI, RBM, RBIM, facility siting, etc.), data sources (OREDA handbook, published literature, UK HSE databases, regulatory agencies' reports, industry datasets, and experts’ consultations), applications (LNG carriers and LNG fuelled ships, LNG terminals and stations, LNG offshore floating units, LNG plants), etc. Our study will not only be useful to researchers engaged in these areas but will also assist regulators, policy makers, and operators of LNG facilities to find the risk analysis models that fit their specific requirements.     

城市燃气事故生命损失风险可接受标准研究

为提高我国城市燃气风险管理水平，帮助风险管理者科学地分配维护资源，探讨提出了我国城市燃气事故生命损失风险可接受标准；采用AIR指标法确定了个人风险可接受标准范围为(2.397 3×10-7,4.794 7×10-7)；运用F-N曲线法结合ALARP原则，确定了社会风险可接受标准，最大可接受风险的截距为4.794 7×10-7，可忽略风险的截距为4.794 7×10-8；利用生活质量指数推导模型，计算了达到城市燃气事故可忽略风险水平的最优安全投入成本；基于风险动态原则，分析提出了风险可接受标准的更新办法。研究结果表明:我国城市燃气行业可接受风险水平低于煤矿、大坝、化工等危险行业的可接受风险水平；虽然我国城市燃气事故死亡率逐年降低，但要达到可忽略的风险水平，每年还需大量安全资金投入。     

Risk of repeat accidents by economic activity in Italy

RationaleThe phenomenon of repeat work-related accidents has not been sufficiently studied.ObjectivesTo evaluate the role of work-related factors in the occurrence of repeat accidents in Italy, using economic activity and the size of the enterprise as proxies and basing the analysis on available administrative data.MethodsThe data, provided by the Italian Workers’ Compensation Authority (INAIL), refer to accidents in the industry and artisan sectors and in the service industry between 1994 and 1999. We selected the data on accidents among 633,735 persons 25–55 years of age with a first accident in 1996–1997, and we determined the occurrence of further accidents within two years in the same economic activity, taking into account job mobility and factors associated with underreporting (geographic area, age, and size of the enterprise). The gender-specific relative risk was computed for each economic activity, given by the ratio between the risk of repeat accidents in a given economic activity and the risk in all of the other activities.ResultsIndividuals with a single accident differed from those with a repeat accident in terms of the distribution by gender, age-class, and severity of injury. The economic activities with the highest relative risk were generally those known to represent a risk of accidents in general: metal ore and coal mining, shipbuilding, the manufacturing of railroad equipment, building construction, road and railway construction, the primary iron and steel industry, foundry work, logging/wood manufacturing, slaughtering, and agriculture. However, certain activities not generally considered as hazardous showed a high risk of repeat accidents (e.g., public hygiene, and the manufacturing of bricks, pottery, and glass).ConclusionsThe epidemiological pattern of repeat accidents by economic activity reflects that of accidents in general, though with exceptions. Results suggest that factors associated with specific technical aspects and production processes are important determinants of safety. The differences between single accidents and repeat accidents by gender, age class, and severity of injury suggest that studying repeat accidents separately from first accidents is quite useful.